Winter Week

190 Comments

2:43AM

POST-STORM…
After so many updates, you’ll forgive me if, for now, I leave out a written summary of the big storm just departing, and provide you with 3 links from the National Weather Service. They will appear below in the comments section.

SUMMARY…
A classic week of Winter weather in southeastern New England. The big one has departed, mostly. There have been lingering patches of snow right into the early morning hours across eastern MA and southeastern NH but it’s finally all pulling away except a few last flakes on Cape Cod this morning. As upper level low pressure still has its influence on the region for a while today, some cloudiness will linger, but a ridge from the west will push this out and sun will increase later. Looking ahead, high pressure will bring a nice Winter day Thursday, but on its heels will quickly arrive another low pressure area from the west. This one will be an elongated system (north to south) and though the primary low center will likely pass over or just north of this area, another low is likely to redevelop just southeast and east of the region, offshore. This spells an episode of snow for part of Friday, a break, and then possibly some back-lash snow from the new storm Friday night to very early Saturday. There is some chance this second feature ends up a little further offshore and not as impacting, but it is something that needs to be watched just due to its expected close proximity. There will be some snow accumulation from the initial system, either way, but it does not look like all that much. Behind this, a shot of very cold air arrives for Saturday into Sunday. Then later Sunday clouds come back as another low approaches from the southwest in a faster flowing jet stream. The track of this is a little uncertain, but I’d favor a southern track, colder air holding, and a chance of snow later Sunday night into Monday. A dry and cold day will follow this on Tuesday, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this morning with a few lingering snow showers near Cape Cod. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-10 inland, 10-15 coast. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow morning to midday, a break, then a chance of more snow at night especially eastern MA and southeastern NH. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early, especially eastern MA and southeastern NH. Low 20. High 25.
SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding up afternoon. Chance of snow at night. Low 5. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 25. High 30.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

190 thoughts on “Winter Week”

  3. To TK,

    1st Link: Thanks for this … I added to My Favorites.

    2nd Link: I post this on WHW, but we have to watch the time of the measurement.

  4. Thanks TK

    Logan ended up just over two feet at 24.4. We added another two inches from yesterday afternoon coming in at 29. South boston had 31 inches. Great job to those that stuck with the higher totals as they materialized nicely over the area.

  5. Holy cow 6z gfs goes ballistic for QPF on Monday but too warm. Don’t buy the warm solution. Euro now much colder and decent QPF as well. We have another watcher.

  9. CMC is very warm with a ton of rain. I just don’t see a warm solution to be honest with recent snow pack.

  13. I added a 3rd link.

    At this stage I favor a little less QP than the models are showing but a colder result.

    2. I agree to colder solutions as well and maybe storms much further south with less QP.

      Both already signaling cold high pressure to our north, something likely to get only stronger in coming days.

      Plus, all tbe refrigerant on the ground.

    3. Could you explain why it matters if an area had blizzard conditions? Is it a record-keeping task?

      Are there any records of blizzard conditions in N.E. in which there was only blowing snow and no falling snow?

      1. Not sure of the statistical significance.

        I’d have to do some checking on New England official ground blizzards.

  14. Thanks TK.
    Meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT said for that Sunday night Monday a lot of moisture with that system but a lot of different tracks from the models. I am hoping for the colder snowier solution to pan out.

  15. Thanks TK. Made it into work at 6:30 and the roads were still in rough shape. A lot of the secondary roads are only one lane. I feel for the folks that were out there plowing though the storm as it looks like they still have a lot of work to do.

  16. I love the calm. It feels nice to just sit and absorb it for a bit.

    Tom, Marshfield made national news on the Today Show. Dylan is also there and I am sure happy to see some of her old co-workers.

    Ch 7 reporting Worcester with 34 (I think) and Milford with 31 were jackpot areas. Tells me that they are discounting the last 33 report I saw from Framingham.

  18. BB on BZ threw out a number for Monday’s storm. If cold enough, 6-12.” (It sounded more like a random comment than a forecast.)

