Storm Update (Tuesday 3:20AM)

204 Comments

Sorry all. Took a few hours off. Verified suspicions of tighter storm with eastward trend overall. Total accumulations being adjusted slightly to include a little less to the west and a little more for Cape Cod. Believe the highest totals will be in eastern MA.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Snow, heavy at times, especially coastal NH through eastern and southern MA and southward through RI. Some other heavier bands push further west. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 13-20 northwest, 20-30 further southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW MUCH OF EASTERN MA, 10-18 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS CAPE COD, 6-12 INCHES NANTUCKET.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

204 thoughts on “Storm Update (Tuesday 3:20AM)”

  1. TK, I want to thank you for the hard and meticulous work. Your accuracy … simply amazing this winter. Now, is there any way you could cut these amounts in half?

  5. Went to bed at 1:00 with maybe 3.5″. Just got up to, well, go to the bathroom…

    Can’t even see out the window. Looks like that band has been sitting on top of here for a while. Going to measure..

  9. Amazes me how the computer models do pick up on the snow bands …

    Eastern CT, up thru Worcester and into Merrimack Valley has a great snow band !!

    Slightest bit of sleet mixed in here OR this is what snow hitting the window sounds like given the wind. 🙂

    1. Those towns going down 290 and 395 like Auburn, Oxford, Millbury, right up to Worcester are just getting hammered. Real high ratio stuff Tom. As fluffy as I’ve seen it in a long time. It’s only 11 at Worc. airport

  12. 5am GUSTS (mph)

    Nantucket : 68 mph

    Martha’s Vineyard : 61 mph

    Plymouth : 55 mph

    Hyannis and PTown : 54 mph

    Newport, RI : 51 mph

    Marshfield : 41 mph

    Logan : 39 mph

  13. Just woke up. Son stayed at friends in Boston cause he had to work. Couldn’t tell amount. Maybe a foot. He said tons of drifts. Very very light snow

  19. Eying. I’d say at least 16-18. Can only see top bell part of fire hydrant. Don’t know how tall hydrant is. Was up around 3:00 and maybe 6-8 at that point. Lots fallen since then.

  21. Watching ch 4.

    Secere flooding in downtown Scituate …

    Parts of Humarock have 4 ft of water.

    Hearing words of evacuations.

    1 hr past high tide, but, storm is holding tide in for now.

    1. Yes …..

      Sounds like some people stayed and I can only imagine what they are seeing outside around their homes.

  24. As far as how much snow …….

    LOL, the front walk doesn’t have a flake of snow on it and the screen door to the back deck really wouldn’t open.

    We’re over a foot and after that, who knows 🙂 🙂

  26. Now til noon still looks heavy, but I can see where we will still be watching a little light snow in Metrowest 12 hours from now.

  27. There is definitely some sleet/ice pellets mixed in here in eastern Marshfield.

    Unmistakeable pings on north facing windows.

  28. It’s been snowing like crazy in Boston and you can’t see a thing in front of you with the blowing snow.

    2. Seeing any decent drifts Hadi ?

      There are always a few locations in our yard that drift wildly.

      Need some morning light to see. 🙂

  31. Just got up….very groggy LOL….took a quick walk outside…at least 18 inches have fallen here in Hingham (roughly). Visibility about 2/10ths of a mile maybe a little better. Have seen one lonely plow in the past 15 minutes and roads look to have about half a foot of hard pack snow. Looking at the Wundermaps it looks like one heavier band just pivoting by and another one probably hitting in the next half hour or so. Also looks the precip field has tightened somewhat (ie shrinking a little again on the western side) but does not look to be moving much otherwise. Temp down to 16

      1. Hi Tom..Sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I actually fell back asleep. I’m about 1.5 miles from the harbor which is sheltered. The nearest I am to the open ocean is about 5 miles.

  32. Boston Harbor surge now at 3.90 ft !!!

    1 hr, 45 minutes past and because of the surge, the tide has dropped about a 1/4 ft.

    Usually at 1 hr, 45 minutes after high tide, the drop on a normal day, should be around 2.5 to 3.5 ft.

