Window Open!

737 Comments

8:53AM

COMMENTARY…
The January 24 rule has worked for most of the region! If you are not sure what I mean, ask in the comment section. I never thought it would work on the actual date but that was just coincidence. That said, clearly underestimated the snow for parts of the region in this one. Fixing that now on a brief update after a very busy week had me physically exhausted and a mystery foot injury slowed me down. Still have to shovel today here in Woburn where we are closing in on 2 inches of snow as of 8:30AM. Anyone wanna help? JUST KIDDING!

SUMMARY…
This is a short version. Slight change to the snow amounts to sink them southward by about 10 miles and adding 1 inch. Perfectly timed moderate to heavy precipitation in a marginally cold atmosphere that this time was just cold enough instead of just too warm lead to a good shot of snow for much of RI and MA including the Boston area. We still will have a mix/change factor that gets up through Boston later morning into afternoon as precipitation gets a little lighter. This area of mix/change should not get too far northwest of the city before it starts to move back to the south and east, eventually crossing Cape Cod by early evening. This will result in some additional snow accumulation, but not too much, as the storm will be moving very rapidly away by that time. After this, a chilly and dry Sunday as was forecast, but then we have to watch very closely for explosive storm development offshore later Monday and Tuesday. Computer guidance has been playing around with how this system will develop, and even though at this stage it is still too early to know details, it has enough potential with it to bring significant snow to parts of the region, and this time in an air mass that will be much colder. Whether direct hit, near-miss, or somewhere in between, as that system departs by the middle of next week it will drag down some very cold air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY/THIS EVENING: Overcast. Snow to mix/rain northwestward across southern RI and southeastern MA up into the Boston area, then going back to snow from northwest to southeast across these areas later in the day, remaining snow to the north and west, then all precipitation ending from west to east evening. Accumulation 4-7 inches Boston north and west, 2-4 inches to the southeast which includes the immediate coast from Boston south as well as the tip of Cape Ann, except 1-2 inches most of Cape Cod and immediate South Coast, and under 1 inch outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 32-40, mildest Cape Cod midday. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH with higher gusts from parts of the South Shore to Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind N shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 35.

737 thoughts on “Window Open!”

  2. FYI: The Weather Underground Radar is not depicting the mix/change zone accurately. Do not depend on it right now. Usually it is good. It is not good right now. Clearly some issue with it.

  4. We’re already closing in on 3″ in Brookline. It’s beautiful out there — almost no wind and sticking to every tree branch!

    1. Enjoy it!
      We will see a mix/change there for a while, more wind later but not right away. 🙂

  5. Thanks tk 🙂 great forecast here 1-2 inches was right on the money, I measured 1.9 inches, most of this is washing away as it’s now moderatley raining and temp has inched up to 34.5 degrees, thanks again 🙂

    1. You will probably get up to another inch later today/early evening as everything goes back the other way near the end of the storm.

    2. My no shoveling since mid Feb 2014 continues, I’ve never made it a whole year without removing snow, 3 weeks to go, unless we get a few inches in the next 3 weeks 🙂

  7. Still a mix here. Been that way for MORE than 1/2 hour.
    Accumulation has stopped due to compaction, but not due to melting.
    No RAIN. Snow/Sleet mix.

  8. Now it’s SNOWING pretty hard again. IF there is any sleet in there it is minimal now.
    Big Snow flakes.

  9. seems like the heavy snow is staying south of my area.. COME ON! closing on at about 2.7 inches, hopefully we get much more

  11. At the 9am ob …. If I am reading it correctly …..

    Logan has reported a storm total of .25 melted.

    Their temp has never been below 32F.

    So, in theory ….. They should be at 2.5 inches for a snow total. Out at the airport, based on their ob.

    2. Sounds about right. I measure 3.5 inches here. Accumulation stopped for a bit
      with the Sleet mix, but it should be picking up again now as we are back
      to Straight SNOW. 😀

  13. SNOWING HARD! NO SLEET now, Just plain ole SNOW and at a good clip with BIG flakes.

    One of 2 things:

    1. The atmosphere is fluid, so it is not a linear sharp line so we have a wavy mix zone.
    2. I like this one: The mix zone reached it’s MAXIMUM NW extent and is stable over
    or “just” South of the area.

    1. When that yellow bright banding passed over Marshfield, it was accompanied by the return of wet snow flakes. Previous to that band, it had been sleet or rain for a good 15 minutes and after it passed, it immediately went back to rain. So, perhaps it could also be pre ip intensity within that band that is making the difference.

      1. Don’t think so. SOLID SNOW here for awhile.

        The mix lasted almost 45 minutes, but NEVER Rained.
        Always a mix of snow and sleet of varying degree, then
        went back to straight snow.

  14. I just wanna say DT couldn’t have been more wrong, he had my area getting up to 8 inches ehhhhh wrong

  18. Signs of a bit of a breeze starting up …..

    Usually, a switch to rain in Marshfield is accompanied by a sharp temp rise and a quick melt of snow ….

    But, I dont think this time that will happen.

    The snow that fell is compacting a bit, but doesnt have that appearance that its going to wash away.

  20. Keep in mind the general timing of the mix line reaching the city of Boston was later this morning. Any mixing you have seen already is “bonus mixing” for lack of a better term. They will go to rain in the city for a while later. The complete changeover line is about on a line from the MA/RI border to Franklin to just south of Quincy, and it has not stopped its northward progress except briefly where some heavy echoes just inland from the South Shore cooled the atmosphere briefly.

  21. TK do you think our area in between 128 to 495 still gets in the higher range or since it seems a bit colder of a storm, the higher range moves south of my area in billerica

  23. Mix line made it to I -84 corridor but never made where I am.
    Looks like a dry slot to the south and west looks to move in which will be good to start moving this cement snow.

  25. TK …..

    Nowcasting the radar …. Is most of the next big precip batch hugging the mid-Atlantic a hit or miss for us ?

    Where should we be looking on the radar for precip generation ?

    Are the patches of precip in western NC, West Virginia part of the upper level support that help the coastal low bomb out ?

    Are those echoes destined for us ?

    Thanks, as always …….

    1. I think the heaviest of that stays Cape Cod east but the zone should also fill in a little during the day. I think the South Shore to Cape Cod gets in on a 1 or 2 hour round of moderate snow this evening before it pulls offshore.

  26. Heading to the kids basketball games then going to Pat place for the day, good day, enjoy the day 🙂

    1. Be careful this evening. You’ll go back to snow there, get some accumulation, and things will ice up somewhat. Not a tremendous temp drop but enough to make it slick and whiten things up again.

  27. Last thing the back edge is coming into eastern ct now, looks like not much precip most of the day, good day 🙂

    1. Some of that will fill in, but there will be lulls this afternoon. It looks like if the mix line gets into my area NW of the city it will be during the lulls which will help out in not making my snow turn waterlogged when I go out to move it. 🙂

      Plan is to do that right after lunch for a couple hours, then do another final scape this evening as it all winds down from west to east. Of course I share a driveway with my neighbors, you know the ones that have a snowblower and told us never to worry about doing the driveway, but they take their snowblower and drive to a relative’s house before they do the driveway, so instead the only thing they help with is packing the snow down.

      I’d insert a colorful phrase in here like O.S. does when it changes to rain in his neighborhood, but you can probably imagine what I’d be saying. 😀

  28. i asked if they were looking at the dry slot coming through here is what they had to say
    “We’re focusing on trends with the HRRR. Yesterday, we noted drying occurring @ -10C and aloft creeping in across SE New England just S of the NE-SW banding expected to maintain over NE MA to N-Central CT. Subsequent lull is expected this afternoon prior to the banding lifting out E as the storm amplifies into the Gulf of Maine. Follow along with us: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-)

  29. Dry slot working into my area. Going to go in a bit and shovel the 6 inches that fell.
    Please be careful to anyone shoveling today since this is a heavy wet snow.

  30. Tk is it silly to clean up now? It’s still coming down lightly but not sure what we might get later?

    1. I actually think doing a cleanup now would help. It’s a bit heavier than “average” snow and yes there will be more later, perhaps as much as 1-2 inches this evening, so doing an evening cleanup is going to be necessary. But I think it’ll be easier by itself if you move what is out there now.

  31. 12Z NAM showing explosive development for the tuesday system, run not done yet but it looks like it shows some snow for SE sections but im not sure about significant

  32. Back to snow in Wrentham, after an hour or so of mostly rain.

    So, let’s see, a moderate snow event today, potential for a major event Tuesday, nothing but positive signs for snow beyond then… so much for the no snow winter 🙂

    1. Same here as well! All snow 🙂 12Z NAM showing some big snow amounts for tuesday. Through 72 hrs about 10″ and more to go

  35. If the NAM came to fruition, the entire state of MA would be shut down for days! 4 feet in north central MA with 2-3 foot amounts everywhere else

  42. I’d feel a lot better if the GFS were on board. I suspect the 12Z run will show significant snow as well. Maybe not of historic proportions, but significant.

