7:35AM
Sorry for the late post…
It’s one and done. Done minor storm system today and we’re done with unsettled weather for the week. The combination of an approaching cold front from the northwest and a wave of low pressure passing south of New England will produce a variety of light precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) today. This exits tonight and then a push of cold air arrives from Canada on a gusty northwest wind Tuesday. High pressure hangs around with dry and cold weather Thursday and keeps another storm to the south and east of the region Thursday and Friday, with one cold air renewal at the end of the week before it starts to turn milder over the weekend, especially Sunday, when we get into a west southwest flow and milder air mass between low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure which will then be centered to the south.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Episodes of precipitation, mainly mix to rain south of Boston, snow and sleet with pockets of freezing rain to the north, trending to be patchy light rain most areas with mix further northwest this afternoon. Many times it may not be precipitating at all. Little in the way of any snow and sleet accumulation where that occurs. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Mix ends as snow northwest to southeast with minor accumulation possible. Watch for icy spots forming on untreated surfaces. Lows in the 20s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clearing morning. Sunny afternoon. However there will be ocean clouds from the north with snow flurries from Plymouth to Cape Cod. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
Thank you TK. Good luck at dr appt
Started sleeting here decently
I’m wondering if Boston gets closet to that 1 inch tonight on the backside of this system. Won’t see anything but rain now.
Thanks TK and good morning.
Light rain broke out about 20-25 minutes ago mixed with a little bit of sleet.
I knew it wasn’t going to snow today. It was never in the cards.
Not much interesting happening, that’s for sure.
Whats your thinking on back end precip tonight for boston . Tempature is going to drop as tonight is very cold.
I don’t see much on the back end. There “may” be a brief period of snow
as the colder air moves in, assuming there is any moisture left at that time. 😀
This HRRR total snow map for today yields up to 0.1 inch of snow for boston.
That about sums it up. Will continue to monitor for changes.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011211/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
Back end snows rarely occur. 95% of the time even when it’s forecssted it doesn’t come to fruition.
John not sure if you saw my response last night but I was cheering for the Pats and will be.
Yes retrac I agree, school cancellations for 1-3 inches is the norm. People think it was the same back in the day, not a chance, I can remember the custodian shoveling a path for us kids to stand in waiting for the bus at 11, was it right? Idk they cancel school now when its to cold, but anyone that thinks it hasn’t changed is lieing to themselves. It’s called scare tactics, good day 🙂
Thanks TK :):)
36.4 degrees, feels like rain
Next “possible” chance at anything would be on or about 1/21.
Initially it looked like a Cutter, but recent runs have it a bit more
to the East with a possible coastal, so We’ll have to watch. They way it
has gone all Winter, it will most likely do:
1. Inside runner or cutter
2. Not happen at all
OTS is probably not in the cards with this one.
Nice Pats Game recap here:
http://thornography.weei.com/sports/boston/2015/01/11/knee-jerk-reactions-to-the-divisional-round-playoff-patriots-vs-ravens/
AWESOME!!
Thanks TK!
Thanks TK.
After today BORING weather but at least I could get my car washed.
Jim Cantore retweeted
Brad Panovich @wxbrad 3m3 minutes ago
Where computing resources are placed –>
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7KR33xCEAAazdV.png
I would like to know more regarding the MJO going to a phase six and how that would not be good for snow.
Associated with “Pineapple Express”. Pacific Jet.
West Coast Storminess and Warmer weather here.
Ryan Maue retweeted
Brad Panovich @wxbrad 7m7 minutes ago
Biggest improvement to the higher resolution GFS won’t be felt for a year as the physics get tweaked. #wxcs2015
But you the loyal readers of WHW were already in the know on this from January 4th when I wrote the scheduled implementation for January 7th was delayed until January 15th and that there would most likely be another delay, as the upgraded GFS was a mess, and sure enough 3 days before the 15th we now have a long delay to “tweak the physics” code for significant reprogramming…we are all better off with the GFS as is than the mess that is currently the “upgrade.”
You bet.
So, I’m wondering IF they will continue to run this
piece of Crap While they are “Tweaking” it.
