Is 8 A Lucky Number?

284 Comments

1:21AM

COMMENTARY…
Remember that “window of opportunity” that we talked about starting around January 24 and going into February? Well, the window may not be open yet, but it’s unlocked. Now you know that I am a no-hype forecaster. I don’t believe in throwing details on potential weather events out there too early. Too many things can change over a short period of time with our repeated attempts to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere (i.e., model runs) despite all the technology we have available. The simple fact remains, weather is predictable, but not THAT predictable. So before anybody gets the idea that we’re about to get hammered with snowstorm after snowstorm here in southern New England, let me put this filter in place. Yes, the pattern is getting a little more active, and there will indeed be increased opportunities for significant snow events in the coming weeks. After all, it is Winter, we’re in the climatological cold zone, and well, this is often the time of year that some of our more significant storms develop and travel that lofty highway called the jet stream. None of that should surprise you. Still, that doesn’t mean that every Winter is cold and snowy, and this Winter, so far, has not been all that snowy by climate average standards. It has also shown different moods regarding temperatures with a cold November (some people regard November as early Winter, so for that reason we include it here), a mild December, and a cold January. Back in November, the seasonal forecast issued here indicated that once we got to February we’d see a moderation in temperature from the cold January and also an increased risk of snow events. This may indeed be the pattern unfolding, with the change already underway. But patterns don’t always just flip like somebody turns a switch. These changes often occur in stages. We have seen systems sneak out under southeastern New England (passing to the south) with cold/dry air dominating. We’ve also seen systems that have a more direct impact, but these have been coinciding with brief warm ups and resulted in rain events for much of the region, such as the one that just went by. But since we have seen both of these miss/hit scenarios, does that mean that during the transition we can get a storm or 2, or 3, that take a track that delivers precipitation and cold air at the same time? Absolutely. Will it happen for the entire region? That question does not have a definite answer yet, but in the forecast portion that follows this, we’ll try to figure out if that is going to happen one or more times during the next 7 days. So, what is this about 8 being a lucky number? It refers to MJO, or the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is in phase 8 at this time. Phase 8 in late January is often a phase in which East Coast storms occur. So there you have it. There are other factors that come into play of course, but up to this point, MJO has not been too favorable or in the phase that would easily allow for East Coast storms to deliver widespread snow to the Northeast. If you want to read more about MJO, please click the 2 links in the comments section below.

SUMMARY…
A weak area of high pressure will force a small low pressure area coming from the Midwest to pass south of New England tonight and Thursday as it redevelops. As the high slips northeastward we will see a northeasterly flow set up in southern New England. The combination of these things will result in a light snow event for parts of the region, with the best chance of accumulating snow tonight along the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands. After this event concludes we’ll see another high pressure area move in on Friday with dry and chilly weather. The next storm threat comes over the weekend, specifically Saturday afternoon and evening, when low pressure, this time infused with Gulf of Mexico moisture, will make a run up the East Coast. Now that does not mean we’re a lock for a big storm here just yet. There are several things to take into account at this stage. They include the fact that model trends do not always mean the correct outcome is being forecast. Also, there are some somewhat reliable guidance that indicate a miss for southeastern New England. At this point, either outcome can be argued for and supported by meteorological analysis. Assuming for a moment that the storm does indeed come close enough, it’s not likely be an all-snow situation as temperatures will be marginal at least at the start, especially in coastal and southern areas. We’ll also be dealing with a very rapidly-moving system, limiting the amount of time precipitation can occur. So as you see, this threat is far from a big snowstorm certainty, and there are details to be ironed out yet. Even further out in the future is another storm threat for later Monday into Tuesday of next week. Early indications are that the air mass would be colder leading to this potential event, but there is still plenty of unknowns regarding this threat, given the fact it’s days away.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands with around 1 inch possible but potentially up to a few inches on Nantucket. Occasional light snow or flurries developing elsewhere with dustings and coatings. Lows 18-25. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except 10-20 MPH and gusty Cape Cod and Islands.
THURSDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Any snow and flurries ending early. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH and gusty Cape Cod and Islands.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain/mix coast, mix/snow possible inland, ending as snow all areas night. Greatest chance for precipitation southern and eastern areas. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 20. High 30.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 25.

284 thoughts on “Is 8 A Lucky Number?”

    1. Well gee, most places will get their biggest snow of the season (so far) from a glancing blow! Not hard to do. 😛

  3. Thank you TK for the thoughtful and thorough analysis.

    Here’s hoping the snow happens. Even if it starts as rain or mix. 😀

  4. Hmmm

    06Z GFS takes it mostly OTS, which was one worry all along. BUT I honestly
    thought that once the 0Z run had it, things looked good as the was 3 consecutive
    runs. I guess not. However, this is the 6Z run, so we shall see IF things change with
    the 12z Run.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=093

    On the other hand, the 0Z EURO still looks nice

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015012100&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=337

    As does now the CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015012100&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=65

  5. Not for Nothing, but 06Z GFS takes the next system OTS as well. Not in a good mood, that 6Z run…:cry: 😥

  6. And now we get into NAM range for weekend storm.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012106/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012106/nam_T850_neus_29.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012106/nam_z500_vort_neus_29.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012106/nam_uv250_neus_29.png

    Looking at these charts, one would believe it would track a bit inside or at least too
    close such that it would flip to RAIN.

    GEEZ, a GOLDILOCKS SCENARIO

    NAM => too close
    GFS => Outside
    Euro and CMC just right

    How the BLEEP does anyone make a forecast.

