Fast-Front Friday

143 Comments

7:32AM

An arctic cold front will fly across southeastern New England this morning and early afternoon accompanied only but some passing clouds and possibly a snow shower in a few locations. Behind it, the gate to a frigid air mass will be open and that air will come in late today through Saturday as high pressure builds in. This high gets offshore by early Sunday and a return southerly flow warms it up, but another cold front approaches quickly and low pressure forms along it as it slows down while passing by. This will bring a slug of rain into the region Sunday afternoon and night which may end as snow showers early Monday. Windy and colder weather returns during Monday. Next week, 2 cold and dry days Tuesday and Thursday will likely sandwich a day of light snowfall as a weak low pressure area passes through from the west on Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Slight chance of passing snow showers. Highs 30-35 through midday then falling through the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 0 northwest of Boston to 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs around 20. Diminishing NW wind.
SUNDAY: Clouding up. Rain developing PM, may start as mix far NW. Low 15. High 40.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy with rain or snow showers early. Partly to mostly sunny after. Temperatures fall through 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

143 thoughts on “Fast-Front Friday”

  1. Thanks tk 🙂
    Yup Tom Sunrise 7:05:32 Sunset 4:42:49, we are now gaining 1+ min’s per day of daylight, and in just a month sunrise will be 6:37:21 and sunset will be 5:17:31
    Good day 🙂
    Reply

  2. I assume having 5.1 inches of snow to date is normal? Personally I think we are much below average, we should have received about 17 inches to date, again is 5 inches of snow to date perfectly normal? Thanks 🙂

    1. I tend to agree I do not believe it is normal. But I also believe it will finish normal to near normal, good day.

      1. Virtually NEVER!!

        It’s all how it ends up.

        TK, your honest current assessment as to whether or not
        Boston makes it to average snowfall by Season’s end?

        Odds? I say 10-25% chance at best.

  6. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 5m5 minutes ago
    Snow showers likely will survive in scattered form to the South Coast of New England by late day, embedded squall possible.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 6m6 minutes ago
    Timing of scattered snow showers/squalls: Lunch hour Central NH to Berkshires, early afternoon Northern MA, mid-afternoon Boston Metro

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 6m6 minutes ago
    Reports of thundersnow/heavy snow squalls Upstate NY indicate ample energy for scattered snow squalls/showers to survive to the coast later

    2. I feel like history says squalls like those in upstate NY don’t often survive the trip, much like a line of thunderstorms that look great on radar only to fall apart as they enter the coastal plain

      1. Generally agree, but Dave Epstein is a pretty smart guy
        and a very fine met. In his opinion, they survive the trip
        as the lift and dyamics are maintained. As noted:
        Thundersnow in the MORNING. Dynamics are there so
        it doesn’t depend on sunshine and day time heating
        like the thunderstorms.

        Chances are we get at least snow showers, IF not a
        decent squall.

        We shall see. Something to get me to the afternoon at least.

        1. We have resorted to a chance of snow showers to get us through the day, brutal winter thus far in terms of snow excitement

    7. Oh dear, Hadi. Was it confirmed via test that it is the flu? Did you have the shot? Perhaps you said somewhere you did. Feel better quickly.

  9. Today is one of my favorite types of winter days. Recent light coating of snow. Relatively “mild” morning ahead of Arctic front. Risk of snow showers early to mid afternoon then shifting wind and falling temps.

      1. Probably not. But I think at most we see a broken line of light to moderate with isolated brief heavy snow showers.

  11. I saw this graffiti on a rock: “TK loves snow showers and squalls more than big snowstorms. ”

    How did they KNOW?

  13. Not to open a can of worms…but, as expected, NOAA and NASA have officially announced this morning that the year 2014 was Earth’s warmest on record.

      1. Since records have been taken may seem like a huge sample size to many of us, but in larger terms, its just a blip on the radar in earth’s history. There’s really no significance.

    2. I believe every year on record this century has been warmest with each year outdoing the previous. I think it has some significance. However, we are a blip in time. We may be doing our best to shorted that blip 🙂

    1. Deep sigh. We are really concerned, as I am sure is the case with many who have other underlying illnesses, about Mac. There is a 23% chance it will work and also it may decrease severity. However, report I read didn’t specify if there is a difference between four and three strain shots.

      1. Each year its a crap shoot -well not really-but the drug companies (and I would imagine the WHO (not the group) and the CDC) try to figure what strain(s) are going to hit. Once they’ve made that decision then the vaccines go into production. Up until this year each vaccine was what they called Trivalent (meaning it covered three strains). This year it became Quadravelent. I think they didn’t get it right this year as far as I can tell. I ordered over 18000 doses for the med center last spring (for this season) and we have actually ordered another 1000 in the last month as we ran out.

