Saturday Update

108 Comments

9:12AM

SUMMARY…
Arctic high pressure approaches then crests overhead today with bright sun, cold, and diminishing wind. High pressure moves offshore to the east tonight, southerly flow develops, temperatures rise, and clouds increase. A cold front approaches from the west with milder southerly flow ahead of it, but rapidly developing low pressure along the Mid Atlantic Coast will move northward and link up with the front, bringing an increasing risk of rain, first to the west, then swinging eastward through Sunday night. Some of the heaviest rain from this system may coincide with part of the AFC Championship Game in Foxboro MA between the Patriots and Colts. The center of low pressure will pass across eastern MA overnight and rocket away into Maine and eventually southeastern Canada. Rain will shut off rapidly from southwest to northeast before cold enough air arrives to switch it to snow in all areas of central MA and southern NH south and east, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in southwestern NH. Monday, the MLK Jr holiday, will feature sun and clouds, windy, and cool weather, though the air mass behind this system will not be as cold as some of the recent cold we have seen here. High pressure to the west and low pressure still exerting influence on this area from Canada will bring a bright but chilly and gusty day Tuesday. I’m a little conflicted on how to look at what happens from Wednesday through Saturday of next week. Current thoughts are that low pressure coming out of the Great Lakes will fall apart Wednesday which will be a variably cloudy day with spotty light snow at moist, and a second low pressure wave will develop offshore Thursday which may end up a cloudier day here but precipitation getting near the South Coast but staying offshore for the most part. If this scenario were to play out, Friday would likely end up fair, breezy, and chilly. Long way to go to work out the details from midweek on. Computer guidance will have some difficulty as we are entering a transitional pattern.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine rules but some high clouds appearing in the western sky by later in the day. Highs upper 10s to middle 20s, coldest hills in northwest suburbs, least cold Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this morning diminishing to nearly calm this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures rising toward 30. Wind light SW early, SW 5-15 MPH later.
SUNDAY: A hint of sunshine parts of eastern MA around sunrise otherwise cloudy. Rain developing midday and afternoon mainly central MA and southwestern NH with scattered rain showers to the east. Highs 40-45. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy, pushing west to east across the region through late evening, then rapidly ending southwest to northeast overnight. Breaking clouds following. Lows around 35. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW overnight.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 18. High 33.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light snow or snow showers. Low 21. High 31.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or rain near South Coast. Low 22. High 35.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 23. High 33.

108 thoughts on “Saturday Update”

  1. REPOST OF FIRST QUIZ AND GUESSES

    Longshot says:
    January 17, 2015 at 5:58 AM

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    It can be too cold for snow.
    A. True
    B. False

    Answer later today.

    Charlie says:
    January 17, 2015 at 6:49 AM

    Kind of a trick question bc it can snow at 0 degrees but there’s times that it’s so cold it doesn’t snow, I say b

    WxWatcher says:
    January 17, 2015 at 7:21 AM

    Agree with Charlie that it’s kind of a trick question, but I’ll say B also. I’d be interested in the explanation if it’s true though.

    Vicki says:
    January 17, 2015 at 8:08 AM

    B

    Old Salty says:
    January 17, 2015 at 8:24 AM

    It is a trick question. Since we saw it snowing at below zero.
    Also arctic areas receive snow, albeit small amounts.

    B FALSE.

    Tom says:
    January 17, 2015 at 8:36 AM

    A and B.

    Based on the wording of the question, I could make a legitimate argument for both answers.

  2. REPOST OF SECOND QUIZ AND GUESSES

    Longshot says:
    January 17, 2015 at 6:53 AM

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Ice covers what percentage of the Earth?
    A. 2%
    B. 3%
    C. 4%
    D. 5%

    Answer later today.

    Charlie says:
    January 17, 2015 at 7:11 AM

    I saw this on wbz, I won’t answer 🙂

    WxWatcher says:
    January 17, 2015 at 7:22 AM

    No idea on this one, I’ll guess C 🙂

    Vicki says:
    January 17, 2015 at 8:09 AM

    D

    Old Salty says:
    January 17, 2015 at 8:25 AM

    D

    Tom says:
    January 17, 2015 at 8:36 AM

    C.