  43. Had a doctor’s appt in Avon this morning that was canceled due to the snow. I have another one on Tuesday. So just let me know which days you way it to snow and I will book more appointments.

    Big flakes coming down now as I sit in the parking lot of The Kingston Collection Mall.

    1. I’ve never heard of the doctor canceling the appt, that’s a 1st, I’m suprised they didn’t cancel the kids basketball games at the Y, but we r here and practicing, but then again we got only 2 inches thankfully 🙂 enjoy your day sue 🙂

  44. Thanks AceMaster and TJ
    WOW!! with that NAM run. I have not seen snowfall on a model run like that since the blizzard. Now its the NAM so cut it down but even if you cut it down that by half your still looking at over a foot of snow for many areas.

  45. Moderate wet snow now. Huge snow flakes, accumulating again.

    I dont mind being the bad guy.

    Ok, there’s 10 percent of me that would LOVE to see the NAM happen.

    The other 90% is rooting against it. Major disruption, lost school days, lots of people’s plans changing, no thanks !!!

  46. Careful about getting too excited over NAM snow totals this far out, and ECMWF snow totals period.

    That said, we have potential for a powder blizzard if things come together just right. I’d peg it at a low probability right now to realize maximum potential, but do not turn your back on that system. Many times in the past a system like today’s has paved the way for a monster at least nearby a few days later. Kind of like “the primer before the main coat”. 😛

  47. Meteorology aside for a moment, and speaking in a totally selfish snowloving manner…

    I REALLY hope the mix line stops before it gets to Woburn and that I can go out and shovel during the lull this afternoon and maybe even make a snowman! I haven’t made a snowman in 2 years. My son and I would put together a real good one. 😀

    I don’t mind having to scrape one more time this evening when it ends. 🙂

  48. Thanks TK! At least we have some good storms to watch. I’m looking forward to further runs of the models and maybe having a nice day off next week for some snow NOT 4ft..

  49. I’m Back. Took a little Nap as I got up WAY too early. Couldn’t help it.

    OK. I see you guys reporting going back to snow!!!

    That tells me the mix/changeover line went as FAR as it’s going to Go.
    IF Tom is back to snow, rain AIN’T coming back.

    NAM and EURO totals may not materialize, but to DIMISS both of those runs
    as LOW probability is not wize, imho.

    WINTER GORILLA is on the way!!!

    1. Pete Bouchard ‏@pbouchardon7 16m16 minutes ago
      Typically, I don’t like talking about dinner before I finish lunch, but the Tuesday storm demands a heads up.

    2. I think what you probably end up seeing is a light mix when the intensity lets up later, but no heavy rain, which is good from any standpoint.

      As far as the snow amounts, it’s not really dismissing anything. As a met. you look at what you know, the fact that the Euro has sucked with snow more than a day or 2 in advance since its upgrade, and the very well known fact that the NAM sucks in every aspect beyond 48 and especially 60 hours.

      HOWEVER, just from seeing all of the guidance with the same generalized idea of a trough and lots of energy, that is what you don’t turn your back on – the potential. It’s not about the details of those runs at this stage of the game, just knowing what is possible in a setup like that one coming up. 🙂

  50. That nam run will not be the same next time, and if it is it will change at tonight’s 00z nam runs guaranteed, they just put that in there to get the blog going lol 🙂

  52. STILL SNOWING HERE.

    NEVER RAINED. Had a 1/2 to 3/4 hour stretch where it mixed with sleet.
    That was it.

  55. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 14s14 seconds ago
    Taunton MA: RT @PGebelein: @MattNoyesNECN dynamic cooling doing its job here in tan. Though its mainly snow. Sleet is mixing in

        2. Instant weather maps does NOT assume 10:1

          It has a special algorithm (Kuchera Method) that takes into account temperatures at all levels, including snow growth zone.

          It’s NOT perfect, but better than assuming 10:1.

          How is snowfall calculated?
          Unlike most variables we offer maps for, snowfall is not explicitly included in the model output provided by the NCEP server. To get around this, InstantWeatherMaps.com uses the Evan Kuchera method to calculate instantaneous snowfall ratios. A specially weighted average is then performed, and the result is multiplied by the precipitation over the requested time period to get the snowfall.

          More

          The second method is more complex, and should produce better results in most situations, since it takes temperature (surface and aloft) into account, and allows for the ratio to vary in space and time. We refer to this method as the “AF Method” on our website. AF stands for Air Force, since this method is based on a method used by them (also known as the Kuchera method). In a nutshell, here is how snowfall is computed via this method… Where the model forecasts snow: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT). 2) If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT). 3) If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT). The hourly snowfall is RAT multiplied by the hourly liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall is the sum of all the hourly snow values up the given forecast hour.

  59. GFS rolling. ALSO shows TREMENDOUS energy with next system
    Remains to be seen what it does with it, however. 😀

    So far clipper drops down to Kentucky/VA area.

  60. TK, looks as if you’re new snow accumulation forecast appears just like mine ;D

    We now turn our attention to Tuesday’s storm. Previously I said not to discount the idea of a blockbuster storm should the jet buckle enough. Although it appears more likely of a significant impact on Southern New England, a blizzard is also not guaranteed. Nevertheless, the potential of one is.

    1. Very similar. Just had to add a little and change the orientation slightly.

      This system and the one back just before Thanksgiving are 2 very good examples of a marginal atmosphere. Both almost identical setups in the atmosphere over us. The one with the better “text book” set up does not realize its maximum dynamic cooling potential, while the one without the better setup does. Go figure. 🙂 All in all though not a major difference from the original idea posted here. The idea was to keep going low until something happened.

      But we’re entering a new pattern now, and that pattern is certainly NO surprise, based on what we have been discussing here for many many weeks. 🙂

      2. Did you see what I posted on the previous blog earlier
        this morning. I was NOT KIDDING AROUND.

        Here is is:

        Old Salty says:
        January 24, 2015 at 6:50 AM
        Hadi, I hope WxWatcher responds.

        BUT I’m getting a feeling about Tuesday.
        This is a blog and I am NOT making a forecast here at this time, however, I “could” see this one
        being an absolute Monster, perhaps of Historic proportions. I know that’s saying a lot, but for now we shall just monitor to see what evolves.

        This one is a REAL watcher. A REAL watcher.

    1. Exactly, just like for today’s event three days prior to it. Same position and look where its going.

      This just increased my confidence in a hit for Tuesday. 🙂

  64. No rain yet in this part of Roxbury. Forcast by some mets on more snow a good call. Realy good dumping here this morning and still coming down of course light though. Back end dump tonight and Boston gets good numbers. I think it hangs longer till around 10pm.

  65. No, its getting us good.

    An actual SLOW moving storm, with a high to its north, northeast.

    Here we go folks !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  67. It’s +1 Celsius here in Quincy, two blocks in from Wollaston Beach, and it’s coming down hard. No wind though. Going out to shovel soon; it looks like about 3 inches or so, but that’s an estimate of what I can see on the garage roof out the window…

    2. Lows have been so progressive all winter ……. That thing doesnt move very far over a 24 to 36 hr period.

      While it doesnt appear to stall, it certainly looks like a much slower mover than any other storm this winter. A cold high to its north.

      Gee, just hope nothing changes in 72 hrs.

  70. TODAY’S STORM: We have seen the heaviest. From here on in it becomes lighter, mixed at times from immediate Boston area south for a few hours, snow to the NW, limited accumulation but still some ongoing, then we get one fairly organized band of moderate snow that swings back eastward second half of afternoon and early evening and should be good for a general 1 to 2 inches additional snow atop what already fell. All gone by mid to late evening and the sky is probably clearing out before midnight from west to east.

    EARLY WEEK POTENTIAL: Yes much can change between now and then, but it’s the best set-up I have seen depicted on most guidance since the February blizzard a couple years back.

    1. Multi flip-flops this morning.

      I was pleasantly surprised by the last hour of decent snow.

      And now, it just changed back to light rain.

  73. 12z NAM gives all of SNE a big amounts of snow
    12z GFS gives big amounts of snow CT River Valley East. Hoping the bigger totals shift back to west like 12z NAM is showing.
    I remember back with the blizzard of 2005 I only got a foot but parts of eastern New England got close to 30 inches. I wonder if the same thing will happen this time.

  74. My early instinct on early next week is the further east you are, the better, if you want the snow, and even a bit north.

    Maine anyone? 😛

    1. There there, enough of that talk.

      But in truth, with this one, the only fly in the ointment would be
      a pass just wide right. OR it doesn’t really get going until just a little too
      late.

      BUT, LOOOOOOOOKING GOOOOOOOD at the moment.

  77. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago
    GFS 12z now shows explosive Nor’easter spinning away Mon – Tues just off New Eng coast. Huge snow dump

  78. Its over where I am after 6 inches. Good snow for a snowball fight or make a snowman.
    My attention goes to early next week now and if we could get what the NAM is showing and having big snow totals for all of SNE. I don’t put much stock into it but if the EURO shows it on 12z run that my interest will increase.

    1. Let’s see now.

      On Board for Big Snow Storm:

      NAM = Check
      GFS = Check
      Euro = Check
      JMA = Check

      CMC was close. Will be there this run for sure.

