The Week Ahead

544 Comments

7:17AM

SUMMARY…
Let’s get right to it. The stormy pattern is producing another one for us to start the week here in southern New England as low pressure moves eastward just barely south of the South Coast Monday. This will be a high impact event with heavy snow to start the morning, a mix/change line moving into southern areas and just about up to near Boston for a while, a big temperature contrast from north to south, a flash freeze in areas that were milder and had some sleet/ice/rain during a portion of the storm, some coastal flooding concerns, and strong winds upon departure of the system by Monday night. The Arctic cold that follows this storm will be short lived but last through Tuesday before a temperature recovery just ahead of another front on Wednesday. That front may bring some snow showers Wednesday. It’s still a little unclear how things play out exactly at the end of the week and into the weekend, but we will be near a frontal boundary and some additional very cold air so there may be some additional snow threats.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, through midday except a change to sleet/freezing rain/rain across the South Coast and Cape with some mixing with sleet working north toward Boston before the change/mix line goes back to the south during the afternoon with light to moderate snow all areas. Temperature ranging from the 10s southern NH and north central MA to the 30s to near 40 Cape Cod and Islands before falling later. Wind NE to N in areas northwest of Boston but NE to E for a time to the south of Boston increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts, shifting to N all areas later with gusts to 30 MPH inland and over 40 MPH near the coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow ends west to east, clouds break later. Total snow accumulation 1-3 inches South Coast, 3-6 inches just inland from South Coast, 6-12 inches elsewhere with pockets of higher amounts especially north and west of Boston. Areas of blowing snow. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 10s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.

544 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thank you TK.

    Well, it won’t take much to reach the low end of your range.
    We have to be close to 4 inches already!

    1. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
      RT @KristyM9: @MattNoyesNECN Mendon has 5-6 inches right now and coming down hard
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites
      Reply Retweet Favorite
      More
      Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m

  4. Thank you TK as always! How do you top a Monday with a Super Bowl victory and a snowstorm. Great to be a new englander!!!

      1. That could be one ob that will be fascinating to watch in several hrs.

        I get the feeling they could too out around 40F, maybe even a bit higher and what kind of temp crash are they going to experience …..

  6. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 29s30 seconds ago
    Warm air aloft reaches most of Cape Cod 9-10 AM, SE MA to sleet/freezing rain by late morning. Near/north of Pike, never makes it for most.

    1. And, the current radar is kind of showing this, I think …..

      Just north of the Mass/NH border …. The snow isnt particularly heavy, probably because the overrunning isnt as strong.

      The heaviest snow is Boston and south to about Duxbury points west ……. thats where the darkest green, fuzzy echoes are.

    1. Pete has always said that, if it is only six more weeks for this area, that is good news for those who do not like winter.

  9. Chicago received 19.3 inches from this storm. Not sure how much of that may have
    been Lake Enhanced.

    1. That’s a lot for Chicago.

      My office is open today, which borders on insane. For me it’s not hard. I walk to work. For all the others it’s extremely inefficient. Their commutes will be very long and unsafe in some cases. Many can simply work from home. Oh well, I’m not the boss.

      I basically gave up on the Patriots last night. Turned off the TV. [You can tell, I’m not an optimistic type]. Then decided to turn it back on just in case. Wow! That was the most thrilling end to a game: both the interception and the miraculous catch.

      1. Don’t hit the OFF button for this storm.
        I think it “may” over achieve! WOW!!! is all I can say so far.
        It is DELIVERING BIG TIME!

      2. I’m not the giver upper type; however, I have to say with all due respect – and I sincerely mean it – with this team’s history, I don’t understand giving up on them ever.

  12. What time is it suppose to end? Looks like the backside is approaching eastern PA. This will make it end sooner, unless the precipitation to our south doesn’t miss us completely

  14. Mix line moving into Southern portions of CT right now. Still snowing at a good clip where I am but that mix line looks to make it to the Hartford area. Temperatures where I am have actually lowered the past couple hours. Wind chills tonight going to be in that negative territory much like we had Friday night.

  15. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the EURO has a BIG time snow storm for
    overnight the 5th into the 6th!!

  19. NOT liking wind direction, but we’re not going to get a favorable wind
    direction until the center reaches our longitude.

  20. Just some surface related observations (this wont determine snow vs sleet).

    Logan’s wind has been 070 for a while and I dont think it will veer anymore. In fact, my guess is it will soon slowly begin to back.

    Plymouth is 080 and its really not until you get to the Cape that you get to 090 and the islands are at 110.

    So, Logan COULD get to 32F, but at 070, I think thats going to be tough.

    I think the Marshfield area might be where the surface 32F line gets to.

    1. I think you have nailed it. actually DROPPED 1 tenth of a degree here. 😀
      Sure that doesn’t mean anything.

    2. Not sure what this means for us, other than perhaps the track is a wee bit
      farther South?

      Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago
      Significance of GFS 6 hr bust. Temps 26-30 where it was supposed to be 34-38. Freezing rain takes over, not rain NYC

  21. REcent Logan obs had vis at 0.12 mile!!!!
    Currently only at .25 mile. Gee it’s lightened up considerably. 😀

  22. Need some help.

    I am at the office and probably going to send people home early afternoon so I have 2 questions. 1) What time will THE FREEZE arrive? 2) How much will the temps drop and how fast?

    Thanks.

    1. Flash freeze arrives sometime around 3 ish give or take.
      Temps will drop RAPIDLY into the TEENS for CERTAIN.

      I would NOT be surprised to see the temperature drop occur a bit sooner
      than that.

      Tough to give you anything better.

      TK? TOM? anyone else?

  25. Old Salty you were mentioning that storm threat later in the week some our meteorologists here in CT are already looking at that as the next POTENIAL snow threat.

