Well, It IS Winter

263 Comments

3:36PM

The cold air is back again and though the core of this latest cold shot will be tonight across southeastern New England, it will remain on the cold side for a few more days. As high pressure slips away to the northeast and low pressure passes far south of the region, they will combine to produce enough of a northeast to east wind to bring ocean clouds and snow showers, which have been around southeastern MA all day Tuesday, a little more northwestward into the remainder of coastal eastern MA, some short distance inland, and similarly in coastal to slightly inland southeastern NH through Wednesday night or early Thursday. By later Thursday, a shift in the wind back toward the north then west should push the clouds and snow showers back out to sea. However, once Friday comes, a cold front will arrive from the northwest and may spawn its own snow showers followed by increasing wind and a drop in temperature.

Looking ahead to the weekend, it appears to be a split decision with lots of sun but cold air Saturday, then some increase in clouds but milder on Sunday. By Sunday night, some light precipitation is possible as a cold front moves in from the west. We’ll have to keep an eye on low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast at the same time but it is quite likely that this area will not link up with the front and will pass harmlessly offshore early Monday, which will turn out to be a windy and colder day for southeastern New England. High pressure moves in by Tuesday, based on current expected timing, for cold but tranquil weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Ocean clouds and occasional snow showers across southeastern MA edging northwestward toward Boston. Mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 0-5 interior valleys, 5-10 elsewhere except 10-15 coastal areas. Wind light N to NE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Occasional snow showers with minor accumulation possible especially eastern coastal areas of NH and MA as well as across all of southeastern MA. Highs in the 20s. Lows in the 10s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny and windy. Chance of snow showers morning and midday. Low 20. High 30.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 10. High 30.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/mix showers at night. Low 20. High 45.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 25.

263 thoughts on “Well, It IS Winter”

        2. It does indeed. When I made my forecast I knew already that my temps may be too high for at least one of the following: Friday high, Saturday low, Saturday high, Saturday night low. Not sure which one or more of these may need to be adjusted downward.

          1. Awesome.

            Thanks TK.

            I was beginning to question my answer to HADI.

            Here’s why:

            Those figures, at least for Nne were “about”
            273 Kelvin. That’s about 32 Dgerees fahrenheit.

            That was confusing me.

            Can you explain? Many thanks

            1. I’m not sure why they use Kelvin. Like the atmosphere would ever get to absolute zero. 😛

  5. Thanks TK. It has been snowing for most of the day but not accumlating to anything. But as OS said on the last blog, it has been nice to see the snow in the air. 🙂

    1. My back door and kitchen windows are covered with steam because I am making Velveeta shells & cheese. 🙂

        1. Well, I added 4 pieces of well-done crumbled bacon to this. So like…it’s even better than Hamburger Helper right now. 🙂

          2. I’m drooling. We had a healthy dinner :). Creamed mushrooms on toast….also with bacon crumbled although usually use prosciutto.

  9. Tk Harvey was kinda saying a 50/50 shot of rain for the game do you agree. He was saying depending on the track it takes.

    1. Cold front coming through, perhaps spawning a wave of low pressure as it passes. If the timing is right, it could get wet for the game. 5 days away so plenty of time to fine-tune. Whatever happens it will be short-lived and followed by a blast of cold/dry air for MLK Jr Day and Tuesday.

  10. So I guess we lose the old GFS forever tomorrow? And we’re stuck with the half-ready upgrade? That’s what it seems like at least, from what I’ve seen and heard the 6z run tomorrow will be the last for the old GFS. Maybe I’m wrong though.

        1. No the GFS upgrade has been paused for the foreseeable future. Probably close to a year. I have made a few posts about this on previous blogs.

  11. I should clarify what I wrote. The biggest part of the upgrade which is the high res output has been delayed for the foreseeable future. It is the inability of the model to reconcile high res data that has been causing wild output swings. Other changes will go forward but by keeping the lower resolution base structure it will be far less variant.

  12. Ok, three (3) NAM runs in a row signal Ocean snow starting about 7AM tomorrow going to about 9 or 10 PM on Friday. However, accumulation is DOWN on the 0Z run.

    We shall see.