      What more do you want.

  80. I never got this excited since Nemo, i really hope the models stay the same and nothing changes. OS, i gotta hand it to u man, i saw your post last night when u were the first to mention that u have feeling this could be a huge blizzard and i was just thinking ” yea right i wish” , I dont wana jinx it so ill shush now

      1. Yes I know that alisonard, u did not give up on it and u told us there 5r is still a potential and not give up on it! I really hope this is the one!

        1. So serious question…do any of you guys lusting for a blizzard have to clean it up or no? Curious the ratio of snow lovers vs having to clean it up yourself.

          1. I live in a condo complex but I go to my mom’s and help her and my stepfather shovel.
            I don’t mind shoveling the powdry snow. Its this heavy wet snow that I don’t enjoy shoveling.

          3. You know my story. My no-show driveway-sharing neighbors that just drive over it and take their snowblower elsewhere to use it.

            Whether one roots for a storm or not makes no difference. The weather does what it does. I do clean up, and it’s just part of the process. We live in a place where it snows. If one does not have snow-removal done by others, one just remove it if they wish to get out. 🙂 I like it here. I can deal with moving snow from storms when they happen. 🙂 Summer comes eventually. 🙂

      2. The scary thing is the ratio. Could be 20:1 or even 25:1
        With the support and lift this potentially has with that very very cold air and fetch over the water and those ratios, holy crap batman. NOT trying to alarm, but just be prepared. This “could” be an absolute MONSTER. GFS qpf of 1.5 could end up 3 feet of snow with gargantuan drifts. CRAP, NAM has 2.5 inches of qpf.
        Imagine that one!!!

        NAM winds forecast to be 50-60mph gusts.

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012412&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=075

        IF and I do seriously say IF, it all comes together it could be a WIPE OUT.

        1. Yup.

          I mean, I’m not trying to get carried away, but it kind of makes one think of the storm 2 years ago.

          Its got the track, the snow potential, the wind potential.

          And when you think of all the snow, the power problems down this way that happened with that storm, it is something to start being a bit concerned about.

          1. Honestly, it “could” possibly be worse. OF course if it doesn’t come together just right, it clearly won’t be as bad if it is at all.

            A REALLY SERIOUS WATCHER.

  81. Anyone know how driving is 95 RI and 495 through Wrentham and franklins etc.

    And should we expect bad driving to return?

  86. From looking out my window, it is now a changeover here in Dorchester. It is either rain, sleet or mix of the two. The snow on the ground is quite heavy even before the change. Earlier I got to use my shovel “for real” for the first time since last year.

  87. JJ to answer your question.

    I measured 3.5 inches at 8:30 AM. It had compacted some at that time.
    I don’t know what we added, if anything, as it passed 34 Degrees and it could have
    just kept on compacting. Original dump was fairly fluffy.

    I’m going out after lunch to clean up. I’ll assess it then. 😀

  88. Old Salty its like I said earlier this is like when we have a thunderstorm day and have ingredients in place the question is does it come together. Clearly for early next week ingredients but does it all come together.

    1. That’s the question. There is time for it NOT to come together.

      But it’s not that far in the future. SO we shall see.

      I for one, am getting worried. I’ll be stocking up tomorrow AM
      when I go out. I’ll be getting extra. YES, a bread and milk run if you will.
      ABSOLUTELY! Better to be prepared!!!!

  90. My early call on Tuesdays storm 10′, possibly 15′ in localized banding.!!!!!! ( this storm has potential to bring the world to its end !!!!!!!!!)

  92. Looks like a general 3-6 which is what we talked about 48 – 60 hours ago. Less rain than I thought. Also thought Logan would be about 2″ and probably will come in around 4″ Glad I kept the heaviest amounts south and west and did not shift north and east .

    Reminder ECMWF 48 hours ago had 17.7″ of snow for Logan for today’s event….

    I am on board for something Tuesday. Further east you are the bigger the potential impact.

    Someone keep an eye on OS. Worried about an excitement generated cardiac event as he dreams of 25:1’s. And call a doctor if it lasts longer than 4 hours!

    Off to coach an indoor soccer game that was not cancelled.

    1. Yes, I did see those isolated 8″ reports in Connecticut and that was the area from NW RI , SW into CT that I highlighted as a Jackpot area. Surprised it did extend so far south towards the JJ region.

  94. Just finished the front end dump now and no rain at all. Around maybe 5 I would say now out working the field . I believe another 2-4 inches this afternoon / tonight winding down between I’m going to guess 8-10 pm.

  95. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 16m16 minutes ago
    What this guy said -> #ithasfinallybegun RT @ToddWCSH: This Tuesday storm has beast potential.

    1. Wow …. Thank God the astronomical high tides of the last several days will have subsided some, if this comes true.

  99. Looking at Logan’s ob ….

    There was .30 melted an hour ago, while they reported all snow and a temp of 32F.

    The last ob has brought a rain/snow mix and .05 additional melted.

    So, I’d guestimate they will report anywhere from 2.5 to 3 inches of snow.

  103. Light rain/drizzle in Woburn. The change line has made it over 10 miles NW of Boston, and some of the change actually worked in from the SW when the intensity lightened up.

    AGAIN, showing how marginal a set up we were in. If anyone thinks this forecast was an easy one, they’re lying. 🙂

    1. Tk trying to plan the final cleanup…any guess when the addtional snow might be done in our area? Might just wait until the morning but not sure. Cleared my driveway but still need the roof and back done.

  105. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    HRRR beginning 6p & stepping every 2-hrs. Snows impacting E MA lifting out towards 10 pm

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    We’ll be monitoring thru evening for re-invigoration of snows, additional accums, reduced visibilities, impacts to travel

    1. Many people think this storm is over. In fact, it may catch many by surprise later today into this evening. Many towns will see an additional 2-4 inches.

  106. From David Epstein:

    Major storm to develop off New England’s shoreline Monday night into Tuesday
    Indications were strong enough on the potential of a Monday night into Tuesday storm from several days out to warrant putting it on Day 10 of my daily 10-day forecast on NECN’s morning show. It’s stayed there since, and signals are stronger than ever of a large storm developing off New England’s coast. This storm will be packed with energy, and fed by the contrast of warm southern air and moisture, and arctic air streaming in from the north. Location of the storm will be critical, but consider the plot, below of forecast radar (left) and surface wind gusts (right). While this particular solution (NAM model guidance) suggests snow and up to 70 mph wind gusts, I’d never encourage planning on specific details at this point…but the important part of this is the idea of a storm with huge bredth – an expansive strong and potentially damaging wind field, and a large swath of precipitation with cold air in place for New England. The result could be not only heavy, wind-driven snow with blizzard conditions, but also damaging wind, coastal surf and coastal flooding. Again…it’s early to determine exact impact, but when signals continue for several days consistently leading up to an event with the potential for such magnitude, it’s important to sit up, take notice, and stay tuned to forecast updates.

    2. Agree. Been following this quietly myself. I don’t allow myself to get too public about things too far in advance but it’s more than time to do it now.

      People need warning of what MAY take place, and what may take place could be quite sizable, right up there with some of our memorable ones.

      1. I told my wife a little while ago and she said Oh Yeah. Where did that come from. She doesn’t believe me.
        Won’t until she sees Eric, Barry or Harvey say it on TV. 😀

  108. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    [Late Mon. – Wed.] We’re aware of an intense storm & blizzard potential as signalled via @CIPSAnalogs. Can’t dispute the model consensus.

  109. Heading out to move the first 4 inches and get things clear for the easier scrape off of the final inch or 2 later after we go back to snow here. And I want everything neat for what may be coming…

    I’ll check in later!

  110. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago
    Really encourage everyone to clean up sidewalks and driveways today. Gets cold tonight, little melting tomorrow, then a deep freeze week.

  112. You look at the CMC run CT River Valley East POTENTIAL Major storm. West of their POTENTIAL Moderate storm.
    Is the CMC 10:1 ratio because if you have higher ratios all areas COULD get more than what that model is projecting.

    1. You may need a heavy shovel for what’s to come on Tuesday 😀

      I’m interested to hear your thoughts on the pending storm for Mon/Tues.

  114. Does anyone have insight into how the airlines get the weather info they need to start planning weather related changes and cancellations? I spoke to American Airlines this morning, and they said the announcement of change fee waivers would come 24-48 hours before a storm, so for an Monday night storm, the announcement could be as soon as tonight.

    Any predictions as to how far out this will start to seem like it will definitely happen, even as the details get ironed out? Will Mets fell confident in the Monday night storm forecast as soon as this evening? Or is that too soon?

  115. This will be os late tonight @@@@#%^##%%%%%%%%%|#%%
    What the hek is this @@@@&%%*+*^++***
    Lol just jabbing lol 🙂

  116. Just saw graphic from TWC it showed 12 plus POTENTIAL for next storm for eastern New England and 8 plus POTENTIAL for my area.
    I have a feeling I am going to get several inches but not huge amounts much like the blizzard of 2005.