Who did they get to code this thing? A Bunch of High School drop outs? To code this thing properly is a mammoth undertaking and should only be done by the brightest minds around. Preferably, PHD Atmospheric physicists that simultaneously posses expert coding skills.
NCEP MDL Science and Technology is a massive operation with some very smart PhD type programmers and scientists, outside contractors, and hired firms as well, and no one is purposely trying to produce crap work, but due to an overwhelming bureaucracy, flush with mid and high level managers and executives and thousands of pages of protocols and processes, the ability to effectively work in an efficient manner has been greatly dulled for the several hundred people who are assigned to this project and many, many smart people and great workers have left NCEP during the last five years for this very reason.
Thanks JMA for that information.
That figures. I DO hope they can straighten it out.
Would be nice to have an improved high resolution GFS that is actually an improvement.
Retrac in regards to the cancellation…It started as a delay, but was later cancelled around 7:15. I think there is another reason for this…Read on. http://www.telegram.com/article/20150112/NEWS/301129781/1116
They were aware of this on Friday, but didn’t notify elementary parents(only middle school even though both schools are attached…) until this morning at 7:00 a.m. Parents are not happy and that is all I will say at this point…
Yeah, I saw that and don’t know what to make of it. All I know is the roads were wet when a two-four delay was called….then a cancellation. And I’m a town away and in a different school.
Wow. As a parent that would be upsetting. I thought there might be another reason. Schools take hits from parents when they cancel. They always have but with social media it has gone to a whole new level. Parents are part to blame for making them hesitant IMHO.
In this case it is upsetting the elementary parents weren’t notified until this morning at 7:00. The schools are attached for crying out loud! I’m already out the door by that time. Then a cancellation occurs at 7:15. Seems like an opporunity was taken to blame on the weather “hint” “hint”.
Bizarre. And I still don’t get how that affects the Holden Middle School. Unless because it was in Sterling, it affects the regional high school then trickles down from there. I can’t figure it out.
It was snowing real hard at like 6:00 am but it didn’t last.
It doesn’t really, but I think they got caught if you know what I mean as the info was spreading this morning and a lot of calls were made…As you know it is regional so all schools will be cancelled.
I hear you. My wife is a school-based counselor and even she was like huh?
Understood, Scott. I would be furious as well. I can imagine most teachers were already at or close to the school.
BTW I include myself in being part of the problem. I do complain online. However, I also call the superintendent’s office directly and always have.
Luck is good, but prone to interceptions. I think the Patriots pick off at least 3 on Sunday. Very good QB, but still not a great decision-maker. That may come later in his career. We shall see. I think the Patriots run the ball a lot on Sunday. The Colts are not great on rush defense. In a nutshell, unlike the Ravens, the Colts do not pose much of a threat to the Patriots. I predict an easy victory for the Patriots: 34-20.
So, the cold snap since last week has produced all of about 1 inch of snow in Boston. That is pretty pathetic. Just not a snowy winter. I drove out to Albany on Saturday. the Berkshires have a fair amount of snow. My guess would be around a 6 inch base in the higher elevations. Albany had more snow than Boston, but not much more.
Agree.
Pats “Should” be Super Bowl bound.
I say “Should”.
You know the trite saying: “On any Given Sunday…”
😀
Hard to believe we’re going back to a zonal flow starting on Sunday. That is depressing, in my view.
PukeApple Express. 😀
Four years ago on this date we were wrapping up a Noreaster that started on the evening of the 11th. It produced the biggest snowfall for inland CT with 24 inches of snow. This was all part of that 6 week stretch which was storm after storm. Its amazing how much snow fell in that stretch.
We won’t see that again any time soon.
You don’t know that for sure. I’m betting you’ll be happy by the end of next month
I seriously doubt it. And I DO mean that.
who says that could not happen in february 😉
Sitting in car waiting for mac at pt. Listening to rain on roof and singing a combo is Sedaka and Rabbbit……Sitting in car waiting for mac at pt. I love the sound of rain day or night.
