Double Or Nothing?

324 Comments

7:43AM

SUMMARY…
Sometimes storms systems are straightforward and relatively easy to forecast, and sometimes they are quite the opposite. The one moving through the northeastern US is one of the tough ones, first to determine if we’d get significant accumulation from the first part of the system, which is weakening and elongated low pressure passing through during the day today, and second to determine who would get significant accumulation and who would get virtually nothing from the rapid redevelopment of the system off the coast tonight. The forecast that follows will spell out my conclusions. Once this complex system pulls away, it’s windy and very cold for the balance of Saturday and then less windy but still cold Sunday. A second storm threat comes Monday in the form of low pressure sliding out south of southern New England. The track of this system will determine how much of southeastern New England gets into a snow shield, and how much falls. More dry and very cold weather comes Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. A third storm threat comes Thursday but is too far away to go into any detail.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow, some mix/rain of Boston. Accumulation of a coating to 1 inch some areas. Highs in the 30s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable then N later in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow redevelops in eastern MA and southern NH, with a few snow showers elsewhere. Accumulation of 2-5 additional inches especially immediate Boston area northward into southeastern NH with some 6+ inch amounts possible northern Essex County MA into southeastern NH. Lows in the 10s. Wind N increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Blowing snow at times especially eastern areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers early then clearing. Highs around 20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 5. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow likely. Low 10. High 20.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Snow or mix possible. Low 25. High 35.

324 thoughts on “Double Or Nothing?”

  2. Gfs for Monday has .71 QPF with very cold temps at snow growth so ratios appear to be 15:1 maybe even 20:1. That would spell over a foot!!

  3. Thanks TK.
    This is third time in a week going back to last Saturday there has been 3 systems that gave snow. Before last Saturday we couldn’t buy a snow flake. My how times have changed.

    1. So is tk wrong regarding 2-5 for Boston tonight bust? Just trying to plan tonight. Anybody who knows please post .

      1. TK is likely to be right. There is less bust potential north and east of Boston closer to the center of storm redevelopment. However, if the storm redevelops further offshore, even those areas see less.

  7. To TK:

    I see your Tuesday forecast and want to know if you think lower temperatures are possible? I noticed 2 TV Mets with lows 9-10 degrees below yours. I am not saying they are right and in fact, I would prefer yours.

  8. Fwiw…Al Roker says 12″+ for Boston on Monday. The fact that the storm is fairly progressive, I don’t see quite that much, but we will see.

    1. It will be progressive but snow ratios will be high so it won’t take much QPF to drop 12 inches in Boston.

  9. I could deal with a few to several inches for Monday, but a foot?? That’s gonna be tough for some communities

  11. For Vicki from previous blog:

    Old Salty says:
    January 30, 2015 at 8:25 AM
    I am so used to this Vicki, I can’t honestly tell you, BUT my sense is, this
    is the WORST I have seen the streets since the Blizzard of 78. Just BRUTAL!!!!!!

  12. As much as I enjoy snow storms, I am not looking forward to shoveling there is no where to put the snow.

  13. As much as I enjoy snow storms, I am not looking forward to shoveling there is no where to put the snow.

  14. Tk, so your thinking is that today’s storm redevelops “just” close enough to push
    some snow into Eastern Regions.

    I’m not feeling it. I think most action is Northeast of our area and most especially down East Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

    We shall see.

    But exactly where, how fast, and how much it develops makes a HUGE difference
    on whether or not we see additional significant snow.

    As I said on previous blog, a miss here tonight perhaps opens the door for
    Monday. We shall see.

    All eyes to our immediate East tonight. Radar watching time for sure.

  15. Hmmm

    I am noticing areal coverage of snow increasing all over.
    I believe that “most” of our accumulation from today/tonight’s event
    comes during the day today.

    It is snowing here.

    Need to monitor.

  16. A light snow falling out my window now.
    The bigger story is going to be those wind chill values tonight. As I said in the previous blog if your going out tonight bundle up. Wind Chill Advisories up for a good part of SNE.

