Quick Update

146 Comments

7:43AM

Low level moisture today along an inverted trough between low pressure well offshore and another well to the northwest of southern New England, enhanced by ocean moisture, with periods of light snow/freezing drizzle in eastern MA and coastal NH. This exits tonight. Arctic cold front passes during Friday with a strong shot of cold air later Friday into Saturday. High pressure moves overhead later Saturday then offshore by Sunday with a quick warmup but as another cold front approaches so will a develop low pressure area along it. This will bring rain to the region Sunday night into early Monday (will watch for an end as snow in parts of the region if cold air returns fast enough), then a return to windy/cold weather later Monday into Tuesday as intensifying low pressure moves away into eastern Canada. Cold air lasts into the middle of next week as the overall cold/dry pattern dominates.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow/freezing drizzle coastal NH through eastern MA and RI. Highs around 30. Wind light NE shifting to NW.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow showers. High around 35 through midday then falling into the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 25.
SUNDAY: Clouding up. Rain at night. Low 20. High 45.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy with rain AM. Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers PM. Temperatures falling from 40s to 20s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

146 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Your Sunday forecast is for rain at night …..

    Any feelings as to timing of the rain for the Pats game, which would be from around 6:30 to 9:30/10 ish.

    1. Tom, fwiw, my guess is sometime between 8 and 10PM.
      “May” impact the game and then again they “may” escape. Still 3 1/2
      days away.

      Further model run refinements will fine tune the timing.

  5. Thank you TK for the update.

    BTW, I GROSSLY under estimated snowfall.
    When I went out to clean off the car and walk, I took along a ruler.
    EXACTLY, PRECISELY 1/4 inch on the dot. NOT 1 inch.
    Very deceptive looking out from the 2nd floor in the dark and trying to estimate. πŸ˜€

  7. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 6m6 minutes ago
    Heard from several Mainers yesterday that the Eastern CT phenomenon may be “frost quakes” or cryoseisms.

  8. TK, I’m surprised you’ve succumbed to the idea of rain on Sun/Mon given your earlier thoughts of out to sea. I know the models show a huge negative tilt with this storm, but it’s just not jiving for me. The NOA index is predicted to go negative during that period but nothing to suggest that kind of negative tilt against an approaching cold front. The only other explanation I could see is that the storm develops so quickly and fiercely that, that is what is causing the storm to tilt so much. Let’s see what the future analysis has to say, but I’m interested in anyone else’s perspective on this.

    1. East-based -NAO maybe. Rise in heights to the east of Greenland shifting the storm track further west.

  9. I can’t help myself. I was just reading the NOAA website, and came to this:

    MOSTLY CLOUDY IN EASTERN MA WHERE
    IT WILL BE SUNNY…

    what does that mean?

      1. I kid you not. And sometimes I like to use the weather forecast for a quick reading comprehension–inference and all that. Won’t be doing that today….

  10. I know we’re still a few days away from the sun/mon storm, but how much rain are we looking at? If its substantial, with the super frozen ground, we could be looking at some flooding. It won’t take much.

    1. Ace,

      An Eariler this morning NWS discussion talked about that. They were quite concerned due to the frozen ground. Also concerned about HIGH WINDS.

      .DEPENDENT ON THE
      STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHILE EVALUATING ANALOGS
      FROM CIPS GUIDANCE THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS THAT BEAR MONITORING:

      1./ HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN / SMALL-STREAMFLOODING AS THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WELL FROZEN AND IMPERVIOUS

      2./ STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS DURING BOTH APPROACH AND EXIT OF THE SYSTEM

      3./ SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A WINTRY-MIX ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE COMPRISING OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN

      4./ THERE IS ALSO CONCERN AS TO COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS AS TIDESAROUND THE MONDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH AT 11.2 FEET.

  11. Boy I hope there were no emergency personnel that needed to get into Boston in a hurry this morning. Protesters apparently chained themselves to barrels in the middle of I-93?!??!

    1. I have staff STILL STUCK on the expressway. One left Brockton around 7AM
      still NOT here. BRUTAL.

      How about a nice gathering on the Common and a march on City Hall?
      Wouldn’t that be more reasonable?

      1. I have no issue with the protests, but these people aren’t being productive in any way. There is a growing anger towards them by even those who agree with them and they are ruining any hope for the change they are seeking. Yes, a gathering on the Common or City hall would be much more productive than putting people’s lives in danger and their own.

  12. Just not our winter, at least not one that is conducive to snow. Looks like a mostly rain event Sunday into Monday. Almost hard to believe, given that it’s been cold. Every time we have significant precipitation this winter, it winds up as rain. Obviously, this is not unheard of. But, it is a strange pattern, which I don’t see ending anytime soon. We may struggle this winter to get to 10 inches. Of course, one snowstorm would put us over 10 inches, and there’s plenty of winter left. But, do we really believe that February and Match will produce the snows that December and January have not?

