Storm Update (Monday 3:17PM)

178 Comments

Hi all! I will now commence posting new blog entries every few to several hours through the storm with the latest info here. I will also be updating the Facebook page for those who have access to that.

Many of the updates will just have forecast information or short summaries of what is going on. If I have time, I’ll throw together a full discussion which includes the storm threat for later this week. For now, it’s important that we focus on this one.

As far as the actual weather discussion goes, there are not a whole lot of changes, only a few minor tweaks that for now allow me to just post a forecast.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 20 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times. Blowing and drifting snow. Chance of lightning and thunder. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 20 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 25.

178 thoughts on “Storm Update (Monday 3:17PM)”

  4. Traffic not bad on back roads from Milford through Holliston and into Framingham. Light coating of snow and Framingham is pre-treating roads

    Thank you TK

    Everyone be safe.

  6. Still Stuck here. Earlier arranged for enough credits to make the robo calls.
    When I went to submit a call request, I got an error, not enough credits. DAMN!
    On hold now.

    Then I get a call from my wife. Our House Insurance company is dropping us after 30
    years because we don’t have our car insurance with them. This should be ILLEGAL!
    I’ll be calling the Insurance COMMISSION)()(!@(#*!)@#(!@#*(

    OUTRAGEOUS!!!!!!!!!

  10. That bad that’s been sitting all day over LI has been amazing. The geography has to have something to do with it as it’s mirrored the shape almost perfectly.

  12. JayGlazer
    @JayGlazer

    Breaking news: sources tell @FOXSports the NFL has zeroed in on a locker room attendant w Patriots who allegedly took balls from officials locker room to another area on way to field. Sources say they have interviewed him and additionally have video. Still gauging if any wrong doing occurred with him but he is strong person of interest

    2. Isn’t that normal procedure for an attendant to bring the balls from the officials locker room to the field? The officials don’t take them themselves. Glazer should stick to doing Subway commercials…

  15. HI all!

    I haven’t looked much at Friday yet but my first instinct is moderate snowfall. Many possibilities either one way or the other with that one.

    Ok it’s pretty clear the bowling ball is coming down the lane and not going in the gutter, and we’re the pins. So we’ll just have to basically nowcast and short into the future cast as we go. There will be some localized mesoscale features that play with snow amounts in some areas. Only the short range models are of any use, depending on how they perform. Last storm like this (2013) they did a decent job. Let’s hope they have a good work ethic this time.

    But if the 18z NAM is right, we may have to rename the “Charlie Hole” to “Mount Charlie”!! 😉

  16. 3pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Logan and Marshfield : both 28 mph

    Martha’s Vineyard : 31 mph

    Nantucket and Block Island : 33 mph

    1. Moderate as in greater than 3 inches. Major storm is over 6.
      Micro 0-1. Minor 1-3. Moderate 3-6. Major 6-12. Mega 12-18. Massive 18+. 😀
      I made up that M-scale when I was about 12 years old. 😀

  19. I sure hope next week is storm free…but I doubt it. I am more bummed about Friday snow. I will be totally tired and burned out from Wednesday cleaning.

    1. Thank you Mark and good to see you hear. That is an awesome graphic. Can you call a storm forming magnificent? Not sure what the term but wow.

    1. Simple synoptic banding. Doesn’t mean that it will be there. That is just where that run of atmospheric simulation has it. 🙂

  27. Catching up so may have missed someone already posting this but NH shut down for the day tomorrow. I do not ever recall that happening.

  30. Updated 4:12 pm discussion on Taunton’s NWS site.

    Potential for 70-80 mph wind gusts on Cape, Coastal SE Mass, maybe even Cape Ann.

    I’ve lived in Marshfield 14 years, in that time, I havent seen the local airport report a hurricane force wind gust. I think that may happen this time.

        1. 56 mph on 12/9/2014 was the record gust at the airport since they have been officially keeping records (October 2006).

  32. I just went to TWC’s web page for the first time in a couple years.
    My goodness.

    The page is more tabloid-looking than the front page of the National Enquirer. What are we doing to weather?

  33. There will be some pleasant surprises with this storm which included but are not limited to…

    -Less coastal flooding that many would expect.
    -Less wind damage than many feel will occur.
    -Not too many snow amounts that will exceed the 2013 storm, especially northwest of Boston.
    -Not even close to the impact of the Blizzard of 1978.
    -Lack of power outages (there will be some).

  35. Thanks TK! I like that you are feel the impact will not be as a lot are predicting. I can do without losing power!

    1. It will vary, more in some areas, the same in some, less in others. But overall, it won’t be as severe as predicted.

      Still… a big, big, memorable storm.

  37. TK, what do you think for NYC, just out of curiosity? The NWS still has 18-24″ for them but I think that’s way overdone. Looks more like 10-14″ to me, with some models showing less.