  14. What’s up with the GFS???? Soaking RAIN Sunday night into Monday AM.

    Like to see what the Euro and CMC have to say on this.

    1. .50 QPF for Monday event. Gfs has another event for 1/23 (also rain).

      Also GFS says not much of a warm up , a day here and there until it really goes down around the 28th.

        1. Euro has it changing over to a period of snow before
          ending. We will have to see how it evolves, but one thing for sure, it looks like a REAL event now, even IF it may be ALL or mostly RAIN. Still some time. We shall see.

        3. I was talking with Hadi just the other day about how some of the storm tracks have not been that bad. We’ve seen it snow plenty with that track – not this year though. I don’t know if it’s too much ridging or what but man that’s frustrating.

          1. It’s only Wednesday. Perhaps it evolves a bit
            more to the East. Probably NOT, but we can hope I suppose. 😀

            1. I just looked at the GFS and even if it were a BM storm, there’d be nothing here. Precip is too tight gradient. I’ll look again but it really looks like nothing more than a wave on a front. Rain is 1.5″ in Worcester but it looks overdone.

              1. Euro looks similar, though MORE
                to the East. Rain to snow
                scenario with perhaps 1-3 or 2-4 inches after changeover.

                I think it starts as a wave, but looks to crank some.

            1. I don’t see it. But I haven’t looked at the profiles. It would be close. That ridge to the east is killing it for us on this one.

  15. It is overcast all over Eastern Sections, even out to Worcester, however, there is NOT
    a single echo on radar. NAM still calls for Ocean Snow today starting within the next
    few hours. NO SIGNS of that yet.

    Here is the 6Z NAM snowmap for today/tomorrow

    12KM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015011406&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=188

    4KM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015011406&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=128

    CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015011406&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=292

  19. 6AM obs, all overcast out to Worcester and Orange. -10 in Pittsfield and -15 in North Adams. Pretty Chilly.

    NOT one single report of any SNOW. NONE.

    NO SIGNS, other than overcast skies, of any impending ocean snow.
    Waiting for HIGH to move a bit to induce NE wind????? I dunno.

  20. re: Weekend Storm potential

    Words of caution from NWS

    IT IS LIKELY THAT AS
    WE NEAR THE TIMEFRAME IN QUESTION…AND THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW IS BETTER SAMPLED…THAT WE WILL GAIN GREATER INSIGHT AS TO OUTCOMES AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

    1. As I said above, I AGREE with you re: 06Z GFS
      Check out the Euro, it is somewhat different. 850MB temps crash quickly
      towards the coast.

      1. I don’t subscribe anymore to Accuweather. Stupid of me this year.

        So, I look at the nutty GFS all the time.

        Any precip left when the temps do crash?

      2. Interesting from Upton NWS office:

        FOR THE STORM…UPR LVL ENERGY CURRENTLY INVOF THE DATELINE EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NERN CONUS BY THE END
        OF THE WEEKEND.

        WRT TO THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL WX…THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY TWO CAMPS PER THE GFS ENSEMBLES. ONE IS A FASTER AND FURTHER WWD SOLN
        SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE SECOND IS A SLOWER AND FURTHER E SOLN…SLOWER IN FACT THAN THE ECMWF.

        ONE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE SECOND CAMP BRINGS A 981 LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK 18Z MON.

        Date Line

        Here is where it is located

        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

        180 degrees
        The International Date Line (IDL) is an imaginary line of longitude on the Earth’s surface located at about 180 degrees east (or west) of the Greenwich Meridian.

        So what energy do they MEAN????

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_npac_000_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=npac&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150114+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