    JimmyJames says:
    January 17, 2015 at 7:34 AM

    B for the first one
    C for the second one

  3. O.S., though we may not share the same opinion about the SUCKINESS of this Winter, because I just like any type of weather, I do completely agree with you on the low confidence forecast aspect of next week. You picked that out quite easily. I still think you may have missed your calling as an on-air met. You’d be a hit. 😛

    1. Thanks for the kind words. It was my intention, believe me. Not necessarily on air, but to be a met somewhere.

      If on air, I’d probably lose it one time and get fired.
      You know something like:

      “You know folks, this Winter BLOWS!!”
      Or
      “This Winter SUCKS!”

      OR
      “Another FACUCKTA Lakes Cutter!!!!”

      Etc etc etc 😆 😆

    2. To me, if it doesn’t snow, let it be 60 and then bring on SPRING.

      I’m getting the distinct feeling we make it out of January SANS any significant
      snow. That leaves us with a fairly short Window, 4-6 weeks, to get something
      done and make hay. Is that even possible?

      Winter of 68-69 was about a 4 week period. From about 2/11-3/10 or so
      and that was it. BUT where I lived in Millis, it included not 1 but 2 2 foot
      snow storms in February and another smaller but intense March storm
      with WHITE OUT Conditions.

      SO, it CAN happen. WILL it? Not feeling it just yet. Somehow I think the
      elements will conspire against us, EVEN if we make it into the better pattern.
      Systems will track “Just” Inside or “Just” Outside. One after the other
      after the other. We shall see.

      1. I like that you keep an open mind, as a snow lover, that it can happen. We’ve seen it. And the signs are there of a snowier pattern. Just have to see how it comes together.

  4. Many thanks for this morning’s update.

    I agree with your assessment for Wednesday. It appears it just wants to fall apart
    as it moves Eastward. 😀

    Worried about the game tomorrow. Pat’s “should” be OK, but with that kind of rain,
    anything can happen. If the Colts prevent the Pat’s from running, I don’t particularly
    like a passing game in pouring rain. IF anyone can get it done, it’s Brady, but it still
    gives one pause. Could end up a closer game than we would like with the Pat’s still
    prevailing.

    Hey, TK, when do you think the models will get a better handle on the pattern?
    Thanks

  5. Interesting.

    Today’s NAM now wants to develop the stronger system more off shore
    and down the coast. No snow or anything close here, but it seems to want
    to SHUT off the precip here and pick it up well South East of here.

    Hmmmm

  6. I think the rain Sunday helps the Pats. Playing against a team from a dome stadium, with an offense that depends on a young quarterback throwing the ball well to score, against a team with experience in bad conditions, with proven success running the ball against this same team and a future hall of fame quarterback who can still make big plays no matter than conditions. I like our chances 🙂

    Having said that, if recent history is any indication, we’ll fall behind by two touchdowns within about two minutes of the opening kickoff and have to play from behind all game 😀

  7. Patriots game…going to be closer than many think. I know how we have had a ground attack against them and all but that was when their front 7 was beat up. Though it will be a messy rainy, windy day and we are going against a dome team, though they do have adam as their field goal kicker. Just imagine if he wins the game winner 🙁

    2. I agree about a close game. Radio folks were flipping out about the line only being 6.5. I think the weather had something to do with that which they never mentioned. That said, last time, Jonas Gray ran all over them, but he is likely out for this game. Blount is just as good you say? Not so fast. Blount is a different type of runner than Gray. Gray is more athletic and gets to the outsides much quicker. Blount is a straight ahead runner with below average speed. With the Pats O-line beat up this time around against Indy, opening up holes for Blount will be very difficult. He will get easily stuffed. The only way they can be successful running the ball is with Bolden who has a similar running style to Gray.

      1. Also, these arent your grandfather’s Colts. Yes they play in a dome, but Luck isnt Manning who shrinks when the weather is bad, hes a lot tougher than that and will handle the elements well. Worried about this game but i think the Pats will pull it out 27-24

      2. The ONLY way the Pats will be successful is with Brady throwing the ball, IF the weather allows it. The Pat’s Ain’t running the ball with Blount, Boulden Gray or Dr. Suez!