  19. My wife said the roads are a mess driving from JP to Roxbury where she works. Side roads are down to 1 lane and traffic is awful. She was surprised school was open bc of school buses and snow banks.

    1. Agree. Those school buses DESTROY traffic with this amount of snow around!

      I chose my route carefully this morning so I did NOT have a problem other
      than a very slight delay due to, yup you guessed it, School buses!

    2. Don’t know what radar site you are using, but the one I linked is set
      to a sensitive setting to better pick up lighter echoes. Thus what you said.
      Even with that, looks pretty good here.

  21. Visibility down to about 3/4 mile here. I have an excellent reference point,
    Mission Church, which is EXACTLY 2/3 of a mile from here. So this estimate is
    good.

  23. Snowing moderately in Manchester CT and accumulating. Looks like a quick shot though – maybe an inch and done here.

    NWS Taunton going with 0.3-0.5″ QPF at a 15:1 ratio for Sun night/Monday which would yield 5-8″.

    NWS Upton has similar thinking with 4-8″ but saying may need to up it to 5-10″

  27. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 6m6 minutes ago
    Light to moderate snow across Northern #CT/#RI & much of #MA will yield a coating to 2″, mainly on non paved surfaces. Rain south coast.

  28. I think were looking at a moderate snow event Monday. I don’t see this being a repeat of last Monday. Got to watch any shifts in future model runs as we saw with the blizzard any shift will make a big difference.

    1. Moderate? NO WAY!
      Monday is a HEAVY DUTY SNOW EVENT!
      Sure not like the Blizzard, but we’ll be looking at a few inches either side
      of a FOOT, perhaps even MORE. IT IS LOADED.

  32. It was snowing moderately here at work in Norwell for the last half hour or so. Just lightened up a bit in the past couple of minutes.

  33. Don’t have it keep going to far north. I don’t want to this turn into a mixorama or a rainorama. Rainorama is the last thing we need with all that snow.

  35. 12Z NAM produced a POTENT COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT
    and LOADS IT UP BIG TIME.

    Here is the snowmap at 84 hours and it IS NOT DONE at that time. Still several
    more inches to come.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Now let’s see if the GFS thinks the same way or the NAM is out to lunch.

    My feeling, based on previous runs of the other models, this is the REAL DEAL.

    WATCH OUT for MONDAY.

    1. I would NOT cut them in half. Knock 1/4 off maybe.
      Both the NAM and the GFS were NOT far off with snow totals for
      the blizzard (other than when the NAM lost it’s mind for NYC).

  38. Honestly with all this snow it’s going to be a disaster around here. Also schools going to be going until June 30th blah…

  40. Ya think this guy likes the Euro?

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    12z GFS coming out shortly. We’ll be convinced of nothing … and wait for the Euro (ECMWF) at 1 PM

    1. He was pretty good during the blizzard but that kind of statement and mindset is what caused the busted forecast in NYC. To completely discount a model run before its even occurred is just dumb.

        1. Not for nothing, but I could have obtained a PHD should I have chosen to do so. So does that make him smarter than I? I don’t think so. 😀

  41. For the Monday system that is as we know with the blizzard is based on 10:1 ratios. It going to be cold once again if you get 15:1 ratios you could easily get a foot maybe a little more even if the storm system is progressive.
    Hopefully this time I won’t be left out of the big snows. This is not set in stone but an out to sea solution looks very unlikely at this time.

  42. REALITY CHECK TIME!

    Yes the pockets of moderate snow were accurately forecast by most short range guidance.

    The snow amounts being predicted are a combo of today AND tonight.

    Despite what many may be saying, Monday is not a lock as a big storm by any means right now. The impact of tonight’s snow locally has no bearing on what we see (or don’t see) on Monday. The strength and movement of the low pressure center responsible for tonight’s snow over the next 3days does indeed have some influence on th next system, however.

