The Week Ahead

159 Comments

10:38PM

SUMMARY…
As another mild storm in a cold month departs in the early hours of Monday, it will set us up for a breezy, cool, and dry Monday holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). There will be a sun/cloud mix and a gusty westerly wind as dry air flows in behind intensifying low pressure in eastern Canada. This low will still be up there and expanding on Tuesday which will be a little colder, dry, and still breezy. What I’m still not sure of yet is how we are affected by a small low pressure area passing south of southern New England at midweek. For now, will play it as I have been previously. That is, a weak system initially with just some clouds around on Wednesday, and a redevelopment of the system to the southeast of New England, but close enough, with high pressure nosing eastward north of the region, to create a northeast wind and lots of clouds for Thursday, but still a limited risk for any snow/mix. Will try to get the details worked out and fine tune this forecast by later Monday. A break should arrive Friday as high pressure moves in with cold/dry weather. Sometime over the weekend expect low pressure to pass close to but probably just north of the region, dragging a cold front across southern New England. It would likely be cold enough for snow showers with this system, provided there is enough moisture available, sometime between late Saturday and early Sunday. Timing may change with this system given it’s a long way from arriving.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Rain ends southwest to northeast. Clouds break. Lows 35-40. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-45 but cooling back to the 30s during the day. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-38, coldest in hilly terrain northwest of Boston, mildest Cape Cod. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light snow southern areas at night. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix favoring southern and eastern coastal locations. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds followed by a chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
SUNDAY: Chance of snow showers followed by clearing. Low 25. High 30.

159 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. GOPATS!
    I was hoping for the packers, Oh well.
    What a game by the patriots.
    for the super bowl patriots vs seahawks…. One i wonder who will wear their away colors or home colors. two Hopefully that patriots defense of tonight shows up again for the superbowl. Hopefully the o-line can make running lanes and pass protect for brady… Gronk and those other receivers win some match ups against seattle. Imagine gronk vs sherman. if those happen, the patriots will have a chance. If one of those do not happen, Its going to be a long disappointing game.

    Its time for that 4 ring so patriots haters can hate us even more 😀

  3. Just got home. Game was awesome! Didn’t care about getting rained on. Wind was crazy though. Go Pats! Super Bowl here we come.

  8. How did Logan only receive .15 for rainfall …..

    Not questioning the measure ……. Even in winter, a decent line of heavy showers cant reach the coastal plain …….

  9. Good Morning.

    Re: Football

    I was WRONG, WRONG, WRONG about the Pat’s running. Blount was terrific.
    And what I can I say about Edelman?

    Awesome win for the Pats.

    And…what the hell happened in Seattle? Not sure I have ever seen a finish to a game like that.

    Super Bowl should be some kind of fun to watch.

    re: Weather
    BLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

    Can’t get excited by ANYTHING at this point. Hope ii changes, but the current prospects are dreadful.

    1. I was wrong as well. It was weird, the game felt like an early season FALL game. Rain and wind and temps in the 50’s! It should have been cold and snowy for mid-late January, ugh!

  10. I gotta admit, I overacted to the Pats struggles early on this season. Even before the season started I didn’t think they were a super bowl team with a lot of unanswered questions. Boy was I wrong! 🙂

      1. I thought almost everyone overreacted.

        Same way I feel when ppl say the winter sucked and it’s only mid January. 😀

        1. I love it Tk. Winter is not over and people will be crying uncle by the Irish holiday. Tune up the blowers and get ready.

    1. Scott Zolak ‏@scottzolak 2m2 minutes ago
      Deflated balls…….that’s funny!!!

      The only ones with deflated balls are the COLTS!!!!

    2. Some kind of “scandal” was going to be drummed up for the patriots and Super Bowl week. It’s tough being the king. 🙂

  13. Its going to be a good Super Bowl. Clearly the two best teams are playing for the championship. I don’t see a blow out like last Super Bowl was when Seattle beat Denver.

  14. NAM wants to throw us a bone on Thursday AM.
    Notice that the area of snow is separated from the off shore storm.
    Is this Ocean Effect? OR some upper energy lift going on over our area?
    OR a little of both.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015011912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=075

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015011912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015011912&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=075

    1. Have been reading /hearing about the possibility of a tad more snow Thurs AM than originally forecast, but as I continue to say not much in these parts til Feb.

  16. No wonder Luck and Brady kept overthrowing receivers ……

    BB just has to push the envelope on everything, I guess …….

    I suppose I should throw in there the obligatory ….. “if the story is true”

      1. My first sentence was an attempt at humor 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I’ll say this …… I will be furious IF there is the least bit of factual truth to this and here is why ……

        The Pats had to know they were superior to the Colts. Though its never the right thing to do, if you were going to try to unfairly gain an advantage over an opponent, this was NOT the team you needed to do it against. It will be blatant STUPIDITY if it was done.

        1. Tom. Absolutely. There was NO reason to even attempt it. I think it is sour grapes bull crap on Indy’s part.

          1. And …. I know that Simms and Jim Nantz actually addressed the time with the delay …… They said it was a kickoff ball being put into play by mistake …. But, what if it wasnt ….