  26. It’s snowing and sleeting in Attleboro, at the train station, about 4 inches, haven’t measured yet

  27. Eric Fisher retweeted
    WBZ NewsRadio ‏@wbznewsradio 49m49 minutes ago
    RT @RochieWBZ: Don’t be surprised if #Patriots #SuperBowl Championship parade happens Tuesday…starting around 10am. #WBZ #Champions

    Eric Fisher retweeted
    WBZ NewsRadio ‏@wbznewsradio 49m49 minutes ago
    RT @RochieWBZ: Don’t be surprised if #Patriots #SuperBowl Championship parade happens Tuesday…starting around 10am. #WBZ #Champions

    1. Eric Fisher retweeted
      WBZ NewsRadio ‏@wbznewsradio 17m17 minutes ago
      #boston Duck Tour prez tells WBZ a parade in snow will be a first for them & no trip into the Charles. #Patriots #SB49

  30. I think storm is exceeding some people’s expectations. MOST of my friends had to commute to work today, which is dangerous and crazy!!!

  32. Jeremy Reiner retweeted
    NWS Taunton Skywarn ‏@WX1BOX 2m2 minutes ago
    All sleet reported in the new bedford/fairhaven area.

    1. Yup, its coming ….. (aloft).

      But, this has been a great dump of snow and I think another 1-3 is coming before any brief changeover (well, for Marshfield, anyway).

  33. Its about 18 degrees where I am. As Meteorologist Gil Simmons said earlier the warm air in the upper levels is getting in and seeing that transition. The timing here in CT with the changeover pretty close to what was foreacasted.

  35. An opinion on a temp crash time …..

    It depends ….

    If the coastal front holds, then I think that 3pm or around mid afternoon, which OS mentioned sounds really good.

    That wildcard is if, at the surface, a punch of low level cold air slides down in easternmost Mass from coastal NH and coastal ME. Then, a quick temp drop could come earlier, while temps aloft continue to reach their mildest point. That could be really dicey because you could have sleet or ice with low level temps WAY below 32F.

    1. Yup. That’s why I said I wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped earlier than that.
      We’ll have to watch for that.

      Curently 27.3 here and ever so slowly creeping up.

      1. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
        8:50 AM: Sleet line now located from Willimantic, CT to Providence, RI to Manomet, MA. #mawx

          1. Going to be very close.

            One never knows in these situations. Whenever I think NO way, Wham it’s in here. When I think it will get here it doesn’t. 12Z NAM has the line
            right over Boston for a couple of hours. Just don’t know.

            It would actually be better IF it stayed away.

            Tk seems to think it will fall just short of the city.

            Close close close.

            Sorry I couldn’t help more. thanks

  37. Repost … I got some help from OS (thank you!) … anyone else want to chime in?

    I am at the office and probably going to send people home early afternoon so I have 2 questions. 1) What time will THE FREEZE arrive? 2) How much will the temps drop and how fast?

    Thanks.

  40. 28 here in Hingham. Winds between N and NE here. Still all snow and still fluffy but not as much as before. At least 6 inches and still coming down hard. Afternoon commute is going to be a bust. I’m heading into work in about 30 minutes or so. Heard from a coworker that the business office parking lot wasn’t even plowed as of a half hour ago.

  41. I admit I haven’t been following maps much this week but I thought this was a west-to-east storm? Radar looks like the usual up from the south storm?

  42. I don’t get why so many companies are open AND expecting people to come in. Don’t get it at all. The height of the storm is the work hours…and it’s better for everyone if less people are out.

  45. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago
    Some top totals so far this morning: Lunenburg 8.1″, Westminster 7.8″, Ashby 7.5″, Holliston 5.5″, Framingham 5″, Mansfield 5″.

  47. 6″new on the ground in Coventry CT and only 14 degrees yet we have gone over to sleet…ugh. That mix line is advancing north quickly towards the Pike.

    1. Hard to say. My Guess will be from whatever it was to about 15.
      So if it’s 32 before the crash it will drop to about 15 in a short time.
      that’s 17 degrees in AN hour or so.

  50. 1st sign of temperature crash from Gloucester

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    RT @PeterLovasco: @MattNoyesNECN close to 6″ now temp dropped 5degrees now 23°F very heavy snow … #GlostahMA drifts 2ft …

  51. Hi Mark…. I am sleeting to here in Watertown. It was snowing at a good clip earlier before the change over.
    We may have something else to watch later this week.

      1. Afraid so ….. Still 50% snow.

        Lots of precip to go, based on NYC radar.

        Concerned, in Marshfield, a bit about a transition to freezing rain. Sleet would be fine. We usually never get freezing rain, but, I stepped outside and its still pretty cold, so, I could see some in this rare instance.

  54. The 6-12 covers areas to the south deeper in the mix zone. It is fine how it is. 🙂

    Stay safe!

  55. Today goes to show even if the temps are in the teens if entire column is not cold and there is some warm air aloft you can get sleet and freezing rain. Freezing rain the absolute worst. We saw here in CT couple Sundays ago with what a tenth of an inch of ice could do. There are some indications down in NYC area southern CT could get in that 2 3 tenths of ice accumulation.

  56. Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
    Matt Nowak ‏@Butterfish279 10m10 minutes ago
    @SurfSkiWxMan Pelting sleet in Raynham now.

  57. Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 8m8 minutes ago
    .@StevePetyerak just told me that 747 aircraft carrying Pats family members, staff, and media was diverted to #JFK. Details fluid.

    1. I’m going to be waiting for them at gillette when they get home later this evening 🙂 there will be 1,000’s there I can’t wait 🙂

  59. This doesn’t seem right to me.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    RT @jeffwar1: @MattNoyesNECN Holliston,MA going back and forth between heavy snow and snow/sleet now. 7.0 inches on ground

    1. I can verify, they must be on the holliston/medway line (south) vs. the holliston/ashland line (south).

      I have about 7″ here as well, but hearing sleet pellets bounce off our aluminum siding here and there. So the mix is moving towards the pike…

  60. Question on flash freeze and appreciate all of info given. Is Wellesley/Framingham area expected to see rain? If there is no rain, can I assume there is no flash freeze or am I incorrect?