  13. Shame on them I hope everyone gets locked up. How about the patients who are constantly being rushed into Boston where every second counts. Shame on them.

    1. Easton Firefighters have already posted on Facebook that they had to divert to a local hospital as they were not able to get to Boston in a reasonable transport time, affecting the patient’s ability to get to the proper hospital for treatment.

      1. I will always support our right to protest. However, protesting comes with restrictions, one of which is causing serious disruption. IMHO if heaven forbid anyone was hurt because of the protest, each and every protester should be arrested and charged to the full extent of the law.

  14. Protestors need to get the hell out of the way, so people can get to work expecially people working at the hospital

    1. From the looks of that, depending on where the low center goes from there, Foxboro might even get dry slotted for a time with more showery weather

  19. I may be alone in this, but I don’t think Sun/Mon is a lock for rain. That doesn’t mean I think it will be snow necessarily, it may be very little of anything, I’m just not sold on the idea of a big rain storm. Each successive run I have seen has been slightly colder and further east with the precip shield aside from maybe the Euro which is the most bullish on the rain and warmth. I’d feel more comfortable once this gets within the range of the shorter range models to make a call one way or the other. One thing is for sure, there is a lot of confidence on here and in the media that this is a lock for rain. Would that be the case if this was showing snow? Probably not. 3 days to go, lots can change

    1. I know its the NAM at the far reaches of its range, but at 84 hrs, the 12Z NAM shows a MUCH colder solution to sun/mon with precip just grazing eastern sections. No negative tilt whatsoever

  21. euro is not in agreement with its ens runs. Do not use it. right now. I think the gfs/canadian has a better handle on it with the storm hugging the coast, not hugging the coast and then looping into the land over to ny state

    1. What do the euro ens say? I was wondering that this morning if the ens mean agrees with the op. There’s my answer

      1. euro OPerational has the system traveling up the coast then transfering energy to a low over ny state as it passes by us. THe ens shows exactly what the gfs and canadian is showing

  23. Something going on here. Visibility has come way down to perhaps 1 1/2 miles or so.

    I look out the window and can’t see anything falling???

    Fog? Very light drizzle/mist? I dunno

    Going out shortly.

  24. To follow up regarding with what sue said about an Easton ambulance . That ambulance was coming from Easton from the scene of a very serious car accident where they needed to get to boston stat and could not. Losers get a life

    1. You are correct. It was for a spinal cord injury, John. The ambulance had to reroute from the number 1 trauma hospital to Brockton. I literally felt sick to my stomach when I heard that. Every one of them should be held for some form of endangerment.

      1. Boston / Brockton hospital like an apple and an orange . That’s all I’m saying cause they went to far today . Hope the patient gets the medical care that they need.

  25. EURO
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011500&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=0

    EURO ENS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015011500/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_5.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015011500/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_6.png
    gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011512/gfs_z500_mslp_us_16.png
    gfs ens
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015011506/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_20.png
    canadian
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015011500/gem_z500_mslp_us_18.png

    SO with this information. storm travels right across southeast mass/cape and islands. giving easter areas rain but interior snow/mix

    3. Yes, surprisingly, its back to snow.

      About 10 minutes ago, there were half dollar snow flakes, that lasted for about 5 minutes. Perhaps that is those briefly heavier echoes on the radar ?

  34. Very small pockets of enhanced precip falling as snow. These may coat things a bit more before it all winds down in a few hours.

    Bright day tomorrow but the Arctic door opens again for late tomorrow and Saturday. Big recovery in temp by Sunday for the rain event. The only snow we’ll see around here from that may be rain to snow showers sometime on Monday.

    Looking ahead, the window of opportunity for snowstorms does open when previously advertised: Right around January 24 and for several weeks thereafter if all goes as I expect. This does NOT mean we are going to get clobbered a bunch of times. It just means it will have the opportunity to snow in a more meaningful way several times during that period of time.

  35. Can barely see the snow coming down but it is creating a fine coating which surprised me when I just went outside.

    1. Don’t count on it. Really way too warm for snow Sunday night. Maybe a few snow showers on Monday, with no accumulation. Sorry to bear bad news, but I’m realistic about our snow chances in the immediate future.

  37. I don’t know Joshua, I’m not sold. Nam coming into range now. Much colder than GFS or Euro. Cold aloft too, just not sure if it translates to snow. Oh by the way its the 18z so you know it’s good!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150115+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_078_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150115+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    1. Yes, but …. look at other things within the same run.