  22. Here is test forecast for KBOS,

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z JAN14
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    WED 00Z 14-JAN -7.1 -8.4 1038 48 6 557 528
    WED 06Z 14-JAN -7.1 -6.5 1036 38 12 0.00 557 530
    WED 12Z 14-JAN -5.8 -5.6 1034 46 6 0.00 557 531
    WED 18Z 14-JAN -2.3 -8.0 1029 59 2 0.01 554 531
    THU 00Z 15-JAN -4.3 -9.6 1026 79 3 0.00 553 533
    THU 06Z 15-JAN -6.7 -8.0 1024 87 5 0.00 552 533
    THU 12Z 15-JAN -7.9 -6.5 1022 85 17 0.00 551 534
    THU 18Z 15-JAN 0.8 -7.5 1018 58 11 0.00 547 533
    FRI 00Z 16-JAN -2.9 -8.5 1014 85 10 0.00 541 530
    FRI 06Z 16-JAN -4.0 -5.6 1009 85 25 0.00 537 530
    FRI 12Z 16-JAN -3.8 -4.8 1006 74 59 0.00 535 530
    FRI 18Z 16-JAN 2.3 -11.2 1006 39 2 0.00 533 528
    SAT 00Z 17-JAN -5.7 -18.1 1015 38 5 0.00 526 514
    SAT 06Z 17-JAN -10.9 -17.8 1020 49 8 0.00 528 512
    SAT 12Z 17-JAN -13.1 -14.7 1026 50 4 0.00 541 521
    SAT 18Z 17-JAN -6.6 -10.7 1027 24 40 0.00 549 529
    SUN 00Z 18-JAN -8.0 -6.4 1028 33 47 0.00 556 535
    SUN 06Z 18-JAN -5.8 -1.2 1025 75 43 0.00 558 539
    SUN 12Z 18-JAN 3.4 -0.4 1020 84 26 0.00 558 542
    SUN 18Z 18-JAN 8.5 1.8 1016 91 74 0.02 556 543
    MON 00Z 19-JAN 7.1 1.5 1015 98 97 0.27 554 542
    MON 06Z 19-JAN 3.0 0.2 1010 98 99 0.66 550 542
    MON 12Z 19-JAN 1.2 -1.8 1008 98 63 0.57 545 538
    MON 18Z 19-JAN 3.5 -5.0 1007 67 13 0.02 540 534
    TUE 00Z 20-JAN -3.9 -7.2 1009 67 42 0.00 534 527
    TUE 06Z 20-JAN -9.3 -9.5 1010 60 51 0.00 529 521
    TUE 12Z 20-JAN -13.6 -11.7 1010 58 2 0.00 526 519
    TUE 18Z 20-JAN -8.5 -11.9 1007 33 2 0.00 525 520
    WED 00Z 21-JAN -10.5 -9.3 1008 42 13 0.00 527 521
    WED 06Z 21-JAN -11.5 -8.2 1009 48 29 0.00 531 523
    WED 12Z 21-JAN -11.2 -5.9 1009 50 33 0.00 536 528
    WED 18Z 21-JAN -1.5 -6.5 1007 35 98 0.00 536 530
    THU 00Z 22-JAN -4.4 -5.9 1004 80 96 0.08 531 528
    THU 06Z 22-JAN -5.9 -9.0 1004 84 71 0.04 526 523
    THU 12Z 22-JAN -10.5 -11.8 1007 77 96 0.00 524 518
    THU 18Z 22-JAN -4.5 -12.2 1010 51 27 0.00 526 518
    FRI 00Z 23-JAN -10.2 -11.7 1014 67 27 0.00 528 517
    FRI 06Z 23-JAN -9.9 -11.7 1016 63 60 0.00 528 515
    FRI 12Z 23-JAN -11.4 -13.7 1018 65 98 0.00 527 513
    FRI 18Z 23-JAN -5.1 -16.1 1018 48 3 0.00 525 511
    SAT 00Z 24-JAN -12.2 -16.2 1022 63 19 0.00 524 507

    1. So here’s what we are interested in

      MON 12Z 19-JAN 1.2 -1.8 1008 98 63 0.57 545 538
      MON 18Z 19-JAN 3.5 -5.0 1007 67 13 0.02 540 534

      That’s a “possible” .59 with SNOW, but more likely 1/2 of that.

