Sunday Morning Update

115 Comments

7:33AM

Good morning all! Forecast looks fine so far, so here’s a short little update. We will see patchy high cloudiness today that will filter the sun at times as it turns a little warmer aloft, but down here at the surface it starts out quite cold after a triple-C night and recovers back toward 30 by late day as a southwest wind gets going. This southwest flow will actually allow temperatures to rise tonight as clouds move in ahead of a low pressure wave and approaching cold front. The front passes through during Monday and the low pressure wave passes south of southern New England, but it will be a weak combination of systems with limited moisture, mild enough for rain ending as a mix of rain/snow Cape Cod, Islands, and immediate South Coast of MA and RI, a mix of rain/sleet/snow ending as snow elsewhere south of Boston, maybe some brief mix around Boston going to snow, and snow elsewhere to the west and north. But this precipitation will be patchy and on the light side, so look for very small accumulation where the frozen stuff falls, on the order of less than 1 inch, except possibly a little over 1 inch from near I-495 westward in the region north of the Mass Pike, if the system delivers enough moisture.

Beyond that, cold air gets pulled in a little stronger Tuesday and hangs around at midweek as low pressure develops off the East Coast again but stays south and east of New England later Thursday into Friday, pulling down one more shot of cold air on Friday into Saturday before a moderation arrives later Saturday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high cloudiness. Temperatures rise toward 30 by late. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures rise to 30-35 except 35-40 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain to mix south, mix to snow north. See above for accumulation. Highs 35-40 early then cooling slowly to 30-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then N to NW.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Temperatures steady in 20s during day.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 30.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 35.

115 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  3. Good morning all. I have a stress headache this morning!! haha.

    TK, I told my brother who plows for a living that Jan. would be cold and dry based on your call weeks and weeks ago. Bolstered by JMA. He was like, how do you know…..

    Good call.

    He’s not happy as you can imagine but what can you do.

    1. And now there are signs of a giant high pressure area coming down from Canada around MLK Jr. Day with another period of dry chill.

        1. Yes because it was all part of the cold/dry January pattern. There was only one period of uncertainty when I thought the December pattern was going to persist well into January because MJO was NOT behaving as forecast, but it started to listen. 😉

  5. Well I got the Bruins prediction wrong yesterday, MUCH to my liking. They were impressive down in Philly.

    Got both football games right yesterday, so I’ll take it.

    Today’s winners: Both road teams. Believe it.

    1. I agree with your football picks for today. I actually had Pats/Cowboys Superbowl before prediction early in the season.

      1. I think both home teams SHOULD be able to win, but cocky seems to be the thing in the NFL lately, with most teams anyway. Ravens, as usual, more trash talk then their opponent, taunting, etc. They got so preoccupied with the “in your face” thing when they were up by 14 on 2 occasions that they forgot there was still time left in the game and got burned, big time. If they stayed with their solid ability, they could very well have walked out of Foxboro with a victory.

  7. What’s this?

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 2h2 hours ago Massachusetts, US
    6z GFS always entertaining.. no longer has Fri nor’easter hitting New Eng. Latest fun is the kibosh it puts on Jan Thaw, w Back door Jan 19

    1. There was NEVER a threat of a “nor’easter” on Friday.
      That low is likely to end up closer to Bermuda than Cape Cod! One of the reasons that some of these guys jump the gun and have to back track is that they pay attention to questionable model runs days ahead of an event instead of using sensible meteorology, of which they are quite capable. It’s a choice, described nicely by a post JMA made yesterday.

      But yes there will be a high in Canada that may push a front down here around next Monday that at least interrupts the warming trend for a couple days, until a Lakes Cutter warms us up again before the pattern finally starts to shift. Not 100% sure how this works out yet – watching it.

  8. Thanks tk 🙂

    Looking like a january thaw this week which I will take 🙂 also it appears this week is relatively quiet, a little rain tommorrow 🙂
    Still a light coating of snow but I suspect after today it will be patchy, enjoy the day!! Go Patriots!!

    1. Actually the “thaw” may be limited to next Sunday, which happens to be the day I’m taking down all the outside Christmas lights, cords, wreaths, etc. 😀 Ground will be bare. And I may even do a little yard work to get up some leaves that sneaked in since I cleaned up in November.

  11. I see the Ravens are crying over being tricked by a play the Pats ran yesterday. What took them so long? 😉

    The amount of comments I read saying that “the game was fixed” and “they only won because of the refs” is astounding. Even more than usual. No. Sorry. The Ravens, who are a great team in their own right, were beaten by a better team. Period. There were questionable calls on both sides. There are ALWAYS questionable calls. The NFL is not trying to set up a Pats/Cowboys Super Bowl, trust me. It will be whatever it ends up.

