The Week Ahead (Special Edition)

722 Comments

1:03PM

Since I may post a few extra blog entries during the next few days, The Week Ahead post that appears every Sunday evening (usually) will be a touch early, since we have a very significant storm coming.

COMMENTARY…
I’ll keep this short and sweet. We all know the problems with so many sources of information and the whole media hype thing. You probably don’t need me to remind you what to ignore out there, just make sure you don’t get sucked into the hype vortex that will be spinning a lot faster than the winds of the upcoming storm. Model output of snowfall amounts on air: useless. Comparisons to the Great Blizzard of 1978: useless. If you want to compare the upcoming storm to anything, use one that it will somewhat resemble and will be fairly fresh in your memory unless you were not here. That would be February 2013. A carbon copy? No. But very similar set up and likely result.

SUMMARY…
Let’s break this down in segments.
Today (Sunday)… Arctic cold front passing by at midday has been producing some snow showers from southern NH to northeastern MA and a stray flurry may still visit the Boston area through early afternoon, otherwise just sun and passing clouds and a gusty wind today as colder air arrives. You’ll feel it later today and tonight.
Monday… Setting up the storm. High pressure builds to the north of New England across southeastern Canada and sets up a north to northeast wind, delivering plenty of cold air. A fairly small storm dropping southeastward from the Midwest through the Mid Atlantic will ignite a new storm offshore, south of New England.
Monday night through Tuesday night… The storm. Explosive development of low pressure and a rapid maturing of the system, tracking northward and likely doing a small loop just south or southeast of New England. That, with a high to the north, as the classic set up for the big snowstorm. There may be some ocean-effect snow showers that sneak into eastern coastal areas of MA and NH ahead of the storm’s precipitation during Monday afternoon, but expect the snow from the storm itself to overspread the region from south southeast to north northwest during Monday evening and night, continuing Tuesday, then pulling away from west southwest to east northeast later Tuesday night as the storm center completes its little loop and starts to move away and weaken. Its maximum intensity will be taking place as it is delivering its resultant snow and strong wind to southeastern New England. Another aspect of storms like this is lightning and thunder, and there will likely be some with this one. How much snow? I think we’ll be setting a general 18 to 28 inch snowfall across southeastern NH and most of eastern MA and RI with the exception being Cape Cod and the South Coast with 10 to 18 inches, except 6 to 12 inches on Nantucket. Another area of mostly 12 to 18 inches is expected for north central MA and southwestern NH, though the eastern slopes of the Worcester Hills may see greater than 18 inches. Drifting snow may reach several feet in some locations. Drifting is not only dependent on the wind speed but the wind direction and can be very variable. Keep this in mind if you plan to be out in the storm or when you start your snow removal after the storm. Wind from the northeast to north during the storm will likely max out on Tuesday at 15-35 MPH inland and 25-45 MPH in coastal areas with gusts as high as 55 MPH inland and 65 MPH along the coast, strongest over Cape Cod where even a few stronger gusts are possible. Some wind damage is likely in coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. East and north facing shores will also see minor to moderate coastal flooding at times of high tide. Areas most prone to flooding may see moderate to briefly major flooding. There will be some high swell and large waves along the shore during this event and shortly after it.
Wednesday… It’s over, the sun is back, but it is quite cold. Cleanup gets underway. Be safe!
Thursday… High pressure provides another nice but cold day. Get your cleanup done if you can!
Friday… Low pressure tracks from the Midwest through the Northeast and brings a chance of snow. Not likely a big storm but may have some significant impact, depending on track and timing.
Weekend… Very cold but likely dry weather as January ends and February begins.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sun and passing clouds. Brief snow flurry possible eastern MA early. Temperatures fall from the 30s to the 20s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 along the coast. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Ocean effect snow showers possible in eastern coastal areas by mid afternoon. Snow develops South Coast by late afternoon. Highs 15-20 interior MA and southern NH, 20s elsewhere. Wind NE 5-15 MPH increasing later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times. Blowing and drifting snow. Chance of lightning and thunder. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. For total storm accumulation expected, please see SUMMARY section above. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 25.

722 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Special Edition)”

  4. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    If you have a temperature of 15 degrees and a wind speed of 20 MPH, what is the estimated wind chill temperature?
    A. 3 degrees
    B. 0 degrees
    C. -2 degrees
    D. -5 degrees

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the fastest speed that a falling raindrop can hit you?
    A. 12 MPH
    B. 14 MPH
    C. 16 MPH
    D. 18 MPH
    Answers later today.

  7. Thanks TK !

    On the 12z EURO at 48 hrs ….. 990 mb pressure lies along the extreme south coast of New England. Meanwhile ….. Concord, NH is sitting around 1010 mb.

    20 mb pressure difference in maybe a 120 mile north-south distance.

    Impressive pressure gradient.

  9. I will be out Monday night and Tuesday morning. I’m an EMS supervisor, so I have no choice. People staying home will make our job easier. Stay safe everyone!

    2. Agree Tim as I do snow removal for a boston hospital . Stay off the roads we will be working from tomorrow morning till Wednesday and need the publics help. Only people who should be on the roads is emergency personal and snow removal operations and essential employees like hospital personal who don’t get work cancelled great post Tim .

      1. Sadly, as much sense as you both make, most people do not have the option to stay home unless their business tells them to. We have a new governor. I hope he shows the intelligence Patrick did two years ago should it be needed

        1. Vicki I honestly believe a state of emergency will be issued tomorrow at some time . If business people ignore that well shame on them. Maybe baker should be firm and go with a driving ban. Makes sense with all the info coming out.

  10. TK TK TK TK TK,

    I was told there is a “complicated” mathematical formula for computing wind chill. And then there is an easy way. Are both statements true?

  11. TK – Any chance the Friday system goes POOF! or well OTS due to the Monday/Tuesday storm draining any and all energy from any future storms for awhile? Even a moderate storm would have some decent impact.

    Am I somewhat correct that huge storms can do this to future ones that follow the same path?

    1. At 5 days away, anything is possible. It’s hard to get back to back biggies, at least within a week.

  16. Yesterday’s snowfall at Logan was quite impressive IMO = 5.1″ the biggest so far TO DATE! 😉

    Total 2014-15 Snowfall to date @ Logan = 10.6″

  17. Phew!! Leaving for Bermuda TOMMORROW morning 🙂 be back next Monday Feb 2nd, 11 are going 🙂 florida is getting booked fast, ya better hurry up 🙂 I’ll be thinking of everyone ekkkk thank u tk 🙂

    1. I’m just curious Charlie while your in charge of snow removal how you could be leaving with such a major storm coming just curious. Anyways have fun I’m jeolous.

  18. Winter Storm Impact Scale:
    Snow – HIGH
    Driving – HIGH
    School Closings – HIGH
    Power Outages – MEDIUM

    1. I would think that’s due to the snow being lighter and fluffier and not bringing down as many trees.

    2. If the snow was a heavy wet snow I would put that in the High. I don’t usually give a High impact in multiple cateogories on the impact scale for snow event.
      I don’t think power outages is a widespread problem across SNE like the other three on the winter storm impact scale. Best chances for outages I would say is eastern southern New England

    1. 1039 mb high ……. 6o mb difference. I’m concerned about the wind. The snow will be fun, but the wind is what has me worried. 14 years now in Marshfield, the eastern couple miles of town really takes the wind on the chin.