    No I not going for nothing on Monday. The low pressure wave will impact SNE. The degree of impact is yet to be determined.

  43. Doing virtually nothing here at the moment and I continue to say the radar looks worse than whats falling from the sky, at least here anyways. Redevelopment or not, this batch amounts to very little.

  44. Those NAM totals are definitely overdone to some extent and a track that far north is also in question at this time. NAM is also still out of its sweet spot range .

    1. I don’t know Mark. Take a look at the 6Z GFS. Although the track wasn’t
      as far North, snow totals were similar.

      Dying to see 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro. 😀

    1. Back to some moderate snow here. Not amounting to much on the ground except to make the snow banks white again 🙂 Very pretty outside right now.

  47. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 4m4 minutes ago
    Looks like I’ll be making another snow forecast map this afternoon. Chances of a Monday snowstorm ‘hit’ are looking high.

  51. I think it’s funny in a way that just because 12 guidance shows something and the system is still 3 days out that it suddenly becomes a lock. That is not how meteorology works.

  52. Good lord, so far, the 12Z GFS is taking mondays system up the spine of the Appalacians! Lets hope there will be a coastal in there somewhere

  57. We have model agreement with the 2 American Models.
    Let’s see if the foreign models join in. The Ukmet and Euro were all aboard
    the SNOW train on the 0z runs. IF they waiver, it would have to give one pause.
    IF they are on board, well it WILL be SNOWMAGGEDON!!!!

  58. Timing looks good as far as not interrupting super bowl parties as looks to begin around or after midnight, but but commutes monday could be affected.

  59. You look at that GFS run another widespread double digit snowfall totals. Will be interesting to see what the snow ratios will be. Lot of model runs to go but clearly were going hear something from this storm system on Monday.

    1. From what i understand, instantweathermaps algorithm takes snow ratios into account, these are not assumed 10:1

      2. Correct, NOT 10:1.
        At one more JMA said that there algorithm was full of crap.
        So who knows. All I can say is that they were NOT all
        that far off for the Blizzard.

  60. Regardless of the outcome details…. guess which model was first to call Monday’s threat.

    Yup, the GFS… a real long time ago. Someone want to let Ryan know? 😉

    1. Here’s guessing even that one will come farther North. It’s in the cards.

      We go from no snow to so much snow we’re choking to death in the stuff!

  64. Jimmyjames, I saw you mention that at the blizzard of 2015 ratios were 10:1. I thought it will be more since it was really cold? I also read somewhere that because of the winds, ratios were not going to be that high regardless of the temperature. Hmmm I wonder why

    1. Hi Kane… What I meant to say is I wonder if the ratio’s for the Monday event will be closer to 15:1 since just like the blizzard
      the airmass will be quite cold.

  65. Winter storm watch will be put up this afternoon. Don’t mess with the GFS right now, retrac and I were texting about it.

  66. It has stopped snowing here right now. One last batch to go through coming into from Hudson River Valley and then this is done. Will see if this is appetizer before the main course on Monday.

  69. Monday is game on, but I don’t see the 12-18″ the NAM shows verifying. A foot in the jackpot zone, sure, but this is still looking too progressive for much more.

    Ace, you commented on the Thursday system and that one grazes us with light snow on the GFS but oh so close to a bigger hit as well.

  73. so im not going to put it on here since this is a weather blog and it is a bit crued but marshawn and Gronk played mortal combat its on cbssports.com

  74. Hi all, just want to extend a thank you to all that participate in this blog. I have been a long time reader and depend heavily on the forecast for my line of work. I have found that the most reliable information comes from WHW.
    I run a snow and ice management team at the top of the hill in Roslindale. When I last wrote TK, I told him that I looked forward to sharing some photos from the storm, unfortunately my iphone didn’t fair well during the storm and, very literally, barely had time to read the blog nevermind contribute.
    Now that I have my first post under my belt, I look forward to contributing some on-site reports during storms, and hopefully some pictures of our crazy snow removal process.