  42. I wonder who Governor Malloy is getting his info from. He is saying in his presser 2-3 feet of snow here in CT and 5 inch an hour snowfall rates for a two hour period. None of our tv mets here are saying that.

  44. Make no mistake. Even though I think some impacts will be less than the levels being forecast, they still will be VERY significant.

  45. WELL IN OTHER NEWS, THE NFL REPORTEDLY HAS A DEFLATE-GATE PERSON OF INTEREST, AN EQUIPMENT MANAGER, IN THEIR GUN SITES. NOT SURE OF THE ACCURACY OF THIS REPORT, BUT IT’S OUT THERE.

    1. This storm has thankfully provided a nice break from that story, for me anyways.

      If the NFL can prove anything, whether its with this development, or by any other means, I think the discipline thrown at the Pats will be huge, not because of the original issue, but because of the press conferences by them denying it.

      2. The nfl is silent because they can’t prove anything…they haven’t even spoken or reached out to the Pats. They are pushing this out until after the Super Bowl because no one will care weeks later. If they have a ball boy now it someone they are throwing under the rug to have closure. Tons of videos online prove a football inflated indoors exposed to a 20 degree drop and rain will lower a football as low as 1.9 psi. Much to do about nothing.

    2. So they say……keep it alive but give no real information,,,,except of course to leave the refs blameless…..which is nonsense and didn’t the refs handle the balls between every play….

  46. There have been two nearly stationary snow bands – one east/west band pummeling LI and NYC and another one across central NY State of all places. What is going on ? Coastal front on LI? Lake effect playing a factor in central NY?

  49. 5pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Logan : 29 mph

    Marshfield : 33 mph

    Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard : 32 mph

    Block Island : 35 mph

  50. Mike Wankum was reading something re : flooding.

    (I think he said it was from the NWS, but please dont hold me to that).

    It said something to the effect that “they” would not be surprised if a new inlet is opened up along the coastline. I know he mentioned a couple spots where they thought it was a possibility, but this was around a half an hour ago, so, I’ve forgotten where it specifically was. My kids have taken over the TV. Bye bye storm coverage. 🙂 🙂

    1. Found it.

      4th paragraph under tides/ coastal flooding in afternoon NWS discussion (towards the way bottom).

  52. Watching those bands rotate in from the east and seeing where there going to setup shop here in CT.
    One model that our CBS station here in CT showed 32 inches for Waterbury close to where I live and over 3 feet for central parts of the state.

      1. Hi Mark…. Bruce Deprest and Mark Dixon did not say what model that was on the futurecast. If those amounts
        happen and I think there over done but lets say they do were going to be digging out for days here in CT.
        I got moderate snow in Watertown. What is it doing there Coventry.

        1. I’m actually still at work in Manchester but leaving shortly. Snowing light to moderate with about 1″ on the ground so far.

  54. Public transport shut down at 11:00 in NY. That’s basically shutting down city. I didn’t know CT closed. Good for them

  58. MBTA will shut down at midnight until further notice so no guarantee it will resume at any time tomorrow.

    Boston Public Schools closed tomorrow and Wednesday. It will be interesting if they will be closed for Thursday as well. Back in 1978 they were closed 2-3 WEEKS!

    Just curious…have other schools made closure plans beyond tomorrow? Tom?

    1. Phillip, just closed thru Tuesday.

      However, FBMS is the town’s shelter and has been designated again as that, for tomorrow.

      I assume more school days after tomorrow will be cancelled.

      Whether its a) needing time to clean roads of whatever the ocean washes in to Brant Rock, Green Harbor or Humarock so that busses can get through, b) clearing all the side walks on Rte 139 in particular, c) or clearing roads of possible down branches/tree limbs, I assume our town will need more than just Tuesday to recover.

      1. Thanks Tom. I suspect most towns in eastern sections will close Wednesday as well. Of course, any towns that end up in any “Charlie Holes” could leave some kids with only ONE snow day this week. 😉

  60. http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrBT8..zcZUCfUAfBPBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTByMG04Z2o2BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–/RV=2/RE=1422343742/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.ndbc.noaa.gov%2fmaps%2fNortheast.shtml/RK=0/RS=pnWkpOOkO8ZTYT40.lNHID6Xw80-

    Some of the buoys on here dont have any data.

    But buoy 44008, which is 54 nautical miles SE of Nantucket is working.

    Wind is ramping up.

    A recent gust at 5:50 pm to 38 kts. This is a buoy I’ll be watching the next several hrs.

      1. link works fine if you highlight everything and right click and then open in a new tab (or window)

  61. I heard that anyone who violates the travel ban receives a $500 fine AND jail time.

    Frankly, I can’t imagine anyone wanting to go out joyriding in the height of this storm.

  62. Eric thinks Boston falls just shy of the record 27.5″ (Feb. 17-18, 2003) and NYC does as well. Of course if Boston gets into one of those heavy bands tomorrow, then all bets are off.

