Winter To The Max

574 Comments

9:06PM

COMMENTARY…
This is it folks, “the pattern”. This is the type of Winter pattern that delivers some of the impressive Winter storms and very cold weather and there has been no shortage of either during the last 10 days. In fact, Boston had been sitting at 5.5 inches of snow for the Winter as we entered the final week of January, and since then in the last 10 days has managed to set a record for the snowiest 10 day period on record. And Lunenburg, the winner of the snow jackpot, has received about 50 inches of snow from 2 storms during the last 6 days! And guess what? There is more cold and threats of snow in the pipeline for at least the next week and probably way beyond that, based on the current and upcoming pattern.

SUMMARY…
About that pattern. Lots of cold air available in Canada, a trough in the East, frequent pieces of energy coming around that trough, boundaries nearby, etc. … well you know the rest of the story. Let’s just get to the forecast for now and break down the systems ahead in the next blog.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Snow ends. Flash freeze Cape Cod and Islands. Blowing and drifting snow. Cloudy start then clearing. Lows -5 to 0 northwest of Boston, 0-10 elsewhere, mildest along the coast and over Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -20 at times.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Occasional blowing snow. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures rising into the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Highs 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 5. High 25.

574 thoughts on “Winter To The Max”

  2. ok – just spent an hour outside doing mop-up duty after the plow guy created 10ft snow banks at the end of the driveway that will be there until probably April

    snow in Sherborn was mostly snow globe, we had a hint of sleet for 10-15 minutes and really never got into any heavy snows

    so the 15″ could have easily been 12″, 10″ or 8″ for every 5 miles or so due south of here

    in my mind, tight gradient and regeneration in perpetuity led to the higher amounts

  6. Love this blog and love the weather. Glad I found it and glad to be part of the community. Thank the good lord for the inventor of the snowblower!

    As of 5:59 p.m., the NWS was reporting 15 inches here in North Reading. I believe there was another inch or two between 6 and 8 p.m. Add that on to the 29 inches we received last Monday and Tuesday and YIKES!!!!!!

      1. I only bought one two years ago after either shoveling or having our driveways plowed for 25 years! They really are sweet and so easy to use. Certainly has come in handy the last two weeks.

  8. measured 15 inches here in billerica. , so far this winter 49.6 inches here in billerica. 40.3 inches within the last two storms. will have one more measurement early tomorrow morning to see how much more falls.

  9. To provide some perspective, just 350 miles south/southwest of here, as the crow flies – at or near the coast – there is no snow at all on the ground. And 300 miles from here barely anything. It’s remarkable the difference between, say, DC and Boston, or Baltimore and Boston. Even Philadelphia and Boston differ significantly. Of course, there can be exceptions. I believe 2010 was one.

  10. Just got in from another round of shoveling. Literally have no place to put it…all the snow banks are at least my height (6ft) or better. Will probably get plowed in again tonight..oh well. The stars are finally out here as it stopped snowing right around 10pm.

        1. I am ready! Ha. I wouldn’t mind all this if we had a few 40 degree days mixed in to lower these piles a bit.

  11. My cats were freaking out about the snow plows. Poor babies thought the plows were IN the walls and they were jumping up the walls, meowing, jumping up on my bookshelf, thinking the world was coming to an end!

    1. Years ago a dog I had would do something just like…jump on the bed and burrow under the blanket. My cats and dog now could care less…they just sit on couch, desk, windows and watch the world go by.

  12. 16 inches when it was all done in Woburn.

    I had 7 inches of snowfall for the season before the pattern change (pre January 24).
    Starting January 24 we’ve had 4 systems delivering 6.5 inches, 24.0 inches, 1.5 inch, and 16.0 inches, or exactly 4 feet of snow in 10 days here on Woods Hill in Woburn. So at the end of February 2 (about the half way point of the Winter weather system) the snowfall sits at the seasonal average. Not too shabby. That will be added to easily during the next 10 days.

    Night all. 🙂

  16. Good morning.

    I am sore. I’ll post again. Final accumulation here 17 inches. I think Hadi measured 17.1.

    Office opens at 11 today.

    I’ve got snow piles that rival the Blizzard of 78 IF NOT higher. AMAZING!!

    So far, Thursday looks to pale in comparison, however, it would NOT surprise me
    if that system ends up Stronger than currently modeled.

    Euro appears to be the heftiest of the bunch.

    1. So difficult to tell with the Euro Wundermap, but it looks like a good 6 inches and perhaps more. Anyone with Euro numbers or map?

  17. From NWS

    00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION REGARDING POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THU. ALL OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET AND CMC IS SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE FRONTAL WAVE WITH MUCH OF ITS IMPACTS REMAINING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD IS STILL FAIRLY LARGE HERE AND THE TIME FRAME
    IS STILL 60-72 HR…THUS BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO PLAY THIS DOWN
    THE MIDDLE. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND HERE. FOR WHATEVER REASON THE ECMWF HAS HAD A MORE AMPLIFIED BIAS THIS WINTER SO FAR.

    EVEN IF THE MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION VERIFIES…A FEW INCHES OF
    SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE PARENT LOW AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME IMPACT TO THETHU MORNING COMMUTE.

