So, What’s Next?

241 Comments

8:57PM

SUMMARY…
You want to know what’s next? I’ll tell you. Cold weather and additional threats of snow, but no immediate threats of any blockbuster storms such as the one we just experienced here in southern New England. I see three threats in the pipeline, but only 2 that fall within the 7-day forecast period, so those are the two that will be dealt with here. But first, COLD. A cold night tonight as high pressure settles in behind the departed storm. And a clear sky, light wind, and deep snowcover with very dry air in place combine to allow for very cold air, and that’s what will happen overnight. Bright sunshine Thursday may give way to some high clouds later in the day as a low pressure system in the Great Lakes and Midwest advances toward the Northeast and those clouds will then cover the sky during tomorrow night, leading to an unsettled day Friday. Currently it looks like the initial low pressure area will come in as a north-south elongated system with the main center passing through central New England. It should have enough cold air to work with for some accumulating snow, though fairly minor in amount, during the day on Friday with enough mild air for some mixing or rain along the South Coast to Cape Cod. The wildcard is what happens on Friday night and early Saturday. There are strong signs that the low will redevelop and rapidly intensify just off the coast then move through the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. The position of redevelopment and rate of intensification will determine how much, if any, back-lash snow reaches portions of southern New England. It looks like a pretty certain bet that much of Maine will get a decent snowfall out of it, and a fair chance that eastern NH and possibly northeastern MA get at least a glancing blow from it, but not sure if that would extend into other parts of eastern MA including Boston. Something to watch closely. Whatever takes place should be moving out by early Saturday, which will end up a windy and very cold day. A core of Arctic air will come by Saturday night and early Sunday with quite a chill. During Sunday, clouds will rapidly advance in ahead of a wave of low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. Though it is several days away, I’m leaning toward this system passing south of New England Sunday night and early Monday, but close enough for the chance of some snow into southern New England. It does not look like a big storm based on this thinking, but we’ll have to watch this for any shifts. Another shot of very cold air follows for Monday night through Wednesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to 0 inland, 0 to +15 coast. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny until the end of day when high clouds advance from west. Highs 25-30. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of snow except mix South Coast toward dawn. Temperatures steady 25-30 except rising to lower 30s South Coast. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches morning and midday except snow/mix/rain with snow accumulation less than 1 inch South Coast / Cape Cod. A period of snow possible northeastern MA into NH at night with additional accumulation. Highs in the 30s. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 10. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 25.

241 thoughts on “So, What’s Next?”

  9. GFS looks similar to NAM.

    Regardless of whether that redevelopment backlashes with some snow ….

    Its going to be interesting come late Friday night, into Saturday, when the wind increases and the cold returns with 2 ft of snow on the ground. Hello blowing snow, maybe some lower visibilities, etc.

    Thats a quickly deepening low with a big gradient forming.

    1. and … the GFS brings back a strengthening system for next Monday, fairly far south of the benchmark, a decent size mid-atlantic region snowfall, with some snow in southernmost New England.

  12. I’m not falling into the “it’s on again, it’s off again” trap. Consistent forecast for now, only to shift if need be. And wavering runs this far out is absolutely no reason to change anything. Some local media was saying that the Monday storm is “on again”. It was neither on, nor off, just a potential event to watch.

    1. Couldn’t agree with you more. Some mets on Twitter react to each run of their favorite models and tweet out “Monday’s storm is a miss”. Then 6 hrs later “wow Monday could be major”. You lose credibility and where is the forecasting in that. You are a professional.

      1. Thank you for the compliment.

        It’s one thing to look at the various runs here and compare them, or like O.S. posts them up for us and offers his colorful commentary. I love that.

        But to go on air and waver from run to run .. doesn’t work. I made an early call on Monday’s threat and will adjust it if needed, and more drastically only when I am sure the solution will be vastly different than my original call.

    1. I can’t argue too much with those #’s. I’ve had a feeling about this one for a couple days. By Friday night we’ll be getting quite a dump of cold air at all levels and that snow should end up powdery. Above I only used the phrase “additional accumulation” for this part of the event, but by Thursday afternoon I’ll put some #’s on it.