    I for one, think we get this storm and the BULK of it is SNOW, even if there is
    rain/mix at the outset. Because it is a fast mover, accumulations would be limited.
    Something in the order of 8 inches inland and 6 inches along the coast with LESS
    S&E. Just a first pass at this.

  7. And here is your 0Z FIM, which is also a bit too close, but according to their snowmap, NOT. BING! JACKPOT!!!! Which means it AIN’T HAPPENING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015012100/t3/3hap_sfc_f096.png

    2M Temperatures

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015012100/t3/temp_2m_f096.png

    850MB temperatures

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015012100/t3/temp_850_f096.png

    Total snow map in INCHES

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015012100/t3/totsn_sfc_f120.png

    he he he, I PICK THIS ONE! I PICK THIS ONE!!! I PICK THIS ONE!!!

    Which I totally know is PURE FANTASY!!! But it sure looks pretty!!!!!!!!

  9. From the NWS:

    SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT…

    ALL EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THISSYSTEM TEAMS UP WITH FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THESOUTHERN STATES. THE RESULT IS MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWSTHE STORM RAPIDLY BECOMING A BOMB AS IT CROSSES SOMEWHERE NEAR THEBENCHMARK SATURDAY EVENING…BETWEEN 975 TO 980 MB.

    1. From Upton Office

      THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER AND WITH THE CURRENT TRACK AND MAGNITUDE…WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND VERY GUSTY
      WINDS. THE TRACK IS AT TO JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFOREMENTIONED AND WITH RAW MODELS TEMPS OF 34-35 DEGREES…PRECIP SHOULD BEINTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS
      TO WET BULB VALUES RATHER QUICKLY WHICH
      WOULD GIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FREEZING OR BELOW. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY
      SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING
      BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE AT NIGHT.

  12. Thanks for the commentary, TK!
    Finally! It just might be time to dig out, and dust off the shovels 🙂

  13. Well I have written for a while that I thought we get into a pattern with the potential for a period where we get 4 events in ~15 day active period, perhaps we entering that a week early? I am still not in love with the set up right now for that pattern, but I can’t ignore general agreement of the GFS/ECMWF/GGEM at 00z 01/21.

    I would be more concerned with a S&E shift and sharp cut off the of the NW extent of accumulating snow.Far sharper than modeled. Not as concerned about mixing potential holding down accumulations. Of course I need to be careful that this is not my bias of trending towards my previous forecast. Unlike others I try to recognize my biases. As weather lover and not a snow lover I try not look for the run that most fits my agenda, but I also know I like to be right and I whether I admit or not I probably want to look for the best fit for my hypothesis.

    I kept my analysis limited this morning to current surface analysis, 00z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM surface/500mb/850mb charts.

    Good model agreement of a light to moderate event Hartford/Springfield/Worcester/Lawrence line north and west.
    Moderate to Heavy event east of that line with heaviest accumulations south and east of the 495/95 interchange southern Norfolk county/central Bristol county/northern Plymouth county.

    Give you and idea of the sharp cutoffs possible. 00z GFS snow tool puts down 18″ at Taunton, but only 4″ at Hyannis due to mixing and 3″ in Fitchburg due to the sharp accumulation cutoffs to the NW. With even less west of Worcester. ECMWF is about 50% of the max accumulation in the bullseye but similar in other areas of the region. GGEM is just slightly north with its best accumulations but bullesye amounts similar to ECMWF.

    Anyway, have fun folks. I don’t have much time today to offer better analysis today. Prepare for the hype! Media types have been bored….

    1. Great Post as always JMA and thank you.

      So you seem to be on board with some sort of SNOW event with final details to be determined? I LIKE. Thanks

      1. Yeah, I am on board. I can’t ignore general model agreement especially with the continued strengthening of the western ridge in the CONUS

    1. That’s .12 inch per hour intensity precip. At 10:1 it would equate to
      1.2 inches per hour of snow. At 8:1 would be about 1 inch per hour.

      That’s GOOD stuff.

  15. One thing that bugs me here is the you get a 975-985mb low in a southern stream dominant flow 150 SE of Nantucket with phasing so far east, I rarely see good accumulations for most of SNE, so the key here if that track proves correct is to identify the location and extent of the northern deformation zone. That is going to be your center of focus for accumulation.

  16. Bad news on the Pats front. 11 of 12 balls under inflated? I thought no big deal at first but that’s a big headline and a major stain going into the super bowl IMO if this is true.

    I don’t know what to think now.

    1. I just don’t understand the NEED. The Colts are/were inferior and the Pat’s
      KNEW this going into the game. Makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER. WHY
      take the risk?????

      I’m hoping it is some sort of Colossal mistake. We have NOT heard from the NFL office, just a leaked story from ESPN, which is NOT always accurate. SO we shall see. Sure doesn’t look good.

    2. Can’t argue with what they found, but I would like to know…
      When? Who? and who else knew?

      As O.S. stated, they are too good to have to resort to something like that so you’d want to think it came from one or 2 stupid idiots that thought they had a brilliant idea. We shall see.

      1. I have this sick feeling this morning. Why is right. But I want the whole story first. I detest this leaking of news that permeates our society, thanks in good part to social media and just plain media. Somewhere along the line we have lost our right to the presumption of innocence. Not saying the pats are innocent or guilty. Just saying judgement shouldn’t be passed on bits of leaked information.