      1. Vicki I got 30 inches of snow for the 2013 blizzard. I am 5 foot 8 inches tall and the snow banks were close to 8 feet
        tall. The biggest snowstorm of my lifetime. I remember driving around the day after it ended there were people digging
        out their own streets with snow blowers just to be able to get out.
        The January 2005 blizzard I got a foot of snow while eastern New England got a whole lot more.

        1. Thanks JJ. It was fun. I loved the roads being closed. We got 30 also. I remember not being able to open any doors to get out. Our son in law had to climb out the window 🙂

  119. The EURO maximizes the storm due south of us, then shows it slowly filling as it pulls away.

    I’m not looking at any specific maps, but the pressure gradient at 72 hrs looks impressive.

    1. In fact …. The storm nearly falls apart by the time it gets to the Maritimes.

      I wonder if thats a red flag or is a normal occurence for a storm that gets powerful nearby New England ?

  120. For the next storm, the 12z Euro paints a good 18-20″ for eastern MA on a 10:1 ratio. Double that and, well………

  121. Trying to figure out how much time I have to get out and shovel before the next batch of precip moves in. Sorry, if it’s already been posted. Thanks!

  122. I would shovel right now if there is a lull in the action. I went out and did went it stopped and I am glad I did as its drizzling now and would have added some more weight to an already water logged snow which accumulated 6 inches here.

  124. Tom, is that a good thing that it maximizes south Of us,( when I say a good thing meaning more snow) or does that mean the storm weakens when it heads towards us? Thanks

    1. Thats a good question Kane ?

      I was wondering the same thing.

      I think it doesnt change that we can get clobbered.

      I think it just might mean the storm finds the best overall atmospheric conditions around New England and then northeast of us, the conditions musnt be as favorable for maintaining or deepening the storm.

  125. 4.5 inches in Woburn so far.
    Currently light snow and sleet mix. We are heading the other way. 1-2 inches of snow to come thru early eve up here.

    Clear everything by tonight. Freeze up tomorrow.

  126. When we are about 48 hours away from snow for next storm… which would be tonight, I think we should set up a fun little snow amount contest for a few locations.

  128. Come Wednesday we are going to remember the next storm either for the immense snow dumping OR the string of profanity by O.S. if it suddenly goes OTS. Though something tells me his decibel level would cause window damage in the metro area and possible register on seismic equipment at Weston Observatory. 😉

  130. Logan : 21 inches

    Plymouth : 27 inches

    Marshfield : 31 inches and the actual jackpot location.

    Hyannis : 19 inches

    Nantucket : 8 inches

    Lowell : 13 inches

    Manchester, NH : 5 inches

    Concord, NH : crying !!

    For TK’s snow contest, I reserve the right to change my mind 3/4 of the way thru the storm. 🙂 🙂

  131. Oh man. Window is open it looks like. And if TK is perked up, I’m perked up. Will wait till tomorrow when I get home to get excited and make a call.

    FYI….

    I am sitting at the mt Washington hotel, drinking a cocktail, looking at “weather” building over the presidential range. Freaking AWESOME

    2. Wundermap is hard to use. On a frame it gives Boston 12-13 inches, BUT
      that is NOT the total storm.

      Can anyone post the Euro snow map. If Euro says 18 inches at 10:1
      and ratio is 15:1 then that’s 27 inches and approaching record territory.

      Hoefully we can get a better grip on this tomorrow (pun intended for all you
      football fans)

      NOW I HOPE WE DON’T GET DEFLATED!!!!!

  134. Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss 12m12 minutes ago
    ESPN’s @ESPNMichele, at Gillette Stadium, says Patriots expected to make an announcement around 2:30 p.m. ET. No details on announcement.

  135. Tom E. Curran ‏@tomecurran 3m3 minutes ago
    Staying loose for an announcement here. Cryptic. We were told we “shouldn’t leave.” Player access ended at 12:15 practice was at 12:30.

      1. Charlie maybe you can answer the one question I cannot find an answer for. Do ball boys travel with the team or does the visiting team use the hosts ball boys?

  136. How am I not seeing any more coming this way on the radar?

    Suggestion…..maybe put guesses on the contest page. I’ll try and consolidate them into a spreadsheet

  138. @NWSBoston: [Late Mon. – Wed.] We are leaning towards a rather high impact storm event especially for Southern and Eastern New England.

    Duuuuh!

  140. Vicki, roads were ok. Just went from North Attleboro through Boston to the North Shore. Wet pavement. Not bad at all.

    1. So nice of you to tell me. Son decided to stay in RI. He was working travel around nap time of grandson and it just didn’t work out :(.

      Thank you VERY much !

  141. FWIW, the 12z Euro ensembles agreed with the operational. Looks to be a mean of a little under 18″ for Boston, which for an ensemble mean is very impressive. And that assumes a 10:1 ratio, actual ratios should be 15:1 or higher.

  143. How’d BB do? I’m off the grid. This is about perception equalling reality. Could be about Bocci balls, wouldn’t matter. How’d he do.

      1. Many thanks TK. Bellichick may work in the gray area from time to time, but I do not believe the guy is a liar. Liars can’t be successful COACHES and LEADERS for FOURTY years. Even those Enron boys with their Harvard degrees and political connections could only pull it off for no more than a few years.

      2. I agree. Macs dad was one of Goodyears key trouble shooters. Mac has an obsession passed down with measuring tires. He has yet to find a gauge….and he spends $$$ …..that works consistently from tire to tire. Also the more gauges are used, the more calibration they need.

        It all made sense and I completely believed every word. He is clearly upset to have had to do this when his focus should be elsewhere.

    2. You’ll get different answers depending on who answers :). I think he did great. They spent time testing and came up with some reasonable explanations IMHO

      1. They are going to get a never-ending amount of sound-bites out of that about ball rubbing and ball handling, etc. … but my favorite quote: “We’re not polishing fine china…”

        CLASSIC!!

  144. Bob Kraft needs to get the best marketing and PR people he can find to clean this up as
    much as he can over the next year.

    1. Patriots are in a great spot, you would be suprised, everyone has to watch them, they get the most national games, same next year, there going to be a 3+B franchise, and they win. It’s all about the eyes in the NFL, if they win there 4th they go down as the best ever, people can say what they want, there just jealous, there tears of jealousy taste and smell like sweet cinnamon buns 🙂

  146. Back to weather for a moment… Just a quick update here guys and gals. We’re back to snow here in Woburn though the back tail is not all that extensive. That said I see the opportunity to squeeze some more out of the atmosphere in the next 4 hours and I believe the radar may fill in. I still like the 1 to 2 inch additional snow potential for now though it may be a little closer to 1 versus 2. This is through 6 or 7PM for central MA and southwestern NH and 7 or 8PM for RI and eastern MA and southeastern NH.

    I’m taking a short break after having shoveled. A nice shower and a snack. I’ll be back after 4PM to speculate a bit on the early week event.

    2. Thanks. I roof raked and it started coming down once I finished but that’s life. Not worried about addtional snow on the roof. If I get ice dams over an inch I have a bigger problem ha

  149. So I missed this whole Belichek thing…can someone summarize what happened? Was out getting snow up.

  151. NAM is STILL ON BOARD, collecting tickets for the SNOW TRAIN!!!!!

    Snow map and snow ain’t done at 84 hours

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Surface at height

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012418&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=072

    Wind gusts

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012418&time=PER&var=GUSTM&hour=069

    1. LMAO !!

      You know, the one part is his press conference that really was important to me was when he stuck up for the team’s accomplishments.

      On facebook, I have shared my opinion, very critical of the team and rather doubting them on this matter.

      With that said, they are the Best team in the AFC and it needed to be said !

  155. Watch out in a few hrs.

    NJ radar filling in fast and gaining intensity and maybe a convergence zone also setting up in western New England, headed eastward.

    It could be crazy around 6 or 7 pm.

  158. As expected, radar filling in. The stuff in NJ is heading out south of here. It’s the stuff in southwestern and western New England and filling in overhead now that will keep the snow going for a few more hours.

    Looking over some of the snow reports, the original snowfall call was not that far off at all, just a little under forecast right around Boston and had to add that extra inch or so in the jackpot zone.

  159. Looks like round 2 is here as snow just started again in the city. Long day hopefully out by tomorrow. I’m going with another 2 inches at least for this next round . Just reading here quick looks like you guys calling for a big one next week time will tell. Be safe, back to the field .

      1. Tk when you say something like that, I TAKE NOTICE! 😀
        I’m ALREADY there, but when you are. WOW! I’m impressed!

        Btw, this set up in some ways reminds me of the Blizzard of
        78. Am I off base. I know it’s not exact, but somewhat similar?
        No?

        2. ’78 is a stretch because that storm was truly so rare a set-up. The synoptic set up may mimic that one a little, but that high in Quebec will be further east and not almost 1060mb. The Arctic air will be less in magnitude. The set up for tides, completely different. Even the storm itself, potentially a slow mover, is still not likely to take the exact track and sit for as long as that one did.