    1. Unless there is a problem at the substation or in some of the step down equipment. I kinda like losing power. I know that comes as a shock to folks here 🙂

  22. Looking at the track of this beast….
    It goes off the coast and cranks virtually over the Gulf stream, or
    at least warm eddies of it. Comes at us FROM WAY out in the ocean
    via Negative Tilt. This is an OCEAN MONSTER, LOADED with Atlantic/gulf
    Moisture. What a recipe for Deep Snows!!!!

    1. 100 % agree. It appears its all lined up.

      Some are comparing this to the storm from 2 years ago.

      Playing that game, there was that 5 inch/hr snowband that setup in CT on that storm.

      I wonder where that type of band sets up this go around ?

  23. T.K. I like the way you don’t feed into the hype. You tell it like it is. The Storm will be big, but we have seen storms like this in the past. A few hrs after the snow has stopped falling everything will be back to normal. NO NEED TO PANIC!!!!!

      2. I didn’t notice anyone doing that. I think a lot of people shop in Sunday and others who shop early week moved their day up. It was equally busy last week before the game. Maybe even more.

    2. If Marshfield and Scituate are back to normal a few hrs after the snow has stopped falling, I and all the residents here will be the happiest folks around. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I very much hope you end up being correct !!

    3. Hmmm…IF this storm is going to be as big as TK and the other mets are saying, IMHO it is going to take A LOT more than a few hours for things to get back to “normal”. I would say a good 24-36 hours especially for public transit for starters. Of course, it certainly won’t be days on end like in 1978.

        1. And if we get more snow (even a moderate amount) later in the week it will be really interesting.

          1. I actually plow snow. I have plowed in many storms of 20″+ the roads are clear a few hrs after the storm. People are out and about like normal. We got 30″ from Nemo, and the roads were bare 3 Hrs Later!! was not a big deal!!!!!

            2. After I got done I drove home To My house in NH Roads Were fine. This will be the same unless we have hurricane force winds and 5′ of snow.

              1. City and some “urban” suburban areas are a lot different. OS didn’t you have to wait quite a while for your street to be plowed out after a couple of storms?

            3. Our side road in framingham wasn’t plowed until next day Feb 9 2013. That was the case for many others.

            4. It isn’t just the roads. If power is out, it can be hard to find a place to get food, gas etc so clear roads help only so much.

    1. Thanks Weather Wiz! 😀

      French toast is going to be a very common breakfast come Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning. 😀

  28. If this storm pans out and goes till Wednesday am things will not be back to normal till Thursday at some point. As for anybody doing snow removal the main thing is just main roadways and the neighborhoods last.

  29. I think there could be reports of 30 inches and then when you factor in snow drifts you could get some as tall as 8 feet maybe even higher. I saw a lot of these after getting 30 inches with blizzard of 2013.

    1. If they haven’t since the 12Z runs, not likely Unless the 18Z runs blow them away and push stronger winds well inland. Who knows, that “could” happen
      I suppose, but probably not.

  34. Philip they actually extended the blizzard watch earlier to include Fairfield County in CT and include NYC area. To me it does not matter whether its a winter storm warning or blizzard warning were going to get a lot of snow.

  35. Tweet From Ryan Hanrahan with regards to 12z EURO
    Euro model ticks west a bit. If I had to nail down a jackpot zone it would by NYC up through NW CT to Berkshires. Normal caveats apply

    1. JJ…interesting. I wonder if he means that the Jackpot for WVIT viewing area or overall in New England?

  36. I’m looking forward to see if the Taunton NWS office has as it with the snow map a later later this afternoon.

    I cant imagine other shades of color wont be there later.

    By the way, kudos to them on the last storm. I think in a majority of places, if we put the actuals into their snowmaps, many of the amts verified.

  37. When does this storm ramp up on Monday for EMass? Will Monday school dismissals (2-3 pm) and evening commute be affected?

    2. I really doubt any early dismissals for Monday…only ocean effect snow showers are expected for the daylight hours.

  38. At home I normally use a desktop computer setup but I’m prepping for the worst by charging my laptop, netbook and tablets up to the max as well as backups I have for them. Should be good to go 🙂

  41. Thinking tomorrow is a normal day for most. Maybe affecting the pm commute but I have no idea on timing does anybody know?

  42. I wish we can get these heavy bands that produced 5 inches/hour during nemo. Northshore always misses on the heavy stuff. I have a feeling that southwest ct will be the jackspot, similar to nemo. I HOPEE we don’t get dry slotted when the storm stalls, that will be a bummer

          1. Exactly ! Not a ton accomplished today.

            My wife is so awesome, she just knows when one of these type storm’s are coming, I’m useless !! 🙂

  45. Geez. I’ve got this crazy feeling that the city sees 30inches. So much consistency in the models! Walking the dogs should be fun…

  46. Its not just the low thats deepens. As the high moves slowly by to our north, its strengthening. Both the low and the high seem to reach their respective strengths right around the same time. And such a quick pressure drop in the low over a small period of time. I just hope that the models have the wind correct and its not even stronger. The winds will already be very strong if the models are correct.

  47. Take my word for it, Boston won’t see 30 inches from this.

    Very few locations will reach 30.

  48. I said on the earlier blog I had a nightmare last night and the storm made a left hand turn into CT delivering a huge rainorama. When I woke up I was so happy to see blizzard watches and winter storm watches realized it was a bad drea.

  49. I dont think the low has moved 10 miles btwn hrs 45 and 51 on the NAM.

    Also, I think the NAM is doing a good job of showing that little area of enhanced precip just SW of Boston that always hangs in there with the NE wind, even when the big band of heavier synoptic snows have pushed northward.

  52. All four southern counties in CT including NYC now under blizzard warning.
    Just read the text 20-30 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

  56. 2 jackpot areas…

    1) A synoptic one associated with the interaction of the surface low and upper low in southwestern New England and NYC area.

    2) A combination synoptic and ocean moisture fetch one in eastern and southeastern MA into RI.

    There may be a shadow zone in part of eastern CT and in the CT River Valley. Also should be less further NW just from being away from the heaviest precip shield and with the absence of direct ocean influence.

    1. Tk does that include my area and yours Reading/woburn? What are the chances of us seeing 30 inches? I have never seen a 30 inch storm before so i hope we can get one!

      1. I have seen 30+ inches 3 times.
        February 6-7 1978: 44 inches.
        March 30-April 1 1997: 30 inches.
        I can’t remember the other one! LOL

        I’d say we have about a 1 in 5 shot at reaching 30 in the Reading/Woburn area.