  18. A few shots of our driveway last night after clean up:

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/1959351_10205899678478209_2965931170263129901_n.jpg?oh=fa27d8ff16bc2716e0bc4e7a44a575d5&oe=55551628&__gda__=1432857763_b07ec02fd0837d404630b661eeb75112

    https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10492054_10205899679278229_3559767360250136441_n.jpg?oh=4cdc3808c69fa8894c0f567cbe5ada7f&oe=5561F077

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10959478_10205899679878244_1703526778083541227_n.jpg?oh=e23d2bcca4ce2033631245116384061a&oe=555E44A8&__gda__=1432947453_44da0d2409049ae8fdeef28ecf012636

    https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10897018_10205899680358256_3601070721563819550_n.jpg?oh=7d1398278f916a4092eb47fe5f0dfd18&oe=5568755C

  19. I think for Thursday a 1-3 2-4 inch system. Of course the way its been since January 24th would not be surprised if more snow happens with that.
    That band that cut across CT yesterday afternoon over my area was impressive. I snowed harder with than band than the blizzard.

  20. I MIGHT miss the big totals again. I miss big totals with the blizzard with storm tracking a 100 miles further east and yesterday due to a mix. I am not complaining close to 10 inches with both of those storms.

  21. The 13 inch snow total for framingham looks about right. I had noticed some TV mets stopped reporting the over 30 inches last storm by the ham operator. Wonder if he or she was asked to be more accurate.

  22. What a cold shot on the GFS for early in the Feb school vacation week …..

    I’m not really enjoying the current, unplanned school vacation week. (5 out of the last 6 school days cancelled)

  24. Good morning!! What a night at Gillette greeting all the Patriots, 1000’s of crazy fans screaming and yelling, very special last couple of days.

    I’ve got 4 meetings today, it’s time to put start dates in effect, lots of employee meetings the next few weeks. I think we are aiming for a March 9th kickoff the season. I would say 6 out of 10 yrs we start before March 15th, the other 4 after March 15th. Nevertheless its not far away at all. Next week 10 ton of organic fertilizer is delivered and it’s then that it sinks in that it’s go time. It comes and goes quick. Enjoy the day!! 🙂

  25. The new column of snow in Marshfield is a history of the temp profile of the past storm.

    The bottom layer is medium density snow.

    A majority of the middle layer is frozen, heavy cement stuff. It was supporting my daughter as she walked on it.

    The top layer is about 4 inches of powder.

  26. I’m in the office. I couldn’t wait around to 11. I was up with the call from the boss
    to delay opening, so I played around with the computer and then slowly got ready, scrapped off the car one last time and drove in. Commute was about 10 minutes longer than normal. Not bad considering. I can’t imagine what it will be like when school
    opens, if it ever does. 😀

  27. NWS out of Taunton has the hazardous weather outlook up going with a 30 – 60 percent chance of several inches of snow Wednesday night through Thursday night.

  29. The new snowfall projections being thrown around for mid week …….

    Is that just from the arctic front and what appears to be a small disturbance riding along it …..

    Its assuming no influx of moisture from the southern stream system along the Gulf of Mexico ? I’m not saying there will be any southern stream moisture, but, what I’m implying is another 2-3 or 4-6 on the South shore (according to the NWS) just from the northern stream system ???? Yikes, if so.

    1. Waiting on NAM. Shows a pretty decent piece of Northern Stream Energy
      with Front/Clipper passing well to the Northeast.

      Looks like some action about to develop.

      More in a few.

      1. All of a sudden between hour 48 and hour 51, it shows
        EXPLOSIVE development off of the NC coast. Don’t know
        track. So far “look” OTS. Not sure. Even so with Arctic air,
        we could muster some ocean effect?

        1. That (ocean effect) scenario was crossing my mind as well.

          In those few hrs after arctic frontal passage and the front and low are interacting just SE of New England and the wind is N or maybe briefly NNE.

          Dont think it would be a big window of time, but the way things have been going …..

        2. It does take it out South of us, but dangerously close
          and the way it’s been going this year, I would not
          count it out just yet.

          We still get a slug of precip.

  30. OH, this is nice!! BRUTAL!!!

    Mike Dyer ‏@PointMenino 56m56 minutes ago
    Here’s something you don’t see often: Hingham Beals Cove at Shipyard frozen @cruiseBHC @jreineron7 @HinghamJournal

    1. I do it here at work, so it’s I. I open and paste, getting the old one.
      I need to open in new tab and then COPY. I’m so anxious to post I forget
      that step.

      THis is the BRUTALITY I MEANT!!!

      Jeremy Reiner retweeted
      Christa Delcamp ‏@cdelcampon7 5m5 minutes ago
      15 mile back up       reported on Mass Pike headed into city #7News

  32. The way our meteorologist made it sound this morning its 1-3 with the front passing through on Thursday morning but the ripple of low pressure that develops on front goes out to sea.

    1. Well, that sounds like the best case scenario currently, for the least amount of new snow …….. I, for one, am hoping this works out because starting tomorrow, we need a few days of normalcy to start setting back in, well at least in the school schedule anyway. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Well, as a teacher, I now feel out of synch.

          When school happens as scheduled, there’s a nice flow to the learning process.

          Even as you finish a topic, the following day or 2 allows for class warmups to re-hit the topic, while continuing to build off of it.

          Kids are very good retainers of information, but …. When you lose all these days in a short period, it really is tough. My mind is prepping to really have to go back a few sections and instead of just doing early class warmups on them, probably having to spend a full day or 2 on it.