    1. NWS out of Upton, NY said in their hazardous weather outlook for southern four counties of CT was saying 6 or more inches
      but probably no more than a foot since it will be a progressive system.

      1. Thanks Stue – I know there has been a name change or two so perhaps you are not new?? If you are, welcome!!!

  20. Looking forward to the midday sun getting some elevation, and with the dark pavement lurking underneath, maybe helping road conditions improve a bit more.

    Kudos to any and all road crews for all the great work they do !

  21. Once again many thanks to TK for his dedicated work to this site.
    Excellent job with the big storm.

    1. Absolutely agree, OldSalty. TK – amazing as always – and to you, OS, and Tom and every single person here for all of your knowledge and updates and patient explanations!

  22. I just measured an additional 2.5 inches overnight for a grand total
    of 23.5 inches. Looking over the snowfall reports, I see some huge variability over short
    distances.

    Oh well, it is what it is. Ontp to the next one!!!!

    What originally looked quite minor for Friday, not looks far more interesting. 😀

    1. Agree about huge variability. I know its been said here a few times that once u get these big snow amounts, there’s not much difference but i totally disagree. My wife works in Mattapan and drives 138 from our house in Sharon. We ended up with 19.5″ (despite the NWS report of 29.5″) which is in line with immediate surrounding towns. Mattapan and surrounding South Boston areas got around 30.” The road was fine to start out but once she got closer to work that 10″ difference was huge in terms of snow removal on the roads and overall cleanup time. Its basically like getting another major storm.

  23. http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVyrZ6MhU4BoAErvBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTByMG04Z2o2BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–/RV=2/RE=1422481753/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2fproducts%2fprecip%2fCWlink%2fpna%2fnao.shtml/RK=0/RS=DHY_hXl74Mgd5yUTW1B.Genw11I-

    http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVyD.6MhUT3UAPXvBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTByODJtaWUzBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–/RV=2/RE=1422481791/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2fproducts%2fprecip%2fCWlink%2fdaily_ao_index%2fao.shtml/RK=0/RS=ZszYOHxN_UnWdU2NvSF3PdFJXys-

    Our blizzard occurred during a positive NAO and a positive AO.

    Ha !!!

    1. We’re the hell do you guys find room to put it. Especially if you get more. Do they remove the snow?

      1. They only remove it from the main street in the Commercial Business area, for stores and restaurants. and even that is only sometimes. Most times they just leave it be. Other than that. it’s too bad for us.

      2. I remember as a kid Belmont (and probably other towns) came around with a conveyor belt type of machine that put the snow into a truck and off it went. Mac remembers in Sweden when they loaded the snow into horse drawn wagons and took it away. Now we plow and then the sidewalk plow comes along and pushes it back ito the street. Ahhhhhhhh progress 🙂

  25. Joe Bastardi tweeted ratio’s were 20-30 to 1 is that correct. He said boston got 22″ from .95 melted precip.

    1. We don’t think so. That is what TOM was saying yesterday with Logans 1 inch
      qpf. Something is SCREWY with that whole Logan operation. It was better
      when the NWS office was located there. Now I don’t know what they are
      doing over there????

    2. There’s no way Boston only had .95″ melted. Something’s wrong there. Was probably closer to 2″, for a ratio closer to 10 or 12:1.

  26. I LOVE that we have a legit snowpack now. The landscape is so white and wintry, like it should be in NE. It finally looks like winter around here. 🙂

    1. hahaha – do you have to type your name each time? And a very warm welcome to the blog this morning then 🙂

      1. Not normally but I think because I was coming in from a different IP on my work laptop last night it had me enter my name and it was still in the field as Stue after messing it up last night. 🙂

  28. Pelham, NH ended up with just over 30 inches. I want to take a moment to thank everyone on this blog that adds invaluable information. Many of you work hard and really give accurate info. Obviously, I want to thank TK who does an incredible job. Thanks again for all your hard work, this is the place to get real weather. With all that said I think the mets did a great job here in Boston on this forecast. They accurately forecasted over 30 inches in many cases 48-72 hrs out which is pretty incredible.