            Hey look, Pats won and clearly this didnt affect the overall outcome of the game ….

            But, the envelope had already been pushed back in 2008 and I think, outside of New England, the perception is that the Pats havent earned everything fairly and squarely.

            And before anyone claims the whole, “let the hater’s hate”, please look inward and think about baseball. I’m sure we all have at least 1 baseball player outside of New England who we believe doesnt really have the stats they have on the up and up because we believe or it has been proven they sought an advantage. Well, the Pats have already been proven in the past to seek an advantage not within the rules, so I kind of think its fair that they are now under the microscope for this.

            1. Are you a transplant from another area?

              IF this ends up being true I will be so
              bitterly disappointed.

              I still think it is HogWash.

              1. Haha ….

                No, this run to the Super Bowl has been so much fun.

                You never know, it could be the last run and I am appreciating it more than all the others. So, to be reading this, this morning, a bit of a letdown.

                I want to be reading stories about how Brady can throw on Richard Sherman, etc., not this crap.

  17. Interesting from NWS out of Albany, NY
    ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ACTUAL LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
    REGION…TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE
    DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT SOME MODELS DO…IS TAKE A PIECE OF
    NORTHERN ENERGY…ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY FLOW…WHICH INTERACTS WITH
    THE LOW TO THE SOUTH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
    WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER…

    2. It looks like the GFS does NOT agree. And why would it?

      Snow for Thursday am may be a NAM fantasy. But then again, Tk was
      worried about something like that happening and mentioned it on a couple of
      updates. Maybe it is that the higher resolution models are picking up on it more?

      We’ll watch and see. 😀

  18. Claim about the balls is bull sh–. Does anybody remember the slight delay last night because a kickers ball was sent out by MISTAKE. The refs watch these balls. I tell ya the pats played one heck of a game last night and belong in this Super Bowl. Pats escaped last night relatively healthy – some shake ups. So going in healthy, playing the same style game as last night even better, coaching plan etc I think the pats have a very good shot at winning this year and as a huge pats fan that would be awesome. Go pats.

    1. In baseball back in the day (and maybe still today) teams that were good pitching/good field/no hit type of teams would put baseballs in a freezer/refrigerator for long periods before a game. The theory was that those balls wouldn’t travel as far and it would help those teams. Some of those same teams (the White Sox in particular at old Commiskey Park) would make sure the infield grass was kept higher so they could drop bunts down that would die in the grass (they had some speedy teams back in the 50s and 60s). Everyone is trying to get an edge. The Celtics resisted attempts to replace the old parquet for years as the team knew exactly where the dead spots were, etc, etc. In the NFL iirc didn’t the KC Chiefs pipe in even more crowd noise to make play calling difficult at best?

              1. It’s all at the whim of the NFL rules committee. In the NFL the rules are changed quite frequently regarding different issues compared to say Baseball (where really the only big rule changes in the past 100 years have been no spitballs and the introduction of the DH rule in the AL). So in a sense the NFL rules committee (made up of guess who) changes things when it suits them like the “no chuck” rule after the Pats were so good at it in the early 2000s.

  19. Nationals grab Scherzer

    Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 12m12 minutes ago
    Nationals complete deal with free agent pitcher Max Scherzer via

  20. I heard 7 years 180 million dollars for Scherzer. Now that leaves Shields as the big free agent pitcher left.
    Reading that discussion from NWS out of Albany it seems similar to that event back in March 2013 with a low 600 miles offshore yet it produced several inches of snow especially across eastern parts of SNE.

      1. agreed…if they can’t get Hamels fairly cheaply (ie: no trading of Betts, Bogaerts, or their top two pitching prospects) then I might be up for that. I actually think the Phillies hold on to Hamels for now and then trade him around the deadline.

        1. I suppose.

          I’m not happy with what they have done for their
          pitching. I honestly think that those guys over there
          believe with their current line up they can WIN with
          a collection of #3s and #4s. NOT so sure they will
          ADD a #1 type starter.

          At this point I’d be thrilled with Hamels as much as I campaigned against him.

          I haven’t gotten over those TURDS letting Lester go.
          IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!

  21. Home opener series for Red Sox is against ……. The Washington Nationals ….

    The regular season opens at the Phillies.

    Strange to have interleague play so early. I guess its AL East vs NL East this year.

  24. From Bernie Rayno

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 4m4 minutes ago
    noon live..will be discussing the snow threat Thursday. that will be my video today. will send link

    Interesting.

  25. Hmmm
    12Z GFS is cranking.

    Following a clipper that drops all the way down to Western Tennessee.
    Good chunk of Northern Stream energy. Will it translate to the coast and come up?
    Set up looks good so far. Continuing to watch.

  26. I am getting my car washed today since its above freezing and not raining. It always seems when I get my car washed it snows day a few days later. Will see if that happens this time.