    1. Vicki.

      I do NOT believe Framingham sees rain. It is possible that it could mix with or perhaps change to sleet for a short period. Thus no flash freeze for Framingham.
      You’re already frozen there. 😀

      1. We are frozen. Daughter was just out shoveling and said it felt a bit gravelly but still snow. Is the same for Wellesley? Son in law at work there and trying to figure when to let folks go home.

        Thank you VERY MUCH, OS

  63. GOOD LUCK WITH THIS!!!!!!!!!!

    Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7 3m3 minutes ago
    Pats parade Tuesday at 11am……Sunny skies with temps near 12° at 11am Tuesday. Layer up for the champs! #7nenws

    Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 4m4 minutes ago
    Mayor Walsh announces Super Bowl victory Parade tomorrow at 11AM. Begins at Pru, ends at City Hall. Good luck seeing over snow banks.

    1. I know the players are eager to get started with the off-season plans and be with their friends and family – logistically it makes sense. From a public safety standpoint I am not sure it is the best idea. It may be cool if everyone is tossing snow in the air like confetti during the parade (ala Pats v. Miami after Bruschi interception).

      1. Quite honestly, I don’t see how they can possibly pull this thing off.
        Kraft, family and media couldn’t even land in Boston.
        They got diverted to JFK.

        Not only that, the streets are a disaster area.

        Good luck

  64. Flakes just got bigger. Probably means it’s getting warmer aloft. Here’s hoping it
    doesn’t crack 32 up there. 😀

    Absolutely POURING SNOW!

  65. Still 100% snow here in Walpole, snowing harder now than it did at any point during the blizzard. We’re right on the edge of that front though, i expect sleet to commence shortly.

  66. As you were saying TOM, look at this tweet:

    Jim Colman ‏@jcolman22 6m6 minutes ago
    Newton/Needham temp 28 to 18 in ten minutes.

  69. Jeremy Reiner retweeted
    Daniel McAloon Jr ‏@DMcaloonjr 6m6 minutes ago
    @pbouchardon7 @jreineron7 already a heavy rain/sleet in #Taunton

    EXTREMELY TIGHT GRADIENT!!!

  71. 10 AM 39 at Nantucket and rain
    Providence, Mixed Snow and Sleet and 25
    Norwood Snow 1/4 mile vis and 29
    Logan Snow 1/4 mile vis and 30

  73. Its an interesting movement of the coastal front towards the coastline …

    I thought it might come from due north to south, but its coming more from the NW to SE or even W to E.

    Providence’s surface wind is also now northerly.

  74. Weather advisory: Special Weather Statement
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    1021 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

    MAZ005>007-013>016-018-019-021645-
    EASTERN NORFOLK-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN
    PLYMOUTH-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-EASTERN
    PLYMOUTH-SUFFOLK-
    1021 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

    …localized blizzard conditions occurring from boston to
    amesbury…

    http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2015/02/weather-advisory-special-weather-statement.html

  76. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1m1 minute ago
    Definitely looks like several towns should be able to top a foot today as coastal low takes over/snow continues to develop.

  77. I asked Eric FIsher if he thought sleet would make it to boston. He said he didn’t
    think so. See below.

    @ericfisher No Sleet in Boston yet. Will sleet make it to the City? tx

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 59s60 seconds ago
    @JpDave13 don’t think so….if it does will only be for a very brief time

      1. I think he is one of the best I’ve seen for interacting. One of the many reasons I like him. He also isn’t afraid to politely call a blogger on a rude comment.

  78. 7 inches in Reading as of 10:15AM.

    6-12 will work out for most. Heaviest over by noon. Lighter accumulation after.

    1. Any sense what the additional accumulation will be after noon? Trying to figure out a good cleaning time to minimize having to do it again.

  79. While Newton/Needham reports a 10F drop, Norwood just rose 10F with a wind shift to the ENE.

    That should be an interesting meeting of two airmasses about to collide.

    Just went into that lighter precip area on the radar and the precip responded by changing to mostly sleet again.

    1. You Sure did. Great call on that TK.

      We watched Barry last night and he had 4=8 past Boston and to the NE.
      My wife says your office will be Open. I said Barry was WRONG.
      Boston would HAVE MORE than 4-8 inches.

      Office Closed. Boston well on the way to a foot of snow.

  84. Just got into work. Roads are a mess. Temp in Hingham 30 while in Norwell the bank reading was 28 (usually pretty accurate). Snow is a little wetter but still blowing and drifting here. Before I left I measured again and we around 8 inches. If the mix line makes it this far (my question is will it???) then the afternoon commute will be a horror show.

  85. When I got home last night from watching the game, I observed ……

    An insurgence of dry air into eastern New England. The dewpoints were below zero, the dewpoint out at the harbor buoy was in the single digits and only in the low teens on the Cape. The surface winds were northerly.

    Then, nearly every temp in Canada from the northern Great Lakes to northern Maine were below zero. Maybe there wasnt a great high pressure area to our north, but there was a wall of dense, cold air.

    So, I’m just not surprised that the surface mildness of the GFS in southeasternmost New England isnt panning out.

    It just never made sense, much like, in reverse, it doesnt make sense when a model paints a cold, snowy solution in southeasternmost New England in November. Time of year and the buildup or lack of cold airmasses, dependent on scenario, counts for something.

  89. In hindsight, perhaps Gov. Baker should have briefly imposed a travel ban and shut down the T until noon. It’s just as bad, if not worse than last week’s nor’easter.

    As for the parade tomorrow, not a good idea IMO. Wed/Thurs or Fri would be better.

    1. Agreed. Many businesses only close if the T is also closed. They should have encouraged businesses to close more aggressively.