  33. 6am GUSTS (mph)

    Falmouth : 64 mph

    Nantucket : 63 mph

    Martha’s Vineyard : 62 mph

    Newport, RI, Hyannis and Plymouth : 51 mph

    Portsmouth, NH : 44 mph

    Providence, RI and Portland, ME : 43 mph

    Marshfield : 41 mph

    Logan : 39 mph

    Sandwich reporting lightning ! (from ch 4 reporter and showing on radar)

    1. Yup, he put the 24 inch + band back in under that band.

      Patience early in a storm, patience. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  37. Madness. Husband and I just walked the dogs in the south end. We needed to walk in the road since they had been a LITTLE bit plowed (otherwise we’d lose them in the snow!) and on one side of the street, the cars were almost completely covered. On the other side, bare almost down to the tires. How one measures this I have NO idea.

    Oh, and guess which side we are parked on. Grrrrrrr.

    1. Son stayed in south end so he could get to work this am. He said he was one of lucky ones whose car had all snow blown off. Said driving to work not bad but only because he was literally only car on rd at time

        1. Must be amazing to see.

          I didnt know where that hotel was, looked it up, evidently over by Plymouth Long Beach.

            1. Yikes !

              One of the stations just reported that voluntary evacuations by Marshfield fire taking place in Brant Rock village.

            2. Oh no Sue. This is why such a big part of me just doesn’t like these storms. Nothing we can do and they are beautiful. But so much destruction

    1. Yup, the lows movement is parallel to us.

      Those snow bands to our west, after remaining there for a while, are going to have to slowly translate back eastward thru us. Even if they weaken, the snow should be flying towards or maybe even past sunset.

      I think Boston, Marshfield could get another 12.

  44. Jonathan Hall on 7 trying to get to brant rock. Said driving is horrible there Tom. 6-7 feet of water on central ave Humarock. That is where both houses we stay in are. Evacuations in both locations.

    Also JR said if band working its way up coast parks on Boston there will be a lot more snow there

    Pete and JR say this will start to break up this afternoon except for maybe cape and possible sun tomorrow am

    78 mph wind gust Taunton which is pretty far inland

    1. Good luck with that ! 🙂 🙂

      Glad to hear its plow and not shovel !!

      Let the truck do the work. 🙂 🙂

      1. No joke.

        I was worried at midnight about my 28.5″ call for Worc.

        I’m feeling better now. Think we’re gonna make a run at that.

        1. The storm has made up for a slightly later start in those areas.

          Thank goodness for a few nervous snow lovers.

          1. Looks like on radar the storm is going to start to pivot. Waiting to see if the precip starts to build on the SW side a bit.

  48. Clearly my concerns last night will not come to fruition. Indeed some locations will perhaps exceed 30 inches. Thanks for keeping me in line last night Hadi and Tom!!!

    1. Wild stuff ….

      As you were saying last night, its now nice to have daylight to see what is happening and its crazy !!

  49. Good morning. Just read all of the posts.

    Most importantly THANK YOU TK for your expert analysis and completeness.
    Your dedication to this site astounds me! THANK YOU!

  50. Down our street, 1/4 mile, is the marsh that contains the south river.

    It is its own ocean , encroaching into people’s yards.

    There is a foot to maybe two foot incline to the yards, that is keeping the water from the houses.

    But to appreciate, there is about a 3 ft jump from the yard down into the marsh on a normal day.

  53. That area in the band from roughly Nashua, NH, to just east of Worcester, to Putnam, CT, is definitely where we’ll see the isolated 36″ reports. The mesoscale models really did do a good job in identifying that potential band.

    What a bust in NYC though, lol. In fact, it’s a bust pretty much everywhere except eastern New England.

  57. OS good to see you. I was worrying….no surprise I guess 🙂

    Baker did well other than tossing mets under bus by saying it looks to be less snow than forecast. I like the way he is handling it…as well as surrounding state govs

    Pete said temp at eye of storm is 60. Thought that was interesting.

