Quick Update

243 Comments

7:32AM

This is only a forecast update as there are no changes to the actual forecast at this time. A full discussion will come later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: A few flakes of snow end South Coast otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny, more sun later. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Clouding up. Developing rain/mix coast, mix/snow possible inland, ending as snow all areas night. Greatest chance for precipitation southern and eastern areas. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 20. High 30.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

243 thoughts on “Quick Update”

    1. I like it but you can still get decent shows imo without it due to dynamic cooling which is not well modeled.

      1. This is not a good set up for dynamic cooling as the lack of northern blocking and in fact the exact opposite a northern low prevents cool air from being pulled down to surface and allows warmer air to stay entrenched longer

    2. Nice and thanks. But, IF one is in the ZONE, still can snow and even DUMP.

      This will be a deep storm, capable of Dynamic cooling.

      In short, someone will get some heavy snow.

      I retired last evening after a quick peek at the GFS and NAM, both of which
      were OTS MISSES!!!! I went to bed thinking NO STORM for sure, with a slight wish for EURO and CMC to come through, but thinking they’d go the way of the NAM and GFS.

      To my utter surprise, 6 hours later, they BOTH want to come close and RAIN on our parade.

      WTF!)(@&#*(!&@*(#&*(!@&#*(&!*(@#&*!&@*&!@#

      I HATE COMPUTER MODELS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Euro even wants to throw some rain on us.

      Add it all up and it sure looks like we get SNOW, it’s just a question of how
      much the accumulations are cut down by any Rain and/or mix. Even with
      RAIN/MIX, NAM and GFS wants to give us 5-8 inches. I’ll post some
      snow maps in a bit.

      My gut, considerable as it is, tells me that the immediate Boston Area gets hammered with a major snow event featuring minimal rain/mix or no rain/mix. More mixing and Rain as one moves S & E. Several more runs before event to fine tune that as a slight shift in either direction makes a HUGE difference, especially so with marginal temperatures and NO HIGH
      to the North.

      We’ll have to make do on this one.

  3. Well one thing for sure is if the gfs is correct and performing better then keep the shovels handy. Active pattern. 6z gfs has the Monday Tuesday system back.

      2. Glad to hear you’re well rested! Just in time for a busy day or two of posting and interpreting the ever changing models! Many thanks, OS!

  6. I’m leaning with you oldsalty I think boston will be in high end zone. Crucial tribe later.

  7. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 16m16 minutes ago
    have some meetings…video hopefully recorded and on line before 10:30am. continue to think it is southern new england.

    2. I was busy. What did he say/not say?

      Let me guess:

      We’re cooperating with the league.
      I have no knowledge about the balls being deflated.

      Reminds me of Shultz in the old Hogan’s Heroes
      “I KNOW NOTHING…”

      1. Just about. Typical BB. Denying knowledge, deferring questions to other players/personnel. Repeating the same things over and over.

            1. He actually made some valid points about not having anything to do with the balls, etc but cmon….he probably knows a lot more than he’s letting on. It would be funny if Brady were the actual culprit. Also from what I’ve been reading the NFL has a real problem with enforcement (before and not after) of rules like this. Too many rules maybe? I’ve also read that the max punishment (if any…they have yet to prove it was intentional or who did it) will be a fine. Meanwhile Chris Canty of the Ravens is equating this with PEDs. I’m starting to get really bored by it all.

              It’s like a Lynch Mob.

  9. Quick question. I need to make an urgent doctors appointment on Monday for Monday. I can get am or pm. Is the storm Monday night or Tuesday or earlier Monday.

    1. John,

      The best I can tell, nothing would commence until later in the afternoon
      towards evening even. I’d make a morning appointment.
      Check with others.

  10. Just looked at the 12Z NAM.

    PUTRID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Basically a RAINORAMA with a few inches of backend slop.

    MISS OTS TO RAIN. Freakin AMAZING!!!!

  11. 12Z 12KM NAM total snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015012212/namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

    32KM NAM snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066

    Pretty Pathetic. AND it is NOT a boundary layer issue. It is due to NO HIGH to the North allowing WARMTH at mid-levels (850mb) to come charging up the coast meeting no resistance. That is the problem with NOT having the proper set up.
    Everthing has to be PERFECT to get snow with this set up.

    Waiting on the other 12Z runs to see just how BAD things really are, IF they are indeed that way.

    1. Unfortunately, unless the teleconnections change drastically and soon, your point about everything having to be perfect to get snow in here will be the theme of the winter.

  12. The NAM took awhile to catch onto last weekends storm, but you are right, we will have to see what the rest of the guidance has to say.