          1. Back in the day I could…at least it should be powdery even though it’s not the best to clean either with the blowback.

            1. Just teasing you but I hear you about the “back in the day” thing. I already notice some limits I didn’t have 20 years ago. 😀

              1. Oh I know. I find I can still do it but it just takes me longer to do it and recover. It can snow all it wants…wouldn’t mind a week between events but like Tom said it will do what it will do.

  15. re: Monday

    CMC remains as the outlier.

    GFS and Euro say no way Jose.

    SO we shall see on that.

    I’m more concerned about tomorrow night.

    NAM wants to get us with some reasonable support from the Euro.

    Want to see what the 12Z NAM run looks like.

    Going to get damn cold in a hurry once that new low gets going.

    1. Re: Monday.
      CMC is a poor performer this Winter.
      GFS and Euro are doing their typical dances. Sometimes opposites attract and sometimes they don’t.

      Re: Tomorrow.
      NAM/GFS blend, which sounds odd.
      The NAM actually did an interestingly decent job outside 48 hours on the big storm, and got worse in many areas closer to the event (the run that predicted 48 inches for NYC is a glaring example). Not that I think that has anything to do with tomorrow’s event, seeing how it’s INSIDE 48 hours. Just an observation.

  17. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 2m2 minutes ago
    new video this morning. potential is there sun into mon. 1) injection of arctic air into storm is there. the key to storm is depth of trof.

    Btw, the FIM wants to graze us with 3-5 inches of snow for Monday.

    Monday system is not dead. Still needs to be watched. Still could be a miss, but
    cannot dismiss it just yet.

  19. Are most of these totals for tomorrow during the overnight in Saturday? Curious how it will be during the work hours and commutes.

  20. Thanks, TK.

    It is -1 degrees in Sudbury, now.

    Many people are calling this the “Blizzard of 2015”.

    Anyone know what they’re going to call the next blizzard we get (if we get one) this year? 🙂

  23. Whether its some actual light rain or above 32F temps, I think there’s a window of time tomorrow to see roads and well cleaned driveways/walkways become wet in southeast New England tomorrow.

    Then, at some point, the cold moves back in later tomorrow on increasing northwest winds.

    All this writing to wonder if there’s a flash freeze scenario setting up tomorrow evening for areas south and east of Boston, especially Cape Cod, where I’d have to think it will be close to 40F for a while tomorrow ……

  24. I got up at 6:45 AM and it was 3.7 on my thermometer. brrr

    Some real DINKS when it comes to snow removal!@*(#*!@*(&#*&!*@#&*(!&@#*&(!@ Plowing and/or shoveling snow into the street such that the width of the street
    is constricted enough so ONLY ONE CAR can pass. Not passable for a car in each direction!

    The problems of tons of snow in the City.

    These people must have Below Zero IQS. MORONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I was stuck at one red light for 20 minutes because of this crap.

        1. So sorry, OS. I don’t get it. This was never a problem when people were able to think and we all did what had to be done and without fanfare.

  25. Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 20m20 minutes ago
    00z GFS and EURO ensemble for 1pm Monday still suggest impact event for the eastern US.

  26. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 56m56 minutes ago
    As a primer, you’ll want to plan on waking up tomorrow & checking radar with me on NECN – snow bursts will make things slick/snowy for many.

  27. Watch out ….. I think the 12z NAM is setting up this redevelopment a bit further south, as opposed the Gulf of Maine.

  28. Fox snow map has the 4-7 range all the way down through the blackstone valley. It seems a little premature to jump on that bandwagon…am I wrong?

    1. I don’t think it is premature.
      I actually think that is a good map. But that’s just my feeling as I am often
      full of Crap. 😀

      1. Maybe it’s because we are wishful for snow. I have a feeling it might be trending toward their map, but i think I would wait for more guidance before putting that out.