      Hadi, can you run for Worcester for Retrac? tx

  23. Here is text forecast for ORH, a little colder but not by much

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ORH LAT= 42.27 LON= -71.87 ELE= 1011

    00Z JAN14
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    WED 00Z 14-JAN -11.9 -8.3 1039 55 7 557 527
    WED 06Z 14-JAN -11.8 -6.4 1037 41 10 0.00 558 530
    WED 12Z 14-JAN -9.0 -6.3 1034 46 5 0.00 557 531
    WED 18Z 14-JAN -2.7 -9.7 1029 61 3 0.00 554 531
    THU 00Z 15-JAN -5.8 -9.0 1027 75 4 0.00 553 532
    THU 06Z 15-JAN -8.6 -7.0 1024 81 5 0.00 552 533
    THU 12Z 15-JAN -9.4 -6.1 1022 77 20 0.00 551 533
    THU 18Z 15-JAN 0.1 -6.9 1018 57 4 0.00 546 533
    FRI 00Z 16-JAN -6.3 -8.8 1015 75 38 0.00 541 529
    FRI 06Z 16-JAN -6.2 -6.4 1010 88 23 0.00 537 529
    FRI 12Z 16-JAN -5.8 -5.3 1007 75 59 0.00 536 531
    FRI 18Z 16-JAN -0.1 -11.6 1007 43 2 0.00 533 528
    SAT 00Z 17-JAN -9.3 -17.9 1016 48 5 0.00 527 514
    SAT 06Z 17-JAN -14.6 -17.8 1021 57 5 0.00 532 516
    SAT 12Z 17-JAN -16.1 -15.2 1027 58 5 0.00 543 523
    SAT 18Z 17-JAN -7.8 -9.1 1027 29 64 0.00 551 530
    SUN 00Z 18-JAN -10.0 -5.1 1027 35 45 0.00 557 536
    SUN 06Z 18-JAN -7.2 -0.9 1024 84 42 0.00 558 539
    SUN 12Z 18-JAN 2.0 0.0 1019 91 25 0.00 557 542
    SUN 18Z 18-JAN 6.4 1.2 1016 95 79 0.03 555 542
    MON 00Z 19-JAN 5.0 0.9 1014 97 99 0.35 553 541
    MON 06Z 19-JAN 0.7 -0.9 1011 99 100 0.67 549 540
    MON 12Z 19-JAN 0.7 -3.4 1009 92 8 0.25 543 536
    MON 18Z 19-JAN 1.8 -5.6 1008 64 24 0.00 539 532
    TUE 00Z 20-JAN -7.7 -8.5 1012 71 60 0.00 533 524
    TUE 06Z 20-JAN -12.5 -10.0 1012 67 42 0.00 530 521
    TUE 12Z 20-JAN -17.3 -11.0 1012 62 2 0.00 527 518
    TUE 18Z 20-JAN -10.0 -11.3 1009 35 2 0.00 526 519
    WED 00Z 21-JAN -13.1 -8.1 1010 48 15 0.00 530 523
    WED 06Z 21-JAN -14.9 -7.5 1011 58 27 0.00 533 524
    WED 12Z 21-JAN -14.1 -5.5 1010 60 57 0.00 537 529
    WED 18Z 21-JAN -3.6 -6.4 1007 45 98 0.00 535 529
    THU 00Z 22-JAN -6.2 -6.7 1004 88 92 0.13 530 526
    THU 06Z 22-JAN -9.5 -10.5 1005 88 83 0.02 525 522
    THU 12Z 22-JAN -14.3 -12.1 1009 83 86 0.00 524 518
    THU 18Z 22-JAN -6.0 -12.1 1011 55 24 0.00 526 518
    FRI 00Z 23-JAN -13.4 -11.3 1015 78 30 0.00 529 517
    FRI 06Z 23-JAN -14.0 -11.4 1017 79 69 0.00 527 514
    FRI 12Z 23-JAN -16.3 -14.2 1019 77 100 0.00 526 512
    FRI 18Z 23-JAN -7.3 -17.1 1019 53 4 0.00 525 510
    SAT 00Z 24-JAN -15.8 -16.2 1023 73 33 0.00 525 507

      1. I think at least your area will see SOME SNOW. How much remains to be seen.

        Boston? I dunno. NOT as optimistic. We shall see.

        Curious to see 12Z Euro on this one.

    1. What do flames look like? 😀 😀 😀

      Radars are currently SPOTLESS. CLEAN AS A WHISTLE. 😀 😀 😀

  26. Another quake in CT? What is going on?

    Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 1m1 minute ago
    I am getting multiple reports of tremors and rumbling in the #quake zone of Eastern #Connecticut!

