Second Shot

303 Comments

3:27PM

A quick breather as the temperature actually goes up tonight following the short-lived but very sharp shot of Arctic air. But another cold front will come charging across southeastern New England Friday morning from west to east, accompanied by strong wind gusts and snow showers with minor accumulation, but possibly enough to briefly slick-up some roads. By late Friday, we’re into the cold again, though not to the degree of which we just saw. The weekend will be dry and cold. The early and middle portion of next week continue to look cloudier and possibly unsettled as a series of low pressure areas try to get going to the south. It’s still very early, but the trend at this point is to keep them on the weak side and to the south, but close enough for some periods of snow/mix at least in southern and eastern areas of southern New England sometime during the Monday through Thursday period. You won’t find much detail in the extended portion of the outlook below due to the uncertainty in details and timing of low pressure waves.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures rising into the 20s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers crossing the region west to east during the morning, accumulating a coating to as much as 1 inch, except possibly a few amounts over 1 inch over central MA and interior southern NH. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs around 30 early then falling through the 20s. Wind SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 remote suburbs north and west of Boston, 10-15 elsewhere. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Low 10. High 30.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix South Coast. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow/mix possible. Lows 20-30. Highs 30-40.

303 thoughts on “Second Shot”

      1. Yeah, I thought the wind numbers looked a bit high.
        They err on the side of caution that’s for sure. I suppose
        they have to do that.

        With those winds, it could RAIN down there. 😀

        1. It’s possible. I’m going to wait until the 00z guidance for any last min back-offs, and if it still looks like a go, I’ll up my winds and add rain showers to the South Coast / Cape region.

    2. It’s still there, it’s just further east. I would rather not see a big hit this far out, because we all know what happens with those. The fact the models have something nearby is encouraging and at least gives us something to watch. I just want enough snow to cover the grass and I think that will be accomplished tomorrow and maybe added to slightly Monday night

  8. The answer to today’s trivia question is “B” – Wicked Cold.

    Brutal and extreme cold do not match our vernacular and “cold” means I can roll the garbage tote out without a jacket which did not apply today.

  9. Although the school and town won’t report it, one little child had frostbite and the bus had to pull over so the driver could do as much as possible to treat which made the bus late for other children on the route. I would bet there are others but one is one too many.

    1. Don’t really agree. Certainly that’s not good but accidents, mistakes, etc happen. I see this a lot in schools. One kid gets hurt playing something then no one can play that game ever again. I broke bones, got cut, and twisted things on and off school grounds. I have kids but I am very very against the culture with kids these days…you can’t protect them from everything. It’s not good to do that either. Anyway that’s my two cents! Hopefully not too many kids were in that boat. I got frostbite a few times and the thaw out can hurt a bit.

      1. That is the least of the concerns although this was easily avoidable. I would be surprised if you said you think kids should be on a bus that’s brakes could be compromised. True frostbite can affect the area for the rest of a persons life.

        1. There was a bus accident somewhere in the area today, i forget where, but i wonder if the cold weather was the cause.

            2. Ok, I’ll give an opinion on how she does giving a weather presentation ……

              There’s room for improvement.

          2. Minor accident ace but I believe a bunch of kids we’re transported for minor. I think the biggest thing was the poor kids were realy scared. Not weather related. That stinks.

        2. Ha no I am not that bad. I am finally old enough that I find myself thinking “back in my day…”

  11. Atlanta was 14 last night. A bit nippy for the south. Sister in law said lots of frozen pipes. Also son in law said more frozen pipes than his business could keep up with in this area.

      1. I think Boston is the US rep., if I understand it correctly. San Fran and LA, I guess the 2 favorites, are out.

        1. Oh wow, i did not know that. Do u know the other cities from other countries in line? I heard there was a leak Boston has a 75% chance

          1. So far, only rome has submitted a bid and evidently Germany and maybe France may submit. (from an article on ESPN)

            On ESPN Boston, Gordon Edes wrote an opinion piece on why he hopes Boston does NOT get the games.

    1. Neat !

      Pete B at 4pm had someone from Ogunquit also submitting similar photos.

      Funniest thing …..

      New news anchor on ch 7 and her co anchor is introducing her and she mentions that she and her husband and her cat Harvey just moved to Boston.

      It sounded like Pete chuckled in the background and this is going on as they are about to transition to the weather.