I prefer the sound of snow. 😀
I did briefly hear the sound of sleet this morning.
Vicki to answer your question on the other blog I didn’t feel anything from 3.3 earthquake in Planfield this morning.
Last week in Planfield they had a 2.7 earthquake.
Have the Doggies been gaining too much weight and then thunder around
the track?
Interesting, JJ. I had not heard about the one last week.
Harvey Leonard @HarveyWCVB 13m13 minutes ago
Rain may mix with or change to sleet or snow AFTER evening commute, before ending late ton #Wcvb
Indeed thats why I asked the question this morning. Temp is going to
crash tonight.
Latest HRRR snowfall map
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011215/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
FWIW, NAM has ZERO snow at back end.
GFS has it changing to snow for a brief period of time.
Will continue to monitor.
Its not a surprise oldsalty as mets were advertising this since last night, tonight is when I think boston gets its D-1.
Who said it was a surprise?
Thankfully no damage with those earthquakes less than a week apart in Planfield, CT
Kimmirut (Nunavut , Canada) is really cold: -33C (-28F); with a wind-chill of -42C (-42F).
That would be a refreshing morning jog. Wonder if schools are cancelled up there … Not.
http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446
It’s pouring out!
I was thinking the same as I came back from lunch.
Vicki: You have such a wonderfully positive attitude (just one example; you like the sound of rain drops bouncing off your car). I admire that in a person. I must admit, I don’t have nearly as positive an outlook, but envy those who do.
More QPF down the drain this afternoon. 😥
What do you mean
I mean it’s NOT SNOWING!!!! 😀
Tonight oldsalty when it gets colder look again for some back end precipitation.
Not much
Wind still SOUTH at ALBANY.
Going to be a LONG time before a wind shift and colder air arrives. I don’t think we see so much as a flake in Boston tonight.
Well, maybe one flake … I’ll be on the look-out.
See below
Sorry Josh but snow , sleet or mix makes for hazardous travel tonight and I’m talking Boston
Rain may mix with sleet or snow tonight from Harvey. I think we both know he is the best met on tv what’s he seeing.
Hmmm
Latest HRRR has “some” snow in Boston starting in the 11PM to Midnight hour:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011216/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png
Total snow up to 2AM when it will be all over
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011216/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
I believe it comes in quicker than that more like 8pm
I heard the TV mets say something like 9 PM.
Could be it’s about a 4 hr window.
12z Euro show anything to watch for in the next 10 days? I am getting fairly bored by the lack of snow opportunities around here
Not really. 😥
one of my friends as well as the people broadcasting it on the sports hub, this morning mentioned how loud the patriots stadium was.. Loudest they ever heard the crowd in the stadium.
Now to the weather, never snowed here in billerica. Kind of expected that… There was some freezing rain. but it has gone to plain rain now. Maybe some snow this evening. before it tapers off.
Wasn’t loud on the TV at all.
I agree Ace…I mentioned it a few times at the party we were at. It seemed quiet from the tv viewers perspective.
thats why i was surprised. They said it was one of the few times they felt that place shake
TV is deceiving. It’s all about where the microphones are.
My brother was there. It was LOUD.
I actually got surprised a few times on TV with the roar. Mac said he thinks it might have to do with acoustics also since other stadiums sound much much louder
question Tk what does this mean
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
If it goes into phase 7/8
Phase 7 and 8 late January/February increase snow threats in the East. Those phase don’t appear very strong on that chart so there is still a little uncertainty it does what is expected. It’s been very cranky this Winter so far.
Reviewing 12z guidance. I picked out 4 models, UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, and GFS. ECMWF and CMC offer SOME hope of a better pattern after January 24 if you like snow. But there are no promises there yet. I like the ridge position near the West Coast on the CMC but it’s a little too far west for a good setup on the Euro. The cut off low in the SW is not that bad in this case because it’s not the same orientation and straight SW to NE jet stream from the SW to the Great Lakes but more of a trough in central and eastern Canada into the eastern US. Contrary, the GFS and UKMET show not much in the way of a favorable snow pattern. Anyway that’s just today’s 12z runs on 4 models.