    3. Fire Bill. Its really that simple. The underlying reason ……

      Are you happy with how the Patriots are being viewed in terms of how they operate and in regards to their accomplishments ??

      This is an easy decision, if the owner has any kind of backbone.

      1. I believe the owner actually condones this type of stuff. I also wonder if this was Bill…or could it be Josh McDaniels…or just Tom Brady..bottom line is we probably will never know even with the investigation as I think the Patriots will just clam up on this issue. Overall I think there are two many rules in the NFL and too many that change to frequently depending on which way the winds are blowing (see my previous post about this a couple blogs ago).

        2. Agreed …. so, even more reason that Bob Kraft has to do something. If not, then he has to be questioned as to his overall brand philosophy.

  17. Thanks TK and JMA for your thoughts.
    Old Salty thanks for the links. You are right about Gil Simmons he is a non hype meteorologist and he is one of the best we had in CT. He said on air the threat is higher than it was 24 hours ago with the Saturday system.

  18. This is the most “on board” I have felt this far out so far this season (regarding weekend). Not 100% sold yet though… 🙂

    1. Meaning that even though it was the 6Z run, the GFS “may” just be onto something with more of an OTS solution? Let’s see what the 12Z model suites show us. I think ALL systems will be go. We shall see. 😀

      My ONLY concern is that Northern flow as I have been stating. BUT most models have the Southern energy break through that.

  19. Mobile. I am with you TK. You have thoughts what I am saying about set up of deformation zone on a storm this far S and E being the key and not being totally sold that it sets up over SE SNE? Otherwise yes, on board.

  20. Thanks TK. Great discussion as always. Thanks OS for posting all of the links. Sorry you couldn’t sleep!

  21. With the temperatures SHOULD this happen its going to be that wet snow or as I like to call it cement snow since it feels like moving cement when you are shoveling. Good to make a snowman but tough to shovel and one where you COULD have some power issues.

  22. I’m going to be mobile a lot and fairly limited in posting ability today.

    Will catch up later…

  24. Thank you TK. Thanks also for all of the links. I have some fun reading to do. OS sorry you couldn’t sleep 🙁

  25. Sure looks interesting. The western ridge really is playing a big factor in turning the storm up the coast.

          1. I think with everything else last spring the gas never got emptied from ours. Should be interesting seeing if it starts.

          2. It’s really not that big of a deal, its mostly assembled, just need to put the handle and controls together and the wheels.

  27. I agree with Vicki above regarding “deflate-gate.” We don’t have all the details and will probably never know. Until we get an actual statement from the NFL, everything else is crap.

    1. To clarify, i dont see how there can be any credible evidence to link the team to the deflated balls.

        1. As an avid fan Charlie, how do u feel about this IF its true and it was done intentionally by anyone relating to the team?

        2. Charlie, are you enjoying the 3 days since the win in the AFC championship ? Football wise, I am NOT !!

          This stinks …… I’m starting to think backing the team is not worth it.

          I want to be hearing/reading about matchups, strategy, etc and now, forget it. They are losing me ……..

    1. Pretty potent Southern Stream system. 😀

      Bernie preparing a new video on the weekend storm.
      I like his presentations.

      Wouldn’t it be cool if we could get TK to do that. 😀

      1. NICE POSITION on the 12Z NAM.
        2M temps nice. 850mb temps nice

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=081

        VERY potent QUICK hitter.

        NAM snow map through 84 hours, so there “may” be a bit more
        added on top. Also note: It shows boundary layer issues just South and East of Boston, so it is CLOSE at least on this run.

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2015012112/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif

          1. IF it doesn’t move any closer, I think Boston is OK, however, not all that far SE of the City will have
            Mix/rain issues for sure. Closer still, Boston in the same boat.

  29. 12Z NAM even closer, introduces rain/mixing a little further inland south of I-95. Big time snows north of there. Very narrow area of best snows however.

    1. Yup, see above, plus It was well discussed by JMA farther above.

      IF it comes any closer, immediate Boston area will be mostly SHUT OUT.

      Let’s see what the others show. NAM “may” be the Western most OUTLIER.
      We don’t know just yet. Perhaps they ALL will come West more.

  31. I think all of the premature and over the top media pig piling on the Patriots should be called hategate. The FCC should investigate.

    1. Agree – we have this little thing in this country called innocent until proven guilty. The media somehow gets away with creating doubt whether it exists or not. And if the person(s) targeted are eventually found innocent, they remain always in question regardless of that innocence. It goes across the board and not just with the Pats.

  34. I think this one pans out and I heard it being advertised as a nor’easter. Horrible that the doctor died and always something to ruin the pats incredible game. I’m realy not sure what to think there but realy feel like there not a team that should resort to cheating as thats a lot of balls were talking, I don’t know.

  37. with the patriots thing, we have not heard the entire story, We have not heard from the actual nfl, its from espn which loves to hate the patriots. Nfl network thinks it might not be the patriots fault, nfl network is thinking it was faulty equipment , the pump malfunction and said the wrong psi on the gage which has happened before. they also state its very hard to tell if the balls were under inflated since it was sunday not yesterday or today and the balls loose air.