        1. IIRC Worcester received 33″ for the 1997 storm. Hard to believe they received so much more than Boston (25.4″).

        2. Well 30 inches of powder will still stink but could be worse. Honestly I am more worried about Thursday-Friday.

    2. If I am not mistaken, NYC was the “jackpot” for SNE during the March 1888 Blizzard. I am hardly sure of that of course.

  59. Since i moved to the states in 2002, not a single storm i experienced 30 or more! But hmm alright ill remain optimistic and will take that 1 out 5. Thanks!

  61. I only experienced one 30 inch snowfall in my life and that was blizzard 2013
    The highest prior to that was 24 inches with blizzard of 2006

  62. From Southern New England Weather about 2 hours ago…

    “SREF Mean for Boston is 26″…Max of 38″..My goodness”

  65. 20-30 inches of snow projected by all 3 national weather service offices that issue watches and warnings for CT

  67. BREAKING NEWS:
    The snow amounts on the 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM are overdone!

    Oh wait, that’s nothing new at all. Cancel the “breaking news” part of that. 🙂

  68. From NWS

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 20 TO 30 INCHES…
    WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES.

    * TIMING…WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY…THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

    * WINDS…NORTH-NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 65 TO 75

    3. Just took a look at their weather (where the temps are usually forecast a little on the high side for obvious reasons) Most of the week will partly to mostly cloudy with high temps (according to them) in the low to mid 60s with rain showers at times.

  70. Strong language from Meteorologist Gil Simmons. He does not hype things so if he says this take notice.
    Get to where you need to be by 7PM Monday to ride this storm out for a couple of days. Given wind and snow amounts-recovery will be days

  72. I think everybody is now under the blizzard watch/warnings. My phone is lighting up like a Xmas tree.

      1. In fact, it’s done. Backed everything up to the west, lowered amounts a touch on the Cape.

  74. If anyone’s interested ……

    Go back to the October 23rd blog …….. Power Lunch

    Start reading about some of what happened with the storm and how it overacheived.

    Its something to think about, I think. Not that it was proved that the October storm overacheived because of the SST anomolies …. But, like back in October, they are still there.

    1. I loved one of the comments from someone on facebook responding to this post…

      “Eric, enough for a baby boom in October!”

  80. Ok ,If the storm is going to be this bad. It may take more than a few Hrs after the storm to get back to normal.

  82. Some Nemo stats:

    Lowest pressure = 968mb (200 miles off MA coast)
    Highest wind gust = 102mph (Nova Scotia)
    Max snowfall = 40″ (Hamden, CT)
    Highest Storm Surge = 4.2ft (Boston)
    Deaths = 18
    Power outages = 700,000

    1. Thanks AceMaster, awesome info !!

      I wonder if the high to the north was as comparable to the one in this event (1036 mb).

  84. I hope all you W.H.W enjoy your blizzard. You have waited long enough, but I DO NOT WANT TO READ ABOUT ANY ONE COMPLAINING ABOUT SHOVELING LOL.

  85. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 21m21 minutes ago
    I’ll be upping snowfall totals this evening. Likelihood of historic snowfall amounts is increasing. Top 5 storm for some.

    2. I wonder though is it hype for this one as they may be valid on this particular one cause all signs pointing towards a big hit and the public must be warned is my opinion.

  87. OK, what’s up with the GFS. Doesn’t seem to have boared the SNOW TRAIN.
    Amounts are DOWN some from earlier runs. Onto something OR 18Z blabber????

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    What I’m noticing is that the storm blows up, drops it’s load, weakens and moves away. Not that the storm won’t be INTENSE, but rather it will be SO INTENSE, that the intense portion doesn’t last too long, this reducing accumulations.

    Any thoughts?

    TK is this why you said Boston has no chance at 30 inches.

    It will be interesting to see IF the 0Z RUN looks the same

    On another note: HIGH CLOUDS from this system are VERY VISIBLE now.
    Kind of a confirmation that this thing is REAL. 😀

    3. Isn’t that what happened with the 2010 Xmass storm. we were suppose to get 2′ but needed up with less. NYC area got hit big. storm peaked to the south of us.

    4. That is part of the reason and also that I believe most of the models are once again overdoing the total precipitation.

  88. Per CNN…Mayor Bill de Blasio warns New Yorkers to “prepare for something worse” than what they have seen before. “We are facing most likely one of the largest snowstorms in the history of this city.”

    1. Well you know, they had to eventually schedule the Winter version of Sandy. Maybe they can sell tickets to the event. 😛

    1. I saw that dry slot on some other run.

      On another note, the tropical tidbits map like many others reports at 10:1 which seems low to start. I do not think 15:1 is unreasonable.

    2. That’s not really a dry slot feature. It’s banding, slightly over-forecast in that particular atmospheric simulation.

      1. Yes I know. Typed fast. In hurry. Had something to do.
        So we have s model sophisticsted enough
        To precisely locate bands 36 hours in advance.
        Pretty good. Lol

  90. I am waiting for school closings being announced tonight and then state and city shut downs followed by the T not running. I can only imagine the airport and train situation.

    1. No need for any cancelations around these parts tomorrow if it’s not in till 7pm but I still don’t know exact timing

      2. It will only be 7PM for a bunch of towns along a very thin line. It’ll be a process that takes a few hours from late afternoon to mid evening.

          1. Sometime after dark, probably after 7 for the steady stuff. But there may be ocean-effect snow showers before that.

              1. Should be able to but cannot rule out some flakes from the ocean before the main area arrives.

  92. Answer to Today’s Accuweather Trivia Quizzes.

    If you have a temperature of 15 degrees and a wind speed of 20 MPH, what is the estimated wind chill temperature?
    A. 3 degrees
    B. 0 degrees
    C. -2 degrees
    D. -5 degrees

    What is the fastest speed that a falling raindrop can hit you?
    A. 12 MPH
    B. 14 MPH
    C. 16 MPH
    D. 18 MPH

    The answers are C & D respectively.

    2. Cool ….thanks. My reasoning was scientific as always. Had nothing to do with the fact 18 is the #1 number

    1. That is not actually the storm. That is the storm that will spawn the new one. The new one has not started to develop yet.

  94. Bernie R. puts Worcester in the jackpot, thinks Boston will get a dry slot “dry tongued” at least I think that’s what he said. Just never heard that term before.

      2. With a NE wind, there’ll be something falling ….

        and by the time the heavy synoptic snow shuts off, with all the snow and wind, you might not know it did.

  95. It’s amazing to me that sometime Monday morning a line of towering cumulus clouds will develop a few hundred miles off the coast of NC and Virginia, the seeds of a tremendous storm system, the development and evolution of which will take place right before our eyes and we have front row seats for the spectacle.

      1. You will. We don’t need to be in the top amount area. It’s going to be a big snowstorm, with lots of wind, lots of blowing snow, and lots of drifting snow, and possibly some lightning and thunder thrown in for good measure.

        This is going to be one of the biggies, OS.

    3. GREAT post……gets one to slow down and appreciate the magnificence of nature. Thanks TK. Post of the day IMHO.

      1. Are you near the water, Keith? My brother-in-law is and his street in Scituate looks like the beach in a storm like this.