    Thanks again for all the great reading and weather info!

  75. Statistical/probability issue: Have a problem with some of the forecasts that state per Friday, Jan 30, that on Monday, Feb 2 there’s a 100% chance of snow. No, no, no. However much I like snow and like to see a “100% chance of snow,” it is off base to state 72 hours in advance that we have a 100% chance of anything, let alone a snowstorm. I’d much rather use words such as “likely” or “highly likely.” Between now and Sunday night/Monday a lot can happen. I think you’re asking for it as a met when you assert without qualification that there’s a 100% chance of anything 72 hours in advance. I don’t even think it’s prudent 24 hours in advance to use the “100% chance” number. I’ve seen storms like this be complete misses enough times in my life to know that declaring with certainty that something is going to happen is not wise. My rant for the day.

  78. NWS still calling for 50% chance of snow Monday.

    It is TWC that says 100% chance of snow Sun night and Monday. They have even thrown accumulations in there (3-5″ sunday night and 5-8 on Monday”) for good measure. This is for northern CT.

  79. Pete B tweet

    @pbouchardon7: Hmmm…much consternation here for Monday storm. Super cold air + plenty of moisture = a foot of snow for many. #thereisaidit

        2. Yeah not gonna happen. He actually called the last storm early and did well with it. I agree with Pete on this one. Cold temps, lots of moisture and high ratios= lots of snow. Would not be surprised if QPF jumps even more that we are talking 20 inches somewhere.

          1. You shut that down!!! I will never leave my house again if that happens. 😉

            Think 20 would be a heck of a stretch. A foot? Maybe not a stretch, if you’re just basing thoughts on current model runs, which will undoubtedly change.

          2. I thought tk said you usually don’t get big back to back storms. If we get two 20 inch storms in a week I don’t know. I’m not buying it on Friday.

  80. Just like we were in a “snowless” trend, we’re now in a snow trend.
    Drop the models, it’s gonna snow Monday and the week after and the week after right to March

  81. As the EURO runs …..

    I’m not fully buying in yet, until what we are seeing today is repeated again tomorrow.

    This is a storm sliding east-northeast and because of that motion, it wouldnt take much for it to miss south.

    Also, with very cold, dry air to the north ….. the northern precip shield will be attacked and probably will not be as productive as what is being shown.

    Again, 24 hrs more validation needed for my liking.

  82. Euro coming in very similar to nam and gfs. Tracking right over benchmark. Don’t disagree Tom about northern shield but that won’t impact sne. It will actually help keeping ratios high.

    2. As mentioned by others, the 24 hr increments drive me crazy …..

      I literally was just flip-flopping btwn the 2 runs (72 and 96) to get the center of the lows position and taking the edge of a piece of paper to try to connect the two locations to get a track.

      And I was then trying to determine if that went over the benchmark.

      I didnt come up with a confident answer. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      It could be the benchmark or a bit further south.

  84. 12z Euro still pretty far south. On a 10:1 ratio the 6″ line extends a little north of the Pike. Cape is the jackpot on that run. Adjusted for ratios though it would be a general 8-12″+ for most of Mass. I would agree with TK in not locking in a major storm for Monday. It’s certainly possible, but this far out to be throwing out a foot as a guarantee is unwise. I think we may see this trend back farther south, and as Tom said dry air will be an issue.

    2. Your map is very different to the Eurowx.com map I posted above.

      I also don’t agree pretty far south – looks like a benchmark track to me.

      1. It is pretty close to the benchmark, but as depicted there isn’t much northward component to the storm’s motion. As TK has pointed out, the benchmark is a myth. Every storm is different. It depends on storm strength, motion, and shape. Now that storm on the Euro would still be good for at least several inches in Mass, but any further south and I think dry air would chew up the precip shield, something not well modeled by the models.

    3. I also don’t think its that far out. We are less than 72 hours to start time and that when most models become more accurate. What I look for at this stage is QPF numbers vs. a storm coming. A storm is coming the question is track and how much precip.