    1. agreed but in the rush to judgement (or better yet the rush to beat each other in the ratings) the Pats are guilty as sin….ughhh

  38. I hope we get some snow the coming days and weeks. Even a little would be nice.

    On the Patriots: I am completely deflated. I love the Patriots. But, I concur with Tom. I cannot watch them or the Superbowl and be into it. I feel badly for the players, who earned everything they got. Deflated balls were not the reason for the Pats destroying the Colts. However, their coach (and I do think he is behind any breaking or bending of the rules that occurred in the past 15 years) is a compulsive cheat and liar. I am sorry to have to be blunt. Belichick is brilliant. A great coach. But, he has serious issues with acting in a morally correct way. In his personal life, and in his professional life. Belichick’s closest simile in terms of behavioral pattern is Richard Nixon. Nixon did not have to break into Watergate. He would have won the 1972 election handily. Belichick did not have to spy on other teams, deflate balls, or any of the other silly things he did. His team was well-coached and did not need any help. However, like Nixon, Belichick cannot leave anything to chance. He is addicted to being in utter and complete control. It is an illness. But, the NFL is too politically correct to say that.

    Please note, this is not about outcomes. So many fans say, “well, it didn’t affect the outcome of the games.” That is NOT the point. Rules and laws are not to be violated. Full stop. Breaking rules or laws to gain an advantage, however small, is wrong. Full stop. And, what irritates me most is when fans say “all teams do it …” That’s like the excuse given to cops when someone is pulled over for speeding, or worse, being under the influence.” “Hey, everyone’s driving 75 …” Or, “A lot of people drink and drive.” First, NOT all teams do what the Patriots do (though I am sure some do). Second, just because others violate rules or laws does not give you the right to do the same.

    1. Really? This is nothing…and nothing has come out yet in terms of who and what. Someone said it best…

      “”Aaron Rodgers admitted he inflates footballs. Nobody cares. Brad Johnson admitted he paid 7500 before the superbowl to tamper with footballs. Nobody cares. Carolina vs. Minnesota this year both teams heated the balls. Nobody cares. Every QB in the league to a man says they mess with footballs to get them to feel right. We do it and it’s suddenly some huge conspiracy theory and people wanting us to forfeit.”

      1. Not the point, WeatherWiz. And yes, I do care. I care about rules. I care about laws. I care about an even playing field. No team or player should ever try and gain an unfair advantage, however small that advantage is. The fact that Rodgers and others may be doing this is irrelevant, as I said above.

    2. Joshua with all due respect (don’t ya hate it when someone begins like that?) but I do have tremendous respect for you. I also detest when someone justifies something by saying all do it. However, if the NFL and fans and espn and all of the powers that be acknowledge that changing the inflation of a football is a regular practice, how does one team get singled out?

      Also, once the facts are all in, isn’t that the best time to decide what and who should take the fall. I totally agree that there should be fitting punishment. $2500 fine to me is anything but fitting.

      1. An afterthought….perhaps the fine is minimal because the impact on the outcome is minimal. Does anyone know the actual scenario for handling the balls prior to and up until the game?

        1. Well they replaced the balls when the 3rd quarter started and we went 28-0 in both quarters so the ball didn’t make any difference.

        2. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…The NFL’s problem is that there are too many rules and that rules change and are added much too often to “level the playing field”. I’m so sick of the salary cap, the chuck rule, etc, etc. All to level the playing field…well it hasn’t worked the way they wanted it to. Dominant teams continue to dominate and all the rule changes do is make people figure out ways to beat the rules. Some get caught..some don’t. Let’s take a look at instant replay…why not expand that so you can challenge a penalty call. I know I’m probably rambling but it sucks and this is why I can’t wait for the baseball season to start.

          1. I am in total agreement. I’ve already said that from ref to ref, pass interference has a different meaning. I like adding to the number of challenges to allow PIs as well as other calls to be challenged.

            1. Here’s another funny thing. In the Pro Bowl this year they are moving the goal posts closer together (by 4 ft or so) and also moving the LOS back for PAT attempts. This is being done as something I believe they are going to do next year or the following during the regular season. Why you ask? Well once again to level the playing field. Kickers are getting too good and PATs are too easy. I hear baseball is thinking of doing something similar. Starting in spring training the league will install small hidden berms in the infield to make routine ground balls harder to field. Also home runs that travel over 430 ft will count as two runs. Finally both the Yankees and Red Sox will have to give up their easy home runs to left and right field respectively…from now on any balls hit into the Monster seats or Yankee Stadiums left field seats will only be a ground rule double. Thanks for playing.

              1. Also I think baseball has some problems with balls too…I’m not in favor of the umps tossing a ball out of the game everytime it get’s scuffed….so what if it gives the pitchers a little edge…jeeez.

        3. The Balls are checked and properly inflated by the officials. 12 game balls are distributed to each team 2 1/4 hours before Kick off.

          That procedure alone ALLOWS for Much
          Shenanigans. The league is ASKING FOR TROUBLE.

          The officials should control the balls at ALL time.
          The teams should NEVER get their hands on them.
          Mark my words, that WILL be the new procedure.

          Therefore, I believe the league will NOT do much on this. They and their silly rules and procedures are
          at fault, NOT the Patriots OR any other team.

  41. Ok, NOW I am concerned that Saturday’s even may still be a MISS.
    WHY oh WHy can’t the GFS be on board. It has a mostly OTS solution STILL with
    the 12Z run:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    Snowmap => Nuisance snow far SE A MISS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    So what Will the Euro and CMC show us? I couldn’t even begin to figure that out.

    The models are still having trouble with that Northern flow. That is precisely
    What DT was discussing and I’m sure, in addition to other issues, TK and JMA were
    concerned about before last night.(well perhaps still are)

  42. So again, look at what the focus is on ….

    I will ask again, is it worth it ?????????