    1. Agree, the local Mets did a Fine job with this one as did TK and JMA. Eric’s was particularly good.

    1. Euro actually Shows it spinning snow back down the coast into all of Eastern MA.
      Going to get interesting, I’m afraid.

  30. I want to speak about the high resolution short-range models for a minute. It seems as though they were highly variable and inaccurate during the blizzard. The global models (i know had their usual issues as well) seemed much better even in the hours leading up to the first flakes at recognizing the finer details of the storm.

    1. Is there a such thing as TOO much data being fed into these computer models and any slight change in atmospheric conditions causing subsequent details to be much more pronounced? I just wonder if they try so hard to pinpoint every little detail that its actually causing more inaccuracy in the overall outcome.

      1. Interesting thought. HRRR did not perform all that well, however, the Proprietary RPM model did very well. Go Figure.

        1. JMA and I agreed that the RPM would be worth paying attention to, the reason being it performed well in the similar Feb 2013 storm.

          I mentioned it here Monday but it may have gotten lost in the Comment Jungle. 😉

  31. Thanks TK and everyone for the great information.

    OS what time is the snow supposed to start Friday?

    Thanks,
    TJ

  32. Official Woods Hill Woburn storm total: 24.0

    Had more in the 2013 storm but very close.

    My friend on the north side of Woburn basically on 128/95 had 24.5 inches.

    1. I can see that because the first center may go north of here. My first call will be this afternoon.

      Regardless we have to watch for the redevelopment. Could turn into what I call a “mesobomb” and catch part of eastern MA into NH Friday night.

      1. MESOBOMB

        LOVE IT!!! LOVE IT TO DEATH!!!

        Did you coin that term yourself? OR is that a term that has
        been around and we just never hear it?

        Very Clever. NICE

      1. He must think it will RAIN.

        850 temps are fine. With S or SW winds ahead of this,
        I guess he’s thinking WAA. I dunno. I think it snows.

        1. In part 1, we aren’t talking much precipitation anyway, I don’t think. Some snow showers, maybe rain showers SE of Boston.

          And then do we see additional precipitation from the developing ocean low.

          That’s my take anyway.

  34. According to the latest snowfall total update Logan recorded 24.6″ for the entire storm but on Monday Logan recorded 2.3″ and yesterday 22.1″.

    According to MY math: 2.3″ + 22.1″ = 22.4″

    Where did the 0.2″ come from?? Which is correct? Did 0.2″ fall after midnight?

    1. Right and that is ALL from Part 2.
      It has RAIN for most or ALL of part 1.

      Decent qpf down the toilet for part 1.

      Say it ain’t so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

    2. It’s interesting looking at the isobars on the developing ocean storm.

      The contours and the way they are elongated back towards the coastline.

    1. Who knows? It was reported that a funny smelling smoke was pouring out of the observor office over there. 😀

      Actually, it sounds somewhat reasonable.

  37. I think there won’t be much impact on the snowcover from Friday, part 1.

    An hour or 2 of rain showers (worst scenario) and temps in the mid 30s will settle the snow a bit. That would be good, since we can’t see over it at th e moment.

    2. Excellent article. Blame does NOT go to one model, it goes to the forecasters who ignored its bias and recent issues and put all their trust in it while all other models clearly had a better handle on it.

      1. Basically it was EURO BIAS and IGNORE the others.

        Even the NAM was back and forth for NYC, but in the end,
        I believe it left NYC out.

        I just checked the maps. The 18Z NAM on 1/26 croaked NYC
        with about 40 inches. The 0Z NAM gave NYC about a foot.
        Considerable difference. So the NAM finally caught on. The GFS NEVER bought into the big SNOWS for NYC.

  39. Eric said yesterday that snow would be better for Monday. Rain would produce even more problems…rooftops, etc.

    1. 12Z GFS has pushed the Mon system almost completely OTS with just the South Shore and Cape getting some snow.

      1. Let’s see if the Euro and CMC make any adjustments.

        Still a bit out there. Plenty of time for model tweaks.

        We shall see.