        1. Well, see below. Apparently they feel they have to
          be the First. Then if they are correct, they can brag about it.

    1. Thank you JJ. Mac had a critical (literally) appt tomorrow so dr was nice enough to reschedule for this pm. Glad I did just in case.

  33. Well, sort of similar to the NAM’s 18z version for snow projections.

    I’m not going to expect the 4 or so inches it shows for Marshfield.

    The bigger thing I take away is a sharp temp drop sometime late Friday or Friday evening, becoming very windy with blowing snow from what is already on the ground, so some driving impacts whether it actually snows or not.

    I’m personally thinking an inch, maybe 2 of new snow in Marshfield Friday evening. We’ll see. 🙂

    Heading out.

  34. Best chance for level 2 snow event greater than 4 inches to me is North Shore extending very close to Boston.
    Level 1 snow event 4 inches less rest of SNE.
    I am more interested with the early week storm threat and there maybe another storm threat later next week. We are definetley in an active pattern.

  35. Heard a radio spot on my way to work from Fox 25 weather team…insinuating they were the first to call the blizzard (no idea is this is true)…then it ended with the tagline “The Fox 25 weather team…keeping you and your family safe.” Hard to convey online but with the audio bit they played and the intense music is all seemed over the top dramatic. The sun will kill you…the snow will kill you…it’s just not safe to leave your house anymore…HAHA.

    1. Pretty funny, indeed. Hype, Drama, Ratings. The name of the game.
      $$$$$$$$ drives it all. Disgusting imho.

      1. Friend said he watched Newsroom (I think that is what it is called) on HBO last night and it is excellent. If I understand correctly, it is about news as it used to be or as we think it used to be

        1. It’s actually more about what we hope the News would (should) be like. Same writer/creator as West Wing.

  36. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m7 minutes ago
    Blizzard conditions develop tom pm/night for Maine and into NE mass. Wind whipped backlash behind clipper, bombing out off Cape Cod

  37. Another system I am going to miss out on the bigger totals. Only expecting 1-3 inches here.
    I hope Mother Nature gives me a good dumping and one of those storm threats pans out next week.

  39. AceMaster for a small state of CT the blizzard was interesting. West of I-91 where I live it was a moderate snowfall 4-10 inches east of that corridor your measuring the snow in feet. Thompson, CT the big winner up in far northeastern CT with 33.4 inches of snow. The headline on the local paper here yesterday was a near miss and boy was it. If that storm does not shift 100 miles east all of us in SNE would have been buried.

  41. To settle the earlier difference of opinion on whether OS’s quote was more Muhammad Ali or Edgar Allan Poe…

    How about a compromise: Edgar Ali Poe.
    Yes?

    No?

    😉

  42. 12Z RGEM Mesoscale model looking mighy interesting for tomorrow.

    BTW, for ALL day tomorrow, Mid-level temperatures SUPPORT SNOW ALL DAY.
    It’s just a question of the boundary layer. My feeling is that along the South shore,closer to the ocean’s influence, probably will go to rain. Up here, my feeling is it SNOWS
    all day at varying intensity. Even with the clipper it may snow decently during
    the day.

  44. Jeremy Reiner retweeted
    Dan Hausle ‏@dhausleon7 1m1 minute ago
    Don’t drive and….. Uh don’t drive at all in Boston today. Still a #blizzard2015 mess #7News

  45. 12Z GFS coming MORE into agreement with the NAM.

    Snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    Wants to bring clipper right across MA and redevelop just to the East:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=030

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=033

    We’re nearing very dangerous territory there. AWFULLY close.

  46. 12Z GFS has the trough DIGGING more for Monday. It “may” just be game on.
    We’ll know in a few minutes.

    2. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago
      3-6″new snow tom/tom night Mass pike north,east of Ct river,strong winds develop with sub zero cold by Sat am
      Blizzard conditions I-95 Me,NH

  48. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

    Not your average looking clipper on the water vapor loop.

    A general large circulation centered around the Indiana/Ohio border and I’m debating as to whether or not I see a mini spin in central Iowa.