    I keep getting NO !

    Now, if BB comes out tomorrow at 9:30am and tells the truth …… then maybe by Friday, we can get to football and this cloud (and I know in the great scheme of things, this should not be a top story given the true tragedy at Brigham and Women’s hospital), but maybe that cloud can lift. Denial city tomorrow, or Bill’s normal avoidance tactic will be the worst thing he or the Pats could do in this case.

    1. Agree, Tom. But BB is not a truth-teller. His treatment of the media borders on pathological. We (myself included) sometimes think it’s funny. But, in reality, it’s not. I think BB is brilliant and a great coach who knows the game better than any coach I’ve ever seen. But, he’s not trustworthy, he’s not honest, and he compulsively seeks to gain unfair advantages, however small they may be.

  43. 12Z GFS still looks like a swing and a miss for Saturday. Pretty similar from what I can see as a glancing blow…

  44. I’m in camp GFS on the weekend storm. Still thinking a miss or graze, but I could easily be wrong.

    On the Pats: They should be held accountable. I would bet a lot of teams do it, but that’s not the point. They have to face the music now. Having said that, they are going to be wicked motivated for Seattle now. I don’t think Brady lets them lose.

  45. I thought by getting my car washed that would get a storm up here. It always seems to happen. Will see what the CMC and EURO say. If this does not pan out still got another watcher early next week.

  46. I wanna see the GFS ensemble mean. My guess is its west of its op run. Don’t forget, the GFS still has the SE bias of overdoing the northern stream influence

    1. Yes, but on the 0Z run last night, it was Nailing us.
      So WHAAAAAAT HAPPENED??????????????????

      IF the EURO and CMC are still on board, then we can probably toss out
      the GFS.

      Let’s see

  49. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago
    Theory: If patriots inflated balls inside, and colts outside, then the temp drop may have lead to a difference. Think of your tires

    Let’s discuss:

    OK let’s say it’s 72 inside and the balls are inflated. Does anyone think that
    taking them out to 47-50 Degrees would drop the inflation by 2 lbs? Sounds like
    a stretch. Any thoughts? Wouldn’t that be something IF that turned out to be
    the answer. 😀

    1. I found this:

      Fourth, how big of a factor was the weather? As noted in a prior post, the ideal gas law controls the operation of the gases that were inside the football. When the temperature drops, pressure drops. That’s why, in the winter months, we inevitably have to put air in our tires. The air isn’t leaking out; when the car is kept in the cold, the pressure inside the tire reduces. (It’s also why modern cars with automatic in-tire pressure sensors show the pressure increase as the car and its tires heat up with use.) Although it was a relatively balmy 51 degrees at kickoff on Sunday, a ball inflated to 12.5 PSI in a 72-degree locker room will necessarily experience a decrease in pressure with a 21-degree temperature drop.

      ME: Question is HOW MUCH?

      1. Can this be solved by consulting a Chemistry or Physics text?

        Sounds like we should be able to solve this.

      1. Thanks, OS, for keeping us focused on weather. This is a weather blog. I am GUILTY of having voiced my views on deflated footballs, and will refrain from doing so until further notice.

  51. Just don’t delay this storm any. I’ve gotta travel back to school in Plymouth, NH on Sunday afternoon. I’m hoping if it does hit it clears in time to clean up the roads during the day.

  52. I’m not going to worry about runs from here till Saturday cause it will probably go back and forth. I feel we get two plowable events by Tuesday . Salt storm for most except the cape tonight and tomorrow. I guess Harvey did know what he was talking about last night saying Nantucket would be the jackpot probably with tonight/tomorrow’s event with 2-4 inches.

    1. This caught my eye…

      “The ball shall be made up of an inflated (12 1/2 to 13 1/2 pounds) urethane bladder enclosed in a pebble grained, leather case…weight, 14 to 15 ounces.”

      For the sake of technicality, it doesnt say 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 pounds per square inch, just simply 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 pounds

  54. Gil Simmons was saying since Keith Kountz the noon news anchor put him on to spot best guess right now is 3-6 inches could be little more could be little less. I could tell watching he didn’t want to throw out numbers this early

    1. Wow, 3-6″ is by no means significant. Compared to this winter it would be a blizzard, but by new england standards is a light snowfall.

  56. 12z ECMWF is juiced. 12-18″ Boston/128/495 and 8-14″ west of there. Get ready for the ECMWF acolytes and their hype machine to get it fired up!

    I have looked at nothing. Can’t tell you one thing about the validity of the run.

    1. That is quite juiced up. I would like some more input from yourself and Tk regarding this very probable winter storm on Saturday afternoon. As I stated above the models I believe will fluctuate like a seesaw if you will back and forth. How much mixing becomes involved will be tough to pinpoint at this time.

  57. How is it possible to have the Euro show this kind of monster and the GFS show a miss???? Unbelievable. Looks like the Euro has more support from the other models, so we’ll have to wait and see. On to the oh so reliable 18z runs!

  58. Thanks for the updates everyone. Not to skip over the weekend but is there still a storm for monday or tuesday? Thanks

    1. Yes as I posted first of 3 tonight minor tonight dusting to flurries for most with parts of the cape getting more like Nantucket . Number 2 Saturday and number 3 Monday night Tuesday morning.