      So, they transition and Pete starts to talk and said something to the effect of …. “we cant talk too much about Harvey in the weather dept, we have a Harvey, he’s a good guy and a competitor from a weather dept on another station, etc” (something to this effect). It was all good natured.

      I was roaring, it was absolutely hilarious !!!

      2. I never watch channel 7.
        Tabloid tv. Most unprofessional channel
        Around. Channel 4 1st. Ch 5 next.

        2. I fully agree regarding the news department. Pete is a great on air guy though. He is a bit aggressive on his calls but he stands by them. I can respect that. He’s a friend on FB and once in a while I poke fun at him in a good-natured way. He always takes it with a smile. 🙂

        3. I agree re 7 as tabloid for news but it is open about it. Check any of BZs stories and you will find out it leaves out half the story to sensationalize. Five is slight step above

  14. Bad timing with that snow moving in for the morning commute for areas CT River Valley west. Its not the amount of the snow which is minor but timing is everything.

  15. Re: olympics for boston

    Although it would be nice, I think it would
    Cause horrific traffic problems. Give it to
    Some other city.

    1. As usual we agree. There is also a certain amount of hotel room space we need and we do not have it. Never mind parking.

  16. An olympics would be pretty sweet. We have some of the smartest people on the planet within 50 miles of where we all live. They’ll figure out how to do it right.

      1. Damn – I forgot about the corruption part. the optimist in me beat out the cynic for a minute. Well, nothing billions of borrowed dollars can’t paper over.

  17. Found it weird Pete made no mention of snow for tomorrow in his evening blog just went on about the wind.

        1. Perhaps bigger impact ???? ……

          Most snow would be N and W, but at 2 – 3 inches, it will be something to deal with, but something most should be able to handle, if applying some reasonable caution.

          But, the wind, if it verifies, could have some real impact.

  18. Those who live in or close to Boston or who work in Boston have a very different view on the Olympics than those who live further away and would not be affected. I agree, it would be “nice” and “cool” for the olympics to be in Boston, but when practicality and reality set in, it would be an absolute nightmare.

    1. Maybe they’d finally widen the Mass Pike to four or five lanes like it should have been 25 years ago. One can dream.

    2. There ya go. I dont care what minds you throw
      At it, even mine, can’t be done. TRAFFIC is
      A nightmare as is. The traffic lights
      Aren’t even synchronized in any way.
      Hit a red light. Wait 2 minutes. Drive 300 feet.
      Stop at next light. Repeat over and over
      Again until destination.

      I joke about my mind.

      1. It’s so true. I really believe they don’t care, especially in Cambridge. They think somehow it will force more people to walk,bike, or take public transportation. I don’t know who can afford to live in the city of Boston or Cambridge for that matter. I have a HH income of over 200k and I wouldn’t be able to afford it, unless I lived in a shoebox apartment and even then…

      2. It really is a freaking nightmare. Whether my flight out of logan is at 8am or 11am, doesn’t matter. Still need to leave by 5:30am.

  19. i for one thinks its a bad idea. yeah we could see a temporary benifit, but over the long term it will just cost us more money.

    1. Ha true. I would assume that they would start whatever construction years in advance. I use to work downtown but I am glad I left and haven’t looked back.

    1. Gotta love it. Ocean effect snow with Sw
      Wind!!!

      How often do you see that????

      Pretty amazing.

      Looks like the accumulating varaiety.

  24. Anyone take a peek st the hrrr for tomorroe
    E?
    Really sharp start to snow. It starts snd wham
    Right into the good stuff.

  26. i wish there would be a winter storm for saturday. that way i would actually be able to watch the Patriots game. Brother’s districts are on saturday from 2 to 6pm. have to suffer through chorus, orchestra and his senior districts… which he was in last year and the year before. Last also was conflicting with a game. So ANNOYED!

  27. Today:

    I wore 6 sweaters. Two hats. Leggings under pants. Gloves. Thick socks. Boots. A face mask. A bee keeper’s suit. Covered myself in duct tape. And painted my body with black paint.

    😀 Half true!

  28. Problem with any snowfall for the commute is that the pavement is so cold. The snow will stick and change to ice very quickly on untreated surfaces. 1-2″ isn’t much, but on super cold pavement right in AM commute can mean a lot of problems.