    Usually, its such a given with 98% of clippers that this type of upper level support is always tracking over far northern New England or southernmost Canada, but not this time.

  49. We are certainly not to discount the storm potential for Mon/Tues. Looks to be another biggie. That southern jet doesn’t need to buck much for SNE to get into the heavy stuff. Yesterday, models suggested OTS. Today, a bit further north. I think that trend will continue.

      1. Ha! There is always the potential Sue :D. I think a few inches of snow is likely Fri/Sat although this storm may throw a few monkey wrenches. The Mon/Tues storm has my attention. I’m confident of a high impact event with that system.

  51. JJ, did you notice the 12z GFS looks more robust for CT tomorrow with 3 or 4 inches?

    Jury is out on the Monday event but looks like we get grazed at a minimum.

    Really interesting set up on the 12z GFS for next Thursday as well…huge dip in the jet, clipper come down from Canada, and southern stream energy near the Gulf. They just don’t come together at the right time to generate a big east coast storm. Another watcher though.

  52. The CMC which was the only one that wanted to get us on Monday, now “looks”
    to want to pass out South of us. Run not complete, so we shall see. 😀

  54. Hi Mark… I noticed for tomorrow 12z GFS putting down some of the 3 4 inch amounts northwest northeast hills. This is the most snow this model has showed for tomorrow’s system. It looks to give other parts of the state about half an inch to an inch more than previous runs.
    I agree with you about Monday I think its a graze at minumum and no way does it miss us totally. 12z GFS wants to give more snow to the shoreline than inland.

    1. Don’t you ever have any good news? HAHA. May as well get it over with I guess. Piles are so big I can’t see around corners on some roads.

  56. Good afternoon!! Cold but nice and sunny, we ended up with 20.3 inches of snow from the snowstorm, about what I was thinking. Tommorrows rain/snow event looks mostly like rain for the Boston to Providence corridor, or my neck of the woods or 28 miles SSW of Boston. Stay warm!!

    The start of the Spring season (meetings, seminars and many many meetings through Feb preparing for the March Kickoff, I’ll be in Jamaica for 3 days at the end of Feb, and when I get back its go time, ekkk lol it goes way to fast, enjoy the day everyone 🙂

    2. “Tommorrows rain/snow event looks mostly like rain for the Boston to Providence corridor”

      If I had a nickel for every time you said this, I could buy a flight to Bermuda!

      😉

    3. Charlie I think we are well aware of your winter schedule :). And bono think mostly snow up here maybe rain down in your area. Maybe you should post about your area vs Boston bc we clearly have a different climate up here.

  59. NWS just added Boston and point south to the WWA and added the 4-6 inch area further south.

    @NWSBoston: Winter Weather Advisories have been extended through the Boston Metro and south shore for late tonight – tomorrow: http://t.co/t1boiSyUgM

    1. Is it out of the rhelm that Boston, Marshfield or other coastal areas could get 3 or more consecutive hours of tomorrow night of ….

      Wind gusts > 35 mph, moderate snow and visibilities < 1/4 mile ?

      Wouldn't it be interesting if someone meets blizzard criteria only 72-96 hrs apart ? (I am NOT saying this will happen, only pondering the possibility).

      I do think the advisory is absolutely the correct call.

      1. I would NOT be surprised, BUT it depend on RATE of storm
        intensification. It would REALLY have to BOMB OUT and fast.

        THUNDER SNOW???? Who knows

  60. Anyone have QPF for Euro on Monday?

    Damn 24 hour increments have one scratching one’s head.
    Looks like a hit, but I can’t tell.

    1. Not yet as soon I get them I will pass along.

      Tom agree 100%, the advisory was needed. I also think a system like this can and usually does has some surprises.

  61. Matt Noyes about Monday potential:

    @MattNoyesNECN: At present, a larger number of solutions actually favor a track closer to the coast Monday. Therefore, it is unwise to write the storm off.