        1. I’m about 2 miles from Hingham harbor (NNE) but also up about 75 ft asl. No worries about the water here. If the winds really come in from the N-NNE it won’t be quite as bad as it could be.

  98. It will be kind of interesting to see what will take place with storm totals. If you look at either the text forecast Hingham is supposed to get 10-14 inches overnight and the WFO Box Storm totals has 18-24 through 7am Wednesday.

  99. Trust me snow lovers, there is not going to be a big difference between 18-24 and 24+, with the kind of wind we’re going to have. You’re about to get your biggie. Enjoy it for what it is. 🙂

    2. I agree.

      I think it’s interesting that the NWS feels the “worst” of the storm will be tomorrow night. I know that Tuesday is going to be just as wild.

  100. Ok, here’s my call…..

    Worcester Airport: 28.5″
    Logan: 17.2″

    I’m only moderately concerned about power loss interior because of the January cold freezing the roots in (except maybe on some back roads where the woods come right to the roads and the mossy leaf coverings help keep the frost out) So, spotty outages interior.

    Worcester higher than BOS because of better ratio and possibly better banding. Could I see Worc. going over 30″, yes but I’m not there yet.

    The shore and coastal plain, Tom, Hadi, O.S…. you guys got that one.

    1. You could be right. Logan at 17.2…going by that I should get about 21 or so…Logan (even though I’m only about 10-12 miles across the harbor) usually gets a few inches less than Hingham on these storms (powder and winds out of the N-NNE. We end up getting more wind directly off the water with that direction.

  101. Where’s Cantore going? You guys know? He’s probably going to be at the Beechwood in Worcester if I had to guess. Or maybe they’ll plant him at the Boston Common for this one.

          1. I was there for the first time last week. Great Sunday specials and the food was very good. I can see why a camera crew may want to camp out there during a good storm.. especially if the water is spraying over the seawall.

    4. He’s welcome here. Hey, I spent some time at LSC too.

      I wonder what TWC could afford per night of stay ?????

      1. Thats what makes me nervous.

        Everyone that I talked too the last couple days in Marshfield have been reminiscing about the experience the town had 2 years ago in February. I think there’s a bit of concern about this storm down here.

  104. Tk…the other blizzard we had years ago…it was windy and the snow was light and I remember that outisde of a few spots my roof was pretty devoid of any snow which was great. Similar setup you think?

        1. 1978 was like that. Most roofs and trees were snow-free except where the snow was wetter right along the coast.

    1. I’m concerned as well. This “dry slotting” has been showing up on guidance and the TV met radar simulations show this during the storm as well

    3. There will be lighter areas between bands but there is too much analysis based on one set of runs that show these. We don’t know where they will set up yet.

  107. I think everyone should not worry to much regarding the dry slot.

    Oh sure, it could happen. But not too many storms snow continuously heavy for hrs and hrs on end.

    Dry slot or weak bands of precip are part of an intense storm. They have them.

    But, intense storms also mix in bands that get you 3-4 inches per hr.

    Enjoy, enjoy, enjoy ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  108. NWS discussuon mentions dry alot
    MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW CONFIGURATION…WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA. FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING…WHERE IT PIVOTS AND LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL BE.

  111. Knowing there will be banding features is precisely why I first-guessed the snow the way I did. Broad area of 18-28. Don’t go too high. Those higher amounts will be in narrow bands.

    We can’t know that far in advance where these bands set up and the details of how they will move. It’s strictly guidance that shows them, but you have to treat the guidance like you always do. It’s a simulation, probably close to but not exactly what the reality will be.

    I think we basically had the same worries and discussions about the amounts and banding leading into the February 2013 storm. It’s just the way these things evolve. Some places will under-achieve, some will over-achieve. It’s just a storm and it will do what it will do.

  112. I told Mac about JRs,dry slot. He asked what that meant. I said a place where nothing happens for a while….his reply….”for a few days?”

  113. I’ve been hearing the sound of snowblowers (including ours) start during the day. Testing for tomorrow as no one used yesterday.

    1. The bad dream is plenty. I still don’t under stand Eric. he is free to interpret, but it seems unreasonable. I’ll probably eat crow tomorrow.

          1. Pretty robust amounts — highest of all the TV mets. Has the high end at 30″. I am no met so I can’t say he is dead wrong.

  117. Just going to sit back and wait to see what Blizzard Colbie brings. Our CBS Station in CT named the storm earlier today. The theme this year musician names. We had Blake yesterday and Ariana the day before Thanksgiving.

  119. One of our meteorologist here in CT Justin Goldstein was mentioning Possible thunder snow. I have never experienced thunder snow in my life so that would be cool if it happens.

    1. Boston and our area …… We’re all going to get a ton of snow.

      Within 5 or 10 miles of the coastline, I’m not sure there will be too many reliable snow measurements.

      Bare ground here, 4 ft snow drift there ….

      It should be fun.

      Be careful John, while your working this storm.

  122. If I had to guess?

    Logan: 21.3″
    Worcester: 26.1″

    I would not be worried about the “dry slot” yet. There’s no way we can accurately forecast that at this point, although it is certainly possible one exists. At the very least, there will be banding, which will lead to local variations in snow amounts. Someone gets 30″, maybe more. The 18z runs give me a little bit of pause, and we may have to consider backing down a little if the 0z runs trend lower also, but I don’t see any way to avoid a major storm.

      1. Love it !!

        Must have been overhead, the thunder is instantaneous.

        I’d have been running for cover, even if it was cloud to cloud.

    1. Possible but low probability. You’d have to get a region that likely combines a little orographic lift and ocean enhanced snow and has a banding feature pivot over them for an extended period of time.

  125. Kids are down so now onto weather.

    I wouldn’t worry about dry slotting. You can make up for it in a band that dumps 3-4 inches an hour.

              1. We have not watched. I need to see if we can on demand. But Sons of Liberty is on at 9:00 and I’m a big fan of the revolution and the folks who conceived of this country

  126. Seeing facebook posts from some Marshfield friends that some gas stations in town are out of regular unleaded.

    The lines at 5:30pm, when I was out, had cars sticking out onto Rte. 139.

  127. NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 2m2 minutes ago
    The Deadliest Storm of the Century is almost here:

    These people are irresponsible!!!

  129. O.S.

    Ok, here’s one…

    In the “A bird in the hand….” vein,

    What would you settle for right now if all risk would be taken off the table as a trade?

    1. I’m a tough customer for something like that. I WANT IT ALL!!!!!!!!!

      2 feet and NOT A FLAKE LESS! 😀

  130. Now on to important things. Dave Epstein said it might be a good idea to cook food that you can eat without heating (or that you can reheat on a grill, but I’m not going out in a blizzard to cook on my grill, that would just be silly.) I thought I’d make a quiche tomorrow to just keep in the fridge…. Want to come over?

    2. The majority of the region will be seeing dry snow that does not stick to trees and wires. The wind gusts will be very strong but not likely to take down many trees or branches since 1) the ground is frozen and support the trees better, and 2) the trees are leafless and present less resistance to the wind. Though power outages may occur in some areas and especially over Cape Cod where snow is wettest and winds strongest, we’re not likely be dealing with all that many outages.