The MJO is concerning. As depicted on the chart that Matt posted, it needs to get away from that little circle in the middle and into a stronger phase 7, 8, and 1 if you want to increase your snow threat here in the East including New England. May need to delay that forecast onset of a better pattern from the last week of January to the first week of February based on current info.
Tk what time do you see the changeover in boston. And how do you see it shaking out.
John, not trying to answer for TK …. But, the current radar isnt too promising for having much precip left to fall, once the cold air arrives tonight.
You sure Tom. I’ve been hearing between 8-1 sleet or light snow.
No, I’m not 100% sure. Just kind of nowcasting the radar. 🙂
HRRR has precip shut off right around 6PM.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011219/t3/1ref_t3sfc_f04.png
With ZERO snowfall
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011219/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f04.png
Latest HRRR snowfall map.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015011219/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
Totally agree. POOF. SEE YA.
All mets saying atleast a coating tonigh
Not gonna happen.
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy 3m3 minutes ago
After a very strong strat warming event, no signs for a repeat next two weeks, a la ECMWF EPS
I have great reading comprehension skills ……. 🙂
I get the first part about the stratospheric warming event, but WHAT exactly is “no signs for a repeat next two weeks” …… what are they referring to that wont happen the next 2 weeks ?
No further events. SSW events often trigger pattern changes.
Forgive me for further clarifying ….
So, we, in the northeast …….are not likely to see a big cold plunge that sometimes come after a SSW event ?
Well it would at least mean a delay before we would see any serious cold.
My comprehension skills are nearly nill as I have a serious
attention problem, however, with my limited abililty, I understand it to mean that we won’t be seeing any COLD BLASTS for the next couple of weeks like we had last week. 😀
Thanks OS and TK !!!
Doesn’t mean we can’t have cold, just not these
CROSS-POLAR Plunges of Arctic Air of the purest variety.
John… I think it gets cold enough to snow by 9PM northwest of the city, 9PM on to the southeast. HOWEVER, there will be hardly any precipitation left until a final impulse comes along and delivers a small accumulation of snow mainly SOUTH of Boston in southeastern MA 10PM-midnight and Cape Cod & the Islands midnight to 3AM.
Lucky us …… 🙂
That’s EXACTLY what the latest HRRR shows. 😀
O.S. & Tom… Your downplaying the snow for the city idea is likely to be right on the money. The area to the NW has little support left and the impulse that would enhance any precip. tonight is going south of Boston.
Well that may happen . But all that liquid that fell today should freeze up yes.
Mark Rosenthal @weatherblast 10m10 minutes ago
Amazing, no major snowstorms in Boston for Dec…Jan has had nothing, and as I look down the road, I see nothing!
Amazing, kind of. We’ve had many Winters like this up to this point.
We can start that kind of talk in about three weeks I bet and not be crazy.
I have a weather related, but off-topic question. As I think I’ve mentioned, my daughter is going to school in Kalamazoo, MI. The snow just doesn’t stop. I understand that it is lake effect snow, and I understand the whole cold air over relatively warm water thing. But it’s not huge snow like in Buffalo but 3-4 inches a day, although I guess they had thunder snow the other day. And it isn’t always forecasted. Is predicting lake effect snow very difficult? At some point, will the lake freeze and will that turn off the snow? Also, she’s about 100 miles from the lake–so how far can lake effect snow travel–wouldn’t it dry up? I know that some of y’all are probably jealous of her, but she’s getting a little weary of it, and I don’t want to keep saying well, the weather channel says it’s not going to snow tomorrow and she wakes up to, you guessed it….
I’d be curious to know her elevation above lake level. It sounds like there is some kind of orographic lift involved.
Lake effect snow predicting is difficult in terms of details. You know what conditions will produce it, but it’s trying to figure out where bands set up, whether or not they move one direction or another, and how long they persist, as well as the intensity, and then the rare occasion of thunder that can occur.
Believe it or not, I know this: Kalamazoo is approximately 200 ft higher than Lake Michigan.