  62. re: Monday

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    At present, a larger number of solutions actually favor a track closer to the coast Monday. Therefore, it is unwise to write the storm off.
    0 replies 1 retweet 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite
    More
    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 3m3 minutes ago
    The average “out to sea” solution that is offered is the product of a few very strong out to sea outliers that are pulling the average east

  64. I guess we can’t have it both ways, eh?

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 4m4 minutes ago
    The bigger Saturday’s storm is, the faster and farther south Monday’s steering flow will be

      1. BUT, with the weather the end result often is NOT what we expect, so I wouldn’t let my guard down just yet.

        Anyone remember the old jokes about “Your GrandMother is on the roof?”

        That’s the situation for tomorrow night/Saturday.

        I am concerned that this may end up BIGGER yet than what
        is forecast. We shall see.

        Subsequent model runs will make for interesting viewing.

  66. Hey guys : final cleanup at work today with the snow ugh!!!!! I’m hurting . Is Boston in on the action tonight as well. Do we know times for both tonight and tomorrow. Thanks.

    1. Thanks JJ. I did get some rest yesterday I’ve had a cold and with all the
      Extra snow hours since Saturday just feel like crap. It will pass.

      1. Hey John. I commend you for all your hard work. Your efforts should never be overlooked. Get rest.

  71. Euro has .50 QPF for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Also it has trended a little north for Monday’s event. It also has a powerful system late next week.

    1. Hadi, I commented above that the GFS looked close to something big late next week as well. Big dip in the jet and energy coming from both the northern and southern streams. Interesting pattern for sure.

    1. Not seeing a whole lot of support for a further north track, but should be close enough to bring a light to moderate snowfall to a good chunk of SNE.

  73. I said earlier 25-50 miles further north for Monday storm THREAT were in business.
    Would not be surprised to see more winter weather advisories across other parts of SNE for tomorrow’s system.

  74. Monday storm will depend on how strong this storm that will effect us tonight through friday night is.
    Storm for tonight through friday night
    Maine 8+
    New hampshire, North central, northeast mass. 4-8 inches (6-8 confined to areas east of i95)
    2-4 inches over the rest of massachusetts and vermont. northern ct, northern RI
    0-2 inches south coast/cape and islands. RI and Southern CT.

    do not call off the monday storm, but for now looks out to sea.

  75. I think this next system underperforms in general for SNE. 1-3″ for most except 3-5″ North Shore. Much more for parts of Maine obviously as this will become a big storm, just too late to affect SNE much I think. As for the Monday stom, still hard to call, but right now the most sensible idea would seem to be a light snowfall south of the Pike while the mid-Atlantic gets a larger part of the storm. If it shifts north though it could be a higher impact event.

  76. What’s up everyone?

    Finally feeling better and catching up with some work. I’m thinking for Friday-Saturday a general 3-6 for Boston to north shore. 1-2inches south shore. Monday will be light Boston south shore 2-4 with 3-6 along south coast and cape. Storm system later in the week is probably the next big sized storm. Finally excited to have storms to watch.

  77. Upon further review…

    Official call for Friday through early Saturday: 2-4 inches south and west of Boston, 4-8 inches from Boston area northward, the bulk of it Friday night.

    Unofficial call for Monday: >4 Boston to Worcester line southward, <4 north of a Boston to Worcester line. Subject to change in either direction.

    Next blog will be posted this evening.

    1. It is the 18z…we always take that one with a grain of salt. At least when we want it to be wrong anyway. 🙂

    1. …sigh…as much as I love snow, I have no idea where I’m going to put the extra snow. We got about 34″ in Chelmsford. I’m toying with the idea of constructing an extension to the snowblower chute!!!!

        1. I think you called for a quick end to winter when March starts…correct me if I am wrong. If so, still the case?

    1. It’s coming OS. It’s every so slightly trending further north. We’ve seen this type of storm in the past where it starts out as a hit, then a miss and then back to a hit again. The slightest dig or buckle and we’re in for it. The latest GFS suggests a good 6-8 inches for 495 south and east with even more over the Cape.