    3. Love quiche. We have burgers and mac and cheese (crock pot which is surprisingly good) dogs and ribs. I bet we could have one heck of a party

      1. We really could. I love mac and cheese. I remember for the last big storm, which is going back over a year, I guess, my son went out to shovel and came back in for a beer, because, he couldn’t help but notice that there were cup holders, everywhere!! (The boy did go to school in New Orleans.) And then a neighbor came out with some cheese and crackers. And I had one of those pepperoni rolls, with the cheese. Good times, good times.

        1. The beer and cup holder part is hysterical but also a great story. Reminds me of life as it was back in the day. It is one reason I love power outages. No matter the weather, the neighborhood becomes a family

          I know this isn’t a food blog but quickly…. check brown eyed baker crock pot mac and cheese. I was sure it would be nasty but it was very easy and very good.

  134. Made it to the west coast. I have looked at nothing as far as climate and model data only going forecasts so can’t give you any detailed ideas.

    Can say in general someone is going to do better than anticipated and someone worse when it comes to SN.

    I would say based on prior similar storms I would be surprised that NYC ends up at 30″ as is NWS Upton avg accumulation.

    Record at Central Park is 26″ don’t think there is enough here to beat that by 15-20%.

    This storm is a classic CT Rvr Valley shadow and east facing Worcester hills jackpot.

      1. Maybe it will happen this time. Of all the weather I have seen in living in CT all my life tornado, blizzard, heat waves
        you name but never experienced thunder snow.

    1. Key i see on a lot of these model maps, 10:1 ratio. This is why i am somewhat in favor of the instantweathermaps amounts even though they seem high

    1. Nope and that track would ease people’s concerns about a dry slot.

      This run would be ideal if you want to see max snowfall close to our area.

  145. This storm is killing me! I wait all year for a storm like this but I’m flying to Puerto Rico tomorrow on business… Did all the prep today: snow blower, generator, extra gas, food, etc, but then I’m leaving the wife and kids to deal with the storm itself!
    Oh well, I’ll live vicariously through WHW and all your posts…
    Tom

    1. I have a feeling that warm sun and 80F + degree air will make that disappointment a little easier to handle.

      Safe travels, enjoy.

  147. Holy moly ……

    These may be the highest snow totals yet …

    Over 30 amts showing and raging in eastern New England.

    1. Its got what looks like the 5 in per hr in east central Mass, theres been no dry slot.

      This is going to show 40.

    1. Google Instant Weather Maps, its a website.

      Then, just call up the NAM and you can use the drop down boxes to choose a variety of maps.

  152. 12z NAM was better for my area. This run gives me 20 inches.
    The NAM does tend to over do thing but even if you cut the totals down some all of SNE will have double digit snowfall totals.

  153. Well, the 00z NAM also had a bit of an eastward jog last evening. Tonight’s wasnt as much.

    tonight’s put the eastern half of southern New England in 30 + inches of snow and a sliver of east-central Mass that has even more. It took some snow away from NYC, western CT (sorry JJ).

    I’d say if your truly looking for snow heaven, of all the models runs I have watched the last many days, THAT is the track you want to have happen.

    No dry slot, dry patch, whatever you want to call it.

    1. Just looked at the 00z NAM. Tweak it a bit. Take off a couple of inches from the back end add a few in the east facing ORH hills due to O lift and cut CT River Valley by a 3rd and you might have a sensible solution. At least as far I can tell on an iPhone and 2 beers.

  156. NYC forecast is a tough one, i dont envy mets down there. A few model runs it looks like they get in on the 2-3ft amounts, then only around a foot or so.

    1. AceMaster I saw watching the local stations in NYC one going for 24-36 inches another going for 12-24 inches and another
      going for 16-24 inches.
      The Blizzard warning text is going for 20-30 inches for not just NYC but all of CT.

    2. So true AceMaster, good luck to them.

      But again, last night’s o0z NAM did a somewhat similar thing, so who knows ….

  157. Even if its only a foot where I am that is still a good dumping of snow.
    Blizzard of 2013 the higher totals were suppose to be in eastern CT then we got into heavy bands and ended up with 30 inches.
    Its going to be interesting where those heavy bands set up shop.

  159. This goes to show us that snow numbers can be down than you get a couple of big ones and your snow totals are way up.

  160. Can you imagine if the Boston stations continue to include the NAM snow numbers in their weather presentations tonight, especially for Worcester and Boston …..

    1. Yes and no. NAM run is not bad if you account for its usual biases and a good Met will do that. 2.2 QPF from this storm on the NAM at Boston where it is only going to be 10:1 maybe 11:1. One of the misconceptions on this storm is high ratios. 10:1 coast. 12:1 most other locations. Mid – levels which are the key snow growth region are pretty warm. So reduce the NAM by 10-15% at Boston and you are 18-22″ not too absurd at all.

      1. Glad you brought that up. The running thing is people seem to think 15:1 or 20:1 ratios with this one. Nope.

      2. Great analysis, hopefully they are sharing similar reasoning.

        I think Harvey Leonard does this well, because when he shows a run, I know a lot of times he says, “this is just what one model is showing” and then he gets around to his map and follows with something to the effect of “here’s what I’m thinking”. Then I find he usually does a good job explaining his thinking.

  164. Channel 5 posted a snow map on Facebook of what the new GFS depicts which is 12 inches for Boston and 4 inches on the South Shore.

      1. They then followed it up with RPM model which showed 16 inches in Boston and 18 on the south shore. This is what TK pointed out earlier putting out info without much explanation. Good way to create confusion among the viewing audience.

  166. The first adjustment to the 18-28 will be to chop off 3 inches and make it 15-25 in the jackpot swath area, still a little less to the NW and of course toward the Cape.

    I’m starting to see 2 jackpot zones becoming most likely: Eastern slopes of Worcester Hills, and a few bands of ocean-enhanced snow as well as synoptic banding somewhere in eastern MA/NH. A lighter area will likely exist between these heavier zones.

    This is still up in the air. Won’t really know until it all starts to come together tomorrow evening, so the broad forecast ranges will continue.

    I don’t see a whole lot of over-25 amounts, but can’t rule out a few.

  168. Harvey has immediate Boston area / north and south shores and Worcester at 24+” and a “dry slot” in between at 18-24.”

    Pete shows a huge area of 16-24″ and then and area of 24-30″ southwest of Boston.

    Eric has a big area of 20-30″ from Boston to WSW of Boston and then 12-24″ to NW and SE of Boston.

    Everyone acknowledging banding / dry slots a no one sure where it’ll set up.

  169. TK I think you are about equivalent to Harvey minus 3.” The actual mathematical formula is TK = (HL-3). 🙂

  172. Final TV Met comment: There really are differences in the shape and sizes of their respective snow maps, and the forecasted snowfall differences among them, if you use the eyeball method, are in the half foot range.