      Just east of New England, its easy to see the retreating southerly flow. Now, over New England, there’s not a big push evident that would bring the cold air in time, along with the precip, to cause snow.

      Its like other things on the run of the NAM itself contradict the thicknesses and boundary layer temps that it shows.

      1. That NAM run, even if it was remotely close to a good one, wouldn’t be a snow run. But the run itself is worthless.

  38. Its been a strange winter in that ……

    We might have what ….. 5 to 6 inches total snow, season to date ….

    But, it feels like its snowed in 7-10 different events already. Its just been a dusting to 1 inch each time.

    And, its been plenty cold.

    I feel as though winter has definitely made its presence fealt in spite of the lack of true measureable snow.

    1. I have to disagree with you there. November felt like winter (when we got majority of our few inches to date) but Dec felt nothing like winter. So far, Jan has felt like winter but just due to temps. Yes an occasional flake in the air, dusting to an inch here and there, but to feel like winter, I need a snowpack. Seeing the dormant earth every day is not enough.

      1. If we were to count the number of “wintery” days since the start of meteorological winter, u might just barely need 2 hands.

      2. Yes, the dormant, brown earth does get a bit depressing over time. πŸ™‚

        I agree Dec wasn’t winter like tempwise, but, the short days full of darkness put it into the winter column for me, every year !! πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  39. This winter is not like 11-12. There has been more cold just in the first half of January compared to that winter. I think even though will be below normal in snowfall this winter will not be in the top 5 for least snowiest winters on record.

    1. I agree ….

      Hey JJ, have you fealt any of these minor earthquakes down there ?

      I think I saw that parts of CT have been having them the last couple of days, is that down by where you are ?

      1. Tom I have not felt any shaking here in Watertown from those Earthquakes in Plainfield I am in the western part of CT
        where the earthquakes are happening is in the eastern part of state. That town had another
        one today 1.9. WTNH this morning was talking to a guy from the weston observatory and the guy said this morning
        in response to the question is this a precursor to a big one coming. He said its highly unlikely.

  41. 100% agree with your comments above, Tom. The amount of snow is low, but we had several significant rainstorms in December and some decent cold shots in January. That’s one type of Winter. Not all Winters have to be cold with above normal snow to be like Winter. That’s just ONE end of the spectrum.

    1. but the one end of the spectrum that i like , and here is hoping for a hot and sunny summer being enlongated for the entire 3 months πŸ˜€

      1. Summer’s come in all types here as well, but I wouldn’t mind a long, hot one myself. πŸ™‚

        1. Only time we disagree that I recall…on weather. I love the hot, sultry summer days. But it is difficult to be outside for prolonged periods and I love being outside. In winter this is my favorite time of day. I sit by the window, listen to music and watch the night arrive. In summer, I do the same but on the deck.

  43. Been snowing lightly for a couple hours in Wrentham, just a light coating, but it looks nice πŸ™‚

    Sunday/Monday system is all rain save for maybe some backside flurries, and models are probably overdoing the precipitation for it in general. Next really interesting opportunity would be the system around 1/24 as TK has mentioned. Very wide spread of possibilities for that storm of course, given how far out it is. But I’m sure the hype meter on that one will increase dramatically in the coming days.

  44. Heading to Bruins game. Will update blog later tonight after I return home.

    My only worry is that they have won 4 in a row and I have not seen a win in person for a long time now. πŸ˜›

  45. Hate this weather. Would rather one snow storm than constant daily flurries and mist. Getting old.

    1. One more week to go, then a more “snowier” pattern at least according to TK. We will see. πŸ™‚

      1. I’m not clear if it is a snowier pattern or a colder pattern that, if a system were to materialize, would be both cold enough to snow and guided in our direction. I’ll have to remember to ask TK

  46. Have a good time at the Bruins game TK and don’t jinx them. πŸ˜‰ I had pretty much given up on them and was ready to put them in the same category as the Celtics…DONE for the year in terms of the playoffs. Having said that, I still don’t believe that they will be any real contender for Lord’s Stanley Cup. One too many bad moves over the last few years.

  47. I am somewhat surprised considering all this recent arctic cold that the Boston Harbor water temp hasn’t gone down much, if at all lately. It has been stuck in the low 40s for awhile now…anywhere between 41 and 43F.

    Even if the pattern radically changes and we get those opportunities for snow, we may have to constantly fight rain/snow lines with winds off the ocean. We can’t expect due N or NNE winds all the time.

    2. And as the sun angle starts getting appreciably higher (not that long from not), it’s going to be even harder to cool that water off.

      1. If I am not mistaken, ocean temps bottom out in early/mid February so there is still time, but it won’t matter if those temps are above normal.

        1. I didn’t know that about the bottoming. Interesting…and makes sense. Just about in alignment as to when the average daily highs start going up.