    1. Thus the comment about looking at the other 12Z runs.
      That being said, it WAS consistent with the GFS, so we “could” be cooked.

      1. Baaahahahaha!!

        Brady was supposed to address the media tomorrow but after Bills press conference they moved it up to today at 4pm. He basically said Brady’s balls are his business and you should ask him.

        1. Like I said earlier I think he has point…but I’m sure the Lynch Mob mentality will continue. By that I don’t mean to imply that Bill is innocent in all of this it’s just damn people thank god you are all not on my Jury 🙂

  17. It appears we are going to clearly have to wait until February before we see anything close to significant accumulating snow…as TK has been saying for months now.

    TK’s Winter Outlook is spot on (pretty much) so far! 🙂

    1. HAHA. SO sick of all this. So Goodyear says:

      “This time of year serves as a reminder that a drop in tire inflation pressures corresponds with the falling thermometer readings. Goodyear experts explain that air pressure in a tire typically goes down 1-2 pounds for every 10 degrees of temperature change.”

      So if the ball was inflated indoors as they usually are…and outside was 20 degree delta….there you go.

      1. Apple and oranges between footballs and car tires. More variables with car tires including payload and total surface area, but the science is still the same. I’m sure there are NFL officials performing these experiments as part of their investigations. Here’s the big question, if temperature is really a huge variable, why isnt this an issue in other games? It was around 50 degrees at gametime and 45 at game end, pretty mild for new england standards in mid-late jan. Now take all the games in say the second half of the season in cold weather stadiums where the deltas are much more dramatic. Why has this issue never been brought up in other games? If its scientifically proven there’s a certain rate of air pressure loss due to temperature then the balls inflated at the low end of the range at inspection will most definitely deflate lower and out of spec, BUT at inspection they are still IN SPEC. The league rules never address the in-game air pressure and thus they have no case against the Pats, unless of course they have evidence otherwise.

        1. Perhaps the balls are stored in a very hot room, given to refs, approved and then deflate.

          Odd thing is, everyone agrees that the balls are between ball boy and QB once approved. If it is the ball boys……do we take our own on the road? Because according to the colts, this occurred in November in their stadium.

          And yep —- BB put everything on Brady’s shoulders. Curious to hear conf this pm

  19. Messy storm heading our way as storm. Although the storm will be a quick mover, it does have origins from the gulf and will merge with short wave energy from the northern jet. The only ingredient lacking is a big blue H to our north so boundary layer will be an issue at the onset. Dynamic cooling will not be our friend during this event as there is a lack of arctic air from above to bring down to the surface. Nevertheless, the storm track is favorable for a mix to snow in the Boston Metro area. Since the storm rapidly deepens, look for precipitation to become heavy. Any mix will turn to snow even in Boston. Less mixing to the north and west and more to the south and east. My best GUESS is a solid 4-8 inches Boston westward with 4 inches closest to Boston and the 8 inches closer to 495. 2-4 south shore and an inch or two of backend snow over the cape. Nevertheless, these accumulations are substantial when you compare it to what we have received thus far.

    1. Nice take Arod and once again welcome back.

      Messy. Yes.

      Compared to this Winter so far, this WILL be a BIG DEAL! 😀 😀

  21. I like arods guess and he usually comes in close. Although maybe more than 4 closer to boston and through the neighborhoods .

  23. Models have backed away, it has been a tough winter to get just a few inches, and we r closing in on Feb, 1st spring meeting is Feb 2nd and it’s off to the races from there, we will get everything together including all employees and begin seminars and start dates, I’m eyeing a March 9th start date

  25. This is an interesting tid bit from Jim Cantore

    Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 1m1 minute ago
    Season to date snowfall:
    Amarillo, TX = 14″
    DC+PHL+NYC+BOS = 14″

  26. Does anyone have a broad timeline for tomorrow? I’m wondering when it will appear on the southern RI coast as well as in this area. Thank you.

    1. Amazing. The 540 line is all the way through central MA and its for intended purposes a benchmark track

  32. Even this far out, I’d think its going to be pretty tough to nail down a confident area of biggest snow, if there is one.

    There are 2 or 3 huge variables at play ….

    1) Where does the heaviest precip fall ?

    2) Where iss the column likely to be cold enough ?

    3) Where do # 1 and # 2 overlap ……. That sounds like a challenge to nail down. I wish TK and others good luck identifying that overlap zone.

  38. The 12z Euro is really as good as it’s gonna get for snow. It’s not nearly the blockbuster map yesterday’s 12z run had, but it shows a good 8-12″ band (based on a 10:1 ratio) for the general I95 area. Thermal profiles were fine, marginal yes but good enough for snow. Only thing that looked suspect to me was that I think there was too much precip being shown on the NW side. Can’t emphasize the sharp cutoff enough.