  37. Nice to have some light snow today. Looks like the majority of the morning commute within 128 will be fine. Anyone see the 0z Euro? It has the storm for late next week, albeit a bit too far inside for all snow, but it’s there. Also, what are we to make of the Monday/Tuesday event? I can’t really get a read on it

  39. Milder air just above the ground near the snow growth region as well as the system losing support as it moves in means 1 inch or less for all except from around I-495 northwestward in areas north of the Mass Pike which may see up to 2 inches.

    Still, will see briefly slick roads because of the cold ground and moderate snow rate, which will last 1 hour tops from when it begins, as moderate snow, before it tapers off and ends as lighter snow 2 to 3 hours after it starts.

    Summary. Quick start, right to moderate snow, about 1 hour’s worth, less than 1 inch except a bit more well NW of the city. Tapers to light snow and ends about 2 to 3 hours after the snow start time.

    Let me know where you are, your start and end time, and your amount, if possible.

    Thanks!

        2. Let me put it this way. Moderate snow threshold
          is roughly 1/2 mile visibility. That equates to about
          1 inch per hour. Heavy snow is roughly 1/4 mile visibility
          or less and that is more like 2 inch+ per hour.

          Of course there is everything in between.

  40. Good morning. It felt like a day at the beach when I headed 0ut earlier.
    Below Zero yesterday to mid 20s this morning. WOW!

    That is quite a quick THUMP of snow headed in here shortly. That’s going to come
    down. BUT, it won’t last long. It will look impressive for awhile for sure.

    Down the road. Conflicting information.

    Euro still has a storm for the 15th while GFS and CMC have variations of OTS.

    SO, who knows. We shall continue to watch.

    let’s see if we can squeeze 2 inches out of this one today. probably not and closer to
    1 inch. We shall see.

  41. TK that is exactly what happened here nothing at 6:30 AM then 15 minutes later as that moderate band moved in BAM went from nothing to moderate snow which has been coming down now for close to an hour.

  42. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    [742 am] Media reports 1.5″ of snow so far in Springfield with heavy snow falling.

  43. Just talked with a crew of plow drivers at dunkin and they are frustrated with what’s happenenig this winter, all non plow able snow events, and don’t see plow able or shovable snow event yet, good day 🙂

  44. Rhode Island EMA ‏@RhodeIslandEMA 2m2 minutes ago
    Drivers please be advised: Brief/intense snow fall expected to impact AM commute. Allow extra time to trave

  45. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    [8 am] Heavy snow across West/NorthCentral MA may result in localized 3 to 4 inch snow amounts. Expect hazardous travel. Snow ends by noon.

    Eric Fisher said this last night Or at least he tweated it.

    1. Yeah, snowing hard O.S.

      Drive in was a piece of cake in my Tacoma.

      As much as I love it out there I’m pissed that it’s not gonna last for twelve hours. Arghhhhhhhh!

  47. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are localized 3 4 inch amounts particularly up in elevation. Some towns in far northwest CT have 3 3.5 inches so far.

  48. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 8m8 minutes ago
    [807 am] Thanks for the report. RT @Skurko_wx: viewer report in Westhampton: 3.1″ new snow this morning

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 4m4 minutes ago
    Heavy snow has now arrived to Worcester. Briefly near white-out. 1″/hour burst. Roads deteriorate quickly.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 8m8 minutes ago
    Fitchburg MA has ramped up to heavy snow and 1/4 mi visibility – a pocket of 1″/hour snow that extends into Central Worcester County.

  49. On Radar it’s looking even HEAVIER, if that’s possible.

    Any chance as this moves Eastward, we get enhancement from the Ocean to our
    South and SouthWest??? Just wondering. This baby looks INTENSE!!!!

  50. Back edge of the snow in the Hudson River Valley right now.
    For those who have not seen the snow yet you COULD go from nothing to all of a sudden look at the window and its snowing at moderate clip. I know that what happend here 6:30 Am nothing then 15 minutes later BOOM!

  51. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    [825 am] Thanks. RT @TerryWBZ: Low visibility, heavy band of snow now in Fitchburg and Worcester, already 2.5″ reported in Gardner

    1. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 4m4 minutes ago
      David Majercik checks in with 3.1″ of snow in Westhampton MA and light snow now.