          1. Hmm, Ya think?

            Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 7m7 minutes ago
            4 models to look at for Thursday storm from now through the afternoon. Model 1 keeps snow confined to south of Boston. Small accum. Cape.

            Let’s see:

            NAM
            GFS
            CMC
            EURO

            That should round it out.

  33. 12Z NAM says NO to storm on Thursday. Has 2 or 3 inches from frontal passage/arctic air arrival/fringes of ocean storm.

    Snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020312&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    Here’s the storm development

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015020312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=051

    Here’s where it goes

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015020312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=057

    Awfully close.

    Remember the Blizzard. On Friday => NO Storm. Well out to sea
    Late Friday night => Well it’s coming a little closer, worried it “could” throw
    some snow into Eastern Sections
    Saturday AM => AMEGGEDON, get out the National Guard.

    THat was fast. And this year I don’t TRUST the models. THis is too close
    for comfort. We need to watch.

    1. Euro is leading the way. WILL it be correct this time?
      OR will the NAM/GFS be correct.

      Now waiting on the other 12Z runs.
      😀 😀

  37. It could be wrong, but the big picture signal the GFS is giving for the middle of February is something to really watch.

    In general, it suggests an amplified pattern with some even colder outbreaks of air and really strong storms.

    I’m not really focused on where those would occur, just observing the big picture of what it is suggesting.

    1. You are CORRECT on the big picture.

      Have seen many tweets from Mets indicating the same.
      Some are VERY CONCERNED.

      If we get the right set up, we could get a COLOSSAL snow storm.

      I saw one and posted here where one MET thought that sometime
      during that period, we would have an arctic outbreak with COLD
      to rival 1934. Well Boston set the all time Recorded low temperature of:
      Drum roll please
      -18F Who knows what it was in the Burbs????

      Add that with Pacific/Gulf/Atlantic moisture and KABOOM!!!!
      (Of course everything would have to line up for that)
      NOT saying this is going to happen, just something to keep an eye on.

      EVEN if and perhaps likely NOT to be quite that cold, none-the=less it
      WILL be extremely COLD.

  38. Were locked into a wintry pattern that looks to have staying power. My how things have changed when we couldn’t buy a snowflake prior to January 24th.

  39. I see 4 threats as far as I can comfortably look ahead. 3 snow and 1 rain or snow as we will lose Arctic air for that one. More later…

    1. Make the Rain OR snow one a MISS.
      Don’t need no STINKEN RAIN around here at this point!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Early in run, BUT I see some “hints” of the GFS TRYING
        to phase Northern and Southern Stream. I dunno. Still watching it come out.

  44. My thought on the GFS and taking everything else into account, for far SE Mass …

    Another quick freeze up late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

    Maybe a period of rain (Marshfield, southeastward OS 🙂 🙂 🙂 ), ending as snow. Fairly decent temp crash from 30s into the teens over a several hour period.

    1. If you think you get RAIN, what do you think Boston gets?

      Honestly I think this ends up 8-12 inches for Boston.
      Can’t hold me to that at this point. It’s just a feeling based on the trends
      and the current pattern.

      I WANT TO SEE the EURO. I’m going to be tied up until after 2PM,
      so I won’t be able to checked that till later. BUMMER!

      1. Sincerely, Boston points north and west, all snow.

        A wet snow with the arctic front and/or some moisture added in from an offshore system that would transition to a wind blown powdery snow. Something like that. But, down my way, the boundary layer will probably have that extra 2 or 3F to keep the initial precip slug as rain. This is what happened with that small clipper just last Friday. We were in Braintree with wet snow and past exit 13 on rte 3, it was light rain.

        I also feel as though both the NAM and GFS are signaling the precip holding on a few extra hours along the immediate Mass coastline, with a due north wind.

        1. I really think we are in for it.
          Trends toward the coast imo.

          We shall see.

          Boston CANNOT deal with this.
          Streets are already EXTREMELY CONSTRICTED!!!!

          Some were barely passable on my way to work this morning.

          2. I guess my initial guess would be :

            Boston : 4″. Marshfield : rain first 1/3 of event ……… then 2″ snow

            1. That would be with the front etc and NOT from any impending coastal.

              I “think” we get into the precip shield
              from the coastal. 😀

    2. “I’ve been fielding questions regarding Thursday snow amount. As you know, I’ve been eyeing this one for days. Amounts still hazy but indications are a “half footer” for Eastern New England, if the storm does what I expect it to do. In other words, I expect somewhere either side of half a foot for those impacted, but there would be less in Western New England. That said, it’s worth noting my conjecture is just that at this point – a preliminary estimate based on recent indicators…keep in mind that yesterday, the average guidance position was well out to sea and we kept the storm in based upon the weather pattern. Slowly, more guidance is jumping on board, which adds confidence to event *occurrence* but still leaves finer *details* like precipitation amount to general estimates based on presumed weather pattern setup. At this point, the key to this Thursday’s forecast is exact timing of northern energy & the extent of a link with southern moisture. Without southern moisture, the northern stream energetic disturbance Thursday would bring light accumulation, but a link with moisture is what ups the ante. Lots to watch, will keep you posted.”