  89. Thanks for the snow map Hadi.

    Well, I like the sharp gradient part.

    But, thats at the border of northern Massachusetts. Red flag right there to me.

    Its not like that gradient is up in the white mtns or something.

    More runs and more info needed on this one. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  90. Tim Kelly tweet

    @SurfSkiWxMan: Sunday Midnight to Sunset Monday.
    Close to an inch an hour.
    About 18 hours.
    RT @danryan06 Any idea what time it will hit yet?

  91. Some perspective from Dave Epstein: @growingwisdom: I’m hearing a lot of crazy numbers around Monday’s storm. Right now it just looks plowable and anything else is speculation.

  92. Good news. The 12z ECMWF has nearly identical QPF to the 12z GFS for Sunday Night / Monday. I can never make a forecast unless the ECMWF blesses the GFS….Both at about 0.7 melted at Boston.

      1. I am being a smart a**. To all those ECMWF Acolytes…I just got back to town from the west coast and hardly looked at any weather data in the past 48 hours and I don’t make up forecasts in 20 minutes based on model to model QPF data and snowfall maps…

        1. Nor do some here. You can’t post everything so it’s easier to post the basic and simple stuff for most.

          1. Actually, most of us post model output all over the place. We give our thoughts on those maps, like how much snow that particular run would produce IF it were to verify etc. Most of us when venturing a forecast, it is with a great deal of thought.

    1. Couldn’t find one OS, sorry. NWS in their updated discussion though says it is more amplified, stronger and further north than the rest of the model envelope.

        1. You know is much as I think it is mostly useless it did a pretty good job with the two previous events. See I can evolve my thinking on a model…

          HRRR for you OS

  96. I dont think I can take the operational run of the 12z EURO seriously.

    Good gracious, look at day 8 and day 9.

    Its like the whole country switches to May weather.

    Why do I recall someone quoting Eric Fisher earlier, commenting in regards to the EURO weeklies that going into Feb, it would be frigid ….

  97. Gee, I’m Really surprised at this. NOT!

    *** WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ***

    SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXITING
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS DRY SLOT IS NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THUS STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED FLURRIES. AS MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT SECONDARY LOW/CYCLOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD PER GOOD PRES FALLS OVER THIS AREA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW NORTHWEST. THUS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

    AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT…LATEST 12Z GUID INCLUDING THE EC SUGGEST COMMA-HEAD SNOWS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS TONIGHT INTO SAT AM WILL BE OVER CAPE ANN AND CAPE COD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE…HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE… EAST OF HYANNIS. THUS WILL DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX TO AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES TO ESSEX AND CAPE COD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD SEE SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT INTO SAT AM
    OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES. FARTHER WEST INTO RI/CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL.

  98. 12Z Euro QPF for Monday:

    Nantucket: 0.97″
    Islip: 0.96″
    NYC: 1.03″
    Danbury: 0.96″
    Philly: 1.02″
    Boston: 0.69″
    Hartford: 0.87″
    Providence: 0.81″

  99. Euro does lose the storm for next Thursday……the storm is still there off the SE coast but it tracks well south and OTS.

  103. If you notice, my forecast #’s for tonight were below Winter Storm Warning levels for northeastern MA. 😉

    1. Less than 3 inches can probably be adjusted to less than 1 inch.

      This is how you handle on-the-edge situations. We knew this would be one from the start and there was no definitive call even right into today.

      In fact anyone who says they knew 100% how it was going to happen without solid scientific evidence to back it up is lying. 😀

      I had no real idea how this thing was going to evolve and I’m still not 100% on it. 6+ inch amounts may still come very very close, even if they don’t occur over land. That is a near, near miss.

  105. Pardon the raising of my voice for a moment, but CAN SOMEBODY TELL ME WHY TIM K. WOULD TWEET SOMETHING LIKE “1 INCH AN HOUR, 18 HOURS”???