  54. I wonder …..

    I think the consensus is for around 23F or 24F tomorrow, but now this next cold airmass is going to have a bit more snowcover, at least in central and western New England, to be delivered across.

    I wonder if today’s snow is going to undercut tomorrow’s high temps 2, 3 or 4F. So, maybe closer to 19 or 20F ?

    Maybe a small impact on tonight’s low temps as well, a few degrees colder than projected …… ??

    1. I suppose it depends upon how much snow gets dropped on the area. BUT preliminary reports of 3+ inches off to the North and West certainly SUPPORT
      what you suggest. We shall see.

    2. I was thinking about this as well, but in a slightly different way. This will obviously have some impact on surface temps and in turn may affect our next two systems. Not in a major way, but sort of a butterfly effect whereby whatever the models were projecting, they will now have to adjust to the different conditions than they originally planned for i.e. a potentially different outcome.

  55. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 39s39 seconds ago
    [837 am] Block Island automated weather sensor has recently recorded a 59 mph wind gust!

      1. I’d love to see that by the way. Something I think of rarely but when I do, I’m bummed I never drive to the shore for storms.

    1. Wind picking up too. Nothing like along the coast of course but into the high teens. The sound of snow is in the air 🙂

  59. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 6s6 seconds ago
    [853 pm] Thanks for the report. MT @FaxAlertWeather: 2.5″ at my office in Burlington, CT.

  61. FIRST FLAKES here at the office in Roxbury.

    Also this just in:

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 38s38 seconds ago
    Worcester MA now up to 2.1″ per @AndrewLoconto. Thanks to all for your measurements & observations.

  62. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 28s28 seconds ago
    [9 am] Marthas Vineyard has recently gusted to 57 mph!

  63. Doesn’t look overly impressive on the radar. Been snowing in Lexington for about 30 minutes…very light and no build up at all.

  65. Been snowing for awhile in Wrentham, light to moderate but nothing too bad, expecting an inch or so, maybe a little more.

    1. Old Salty that moderate to heavy snow band as it moves further east toward you seems to have lost some of the punch
      that it had when it entered western parts of SNE. Almost like a line of thunderstorms in the summer time that weaken as
      they approach the east when there is a maritime influence.

  67. Amazing two different stories going on in SNE with snow which in some parts of SNE came in at the absolute worst possible time and the other is wind .

  68. Interesting

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    [907 am] Current temp at our office in Taunton is 27, while the airport 8 miles southeast of here is 38 degrees!

  70. Light to moderate snow in North Smithfield outside my office window. 1/2 – 3/4 inch thus far. Expecting an inch or two maximum. I think people are forgetting about the possibilities for Monday. It could be more sizeable than this event.

    1. Hello there stranger. WELCOME back. Great to see you here.

      Monday, eh? Sure? Not the way things have been going.
      Hope you are correct. 😀

        1. So far, NOT impressed with Monday Set up.
          Will check 12Z Guidance to see IF things improve some. 😀

    2. Welcome back arod. Al Roker was saying icing event for Monday and I was going to ask about it on here so glad you brought it up. Yes, I know it is Roker but thought it was worth asking 🙂

  71. Snow didnt start here in Walpole until around 9am, past morning rush for most. Snowing moderately with no accumulation yet

  72. Mission Church is 2/3 mile from my office Window. Can “just” barely make out
    the outline of the Church, therefore vis is about 2/3 mile now. Looking NICE.
    Everything is White out there now.

  75. Down to almost not snowing at all in Lexington…I know it’s not over yet but temporary lull I guess.

  76. Just does NOT want to get under 2/3 mile visibility here. NOT going to get the accumulation UNLESS it does. At his rate, an inch tops. 😀

    1. THERE! UNDER 2/3 mile vis now. Somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3.
      Borderline MODERATE SNOW now. 😀

  77. Went to let the dog out this morning and i couldn’t believe how warm it felt. I thought to myself, isn’t is supposed to snow this morning? There’s no way it’s cold enough to snow. The thermometer read 26 degrees. After yesterday morning, 26 felt like a heatwave. We will get a similar feeling when gas prices go back up…

    1. I had the EXACT same feeling. AMAZING how things are so relative and what one can get used to….. 😆

  79. Hey OS! I’ve been here. I just haven’t posted. You know me. I typically don’t post unless there is something to get excited about. Unfortunately, the way this winter has been going, it is easy to get excited about an event which could bring is a light to moderate snowfall. The setup for Monday is not classic but the potential is there for a more “sizeable” event relatively. Glad to be back! It’s fun when it snows!