  48. Based on the radar this afternoon, I wouldn’t be surprised if Logan ends up with the “jackpot” amount of snow compared with the rest of the city of Boston. We will see tomorrow morning with the updated climotology report. Currently Logan reported just a trace.

  50. I had a feeling the Bruins would make a run and their winning tonight.
    Rangers now over 4 periods without scoring a goal after being shut out at home by the Islanders or as sports talk radio show host out of NYC calls them the Ice Landers.

  51. 18Z GFS once again a more Eastern track and colder solution. Still rain, but OH
    so close with this run. Sure it’s the 18Z. We shall see.

  52. Remember: Ocean temp is not driven solely by the weather pattern but that as well as ocean currents, which do change from time to time.

  53. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 39s39 seconds ago
    #Boston came in with a whopping 0.8″ of snow today, bringing seasonal total to 5.5″. Zzzzzzzz

    1. Now only 3.5″ away from the record least snowiest 9.0″ = 1936-37 Winter! πŸ˜‰

      I think we were actually much closer at this same time in January 2012.

  55. Not a nice commute today and really not good that the ambulance couldn’t get through. I hope the person is ok. It took me over 90 minutes from North Attleboro to Quincy!

    1. Makes complete sense north, my wife has got to deal with these roads too, frustrating to say the least, enjoy your day πŸ™‚

    1. NAM is not reliable beyond 60 hours. Also, that low is going to be forming in an airmass that is mild at all levels.

  59. Yawn….Good morning.

    System for Sunday looking more and more like a pooforama. Lot’s of hype for something that may turn out to be mostly Nothing. Not impressed at all. In fact I’m not impressed with ANY weather features looking ahead. Even the previously juicy looking system for the 24th looks to be YET ANOTHER Suppressed system. AND THEN…

    AND what happened to the advertised cold? Look at this piece of shit, compliments of the GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015011606&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=372

    Same old Crap over and over. We get cold with SUPPRESSED systems followed by
    a warm up and a freakin CUTTER or INSIDER!!!! I HATE THIS. HATE IT.

    I’d MUCH rather it be 60 every day than this CRAP.

    Perhaps something will materialize from the innocuous BLABBER I see on the maps?
    Right! And I’ll hit the Lottery as well.

    1. Hmmm really….from NWS

      SHOWERS LOOK TO ENVELOP THE REGION TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE LATER-HALF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT MONDAY. THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.

      Given what I see, that seems mighty GENEROUS with the prcip.

      I see 1/2 inch to perhaps 3/4 inch tops. We shall see.

    2. For Sunday, it concerned me out of the gate that east didn’t mean colder system but OTS b/c of such a sharp precip. cutoff.

      It’s January……and that track should put snow down in Boston.

      Concerned about Feb. even if the tracks are right.

      1. Boston “MAY” break the record for least snowy Winter the way
        things are going. That GFS run broke my heart. Absolutelt\y was NOT NOT NOT expecting something like that.

        Despite everything we keep hearing, I don’t see much changing or any signs of it changing any time soon.

        Sorry, but patience is a virtue I do NOT possess. I Can’t stand this weather.

        1. The GFS, its upgrade and its cousin ….. they all stink !! The next run will be vastly different I’m sure. Give it the due trustworthiness it has earned, which is nada. πŸ™‚

  60. From NWS for Foxboro…

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011606/gfs_apcpn_neus_13.png

    Well a couple of BRIGHT NOTES:

    PAT’s on Sunday, rain or no.

    And Bruins finally looking like a team and what about that
    David PastrňÑk kid. I only saw the clips, but does he ever LOOK GOOD!!!!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Pastr%C5%88%C3%A1k

    AND the Bruins were smart for a change and will keep him with the big clud and NOT send him back down. Date has passed so he’s on the big club through the rest of the season. GREAT move!!!

  61. Take away the clouds this morning and the brightness and how “early” it seemed to arrive was so nice. It was 6:30 am and I’m thinking …. who turned on the house lights before me, and turns out it was dawn setting in on the eastern horizon. SOLAR winter is nearing its end. πŸ™‚

    I believe enough snow to make everyone happy is still coming during the rest of the still long winter πŸ™ πŸ™ πŸ™ πŸ™ to go.

    As soon as next Wednesday, I don’t think that clipper and what it will do is a lost cause. Wont have to worry about whether its cold enough or not.

  62. BE CAUTIOUS about taking computer runs verbatim right now.
    Pattern change underway, slowly…

    Blog updated!

  63. Yup Tom Sunrise 7:05:32 Sunset 4:42:49, we are now gaining 1+ min’s per day of daylight, and in just a month sunrise will be 6:37:21 and sunset will be 5:17:31
    Good day πŸ™‚

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