  61. Finally something to track and excuse to procrastinate from school. I HAVE a feeling that this storm will get event closer and would not be suprised if it becomes a coastal hugger, and there will mixing issues in boston, now I am basing this on no analysis of models or metereology, just a gut feeling!!

  64. Jim Cantore posted the 12z Euro snow map (I guess he’s allowed to?), so if you haven’t seen it, take a good look. Map assumes a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, which seems pretty reasonable for this storm the way it looks now. If anything ratios may be a little lower, especially in southeast Mass, where this map is likely overestimating snowfall.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B75M1WOCAAATtmw.png

    1. Very similar to the CMC snow map.

      So let’s keep score:

      NAM = BIG HIT
      CMC = BIG HIT
      EURO = BIG HIT
      GFS = BIG MISS

      Can anyone spot the OUTLIER here????????????????

  65. TWC has named this winter storm Iola.
    This is going to be a heavy wet snow and if winds get cranking there COULD be some power issues. Not to mention this type of snow is tough to move SHOULD this materialize.

    1. Thank you.

      And I have been up there and with my very own eyes have VIEWED
      the ATLANTIC OCEAN from Mt. Washington. 😀

      1. I have said it before and know that compared to many mountains, Washington is not big. But to me being on its summit makes me feel as if I could reach out and touch heaven.

      1. Still on board OR wavering some?
        Have you Been talking to Eric? He is NOT on board.
        He sees too many warning signs to hop aboard just yet.

          1. As I mentioned earlier the models will probably just keep flipping back and forth. What about the warmth of the ocean and if it’s in the 40s during the day like I thought you said yesterday what’s your take on that.

  68. Just finished assembling my new snowblower. Took about 30 mins. I’ll be upset if I don’t get to use it this weekend

  69. Trying to remember is it the GFS or Euro that’s been better this year. I seem to recall its the GFS I could be wrong.

  73. The only thing I will say about the ball situation is that it’s ridiculous to be honest. I hate BB as you know and nothing surprises me but they scored 28 points in the 2nd half. Sure fine them or take a pick but it had ZERO impact on the game.

    1. Shouldn’t even be a fine it should just be dropped completely as now they Baltimore crying the same tune, what gives!!!!!! This is realy not good for Seattle cause pats will now come out on FIRE because of this distraction.

  76. TK thanks so much for the information you posted it was the best that I remember in the last year or so. It was well written and researched that not only informed me but also taught me some things I didn’t know. Thanks again for keeping us all on top of the weather in such a professional manner.

  77. Pete B seemed to think this storm is a lock, but had some concerns about rain. Mentioned at least 6″ possible away from the coast, but also mentioned 2-4″ for Boston. All very early thoughts from him though, no detailed maps or anything. I doubt (and hope) that we don’t see any numbers on a map tonight. Too early.

  78. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 1m1 minute ago
    update coming….no changes, everything in line. More impressed.

  79. 18z GFS even further east. Basically a total miss. Still have a gut feeling that ends up correct. Other models shifted too far, too fast. If correct, this would be a big win for the upgraded GFS. Otherwise, it’s a black eye.

  81. Either you are in Camp GFS or Camp Euro.

    I’m in CAMP BEATS THE F*** OUT OF ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  82. Harvey still watching but saying very high chance of heavy wet snow for Saturday . Best shot at rain would be confined to the cape where it will be warmer.

  84. Ok, so im confused about the GFS. Is the GFS we see the NEW one or still the old? Saw a tweet from Eric Fisher about the poor performance of the GFS since the upgrade went “live” but I had thought JMA told us the new GFS was delayed

      1. Guys I love you, but I have written on this at minimum 5 times. The biggest part of the upgrade which was moving the GFS to a higher resolution was delayed until the October – December time frame. However other improvements were made in regards to its temp, precip, and wind calculations and parameters. Also numerous metar sites were deleted and new ones added. These all went live with the 12z 1/12 run.

  85. Exact tweet…

    “How’s the new GFS doing? Not well. Actually worse since upgrade went live (a week ago). ECMWF still doing much better”

    1. But then he goes and says this…

      “18z GFS pretty much a complete miss. Moral stays the same – don’t go canceling any Saturday plans just yet.”

      2. I don’t know ace. I just get mixed messages from fisher. He does though seem like a very nice guy.

        1. I like him too, but he’s been on the wrong side of the forecast this winter more than I’d like to see for someone so talented.

    1. Of course it is even though its been performing poorly. It’s been a while since you have been commenting on snow.

      1. GFS has not been performing poorly. It may indeed be wrong about the weekend but Fischer is taking out of his butt on the GFS poor performance.

  90. Ok. Here are some early thoughts. I think the 12z ECMWF is over amplified and too slow in a progressive pattern. Hey, where have you heard that before? We have a neat tool that allows us to overlay the ECMWF ENS Mean over the Op Run. The 12z ENS mean is 60% less accumulating snow at Boston compared to its OP run. That is a clear warning on the ECMWF OP’s solution. If the thing ended up as the ECMWF OP shows the snow accumluations would be significantly less because of the warm air that would mix because there is not cool air to pull down with the lack of blocking. I am not in camp GFS, but I do feel a trend south and east is more likely than the 12z ECMWF solution verifying. At this point it should be played in the middle which was pretty much where I was at 00z.

        1. You can find data to support most any argument.

          1) There is zero data of the ECMWF vs the “upgraded GFS” it has been out less than 10 days….