    1. We are always happy to have you. I look forward to your thoughts on events and set ups. I’ll comment a bit more on Monday after reviewing some of the 12Z Guidance. As I said, not impressed at the moment. I hope you’re seeing
      something I am missing.

  80. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    RT @WX1BOX: Chappy Ferry Point – Edgartown, MA: 61 MPH Gust at 909 AM

  81. Nws tweet

    @NWSBoston: Please retweet! Heavy snow, gusty winds, poor visibility through 11 am from Boston to Providence. Hazardous travel.

  82. Visibility down to about the advertised 1/2 mile now. Definitely ACCUMULATING.
    “Should” make the 2 inch mark.

      1. Same here, snow is just not accumulating. Been snowing for an hour and there’s 1/4″ to maybe 1/2.” Another hour or less to go combined with the rest of this batch of snow being lighter than the initial burst, we’ll be lucky to reach 1″

  83. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 22s22 seconds ago
    Cranking over Cape/Islands RT @ACKweather: Things are flying! RT @capecodweather: 62 mph at Nantucket!

  84. Just went out and measured .5″ in Wrentham. The worst has passed us, just light stuff from here. All according to the forecast. We will likely fall a couple tenths short of an inch.

  85. .3 inch in Reading so far. Moderate snow.

    BTW if we end up with measurable snow Monday then this will be a case of GFS had it before Euro.

  86. Snow has ended where I am. 2 inches of snow in just over 3 hours.
    The bigger story here in CT was the impact it had on the morning commute. It wasn’t the amount but the timing was awful.
    TWO Potentials for wintry precipitation next week. Will see if any materializes.

  88. This has held together just enough to make it to Marshfield.

    Snow looks powdery, so, I guess we haven’t made it into the “mildness” seen on the Cape.

    Visibility is down to about a mile, we are under that shrinking green batch of echoes on the radar.

    Coating, but the roads are all covered up as well.

  90. Visibility continues to fluctuate from 1/2 up to 2/3 mile.
    So that translates to a heavier light snow to occasionally Moderate Snow. 😀

    2. Exactly as forecasted. Were u expecting a surprise? I dont think this will be the winter for surprises

          1. Some would argue 2 is plowable. It is an elusive number I have been trying to have pinned down for years.

            1. As im reading this, they are plowing this “inch” in my office parking lot, with the heavy duty national guard equipment too. What they just effectively did was create a sheet of shlice

    2. If we get a plowable snow in Boston on Monday, i will shovel my entire driveway with a garden spade

  101. ALL DONE.

    I’m on the 3rd floor. Hard to tell accumulation. Some where between 1/2 and 1 inch.
    I think 1 inch would be very generous.

    Big Woof!

  102. For the first time this winter looking out my window it actually looks like winter after 2 inches of snow. The sun is out bouncing right off the fresh snowpack.

    1. If the CMC shows rain for Monday we’ll probably end up with a Nor’easter with 2 foot snow drifts!

  107. I do not have the plow come until 3 inches, in cases like today. Still haven’t been plowed this season yet. 🙂

  108. You know how you can tell what is plowable. It depends on the budget. If there is alot of money left/beginning of the season. you sea salt trucks and plows out with 1 to 3 inches. If there not much money left, there will barely be any trucks or plows out… It all depends on the money

  109. about .6 of an inch fell with this…. this brings my total up to 7.8 inches for the season. Well below the norm up to this point.

  111. Blah blah blah

    re: Monday
    Don’t hold your breath, unless you want to believe the GFS 😆

    re: Next Thursday/Friday
    Ha ha ha hardy har har. He he he 😆 😆

    In short, GARBAGE CITY for now

    1. Euro is PRIMARILY OTS with this, fringing us with perhaps an inch or so
      of Snow. No rain.

      CMC is inside with RAIN. The GFS is just right with SNOW.

      My guess, OTS wins the day.

      SAME with the next one for the 15th/16th. SEE YA! Hope you like dumping on the fishes!!!!!

  113. I don’t know what the PLOWABLE standard is these days, but years ago the Boston DPW would start plowing streets at 3 inches.