    1. The down tweak to 15-25 in the main band for me was to account for the space between the bands. I think the biggest #’s will be in very isolated areas.

  174. Can’t sleep.

    NWS has highest totals near Worcester and then just south of Boston up to 1-95. Yes Alex I will take that please.

    1. Yes. I was thinking the last 24 hrs, maybe the models would back off on the intensity of the event, but nope !

  177. Good Morning Bloggers. Some random things about SnowZilla.

    1) Beginning to think snow may start a little earlier than originally forecast. Snowing in NYC now.
    2) Snow bands / dry slots might be a function of nowcasting. Saw a different band look this morning.
    3) Mayor of Boston to speak around 1 PM.
    4) One private school and one religious school closing announcement so far.
    5) The area for blizzard and storm warnings seems to have morphed a little.
    6) Many airlines canceling Tuesday flights for Logan, NYC, and Philly.

    Do your food shopping early!

    1. Its always a possibility, especially in winter, but I do feel for everyone whose airline plans are getting all messed up.

  179. 30+ in some locations is not out of the question.

    Charlie who lowered numbers, when you post stuff like that you should provide a source for your info.

  180. In regards to ratios Ryan Maue thinks more on the order of 15:1 maybe 18:1. I know jma and TK thought lower.

  182. Good Morning Everyone,

    Hope all are well!

    I’m pumped for this storm! Please stay safe out there. I’m doing a couple of errands today and then I’ll be on the couch for the storm. I unfortunately have the flu which has taken me down a few notches.

    Enjoy the day!
    TJ

    1. On the 00z GFS, the hr 27 to hr 42 time frame seems the consistent, worst of the wind.

      If 00z is 7pm, then that would suggest 10pm tonight to 1pm Tuesday afternoon.

  185. Good morning.

    Who said SNOWZILLA! Nice word for this one.

    Here is the latest NAM snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    NAM has been UNWAVERING in it’s delivery of MONSTER SNOWS.

    Here is the GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012606&time=PER&var=ASNOW&hour=072

    Not a lot of difference there, is there. BOTH are FULLY oN BOARD!!!

    CMC snow map, remember that’s assuming 10:1

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012600/gem_asnow_neus_12.png

    NAM 4KM snow map (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015012606/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

  186. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 40m40 minutes ago
    Accumulating snow arrives this afternoon & impacts late day commute. Historic Snowfall & Power Outages Possible Tue!

  188. NAM snow map ZOOMED

    http://i.imgur.com/VAz31YI.png

    Boston is 4th level purple = 33-36 inches
    Bulls EYE SW is 5th level purple = 36-39 inches

    KOWABUNGA!!!

    HOLY CRAP BATMAN.

    2 feet seems like a sure bet. WILL Boston reach a record snowfall???

    I’d say at least a 50-50 shot at it.

  190. One more thought, then I have to go to work.

    I was looking back at NEMO sat/radar loops last night.

    Dont get me wrong, NEMO had a strong southern stream low, loaded with moisture.

    The energy to bring it all together came in much further north, from the eastern Great Lakes.

    The energy, as you can see above in OS’ satellite loop, is scraping all the way to the Gulf Coast.

    Perhaps I’m wrong, but, I’d hypothesize that this event taps even a bit further into available Atlantic Moisture.

    It is true that the NEMO event had more Gulf of Mexico moisture influx, so maybe the 2 events will equal out.

    I just wonder if this year’s storm gets its feet even a bit more wet than NEMO did and really dumps it all in eastern New England ??????

    1. Tom that was my fear all along.

      This one is LOADED. We shall see. Whether it is not quite up to Nemo, or equals it or surpasses it, it’s going to be a WHOPPER!!!

      Enjoy and don’t lose power!!!

      1. We don’t want it to close off too soon. Just South of Block Island would be nice or there about. Seems to me that’s just about
        the spot the Blizzard of 78 took up residence. 😀

  193. SREF has snow ratio right around 10:1.
    I’ve noticed that this product tends to keep the ratios lower
    than actual. Perhaps I’m out to lunch.

    We shall see.

    1. I was reading somewhere that storms like this drawing in lots of moisture off the ocean tend to have lower ratios. I think 12:1 is the best we’ll do

  195. Along Coastal areas SNOW could break out as early as this morning.
    With COLD arctic air in place and the wind due to turn NE soon, this could set
    up OCEAN EFFECT SNOW BANDS from North Shore through Boston down to
    the South Shore. “Could” possibly pick up a couple of inches prior to the MAIN EVENT
    arriving.

    From NWS

    THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH…IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
    SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS…DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM…SO AREAS IN THE BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
    NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

  199. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 5m5 minutes ago
    Snow totals could put Boston, Worcester and Providence into a top 5 storm.

  200. Ok, what major news outlet will be the first to blame this on global warming?

    I personally blame it on mean reversion.

  201. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO
    CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANS
    REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.

    THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE
    SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF
    MAXIMUM OFFSHORE…AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE
    UPPER LOW.

  202. One last thing before I get ready for work and leave.

    It’s DAMN cold out. I’m sitting at 13.6 here.

    What will the Ratio be? What will it be?

    No matter, CRAP LOADS of SNOW. BUT, IF we can get that ratio to the 15:1
    area, there is a SHOT at BREAKING the ALL time single storm SNOWFALL record
    at the major reporting stations. There are considerable differences of opinion on just
    what that will be. We shall see.

    Since we’re getting a ton of snow no matter, I AM ROOTING for the record to fall. 😀

  203. Flurries are a flying in Marshfield.

    Nothing heavy or even steady at all, but I certainly can see the low stratus coming in off the ocean and its so cold, the top of the truck had a light coating on it.

  204. If your going to get this much snow lets break records.
    I don’t think we break records in CT. The record for Windsor Locks is 24.0 inches set back in January 2011
    The record for Bridgeport is 30.0 inches set back with the blizzard of 2013.

  205. Wow, compared to a snow map I saw 1 hr or so ago, the NWS really brought the big snow projections right down to the Cape Cod Canal and increased the amts on the Cape.

  206. Those winds gusts COULD be tropical storm force and I would not be surprised if a hurricane force wind gusts is recorded.
    Got to see where those heavy snow bands setup shop because it those areas that will get locally higher amounts than what is currently forecasted.

  208. I noticed from seeing some of the traffic cams on television that there are some flakes in the air in southern CT.
    Of course that is just the appetizer before the main course and it will come down hard Overnight into tomorrow afternoon.

  209. Good morning, 18-22 inches, all this other overblown crap is hogwash, could be a few isolated 24-30 but thatllbe closer to coast and north shore, Ik it’s a blog and every single possibility is on table but let’s keep it realistic, no ones gonna get 4ft, continue on with your normal scheduled hype, not talking tk 🙂 enjoy the storm 🙂

      1. Did your flight to Bermuda get canceled or were you just flat out lying about leaving this morning with 10 other people?