    People once asked me if I was he because of my nickname (TK). Absolutely not. 😛

      1. Yeah. My hair almost spiked itself again…

        (I had a spikey hairstyle for about 30 years before I grew the top out a couple years ago) 😉

  106. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 6m6 minutes ago
    Significant snow likely Monday…much more on NewsCenter 5 5-6:30pm #wcvb

      1. Absolutely, especially since “significant” can be defined broadly. There will be enough snow to plow in portions of the region, in all likelihood.

      2. I say it here more times but look at what Harvey said above and that’s why he is way above all the other tv mets , all of them.

        1. That statement doesn’t make him above all others. He’s on par with Barry easily. But I won’t take away his very much deserved respect.

          I’m not afraid to disagree with him and have many times. 🙂

          1. He’s clearly not always right. No one is. 😀

            And I agree he’s on par with Barry.

            I just love the way Barry presents the forecast.
            I love his enthusiasm. The only negative I have is that he tends to “hug” the Euro.

            1. He has told me himself it is his favorite model and once upon a time it was more reliable than it is now. But up to him what he choose to use for guidance.

              I’m not loyal to any model. I’m loyal to trying to make the best forecast I can. 🙂 And I’m sure Barry and others are as well. But we know some that hug models so much you can read a reverse imprint of the output on their faces. 😛

        1. Oh Bellvue Ben. Didn’t see that at all.

          Welcome again Ben. Is that Bellvue Hill, highest point
          in the City of Boston. Probably the snowiest section
          of the City. 😀

  109. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago
    UKMET 17-km global model drops 6-12-inches of snow. Models mostly agree so that means exactly what again?@weatherbell

    1. If you’re looking for an answer, Ryan, I’m not telling you. Figure it out yourself. 😉

  111. When does a storm start Sunday night/Monday? Can we all get home safely from our Super Bowl parties following the Patriots’ big win?

    2. Best I can determine 3 days out is around 4ish in the morning Monday.
      That will need to be tweaked as we get closer. Right now I’d say no problems with Super Bowl parties unless you over do it, pass out and awaken to snow. 😀

    1. Thank you so much. Overall people were smart and stayed home and off the roads. From my perspective, it was much safer for moving snow during this “blizzard” than in ’13.

  116. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    ECMWF EPS ensemble mean is 6-12” along entire latitude swath from Chicago to NYC. Cold air & ratios suggest taking “the over”

  119. Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan · 3h 3 hours ago
    Monday storm has ingredients like none other so far.
    Energy from TROPICAL Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Siberia.
    Forecasts will ramp up

    2. Yeah. Just because the cold air came from Siberia and the moisture came from 3 oceans… It means NOTHING. AT ALL.

  121. I am a snow lover, so I will take whatever we get, but do the storms have to happen when I am working? I only work 2 days a week, you’d figure we could get one on the other 5 days!

  124. AND HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH A STORM.
    GOING DOWN ALL THE GUIDANCE EVER KNOWN.
    LIKE A DRIFTER I AM LOST ABOUT THIS STORM.
    SO I`VE MADE UP MY MIND.
    I`M ENSEMBLE BLENDING THIS TIME.
    SO HERE WE GO AGAIN.

  125. Joe Bastardi Tweet.
    For NYC and SNE, storm Monday looks much like Feb 1967 storm though different origin Should tie or beat Blizzard 15 on NESIS scale.
    Anybody here know about Feb 1967 storm he is referring to?

  126. Tk or anyone…haven’t been following the last several hours..any change to tonight’s additnal snow on Woburn area? Thanks.

  127. Once bitten twice shy?

    @ryanhanrahan: Boston NWS: “Enough weighting to go with winter storm watch” / New York NWS: “uncertainty and lower confidence… held off on watch” – UGH

  129. Open up the hazards page on the NWS site and you will fine …..

    A winter weather advisory for Cape Cod and SE NH.

    A winter storm warning in ME.