  90. 15.8 degrees in North Reading and it has been all snow. Coming down hard right now. Going to be difficult to find a place for all of this fluff on top of last week’s 29 inches.

  91. Forgot to add, think it is a bad idea to schedule Pats parade for tomorrow. Public safety should prevail over a Super Bowl champion parade on streets likely to be somewhat unsafe. And then you have the 12 degree temperatures.

    1. Yes.

      At 11am, nearly every ob’s surface wind direction backed by about 10 degrees.

      Only Nantucket’s wind veered. Its over to 170 degrees and if I recall correctly, its 44F.

  94. Still raining and 32 degrees here on the upper cape. Everything is a slushy mess. Hard freeze is going to be awful later today and tonight.

  97. The Price Is Right is on WBZ now. Chs. 5 & 7 continue with storm coverage.

    During the 1978 Blizzard IIRC regular programming continued with brief storm updates in between. How times have clearly changed.

    1. I love when they cut to Storm Force people in the field who either (1) stop to ask someone walking by or driving by what they think about the snow or (2) bend down to pick up snow to show us the consistency.

  103. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 18m18 minutes ago
    RT @amvanyo: @MattNoyesNECN Chelsea reporting 11am 11″ temp 28.1°

  106. I see a BIG LULL on the radar. That will significantly kill accumulations.
    Heaviest about over. Lighter the rest of the way.

  107. if this thing is suppose to end around 4 to 5 and we have periods of heavy snow well. I all ready have 9 inches of snow.

  109. Looks to be more precip to the SW to move up later.
    So not sure we are totally done.

    Also, if this low is doing what Eric said and IF bernie was correct, it
    could throw more snow back in here. We shall see.

    1. OS – following you on Twitter now; anyone else out there? If you don’t mind, please share your handle.

        1. I have a FB account, but only out there a few times a year – admittedly a poor FB community member. My wife does a better job trading pictures/stories with our family and friends.

          We joke that I take the pictures and she posts them (she is horrible at taking pictures.. so we stick to our strengths!).

  112. 7.5 ” with a crusty thin layer on top.

    Sleet and large wet snow flakes falling. Its been pulsing back and forth btwn sleet and snow the last hour.

  113. As the secondary low is taking over, notice the southwest to northeast movement of radar echoes. Though much of the heaviest snow is winding down, light to moderate snow will be realized for much of the daylight hours today. This likely would not have occurred if precip moved from west to east and the secondary low didn’t take over. This is what creates the double digit snowfall amounts across much of the area.

  116. Had a bit of a lull here but that batch of precipitation over New Jersey moving in. Its starting to turn back to snow where I am and I am not hearing the pinging. This forecast really panning out here in CT.

  121. Due to very cold temps, there will be NO rally at Boston City Hall tomorrow. Just the Duck Boat parade itself.

  122. Old Salty as I posted earlier I had a lull and now its back to snow. I see precipitation down in New Jersey moving northeast and I wouldn’t be surprised if I got another inch or two as the column looks to finally be cold all throughout.

  123. Boston’t wind at NOON still at 060 Degrees (ENE). Enough of a Northly component
    to prevent it from warming too much. More importantly, indicating that the center
    is Still West of our Longitude. As soon as the winds back a tad more, the temperature
    WILL CRASH!

    Also indicates we “could” get a round of heavier precip. We shall see.

  124. Still coming down like crazy here. It’s seems to be a finer snow. Temp still around 31 and wind seems to have backed a little more north right now.

  126. Has NOT stopped here. Intensity has backed off a tad, but vis still is awful
    Very very small flakes now. Colder air moving in aloft? I dunno.
    Temperature just dropped ever so slightly. Now DOWN to 30.6

    I think the crash is beginning here.

  127. Wait, they’re planning to have the duck boats got down Boylston tomorrow? REALLY? Where the heck do they think people are going to stand?!

  130. Wow, it looks like for the second time in a row, my Lunenburg is leading the pack. We are at 49.1″ total for the past two storms.

  131. Still VERY BAD out there. Snow STILL coming down at a good clip, perhaps not
    2 inches per hour, but 3/4 to 1 inch per hour still. Visibility is POOR! Wind is howling.

    the temperature here is now CREEPING downward. Down to 30.4, It was just a tick under 31.

  132. Seems to have gotten worse in the south end in the past 15 minutes. All roads completely covered still, and the wind is HOWLING!

  136. It’s official NOW!

    Temperature Plunge is under way here. Not dropping really fast yet, but colder
    air is oozing in here. Temp has dropped to 30.2 now. Subtle, but there!

  137. As I said over the weekend would not be surprised if Boston was close to if not above their seasonal snowfall average when this storm is over. If there above normal 4 out 5 winters this decade with above normal snowfall.

    1. That is temperature and not snow. We measured 7 inches a couple of hours ago. Haven’t had time to measure since. Home office called off due to driving ban only worked for me last week 🙁

  141. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 15s15 seconds ago
    next threat is digging trof wed into thu. the more it digs across MN/ eastern Dakotas the better the chc. threat looks to be New Eng

  142. the mix line seems to have crept north a little more again. Probably 10 miles or so ESE of me here in Norwell. Still 15-20 miles from Hingham.

  143. For Edelman fans

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 15s15 seconds ago
    next threat is digging trof wed into thu. the more it digs across MN/ eastern Dakotas the better the chc. threat looks to be New Eng

  144. I am genuinely not trying to be over-dramatic, but WTF are people doing driving!! Car crash outside on Tremont. Three cars involved.

    1. I agree, DS. Son in law was told to go to work. Businesses have to use their heads and arrange for Plan B and C if necessary.

      And did I see the parade is tomorrow??? Or is tuesday a week from tomorrow?