          2) ECMWF year over year verification scores improved significantly 2014 over 2013, but that was due to an anomalously bad performance August-December 2013 after its own upgrade. Some of of those problems have never been resolved. This is not the same ECMWF that nailed Sandy and the October 2011 NE Snowstorm.

          3) The GFS verification scores were essentially flat compared to prior year but it also did not have anomalously low dip to improve upon.

          4) The GFS has been the 2nd best performer this winter with the exception of a period when NCEP was using hyper-sampling to provide support in the 12-60 hour range due to the struggling NAM in Mid-Late December. That totally threw off its mid-range forecasts. Until the last 10 days the UKMET has been the best this winter, but I will argue that the GFS has been the 2nd best model this winter. FYI the UKMET is way OTS with the weekend system.

  92. Well Pete thinks it’s a good shakedown coming Saturday from the most reliable info calling it a nor’easter.

    1. The label doesn’t make the storm any worse.

      I don’t really like the term much anyway.

      Did he say what this most reliable info was? 😉

        1. Yes he said that Vicki in his blog. Rain to mix to all snow. He indeed called it a nor’easter.

      3. Sighhhhh – he said you could see more in the graphic to the right. There is no graphic and I checked computer and ipad. My guess is something got messed up when the webmaster set it up.

  93. Since we’re changing from rain, mix to all snow this will be heavy probably with power outages per Pete.

          1. John when you make a mistake, you say oops sorry. You do not go,after the person who corrects the mistake. Here ya go and I copied and pasted

            Since we’re changing from rain/mix to all snow, this will be a heavy, wet snowfall. Because of this, there might be some power outages.

            1. Not with your response please quote accurately . I wrote probably over might but everything else was accurate. Whenever I even mention Pete you think I’m bashing him not at all. That’s all I’m saying on the matter.

              1. John You are reporting what media mets say on here. And you are not always crediting your comments which makes it seem as if you are the one making the forecast. I understand that may not be your intent but that is how it comes across to me. It is very confusing.

                And when you do cite a source, you often use incorrect of incomplete wording, which means anyone interested has to double check.

                I simply asked you to please quote correctly. That was a polite request. I’m not sure how you define the word please.

  94. This storm is clearly a Nor’easter. I agree with TK that the term doesn’t make the storm any worse, all it is is a label. But this is a Nor’easter in every definition of the word. Classic bomb cyclone. Nothing new, nothing unusual, but will be fun to watch as always.

    1. Thanks Wx….that was my question. People hear the term nor’easter and I think get nervous. There was nothing in Pete’s blog or forecast that would panic anyone. It simply stated what he is seeing. Probably the same with Eric.

  95. Tweet From Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Whiffffffff on the 18z GFS. Either it scores a big win or finds its way into the meteorological garbage bin for the rest of the winter

    1. Ignorant tweet. A) it is an 18z run B) you discard future sensible solutions because of a miss on a storm?

      1. There seems to be a lot of that these days.
        Those are nothing but talking egos, or stupidity, to be perfectly honest.

  99. Looking at the EURO’s 500 mb maps over on Instant Weather Maps ….

    at 48 hrs ….. looks like a pretty decent WNW or NW flow from south-central Canada, into and over New England.

    at 72 hrs, as the southern shortwave is nearing the mid-Atlantic, it looks like that flow (the WNW or NW flow) relaxes a bit, but not tremendously.

    And then, I was expecting to see something impressive looking in regards to the storm at 500 mb and that didn’t look that impressive to me either, at least compared to the projected deepening of the low at the surface.

    I’m somewhat hesitant to buy into the EURO’s solution.

  101. If this is a nor’easter whether it’s rain or snow how many does that make since October, seems like a lot .

    2. I think they throw that term around a lot too…I know I am wrong here but for a while it seemed like every storm was being labelled that. Not here obviously.

  102. Of course in the “we must look ahead” mode the little system coming by tonight has been neglected today, but, is going to behave as forecast over the last few days. Minor accumulation (an inch or so at most) South Coast / Cape, very minor ocean-effect flurries with no more than dustings/light coatings elsewhere especially eastern coastal areas.

    Jury is most certainly still out on Saturday. I do not agree with the amount of detail that has been given via the local media this evening. It’s still TOO EARLY for that. What is it about holding back until we know for sure so difficult, other than the pressure by the news “bosses” to get the word out now now now? I’m very tired of “rushing to be wrong”. It continues to make the public trust the met’s less and less.

  103. Wow. I sense a lot of negativity here.
    I’ll try not to add to it. Right now just waiting
    On 0 z runs, the 1st of which will be
    The nam.

    Fwiw 12z fim looks ripe.

    Very very concerned 18z nam moved
    More to the east. Bad trend in conjunction
    With gfs. Id be far more bullish if nam
    Stayed the course. Perhaps its just
    The 18z. We’ll see soon. If 0z nam moves
    Even the slightest bit East id be thinking
    MISS. SOON.

  109. Swing and a miss on the NAM. Get the forks out. Not writing it off yet by any means, but this just supports my thinking that while this will be a strong storm, it will not be close enough to do anything. Sharp cutoff on the precip.

    1. Perhaps that low just north of the border is symbolic of a nearby northern stream that has west to east flow just to our north. That might create a tight precip gradient.

      Also, I know what you mean that looking at the track, it LOOKS like a decent track, but I do wonder how hard/easy it is to tell exactly how far or close to the benchmark that low is. Perhaps its over the benchmark, then again, maybe its 100-150 miles south east of it.