Does the thunder happen because it’s like a thunderstorm? She said that she couldn’t see the apartment complex next to hers, which is like the width of a side street away. The good news is that I’m feeling like a genius for insisting that she get an impreza.
FWIW, she also said that speed contributed to that great big accident on the highway. And that people were moved because it was so cold, not because they were going to blow up. (truck on fire, near truck with fireworks, near truck with hazard waste–only in Michigan)
Truck just dumped a ton of salt on our street again. Assuming it is preventive.
Yeah, ground is cold from last week still. Acts as a refrigerator coil just like in a skiing rink.
“skating rink”
Good point as well but those surface temps are probably sitting around 39F. However they will be able to cool quickly later.
I noticed it today when it was raining. The road was “creating” slush. And it wasn’t from the snow earlier.
Yes, it’s preventative. Temperatures AND dewpoints all remain above freezing at this time. 🙂
Sounds like a good idea to me since temps are going to drop like a rock between midnight and sunrise.
In fact, I hope they do the same here in Boston.
They do so much on my street that they have ruined our lilacs!!)_@)#*!()*@#()*!()@*#(!*@#
Ten bucks says Charlie’s crocus’ are up the week after next.
Mine bloomed and are past 🙂
Yep anything that avoids ice works for me.
First time in three plus decades I’ve seen them do this. Could the salt be treated ?
Surface map as of 5Pm
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Not much on radar. A small other impulse is moving up. Not sure if it makes it or
whether the front will be through or not. I don’t see much if anything happening.
I just put the trash out. A very very very slight drizzle going on. temp 36.3
Eric Fisher @ericfisher 13m13 minutes ago
Getting icy tonight, frigid tomorrow + ocean effect snow showers SE, then a week of BLAHHH in the weather department
Indeed. Tonight will be hazardous you’ll see. I’ll be calked in for sure.
Called.
BORING WEATHER!!!
In Andover, roads have iced up quickly, particularly side streets, careful out there!
Just drove to framingham. A few spits
Of rain. 35 was 36 at home.
But you didn’t stop to visit 🙁
Sounds like sleet in Woburn.
Yes? No?
Yes
Rain and sleet mixed. Very light though.
Another ribbon of precip looks to be moving
Up. Msy run into colder air. Looks to be light.
Say it ain’t so oldsalty . Hmmmmm. Sounds like it’s right on time. Look for minor accumulations and use caution in the city tonight.
Check the radar. All the steady stuff is south of Boston as was expected. Just very small patches of light rain/sleet closer to the city. No impact from those. The problem is where the temp falls before pavement can dry. The icy spots threat was mentioned in the forecast I issued this morning at 7:30.
I’ll report when I get in.
Advisory up for boston
Which advisory are you referring to?
There is no advisory for Boston.
Exactly. The NWS has issued a special weather statement, which was to be expected, to alert for the patches of black ice.
It said advisory / weather statement hadi.
Suffolk black ice will be everywhere tonight when the temp drops
I don’t think there will be time for it to dry out tk. That’s why the salters are out in full force . Will feel much different tomorrow when getting up cold day on tap.
Could hear sleet on skylights here. 33.6. Stay safe in am everyone.
You as well Vicki. I think it’s not being said enough it’s going to be very, very slippery in the morning . Ice is very bad .
It’s not the same as when you have freezing rain falling. Yes when damp pavement freezes up it is icy for sure, but I’m not sure if you realize that pavement with frozen dampness on it continues to dry when the wind blows. And the increasing wind and tumbling dewpoint will set sublimation off big time. That will limit the icing to some degree.
Thanks TK. Great explanation. Makes me worry less :). And it seems towns are preparing.
This one will be generally easy to handle, Vicki. It’s not the same as when you have a light accumulation of snow, then rain that soaks it, then a flash freeze. The ground is snow-free, but damp. At most a sprinkling of snow/sleet takes place in most of the region, maybe a coating toward the Cape, but not anything atop that. Not discounting the fact there will be slippery areas, but a little treatment and some time exposed to wind and very dry air toward morning will diminishing the problem.