  28. TK – I saw somewhere (I think Longshot said) that there may be more snow Thurs am than anticipated. Mac has a really important test at the Dana Milford at 10:30 am. If there is a chance, I will want to see if we can reschedule as quickly as possible so as not to delay to much. I know it is early and sure will not hold you to anything but would certainly appreciate your thoughts! Thanks

    1. Vicki,

      That is a tough one. Please WAIT until TK responds, but
      there are Signs, that yes, there will be snow Thursday morning, not a lot
      but “could” be as much as 1-3 inches. Right now the NAM is showing it
      but the GFS is NOT showing it at all.

      That is what makes it tough.

      Best of luck.

  29. Question for you all…my oldest has a science question that show air pressure on a map of the US. One spot you are told to look at is 992 (looks like over Wisconsin). Then it asks…what weather would this be?

    A. Sunny and dry
    B. Rain showers
    C. Clear skies

    1. Well that’s pretty vague, but it the absence of any other information and the limited answers, I’d go with B. Rain Showers

  30. Yeah it is vague. Right below the 992 is 996 (same state) and a state below is 1000. If I could post a pic I would.

  32. NWS out of Upton, NY was disregarding the GFS. It will be interesting if they feel the same way when the update discussions comes out later this afternoon.

  34. Vicki is the place you are going to part of Dana in Boston one of there satlite places. Just curious.

  35. Just curious…Why was the kickoff delayed until 6:50 p.m. last night? It didn’t have anything to do with this “ball deflation” nonsense did it?

    1. Thanks to you both. I turned on my TV at 6:30 and I saw the scroll that the game would be delayed until 6:50, but no explanation was given by the announcers or in print. No problem…as long as the Patriots WON! 😀

    1. For this week agree. I don’t think its a miss. I believe this would be Thursday morning for commute.

    1. It seems most of the models have trended more interesting for that time frame. All still out to sea (except for the very unreliable NAVGEM, which does show a hit), but there is definitely potential there. Probably a miss, but something to watch. Lots of troughing over the East for the next couple weeks. We’ll have to have our guard up for snow. As TK has said though, a continuation of the cold and dry theme is most likely.

    2. Although listening to Bernie he is thinking Wednesday night and even if I heard him right Boston could even get 4-5 inch amounts. Don’t go by me lets here what the master is saying. A lot of times a storm will produce and than its not looking good to hit only than to change course and hit.

        1. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of us stay dry Wednesday/Thursday. Was holding out some hope up until the 12z runs today, but it’s just not gonna happen. 1 inch tops.

  44. 12z runs today:
    ECMWF: No.
    CMC: No.
    UKMET: Not really.
    GFS: Yes.
    Count on it.
    That is all.

    🙂

    3. just tell us what you think. The possibility is there I believe for Wednesday night / Thursday am. What’s up for Sunday?

      1. I did.
        The only run that’s going to be remotely close to panning out is the GFS.
        Less snow, more cold/dry.

  45. Ch5 seems to think acumlitaion of snow would be on the south coast. Said needs to be watched also maybe something for Sunday.

    1. Of course not silly. If you think we’re going to escape winter without that this early that might not be wise. We have plenty of it left.

    2. How’d you do it and is there only one Sam . Did you fix the area where he came in. If the gum did it he’s good as dead.

      1. After standing on the couch all weekend while my son in law tried, I caught it this am by turning a box over it. Sadly, I wanted it to survive but I think I caught part of it with the box and by the time we got it to the park to let it go, it was in mole heaven. 🙁

  49. Its nice to be able to look at yet another week in January and feel fairly good that snow is not going to be a major disrupter.

      1. Hm. I thought I heard people liked him this winter . Oh well it doesn’t matter to me what it does but wish it away for Mac.

            1. Not sure why but that is the case with all of us. And I was just being facetious. 🙂

              A smiley is a : ) with no space between

        1. Ohhhhhhh I’m feeling awful. I knew I forgot the most important person of all…..but I didn’t want to make the others feel bad 🙁

    2. I like him and his presentations along with his enthusiasm, BUT it doesn’t mean
      I take what he says as Gospel. In this particular case, I think he off some. 😀

  52. It’s not all or nothing with any particular meteorologist. I like Bernie. I don’t always agree with Bernie.

    Just like Barry is my favorite TV guy in Boston and we don’t always agree. We were worlds apart on the Winter forecast this season…

    1. Yes but even abc news has at least a couple of inches in Boston. Please explain why I’m seeing and hearing this vs what you think.

      2. BTW, who was it on ABC News that was talking about couple inch snow accumulations in Boston. I’m wondering why a light snowfall in New England is national news in January…

        1. Tk what is your definition of a light snowfall . I’m just hearing 3 reports now of a couple of inches Wednesday night Thursday am looks promising. Could you explain.

          1. Where are these reports coming from?

            I gave you my outlook based on everything I have looked at. I can see 1 inch or less South Coast, flurries or very light snow elsewhere.

    1. No prob OS !

      You know, only 144 hrs out on 12z EURO, is a monster 961 mb low and another clipper, 998 mb over Chicago.

      Big picture pattern is western ridge, eastern trof.

      Its not likely, but …. if the models dont currently have the strength/orientation of the ridge and trof correct, then I wouldnt be shocked overall if in say 2 days, we only have 3 or 4 days of lead time on a big storm clobbering the northeast.

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