    1. I agree. 3 inches used to be the norm, although on occasion I have seen
      it at 2 inches. It depends. I’d plow 2 inches of cement, but sand/salt
      2 inches of fluff.

  114. Both gfs and euro give kbos .25 precip and snow. 850 and surface temps are plenty cold. After that both gfs and euro agree on very dry pattern at this point. I could see monday being somewhere around 2-4 inches. More as we get it!!

    1. Maybe and maybe this little system passes harmlessly ots.

      One thing seems almost certain, Monday will be the last shot
      for some time. Here’s hoping that it is the Sneaky Snow Storm!

        1. Place in front the character “” Then type what
          you want in Bold followed by character “”

          For ITALICS, same thing only with the letter “I”
          If you want both use “BI” or “IB”.

          So it looks like: “” Text “ except WITHOUT
          the quotes.

  115. Ended up with a solid inch here in Wrentham, perhaps slightly over. The system got a bit of a second wind after that first burst. All about as expected though.

    I think 1-3″ snow region-wide Monday. Don’t think it goes south of us. Also possible it comes far enough north to cause P-type issues. Slight chance it could surprise us with some higher totals. Next Thursday is interesting too, that storm system could certainly be much more significant, but right now looks like it stays south.

  116. all signs looking as if that late week system originally going to go up the coast goes way out to sea. The closest two is the gfs par (cough it sucks) and the JMA that has a 988 low pressure just south of the bench mark

    1. JMA model can certainly be trusted. Take it to the bank. 😆 😆

      Things can change, but right now NOT looking good.

    1. It’s just that it’s been so bad. You know go with the trend.
      Sure things could change. We shall see.

      Any thoughts on Game Time Temperature at Gillette tomorrow?

  118. I agree with you with the trend. Wishful thinking the trend could be broken sooner rather than later.
    I think low 20s for kickoff. Patroits will win but closer than a lot of people think.

  119. No matter what happens this winter it’s nothing like 2011-2012. Rivers and lakes are frozen over. We will be plowing big time in Feb, if not I will buy a round next time we have a get together.

  120. On another note: It is January 9th
    Water Temperatures at the 2 buoys off shore are around 43 Degrees.

    Should be in the upper 30s by this date.

  123. Pete says a couple inches for Monday and the Thursday/Friday storm GONE.

    I find it interesting how snow events go POOF after a few model runs, but inside runners get stronger with time, if anything. 😀

    1. From the Taunton NWS discussion regarding the late week storm:

      THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY AT MID-PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND WILL NOT REACH THE PACIFIC COAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY

      In other words, we need at least another two days, probably more, before we have any idea what that will do.

      To your point about model trends though: I know TK has said in the past that storms are equal opportunity hitters and missers. I just don’t believe it though. I think you’re right about inside runners; they never, ever, seem to trend towards anything but inside runners. But I’ve seen lots of initially modeled offshore storms turn into big hits for us (maybe next Thursday?), and we’ve all seen a lot of storms initially modeled as hits trend in either direction. But inside runners just never change. When you see one of those on a model, it seems to be the kiss of death. Lock it in, it’s coming. Maybe it’s all in our heads though 😀

      2. It’s all in your heads, trust me. What would be the explanation if you were in Burlington VT, Washington DC, or somewhere in the Great Lakes?

        Snow lovers just remember when snow threats don’t pan out because it frustrates most of them more. Also, media tends to start talking about snow threats far too soon. It’s the “thing to do”. Of COURSE more seem to miss only because if you start talking about something a couple days sooner than you would when there is no snow threat, your forecast error is likely to be much larger.

        That’s what is really going on. 🙂

  124. Ok! Forecast worked out well today, timing, snow amounts, and the clearing, which for some reason the NWS did not go for. They kept it mostly cloudy into tonight. I’ve never been too sure where they come up with their sky condition forecasts because they are not good at all the majority of the time.

    Cold night! Cold weekend but not as cold as the first Arctic shot. This is not a surprise as the second shot was known to be less potent. But we will still feel the chill through the weekend. Cold Pats game! But we also know it could be much worse.

    I think next week will be “milder” but not overly warm. Current feeling is that we’ll have to watch for lots of cloudiness but not so much storminess. That said, there will be a shot at something late Monday, but it looks minor and biased toward the South Coast. But 3 days off so will monitor.