There will be some frozen car doors to deal with, however. 😉
Thanks again TK. Son is here for night and was worried about his very early drive to boston. I will sleep better 🙂
As of 9PM there are no reporting stations in southern New England below freezing. However some of the valleys have gone slightly below. Boston is still 37 as of 9PM.
Around 12am boston will be below freezing according to the weather advisory / special statement .
Yes that was a special weather statement from NWS Taunton. The were not issuing an advisory, such as a Winter Weather Advisory. Just talking about the threat of black ice. I’m not sure if Boston reaches 32 by midnight though. The fall-off seems to be very slow so far. I do expect it to pick up steam a little later though.
18z gfs has a show storm at hour 350! We know its gonna happen 🙂
In terms of a pattern change look for it around the 25-28th.
John I did see the special weather statement, I was just confused when you posted the comment about the advisory. Are you wanting to go to work bc it seems you are excited about the black ice. Do they pay OT if you are called in at night. You get excitd about this like I do about snowstorms. You were a posting machine about the the snow chance and black today.
Boston has gone from 37 to 36 in 2 hours. They are not going to make freezing by midnight. Wind gusting to 21 MPH at Logan. This will help things start to dry out, as we expected would happen. Still icy patches especially inland. Not as many near the coast and to the south.
Wind is making a huge difference in terms of the icing potential. It picked up about 2 hours ago and things are drying much faster. The cars are dry now well.
Harvey is in camp dry-out. He was saying that most of the moisture would dry out but some of it would remain behind to freeze, so to watch for patches of black ice. I have already heard a few reports of slick spots in Woburn, but the main roads are drying out fast.
1AM… Boston 34. I finally got to 32 here but the ground is essentially dry except a few damp patches. The wind did its job in the last hour here.
Good morning…
“Maybe” just “Maybe” something around 1/21-1/23 ish
Here is the CMC
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015011300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png
And the Euro
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011300/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
GFS says What you talking about????????????????????
CMC is all rain? Correct?
Oh sure, but at nearly 10 days out LOADS of wiggle room.
At this point, just happy to see “something” on the map. 😀 😀
Yes hadi overtime. I got caught up with the on air mets and thought for sure there would be some back end precipitation . Oh well good job guys. For night calls hadi I just like to mentally get ready cause I’m realy not a night person, take care .
Will this happen?
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WE EXPECT THE NORTH WIND TO TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. THE FLOW OF -12C TO -13C AIR OVER 5-6C WATER WILL GENERATE 300J/KG CAPE WITH THE WIND DIRECTING THIS AIR ACROSS CAPE COD AND PARTS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THIS AREA.
yawn
Gooez it doesn’t say that they will move inland to Holden. 😀
Looking at the maps, not sure how much winds turns NE.
IF anything happens, it will be confined to the Cape, sorry to say.
I was hoping winds would turn up here. Does NOT look that way.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Ol5KfIMAAXYqR.jpg
FWIW, the CMC wants to bring the next system early on the 15th this close
to us:
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015011300/I_nw_g1_EST_2015011300_051.png
more yawn.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MA&stn=KORH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec
Now that’s a reason to YAWN!! I’l join ya
YAWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing is locking off O.S. The pattern remains flat and fast. Terrible!
People must think we’re nuts to think that’s terrible.
Well ….. now that you mention it ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Tom, is it SNOWING down your way? OR are you “just” to the North of the action?
Must look Awesome to your South?????
We can’t complain. We’ve had A LOT of snow this winter season. In millimeters, we’re fast approaching 40. I think we might reach 50mm by the end of January.
Very sad, very very sad indeed. 😥
WOW! The Cape Cod SNOW MACHINE is kicking in.
Call on the National Guard!!!!!
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml
In all seriousness, that looks pretty impressive compared to what I have seen before.
Just wish it would rotate up this way.
I can SEE the cloud deck off to the SouthEast, so it’s NOT all that far away.
Looks like it JUST got cranking. At 7AM wasn’t showing much at all.
Now, BOOM! That looks pretty intense. Just overcast at Chatham and Hyannis
at 8AM, so that further shows how FAST this exploded.