    1. He said this am that he wasn’t ready to post a map but might by tonight to give a general idea. He was clear then that it was far from certain. Curious that he posted before he thought he’d be ready.

  42. ECWMF still holds with a 10-12″ snow accumulation northern Plymouth / Bristol County and 8-10″ in Boston. I would be surprised if that happens. There will be some snow, but general a 1-3″ or 3-6″ type event west to east, north to south would be a general going forecast at 48 hours out. I am in Boston today with fellow dorks and there is pretty good general agreement. Most of the reasons why, I have posted above.

  43. This is pretty late in the game for the euro to be overdoing things by that much. Its had a tendency to overdevelop these systems but usually in the 5 or 6 days range.

    1. Not really. It has been over amped on QPF inside 60 hours quite a bit. But I am not saying that it is why the snow amounts are less. It has more to do with marginal temps in the max precip area.

        1. Thanks ace, i just saw above it has also around a foot of snow monday/tuesday, i hope one of them hits us good

  45. It’s not a NEED…it’s a WANT…I don’t want any so I am hoping for a bust but I doubt it at this point. Better get ready.

  48. Bold prediction…

    At this afternoon’s press conference, Brady admits to ordering the release of air of the game balls, the NFL fines and suspends him from playing in the Super Bowl. Garoppolo plays and throws 3 TD’s, runs for 1 TD, and is the game MVP.

        1. I like it but can’t come true. Hope this thing goes away soon cause it’s just so much useless drama.

            1. Even if they did it every player on other teams have said its a common thing to do everybody likes it different . I don’t think anything comes about it unless somebody starts singing. But there may not be a song to sing. Bottom line who cares time to move on. Go pats!!!!!

    3. Sadly, I have a fear Brady is going to be the fall guy and perhaps because, as some have said here, they may have trading (or even Brady retiring) on their radar. If the “thing” is tied to him, then when he leaves, the stigma does also. I hope to heck I am wrong.

    1. That will be upgraded but smart to issue it now . With the heavy snow for boston probably will look wintry for some time ad we will get a day between storms maybe.

  50. I would imagine the rest of the area gets added when they see the 00z run. I would say a general 4-8 inches with an isolated 10 inch amount.

  52. More maps coming out from the TV guys now. Eric has a large 3-6″ zone west of Boston with 1-3″ surrounding it. Looks pretty good to me. Generally looking like a light to moderate snowfall for most. Very wet snow. Eric said ratios of 7 or 8:1. Also, with the sped up timing, most of precip will fall in the daylight hours Saturday, so that’s bad for ratios. I want to see Harvey’s map at 5, he’s my favorite TV guy, and I want to see if Pete makes any changes to JR’s map. I think JR went a little too stingy on the totals. And of course, we’ll eagerly await TK’s thoughts.

  62. i think google maps is going down the crapper. Not lettting me print screen and put it into paint like i use to do. GOOGLE IN GENERAL HAVE GONE DOWN THE CRAPPER!

  65. Brady preview:

    According to a report from NBC News, the quarterback addressed his teammates behind closed doors Thursday, telling his team that he prefers the football “a certain way.”

  66. Winter Storm Watches around my county here in CT. Upton, NY which covers are four southern counties has 5-7 inches for northern New Haven northern Middlesex and Northern New London. Taunton which covers Hartford, Tolland, and Windham has 4-7 inches.

  68. Its 33F to 37F today …….

    Not seeing an airmass change the next day or two AND then just ahead of the storm, we have a low going to our north dragging relatively mild air across southern Canada.

    This guarantees marginal cold air region wide.

    Lets look at Boston. I cannot imagine how Boston or Logan gets a significant snowfall when the initial temps are relatively mild and then, we add in a bit if the ocean’s influence. Struggling to see anything above 3 or 4 inches. I like the NWS’ map for Boston, it seems reasonable. How much precip would the storm need to produce to throw significant snow down in Boston ?

    I also like that the NWS didnt jump to significant levels of snow inland. Its very nice not to see what is the obligatory 10-15 or 12-18 contour that seems to get thrown in there so often.

    Not that it matters, but I really like the NWS snowfall map. It seems reasonable and without overreaction.

  70. Steve Buckley ‏@BuckinBoston 1m1 minute ago
    Tom Brady: “I didn’t alter the ball in any way.”

    1. Listening to it right now. I don’t really care one way or the other but one thing is for sure…The media are vultures.

  71. Jeremy Reiner retweeted
    Rich Eisen ‏@richeisen 3m3 minutes ago
    As Brady is saying, you can not tell the difference between a 13.5 PSI ball and a 10.5 PSI ball. We did that on my show. I couldn’t tell.