        1. Thank you, Keith.

          We had a four strain last year, Keith, but it was in very short supply. I wonder if it was short supply because it was a trial?? I never got the shot until I got the flu. Anything I can do to mitigate that is worth a try to me. Son had a really bad reaction to shot years ago so cannot have it again.

          Doctor was adamant about all of us having four strand this year because of Mac. He is also now warning us to be very, very careful. Not sure how to do that but we do our best.

          I’m curious. The oncologist said that the grandkids should not get the nasal spray but should get the vaccine. I didn’t ask because one grand broke through the nasal spray a few years ago so my girls make sure they get regular shot. Do you know what the reasoning was?

          1. I don’t know that much about the nasal spray except that’s more expensive (not sure if insurance covers it) and is not as effective (from what I’ve heard). We looked at it but decided against it.

            1. I believe it’s free cause that’s what my son gets or flu must is that the same thing. It’s been well advertised that the vac this year is not protecting people.

              1. It’s free for the patient maybe…not always for the medical facility. The state provides a certain amount each for kids but that amount is a drop in the bucket compared to what we get for the adults.

  16. I never get them and I am glad I don’t. I know some years are better than others and it certainly sucks to get it. I take the risk.

  17. I don’t think there is any way those snow showers make it to the coastal plain. Maybe 5% of us in the eastern section see a snow shower.

  19. 12 NAM: Will comment later.
    Flu shot: Will comment later.
    2014 Global temp: Will comment later.
    Shrimp scampi over pasta and a side of fish chowder are my current priority. 😉

    1. Awww come on. I have not had good fish chowder since I was at the Fireplace in Brookline. Did you make it? Recipe??

  21. Thanks, TK. Agree with you 100%. Today is a beautiful winter’s day. Tomorrow will be, too. I made a point of waking up earlier than normal to do an 8-mile run while the sun was rising to our east. Air is crisp. Certainly not a cold morning.

    I am disappointed at getting more rain on Sunday and Monday.

  25. For what it’s worth, the 12z Euro throws down a solid 6-7″ snow for the midweek system (not the late week/next weekend system that currently looks to stay well south of us), in a bullseye over Norfolk, Bristol, and Plymouth Counties. Shows about 4-5″ for Boston, and only a couple inches for the Worcester area, where they miss the moisture, as well as lower totals on the Cape, where temps are iffy. Was interesting to see though. Other models are much weaker/drier.

  26. just got a “special weather update” on my phone for a snow squall moving through essex county… random i am 33 years old and dont ever recall getting one of these before as an adult. (albeit when i was a kid i prob really didnt care)

    1. I can see the grey/yellow snow clouds to the north. Sun is out here and solid snow is falling – awesome to see

  30. I’m hearing about snow squalls. Radar not looking impressive for Boston at the moment. Perhaps the one out by Vikie will drop some snow here? Still watching.
    Looks dark N&W, but NOT particularly so. NOT impressed anyway.

    1. It was north of me, OS. I could see the clouds. What we had might have been overflow if there is any such thing as the sun was out the entire time and it was very short lived. The wind howled after it had passed but just for a few minutes.

    2. Trust me, they were impressive where they occurred. Radar does not often accurately represent the intensity of low-top snow squalls. It’s basically only useful to determine the position of the squalls. That’s about it.

  32. Now I KNOW why I was NOT impressed.

    URGENT REPORT:

    A few flakes just blew by in the wind.

    THAT IS ALL!!!! Sky brightening now. 😆 😆 😆 😆

    Use EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING!!!

    OMG, the SKY is FALLING!!!!!

    DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!! DANGER!!!!

  33. On a serious note, it looks as though the North Shore may have been blasted
    by some HEAVY SNOW squalls. Just NOT here is all.

  35. This is the thing…
    Scattered does not mean widespread. These squalls are a big deal where they are heavy. Parts of North Shore near zero vis and covered roads along with strong wind gusts. When I was driving home I was south of it and could see a wall of white to my north. It was damn impressive.

    See my comment above about radar not being too useful with these.

    1. TK – even from this far away it was majorly impressive. Looks as if some more might be going through north of here but the sky is not as impressive.

      Am I correct that it was strong enough to throw some of the “walls” of snow (minimal but a wall nonetheless) down this way? Sun was out and it was majorly beautiful to see

      1. You were getting a great view of lines to your north. 2 of them have gone by here both with light snow showers. The third is moving in now but is weaker-looking visually and on radar.