          Of course again this is assuming that the guidance is generally having the right idea and not staging some mass trickery. 😉

          1. Yes, understood. But I find the general overall
            set up to be somewhat similar. Our cold is STRONGER this time around. It was not particularly cold during the blizzard, IF I remember correctly it was about 24 or 25 here during it. This one looks to track outside more
            and move closer in response to negative tilt, but
            they will be in somewhat similar positions.

            Either way, it’s going to be SOMETHING to behold, unless previously mentioned MR. WRENCH shows up. 😀

      2. I cannot tell you how many times my head has snapped around at your comments re mon/tues. This rare for our TK. Very exciting.

  160. Oh by the way, when I went out to clean up snow, I measured again. This is after some
    compaction and drizzle rain. Still Measured 4.5 inches.

  161. Another reason why the point forecasts are so fun from NWS…

    “Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. Areas of fog after 1pm. Areas of freezing fog before 1pm. High near 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%.”

    I love it. High temp 21, a full dozen degrees below freezing, but the only time the fog will be “freezing” is before 1PM. 😉

  162. NWS discussion re: Monday still PUKES out stuff from last night.

    What a bunch of DING DONGS!_@(#&*!*(@&)#!(@(*(!@#

  163. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 4m4 minutes ago
    Most are going to get another couple inches this evening as final band develops and moves thru.

  164. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3NcOLieEIo

    Posted this in the past when big events are coming. Makes me laugh.

    FYI-The storm in the video put down 10″ at Logan, Taunton, and Hartford BDL. 20″ at ORH and about 20-24″ in the RT 2 Snow Belt.

    Something is coming on Tuesday. I am traveling beginning tomorrow thru Thursday so I will be more out of touch, but will try to offer some early thoughts tomorrow morning before leaving.

    FYI back edge line moving through now but falling as a snow / sleet mix. Not real pleasant….

    2. Funny but couldn’t help but wonder if folks caught in disasters before we had warning would prefer that. It is all about perspective 🙂

  167. Because the next event is not much more than 48 hrs away from beginning, (I hooe that timing is within reason), I wonder if we transition straight from today’s warnings/advisories …… straight back to watches for the the early week system.

      1. Also continues a theme of the storm reaching its max intensity just south or southeast of New England, then slowly filling as it pulls away.

        1. I’d think thats worrisome, because, well … For example tonight’s bombing low …. Sure, the wind is increasing and we’ll get some snow again this evening, but it wont be near our area when it reaches its most intense state.

          1. Thats what concerns me.

            Big wind with a lot of wet snow and maybe even worst, a bit of rain into the snow,mincreasing the weight on the trees. Thats what caused 3, 4 and 5 day power outages two years ago.

  169. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
    Mon into Tues, GFS 18z model absolutely unloads on coast from NJ to New England w/huge snowfall potential #yardstick

    1. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago
      50-knot wind gusts … GFS 18z uncorking blizzard criteria (?). 974 mb just east of Chatham Mass. Whoa.

  170. Look at the radar in the white mountains. I am directly under that band. It’s intense. Narrow but intense. Guessing 1-2 inch rate.

  172. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 18s18 seconds ago
    18z GFS stays the course on a major nor’easter Monday night into Wednesday am. Big wind/waves/snow in play.

    1. Hey …. I know it might snow somewhat less in Marshfield with that GFS track, but thats ridiculous !! LOL 🙂

  175. Mark Rosenthal ‏@weatherblast 3m3 minutes ago
    Slick roads tonight with another 1-3″ of snow.
    Big blizzard potential Mon night and Tue.

    He said the “B” word. 😀

  176. OS, has today’s snow and what apparently is coming Tuesday made up for the first 6 weeks of winter so far ??

      1. I’ll admit it OS.

        Yes, when the weather in winter is quiet, I really like that. Its easy to deal with and I find that helpful.

        But, when a big snowstorm is in the cards, my little kid enthusiasm resurfaces. 🙂 🙂

  177. Anyone watching the radar fill in just as predicted by TK. Pretty cool.
    SNOWING steadily here and re-covering everything.

        1. It’s is no joke…It can hold 10 or so cars if you park them right…and it slopes down so if Tuesday is a windy snow I will get double the amount at the bottom of the driveway.

    2. And that is what impresses me about TK and so many of you. I saw absolutely nothing coming here on radar a bit ago.

  178. from NWS office just awhile ago

    IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
    BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG…POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
    ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
    TO CATEGORICAL POPS…HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
    QUESTION IS…WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME WITH THIS STORM.

  179. I saw on Unisys weather, at 4pm, it was 35F in Burlington, VT !!

    This event today really did do quite well for snow/frozen precip given what little cold air it had to work with.

  181. Harvey & Mike, channel 5 re: Mon and Tues.
    1) Current track would bring a nor’easter
    2) Current track would give some areas a foot or more
    3) Very strong winds likely
    4) Possible blizzard along coast
    5) Slow mover.

    They, fortunately, did not produce a snow map. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of them tomorrow.

  183. Snowing again in Plymouth now. My Jamaican stepdaughters thought today’s snow was awesome, wait til they see the next one if it comes to fruition.

  185. Steady, accumulating snow in Wrentham, that back end band is pretty solid. Made a nice snowman with the family 🙂

    Not as impressive as Captain’s though, mine’s only ~5′ tall. Perfect snow for doing it though!

  186. One of these bands just maxed out right over my head. Moderate to borderline heavy snow just came in like a wall, big flakes. Like a snow squall without the wind.

      1. Was expecting 1-2 from this stuff. We’re getting that. About 1 hour to go then it’s done.

          1. If you shoveled earlier, it isn’t completely vital to do it tonight if you’re not going anywhere. This snow is medium consistency, not wet slop, and it is going into the 20s tonight with clearing later. The thin accumulation will still be there in the morning pretty much the same as it is now. You’d only have to watch for wet or slushy areas that were left from earlier that would freeze up. I’m guessing your driveway was pretty clear before these final bands. 🙂

        2. We only got about a 1/2″ of fluff out in the valley from the back end bands. Conviently it got us to 4″ at the house which was exactly my prediction for here. I have long played the weather geek game of predict the exact amount of snow to fall at home. My wife, kids and neighbors hold me very accountable for even 1″ of error.

  187. I’m not sure if you are out there checking the blog Charlie, but your section of the state is going to get the heaviest of this final band, moderate to briefly heavy snow with about an inch or so in the next hour.

      1. I’ve had almost 2 additional inches since the 4.5 I measured this afternoon. Most areas are getting 1-2 out of these final bands. But it will be over by about 8PM Metro West and 9PM coast, a bit later Cape Cod.

  189. On my way back from fathers birthday, back roads r white rt 1 is wet and we have about a half inch so far

  190. Here the vis. came up a bit but just went down to about 1/4 mile here again! Final band I believe.

  193. Lol in an hr I’ve got to get my wife and her 3 coworkers from 128 and bring them home, they went to the Garth brooks concert

  195. Very light snow falling still, not nearly as heavy as between 6:15-7:15pm, we picked up .7 in that timeframe, since 7:15 we’ve picked up .1

  197. Starting to wind down in the city I believe after just having a heavy burst come through . Ok I think I’ve had enough for one day I’m beat !!!

    1. I’m sure you and your colleagues did a top notch job today !

      Hoping you can get some well deserved rest !

  200. Well, I think we’ve seen 2 or 3 sets of model runs advertising a big event, so, I feel pretty confident its coming.

    I think what I’m looking for in the 00z runs is ….. How strong/deep is the upper level feature, what is its orientation and how does those factors impact how close the low tracks to our coastline ?

    Also, do we continue to see the theme of a huge pressure gradient, implying a lot of wind ? Do we see the same types of pressures, mid 970s, while there’s a nearly 1030mb high to our north and northeast.

    With a cold high to the north, I think a lot of snow is a given. I’m looking to see if another set of model runs continue to advertise big winds along the coastline.

    1. In realty the NAM and GFS are probably both somewhat overdone this far out. They usually are. But even taking them down a couple notches will still leave a whole lot of qp, cold air, and wind for a memorable winter storm.

    1. We’ve received about 3/4 inch of snow the last hour or so. Its snowing steadily right now.

      Its put a very nice cover atop a waterlogged snow.

      I’m looking foward to seeing the landscape tomorrow, especially if the sun can shine on the fresh snowcover. I always enjoy that winter scene.

  204. Total here is 3.1 between both events, 2.3 earlier and .9 = 3.2 that is compacted to about 2.5, total for yr to date 7.1 should be at 24-25 inches to date for here 🙂

    2. I’d like to know how many years had between 24 and 25 inches of total snow on January 24. 🙂 Probably not many. 😉

  206. With that Logan meaurement it won’t be the least snowiest winter on record and IF that storms pans it it will be far from the least snowiest winter on record.

    1. Hadi,

      I think by him posting all the different models on twitter is misleading and confusing. The GFS and Euro I thought had much higher amounts. I’m not a big fan of them using every different model.

  208. Think I got 3″ or more…out here now and shoveling is so bad. Can’t move more than 5 feet and the shovel is overflowing with snow. Going to be a long night,

    1. Are you sure you shoveled earlier? There must have been a tiny heavy echo right over you. My friend on Zion had under 2 inches from the evening stuff.