  82. What is the call for Friday night and Sunday morning from MA down to Providence? I’d sure appreciate any info. Thank you!

    1. I’m going with 3-6 inches Boston south with 6 inches in Boston and 3 inches closer to Providence with regards to the Fri storm.

        1. DS, my gut tells me that is the absolute maximum they will receive. It’s more likely 4-5 inches that Boston sees but even that much is too much after all the snow the city received.

          1. Main streets (Comm Ave, Boylston, Tremont, etc.) are decent. But the neighborhood streets are such a mess. I have no idea what the solution is, but we need a faster snow REMOVAL operations for patterns like this.

            Feeling for all the plow operators out there!

  83. For the Sun night to Mon possibility, are we looking at super bowl parties being potentially affected or is it looking to start after the game?

  84. I just don’t trust setups like this next one. This is a storm that will be strengthening as it moves straight away from us, not parallel to our coast. I would favor a more progressive low, slightly slower in developing. And that, to me, seems to be all it would take to cut the NWS’s numbers in half.

    First and second half of the event combined, I would predict 3-4″ for Boston. 2″ Providence. 6″ near the NH border.

    1. I definitely agree that this has bust potential. There is more upside to the Monday storm however IMHO.

      1. Definitely agree about the Monday storm. Wouldn’t take much of a northward shift for a widespread 6″+.

        2. FWIW, I’m thinking lower end numbers of the snow ranges being shown.

          From an impact standpoint, my focus is on the temperature plunge tomorrow evening and the NW wind getting busy causing the resumption of blowing snow.

        3. I like the landscape, I think it looks beautiful.

          Driving, I dont like the lack of visibility around high snow piles ………… Backing in and out of parking areas is definitely more difficult and home parking has become more restrictive. That, I could live without.

  86. The latest CPC Outlook shows continued cold but dry for the second week of February. Do you agree with that TK?

  87. A certain local media person called the Monday storm “off” on Tuesday, “on again” yesterday, and “off again” today. Didn’t we talk about this?

    It looked like a glancing blow all 3 days. And people are talking about model inconsistency. Not really. The models that are putting the thing over or north of New England are models that have not been performing well, nor do I expect them to suddenly be “fine”.

    Obviously there are a range of possibilities but the most obvious conclusion is a track south of New England and not a direct hit. Strong high to the north. POSITIVE NAO, and very progress flow. That’s the story right now and has been for quite a while.

    1. These guys are full of CRAP!!!

      NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 2m2 minutes ago
      Around 3 inches of #Snow for the #Boston Area through tomorrow morning. Via the #SREF Model.

  89. Re: tomorrow night from NWS

    IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE
    SURFACE CYCLONE AND PULLS IT BACK BRIEFLY TOWARD EASTERN MA
    COASTLINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN AND RESULTS IN A ROBUST COMMA-HEAD DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MA POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY.

  93. http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVxVG1spUJK8Af.PBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTByZHI5MXByBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDNgRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–/RV=2/RE=1422608070/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.wunderground.com%2fweather-radar%2funited-states%2foh%2fcincinnati%2filn%2f/RK=0/RS=Jb0Ltnvo30yN61nNi3pPIPKzKfY-

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

    I wonder if this is the piece of upper level energy that closes off the 500 mb low and tries to briefly capture the developing coastal low.

    Link #2, water vapor : I wonder if thats the energy at the Indiana/Ohio border ?

    Link #1, Cincinnati, OH radar ….. near the above mentioned location and it has a bit of precip accompanying the possible disturbance.

        1. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
          I give up. That was centimeters Sorry all.

          Done posting links for tonight.

  96. Couple of inches in Boston from the redeveloping Low, but as close as Salem 6 inches could fall. And, parts of coastal Maine will be hit hard. Not quite a blizzard, but close to it along the coast near Bar Harbor.

    Nothing here from Monday’s system except flurries and snow showers, with an inch or two possible on the Cape and Islands. Strangely enough, that system may produce more snow than the blizzard did in places like Philadelphia and NYC.