    Is the BIG one coming? 😀

  27. 6:40 pm game Sunday night …..

    Do I get the sense this potential low Sunday night / Monday may have trended to slow down a bit on the 0z runs ?

    Is this going to be a rainy game or a dry game ?

    1. Hadi when is that snow map for? I believe other than a few flurry/ light snow shower no snow threat around unless I missed somthing.

          1. John,
            Hadi posted the output of the EURO run.
            NOT the GFS. The GFS says Rain, the EURO says Rain to SNOW. 😀

  29. Overcast and 11.4 here. Temp held steady overnight. No flames to be seen yet.

    That is 10 quakes in Plainfield in one week; 7 in the last two days.

    I’ve read some that it is not unusual. I do not remember in my 65 years any more than perhaps a couple in one location in these parts. Do any of the other older folks on here?

      1. Interesting. Thanks.

        I’m sorry, but I still WONDER IF something BIGGER isn’t on the way and IF it comes, we WILL feel it quite strongly here.

        Like we have Nothing else to worry about. 😀

        1. OS – my thoughts exactly. And the article seems to say it a possible outcome. When stuff moves that much you wonder if it is just settling or slipping and there will be a big slip.

        1. Yup, that was a good one, even if only a typo, unless
          Hadi was been extremely clever to get us going. 😀

  33. Occasional Snow flakes/grains falling from the sky. That’s about it.

    NAM signaled a general ocean effect snow today. So far it AIN’T Happening.

    I’m not feeling it. We shall see.

    Will see if 12Z NAM Shows the BEEF or not. 😀

  38. Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7 2m2 minutes ago
    . @hockeycrew77 chance of rain is 60-70%….not 100%……no chance it’s snow but still a chance it’s dry. #StayTuned #PatsGame

    Perhaps not at game time. But no chance? That’s bold. After the game
    “could” be some snow. We shall see.

    1. If you are looking for an accumlating snow storm keep looking because I dont think it happens, could be wrong. Next month lookout.

      1. The only thing we need to look out for next month is the groundhog 😛 Put a huge fork in this winter. Either too cold and dry or storms run inside and rain. Very little evidence it will happen any other way

  39. I see you posted the tweet from Gil Simmons earlier Old Salty. When Gil says words like interesting, stay tuned, watching closely it means SOMETHING could be brewing. He is not an alarmist or a hypest and one of the best meteorologist we have here in CT.

  41. There were a lot of people in winter of 12-13 prior to the blizzard ready to put a fork in winter and saying back to back dud winters. Then the blizzard came February 8-9 and Boston ended up with over 60 inches of snow.
    Gil Simmons made the point the other day on air saying we have had some big ones in March and February in the past.

  42. NWS out of Upton, NY take Sunday into Monday
    FOR THE STORM…UPR LVL ENERGY CURRENTLY INVOF THE DATELINE
    EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NERN CONUS BY THE END
    OF THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PCPN ALONG
    AN INVERTED SFC TROF SUN…WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROF
    THEN TRACKING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA MON. THE TWO MODELS SUGGEST A
    MAINLY WARM EVENT WITH PRIMARILY RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME SNOW.

    THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AS WELL SO
    HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC.

    WRT TO THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL WX…THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY TWO
    CAMPS PER THE GFS ENSEMBLES. ONE IS A FASTER AND FURTHER WWD SOLN
    SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE SECOND IS A SLOWER AND FURTHER E
    SOLN…SLOWER IN FACT THAN THE ECMWF.

    ONE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE SECOND CAMP BRINGS A 981 LOW OVER
    THE BENCHMARK 18Z MON.

    OFFICIAL FCST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW…AS IT WILL BE ENTIRELY TRACK
    DEPENDENT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR UPSTREAM FOR THE WRN
    SIDE TO BE SNOW. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK

      1. Ugh – I just spent about five minutes looking where you said that TK as I didn’t remember hearing it. Next time I will just wait for you to clarify 🙂

      2. Yes you did not say buried you said most of our snow will come in February , didn’t think I needed to clarify lol.

  45. I know its not doing much out there …. so, maybe this wont matter ……

    Seems that these echos today are moving almost due east to west, where yesterday, the motion was mostly NNE to SSW.