    I also don’t see anything after that materializing into a snowstorm threat for SNE through the rest of next week and carrying forward into the week after that. Pattern change around January 24/25, then we start talking about snow threats for 6 weeks.

  125. Saw a TV Met create a snow map of up to 12″ for Monday based on the 00z ECMWF called it an early projection for Monday’s snowfall potential.

  126. It seems like so many people have lost sight of how great an event the Olgmpics are. I think there is a value to the games beyond how much they cost. If the price is the only issue, then we might as well just put an end to it.

    1. I have found it interesting watching the feedback locally, in the last 24 hrs, to Boston being selected as the US rep.

    2. I agree.
      The undertaking is going to obviously cost money and cause some inconveniences, but doesn’t it seem these days that so many people seem so put off and downright offended if they have to make an adjustment to a road they drive to work, or park somewhere different? I realize that the Olympics are not THAT simple, but my goodness if we would just think as a group in an unselfish manner we could actually pull something like this off and do it really well. 🙂

        1. That’s all well and good, but do either of you live in the City? How often do either of you come into the City.

          I live here. I do NOT want this. Do NOT NOT NOT NOT want this. Not now Not ever!!!

          No that you know my thoughts, Do have an enjoyable evening all. We are off to dinner. 😀

          GAME TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!1

          2. Maybe we could do a house swap for the 3 weeks or so. Then I can be in town to see the games, and you can enjoy the peace and quiet of central mass!

            1. If we are house swapping, I have dibs on Toms 🙂

              I have been agonizing over Olympics. I am a believer that what will be is meant to be. I was really worried about the Olympics in Boston. A very wise person has me seeing things a bit differently. Our city has so much to share ….history for one. We are where it all started. But strength. And brilliance ….people come here to learn and to heal. You cannot walk in the city without feeling it. We could show the world the best Olympics ever. Can you imagine seeing the Olympic flag flying over our city

              Good grief….I think I found a new cause …

  127. I’m not sure where I’m going with this ….

    The -2F reading at Logan got me thinking about how far below that value was from the year’s coldest avg low …

    It took me in another direction when I looked at the data ….

    Ok, Logan’s coldest avg low is 21.6F and its warmest avg high is 82.8F.

    15 times, at least according to Taunton’s data, Logan has been at -10F or colder.

    So, 15 times, Logan has seen a low temp that is more than 30F colder than the lowest avg temp of the year.

    In contrast, Logan’s highest temp is apparently 104F, which is a mere 21.2F above the warmest avg temp of the year.

    So, as far as extreme temps, at Logan anyway, it seems Logan experiences colder extreme temps than warmer extreme temps. Maybe just the ocean, Great Lakes, etc …. tempering the warmer extremes ???

  128. Patriots game.
    going to be a good game that i will probably miss a good part of due to my brothers concert 🙁 🙁 so thats one thing going against the patriots. when Im home sitting in my seat with my patriot hat , mug and football near by. Patriots won every game. When i was not. they were 2-2.

    What to watch for.
    running game. I do not think anyone will have more than 80 yards (Per Person)
    Ravens. Defense gets to brady up to 4 times several 3 and outs
    Patriots defense. gets to flacco up to 3 times but also have interceptions and fumble recoveries. expecially in the second half.
    Ravens offense. Look for them to use the middle of the field as the smiths do not do as much. Browner is beat a few times by one of the smiths. There are also a few pentalites thrown
    Patriots offense.
    that o-line.. The line that protected brady so well durring the middle of the season is now back and healthy. So look for an improvement. even when the ravens defense gets to brady it would be better than if they were banged up.
    Tangem of Reveen, Blount and Grey. Like I said won’t be that much of a factor besides for opening recievers. watch for a few big runs.
    Receivers. Look for all the targets to see action.
    It will not be the offense that wins this game.

  129. Quick comment on game: pats need to play 4 great quarters not good great, need to come out with no injuries, and one hell of a coaching game plan. This game will finish realy close between 7-3 point league . I think a classic dog fight type game. Can’t have penalties going against you , so my pick, I’m taking the pats in a squeaker type game maybe by 7. If pats loose this one lots of atacking on them that they can’t get it done in the playoffs. It doesn’t matter what you did or didn’t do in the regular season as looser goes home and winner continues. I believe if the pats play 4 they win. A second half ball club can’t move on in my view. Go pats!!!!