        1. Sorry…Pats will run the ball..maybe not as much as I would like but the Colts running D is not that good. (ranked in the middle of the pack iirc). You have to try to take advantage of that if you can.

          1. It depends on which poison the Colts choose.
            IF due to the weather, the COLTS decide to take away the run, they’ll stuff the line and take it away, daring Tom to deal with the elements and throw the ball.

            Here’s one prediction.

            The Pat’s rarely run the ball tomorrow.

            We shall see.

            1. I understand that, but IF they stuff the line, Blount and his Gravely Tractor will
              NOT get through. It depends upon the
              Colts defensive alignment and approach.

              Worse case scenario.

              It pours buckets. Colts stuff the line.
              Pat’s Cannot run. Brady can’t see his
              receivers it’s raining so hard, or if he can
              the ball slips out of his hands as rivers
              of water come cascading off of the ball OR it is so windy the ball doesn’t go
              where Tom wants OR a combination of the above.

              Look, I hope the Pat’s blow the Colts away. I’m just saying with the weather this game is going to be close, very close.
              NO CAKE WALK tomorrow.

              Just trying to be real. I still think the PATS come away winners, Just NOT
              easily.

    1. If it’s any consolation, the storm from the south will pass right over eastern MA anyway. 😛

  13. Let me see. Today is January 17, 2015

    January 17th

    The 2 main buoys out there, Stellwagen and Boston
    are at 42.3 and 41.9 Degrees.

    That is amazingly MILD for this time of year. Someone mentioned it the other
    day.

    Tk said it can be due to ocean currents.

    Did we forget, as TOM has pointed out, there is a huge batch of anomalously warmer
    water in the Gulf of Maine. I’m thinking that eddies from the The Labrador Current,
    which has a tendency to sometimes go farther south and/or east than normal, might be responsible for our waters actually staying milder. Yeah I know the Labrador current is a COLD current. Funny what Mother Nature will do to us. 😀

      2. And this year it’s not much snow but colder days. Running pretty solidly below normal in temp this month…but that should come as no surprise per WHW long range Winter forecast. 😉

  14. re: Wednesday

    12z GFS has it COMPLETELY GO POOF! Can’t even locate it on the surface map.
    Hilarious. SInce this has been the trend, NOT looking good for Wednesday. SEE YA

    Next, please. 😀

    1. Wednesday’s poof system’s energy will be hanging offshore Thursday and I think we end up with low pressure out there and possibly an onshore flow and lots of cloud cover, much like last Wednesday turned out. That’s one possible scenario. But that may set the table for something a few days later with a slightly different setup in the atmosphere this time.

  16. For people from overseas or even simply Americans not from New England, seeing rain in our forecast tomorrow doesn’t seem possible. I was at Starbucks this morning and an English tourist asked me “how is it possible that it rains tomorrow, we’ve so much been looking forward to snow.” I understand where they are coming from. Temperature volatility never happens in England. Transitions are always gradual. Many parts of the world have much more gradual transitions and far less volatility. Of course, there are places like Denver in the U.S. where volatility is the norm.

    I’m very disappointed in the fact that it’s going to rain tomorrow. Since late November, our pattern has been stubborn to say the least, with not one Low tracking the way we want it to (with the High in place to our north). Looking ahead, I see warmer days ahead and little or no chances of significant snow. Even though I like the cold, sunny days. It’s a waste to have cold air here with no snow. If I had to guess anything I’d say February features warmer temperatures, with a couple of Lows tracking perfectly for snow EXCEPT insufficient cold air for the coast. Just one of those years.