  149. Latest 3 OBS from Boston

    021745 VV008 0.25 +SNBLS 28 28 0425G39 G 39
    021721 SCT006 OVC010 0.5 SNBLSN 30 28 0525G34 G 36
    021654 VV008 0.5 SNBLSN 31 29 0625G34 G 35 007 003

    Wind Back from 060 to 040 Degrees. The low is makings it’s move.

    Also note: Wind Gusting to 39 at the airport. Don’t think it got above that during
    the blizzard.

  150. Still loads of radar echos to our SW all the way down to Northern NJ.

    NOT moving Eastward, but North Eastward towards US!

    1. speaking of northeast.. a bit of a gap in the radar over the I-84 corridor presently on both sides of Hartford

    1. Narto…welcome !! Now, if I already knew you were here, I apologize. I’m getting old and my memory tends to fail me on occasion so most here just smile and nod 🙂

  153. Back to 16 degrees in North Reading. Highest it got this morning was 18. Moderate snow right now and about 10 inches on the ground.

  156. Snowing harder again here in Norwell. Mix line (or whatever we want to call it) looks to have edged SE again.

  157. What a good day! It’s snowing, and the Pats won the Super Bowl last night. Perfect! I just wish my school would’ve canceled, lol, I think we’re the only school in New England that didn’t. But I can’t get upset about that because of how awesome the game was!

    Looks like the forecast is mostly on track, although a lot of places may end up near the top of the range.

  158. AceMaster there was a mix for just over two hours. There was a lull. Now its been snowing since noon.
    I will say this the forecast time was right on for this storm here in CT.

    1. We mixed for about 4 hours with sleet here in Coventry as well. Even went over to freezing drizzle for a bit, but are now back to light snow. My 6″ of snow is like 4″ of cement now. Real pain to remove. But agree JJ, forecast was very much on target here in CT. Looks like we may get into some heavier snow and tack on a few more inches this afternoon.

      1. Mark its snowing at a moderate clip outside my window now. Back edge in Hudson River Valley.
        so I would say another two hours of snowfall. This snow isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Now do we add to these
        snow piles in the coming week. That is the question.

    2. I’ll say it every time. Logan snow totals do NOT actually equal Boston snow totals. Drives me up a wall.

      1. Yes, people like me had written off this winter. How foolish. Just like I wrote off the Patriots last night, and the Bruins in 2013 against Toronto in the playoffs, and in 2004 the Red Sox against the Yankees …

  162. Watching the crew shoveling the walkways outside my office for the second time, without measuring, I’d eyeball we have about 7″ since the first 2 or 3″ from earlier this morning. Still coming down in buckets.

  163. I am reading the 12z euro drops another 1-2 feet of snow on us thursday night and Friday. Though haven’t seen it myself yet. Still not much other model support for it though….as of now.

  166. That is not a good sign right there when one model stands alone as of now. I still think it needs to be watched but would say the EURO solution is not likely.

    1. Coming down as hard here as has since early this morning. Mix line looks like it’s here in Norwell but looks are deceiving. Temp has dropped from 32 to 30 in Hingham.

      1. As much as I hate hate hate snow, I am more sick of the school days off which means I am off. Everyone moping around bored…cabin fever!

  172. The reason as to why the parade has to be tomorrow is because the players want to go home to their families on Wednesday. Otherwise it would end up being a parade of half-empty Duck Boats.

  173. Steady light snow with pockets of moderate snow at least until 5 p.m. Still another 2-4 inches yet to come this afternoon bring totals in some areas close to 15 inches. My forecast working out nicely. Major network forecasts a bit underdone but still a nice job.

      1. Yes. I’m not very confident about Thursday/Friday. That one will be more difficult bring that storm this far north. However, it needs to be watched because it could be significant which is the last thing we need.

  177. That Thursday/Friday storm on the Euro is mostly rain for eastern MA. Lots of snow up north. It’ll be tough to get big snow in eastern SNE out of that one, you’d really need a perfect setup. It still may miss out to sea as well as the GFS and CMC show. But the Euro has another snowstorm in a week. You get the idea. It’s an extremely active winter pattern, with chances for significant snow events every 4-6 days. They won’t all hit, but we’ve already seen a few and odds are we aren’t done. May last right through mid March too.

    1. Split the difference between the euro and gfs, which, at this range, has worked out pretty well, and we have our snowstorm

  178. Special Weather Statement by NWS headlined:

    …SNOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
    FLASH FREEZE BEGINNING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD…

    1. I wonder if Gronk will buy one. I could see him cruising around town with the windows down pumping some jams

  181. The coastal still hasn’t come off the NJ coast and is strengthening filling in the radar nicely. Western edge of snow out by Albany hasn’t moved eastward at all and all the echos down in NJ are headed in this direction with very little eastward movement. More to go folks.

  187. TK, your forecast is verifying nicely but some mets had a hard time with this one. Latest data was misleading and they jumped on it.

  189. TK, what are your thoughts on Thursday? Mike Wankum says that the models are coming into agreement for plowable snow. UGH!!!!

  191. This storm effectively replaced the snowpack in our yard to the blizzard height, maybe a few inches higher. We had lost about a foot in the past week to sublimation, compaction and/or melt.

    What is unfortunately much higher are the snow banks on the roads. The other issue is where the early February sun or wind does no reach on our roof. I am going to have to do some snow removal or face water damage due to ice damming as it will go beyond our 6′ ice barrier at some point.

    1. Captain, we have the same problem on our back North facing roof. We have learned that if we roof rake, the dame will form up to where we raked and then will grow back to the nine feet of ice barrier. It is a no win situation when there is this much snow.

      We also noticed that the piles that had begun to dwindle are back to where they were.

  192. Temp plunge just came thru Marshfield.

    Windows, which were somewhat wet just froze up and got covered with a suddenly misty, powdery snow thats falling.

    Wonder if influx of cold, dry air southward will somewhat temper what’s being seen on radar.