  48. Whatever happens Thursday morning, the timing looks not great.

    If I’m doing my math correctly, its focused on 7am to 1pm. Lovely.

    Many days out, 12z run showing polar high to the north, ripple(s) of low pressure to our south. More lovely …..

  50. This is CLASS!!!

    Lou Merloni retweeted
    Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 3m3 minutes ago
    Super-Bowl MVP Tom Brady said on WEEI that he wants to give his MVP truck to Malcolm Butler.

  53. By 0Z runs, we’ll be grabbing that other piece of energy. I’d put money on it!

    Ok, maybe not money. I don’t have money to spare.

  54. Schools in Massachusetts cannot go past June 30 either. It has nothing to do with weather or warm temperatures. It’s because the fiscal year ends on June 30 and you can’t pay teachers and staff using money for the previous school year with money from the next.

    1. Thanks CF…I had asked the question a day or so ago elsewhere as I thought that was the case. Framingham is up to June 24 now I believe. We have been as late as the 27th IIRC

  56. April vacations may be in jeopardy before school extends past 6/30, I believe that safety valve has been used in the past.

  57. And Saturday mornings. The state Department of Education does not waive the 180-school day rule.

    1. Yup and I’m glad they dont !

      As it is, it is very difficult to reasonably spend enough time on all the curriculum concepts and we ask our students to comprehend and master a lot in less than one calendar year.

      I’m actually in favor of spreading out the school year just a bit more over the calendar year and adding 5 more days to make it 185.

      My sister in law also teaches in NC and there school year has 5 more days, for 185.

        1. I do not agree with punishing children and families because school was closed. I do not ask for school to be closed whe it snows. If the administration wants to close it down, then the day should be lost.

  58. Been calling around to get prices for roof cleaning. We have just one of three roofs that need cleaning and it is a large roof but low and has a gentle slope. One person can do it in about 3-4 hours. The places want to send five and charge from $800-$1000. Seriously?

        1. I think riduculous said it very well. The first place I called put the rubber roof on and knows we have another roof we planned to have them replace this spring. They were $1000. Guess who won’t be using them in the spring.

      1. Whoa – I had to go back and recheck. It cannot be accurate. There is snow in the Charlie hole…..a hole bunch of it 😉

    2. Living in NE MA I can attest to the 3+ feet of snow on the ground. I’m surprised by the lesser amounts out near Fitchburg MA and just west of there. I would have thought they have the same if not more than NE MA

  63. I really need to subscribe to one of the euro sites, instantweathermaps is useless for the euro. I see the Thursday system but have no idea what it does.

  64. 12z Euro is further east and more in line with the other models for Thursday. Possibly still an advisory level event for eastern areas but looks like a general 1-3″ for most.

  65. Phew …

    The 12z EURO kind of looks like the 12z GFS …

    Some kind of low maybe on the arctic front, but perhaps not a full link up with any southern stream moisture.

    Sure blows up a low into Maritimes at hr 72.

    Be curious to see a 12z EURO snowfall projection, if anyone can post it ……

    1. Not that i dont trust the euro (fully anyways) but to go from 9-10″ down to 1 or 2″ in one run this close to the event gives me pause. This this will be a high end advisory level snowfall and possibly 6″+ in Tom’s neck of the woods

  67. Take a look at that radar and tell me we aren’t in line for it again. The theme lately has featured the northern stream energies being very vigorous and not your typical moisture starved systems. Even if we don’t tap southern moisture, we can still end up with more than just a couple inches.

    2. Thats kind of what I’ve been wondering …..

      The 1003 mb low on the GFS and the small surface reflection on the EURO, I think its 1010mb at 48 hrs ……

      Is this a hint at something generating on the cold front, not directly related to the southern stream system ?

      Another scenario ……. its a bit worrisome when a cold front tries to beat and suppress a southern system. Sometimes it does do just that. Other times though, there can be an interaction btwn the 2, where even though the low stays fairly separated, somehow, the moisture along the front gets enhanced (absorbed ??) from the southern system.

      Its hard to compare a winter mid latitude scenario with a tropical scenario, but if memory serves correct, last July …. A cold front came across southern New England while Hurricane Arthur tracked well SE of the benchmark, but there were pretty good rains nonetheless.

      Perhaps thats a stretch of a comparison ?????

  69. How could one trust the Euro right now? It has not done very well especially within this time frame. Maybe TK can comment on this, but these types of setups seem like the hardest to accurately predict because it all depends on the interaction of the two streams of energy and exactly when/where they interact. Right now it looks to be too far too late for us here, but the way things are going, who knows!

  70. We are in a situation where the atmosphere just wants it to snow. That said, not in love with a “big one” for Thursday, but yes a 1-3 and 3-5″ type thing west to east is on the table. I have less faith in next Monday, but far out on a blog only limb- ~February 15th for a potential high impact type storm that could also be part of a pattern change to a less volatile set up.

    FYI-The GFS had the most QPF for yesterday’s event. Due to resolution issues and its own quantitative equations that it uses to determine PTYPE it was taking some mid level warming and translating that to a mixed precip signal, but it was that thin layer of warmer air it was picking up near a very cold boundary that was creating the genesis for the heavier, regenerating QPF. Again, no model is perfect, and I certainly did not apply enough meteorology to what the GFS was trying to say, but it had the signal, and very little else did.