    In case you want to read more about Jim Crybaughby’s gripe and Tom’s response: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2015/01/ravens_fume_over_patriots_trick_move_on_ineligible

    1. Lol! Out coached and they need to learn the rules, Ik what they were trying to do the min they pulled Kline 🙂

    2. TK with due respect….all of the teams are great at this level. The refs …not so much. They have been really bad. So either fixed or they need to fire them. The cowboys may have been given a gift last week but they just lost the game thanks to them too. There is too much inconsistency. They don’t even know what a PI is or how to call it.

      As far as the illegal claim….it was a legal play.

      1. I retract. The ball hit the ground and it was a legit call. That does not negate the bad reffing we have seen. No excuse at this level.

  12. TK I saw your prediction about both road teams winning. I hope your right.
    We need to get pressure on Rogers and force to move around on that bad calf. In addition run game has to be on as well as offense. Keep Rogers off the field as much as Possible.
    Vicki game is a 1pm on FOX

  13. I really do think the guys over at NWS are great guys and excellent forecasters, but I still can’t figure out the issue there with sky condition forecasts. Are they conditioned to look so far into the future that they forget that there is a day 1, 2, and 3?

    Back on Friday we were talking about how today would feature filtered sun with lots of high cloudiness as mild air came in aloft. They called for sunny. But today, this morning, the forecasts on the NWS page were still saying “Today: Sunny. (etc)” .. They finally fixed that in the last hour. Short term forecasting. It’s more important than anything beyond day 3.

  14. I have heat!!!
    The ignition transformer let go. Service tech states it was unrelated to Wednesday’s tune-up and Friday’s repair for oil leak resulting from bleeder valve left lose during tune-up. I don’t know enough about oil burners to agree or disagree. I’m just happy the house is now at 68 degrees and have a maintenance contract on the system!

  16. Been looking down the road a bit. Things are starting to line up to support the forecast for a milder and somewhat more snowy period heading into February. More later…

    Today is the final big indoor de-decorating day. Saving the outside stuff for a mild Sunday next weekend. 🙂

    1. I still have a hard time with “milder & snowy” in the same context. It is natural to think “cold & snowy”. Of course with all this recent cold, it has hardly been “snowy”. If anything, we are still under the gun for more Great Lakes Cutters in spite of the arctic cold. Hopefully when your forecast actually materializes next month, I will be able to better understand. 🙂

      Thanks as always TK! 🙂

    2. O boy I don’t want to think of Feb just yet, meetings and seminars for the season ahead begins 🙁

  17. Regarding today’s Colts-Broncos game, I prefer to face the Broncos next Sunday. Even if the Colts pull the upset it won’t be much of an advantage anyway since temps are going to be in the 30’s. I suspect Andew Luck & Co. can handle those temps. The Patriots would still have to play well.

  18. If I am a Patriots fan I would want to face Indy. You take away Andrew Luck its not a good football team.
    Just like last week Cowboys trailing early on.

    1. The Cowboys scare me the most …..

      Try to picture the Patriots getting a pass rush against that offensive line.

      Bad, bad matchup for the Patriots.

      Yes, Seattle’s D is nasty, but, I think you can beat them by scoring “only” somewhere around 20-23 pts.

      I suppose the Pats need to win next week first to worry about this. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. I fear Seattle more than I do any of the remaining AFC teams. First thins is first we need to beat the Packers and were up 14-7 right now.

  22. After doing a bit of research, I discovered that Dallas could have played in the first two Super Bowls but Green Bay beat them in both NFL Championship games.

    Did you know about that Jimmy?

  23. I didn’t know that Philip. Thanks for sharing that.
    Cowboys season over. It was a great season and they were a lot better than I thought this season. Hopefully will be right back here next season and get a step closer to Super Bowl.

  24. Sorry JJ but being a Skins fan I was happy to see them lose. Sad for you though but a great season nonetheless. Pundits had them at 5-11 before the season started so I would say it was a terrific season

  26. Pats don’t need to fear anybody. All they need to do is respect and prepare. If they do that and then execute, they’ll be fine.

  27. I thought I has heard that the snow wouldn’t start until after commute. Four says during but is a bit confusing in the forecast. I think she meant further west but then said icing here. Can anyone be a bit more specific about timing and snow vs ice? Thank you?

  28. I heard west first and I think they also get the bulk of it . I heard in Boston betwenn 7-8. I’ll watch 5 at 6 cause they always know.

      2. Temps will be in the mid-40s next Sunday…even a dome team can handle that. Patriots had better work on some things this week in practice to say the least.

    1. They can’t be taking lightly. And yes Philip they better bust there ass this week cause they do have a lot to work out in my view of things.