    2. Boy, Was I ever bummed last night. I got carried away a bit with
      negativity about this storm. Then all of a sudden about 12:30 AM the heavens opened up and it started spewing snow. I woke up several times during the night
      to see practically no visibility each time.

      Looks fantastic out there.

      Not sure what we will end up with. Perhaps 20-24. No record, I’m afraid.
      No 30 inches here. But still a very nice storm.

  58. First time the dog seeing real snow, she was so scared! But then she jumped in and loved it! had to shovel a spot for her! Measured in 10 different non drift spots between the front and back yards, only averaged a solid foot. But no work today so I can’t complain.

  60. Yes I took out the heavier area on those hills briefly, saw the set-up and put it right back in. 😛

    This is why we have to watch as it unfolds and adjust constantly. 🙂

    Resting a little, be back soon!

  61. Arod, how much snow do u have? You’re in Westwood right? Pretty close to me. Curious if there’s been a gap in the accumulations in Norfolk cty

    1. Acemaster. Sorry for the delay. Just got back inside from plowing driveway. I have about 2 ft and still coming down!

  62. 7am wind GUSTS (mph)

    PTown : 68 mph

    Nantucket : 67 mph

    Hyannis : 58 mph

    Plymouth and Chatham : 56 mph

    Blue Hill : 48 mph

    Marshfield : 40 mph (I highly doubt this number)

    Logan : 36 mph

  63. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    ECMWF HRES was an outlier in its ensemble distribution for western storm edge snowfall … clear need to use all info from 51 members.

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6m6 minutes ago
    NWS around NYC, NJ snowfall forecasts were in 90-95th percentile of model guidance, 2x ECMWF ensemble mean with only 10:1 ratio

    1. Translation ….

      If your a met in SW CT or NYC,

      (Though its not your fault because of a lot of the guidance saying clobber city)

      Take a 2 week vacation and hope everyone down there forgets. 🙂

  65. I must say that although the SNOW FINALLY materialized here, the wind
    was a NO SHOW! Seriously the wind here does NOT meet blizzard standards.
    It’s windy to be sure, but NOT outrageously so.

    SNOW IS REALLY COMING DOWN at the moment. I mean REALLY

  66. It is really snowing hard here in Newton. I am not sure where I am going to get a clean measurement.

  71. Visibility: YIKES there is NO visibility. Virtually 0

    Snowing incredibly HARD.

    INTENSE SNOW! INTENSE!!!!!!!!!!!

  73. I take back my comment about blizzard conditions. THEY ARE MET at the moment.
    Really SERIOUS STUFF out there with SNOW and WIND combo. REally serious.

      2. Tom saw some video there as well and it is a lot for them. What I saw of Humarock is also more than typical. Jon Hall said you cannot get into esplanade brant rock because a wire is down and lying in water

    1. The actual snow falling has tapered some, yes.

      The funneled wind down the street is causing a whiteout though, so, it still looks impressive.

  76. Unless it is the result of wind blowing the snow it doesn’t seem overly impressive where I am. Not even coming down that bad.

    1. Here’s Retrac:

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      😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

      1. OR

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  80. We have about 20 inches in Pelham, NH. If this band stays over us we could get close to 3 feet. This band has been stuck over us since about 2:30 am…

  84. BlueHill Observatory ‏@bhobservatory 2m2 minutes ago
    At 8am BHOSC ob- Heavy S,BS, 12 deg. NNW28g41p51 Snowfall= 15.5″

    That’s 8 miles South of me

  85. Will this ever end!!!!!!!! Poor Tom Brady

    Todd Yakoubian ‏@KATV_Weather 2m2 minutes ago
    Report coming in that Tom Brady is responsible for deflating snow amounts in NYC.

  87. 8 am wind GUSTS (mph)

    PTown and Nantucket : 60 mph

    Hyannis and Martha’s Vineyard : 58 mph

    Plymouth and Worcester : 54 mph

    Taunton : 49 mph

    Marshfield, Providence, RI and Newport : 43 mph

    Logan : 36 mph

    1. Its amazing that it has completely stopped snowing here. Pulses of wind generated whiteouts from time to time.

      Making it nice and easy to observe, enjoying this break !!