  71. Here’s the 12Z CMC. Yes I know it hasn’t been doing all that well this Winter, but
    even so, it is another look at this. Just drives home how CLOSE this is:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015020312&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=0

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015020312&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=0

    snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015020312&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=232

  73. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 44m44 minutes ago
    Don’t try to drive in Boston right now. Just don’t. Traffic mayhem. #snowbanksfordays

      1. Btw I was just on Boylston Street.

        I can tell you the streets absolutely have NOT NOT NOT been
        cleared. The side walks are in good shape, but the streets
        are NOT. People will have to stand on the sidewalks
        and view from there.

        The City “may” have removed snow from the previous storm
        BUT NOT from this one. I saw NO as in ZERO crews working
        to remove ANY SNOW at all.

        GOOD LUCK TOMORROW is all I have to say.

        Should be cancelled and have a celebration when camp opens
        in the Summer!!!!

        1. While I’m on the subject, I voted for Walsh and thought he was decent. Well I’m here to tell you he is NOT NOT NOT
          handling this snow situation very well.

  74. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 35m35 minutes ago
    Just can’t believe this is a data assimilation issue … but some sort of model deficiency … not progressing flow properly off E coast

    Pete Bouchard ‏@pbouchardon7 32m32 minutes ago
    @RyanMaue Something is clearly up with this “superior” model. Find myself discounting solution when it is outlier.

  76. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 49s49 seconds ago
    Thursday snow looks like small event. 2-4″. Some impact to commutes, timing still questionable. Late Sunday-Monday system more potential.

    1. While I agree 2-4 isn’t much, it seems like a lot considering the piles now. Every inch makes it higher.

      1. My take is with 2 inches you just see the sanders and salters…with 4 inches the plows come out…that’s when the fun starts

    1. That’s a long way out there, however, if current trends and the pattern mean anything, that system WILL move closer and closer to the coast.

      OMG, seriously, we’ll need the National Guard.

  84. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 37s38 seconds ago
    The next larger concern for snow would be Sunday evening into Monday. Of course, not set in stone 5 days out. But an early ‘heads up.’

  86. I’ve never rooted against snow, but after 4 snow days in the past 2 weeks and the piles of snow lining my street in Natick–I’ll be happy if this one misses us!

  90. timing will be everything for thursday. i think generally light snow but a period of moderate snow can not be ruled out for thursday morning commute? could cause problems just because of all the snow all ready on the ground

  91. Driving around Marshfield ….

    Its like driving around in Lincoln, NH or on the Kangamangus Highway in mid winter, where you expect the street snow piles to be car high and thick ….. And to see many snow piles 10 ft or taller and to have snow on the level be knee deep.

    I kept half expecting a mountain to pop up around every corner we took.

  92. Thursday looks like a non-event to me. At least compared to what we’ve seen. Eric’s map is probably alright, if anything I’d go even a little lower, especially on the Cape. Haven’t looked at anything beyond that though.

  93. Pete says it is going to snow for two straight days…Sun & Mon. but not a strong storm per se. As for Thursday, just a coating for Boston with 2″ well N&W.

    FIND-MORE-ROOM!!! 🙁

  96. Light snow event but if the trough digs a tad more (like recent storms) we will be in for it.

    Watch for the potential of a long duration snow event in the Sun/Mon period and then another ocean storm one week from now.

    I actually have more confidence on the event that could occur in 96 hours than the one on Thursday ironically.

    1. I don’t think there are any surprises regarding Thursday’s storm 2 inches tops city more for the cape.

  97. Another long snow storm. Went in right after the pats game and got home this morning. If anybody is watching the news the highway is gridlocked all a direct result from all the snow in Boston . Bad decision regarding that parade tomorrow as the city canot handle all the extra traffic and people right now. I myself was was in gridlock leaving the city at 8:00 this morning.

      1. Your welcome. I don’t work the streets I work at a hospital. It’s alot of work to keep things running smoothly believe me.

            1. John thanks from me too. We were supposed to go to Dana Friday but it has been postponed until Wednesday so I hope roads are better. I do not like driving in Boston. Never minded when younger.

              1. Your welcome Vicki. Glad I can do my part to help out the patients , visitors and staff who walk into our building 24/7.

  98. Walsh has some damage control to do. Traffic gridlocked, all lines of MBTA severely delayed, city a complete mess. I’m not saying it’s a result of any action by the administration, but they’ve gotta do something here!!!

    1. The parade decision alone is nuts. Condition of streets need to be addressed. MBTA also. I thought bakers comment that this could not happen again was curious. I remember Scott browns comment after flooding in scituate when he said he would not let it happen again. I’m thinking they have an in with Mother Nature perhaps 🙂 😆

    1. Yes it is john, But we are a Northern City and SHOULD be equipped to deal
      with this. Apparently some government officials haven’t a CLUE!!!

  100. If traffic is bad now around Boston, they what will happen tomorrow with schools back and the parade? The T is not helping by saying “expect delays again tomorrow”.

  101. The 18z GFS sends the Monday storm slowly south of us. It drops about 48 straight hours of light to moderate snow on the mid atlantic. A coastal low is then spawned and sits over the ocean off Hatteras for hours before drifting harmlessly out to sea. That strong high pressure over southeast Canada (which Eric Fisher noted in his tweet above) basically shunts the thing south and prevents it from coming north. If that high is as strong and well positioned as modeled, could this be plausible? One thing that looks likely – that blocking is going to result in a very long duration event for someone…..an initial overrunning event, then followed by potential coastal redevelopment and a slow moving ocean storm. Very interesting setup.