    1. Yes Vicki, it’s too bad that the players can’t wait a few more days so that the city of Boston can catch its breath. As it is right now, they are scrambling to get the parade route and City Hall Plaza plowed for tomorrow morning.

  196. Leaving work now…and of course it’s worse than it’s been all day. Visibility is down to around 1/8 mile (I can barely see the Norwell VNA). 2 inches have fallen since 1:30.

  198. Just came in from shoveling. Not done yet. taking a break.

    While out there I took my trusty yardstick and started measuring.
    ALL spots came in between 10 and 14 inches and everything in between.

    I’m coming in with an even Foot and it’s still SNOWING and QUITE HARD I might add.

  199. Was about to go out but started coming down again decently…might wait bit longer. Hate cleaning up as it’s covering up my work.

    1. NortheastWeatherHQ retweeted
      Gordon Taylor ‏@CatskillWxGuy 3m3 minutes ago
      @AccuWxBeck @EdValleeWx @NEweatherHQ Thundersnow in Connecticut!

    1. Same here and with it having gotten cold, its a thick mist with some bigger flakes still added in.

      The visibility is way down … 1/4, maybe 1/2 mile ?

  207. 2 bands currently intensifying ….

    One in west central CT. That has dark greens and even a few yellows in it.

    And within a good chunk of eastern Mass, another area of real dark greens from south of Worcester into Boston.

  211. New Special Weather Statement from NWS:

    …IN ADDITION MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS CLOSER TO 15 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD WITH LOCAL 20 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE…

    3. Sure. NOWCASTING.

      You should have been in my living room last night when Barry said 4-8 inches for Boston. I about went through the ROOF!!!!

  213. Down to 14.4 here.

    Here’s the latest from Mr. Epstein

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B83Yd9lCEAEjocA.jpg

    AND WHY OH WHY F’N WHY the higher totals N&W when
    It NEVER sleeted in Boston and the HEAVIEST SNOW IS FALLING HERE.

    Someone ain’t using common sense)!(@*()#&!*@&#*(&!@*#&*(!@&#(*!&@(*

    I’m FED UP TO HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  215. I agree TK that the intensity of the snow will decrease over the next two hours but even you must admit that the intensity of this storm was a bit stronger than anticipated.

    1. I believe that 14″-18″ will encroach into Norfolk county a bit more than they have it from this last burst.

  218. I keep thinking…I know it will be the summer before I know it and hot enough I might miss this? Who knows…just such a PITA to clean up.

  219. Blizzard conditions currently in Boston. I am not exaggerating. I’d say that this storm has produced blizzard conditions at times that have felt worse (colder and windier) than last Tuesday. Surprised that there is no travel ban today, because quite frankly there should be one. It’s atrocious out there. My office should have closed. I’m here. I live close to the office. But, for commuters it’s hellish, unsafe.

    2. are the Pats taking a snowcat in from another airport besides Logan..?

      I can’t imagine a lot of flights landing at the moment, 2 hour avg delay for incoming flights

  221. Looks like a blizzard here in Sudbury here too. Everything is covered. With the exception of the outer Cape, looks like all of MA has got heavy snow. And it is freezing out.

  222. Here’s what my wife posted to my Son’s Face Book Page.

    Tom, you tell your Boss that your MOTHER said to let you go home!!!

    He is one of 15 persons to make it to his office. Boss says open till the usual 4:30PM

    1. From my window I can see 93 southbound traffic. Completely snow-covered. Poor visibility. Cars crawling.

  225. Pounding snow in northern CT at 2″/hour! Just measured an inch in the last 30 minutes. Snowing harder in the back end than it did in the front end here.

  226. I was not expecting to see the snow to this intensity once we went back to snow. The intensity is lighting up some out my window but still coming down at a moderate clip.

  228. My neighbor got his driveway plowed about an hour ago, which was motivating me to go out. Glad I didn’t…most intense I have seen all day and his driveway is filling up.

  229. End in sight? Looks like the last significant band cutting through Pioneer Valley/I-91/Connecticut River corridor. Thinking we wind down in a few hours west to east.

  231. Was hoping to get it all done tonight but guessing since it will be dark I will do the roof tomorrow morning and just get the driveway done tonight.

  232. In hindsight, I think its fair to say the backside of the storm is coming together more than expected.

    I do think the idea of this event was to transition from an open wave to a closed system as it got past New England, but perhaps it is making that transition a bit earlier.

  233. Just got home…almost 40 minutes to go 5 miles. Visibility the whole way home was less than 1/8 of a mile. Between 1/8th and a quarter right now here in Hingham. Temp down to 18. Roughly 14 inches of snow. Maybe more. Blowing and drifting more now.

    Spun out on Main Street by the Cracker Barrell…not bad and got in under control quickly. Then a half mile later almost got hit by a mid sized plow.

      1. Everything was fine…the car spun out on Main street but no one was around and the plow driver was going slowly through an intersection and was on the cell phone not watching..that was close.

  234. This is the first good backside snow I have seen since March 2005. That day it rained and the snow line collasped and did that snow come down to several inches. Today it was snow to sleet back to snow.

    1. Yes, I’m surprised. I kind of thought after the 7.5 ” along with some sleet and a bit of freezing drizzle, that this afternoon would see maybe 1 more inch of snow. Surprise, surprise.

        1. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 4m4 minutes ago
          The back edge is clearing WMass now but it will crush snow till the very end.

              2. I think this is some sort of upper level support, that is part of this whole system.

                I think on the radar representations that the TV mets show, this is the stuff seen crossing eastern mass around 8pm.

                1. Storm “pivot” from development IMO. If that comes this way, there’s another 2″ in there for us.

  241. Marty Walsh says the reasoning for the parade TOMMORROW is bc the players want to spend time with there family’s most likely in warmer places, what?