    1. Don’t get me started about that “measurement” issue for that President’s Day Storm. The Bizzard of ’78 will ALWAYS be the one to beat AFAIC! 😀

      1. Agreed.

        Of course the President’s Day storm measured more snow. It was a bizarre storm that had a ton of snow and not a great deal of wind to make measuring easier and likely more accurate.

        And then there’s a storm like the blizzard of 78. Good luck measuring snow in that. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. was just down in Hingham Square and it seemed be a little heavier…wind is starting to blow it around too.

    1. CT’s version of the debacle that is channel 5 in Boston. Seems they are using the same methods of showing max model outputs

    2. Mark that is exactly what I saw.
      I did like what Bruce Deprest said and I hope were listening. He said this a worst case scenario.
      He and Mark Dixon are forecasted 2 to 3 feet.

  68. I think Boston totals will be around 23 inches. Just a hunch. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if a town close by – Westwood; Medfield; Dover – has over 30 inches, with Attleboro and Providence being the jackpot at 32 inches. Yes, Charlie, that’s you.

    Wind will be an issue. Not like `78, of course. But, I do think there are some serious coastline issues with this storm. Cape Cod will get hammered (Outer Cape, especially). Not so much by snow (there will be some snow, but also lots of rain), but by high winds and strong gale force gusts. Erosion and property damage.

  72. Hello, Been busy since I arrived at home. Wife and I made dinner together. It was nice.

    We watched Eric and Barry at the 6PM broadcast. Great job by them.

    What I am concerned about is the WIND. Howling pretty good already and we’re NO where near the peak of the storm.

    Snow intensity not spectacular at this point, but it looks nice. Looks worse with the wind. Vis about a mile or so, perhaps a tad under. Hard to tell from my location.

    GFS snows down some for the area.

  76. I have created a mini-me. Seven yr old Grandson just came flying Into the room announcing he saw the lights flicker TWICE, got the flashlight and sat in the chair waiting excitedly for power to go out

  80. Going to catch up on comments on this post then re-post. Keeping the comments down will help people who load their site on the phone. And the best way to do that will be to post new blogs so people can comment away. 🙂

    I broadbrushed 20-30 last update.
    Next one will take it to 18-25 with locally heavier, basically 25+ in strips from eastern MA coast north of Cape Cod Canal and down to northern RI and a possible second area in the eastern slopes of the central MA hills from Worcester southward. Taking the top edge off the northwest side as I think this thing will be tightly wrapped.

    I do not think anyone hits 36 inches in this one, but can’t wipe the chance out completely.

      1. 1) Tremendous push of dry air that is going to try to eat away the northern edge of the storm for an extra hour or two (though it will be overcome).
        2) Very rapid deepening may actually pull the core of the heaviest precipitation a little closer to the storm center.
        3) Don’t think it snows as long as Euro and a few other models have.
        4) Banding means lighter zones between the intense bands.

        These are all minor by themselves but combine to prevent some of the biggest totals. Again, there will be spots that do indeed get a bigger total.

        There is a chance the low center actually ends up a shade further east, believe it or not because the low that went by here on Saturday weakened faster than projected by computer guidance. The result is a flow that is displaced slightly east and a trough that tilts ever so slightly less toward the negative. May only be a 25 mile difference in storm track, but it will have an impact. These are just some of the little details I try to work out after the opening broadbrush.

        1. OK, thanks. Fair enough.
          HRRR seems to want to take it more East, but at the same time UNLOAD on Eastern MA. 😀 😀
          Screwing Western sections.

          1. That may be the idea.
            Short range models were decent with the 2013 storm and this one is not all that different, so we’ll see.

  82. Buoy 44008, which is 54 Nautical miles SE of Nantucket

    4:50 pm ob : max gust of 33 kts

    5:50 pm ob : max gust of 38.9 kts

    6:50 pm ob : max gust of 42.7 kts ………….. current wave height : 12.5 ft.

  84. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 4m4 minutes ago
    The wind core is pretty huge, so some gusts will penetrate inland in southern/eastern CT, RI, SE MA…more widely scattered farther north

  85. 7pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Logan : 37 mph

    Marshfield : 38 mph

    Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard : 36 mph

    Block Island : 38 mph

    1. Interesting that Logan is as high as Block Island and the Vineyard.
      That tells me that the wind field is HUGE! When it gets up nearing and surpassing 70 MPH, Logan may as well. Will be interesting to follow.

      Tom. THANK YOU for the wind info. Much appreciated.

      1. My pleasure.

        If I’m not driving everyone crazy with the wind gusts, I will happily post them, by the hour, as often as I can.

  86. NWS Upton, NY STILL BULLISH on BIG SNOWs as of 4:32PM update.
    I am curious to see IF they change their tune. Relying heavily on the NAM. 😀

  89. The early returns might suggest the last two 00z NAM runs captured the ever so slightly further eastward scenario of low pressure, with the biggest impact being a lot less snow in NYC.

    Of course, its early and perhaps things could change.

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