        1. Very true. We learned that with this blizzard. Three days from the event it had it going harmlessly OTS too.

  40. GFS weaker for next Monday. For recovery purposes, amt of snow on the ground and a chance for everything to return to normal, I’d be very happy with no storms for a while.

    Of course, it will do what it will do.

  41. The high-resolution RPM (Rapid Precision Mesoscale) weather model,
    is a proprietary product from WSI, a professional division of The Weather Company
    and is NOT available to us. What a shame.

    http://www.theweathercompany.com/

    I wonder IF that will ever be available. WOULD LOVE to get my hands on that
    prior to and during an event.

    1. Even with that, if modeled incorrectly, would NOT take much for decent
      snow in coastal areas. A Watcher for sure.

  43. No changes in initial thought about Friday.

    Liking the ideas of weaker and more open wave that has a southern track late Sunday to early Monday. Actually that had been my feeling since yesterday as is reflected in the outlook above.

  44. CMC is coming out and sure does NOT have an OTS or Southern solution.
    Not far enough along to know if/where it sprouts a re-development, if any, but it looks
    to be headed for the Lakes.

    1. Thanks OS !

      I wonder if the various takes are somewhat dependent on how each model handles the Friday system, which much have implications for how the atmosphere is behaving over the US.

      All options on the table, I guess.

  46. Framingham just cancelled school until Monday. Friday was a PD day anyway. Will be interesting to see what happens with the snow on Monday.

      1. Yes, I’m really not sure what the decision will be down here.

        Looking at Brant Rock, you think one thing, but then, I read the police chief’s current town storm update and it sounded somewhat upbeat.

        I havent been out and about, but I’d assume our roads are also narrow and not down to pavement.

      2. We got a reverse 911 early am saying the snow emergency parking ban remains in effect until 8:00 am tomorrow so we were not surprised when they cancelled.

  47. Re: Ratios

    If we look at the NAM snowmap and Total qpf in inches
    and compare we can get an idea.

    Snow

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    qpf

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012700&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=048

    Let’s take snow 24-36 and qpf 1.6 to 2.2

    If we take 24/1.6 = ratio of 15:1
    If we take 36/2.2 = ratio of 16.4:1

    We can do all sorts of things in between.

    And for the record, that snow map was NOT NOT all that far off from what was
    reported.

    So ratios were somewhere in the range of 14 to 16.5 to 1

    Of this assumes that the QPFs were close on the map. Snow fall was close, so
    I “assume” the qpfs were at least close.

    2. I was hoping Logan’s ob might have been reworked a bit for melted. They may have tried by putting 2 (24) hr total amts in successive obs.

      I believe the amts are .56 and .67, so, I’m still confused if they are trying to say the melted storm total was 1.23 ………

      Then, my next question would be, does that seem reasonable.

      I only bring this up because, if the 1.23 is true, then we better remember that on the big event and take it into account when models are spitting out 2+ inches melted.

      I still dont fully buy that 1.23

  48. Interesting

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 21m21 minutes ago
    NWS & others highlighted GFS so-called blizzard victory … but just as likely it was “right for the wrong reason” (2/2)

  50. After shoveling today I was overcome with the immense urge to build a snowman. But the snow is too fluffy!! 🙁 Oh well! Many more chances to come….

    1. There’s someone down here on Rte 139 that makes a snowman, when there’s a dusting (and I dont know how they do it with such little snow) and the other day with about 2-3 inches of wet snow, they made a family of snowmen. This has gone on as long as we’ve been here. The ones recently have had some Patriots gear on them. Havent driven past since the blizzard happened.

  51. If I heard correctly, the Governor and Lt. Governor are due to visit Brant Rock and the affected Scituate area today, starting around 2pm.

    Also, if I heard correctly at noon, our police chief was showing the reporters that they discovered today a second, small (a distance in feet, maybe tens of feet) section of seawall that is now compromised. I believe this is in Brant Rock.

  52. EURO at 72 hrs has a 988mb low maybe 100 miles east of Cape Cod and a nice, closed 500mb circulation right above it.

    I wonder what it thinks for any snow in easternmost Mass.