  243. Basically in an intense squall line right now coming through Coventry ct. Huge flakes. Heavy snow and wind. No gradual light tapering off here – this storm is going out with a bang!

  244. Parade: Boston shut down Boston Public Schools for 2 or 3 days last week following the blizzard citing snow cleanup and unsafe streets and sidewalks. Seems to be a bit of fantasy that tomorrow morning this is all going to be cleaned up and ‘safe’?

    This storm was not the blizzard, but a good thumping of snow and it is on top of whatever was not removed from the blizzard.

    Anyone in town today can attest to whether this vision shared by the Mayor is realistic or not?

    1. Not realistic, IMO. Boston public schools will likely be closed. If that’s they case, how could they possibly rationalize having a parade?

  250. Mark I don’t doubt your observations at all. That’s one of the more intense snow bands I’ve ever seen on radar. Wish I were under it. I could certainly see some 4″ per hour rates and maybe some thunder as well. Worcester is getting it now.

  251. This is nuts !!

    Absolute blizzard conditions in Marshfield.

    Heavy snow, wind has really picked up, its 20F all of a sudden.

    1. Oh I know right. I’m directly under that band in central mass. Blinding. Can hardly see out the window

  253. Too close to dinner now…going out around 6pm…by then hopefully the tail end of this will be fizzling out.

  255. It is looking like we will still reach 12″ here which is pretty incredible given that we had about 4-5 hours of sleet thrown in there in between.

  256. I really hope that late work week system falls apart ….

    Its not a gaurantee that would be snow, particularly in eastern Mass.

    Either way (more rain or snow) it would be difficult ….

  258. My office is across the street from the Pru on Boylston and they are really working out there. This Parade idea is ridiculous

    2. I am cool with everyone wanting to go back to their families. Let’s move the parade to the spring during April vacation.

  259. Ok guys, this is what you call a synoptic surprise. Even the high # ppl didn’t expect what is going on now.

    I’ve wanted to update the blog all day but I have been away, and now I have a 2+ hour shovel job ahead of me thanks to my “no-show neighbors”. So I’ll be back a bit later to update but this thing ain’t shuttin’ down for a while especially NW of Boston .. JACKPOT ZONE! At least here in Woburn it never go to 20 degrees so a whole lot of powder fluff!

    Stay safe all. I’ll be back.

        1. No I clear it after each storm religiously. Too cold tonight so there will be no melting and refreezing, which is good.

          1. That works on some roofs. And sadly not so much on others. I intended to have the wires put up on our north facing roof which is huge and was focused on other things and did not. Darn

  260. Just came in from clean up part 2. Another 2.5 inches fell since last clean up.

    Total here up to 14.5 inches and still counting.

    Snow not as intense. Vis now about 3/4 mile.

    STILL accumulating snow. 😀

  266. 18z GFS still not buying the Euro solution for Thursday night. Sends the developing storm out to sea but still brushes us with light snow from the frontal passage.

  267. Snow finally winding down here in northern CT. 6″ on the front end, then a boatload of sleet, then 5.5″ on the back side. Nice storm. Now back out to clean up again!

  268. I’m not rooting for there to be …..

    But I wonder if there will be other delays/closures for other school systems tomorrow ..

    With the afternoon snow, we are near a new foot of snow from this storm.

    The wind is howling, the snow is blowing and temps tonight are going to be very cold.

    I cant see how the roads arent going to be snow covered tomorrow morning and believe me, I’ve seen school called for much, much less. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Oh, thanks John. I hadnt heard that yet. Well, perhaps that will be indicative of what is coming from other towns.

        1. Framingham not cancelled yet but parking ban in force through Wednesday 6:00 am. No idea how they have school with a ban

    1. You must be under that band …..

      Vicki, we have so much snow down here, right at the ocean.

      It looks both beautiful and crazy !!

      1. How much Tom? I’m not sure how much. Not even sure where to measure. Daughter said she was amazed last Friday how much snow was there and then add this. Wow

        1. LOL, exactly Vicki.

          Well, there’s around 2 ft of snow on the ground down here.

          Usually, we have a half foot of cement on the ground, it lasts a day or two, it melts and then sometime later another few to several inches of cement.

          But, very rarely do we build a snowcover like this in easternmost Marshfield. 🙂

  275. Playing a little catch up….

    4 hours of shoveling… I have next door neighbors that always promised to come out with their snow blower since we share the same driveway. They pulled a nice no show today. And 4 out of 5 of them are home, huddle in their house. And finally I get inside and who shows up outside? Yup! I wish they’d move away. 😛

    So, we have west to east moving storms that look fierce and do nothing, once that look decent and are decent, and ones that look like this one did yet overproduce. And there you have it. I don’t mind missing the #’s so much as it has been a decent forecasting Winter for most of us so far. I feel lucky up here in Woburn to have stayed in the real cold air because at least the overproduction was all powder fluff. Not so to the south where a flash freeze has taken place. Not fun for that area.

    So now as I try to regain feeling in my extremities, I’m going to have dinner and look over the situation for the rest of the evening and the days ahead and update the blog soon.

    My quick comment about the next few hours was an teaser about this final band. The intention was to arrive home at 2:30PM and be able to expand upon it, until I realized that I had a monumental snow removal job ahead of me. So now it begins, and my apologies to anybody who trusted my #’s which were clearly too low!

    *** Mel, I have approved your series of comments. Welcome!!

    2. No problem you have done a great job this winter. If you are going to miss a little bit I am glad you were a little low rather than the other way around.

  277. Visibility had improved about a half hour or so ago to about 1/2 mile or better. Now back down between 1/8th and 1/4.

  278. Well I certainly didn’t call for the 2 feet in Lunenburg! Did they hit the jackpot or what? 😉

    1. A trained spotter in North Weymouth reported 14.5 inches at 5:25. I’d have to say that’s pretty good for here too. Right now I’d say 16 inches or better.