      Every once in a while, its gotten extremely bright.

      1. Right in between bands.
        I sincerely hope it doesn’t make it here.
        I don’t think I could handle the gap and break in precip!!!!

  93. All the way UP to 15.6 here. Heat wave.

    Anyone know the ratio? Must be 15:1 at least I would think.

  94. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 33s34 seconds ago
    Don’t look now, but more snow on Friday and potential for another large snowstorm on Monday.

      1. Good! For a while I was worried that Boston might barely get to the lower end of the range. They’ll get into it easily.

  96. NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 10s11 seconds ago
    RT @RobMarciano: 15″ and counting here in #Boston not including drifts – still snowing sideways #Blizzardof2015

  97. Working on another entry so we can re-start the comment string. 😛 Oh, and update the forecast too. 😉

  98. Hopefully with the POTENTIAL for a bigger storm next week I won’t get jipped. Although I should not complain getting close to if not just over a foot.

    1. A foot is getting jipped? I Suppose so after looking at some of those models
      yesterday. WHAT discrepancies in those models.

    2. Remember, what a model tells you that you may get and what you actually get does not equate to being shorted. All it means is the model was incorrect. You were going to get that amount all along. 🙂

      1. Of course. What else could it possibly be.
        Doesn’t mean one can’t be disappointed however.

        How’d you like to be the Mayor of NYC after that debacle!
        What a busted forecast!!!

        1. For some of those forecasters out there it suddenly becomes about “my preferred model is going to be right” instead of actually forecasting. That screwed over a lot of forecasts down there.

          I and others that I know pulled my #’s back there on Sunday night. I was talking to a friend that lives in Little Silver NJ and told her to expect a lot less than what was being forecast there. That was Sunday night. Not sure why the others stayed so persistent.

          1. Indeed. You are a realist. Sometimes you tell us what we DON’T want to hear, but you are
            going on meteorology. No model hugging.

            Those forecasters SHOULD be ashamed of themselves.

            Funny that the GFS actually comes out looking
            pretty decent with this one.

  99. Old Salty I feel the same after the blizzard of 2005 where east of CT River Valley got foot and half plus and I got a foot.
    The way this winter has gone I will take a foot and its still snowing a very good clip right now.

  100. heavy snow, strong winds. Gone out to measure the wind .. One at 3am, one at 4:15 one at 5.30 , one at 6 one at 7 and one at 830. Each time, i was measuring winds between 30 to 34mph with gusts at times up to 46mph.. Its about time i was able to use my new toy from christmas 😀 not sure if it is working that good, Anyone around that can test my readings
    Since it is drifting so much … my board says 21 inches

  102. Here’s an idea of what NYC got: Rockaway is part of Extreme Eastern Queens Borough,
    NYC.

    Moshe Drillman ‏@thedrillsman 12m12 minutes ago
    @AccuRayno 2ft snow drift here in the rockaways 7 inches otherwise

  103. Meterologist Ryan Hanrahan gave a good explanation why areas in near NY boarder did not get the forecasted amount. The low instead of doing a little loop south of Block Island went more east shifting the heavier snow bands further east.
    This is goes to show how a slight shift makes a HUGE difference.

  109. I do think we can say that the forecast for NJ and NYC missed the mark. However, here’s the thing that some people miss. All forecasts are probabilistic. None are with absolute certainty. The media wants to see things in black or white terms. They over-hyped the storm for NYC by putting out numbers that were: a. probabilistic and not definite; b. at the high end of the forecast. I heard statements yesterday from anchormen and women who asserted NYC would get 30 inches of snow: “NYC is going to get 30 inches of snow.” No forecaster worth his or her salt would say such a thing. TK pointed out yesterday – looking at two NWS maps – that in OS’s bad dream the following would occur (10 inches of snow in Boston), and in OS’s good dream (34 inches). NWS was doing the proper sensitivity analysis. Even with a sensitivity analysis unaccounted for variables can come into play because of the dynamic and unpredictable nature of weather.

    1. i wonder how a certain weather page …..feels after they were bashing everyone that was saying the lower amounts lol

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