    1. Let’s hope that someone is not here. We need a break between storms not big ones once a week.

      2. Tk how much for Boston on Thursday and do you know the timing. Also early thoughts on this Sunday / Monday system should we be worried. Thanks hope all is well.

      3. Actually, there was some melting today off the blacktops. It just goes to show that the sun is getting stronger as we crawl toward Spring.

  103. Good point about early next week POTENTIAL from Upton, NY
    IF THE HIGH IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST…IT WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC
    BOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH LEADING TO LESS OR NO SNOW.

  104. DS, I want to concur. WALSH is blowing it. So is BAKER.
    MBTA total MISMANAGEMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NO EXCUSES!!! it’s a FARCE!!!

    My Son left East Boston via MBTA at 4:30. He arrived home shortly after 7:30 PM.
    People were FIGHTING each other to board the few trains that arrived!!!
    A JOKE AN F’N SHAME!!! SOMEONE NEEDS TO PAY FOR THIS!!!!!!!!1

    AND I don’t want to hear about it being an Historic period of snow. BullShit.
    NO EXCUSE whatsoever!! IF managed properly the STATE and THE CITY
    should be able to handle this!!!!!

    I’m COMPLETELY DISGUSTED and ASHAMED of my Mayor and Govenor!!!!!

  105. Oh and to echo VICKI!!!!

    The Mayor of Boston is OUT OF HIS FREAKIN MIND to have that
    parade tomorrow. NUTS!!!! INSANE!!!!

    I’m predicting and UTTER DISASTER IF they try to pull this OFF.

    I already posted that I was down there on Boylston St. this afternoon.
    TRUST me when I say, They ARE NOT NOT NOT NOT ready for this!!!!!

    Are our government officials taking INSANITY PILLS!!!!! WHAT GIVES!!!

    NUTS NUTS NUTS

    COMBINATION of INEXPERIENCE AND TOTAL INCOMPETENCE!!!

    AND I WON’T BACK OFF from those comments!!

    A TOTAL travesty!!!

    1. I agree totally. I’m left now with no choice I need to drive into the city to go to work tomorrow because I’m a redline rider. And the parade tomorrow the city is an absolute mess there is no way it can handle these people by the hundreds coming into Boston tomorrow. And the t said it can’t handle it right now.

  107. It took my coworker two hours to get out of our parking garage today. She was parked on the 4th floor. 4th!

  108. Getting back to weather. Waiting on the 0Z NAM

    In the meantime, I think we are destined for BELOW ZERO across the area
    tonight. Down to 10.2 here

    Also cleanup part 4.

    Shoveled off the 2nd floor porch/deck and the back steps and the cellar bulkhead.
    huge piles in the back yard!

  109. SSK I like 1-3 for Boston but we have to keep an eye on the southern moisture. Right now I think it stays just to the south and east. Timing is overnight Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Wildcard is the southern moisture which would catch eastern MA Thursday midday-afternoon but may only clip Cape Cod.

  110. From NWS for Thursday

    QPF DRAWS MUCH FROM HPC VALUES AND YIELDS ROUGHLY 0.25 TO 0.40
    INCHES MELTED ACROSS THE REGION. SO VALUES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
    ARE REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN EASTERN MASS.

  111. Remember baker made an across board hiring freeze. My guess is that Boston relies on extra hires for excessive storms. Just a guess. However, across the board without doing his due diligence is boneheaded. Not even an opinion. A fact. So plowing may be part bakers also.

    1. I wonder if a last minute/second change of mind might still happen.

      Public feedback usually can make a difference and you’d have to be not listening to hear what people are thinking …..

      I dont know who, but maybe someone steps in with an outside the box solution, given the current snow situation in the city.

    3. Vicki, I’m not sure who’s to blame… Baker, Walsh or maybe just Mother Nature, but I have to say that in the past 15 years I’ve lived in Boston this is the worst I’ve seen our local neighborhood streets, and that include pot-holes! You know it’s bad when the streets of Cambridge are in better shape than Boston’s, and that was the case this morning!

  113. Working on a new blog while I watch some Beanpot hockey.
    Patience please as I’m a little on the slow side. Suffering an episode of atrial fibrillation, which slows me significantly until it passes.

    1. TK. Please. We do not need an update. We need you feeling 100%. Rest. Look at the diamond fairies on the snow and enjoy.

  114. I second what the others have said. Health comes first, TK. Weather, however much we’re obsessed by it, comes a distant second.

    Take care.

  116. 0z NAM is out to sea with the Thursday storm but still drops a general 1-3″ with the frontal passage, perhaps a bit more on the Cape. Sounds like a reasonable call at this point. I think the NWS 2-5″ numbers are a bit too high.

  122. You are all too kind. I’ll be ok. I am resting, which during these episodes is actually best accomplished sitting up versus lying down. The a-fib episodes thankfully are infrequent, maybe a couple times a year, but just a part of the heart condition that runs in the family on mom’s side. I continue to take the same medication which works 99% of the time. I’ll take that stat. My doc and I have agreed on a 24 hour rule. If it doesn’t improve in 24 hours, call him or head to the hospital. The last 3 times it has fixed itself within 24 hours. 🙂 I’m sure it will this time as well. Thanks for the kind words again. I am looking over the new guidance anyway because that’s just what I do. The distraction is nice. 😀

  125. Yeah I just heard them from Pete. Several inches and then a foot! TK have you seen 00z GFS looks like it wants to snow until Tuesday. What are your thoughts?