  210. Haven’t posted since before Xmas when significant other facing unexpected serious cancer surgery. Surgery went as well as it could. Cancer had spread but is very treatable with radiation no chemo. Thanks for all well wishes. Question – why is this storm constantly being referred to as “historic”. Ch 7 showing 16″- 24″ this morning. We seem to get one of those every winter don’t we? I don’t understand where the “historic” aspect is coming from – am I missing something?

    1. In the sense we hear it, “historic” is over used. One can argue that every storm is historic as it is part of our history. 😉

      1. Getting into the top 10 for boston would be historic IMO. Boston needs to get at least 18.3″ to crack that list. #1 (with some controversy) was the Presidents day storm 2003 with 27.6″ Forecast snow amounts for this storm are in the ballpark.

        1. Plus, historic means different things to different people. Some for the snow amounts, others for the winds and coastal flooding that can bring a lot of destruction.

    2. Best to you and your signficant other. GREAT to hear that cancer is treatable!! We have some amazing doctors and treatments in this area that only get better by the day. Prayers to you.

    3. Great to have you back posting again M.L.! Also, very pleased to hear that your significant other’s treatment is working out for her!!!

  215. Tk when will it start around here? Would love to garage the cars before snow builds on them so wondering when that might be. Worse case for me would around 5:30 tonight but hoping an hour or so sooner. Thanks.

  216. Hi all, two questions, first one, hate to look ahead, how much more potentially on thurs night? and two schools closed until at least thurs? thoughts?

  217. JR had sweet spot down around Franklin and surrounding area much like 1978. I seem to recall TK saying the same yesterday but apologize if I remember incorrectly.

    Also he did not have power problems listed too far away from coast with winds in interior 35-45. He had scattered (may be wrong word but I think close enough) along south shore and widespread on cape.

  218. We really need a radar to be set up around 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC.

    Can someone get on that please ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. LOL ….. talk about focus ………. in 10 minutes, students return from being off cluster (where they currently are in music class, art class, etc). I’m going to have to focus on math for 90 minutes, not the weather. 🙂 🙂

  219. With the wind gusts its not going to be matter if its a foot of snow or two feet. Travel is going to be horrible tonight and tomorrow and should not be done unless you absolutely have to.
    Late week looks like 1-3 2-4 weak system.

  221. Low stratus have completely taken over the sky. A light mist of flurries continues to fall.

    I cannot any longer see the mid or high level cloudiness.

  222. 00Z euro had this thing closing off and stalling off the NJ coast, not as ideal as OS mentioned earlier about stalling just south of Block Island. The euro continues to deliver the jackpot to coastal NJ, NYC, and western CT. Seems to be an outlier for now.

  223. This is kind of like the Patriots….both the Pats and the winter were written off as failures and ta dah!!!!!

  224. OCEAN SNOW beginning to show up on RADAR as predicted by NWS.
    (Of course that possibility was mentioned and discussed here yesterday!)

    Way AWESOME!

    On top of that, those echoes to the South are expanding and getting more
    intense already.

    Norton, I’m ASCARED!!!!

  225. Looks like that snow deficit is about to disappear. Two feet of snow from this would put Logan within a stone’s throw of the average for a season. Enjoy the storm all, wish I could be home for it since it looks like the Charlie hole area could be a jackpot zone!

  227. Ch5 snowfall map seems to make the most sense to me especially for Central Mass. Will be higher ratios there w/o the ocean influence.

    1. Perhaps, but don’t forget that coastal areas “may” actually
      see “OCEAN ENHANCEMENT”, mitigating any ratio differences.

  228. Nice batch of ocean snow moving in on South Shore, say around Weymouth, Hingham, Rocklan, Hanson areas.

    NOTHING here at the moment. 😀

    1. A steady (for the most part) very light snow here in Norwell (at work). A very dim disc of the sun still visible.

  232. I hate this waiting game for this SNOWORAMA.
    The air is so dry up where I am even though there is snow on the radar its not reaching the ground where I am.

  236. SNOWMAGGEDON
    HOLY CRAP BATMAN, Can it possibly SNOW this much?

    Robin, I’m afraid snow. Fire up the batmobile, We’re outta here!!!

  237. Anyone who doesn’t subscribe to the belief that “it could never happen here” or doesn’t appreciate the fact that we are one natural or man-made disaster away from total anarchy and societal breakdown should have been at the Mobil with me this morning. A routine fill up proved to be in interesting case of human fear and how people react. Huge lines for gas…people beeping, flipping each other off…yelling, cursing. The one guy in a new BMW who had 8 five gallon gas cans he was filling up. You would have thought zombies were down the road headed that way…and this was in the rich and well educated city of Lexington..HA.

  242. Will see what the rest of the 12z runs say but Upton, NY may have to adjust and go back to the 24-36 inches they forecasted late yesterday afternoon before dropping it to 18-24 inches earlier today.

  245. You get that amount of snow the latest run of the NAM is showing that will take a couple days to get back to normal.
    The link posted just shows the forecasted amount of snow. You add wind gusts to that a lot of blowing and drifting of snow and you could get some pretty big snow banks.

  246. Let’s all sit back and enjoy. Nothing we can do will change what’s coming so make the best of it. Look out for each other. Looks out for your pets.

  249. I will say this for the blizzard of 2013 the NAM was projecting big time snowfall amounts for CT on the 12z run the day that blizzard started. I lauged and said not going to happen. Well it was only off by 4 5 inches. Lets see what happens this time.

  252. I have no idea which model is best depicting snowfall amounts and this point. Thoughts?

    Also, DOES IT REALLY MATTER AT THIS POINT?! AHHHHH!!!!!!

  254. Snow Amounts don’t really matter at this point.
    We’re pretty much looking at 2 feet virtually everywhere.
    Whether it’s 24 inches, 26 inches, 28 inches, 30 inches, 36 inches, does it really
    matter? A shitload of snow, is a shitload of snow.

    Just the final amount to be determined.

    1. I was telling Hadi that storms like this with the wind make drifts I can jump into from a first floor roof without so much as suffering a hang nail.

  256. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m7 minutes ago
    Kind of glad to see ECMWF corrected snow forecasts working out well. The King seems to be back again

    1. And for hours on end.

      I’m really concerned.

      Have those winds for a few hrs, ok, things wont be too bad.

      But, that shows gusts to 50-60 mph over a 12 hr period.

      Meanwhile, in SE Mass, the trees are probably going to be getting plastered and weighted down by snow.

      The worst possible combination.

      1. Marshfield is already 30F and the Cape is in the low 30s.

        True, they’ll drop back given the dewpoint depressions, but, I’m thinking in these spots it will be 28-34F the majority of the storm. I cant see us getting a powdery snow.

  267. Lots of meetings this morning with managment here at the bank to determine a game plan. I will busy for the day changing telephone greeting and such to notify our customers of our plans. It isn’t easy being the recording voice of the bank. 🙂

    1. Good luck with those plans. I know the first thing I did here was to talk to my 6th grade math colleagues and come up with alternate dates for already scheduled tests later this week and next week. We have new plans if we lose 1 day and another plan, if we lose 2 days. Hopefully, we wont need plan C, but I’m not optimistic.