  210. Interesting NAM run so far ….

    Can see the low getting captured and not allowed to track out to sea.

    Precip moves in from due south, not from say Washington or Philly.

    1. Yes.

      Eastern Mass bonanza.

      Now, the question is ……

      Does the NAM have a decent handle on the low being captured ?

  221. Will see if it trends more east will future runs, will know TOMMORROW if it’s a graze or a good hit, goodnight 🙂

  222. Been playing on instant weather maps the last 20 minutes trying to overlap the 18z and 00z 500 mb maps for any subtle differences.

    Make no mistake about it …..

    On the 18z run at hr 66, the deepest closed part of the 500 mb low is centered south of Long Island.

    On the 00z run at hour 60 (same time as hr 66 on 18z run), the deepest part of the 500 mb low is centered south of Martha’s Vineyard, clearly an eastward displacement that explains the eastward jog in the surface low.

    I looked upstream, ie further west and I cant see anything over the continental US that looks different as relates to the amplitude and location of the western ridge. They looked to be exact in the same locations 18z vs 00z.

    I did notice, what I thought might be the most subtle difference in a weakness that extended from southern Hudson Bay (James Bay) extemding down to about Toronto.

    This weakness looked ever so slightly more amplified at 18z than it did at 00z. Perhaps that is the reason for the eastward jog ????

      2. Give you an idea of the difference of inland impact
        45 Miles from Boston
        Worcester at 12z NAM 2.4 QPF 18z NAM 1.4 00z NAM 0.8
        90 Miles from Boston
        Springfield at 12z Nam 2.2 QPF 18z NAM 0.6 00z NAM 0.27

        You can see the staggering differences in roughly 45 mile intervals.

  223. David in his blog was saying the first 10 days of February could be record breaking rival cold coming through one that we have not seen in awhile. Feels good about Tuesday but won’t put out numbers till tomorrow afternoons computer runs. Also was saying there could be the famous rain/snow line to follow.

  224. I’m leaning towards the brunt over cape cod with blizzard conditions 14-18, Boston south and east 10-15 inches, just inland 8-12 inches, dramatic drop off as you go west of 128 to 4-8 inches to 3-6 inches west of 495.

  225. Trying to do the same 18z GFS vs 00Z GFS comparison …

    and unlike the change in the NAM, the GFS’ 500 mb features look to be in exactly the same spot and thus, the surface low track looks rather comparable on both runs.

    Now, I wonder which model at this point is more telling …

    The NAM that changed or the GFS that is holding course ?

    1. If I recall the many posts JMA has recently written on the GFS and understood them correctly, I’m hesistant to trust the GFS fully 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I’m not sure what to think of the differences on the NAM either.

      Well, one consistent message I guess ….. a pretty strong storm.

      1. GFS has been decent and not overdoing precip. The GFS that was in hypersample or being run at too high a resoultion had issues, but this current hybrid upgrade that is lower resolution but many parameter and input tweaks has been ok.

        It is the ECMWF that has been overdoing snowfall amounts in this time frame. Remember at 48-60 hours it had Logan getting 17″+ today.

        00z GFS is at about 2.25″ for Boston. Again none of this is a forecast on amounts, but I think the general theme will be areas east of Worcester are at higher risks for significant impact.

  227. I love this…so at least 6 different plows came down my street over the past two hours. Nothing left to plow…it’s mint. So a city truck comes and puts a ton of salt down on the street…case closed. Nope. Since then two plows have come pushing pavement and stripping the salt away. I don’t get it…don’t these people communicate? Like we salted this street don’t come down here.

    1. Nope it’s often just trying to make money, back in the 70’s-80’s and 90’s it was 3 inches then plow, now it’s snows 1 inch and let’s go plow

  229. nothing like skiing on fresh POW and then after A few runs they go through and groom it and it was amazing 😀

    Now watching that storm monday night through tuesday
    Nam looks a bit weaker. and further out to sea than previously. been showing a gradual decrease in snowfall.
    gfs shifted the jackpot area i little bit further south
    waiting on the latest CMC snowmap, but looks like it wants to push the heavy stuff over a larger area than previous run
    Not really sure what to think right now

  230. gfs snow map
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012500/gfs_asnow_neus_14.png
    the newest canadian snow map
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012500/gem_asnow_neus_13.png
    JMA precipitation amounts with snow ratios around 15 to 1 generally it shows about 12 inches to as much as 24 inches in eastern sections
    Nam shows much much less in general
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015012500/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png
    put it also shows
    .75 inches of water or greater in eastern sections
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015012500/namconus_apcpn_neus_24.png
    won’t be putting any numbers for snowfall until tomorrow some time

    1. Oh I neeed to add an editorial here.

      Ummm errrrr

      That’s pushing 40 inches for Boston!!!

      KOWABUNGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  233. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    456 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

    .SYNOPSIS…
    COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
    POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT…TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY…BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

  234. OS, I believe you made the call early on yesterday – potentially “historic” !
    THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
    STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM. IN ADDITION…HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

  235. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    If you have a temperature of 15 degrees and a wind speed of 20 MPH, what is the estimated wind chill temperature?
    A. 3 degrees
    B. 0 degrees
    C. -2 degrees
    D. -5 degrees

    Answer later today.

  236. TV Mets beginning to show various snow maps.

    Channel 4: Showed one map for one model giving Boston 28.”
    Channel 5: Showed two broad swaths, one being 1-2 ft in central MA and the other 1.5-2 ft in eastern and southeastern MA

  237. D.
    I had a nigthmare last night in which I was watching the television and saw the low pressure taking a left hook into CT bringing a big time rainorama.
    I woke up to see winter storm and blizzard watches up for SNE and said oh thank god it was just a bad dream and everything is on track.

  241. Good morning all! I woke up early to check on the latest weather reports since I am like a little kid when storms are brewing. I do my grocery shopping on Sunday’s so I think I will go now before the mayhem commences in the milk and bread aisles.

  242. Hadi I have not seen language in reading the technical discussions out of both Upton and Taunton since the blizzard of 2013.
    This storm SHOULD it produce the type of snow the models are depicting is going to wipe out the snowfall deficits across SNE.

  244. Add to it snow drifts from all the blowing and drifting of snow you get 30 inches you have drifts as high as 8 feet maybe a little higher. I know that was the case in my town after getting 30 inches with the blizzard of 2013.

    1. Wow.

      I feel like we talk a lot about the NAM, etc and how accurate their snowfall projections are.

      I’m not recalling as much discussion on the CMC.

      How does it do generally for snowfall ?

  247. I believe the 3 high tides of concern are …..

    Tues AM : 4:30. Tuesday PM : 5:00. Wednesday AM : 5:30.

    Best case scenario is that the worst of the storm and its continuous buildup of water maximize late morning on Tuesday, which would line up with low tide.

    The 2 morning tides are a bit astronomically higher than the Tuesday evening tide.

  249. Folks you know I am not an alarmist and I am generally on the low end of guidance and 95% of the time my calm measured approach serves me well.

    This storm is very real, very powerful and will impact human life and property. Don’t spend your day looking at models, worrying about LERs and backend snow. Get done what you need to make sure you have supplies for storm survial, way of life disruption, and the ability to clear significant amounts of snow and if you don’t you make arrangements with who can.

    The storm will come earlier Monday than people think. Early afternoon to early evening and them ramp up fast by the evening. It is going to last throughoit Tuesday and into the night / Wednesday morning.

    Yes all the limiting factors for some will come into play, dry slots, shadow effects, etc. doesn’t matter right now. Prepare for a 20″ plus storm, high winds, coastal flooding, power outages, property damage, and near impossible travel for as long as 36 hours and if that is wrong or over hyped blame the weather person after.

    4. JMA thank you. I know just like TK you guys don’t hype anything so if your using lanaguage like that people should take
      notice and start preparing.
      Let me ask you this due you see this equal to or more impactful than the blizzard of 2013.

  250. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the fastest speed that a falling raindrop can hit you?

    A. 12 MPH
    B. 14 MPH
    C. 16 MPH
    D. 18 MPH

    Answer later today.

  251. Storm Mon/Tues, and another possibly on Thur/Fri and then some of the coldest air we’ve seen this season!

  252. Just getting up and WOW!. NWS event hinting potential for Blizzard warning interior – that doesn’t happen often. Out side of the most obvious and important- being safe – this is pretty exciting. I’m concerned about the shores. That’s when you find yourself not rooting for storms sometimes.

  253. Can’t believe we’re talking about a storm like this. Two days ago this wasn’t even on the maps. Even a day ago it was iffy at best. Stay safe everyone, because the way it looks now this could rival any storm we’ve ever seen up here.

    Even where I will be up in Plymouth, NH we could still easily see a foot of snow, maybe more.

    1. I’m in Plymouth now… Common man inn… What a beautiful quaint place, weekend away with the wife, 4 mile snow shoe heading back today.