  126. Yes, I’d say a little too early for numbers. LOL!!

    0z gfs harmless for Thursday/Friday. But Sunday night – Tuesday night. Wow…

  128. Well of course it’s too far away to lock anything, but as JMA and I have both said during the past 24 hours, “the atmosphere wants to snow”… We get into those pattern sometimes for a while and it’s hard to shake them. At the very least, we have a watcher.

  129. GFS depicts a long duration event – sun pm to tues pm. A foot for nearly all of the state, with Boston metro 16-20in. Just one run, will inevitably change, but thought I’d share!

  130. Good morning!!! Heading into Boston for the parade today, 1st I have some errands and coffee to get, quick meeting from 8:30-9:00.

    Can anybody believe the Patriots are 4 Time Champions?? Wow!!!

    There’s less than a quarter inch of melted precip with this next storm, thinking 1-2 inches if we are lucky, basically from the historic snow the past 10 days this will be a non event. Continuing the celebration!!!! Very very busy month ahead, and it only gets busier beyond that. Good day!!! 🙂

    I can’t wait till Brady wins his 5th Lombardy next year, and Bill wins his 7th Lombardy!! Unbelievable stuff!!!

    1. I work across from the Pru. Suggest you give yourself time. Roads, parking and the T are not the best.

      1. Thanks!! Leaving here around 830 arriving at south station around 9:30, then going toward common area and gonna walk with them from there, gonna be awesome!!! 4 Time Champions!!!

    1. Actually it starts on the 8th, not the 9th and the above map does not
      show it all. There is more, bring boston area near the 14 inch mark.

  134. As we look out into mid February, school vacation week ……

    Middle of that week is a new moon and the next day, it is @perigee.

    Monster astronomical tides from about Tuesday thru Sunday of school vacation week.

    IF any kind of decent onshore flow during a storm were to occur that week ……

  135. The ensembles want to SUPPRESS next week’s system.
    Euro, GFS anc CMC. So we shall see on that one.

    Tonight’s seems like virtually NOTHING at this point, unless there is a surprise.

    I certainly thought tonight would be more. Oops.

    1. Not making a forecast, just reporting model output.

      Frankly, there has been talk about that system being suppressed. Eric Fisher discussed that possibility on the 11PM broadcast last night. It’s a long way off and as TK and JMA said, the atmosphere wants to snow. So we shall see.

      I point it out because suppression is a distinct possibility. Not saying it will be, just that it is “possible”.

      We shall continue to watch. 😀

      1. Yeah, I’m not giving you a hard time- just a pep talk. 🙂

        There’s over 2″ qpf not very far south from here as the crow flies on the recent GFS (over 2″ Atlantic City for example)

        We’re on a string of high snow total storms I think we’ve got at least one more to go.

          1. We need a storm to develop with a little more umph to keep the cold air mixed in. That long duration easterly fetch may eventually bring in enough marine air to change to rain even inland even if only at the tail end.

            1. Near the beginning of that event, it looked
              like some serious Arctic air and it looked as though there would be considerable OCEAN EFFECT snows. With that airmass, I don’t see HOW it could ever rain. Doesn’t quite make sense to me.

              Also, that was the FACUCKTA 6Z run.
              I’d like to analyze the 12Z run and see
              what we have. 😀

              1. Yeah, I’m just looking at where the wind is coming from and the overall flow. Not paying a whole lot of attention yet to the surface maps still.

    3. My brother moved to a warmer climate that one year got an inch of snow on a freak storm. Whole city shut down. When he moved he happened to bring his cheap electric snow thrower. He said he was king of his cul de sac.

  139. MBTA is asking people to carpool to the parade this morning and the Mayor is asking people to take the MBTA. LOL! What a cluster#*+@

    ONE TERM MAYOR. I’m pissed!

      1. I said it would be an utter disaster.

        My commute in was considerably longer today. Took 20 minutes longer than normal, but I planned on that.

        Saw a but case woman riding a bicycle on snow covered roads!
        INSANE!

        Good luck with the parade.

        As for the MAYOR, he is an IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  142. Morning all. Still in a-fib. Trying some tricks today to kick it back to normal. Will update when I can.

  143. I think it might snow in easternmost Mass in the Sat-Mon timeframe, even if low pressure tracked over Jacksonville, FL.

    Just the position of the high, if indeed it centers in central Quebec and slowly translates eastward, is probably going to be enough to throw some snow into eastern New England. It might be a few inches over a couple days, but, I cant imagine it would be a totally dry scenario either.

    1. With that kind of air mass the instability over the ocean could be extreme.
      I could envision a Buffalo scenario developing. The models “may” not
      pick up on that enough. At the very least, it needs to be watched carefully.

  144. Maybe Mr Walsh should take a cue from Mayor Menino and ride a few snow plows. People often laughed at him, but there was a method to his madness. Big weather events have been known to ruin politicians. This guy is close, unless he takes the reins and gets things under control.