    1. Last Sunday, I was panicked.

      Having a week to think about this …..

      Pats have the best tight end and the best cover corner in the league.

      They are home, have a really good QB, a good offensive scheme and an opportunistic defense.

      38 – 13 Patriots over the Ravens.

      These aren’t the 2009, 2011 or 2012 Ravens. They needed the Chargers to lose to get into the playoffs and I take nothing from their win in Pittsburgh last week. Pittsburgh suddenly lost their MVP in LeVeon Bell, of course they were easier to beat.

      1. They remind me of a slumping Yankees team making the playoffs in Baltimore. But one they get there they bring there A game. I would love that score and hope you are right. I do think the pats have the team to go and win it all. Barring they play an entire game and a key must no injuries !!!!!!

  130. on the 18z, it looks like there’s a weak low with a weak front that’s gonna boot that sucker right outta here. arghhhhh!!!

      1. I’d love to see Carlton try to hit a baseball from the 40 yard line through the uprights. 😀

  132. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    A Wind Chill Warning is issued when the wind chill is forecast to be

    A. -10 degrees or lower
    B. -15 degrees or lower
    C. -20 degrees or lower
    D. -25 degrees or lower

    Not sure I got this question exactly right. I also managed to get the answer one wrong. Answer later today.

  133. what happened to the GFS overnight? Now it has mix to snow!??? If this ends up inside after all of this cold, I’m gonna be ripping.

  134. Today’s 2nd Accuweather Trivia Quiz.

    What are the clouds that are highest in the atmosphere?

    A. Cirrus
    B. Stratus
    C. Cumulus
    D. Cumulonimbus

    Answer later today.

    1. It show back-end on Thursday too which also pisses me off because you know that won’t add up to S**T. We need to see how cranky O.S. is on that run LOL.

  136. The glorified dustings we’ve had of late have put down a 3″ snow cover at my house. At least the tips of the grass aren’t visible anymore.

  137. Struck by the consistency in today’s 00z GEFS and 00z ECMWF ENS. Are they identical no? But in general their pattern trends and sensible weather impacts for the NE USA are in near lock step. Rare that I see this. Generally a 0.1-.25QPF snow or mix event Monday, a low ejecting off the SE US coast on Thursday passing harmlessly out to sea well south of the area and then a return to a zonal flow with pacific air streaming west to east across the northern US, allowing for a return to milder conditions than those of recent days.

    I would trend towards a later onset for Monday’s light precip event, as lot of dry air to overcome for the over running WAA precip, and if you remove the outlier GGEM, a nice 00z ECMWF/GFS/NAM consensus of 0.1-0.25 QPF with support from the mean of the ECMWF ENS/GEFS/SREF means. Due to a dry cold air in place and sometime needed to overcome it, I would trend a bit colder though and in those borderline areas between mix and snow would go snow in those places. General 1-2″ event with some 3″ amounts possible.

      1. Thanks TK. I was out of town for a chunk of the week. So missed most of the “extreme” weather. Did read your thoughts and forecasts and you had a phenomenal week of prognostication!

        Yesterday, I got home home in time to see the up to 12″ snow map for Monday from a TV Met and knew my work was done… Ha!

        1. Thank you!

          I’ve even seen those maps posted by those I did not expect would post them. It’s getting worse on air instead of better. Bleh! Oh well. At least we can attempt to be voices of reason for however small an audience is out here reading. 😉

          1. What drives me nuts is they show the map and then say “I am not saying this is my forecast, but this is what model we use is showing for snowfall on Monday. Other models show lesser amounts.” Yeah but in a visual world people see the big amounts on screen and assume that is the forecast for 72 hours from now. Also if other models are showing lesser amounts then why didn’t you choose to show those instead? Oh, wait, that wouldn’t be as “extreme” would it? And all things must be EXTREME and UNPRECEDENTED!

  138. 24-20 Patriots today. It will be a very entertaining game.
    I will root big time for Carolina tonight so the Cowboys win tomorrow they will be home for the NFC Championship game next Sunday.

      1. Vicki as a Cowboys fan you don’t want to go to Seattle and play there. I know they won in Seattle earlier this season
        but this is a different Seattle team that is much healthier and playing a lot better.

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