Plainfield, CT earthquake central. This morning 2.1 earthquake. Yesterday they had 3.2 and a little less than a week ago they had 2.2
Wow – didn’t hear about #1 or #3. That’s a bit odd???
I am actually a bit encouraged by the overnight runs. There is no real warm up to speak of and even Sunday looks to be fairly muted in terms of any big warm up. Let’s see if that translates into any snowiness down the road.
Agree GFS.
See below re: Euro Ensemble
Snow will come towards the end of the month and Feb. Bank on it, this is not winter of 2011. We have had plenty of cold and more on the way. We generally flip a pattern about very 6-8 weeks and that puts us around the end of January. I am basing that off mid November cold and some snow. MJO is forecssted to move into 7 and then 8 by months end.
IF MJO gets to 7&8 we “may” Be in business.
I “hope” You are correct.
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy 8m8 minutes ago
Over half of the 0Z ECMWF ensemble members favor cross polar flow during the 11-15 day period. #Cold end to January
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7PFAx4CQAAM4zH.png
Meteorologist Gil Simmons in CT way saying yesterday he thought by mid January the snow chances would get better. He still thinks February could have some sizeable storms. He brings up a good point we have some big ones in February and March in the past.
Hey Tom, It “looks” as though an Ocean Effect Band of snow is about to move
on shore at or near your location. 😀 😀 😀
New Ocean Effect Snow Band well off shore is moving WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD rather than Southward like the others. NOT sure what
this will mean. Will continue to watch.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/bos/?region=bml
Hmmm
Just looked at the fresh run of the 12Z NAM. It shows a “fair” amount of
OCEAN SNOW from Just North of Boston covering Eastern MA to the Cape
from Later tomorrow night into The wee hours of Friday. Winds turn on shore
in response to ocean storm to our South. This “may” just get interesting. 😀 😀
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015011312/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png
Cold and dry will continue to be the overall theme of January 2015. Did you expect any different? 😉
O.S. I have been watching the NAM try to bring some ocean snow in for Thursday night. It has done this a few times this season but what actually occurred was less. Something to watch anyway.
Cautiously confident MJO hits phase 7 in about 10 days.
New blog update by 3:45PM today.
That must be a sharp cloud line, because, here at the school ….. a couple miles inland from the ocean, its sunny. I haven’t had a chance to look eastbound in a while.
It is sunny and snowing here in Plymouth. Looks pretty cool actually.
Models jump and we can all find a a ensemble run or an op run that will fill our cupboards with the ingredients needed to get to the dessert we want…look at the difference between the 00z ECMWF ENS and the 12z ENS. 00z offers hope, 12z offered none. It means very little this far out too me. Because of the “boring” weather this week, you are going to get tweets and outlooks grasping on every odd model run looking for something “exciting.” What you need to look for are 3 things, ridging / rising heights out west that stays in place and is consistent for a period of time and a SE Ridge that decays and the high shifts west, while a North Atlantic / Arctic high shifts east towards Greenland. You get that set up, we will be in potential business. I still believe post January 28th for about a 15 day period we get into a pretty good pattern for some potential storms with wintry precip, but even in the right pattern a 100 mile shift in a low track can change it all.
🙂
I have never been “bored” with the processes of the atmosphere from local to global.
When you wake up in the morning, Pooh,” said Piglet at last, “what’s the first thing you say to yourself?”
“What’s for breakfast?” said Pooh. “What do you say, Piglet?”
“I say, I wonder what’s going to happen exciting today?” said Piglet.
Pooh nodded thoughtfully. “It’s the same thing,” he said.”
Yes an incredibly random Vicki comment…sorry but it popped into my head 🙂
Its a beautiful winter day out there, crisp! 🙂
It really is.
Hello, cold out there!!! Disgusting 🙂 looks milder though end of week and even next week doesn’t look to bad, still a ways out but all and all 4.8 inches of snow so far and it’s Jan 13th, most new Englanders will be happy with that. On my errands 107.9 that fellow was saying in 28days daylight will be 1 hr longer, that really is what makes all the difference. in the meantime I wouldn’t mind a plow able/shovable snowstorm, I’m not talking about a few inches. Good day!! 🙂 enjoy your day 🙂
Daylight is equal to Nov 29th
The low clouds along with waves of snow showers have moved westward enough to be falling here, 2 miles inland from the ocean.