    So …. if anything develops, perhaps more areas will see flurries/snow showers than did yesterday.

    1. Yes that much is true, BUT where oh where is the ocean snow?

      Looking like NOTHING happens until the Norlun feature tomorrow, which basically becomes the Northern precipitation shield of the off shore system.

      Go Figure.

    1. I counted 17 flakes on my walk to work this morning. That translates into .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001qpf

  47. It’s funny how a storm can literally pop up on the models seemingly out of nowhere like the Monday event has. This will be interesting to say the least and potentially a now-casting type event. Track will obviously be extremely important, but unlike a number of storms we have seen thus far, there will be cold air nearby and no major warmth ahead of the system to overcome. I am a Novice in the truest sense of the word when it comes to this, but I’ve live in NE my whole life and have seen a number of times the curve balls that mother natures throws into winter storms around here. The 12Z GFS certainly does not support a snow storm taken verbatim, but I don’t think this will go down as expected.(hunch)

      1. Even with this track, I have a feeling (looking at previous Euro run) that the cold air collapses Eastward FASTER than depicted
        here and this would allow for at least some amount of
        back end snow.

        AND it could trend more to the East anyway.

  49. Just as an aside…the GFS did pick up on the norlun snows for tomorrow so it’s not just the NAM alone in that camp

    1. Yes, I was going to post that, but got tied up with something here. 😀

      Sometimes these Norluns can be tricky and very difficult to forecast.

      Wouldn’t it be something IF it ended up being an unexpected SURPRISE.

      Yes, I know, HIGHLY UNLIKELY, but it would be nice. 😀

      1. Fear not OS….TK will arrive on the blog soon and declare no surprise for tomorrow and no storm for Monday. 🙂

        1. He may indeed delcare no surprises for tomorrow, however, I don’t see how he could say No storm Sunday Night into Monday AM. That looks pretty solid at the moment. 😀

  50. If I read the latest NWS discussion correctly this so-called Ocean Effect snow
    for today is offic1ally CALLED OFF!!! Only the occasional flames err flakes we
    have been seeing.

    We shall see IF we see any flakes tomorrow.

  51. FWIW the 12Z CMC picks up on Norlun, but keeps activity just off shore
    at this latitude and the gives coastal down East Maine some Snow.

  52. The GFS was upgraded at 12z this morning. I am still a little confused as to the extent of it. To me it appears they’ve just made the parallel GFS the new, one and only GFS, including the higher resolution and everything else. But that’s not what JMA said is happening. Still, look at this at 228 hours. On the old GFS, the resolution cut back horribly after 192 hours. But this is still high res.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011412&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=876

  53. Thanks Tk as always 🙂

    2 weeks and it’s Groundhog Day, will he see his shadow?
    Only a little over 2 weeks of vacation left, gonna finish it off doing a little sking the last few days of Jan. Good day everyone 🙂 stay warm!!

  54. Reading above it is rare in my opinion that back end snow ever produces anything substantial in terms of precip.

    1. I dont even think we will need to worry about back end snow. Sunday precipitation rain along with close to 50 degrees

      1. The last good back end snow I remember was in March 2005. It started as rain then the snow line started to collapse from
        northwest to southeast as the low pressure was strengthening.

  55. Gil Simmons just said rain ending as wet snow. He said yesterday there would be a storm just offshore in that Sunday into Monday timeframe lets wash it. Today he said its closer now.

    2. Saw that. WHAT A REVOLTING DEVELOPMENT THIS IS!!!!!!!

      100 Bonus points if anyone other than Vicki knows where this saying originated.

          1. Just the way this Winter is going.

            DREADFUL!!!!!!!!!!

            Cold, cold and more cold, then this
            facuckta mess!!()@#*(&!@*(#&*(!&@#*(&(!*@&#(!@()#*(!&@*(#&!&(@#*(&!@#*&89

  59. With Sun/Mon system forming on the approaching cold front, what is causing the storm to tilt negative that much? I assume there is a meteorological explanation for it, but it seems odd a system would want to tilt like that into a cold air mass instead of taking the path of least resistance?