  255. 06GFS give about 3 inches of precip to Bosotn with this storm. At a 10:1 ratio which we know is too low that would be 30 inches of snow!

    1. I hadnt looked at a run of the 06z GFS for as long as I could remember ….

      Until this morning. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  258. Charlie, and even when it doesn’t snow at your house for this next storm, you should get some accumulation from the wind blowing it in from the next town. 🙂

    1. I’d imagine so !

      Thats why I’ll try to get whatever I think we need from …… Rite Aid. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  262. When jma and TK start talking like this we know it’s the real deal. Heading to costco today which is usual so will report how crazy it is.

  264. JJ for now I will just say a storm of similar proportions compared to 2/5-2/6 2013. That storm had 60-80mph wind gusts and this might be more in the 40-65 mph range. That storm had snows in the 30″ range in the populous area of suburban Hartford and I at this time might think that area would be less than that and the best snow growth region would be the SW suburbs of Boston. Also I think this storm could be longer duration eastern areas than that one. That is way too specific for right now and I will continue with idea of 20″ plus possible to probable for a wide portion of the region combined with long duration event with high winds

    Ok. I am headed out of town for work today. Got a plow guy and neighbors arranged, plenty of oil and propane. The propane works when power is out. Be safe, be well!

    I am quite confident that you will get the most detailed, most accurate guidance from TK.

  265. The latest computer guidance is downright scary. SNE is only 30-36 hours away from the storm and computer models continue to lock in on a blizzard. 18-24 inches of snow is quite conservative folks. Widespread 2-3′ with isolated 4′ amounts is not out of the realm of possibility east of Worcester. Not to mention, powerful winds will take a toll on us as well. We’re in for it.

  266. If anyone is in need of ice melt (I prefer calcium chloride) you might consider heading out for it today. I just called the Home Depot in Watertown and they’re down to 2 pallets! That’ll be gone in minutes. The nice gentlemen in gardening is holding me a bag at the service desk!!!

    1. Synoptic set up has similarities, but not to the same magnitude and of course will be missing other fine details.

    1. I know its a standard answer, but I think it applies here ….

      Lighter density snow further inland you go ……… Wetter, heavier snow as you approach the coastal areas.

  271. I’m thinking more about coastal flooding on this question vs any impact on snow at the coast …….

    Anyone have a feel or ideas for what the wind direction will be at the storm’s max point ………

    Coastal flooding impacts regardless, but, I’d think 020 might be a little more helpful, while something like 050 really drives the water and holds it in along the shoreline.

      1. Yes, I also read that on the NWS site.

        That would be a problem because I think a 12.0 or 12.5 ft high tide in Boston Harbor represents when flooding begins (with wind created waves, of course 🙂 )

        That Tuesday morning tide is 10.5 ft. If a 3 ft storm surge is added, that brings it to 13.5 ft and I believe that is at least usually moderate flooding.

    1. Eyes on rapidly deepening lows such as that are actually not that uncommon. It’s not a true warm core eye like in a tropical cyclone, just an interior clear slot that forms from dry air entrainment basically pooling in the center of low pressure.

        1. 🙂 Back from getting the last bag of ice melt in the store, and only because it was being held for me! Grocery store is starting to get crowded. I think everyone was at the deli, including me 🙂 Plan to fill up the tank later today.

  274. Going to try this ….

    Overlapping features of the 00z NAM with the 12z NAM …

    The one thing that strikes me is a little feature in the upper midwest looks just a bit sharper, more amplified on the 12z NAM than the 00z NAM.

    Perhaps that sharpens up the whole trof and pulls the 500mb low further west on the 12z run.

    I’m going to guess the 12z NAM will come back closer to the coast, as compares to the 00Z NAM.

    1. Wow, the 1 hr increments are done now on the NAM, heading to 3 hr increments …

      But, from about hr 34 to hr 36, each hr, it looked like the lows pressure was falling about 2 mb per hr !!!!

  275. Good morning. Just got caught up on posts.

    The scariest thing of all are the comments from TK and JMA. When they are
    talking like that, it’s the REAL deal. And, I might add, they can’t say what Arod can.
    What Arod said is a big concern.

    I’m making my run in a little while. I am WORRIED.

    From NWS

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

    * TIMING…THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

    * IMPACTS…HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
    POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
    ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST…THE SNOW MAY BE WET
    ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.
    TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING ACROSS THE
    ENTIRE REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC STORM.

    * WINDS…NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

    1. NWs is being conservative.

      I have seen near 30 inch totals on snow maps for like 4 successive runs now.

      Waiting for 12Z NAM and then I have to go.

  276. Just went to grocery store. It wasn’t bad, but I suggest you go now if you need to. Can’t imagine what it will look like at noon.

  278. Repost of Quizzes.

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    If you have a temperature of 15 degrees and a wind speed of 20 MPH, what is the estimated wind chill temperature?
    A. 3 degrees
    B. 0 degrees
    C. -2 degrees
    D. -5 degrees

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the fastest speed that a falling raindrop can hit you?

    A. 12 MPH
    B. 14 MPH
    C. 16 MPH
    D. 18 MPH

    Answers later today.

    1. Inevitable with storms like these, I feel. But while it may impact show totals somewhat, I’m betting even locations that do dry slot end up with significant amounts.

  281. Good morning all…

    I am taking my mom to the store for a few things. This is not a “storm run” but a usual Sunday morning thing. After I get back (later 10AM hour) I will be updating the blog.

    Many things to cover………… Be back in a while!

  282. Preparing to email employees to start conversation about telecommuting. Trying to determine when travel will become bad vs. impossible and if WEDNESDAY is also in jeopardy. Thoughts?

    1. DS do you have a special email alert system at work? I am curious because I have 30 people working on a project right now and I need to get to them.

      1. No special system. Our senior staff (myself and two others) confer and then send recommendations to managers and staff. The only time we ever officially “close” is when recommended by governor. But we allow managers to make the best call for their individual teams.

        We also have a phone chain in case of company wide closures, as well as a call in number.

  284. A quick note: the 18-24 the NWS is painting right now is GOOD FIRST CALL and will probably be right for most of the area. They will add strips of 24+ later when they can narrow down where that may happen. Believe me, they will not be all that widespread, as far as the whole of SNE goes. They made the right move to begin with.

    Be back soon!

    1. I suppose they have to be careful. yes, I can live with that.
      Personally, I think they will be higher. We shall see.

  285. 12Z NAM is dumoing the goods big time ALL the way down to Northern New Jersey, including the NYC area.

  287. The 12z NAM is back to including inland areas as well, storm closer to benchmark again.

    Pressure drop from hr 39 to hr 45 was about 10mb in 6 hrs.

    Composite radar reflectivity makes me think th snow amounts are going to be the most of all the NAM’s runs so far.

  288. I don’t know IF I can say this, but the 12Z NAM looks even MORE loaded.
    REALLY deepening this thing BIG TIME. And the SNOW! OMG!

    1. Yes, so is the WIND !

      Its gone bonkers !

      70 mph touching the coast, 50 and 60 mph contours somewhat inland.

    4. I have to disagree this time my friend.

      The storm reaches its full fury closest to us.

      Its weakening as it pulls away.

      Downeast Maine wont see as much snow or wind as our region.

      Its not the type of storm that keeps getting stronger as it pulls away from New England. We are actually getting the strongest part of the storm.

    1. Please see above Charlie.

      I dont think most of central and down east Maine are the winners in this event.

  293. Good morning folks I was just checking water temps from Florida to Atlantic Canada water temps look to be about three to five degrees warmer than last winter the north wall of the Gulf Stream is further north and west from it usual position Diamond Shoals water temp 70 degrees East Scotia slope temp 54 degrees even our near shore water seems to be warmer than usual maybe this added enery will give our storm some extra thump I hope not.

      1. I remember a just past October or November storm.

        The overall atmosphere was milder, so no snow was involved.

        But, the setup for a deepening, just offshore storm has some similarities.

        The storm overacheived in terms of wind and rain. Heck, when the upper level low joined the party, some thunderstorms rotated in off of the ocean.

        Does anyone remember this event from 3 or so months ago ?

  294. This will be ongoing from Monday afternoon until Wednesday morning or a tad later.
    VERY long duration storm. Very very dangerous storm. Very very serious situation.

  295. Charlie, u can will this thing to bust all u want, but its coming and i sincerely hope u dont underestimate it. It will be a dangerous situation come tuesday morning.

    3. Just wait guys, it’s a happy blog, but many many many times I’ll see this #%^%%€^€^^%%%%^^^%%^ and then everyone on here wonders what happen, I’ll prefer to wait till TOMMORROW morning and adjust like most will, we won’t get 40 or 50 inches, I’ll sit on the sidelines for now and monitor. Enjoy ur day, be patient 🙂 if I were a betting man I’d say 10-20 inches, me and my wife looked at each other and said a 3 day vacation to Florida leaving TOMMORROW night, we’re looking up flights now ekkkk

  297. If the NAM was spitting out these numbers 5 days ago i would say yes, cut them in half. While i dont see us getting 40″ someone could end up with 3ft

      1. Charlie, you may think it’s funny now, but you won’t on Tuesday!!!
        AND 3 feet is a distinct possibility in some areas.