Visibility, at its lowest, has been perhaps 2 miles, but is mostly around 4 to 5 miles (guessing).
Fairly large snow flakes with much space btwn them. Kind of like looking at a snow-globe.
This time last year to date = 27.0″
So far to date = 4.7″
What a difference a year makes. 🙁
I am going to make a prediction that we have a storm on Feb 20th. This is not a prediction based on any models or even an inkling of thought about what the atmosphere is going to do but merely out of bad luck. We have an acquistion to complete that weekend and I will be driving around to our new branches in Brighton, JP, West Roxbory, and a few others and expect the weather to be lousy. 🙂
no really warm up in sight… Now we just need some storms to come up and clobber us. :D, though MJO still shows only a week 7 to 8 phrase before going back into phase 2/3
The big January thaw is looking less and less impressive with time. We should get some milder days sprinkled in for the next couple weeks, but the general cold and dry regime should continue for awhile. Models are starting to hint at a storm around Sunday/Monday, but it would be rain if it happened, like the 12z Euro shows, or it might miss entirely. Snow prospects should improve late month and February- last night’s new ECMWF weeklies looked promising- but the odds of reaching average snowfall in Boston are slim. We’ve already burned half of meteorological winter, believe it or not.
Cool image from Eric Fisher
https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10931657_824459974259191_3238873333657563032_o.jpg
Very nice
We’re not the only ones in New England who are well behind seasonal average snowfall. Aside from far northern NH and into ME, the rest of NE is well below average. Take the beautiful town of Manchester, VT (one of my favs) in central VT. Average annual snowfall = 128.5″. To date, they have received 11.2″ all falling during the month of November.
Unfortunately, Ace, that has been the case for far too many years in the past couple of decades. You are so right about Manchester being a beautiful area.
Manchester, VT is a beautiful town, I third that.
Parts of Vermont have gotten close to or above seasonal average in terms of snow, albeit mostly Northern Vermont (Burlington and Jay’s Peak area).
Thus far, this is not a good season for snow in SNE. And, 2011-2012 was not, either. However, recently we’ve had several years of well above-average snowfall throughout New England, including SNE. We’ll see what the rest of this month, February, and March bring. I’m not holding my breath. But, one never knows.
If you look at this decade 2010-11, 12-13, and 13-14 have had above normal snowfall for Boston. Assuming this one doesn’t 3 out of the first 5 years of this decade had above normal snowfall which is not to shabby.
Eric Fisher @ericfisher 41m41 minutes ago Queens, NY
CPC outlook calls for milder air next week, but starting to have my doubts in New England. We’ll see….
Is the Ocean effect snow accumulating down towards the cape? Those bands have been there for quite some time now
The reports I’ve seen say no, just showery in nature
I’ve seen photos from Falmouth and Mashpee that indicate some minor accumulation of inch or so perhaps a bit more. 😀
Updating…
Brief warm-up Sunday. Near to below normal temps most of next week. That’s a bit of a change from what it looked like a few days ago. Some things in the atmosphere are taking place a little quicker than it looked like.
I know Matt mentioned the MJO outlook above. Somehow I feel like our magic # here to get snow of magnitude is going to be phase 1. That said, we will not be without a few opportunities as we enter the final days of January.
I’ll post here in a few when the update is done.
18Z NAM tries to bring Ocean Snow up to Boston by 12Z tomorrow.
And then continue it for 12 hours or more. 😀
Will it? OR Not? That is the question.
It may not amount to much of anything, BUT it would be nice to have
SNOW in the air for the entire daylight period tomorrow. 😀
I’m just saying IF one likes SNOW. 😀
This is pretty cool
http://www.bdcwire.com/this-breathtaking-time-lapse-video-of-boston-might-be-the-best-one-yet/?s_campaign=bcom%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter
Saving that!
Blog updated!