    1. Not sure, I had that same thought myself. The only thing i can think of is there’s a strong ridge of high pressure to our east over the Atlantic as the low approaches.

  61. I dont like this very minor enhancement of precip starting to show up in easternmost Mass. The strands of precip over the Cape and what looks like another area from Boston thru its southwest suburbs. At least the stuff on the Cape is reaching the ground as I can see rain drops on some of the cams I’m looking at.

    It wouldnt take much, given how cold its been, to put a tiny coating of white down, onto the roads, if a little something begins to fall.

  62. Everyone relax. The snow is coming later this winter which I stated in a number of posts.

    In fact, I know the exact dates for all of this winter’s storms and I am willing to sell you those dates at the reasonable price of $25. I also own some “special” land in Florida which is for sale. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  66. 18Z 4KM Mesoscale NAM has not completed yet and is already dropping 3-4 inches
    across the area. Who said there would be NO SURPRISES? 32K NAM only drops
    1-2 inches at most.

    Perhaps this little event can make up for the travesty on Sunday/Monday????

    1. Visibility coming down. Very thick snizzle falling. Everythings turning white.

      Makes for a tough evening for me as Wednesday nights are my kids activities and of course, that requires driving around and about. So, I wish I wasnt dealing with snow.

      Oh well, not something I can control. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. I am guilty of assuming TK would declare that wouldn’t be any surprises. However, we have some snizzle going on here in Plymouth now also.

  68. Snow continues to increase in intensity. Bigger size flakes starting to fall as well.

    Definite convergence area with east winds just out over the ocean and NNW at the coastline. Maritime air being lifted over arctic air.

    Definite opportunity for some coastal snow this evening.

  71. Couple tweets from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    For what it’s worth (not much) a lot of our models are hinting at something a week from Friday. Keep that in the back of your mind

    -NAO, -AO, -EPO. If the Euro Ensembles are right winter is getting ready to pay us a big visit end of the month

  72. Apart from Sunday the cold builds back in quickly and looks to stay right into Feb. January will go down as way below average temp wise.

  77. Light freezing drizzle for the past couple hours in Wrentham too. Weird. It’s slicked up the ground some too, could be a little treacherous out there. There were snow flurries much of the day but then a change to the drizzle.

  81. From the CVS in Marshfield on Rt. 139 eastward, perhaps 1/2 to 3/4 inches, with greasy roads. Get 1 mile west of there and it drops off to nearly nothing.

    Kind of neat, in that, its usually the exact reversal, where the CVS is where you often hit rain and bare ground.

    Misting flurries inland, where I am now, but it was still light snow where the 1/2 to 3/4 inch amounts were.

  82. I still don’t love our prospects for major snow up here. Rainstorm for Sunday/Monday. Next opportunity would be around 1/23-1/24, but that likely gets suppressed south of us. And I do believe that may set a trend of southern tracking storms. We might get stuck cold and dry while the mid-Atlantic and Southeast get the storm action. We’ll see though, if the storm track ends up more northerly than I think it will be then things could get interesting for us.

  83. Well what happened to the blossoming snow? Seems to have gone poof.
    Oh well, what else is new.

    A few flakes here and that’s about it. 😀

        1. John,

          Not any time soon, unless the intensity really picks up.
          It’s sort of like some dandruff falling from the sky. Just not coming down enough to do anything.

  84. So I ask this. If we go into a colder patern does this bring up some concerns that being in a relitvley cold set up could push any potential snow storms south.

  85. David Epstein said he thinks this winter will be remembered for the cold not the snow when all is said and done, not saying we’re not going to get snow.

    1. Who knows. Hope not. As long as we don’t have what we’ve been having.

      COLD => Suppressed systems
      Then It warms and we get a cutter or inside runner

      CRAPFEST!@()*#(!&*!&@#*&!*(@#!&*(*&(#@

  86. All this talk about snizzle and freezing drizzle. I see well formed SNOW flakes here.
    What up wit dat?

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 7m7 minutes ago Scituate, MA
    appears more like outer deformation band than OE. Believe in olden days this icy windy H2O was ‘sleet’, now ‘snizzle’

  88. Wow, that sucker is WAAAAAAAAAAY off shore.

    Not sure that “Norlun” feature will be able to set up.
    Beginning to look like even that is off the table. Can’t win for nothing. 😥 😥

  89. Nothing here now. Of course 18z shows a much colder solution for Monday still rain here but snow a little further inland. Also has nothing for the 24th suppressed to the south. WWiz that is my concern as well but we shall how it plays out. I have no doubt we get into a snowy pattern the question is a lot of little storms or big storms.