  36. Some these squalls prompted special weather statements. These just like thunderstorms in the summer not every town sees one but those that do you will know it and it will come down hard for about 15 -30 minutes and coat the ground up an sometimes accumulate some.

  37. I know its next Wednesday, but from this far out, any thoughts on whether we’ll need …

    A) a microscope to see what did or didnt fall

    B) broom

    C) shovel

    D) plow

    🙂

      1. LOL …..

        One big difference.

        Longshot knows what the correct answer is.

        I’m sitting here shrugging my shoulders, as usual. 🙂 🙂

  38. Besides the snow squalls, another part of these arctic fronts I like is that they form cumulus clouds.

    No, they are not the monster’s of summertime, but, in the middle of winter, there are enough days with the mid and low level cloudiness, that it sure is nice to see something thats towards the cumulus type instability cloud.

  41. The NAM is playing tricks with Sunday system. Back more to the East.
    Still looks more like a FROPA with a little wave on it, than a big storm system.
    Very narrow swatch of precipitation. NAM looks like it want to change it over
    near the end.

    1. I can see it ending as a mix of rain/sleet/wet snow in parts of eastern MA.

      There are still some people looking for a sneaky snowstorm out of this. Not happening with a wave embedded in a very mild airmass at all levels.

    2. Honestly, it’s always looked like that. When NWS was talking it up mild week about inverted trough, blah, blah I was like what? It’s a glorified open wave on a front.

  46. It’s been almost a year since the last time we shoveled, 2nd week of Feb 2014 was last time, we didn’t get much snow after mid feb last year, but it sure was very cold

    1. Very cold/dry March last year. That month helped set up the precip. deficit we saw for much of the middle of 2014. March can often be quite wet but last year we fell behind.

  48. Beautiful clear night with tons of stars Went to wayside in with friends. They were having a belated 12th ball so it was tons of fun watching the folks in mid 1700 period dress with women in gowns and men in dress uniform.

    Speaking of Sudbury, we have not heard from rainshine in an awfully long time.

    1. Harvey actually hinted at some decent accumulation possible for next Wednesday if storm really develops just south of us. Of course, given this winter so far, 2-4″ would be considered “decent”. 😉

      1. Next weekend, next Wednesday, based on one operational run of one model that has a tendency to over-develop things. Too early to go public with those.

        Oh and the latest operation run has taken the “big one” for the weekend completely out of the picture, for the moment. All that shows is inconsistency and that it’s too early to know for sure.

          1. It has done that with just about every low pressure area. JMA has pointed this out many times.

            It still has a strong point of often “seeing” things early, but not always having them in the right place and especially the intensity being an error. It’s ok for an approximation knowing that adjustments will be needed.

            Other times, it just has no real idea of what to do. 2 runs in a row with a 40/70 significant storm then POOF.

  50. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    It can be too cold for snow.
    A. True
    B. False

    Answer later today.

    1. Kind of a trick question bc it can snow at 0 degrees but there’s times that it’s so cold it doesn’t snow, I say b

      1. Agree with Charlie that it’s kind of a trick question, but I’ll say B also. I’d be interested in the explanation if it’s true though.

    3. It is a trick question. Since we saw it snowing at below zero.
      Also arctic areas receive snow, albeit small amounts.

      B FALSE.

  52. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Ice covers what percentage of the Earth?
    A. 2%
    B. 3%
    C. 4%
    D. 5%

    Answer later today.

  54. Good morning. After looking over the maps, I clearly am at a loss.
    I guess I can only chalk it up to the pattern being in transition as Tk said.
    Systems coming and going all over the place and by different models in different
    locations at different times. NO model consistency whatsoever.

    So, I’ll sit back and watch to see what happens. Only thing that seems a certainty
    is the RAINORAMA for the Pat’s game tomorrow. I don’t like that. Wet Ball = anything can happen.

    Not feeling ANYTHING at all for mid-week. Whatever there is, appears to be
    quite weak.

    What we get for weather after Monday is Question Mark and the Mysterians

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzKf18E1nsc

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Question_Mark_%26_the_Mysterians

    This Winter BLOWS!!!!!!!!!

    1. It’s funny you mention what you do at the end of your first paragraph. I mentioned the same thing in a blog that I just posted.

      But I don’t agree about the Winter blowing… well other than the wind. 😀

    1. I actually love that kind of transition, but it is not only vintage New England. It happens in the Plains more often. 🙂

  56. Other than tomorrow, reading the NWS discussion leaves one oozing in with confidence.
    NOT!!! 😀 😀

  57. New blog posted!

    I will repost the quizzes and all answers there. Give me a few minutes please. 😀

Comments are closed.