    1. The fool reporter said baseball players could tell the difference in weight of bats by ounces. To my knowledge only Ted Williams could do that…

  72. 18z GFS wayyyy warm. Merrimack Valley will be the jackpot for our area, but the way things are trending even that area won’t get much. I’ll say 2″ or less for Boston.

  74. Good thing footballs aren’t blue….

    It’s the only word Brady didn’t use that the late night shows won’t have.

  75. Dan Shaughnessy ‏@Dan_Shaughnessy 2m2 minutes ago
    wow. jerome bettis calls out brady. this is ugly

  77. Pats stuck the middle fingers up today to all the haters. They HAVE to win this SB. And by much more than three points.

    1. Brady was outstanding …..totally relaxed and IMHO clearly telling the truth. Some of the reporters were unmitigated fools

    1. OHMgosh……I just slit out my drink….and I hate when I waste good wine but that comment was worth every wasted drop

  79. GFS is a tad WIDE for the Monday/Tuesday event.
    Goes from 14-16 inches of snow down to 6-7 inches.

    Models SUCK! They are simply guidance. We lose site of that.

    Reminds me of an old “Little Rascals” episode and Spanky was a caddy and with
    the player on the green. The player wants to know which way the putt breaks and
    Spanky says: “It goes little this way….NO it goes a little that way….no wait a minute it goes this way….” Hilarious scene!

    data:image/jpeg;base64,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

  80. HI all!

    I have been very busy today, reading when I can, tossing in a few comments. I know the hot topic is football and you may all chat about it here if you like. I still think it’s weather-related anyway, at least to SOME degree….get it? 😉

    Seriously, a very quick summary on my thoughts. I haven’t looked at much more than just quick browsing of guidance operational and ensembles, and this is what I can foresee.

    Saturday: It’s a Gulf system, lots of moisture, but the heaviest is going to be where it is the warmest, and the areas that stay snow get the least precipitation. There will be an in between zone that probably goes from snow/mix to rain then back to snow. That is the tricky zone as always because they can get 2 rounds of accumulation, front end and back. I’m trying to figure out how that will work out, and of course the final amount on the ground in many of these areas will end up lower than the actual accumulation total from the storm because of the rain and mix involved. I’m going to issue #’s tonight, but at this point I don’t see anybody over 6 inches of snow out of this, based on the track I think it’s going to take, and the speed of the system. Now don’t go thinking I’m about to call for 6 inches everywhere. 6 is my first idea of a max amount in the jackpot zone, wherever that is, with the vast vast majority of the area seeing lower than 6, probably much lower than 6.

    Early next week: Not a Gulf of Mexico system. Less moisture, but still may have enough upper support to produce a snowfall that we at least need to use some removal tools for. I haven’t decided if I like the timing. The GFS is a little fast, but it’s hard to argue with that model lately.

    Later next week: Arctic cold front. Brr.

    Beyond: I see some interesting possibilities after January 31. That’s all I’ll say for now.

      1. 1 or 2 ’round there. Depends on how much is left on the back side when the cold air comes back. The storm is going to be hauling.

  82. 18Z CMC YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKK

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRMMMMMMMMMMM!!!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=TT850&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=TT850&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=PNMPR&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog

    WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT HAPPENED????

      1. Tk what’s your number for Boston won’t hold you to it and what’s the chances of that holding. And for the accumulation time slot for Boston maybe dinner time once sun goes down.

        1. About an inch for Logan and 1-2 inches in the back neighborhoods. Most of it will fall from dusk to mid evening Saturday there.

          1. So a rainy day transitioning to a snowy night. What would be the projected temp for day than the lowest temp if you know. Busy today could not look. Thanks for answering my question though I chanced it and went for 2:30 as that way I get 90% of the work day in on monday

      1. My friend, I think the models can jog to their hearts content 🙂 ……. unfortunately that isn’t going to chill a marginal airmass any further.

        1. Ditto that. If there’s been one constant with this winter, it’s been the marginal air despite favorable track.

          1. every winter has at least one or two things you remember that held nearly throughout. And for me, it’s been that even with decent tracks, the cold air just hasn’t been there.

      1. Well sort of…
        I worked for Air Force Cambridge Research labs
        Weather radar site located at the ARMY LABS annex
        in Sudbury/Maynard/Stowe.