    Of course, with its performance recently ………

  53. Looks like the GFS and Euro got some better sampling on the Monday system for their 12z runs. Looks like that system will be weak and suppressed. We’ll see though, maybe it comes back.

    Tom- 12z Euro shows 3-6″ for eastern Mass. Might be a little overdone.

  54. friday system.. light snow around the area 2-4 inches maybe isolated 5 or 6 inch amounts mainly north of the pike.. 5-10 in maine.

    next system models all over the place, will post a map of the model points in a bit.

    1. That’s unbelievable. … Click your heels 3 times and repeat there’s no place like home, no place like home, no place like home … Soon, you’ll be in Kansas.

      I think a blizzard is possible in parts of coastal Maine Friday night into Saturday. May turn out to be a mega-monster once it hits the Canadian Maritimes, though could be heavy rain in Halifax. Interestingly, the system that produced our heavy snow weakened considerably and fragmented into many pieces. Believe it or not, there’s been lots of rain (!) in coastal Newfoundland.

      1. I love all seasons…probably Summer more than others but right now the thought of 80 degrees in January doesn’t work for me….Maybe by the end of March and early April…but not now.

  58. with the map on the left, it shows all the model points, those lines between points shows points of energy transfers. Colors go with colors.

    I also posted some pics.

  59. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 54m54 minutes ago
    GFS EC retreat on storm next week. EC ensembles, ukmet, jma dont

    2. WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 6m6 minutes ago
      As if #Juno wasn’t enough, ECMWF EPS showing some promise for another big snow storm in the #Northeast next Mon-Tues

  60. Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
    Kyle Hanson ‏@KeyyLay 1h1 hour ago
    Funny how the GFS model was more accurate 96 hours before the storm, having the bullseye at the coast @SurfSkiWxMan

      1. I’m ok, thank you. Hope all is well with you and your family. Lots have been going on so I am not up to date what’s been going on here – except for the snow!

        I am also on Facebook now.

          1. Yes, today. I finally did it. And it’s rather exciting and new to me – husband has been on it for years.

            Missed being on the blog – just a lot of stuff going on.

              1. I’m kind of new to this – I friended TK ’cause it said if you want to friend. On your facebook, I couldn’t find where to friend – just to send a message. Help! Want to friend you!

  62. Hope everybody is enjoying the snow. They let us go at 7:30 this morning after two very long and intense days. Just woke up as I hadn’t been to bed since Sunday night. Had to call a plow when I got home to do my driveway.

      1. Nah, I was just figuring out if I wanted to write a new blog now or summarize it here and write the new blog later. 😛

      2. By the way I’ll be up on your hill tonight. Starting out by digging a path from a walkway to the oil fill on my friend’s house. Man they should switch to gas heat. 😛

        1. HA thanks for reminding me I forgot to do that after a 9 hour-2 day cleanup. Darn oil line.

          Not sure if you heard they are proceeding with townhouses and houses on the farm. Townhouses START at 799k!

  68. 18Z GFS still says NEVER MIND for Monday. That’s 2 runs in a row.
    Well, there is the 0Z run. 😀

  69. Mark Rosenthal ‏@weatherblast 6m6 minutes ago
    Light snow Friday could become more serious from Boston North late in the day. At the moment, the Monday storm looks a miss.

    1. If anything it would be Friday night on the back side. Frontside looking like a coating for Boston but should be enough for a call in Friday wee hrs of the morning.

  72. New blog by 8PM. Mostly written but have to finish from the other side of Woburn in a while. 🙂

    1. OK, but just because the pump is primed doesn’t mean it’s going to spit water. 😀

      BUT you are correct. We just need to line things up.

      AND just because a few model runs say no now, doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. As Ace said earlier we just have to go back to Friday for Monday’s event. It was a NO GO on Friday. Look what happened!

  75. I don’t think anyone will be calling this winter a dud now or comparing to 11-12 winter. Boston has a good shot now of three straight winters of above normal snowfall and if that happens 4 of 5 winters this decade above normal snowfall.

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