    A winter storm watch for a portion of southern New England.

    Btwn the winter storm watch and the Cape winter weather advisory is a high wind watch.

    And a wind chill watch for western parts of New England.

    Um ………. All valid, but perhaps the WSW is unnecessary in the current period, because that is so confusing. The reason for the winter storm watch was well explained in the pm discussion and I understand the reasoning behind it, but given the need for the advisories tonight and early tomorrow, inserting it in there makes the map overwhelming to process ………… In my opinion.

    1. I think its important to alert the public on a Super Bowl weekend. Also storm coming in on a Monday, people don’t pay as much attention to weather forecasts on the weekend. Add the dangerous situation if we get 12+ to the snow pack we have, thus I think the watch is very warranted IMO

  130. It’s no surprise that we’re in for it again. Many areas from the NH border south will see 12+ inches of snow. Obviously, there is plenty of time for this to change. This particular storm is not quite as much of a given as the blizzard as cold dry air could shunt the storm a bit further south.

  132. Is there a way to find out what snow totals have been in Woburn Ma in say, the past ten years? The internet is a BIG place. Any info would be helpful, thanks in advance!

    2. I may be able to pull some of that together for you but it will take a little bit of work.

  133. PB on whdh said something very interesting.

    Boston, north shore and south shore could see 12-18″ on Monday but because of the fluff factor and the air between the snow molecules, by Tuesday the accumulation will be squashed down to roughly 8″.

  134. I’ll toss in my 2 cents. I find a lot of the tweets (Tim Kelley, for instance; but also Joe Bastardi) premature regarding a possible winter storm more than two days from now. Analogues with previous storms, huh? I think that analogues are appropriate after storms have hit to compare notes so to speak, but analogues are next to useless before a storm hits. Too much uncertainty, too many wild-cards. Plus, every storm behaves differently.

    There is quite a bit of uncertainty with Monday’s event. I think Alisonarod mentioned the very cold, dry air. This may shunt this storm so far south that it barely impacts us at all. In fact, my inclination would be to wait at least another 24 hours before declaring that a storm is definitely coming. Likely, yes, but far from certain.

  135. Not pleased with the fact they are throwing #’s out on Friday night for a Monday system. Will they ever learn?

    I call bad move on ALL of the TV guys for that one, because you know damn well the only thing that’s going to stick in most people’s minds is the TOP numbers that were either said or shown.

    They may be sorry they said that come tomorrow…

  136. And NOW they are starting with the model totals on TV again…

    IT
    DOES
    NOT
    WORK
    THIS
    WAY
    PEOPLE!

    WAKE THE HELL UP!

    1. And I’m talking about the media, not the bloggers. I don’t care what kind of guesses you make here.

      2. But….and yes I have trouble giving up….why does it matter what others do since we know why they do it. This is the blog that matters.

        1. You have a VALID point. I just wish the majority of the general public knew how to discern that crap from the real stuff. 🙂

          1. Sadly I think too much of the general public likes drama ……but we know now to discern so perhap we lead the way ?? And in addition let’s write to the media heads

  137. Hi TK,

    I see we are sharing a frustrated brain at the moment…

    Would it be ok to say there is a strong probability of plowable snowfall impacting the area early hours of Monday morning into the late afternoon / evening on Monday with highest amounts possible along and south of the Mass Pike and to the north of that line moderate amounts are more likely? I think that would prepare and inform pretty well 60 hours out.

    BTW the 1967 analog Bastardi is referring to is a decidedly different storm than the one currently progged for Monday. No idea what the hell he is talking about…

    1. 100% agree.
      And I have no idea what J.B. is talking about most of the time. If you believe him we had a really cold December here in the Northeast. It was cold……. in my standup freezer.

  138. Kudos to TK as he nailed the idea of a more active stormy pattern beginning January 25th. Pretty much right on.

    I was think 3-7 days later for that onset, but had idea of a real active period of 4-5 storms in a 15 day period. Of course I was thinking the big one would be ~20″ or so not ~25″ +.