    2. This gives us five feet in less than a week. The snow this afternoon was amazing to watch. At about 2:00P I went out to refill our bird feeder. I hope that they appreciate it! It sure looks like they do. I was only a few feet away from the feeder and the birds were already back.

      The temperature never went above 12 today.

  282. TK you are amazing and we all know that things change. Thaw out, relax and enjoy looking out the window.

    1. Thanks!

      I’m not taking it badly. It’s a little frustrating from a forecasting perspective but I know how nature can be. We’re in the zone now. Some of the things I am seeing through mid February are just plain scary if they come to fruition.

      2. Wise man. And i might have been better off not knowing that last little bit. Yikes. But thanks …..I think

  283. As I was clearing my driveway tonight, I was thinking the same thing. I am certainly a big believer in the persistence of pattern theory aka when in drought forecast drought. I know many find that frustrating especially in a pattern that is not “exciting.” Well I am bowing to the persistence of the pattern and it is opposite of drought.

    1. Thursday has me a little worried.
      Next Monday has me a little worried.
      Sometime toward the middle of the month has me worried.
      Not worried in a panic way, but in the type of way that says: “Hey, we’re in a wicked cold and snowy pattern right now.”

      Not saying all of these storms happen, but the threats are sure lining up. That part is not much of a surprise as we both thought that was coming in February (started in late January but who’s counting). 😉

      It will break though. I think we have to get MJO through 8, 1, and into 2, then we’ll start to ease things.

      1. Maybe this is the time for a view of what you see. I understand that it absolutely may not happen but it is also something to keep in mind as there are plans that folks might want to consider….I for one would seriously think of having our biggest roof shoveled.

  285. Get those roofs cleared. Back when we had all the snow in January 2011 water got into my mom’s house and caused damage in three rooms. Now I guy comes with a roof rake and clears the snow when we get several inches so that does not happen again.

  287. At least for MOST areas the snow has been lightweight and in some cases has blown off roofs but still a good idea to get vulnerable ones cleared should we end up with a mild storm of rain or wet snow. Still a possibility with a couple of these threats in the next few weeks.

    1. Even here with temps in the teens daughter said it was much heavier this pm than this am. Sadly nothing has blown off of our roof. And what did blew into the smaller roof we covered with rubber roofing two years ago.

  288. Just now, I was walking back from work across the Boston Common and through the Public Garden. It makes one appreciate the awesome variation of New England weather. It looks and feels like the tundra today. No exaggeration. An Eskimo might actually feel out of place here today, because there is SO MUCH snow piling up. Snow continues to fall and blow sideways. The temperature keeps dropping. And yet, two months from now the Sox will open up at Fenway. We’ll probably have had our first 70 degree day. And, marathon Monday may be an 85 degree scorcher, or a drab, raw 48 degree day. The migratory birds will have returned from South America. The snow will have (mostly) melted. Stores will be overstocked with short-sleeve shirts and sandals, in preparation for summer that often takes a while to get here, but once here can overwhelm us with heat, humidity, and haze.

    1. I love this post and it’s all very true. I love the contrast in our weather.

      Vicki will declare this the “post of the day”. 🙂

      1. I just laughed out loud. Literally. I didn’t see you had commented as we were finishing jeopardy and I left Joshua’s post on full screen so I could read. I read it three times to enjoy the full picture in my mind. I was hooked when I read walking across the common and gardens.

    1. It just keeps regenerating. Not only did none of the guidance have this intensity at this time, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a progressive storm do this to this magnitude.

      I suspect there is a layer of milder air above the advancing Arctic air and it’s created some additional lift in the lower levels. I have noticed that despite the very cold temps at the surface, some of the flakes have been on the larger side. That indicates warmer air above, but not warm enough to cause sleet.

      1. I’ll go along with those larger flakes. I walked home from the T (1 mile) and that is all that was falling at the time.

    1. We have now reached the stage where “the atmosphere wants to snow” and will find ways to do it even when you think it shouldn’t be happening.

      1. Reminds me of a couple of Winters in the 1990s when we had a bunch of storms “ending” that took like 6 hours to end.

  293. I’m going to write a new blog now. A few adjustments to be made, not with this storm – too late for that, just with the weather expected in the coming days.

    Have the worst headache, developed a sore throat, and muscle aches from that shoveling marathon. Not to complain, but feeling like crap! LOL! I actually haven’t really had any colds or anything this Winter, just a couple quick ones back in the Autumn.

      1. I’m sending them along too. Son has flu and he has been down and out for days…not sure how long it lasts but hoping it is just from marathon shoveling. I may have to appear at your neighbors door as they are beginning to truly tick me off

    1. Just came in again. Now up to 17.5 inches here. Another 2.5 since I cleaned
      last time! Incredible. I think the snow piles are now officially HIGHER
      than after the Blizzard of 78. My arms are going to fall off. Pretty tough tossing
      shovel fulls of snow 8 Feet up to the top of the pile!!

      Oh and did I mention it….it’s still snowing. Not too hard, but still flaking!

  295. It’s back to heavy snow here again in Hingham…don’t think I’ll be shoveling till the morning at this rate.

    1. Just light here. And I was so focused on your trip home that I didn’t realize yiu had said Cracker Barrel. Is there one in hingham now? We love Cracker Barrel. Reminds us of our drives to charleston when kids were young

      1. The Cracker Barrell here is just a little general store type place not connected with the chain. I just can’t believe how much snow we have here. It’s has to be 18 inches or better now.

        1. I sadly have no idea. We had just too much stuff going on here so I left snow removal to others except to venture out and do a bit of shoveling late. I can’t have snow without being outside. I don’t think we had as much as you did. Will wait for the ham operator here to post total and subtract six :). And darn we were really excited about Cracker Barrel. But mostly happy you are safe. And all others here

  297. New blog posted! I think I broke my “s” “n” “o” and “w” keys from overusing them. 😛

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