    1. One would think they should know that the climate is not the same in all parts of the world, so it should not be a huge surprise to them, if they have done a little self-educating, that a variable pattern such as this is not really unusual at all here. 🙂

  18. I still don’t subscribe to the theory of “wasted” cold air. Cold air is cold air. Maybe it’s the fact that I really like cold/dry patterns anyway. 🙂 This is no waste to me. It’s beautiful out there. 😀

    1. You can feel that way if you want. Your privilege. However, To me and others, COLD air WITHOUT SNOW = WASTED!! 😀 😀 😀

  19. Sad Day. Bob Wilson has passed.

    Glenn Ordway ‏@GlennDOrdway 1h1 hour ago
    I was saddened to hear of the passing of Bruins voice Bob Wilson. Spent 2 years in the booth with him..wonderful man and great PBP guy

  20. Hmmm Euro is in and IS interesting for Wednesday. Some Energy is available.
    Why so different from GFS? I dunno.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_5.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011712/ecmwf_z500a_us_5.png

    JMA as well

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015011712/jma_mslpa_us_5.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015011712/jma_z500a_us_5.png

    Waiting on Wundermap for more details

  21. NAH,

    What little action there is = Off shore
    Perhaps an inch or 2 South of the City.

    Oh well, it’s still a few days off. Perhaps something will happen? Probably not.

  23. TK, I love the cold and dry weather, too. But, a snowstorm of significance would make it feel even more like winter. Plus, this cold and dry pattern is NOT good for lawns and shrubbery. Evergreens, large trees, yews, are fine. But, other vegetation does not do well when the air is harshly cold and there is no blanket of snow to protect and nourish.

    1. They bounce back though. They adapt, “knowing” that there is not always a protective snowcover. Everything that gets knocked down bounces back when conditions improve.

      Weather and climate is about highs and lows, ups and downs, extremes on both ends and everything in between. The Earth just doing what the Earth does. 🙂

  24. From Upton NY NWS office

    A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT…THEN TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ITS MAIN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM…AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND…SO SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

    1. I’m with you. Most frustrating so far.
      We’ll see IF that changes. One thing for sure, we have had cold.
      Just can’t seem to line up any storm systems to take advantage of that.

      We’ve all seen it before.

      1. There was a Winter in the last 5 years more frustrating than this one, from a snowlover’s perspective. 😉

      1. Don & Gloria Scull56 days ago
        The ONLY way I have found to get rid of moles is to get an old school spring loaded mouse trap, use peanut butter as bait, put the trap next to a mole hole, place a bucket over the trap and hole, use a brick or log to keep the bucket from blowing over and wait. If you have moles you will find them daily if not hourly. GUARANTEED TO WORK!!!!!!!

            1. OS. Thank you for all of the great info. I am afraid to set a spring trap cause of the little ones. I did get a hava heart because it is ignoring the mouse spring trap with peanut butter. It spent last night in our room. I haven’t slept in a long long while. Now it keeps running in and out of under the side of the couch I sit on. Clearly it has taken a liking to me

              1. Hmmm

                Ok, how about this. We had a problem with Squirrels. They baited the have heart traps with
                Fressh PEANUTS in the SHELLS.
                THey could NOT resist.

                Perhaps that is just what they might like.

                Another thought. What is it outside that they like to eat?

                Flowers? vegetables?

                What about some carrots.

                Sorry, just shooting in the dark here tying to help.

                If it were me, I’d have hammer and be ready to pounce. I’d be past a having a heart for that pest.

                1. Daughter threw a barrel at it to try and trap. It left a three foot poop. Son in law pulled baby gate between room where it was and room he was in. Baby gate doesn’t touch ground. This could be funny if it didn’t give me creeps. Thanks again OS. I like your ideas for food

  27. i think that if the snow melts within 24hrs of the snow falling, it shouldn’t be added to the snowfall total. It doesn’t give the full story when we receive an inch or 2 and it disappears within a day.

    2. So if we have 24 inches of snow from a dozen 2-inch events in a mild pattern in which each time the snow vanishes in under 24 hours than that 24 inches of snow does not count?

      If my dear friend and former coworker, also the State Climatologist, were still alive and heard that theory, he’d have the laugh of his life. 😛

      1. The late Robert E. Lautzenheiser. I have always heard Nothing but good things and the utmost respect for that man. You were
        lucky to know him.