    Talked to climatologist I know today. He assures me the LER at Logan was not 23:1 on Monday / Tuesday. He is estimating it at 14:1. Climo is 11:1 at Logan for this time of year. If the storm had come in at Climo to 12:1 Logan would have been in the 18-21″ range as opposed to 24″

  139. Oldsalty can you keep me posted on conditions up that way. Going out for a few till I get called in. Thank you.

  140. Pete:

    “There’s too much cold air over us. It will transform the storm and make for a dusty, dry, powdery snowfall. Think snow globe snow. Champagne powder in the Rockies. So what follows on Tuesday is a compression of that snow as it shakes out and drifts on a gusty wind. Translated: although we may see near a foot or more, it turns to just a few inches by Tuesday as all the air is sucked out of the settled snow.

    So…my thinking is that from Boston/Worcester south, a good foot to 15” is possible. North of that line, 6-10 inches is possible – up into Southern NH. “

  141. A foot or more very bold statement I believe as of now when there is still uncertainty with the exact track of this potential key word potential winter storm on Monday.

        1. I know I feel like it’s to early. I don’t think this ends up a big one and that’s just a guess.

  143. Blog is awfully quiet tonight considering all the excitement around what might happen in a few days.

  144. c/o Eric Fisher – I am on the road this evening, but may be worth a watch for those near a TV:

    @ericfisher: Woo boy the 00z NAM loves us some solid snowfall for Monday. Talking about our storm chances @myTV38 at 10p and @cbsboston at 11p.

  146. No snow hadi yet. I think 2inches for Boston tonight. Wind is cranking here and man has that temp dropped.

  149. It has been snowing here in Woburn nonstop but often very light for over 15 hours. Had about 1.5 inch the entire event but a whole lot of blowing snow since 10PM.

  150. 0z Euro snowmap:
    http://i.imgur.com/jMm4xMi.png

    Still a big hit with 12″+ for most of SNE, but trending even further north like the CMC. Mix line now into NYC metro area and CT shoreline.

    UKMET is even further north with a track over SNE and changeover. This model though continues to be at the northern envelope of solutions.

    Hopefully this trend does not continue….
    Hopefully this northward trend

  151. BTW to REMIND YOU. I am not anti-storm for Monday. We’re going to get something. I was not and continue to not be in favor of the TV guys talking #’s too early. And IT WAS too early on Friday. I’ve already had people coming up to me tonight and saying “So, I saw on TV we’re getting 13 inches on Monday. Is that true?”

    No. Wrong. That’s NOT what they are supposed to be coming away from watching these weather forecasts thinking. They get a number in their mind and suddenly it’s all about that number. Not about the fact that if we get 4, 8, 12, 16 inches that it is going to be accompanied by increasing wind and very cold air. The focus here should be on the potential for a significant snowfall with very cold temperatures. But media is so fixated on exact amounts that the overall message gets lost.

    The public as of Friday night for a Monday storm only needs to know to prepare for the possibility of a significant snow at the start of the week. We can start talking about numbers and specifics starting inside 48 hours and moving forward. There is too much uncertainty outside of that, and I don’t care how many models agree.

    How many models agreed on clobbering New England back a few Winters ago with 1 to 2 feet of snow even though the pattern supported an eastward-moving sheered storm that clobbered the Mid Atlantic? All of them. And 1 to 2 INCHES of snow later, everybody was crying foul.

    It happened again with other set-ups after that. And lesson not-learned apparently. I’m sorry folks, but there’s no denying it. There’s a difference between saying a storm is a lock because you want it to happen versus using science to determine that it will happen. I put in many years of study to learn this and other things in this field and I’m sticking to doing it the right way, which means… I’ll be ready to talk about #’s during the day Saturday. I just wanted to make this point, because it’s important. It’s not about being the first to call it, it’s about making the best call you can when it’s responsible to do so.

    🙂

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