    Midweek system on the 4th and 5th may fail to materialize. Models are all over the place at this point in time.

    The one certainty the coming week is several very cold nights.

  97. Agree OS! Have some faith Joshua. Just two weeks you were ready to give up on winter. And now look 🙂 Monday I agree is probably a miss but plenty more chances coming up.

  99. I have a question for you guys- I am flying back to boston from detroit on sunday around 4pm. According to various guidance, it will be snowing then- some models show 1-3 inches by then, others show 4-6. How much snow would it take to get the flight delayed?

  100. Eric Fisher tweet.

    @ericfisher: New ECMWF weeklies in…and I highly recommend booking a trip to Arizona. February is looking frigid. Absolutely frigid.

  103. Ryan Maue Tweet

    @RyanMaue: ECMWF model track of storm drops 6-12″ snow on Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philly, NYC, and Boston. But not DC any longer.

    1. And tomorrow it will be different I’m sure.

      I don’t get the point of the model tweets.

      “It’s this, oh now it’s this. Oh wait, now it’s this.”
      “It’s on, it’s off. It’s over under down and out!” 😛

  105. Definite trend back north with the models in the 0z suite for the Monday storm!

    0z Euro snowmap:
    http://i.imgur.com/aImJ11w.png

    0Z GFS snowmap:
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=254589

    0Z GFS Ensemble Mean snowmap:
    http://i.imgur.com/T1iG4Qn.png

    0z UKMET snowmap:
    http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-23831-1422604203.png

    Note all these snowmaps are cumulative and include whatever falls today. Not to mention, the NAM for what its worth also agrees with the storm position at 84 hours.

    GFS/Euro/UKMET would deliver up to a foot of snow between now and Monday night for areas along the Mass Pike and points south. I am not sure where you guys who got 24-30″ on the ground already would put that!

  106. I looked out and it was snowing pretty hard, so I got up.
    Looked at the radar and see virtually NOTHING around. 😀 😀
    AND the snow has let up to very light. Go Figure.

    Oh well, I’m up now

  107. To me, it looks as though today’s event has backed off considerably.
    Development “just” a tad too far off shore for anything significant.

    However, that leaves the door open for Monday’s system to sneak up here.

    Try this 06Z GFS snowmap on for size folks:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013006&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=102

    Here is the NAM snow map through 84 hours with it still coming down in buckets!!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013006&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Given Mark’s fantastic 0Z snowmaps, including the Euro and Ukmet, I’d say
    it’s GAME ON for Monday. Post-Super Bowl Super Powder Blizzzard!!!!1

  111. Good morning!! Coating everywhere from Franklin to North Attleboro from last night, looks like another coating this evening, then another light event on Monday, I believe this past week will be the snowiest week, and we will have more watchers and chances they will not be like we’ve had, I also got a feeling Tk will be right on with a early spring, More mets have joined that wagon, tk so far you have been pretty close with your winter outlook, keep up the great work.

    Also if any of you have social networks you see over and over again spring is not far away 🙂 enjoy your day everyone keep positive

    1. I so used to this Vicki, I can’t honestly tell you, BUT my sense is, this
      is the WORST I have seen them since the Blizzard of 78. Just BRUTAL!!!!!!

  113. A coating of snow out my window. Snow coming down very lightly.
    Its starting look like game on for Monday and maybe something else later next week. Meteorologist Gil Simmons had snow for Monday then for Thursday had the word Really with a question mark along with parade of storms.
    This is starting to feel like January 2011 with a snow threat every couple days.

  114. Looks like today’s event in mainly a bust. Kind of what I figured. These setups, while they can produce a moderate snowfall sometimes, are just so fickle that I think the better approach is to forecast less and adjust up if needed.

    Monday appears to be game on though. Still time for changes, but right now a moderate to major winter storm appears likely for SNE.

  115. WxWatcher I was already looking at the next storm threat. This is just a weak system. Bigger story is what comes tonight with wind chill advisories up for a good part of SNE. Bundle up if going out tonight.

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