    4. Ok maybe a little overboard but there’s no simple stat like snowfall bc like last year we had I think 3 inches of snow after mid Feb, but it was so dam cold that 3 inches of snow lasted all the way till mid March, even causing a lot of the salt to not work easy on the roads causing a lot of problems. On the other side we receive 3 inches of snow at 32 degrees turns to rain and washes it down the drain. Maybe like a weak snow or strong snow category. It makes a huge difference in the way you look at it, and when we look at it 30yrs from now. Ik they have monthly averages but it sometimes doesn’t portray correctly

  28. Here is one of the MOST accurate statements I have EVER read!!!!

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m8 minutes ago
    When you see everyday what the weather can do and how bad modeling is you understand faith in climate models is a fools errand

    1. Climate models have already been proven to be mainly a bunch of hogwash. Not to mention they were not programmed correctly to begin with. 😉

      1. You pretty much know where I stand On Global warming, but
        that statement above is OH so true. Very very complicated.
        The weather models can’t get it right a few days ahead, how
        are the climate models get something right a century ahead. 😆 😆

        I am NOT conservative in any way, but to totally believe in these climate models is insane.

        Given all that, something is up. It’s just nearly impossible to
        separate out anything, if anything, from normal fluctuations.

        Fascinating subject to be sure.

  29. It is with a little smirk of irony that I say, while still trying to figure out how things pan out Wednesday through the end of next week, that I’m gaining confidence that the COLD/DRY overall pattern is good through at least through the weekend of January 31/February 1.

    1. re: Wednesday
      TK gave a preview earlier. Now the 18Z GFS hints at a bit of an “inverted trough/Norlun” feature for Wednesday afternoon. So far it looks weak, but
      we’ll watch it as there is some energy available. Can’t let our guard down just in case. Fun feature. 😀

      Listening to an 1980 tune by the Atlantics. I worked with a guy that knew them.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zCMk5lcwpU

    1. Yet another and at least one wants to redevelop in a pretty good position.

      Action! Action! Action!

      yes, 18Z GFS so take with grain of salt. Just nice to see.

  32. Vicki,

    I got the impression that you were moderate, not liberal or conservative.

    I’m as Liberal as they come. There “may” only be 1 or 2 others here like me.

    1. I’m sleep deprived so being silly. My mom was entrenched in the Republican Party and managed to get every R she campaigned for elected in MA which is, as you know, no small accomplishment. I grew up campaigning. You are correct. I am center to just left of center. But that is where the Republican Party of old used to be. So I guess I’m the new republican or mugwump.

      1. Btw I tend to agree with much of what I have heard you say so I don’t think of you as ultra liberal. I just think you have common sense…and I sincerely mean that

      2. I was a democrat, but changed in the late 90’s, Kennedy was the best, he’d be republican in today’s modern America 🙂

    1. It was right where it was forecast to be. Highs around 20 (Boston hit 22, my high here was 20, Worcester Hills were in upper teens) with winds dropping off to calm during the day.

      Temps don’t go down tonight, but start to rise. That was also forecast to happen.

    1. My brother is getting over it…slowly. 😛

      He lives on the other side of town… He’s the one who built the snow pile we had the contest about last year. 😀

  35. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    It can be too cold for snow.
    A. True
    B. False

    The answer is B, false. I believe it can be so cold that there is no moisture in the air and therefore it can’t snow. It’s not the cold. It’s the lack of moisture.

    Ice covers what percentage of the Earth?
    A. 2%
    B. 3%
    C. 4%
    D. 5%

    The answer is B, 3%.

  36. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How much snow fell on this date in 1893?
    A. 13.7”
    B. 15.7”
    C. 17.7”
    D. 19.7”

    Answer later today … probably before the Pats game … I’m a train wreck already and it’s about 12 hours to game time.!

  37. Total guess I am going to go with C.
    As far as the games go today both favorites will win today setting up a Seahawks Patroits Super Bowl in the desert two weeks from today.
    Seahawks 27 Packers 20 Rodgers not 100% going in. Seattle defense is strong just like it was when they won Super Bowl last season. Only two teams have won in Seattle the last two seasons Cardinals and Cowboys making it a very tough place to win
    Patroits 34 Colts 17 Good season by the Colts but not enough talent to beat the Patriots. You take Andrew Luck away there not even a playoff team. Patriots should be able to run the ball easily like they did when they met earlier in season in Indy since the Colts defense is not that good.
    Those are my thoughts on the games. I would like to hear yours.
    Congrats to all four teams getting this far!

  38. Tk what time should the rain start for us? Need to plan breaking the ice in my outside garage grate.

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