      1. I noticed, (yes it takes me a while to notice things 🙂 ) that the snow map assumes a 10 : 1 ratio.

        I think the melted amts on those projections seem reasonable ……. a .8 to 1 inch bullseye, surrounded by a larger .6 to .8 in contour, etc.

        I just think the ratio might avg being 12 or 15 : 1 for the whole event. So, take 2, maybe 3 inches off of those amts inland …….and within 5 miles of the coast, really trim the amts.

  90. I’m reminded tonight why I despise the 3-map system the NWS uses. If you live in northern Middlesex County, you can look at all 3 maps and conclude that your potential snowfall is 0 to 18 inches. That is completely useless.

    2. This could be scary during this during the summer ……

      No convection (weak scenario)

      strong thunderstorms (likely scenario)

      F2 or F3 tornadoes (damaging scenario)

  91. Watching the GFS run as it comes in ……

    Watching the surface pressure ….

    Its just really strange watching the coastal low on the east coast and then going north into southern Canada, there’s another fairly decent low east of Hudson Bay.

    My brain keeps getting confused. It looks funny looking at the isobars and the way they are oriented.

  93. My first guess is ….

    1″ at Logan

    3″ in Waltham

    5″ at 1,000 ft Worcester.

    2-4 inches in north-central Mass, extending eastward to around 128.

    Maybe a little sneaks into southern NH, but because the precip intensity would be less, D to 1.

  95. What days in the next week are looking potentially bad for travel? I have a colleague traveling Saturday evening from Logan to Florida, I’m flying early Tuesday Logan to Miami, and another friend is flying Logan to JFK/NY on Thursday. Oh for one more week of that cold dry pattern!

    1. Monday and Friday could potentially see “some” snow. Right now, doesn’t
      look like much, perhaps an inch or 2 at most. ALL subject to change around here. 😀

  97. Good morning.

    Welcome to SNOWGATE
    SNOW or NO? The Answer is Blowing in the Wind.

    Models SUCK!!

    GFS is coming in HOT. The rest MUCH colder.

    Snow amounts vary all over the place from virtually nothing from the GFS to
    about 8 inches or so with the CMC. Euro looks to be “about” 6+ inches in the City
    even. So, how does one make a forecast.

    I’m looking at the latest NWS map and it actually looks pretty reasonable given the data I have seen.

    Here is that:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8B60zdCYAEhuE8.jpg

    CMC looks to be about 8-10 inches in the Boston Area

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012300/gem_asnow_neus_10.png

    Here’s the Euro Wundermap snow chart at 48 hours

    http://i.imgur.com/xftNrer.png

    Not sure if this is the total to the point or last 6 hours only? Not sure, but it is something.

  98. I don’t know the 2-4 range that boston is in is so close to the heavier line. I’m just going to throw out there 4.5 for Logan and 7 inches throughout the neighborhoods back bay, west Roxbury , Roxbury , JP etc. just a hunch it ends up colder. This storm is in earlier now as well. Just a hunch.

      1. I have not seen that map oldsalty. I was going by ch 5 they have Boston 2-4. But I’m scepticall of that.

  102. Here’s my take for better or worse, laugh If you will.

    I elect to TOSS the GFS and go with a blend of the Euro, CMC, NAM and yes, the FIM.
    Put those in a blender and mix em up good and this is what I get:

    8 inches N&W of Boston
    6 inches Boston

    Which coincidentally was my call the other day. 😀

    Let’s see how OUT TO LUNCH I AM! 😆

    If I’m Wrong will you still respect me in the morning????

  103. I don’t know . Tk last night saying most under six and his thinking is right in line with Epstein. Like I said I just have a feeling it’s not going to shake out that way. Leaning with colder temps so less rain more snow.

  104. I don’t know . Tk last night saying most under six and his thinking is right in line with Epstein. Like I said I just have a feeling it’s not going to shake out that way. Leaning with colder temps so less rain more snow.

  107. A couple of thoughts …..

    If I read the NWS discussion correctly, lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. LOWS !!!

    1) So, Lets say Logan is 32F tomorrow at 6am, Dewpoint is about 25F ….. Play around with the temps in your mind and get yourself through the rest of the day, tinkering with what is likely to happen with those boundary layer temps during the event.

    2) Going back to the NWS discussion, I believe I read in the wording that the boundary layer thermal profiles are really close and all it takes is a difference of 1F. Then, I went over the ch7 and saw that they had put a time table for tomorrow. Starts at 7am, ends I think at 7pm and so the storm takes play during the day …….. when there’s daylight. Uh oh, there’s your potential .5 to 1F.

    Seeing red flags.

    I suppose the storm bombing out may be on the snow side, if the bombing happens soon enough before all of the precip pulls away.

Comments are closed.