  268. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago
    WINDS: Communities near coast should expect wind gusts 50-80mph. Outages and damage possible midnight tonight thru midday tomorrow.

  269. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago
    Wow GFS STILL trying to spare NYC ( relatively speaking) if wrong will be second major loss to Euro in 4 days in nations big pop area

    WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 3m3 minutes ago
    Newest RPM Model run for #Juno is much less bullish for #NYC with 2-4″… Still a big storm for New England #Noisy

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8SWL1yCMAIj257.png

  270. I don’t agree with the 12z GFS.

    I’ve seen it in a few discussions that the GFS is not doing a great job of recognizing the strength of the cut off low at 500mb and is allowing the surface low to be too progressive.

    I think the low will be tucked a little further SW than it is showing during the max intensity of the storm.

    1. All that matters is everything is on track for our us in SNE. NYC is a really tough call, not one I would want to be making as a met

    2. AGREED. Even so, the GFS cranks out the SNOW.

      That will be the difference whether NYC gets substantial Snow or no.

  271. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago
    Huge test. ECMWF upgraded their snow forecast tools. GFS just got upgrade. Both centers have to look at this as challenge

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago
    Believe the NAM is better than the GFS if NAM agrees with Euro within 24 hours of storm

  275. Another reason to be suspicious of the GFS snow projections, I think …. is to see how much snow it thinks Maine is going to receive.

    Maine, in my opinion, is way overdone. That’s not to say that Maine wont get anything. I just don’t think that much.

  276. Sometimes its said …. what could go wrong at the last minute …

    My one, what could go wrong thought is ….

    There’s some kind of snow gradient that causes northeasternmost Mass to see less snow than projected.

    If the low ends up being tucked somewhere south of Block Island, as opposed to a bit further east near the benchmark, then I could see the northeastward extent of the precip shield struggling to make progress in that direction.

    I’m not implying Gloucester or Beverley or Marblehead are going to get 4 inches or something, but, it wouldn’t shock me if that little corner of Mass gets something like 8-12 inches. They also, for some reason, don’t do as well with ocean enhancement, compared to south and southwest of Boston.

    Lunch time. 🙂

      1. Not sticking to roads yet. I got to say some similarities to this morning to the morning of blizzard of 2013. First
        a steady light snow that got started toward late morning and a 12z NAM run that spit out high snow totals like it
        did on the 12z NAM run the morning of the blizzard of 2013. Could I be looking at another 30 inches of snow with
        this blizzard???

  278. Not to be looking ahead too far but… from the NWS

    ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
    FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
    HOURS…BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY ENDS
    UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. A
    TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
    UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

  279. Radar shows synoptic SNOW area RAPIDLY expanding South of us and ON THE MOVE! When it gets going it’s going to be serious pretty quickly. This is NOT
    going to be a mamby pamby snow that only ever so slowing increases in intensity.

  280. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 46s47 seconds ago
    Ocean Effect Flurries breaking out & light snow from storm already falling in CT & RI

  282. Every model will miss something.

    Don’t ignore the RGEM Can meso, the RPM, and somewhat the GFS.

  283. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 5m5 minutes ago
    Tonight, all night long snow fall rates will vary from 1 to 3″ per hour! #wcvb

    2. It tilts. You would think its it’s miss but it gets captured. If someone didn’t know they would assume that.

  289. Arrived back in Boston from my trip up north to see my ailing mother. Have not followed the news or weather much. What can we expect in Boston in terms of snow: 1 foot? 2 feet? Wind? I’m reading different scenarios as there appears to be less model consensus. NYC less snow than initially forecast? Boston perhaps more?

      1. Thank you for asking. Hanging in there. Labored breathing, however, which suggests respiratory distress. Lung complications are often the source of major trouble for the elderly with severe pancreatitis. All my siblings were there this weekend, including of course my sister who lives near the hospital. Hopefully, my Mom will pull through this week and we’ll visit again next weekend. Her chance of survival is estimated by docs at between 50-60%, which gives her a fighting chance.

        I told her about the expected storm. She knows I’m a weather freak. She smiled through her O2 mask. She is mentally alert.

  291. Can someone answer this…I was told this would be powerdy light snow for my area, but my Mom is telling me she heard heavy wet snow inside I-95…who is right?

  300. HM tweet

    @HenryMargusity: Euro continues to show big snows in the big Apple. New England is the place where the blizzard will hit the hardest.

  304. Ryan Maue Tweet and he’s smart as hell

    @RyanMaue: My intuition & research experience w/this type of storm & ECMWF stall/loop track at 974 mb –> mesoscale banding.
    50″ of snow easy somewhere

  310. Is it me or has the projected pressures on this low dropped some today ?

    Don’t recall the EURO being under 980 mb. Now, I’m seeing 970s for pressure.

  311. JMA, if you’re out there. You mentioned yesterday ratios won’t be as high as we think. You were saying 10:1 for most and 12:1 at best. What was the reasoning? It is downright cold out there and expected to be in the low – mid 20’s throughout. That should equate to ratios more like 15:1.

      1. Not based on what I am seeing. He mentioned mid level warmth but when I run the numbers I don’t see much warmth anywhere. I Could be missing something

        1. I dont see warmth in other levels either. While i dont think we see 20:1 ratios, 15:1 isnt unreasonable.

  312. Tweet from Eric

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago

    Snow map speaks for itself. We all get buried. I won’t be shocked if a town or two hits 40″ before Wed AM

      1. Its just the latest BZ snowmap on its site, has the 20-30″ bullseye in the same place it was last night

  313. Its getting dark out. The snow is literally on our door step. I think we’re socked in by 4pm the latest. I may need to make arrangements to leave work early.

  314. Just saw graphic on TWC showing EURO shows 2 feet plus for a lot of SNE including a lot of CT. I know what model I am rooting for.

  315. With the blizzard of 2013 NYC had 12.4 inches of snow while many parts of SNE had 2 feet plus. Wonder if were looking at same thing for blizzard of 2015.

    1. Hell yea!! Waiting for this snow is like waiting for the kickoff of the super bowl, so much anticipation!

  317. 18z NAM is down to 974 mb. And its the speed with which the pressure drops that is impressive.

    In response, it has a huge contour of 70mph wind gusts, I think I saw a small 80mph contour.

    I know not to take it verbatim, but the trend today seems to be an even slightly more intense low, the projected winds seem even a bit stronger, I am very concerned for the coastline.

  318. Everyone gone from work. I’m still stuck here. Problems with auto call lists.
    Almost resolved. Real snow hasn’t quite started here, but due any second

    1. Spitting here in Marshfield. Radar makes it look like steadier, light snow is on our doorstep.

      Hope the auto call lists work finishes soon !

  319. GOOD AFTERNOON ALL!

    I’m now with you (other than shoveling and snowblowing shifts) for the duration of the storm.

    I have posted a new blog entry with just a forecast update basically with no changes, only tweaks. No real discussion there. We can get to that in the comments section. I’ll be updating frequently through Wednesday morning.

    See you on the next post!

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