  94. Yes, the freezing drizzle was a complete surprise to me. Very shallow mild marine layer just above the ground. Not modeled well.

    Just another example of our inability to predict precisely.

  96. my driveway was an ice rank until i but some salt down on it. my brother an i just played some hockey 😉

    In other news, lets see how the gfs.. Previously known as the gfs par performs. says we get snow sunday night into monday but coastal rain.

    1. Not really a surprise. That system has no chance to produce snow in eastern MA. The air mass will be too warm.

  98. Still flaking here. No STINKEN Drizzle. Hasn’t been any either as I have been
    watching the entire evening. NOT accumulating either as it is too light.

    Mesoscale NAM runs still insisting on 1-3 inches across the area. NOT gonna happen. 😀

    1. Oh there is a loooong way to go. Wait for it… 🙂

      Mid January is still early Winter. Writing it off way too early. You know the history. And you also know my long range forecast. 🙂

      1. I keep hearing that all over. Although it may continue to be COLD enough for snow certainly, WILL IT????????????????????

        That is the gazillion dollar question. Hope you are correct.

        I remain skeptical at the moment.

  100. Winter wonderland in boston this morning as we received around an inch here in Roxbury . Received the call after 2am . Feels mild out .

    1. Yes, it looks really nice out there. I’ll need a bit of time for clean up before
      I head out for work. 😀

  101. Before I move onto the Sunday/Monday RAINORAMA CRAPFEST, picked up
    about an inch of snow overnight. NOT doing anything now.

    NAM still shows snow till about 8PM tonight. Right. We shall see about that.
    Radar clear as can be. NO echoes at all now. NONE. Anything that is falling anywhere
    is beneath the radar beam or otherwise is so light it is not showing.

    25.2 here.

      1. HRRR wants another inch of snow during today.

        YUP, by Cracky sure looks like that will happen. Yup. 😀 😀 😀

  102. re: Monday

    06Z GFS is a little bit better than 0Z. But so was the 18Z, so it’s probably a function
    of the CRAPPIER data starved runs at 18 and 6 Z, while the 12z and 0z runs tell
    the real story.

    That being said, here is the 06Z run

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

    Here is where the EURO tales it. NICE, eh??????????

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011500/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

    CMC seems confused and thus I discount it, but IF it were onto something it gives us a chance

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015011500/gem_mslpa_us_18.png

    Today’s 12Z Runs anyone?

    But seriously, It will probably end up something between the Euro and the GFS definitely WEST of Or Over our area for RAIN. Still hoping and a wishing for a different solution/result. 12Z come on.

  104. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 39m39 minutes ago
    Winter over missive going up in flames.Record challenging cold coming for plains east Jan 25-Feb 10.This Jan winding up colder than last

  107. Light freezing mist falling.

    A light glaze atop the 1/2 to 3/4 inch snow from last night.

    Enough to get the salters/sanders out this morning, all the way to our road, which rarely happens. Its usually the plow or nothing. 🙂 🙂

  108. From NWS

    NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE COMBINE TO GENERATE AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT SLAPS EASTERN MASS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

  111. Is the big picture story for the next 10 days that we’re looking for a bit more storminess than the past week ……….

    I know we’ve been talking about the Sunday night/ Monday event for a few days and there seems to be hints of another something 9-10 days from now …..

    I personally think rain Sunday night/Monday ….. a classic case where the preceeding mildness is in place and the storm beats the returning cold air by a huge margin.

  112. Signs that the inverted trof …….. causing the coastal light snowfall and freezing drizzle …. is moving away from us …

    All the wind directions at both the Boston Harbor Buoy and Cape Cod reporting stations have come around to either north or north-northwest, whereas yesterday, they were either light east or northeast.

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