  299. Look at our storm in its infancy, yet it looks loaded already. ANd that is a clipper
    that has dropped down from the dry Canadian plains. Hmmm
    Does it mean anything? I don’t know, but it’s looking impressive at this early hour.
    When it hits the coast and Arctic air and the upper juice! HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

  301. Subtle little things ….

    Its on this NAM snow projection and I feel like I’ve seen it on others ….

    Climatologically, in events similar to this one, the area that gets the outrageous amounts is a zone thats just SW of Boston.

    I dont know if its the trajectory of the NE wind hitting a slight bump in elevation that wrings out that little extra previp or what, but I’d be inclined to think that may happen again.

    1. Thats me! Same places to see the most snow in ’78. I could see places like Randolph back through Milton and down to say Franklin getting or exceeding 3ft.

    2. Agree. Southwest of Boston is one jackpot but another area that may share the jackpot, although further away from the storm’s center, is the Worcester Hills and perhaps northwest part of the state due to mesoscale bands that set up in these locales that are not projected by computer models.

  304. Just back from grocer store as this is also my shopping day. Very quiet. The store knows, however. They had fake logs and real logs and coolers and canned soups etc all over the place.

  306. I must admit that the TV met snow maps have been in the reasonable range … at least so far. Most topping out at 24.” I am sure the revisions will come tomorrow.

      1. Run not that far out. I have to leave like 10 minutes ago, so I won’t be here for the end. Later for me. Others will show you/tell you.

    2. Long duration event. At least 36-40 hours in duration and it will be snowing moderately to heavy the entire time except for the unpredictable dry slot although I do not see that in any of the models onshore anyways. Hence, 3-4 ft amounts in isolated areas is not out of the question OS! Now we have something to talk about which is when you will see a lot of me on these boards.

      1. Ofcourse NOT out of the question. Just saying the GFS depiction is about 12-16 hours of HEAVY duty stuff then long duration
        of lighter stuff, still accumulating of course. And this is just one model. 😀

  310. Top 5 Snowstorms for Boston (Records since 1892)

    February 17-18, 2003 27.5″
    February 6-7, 1978 27.1″
    February 24-27, 1969 26.3″
    March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4″
    February 8-9, 2013 24.9″

  311. Wcvb has an outline of different computer models. I thought they were all pretty much in agreement? 5s comparison didnt seem to show that

      1. I like Harvey but thats about the only thing i like about 5. Their graphics and presentations need a serious overhaul.

            1. I thought it was also. I got it on FB and thought it might encourage some folks to not take it as seriously. And sure enough one “friend” already said there is no agreement in models.

        1. Mets giving their predictions I will not criticize. But giving wrong numbers is dangerous. Hadi good for you to tell him.

  312. Top 5 Snowstorms for Providence (records since 1905)

    February 6-7, 1978 28.6″
    January 22-23, 2005 23.4″
    January 7-8, 1996 22.8″
    February 14-16, 1962 18.9″
    February 4, 1961 18.3″

  313. Top 5 Snowstorms for Taunton (KBOX) (records since 1996)

    December 5-7, 2003 25.9″
    March 31-April 1, 1997 23.3″
    February 8-9, 2013 22.7″
    March 7-8, 2013 19.7″
    January 22-23, 2005 18.0″

      1. Oh, I just noticed the disparity in record keeping dates …

        Still, one might think one would have happened since 96 at both locations.

  315. SAVE YOURSELVES THE TROUBLE

    Don’t pay attention to the model #’s that Ch 5 is running. I hate to dis anybody, but posting those are a waste of time, and misleading, and some of them have been incomplete.

    I spotted 2 typos on ONE graphic last night. I know there is a lot to do to get ready for TV, but they need to check over things before they get put on air.

  316. Last night they were running 4 models on the newscast…

    GFS
    ECMWF
    NAM
    RPM

    All differing enough in details to completely confuse most viewers.

  317. So say the current forecast holds (I think it will at the very least) and the storm winds down Wednesday morning. Then there is the chance of more snow later in the week…late Thursday into Friday from what I thought I heard. If that happens cleanup during the week and weekend will be a bear especially if the late week event is even a moderate event. Hold on to your hats folks.

    1. Thats what happened in January 2005.

      We got crushed by a cut off northeaster on a Sunday. Incredible amts of wet snow. Doing a great job, Marshfield was ready to go back to school late that week.

      Then, another 7 inches either fell that Thursday or Friday and we lost the whole week of school. And the snow depth after those 2 events was as deep as I’ve seen it this close to the ocean.

    2. at this time it looks weak, but then again just like this storm we have to wait until after the first one

      1. Yep…even a weak storm however (let’s say 2-4, 3-5 inches) will throw a monkey wrench into the works.

  318. TK,

    One other thing I was thinking about is that with the low in the position its forecast to be in and a high to the northeast pumping in cold, dry air ….

    Do you think the timing on the arrival of snow into parts of northeastern Massachusetts might be a little slower than the models are showing ?

    1. It may be a little, but we may actually see some ocean effect bands try to set up and slide in from the ocean before the actual synoptic snow from the storm itself moves in. Something to watch.

        1. Tom iirc that Jan 2005 storm caused some ocean effect snow before the main event. At least I think it was that storm. I remember going up to my mother-in-laws house in Hingham near Wompatuck and there was frequent ocean effect snow falling while just 4 miles south near Queen Anne’s corner the skies were partly sunny.

    2. Do you really not have food for 3 days in your house? Just curious…the food store rushes always amaze me and I am not singling you out just in general.

      1. For me it’s buying food that you don’t have to cook in case the power goes…plus lots of snacks 🙂

      2. We shop by week. And three days can turn to five or much more if power goes out. I picked up a few canned things but more stuff we just need. Will cook a couple of meals that can be just reheated

        Gas stations are busy.

      3. For me yes. My wife has severe allergies, so her food requirements are special. Hard to keep around for awhile.

        Plus it usually a weekly stock up trip and we were due anyway.

    1. Yup, June 16th going down the tubes.

      Lets see … Thats a Tuesday, ok, I can spare 3 snow days, THATS IT !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I’m afraid Tues – Fri might be in jeopardy if the wet snow and high winds cause widespread power outages.

      1. Tom, after a possible early release tomorrow, I have a feeling the remainder of the week may be in jeopardy! There goes Feb vacation!

  324. Southern four counties of CT blizzard watch. Norther four counties winter storm watch. Whether under a blizzard watch or winter storm watch there is going to be a lot of snow.

  325. Hi all just woke up and I am catching up here wow. Long day yesterday and sounds like this next one might keep me going till at least Wednesday. Need to recover as I have a cold that’s getting worse and something else going on so I need to rest up today. I have a very important doctors appointment tomorrow in Quincy at 2:30 than I suspect right back to work should I cancel it. It’s a vital appointment but not sure what to do do we know a start time like is it early Monday evening or wee hrs of Tuesday. Thanks

  326. Will be interesting to see what the medcenter does down here. I’m sure tomorrow will be pretty much a normal day (we are open till 8pm). Tuesday…who knows. They may wait until the last minute or they may announce early. They’ve been burned on both ends.

    1. I suspect the governor and mayor getting together but probably won’t here anything till tomorrow as I’m suspecting a state of emergency and the way this forcast is going it would be the right call. People need to stay off the roads and let us professionals do our job as it’s very important . I’m just getting information now as I just woke up a little while ago. Left the house at 5:45am yesterday and got back around 10pm. If this is heavy snow with I’m hearing maybe 60mph winds if that is true we are in trouble. What time are the high tide cycles as if this comes in at the wrong time could be major structural damage like houses on the walls being ripped right of there foundation. I saw this in the perfect storm and I’ll never forget it. I was only six for the blizzard and it was are first winter in Marshfield but the snow and structural damage as you know was major. The perfect storm was like the blizzard regarding damage but obviously no snow. I am guessing Tuesday and Wednesday we will be in a state of emergency.

  327. Driveway and walkways melted nicely today. I got down to a thin skim of snow/ice last night and was worried about it sitting there and then the new snow coming on top…now it’s nice and clear. The back deck is a little worse but not in the sun but I’m working on it.

  328. Friend called from Stop & Shop. Had to wait forever to find a parking space and then no carts were available. Food Shopping Panic!

    2. I just don’t get it…even if people had no food you can easily go 2-3 days without it. Don’t people ever learn? Eggs, milk, and bread away!

      1. For some it’s having the comfort food in, etc. That way they don’t have to go out unless they have to. I remember the craziness and lack of certain items after the Blizzard of 78.

  329. I am already bring it on. Got food and battery powered radio should I lose power along with flashlights.

  331. Those amounts are based on 10:1 ratios. I was reading an article on WXedge by Meteorologist Kevin Arnone and he was saying rations could be 15:1 to 20:1.
    Those amounts showing a lot of areas 2 feet plus COULD be more if those ratios are realized.

  333. NWS headlines

    * MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
    * BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
    * 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS – LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
    * DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS – GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
    * SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

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