  32. Do I see some ridging taking place by the weekend? Is it a temporary January thaw? Or, more ominously for winter lovers, another pattern change to bring us back to mild weather with no snow chances? Interesting winter thus far, but not one I’d write home about.

    Dez Bryant is both a jerk and a magician wide-receiver. I do not think that his catch should have been reversed. I was rooting for Green Bay, but really felt the Cowboys got robbed. Plus, I feel that generally the NFL is overdoing it with constant reviews, stoppages in play, strange call reversals, conferencing of officials. This is NOT a nuclear arms negotiation. It is a game. We do not have to dot the i’s and cross the t’s to the point where it all becomes an un-watchable maze of rules (that are often inconsistently applied, or simply inconsistent). Bring back the time when there were no challenges, booth reviews, etc … And also far fewer pass interference, illegal use of hands, and defensive holding calls. I mean it. I’m really tired of the way the sport is trending. I realize America still loves the game, but games are getting longer and longer with more stoppages than ever before, and if I see another Bud Light or Dodge Ram commercial I’m going to blow a fuse.

  34. Now its the offseason for my team. First thing get a new contract for Jason Garrett. Then its going to be interesting what they decide to do with Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant who are free agents. We need to draft a pass rusher on defense.

  35. So, next week …

    The game IN Seattle starts at ……………… 3pm

    and, the game on the EAST coast, starts at …………… 6:30pm

  37. I am happy with the upcoming weather ….

    No forseeable below zero at night, 15F by day cold.

    Also, its pretty nice when you can look at a full workweek in January and be pretty sure that snow wont be a major interrupter.

      1. As long as I have been watching football for over 20 years now the AFC and NFC championship games have always
        flipped every year. Next year AFC Championship will be first then NFC Championship.

        1. Thanks JJ. Sorry again about the Cowboys as if pats loose next week I’ll be bummed. I know it’s tough to say well they had a good year when they reach the playoffs and loose, we no that feeling here with the pats in the past.

            1. John I thought so too but it was close. On the whole the officiating stunk for these games. There is no excuse for that IMHO. On that I believe we agree.

  40. Question for TK. I have read the the European has forecasted the MJO to move in to phase 6. Is this true, if so is that bad for snow in the east.?

  41. John I am disappointed they lost. On the other they did far better than I or any Cowboys fan expected. They won the NFC East and made it to the second round of playoffs. The thinking going into the season was 5 6 wins tops.
    They need first give Garrett a new contract. Draft a pass rusher on defense in draft. Hopefully they will be able to resign Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant.

    1. Really? They won’t win for another 20 yrs with that coach and qb, I’ve talked to some friends and there fed up with the clown show down there the last 20yrs 🙂

  42. Vicki… I’ll double check the 00z runs but so far I think 5AM to 7AM for first precip. It’s not going to be that much of a solid area, just patches of mix. At this point I’m on the fence about which way we trend in p-type. Still think by late day it’s cold enough to snow, but the thing is, it may be all gone before then!

    This thing ended up a little faster than I gave it credit for. 😛

    1. Sooo appreciate you letting me and all of us know. Tough timing. Will hope it is not ice. Thank you TK!

  44. COLTS WIN 🙂 honestly my second favorite team after the patriots. I have already said, If the patriots did not make it to the superbowl i would want the colts with andrew luck to make it. Just i hope its not at the patriots expense this coming weekend…. AND IS IT TO HARD TO ASK FOR GOOD REFS!! and IS IT TO MUCH TO ASK FOR A GOOD SNOW STORM!!!

  45. John as many can you tell who are friends with me on Facebook, they will back me up that I was cheering for the Pats yesterday. I will be cheering for the Pats this week.

    I do think it would be cool to see Luck vs.Wikson in super bowl. But that wouldn’t change my support for the Pats.

    1. I believe that you were rooting for the Pats. I know you are not BB’s biggest fan but it was clear who you wanted to win yesterday’s game. 🙂

  46. FYI the ruling in the Cowboys/Packers game was the correct call based on the rules. The competion committee can change the rule this offseason. The rule sucks imo but it is the correct call.

  47. Also believe that Manning just can’t throw the deep ball anymore. Either he is injured or his age is catching up with him.

        1. Holden. And yup. I don’t know what the technology was back in the 70’s and 80’s was when I went to school to manage this but maybe we should go back to it. I’ll remember next time the town wants to raise my taxes. Maybe they should buy some old busses for ten cents on the dollar.

          1. Almost seems like they use any excuse for a snow day…like they have so many and want to use them instead of the opposite.

  53. Sorry for the delay but the blog is now updated!

    Busy day, work then a doc appointment. I’ll check in when I can.

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