  113. That NAM run sure was ……….. deflating.

    Ok, it wasnt for me …… I want decent snow in February when the sun is higher in the sky and its bright out after 5pm. 🙂 🙂

    1. nothing with that run besides for the precipitation looks like it would be a small storm, takes a benchmark track or a tad inside , everything looks good, I think the nam is cutting the northern end of the precipitation to much.

  115. Anyone have a map? Have no idea what the NAM shows for snow…what does it show 10 miles or so north of Boston?

  119. The GFS and NAM look identical …..

    They both have a low pressure area crossing southern Hudson Bay, then passing eastward through Quebec Province about the timing the southern stream low is approaching the mid-Atlantic.

    That to me is a red flag.

    Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d think you’d be hoping for high pressure to your north. And the difference in the two scenarios probably relates to a flow in southern Canada that isnt conducive to a low marching directly up the east coast.

    Maybe the EURO will still say different.

    1. nam is actually closer than the gfs, its just that the nam has a much sharper cut off of precip for some reason.

  120. I see that I am late to the party here, but I brought complimentary gift. 😀 No, no not alcohol, sorry 😛 Here it is: “This was one of your best discussions/posts, TK. You did a great job.” See? I told you I brought a complimentary gift. 😉

  121. Tom you win the prize tonight for paying attention to the right things. You made 2 points I was going to make earlier…
    1) Low pressure to the north for the Saturday system, not high pressure. Excellent pick-up. I mentioned the same thing yesterday but it was time to be re-said.
    2) 40/70 is not a lock for a good snowstorm. It is a bit of a myth that it is. There are plenty of storms with wimpy NW flanks that pass over 40/70 and don’t deliver much precipitation (rain or snow) to the Boston area. It’s more about the configuration of the overall system and location and behavior of the precipitation shield. JMA earlier brought up the case where the great snow we got was about 600 miles away from the low center… Maybe that doesn’t happen very often but it’s a great illustration and example of how not all storms follow text book definitions. We have to look at each case on its own.

  122. Well 00z euro hold ground granted it’s less precip which I think we all expected but still has 1.20 QPF and just cold enough but not by much at all.

  124. From Upton, NY For Saturday
    THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGNS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS OF
    THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD DRAW THE
    DEEPENING LOW FARTHER WEST. RIGHT NOW THOUGH…A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
    LOW PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK IS WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
    TO HONE IN ON.

    1. Further west would be good for the heavy snow. Either cast were going to get accumulating snow on Saturday just a question of how much.

  125. All models tend to agree on the heavy snow being clustered in Norwood to Boston to Marshfield to Blue Hill area. That is a small geographic area and not one to be favorable for significant snow in this set up. I would shift that max snow area west more towards SW Norfolk County, Southern Worcester County, Northern RI, and NE CT. Cut the model snowfalls in half. Create a sharper cutoff on the western edge of the precip and I think we will start to move towards some sort of sensible forecast.

    No cold air to pull down from heavy precip due to no cold high to our north, a progessive system that does not look to phase until east of our forecast area and a daytime back and forth battle between rain and snow leads to a lower than climate ratio for precip to snow. All going to conspire to under produce from what models may be saying for snow accumulation.

    2. Max snow area does not mean where the most precip falls, that will be south and east of the most favorable snow accumulation area. But those areas will be less likely to see snow and more rain and mixed rain and snow.

  127. This is really the key point from the Taunton NWS discussion this morning. The lack of a high to the north, as TK and Tom were discussing, will likely go down as the primary reason that this wasn’t a significant southern New England snowstorm. It’s a double whammy: no high means no cold, so if the storm gets too close we have major mixing issues. No high also means a weak NW quadrant of the systems, which means if it goes too far away we get little to nothing even if it’s cold enough, which remains my call. The very high speed of this storm doesn’t help either. FWIW, the 6z GFS did look a little better.

    THIS REMAIN A VERY DIFFICULT AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA…INSTEAD WE HAVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THEREFORE…THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINAL BETWEEN RAIN AND WET SNOW. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THAT WITHOUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM…BAROCLINICITY IS LESS THAN WE OFTEN SEE IN MANY WINTER STORM/S. THAT MEANS THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF MIGHT BE MORE LIMITED THEN WE TYPICALLY SEE FOR THE GIVEN TRACK…ESPECIALLY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH NOT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

    1. 06gfs has a little over an inch of qpf now for BOS, granted it is is the 06z, but that is much higher than it had yesterday. Also has just under .75 for the Monday pm event too.

  130. Thanks TK ….

    We actually verified a trace of snow overnight in my neighborhood. It must have been an ocean effect snow shower, because there wasn’t any on the ground by the time I got to school.

    But, now where I am, it is spitting a few flurries and sprinkles.

    Not that cold out.

  131. I didn’t think they’d have one this early, but I just checked the NWS winter page and they do in fact have a snow map out. My early thinking would be cut the numbers in half, significantly tighten the gradient to the northwest and shift that “jackpot” area 30 miles southeast. Although I would’ve waited until this evening to put a map out to begin with.

    http://www.weather.gov/box/stormtotalsnow

  132. I just put a quick forecast update blog entry in. No discussion there. A full one will be posted later today. In the mean time, you can all chat about things in the comments section as usual and I’ll chime in when I can. Busy day again…

    See you on the new post!

  133. Funny I fat fingered this site on my phone and I must have hit and old blog from April. I thought it was a new update today and it talked about rain right now and 60 degree temps. I was like wow talk about a blown forecast today haha.

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