        1. I saw him on TV last night and almost PUKED.

          My wife and I discussed him and both of us agreed that
          he was NOT very intelligent. Menino, despite his speach
          impediment, was NOT dumb. He was brilliant.

  145. Make sure if your stuck in traffic, when u see the police up front of 3 buses get out of the way!! The superbowl world champions are coming through 🙂 they are just leaving foxboro 🙂

    1. Sure, they’ll get into the City, but NOT all of the frustrated workers trying
      to get here. GO FIGURE.

  146. It’s hard to defend both Baker and Walsh in terms of inconsistent management of a set of quite manageable circumstances. I’ll give you one example. On my 5-mile run in the morning about 2 miles are still not plowed. That in itself is NOT an issue. I understand where priorities lie. However, there are un-plowed segments that belong to the State Police barracks! Walsh made it a point to fine John Kerry for not keeping his sidewalk clear. Okay. But, c’mon, mayor, there is not excuse for not clearing the sidewalks and pathways surrounding the State Police barracks.

    1. They are well understaffed and he froze hiring so perhaps he figures they don’t have enough troopers to require being fully plowed??? Just guessing here 😉

  148. This just shows how the Boston area needs to get with the program and build better infrastructure and not be 30 yrs behind the rest of America, people are so worried about traffix, build wider highways and better trains, so outdated 🙂

  149. Weather reassurance please: I know people don’t know what they are talking about, but many people here at my school are saying that we’re expecting 6 inches of snow tomorrow?? Has something changed? We’re in Milton, MA

  150. I think this is a general 1-3 inches of snow across SNE. Watch for slippery spots tomorrow afternoon.
    The bigger deal is late weekend early next week as we MIGHT be dealing with a prolonged period of unsettled weather which COULD result in a good dumping of snow. I saw on TWC earlier the EURO is putting out 12-18 inches over a period of a couple of days.

  151. Reading that part of the forecast from the NWS out of Upton, NY felt like reading a novel. That had to be one of the longest paragraphs of I have read for a discussion. I think its one of those situations its not going to snow constantly during that time but will add up. That high MIGHT supress this and make it a Mid Atlantic event.

  152. I’m really curious to see how the sun-early next week event unfolds. Looks like a very strange event so far on models

  153. Yes, Boston definitely needs improvements on the highways and rail system. They should also check their priorities as there is NO WAY a bunch of over paid football players riding in duck boats should trump people who are trying to get to work and make a living. Wake up!!! Don’t get me wrong…I am a Pats fan but this is just plain wrong.

  154. Just landed in Baltimore. Bare ground. Supposed to be 49 here today. Sunny. Gonna feel like a freaking hear wave.

          1. Thanks for the tip OS! My mind went immediately “unpure” with your comment. Lol. Can’t take the child out of me sometimes!

            Glad you reminded me though because I would have probably gone to some chain like always

  156. Almost there and yes loads of patriots fans on the trains standing up, super dangerous but I’m sitting, totally overloaded!! But to be there at the parade I would just about anything to be there, so these inconveniences are worth it. I feel embarrassed for Boston for not having the man power or infrastructure to do stuff like this in winter, but it just shows how far behind in infrastructure we really are. Hopefully we wake up and people’s eyes open and demand improvements on all infrastructure. 4 Time Champions!!!!’ Good day!!

    2. Hope we wake up and realize that this parade is just plain STUPID!!! And by the way, your comment about being inconvienced on a crowded train is about the most ridiculous comment I have heard in some time. How about the inconvenience to people who are trying to get to work, a hospital, the airport, etc…? I hope all of the duck boats get stuck in snow banks.

      Okay..rant over.

  157. Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 2m2 minutes ago
    Anxious to see new guidance for the Sunday-Tuesday scenario!

  158. I don’t blame the mayor. We don’t have the manpower or resources to handel this type of snow. I bet the mayor doesn’t have the final say in the parade. It’s Baker who does.

    1. They’re both IDIOTS imho.

      There is NO WAY this parade should have been held. NO WAY!

      No getting around that.

    2. Walsh made it clear they were going to have it. And everyone praised Menino not Patrick for the previous ones. It’s on the mayor. 🙂

  159. Gil Simmons was saying yesterday he expects this active pattern to continue into early March.
    He is a Very good meteorologist and he does not hype anything. When he puts on the 8 day stay tuned watching closely you know there is potential for something.

  160. Get the infrastructure a city like this should have, people need to stop fighting no new rails and no new highways, it’s riduculous, there are millions if not more lol of patriots fans, unbelievable

    Rant over

    1. Again, agreed the infrastructure needs improvement. But until that time the city needs to think twice before hosting this type of parade in these conditions.

  161. There are 2 things these people are talking about, the 4 time champions and how embarrassing the transportation is in this city, what a bunch of out dated bunch of junk

      1. But try to get people to pay increased taxes to pay for all of the infrastructure improvements needed in the city and state.

        1. Or…..the government can stop wasting hundreds of millions of dollars every year and cry poor each time something needs to be fixed. Income taxes were “suppose” to be temporary. How’s that working out? We already pay a gas tax, excise tax, tolls, income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, registration fees…..where does the madness end?

  162. Hey,

    12Z GFS has the next event STARTING Saturday afternoon with light snow.
    Waiting for the rest of the run to see just HOW long that thing lasts. 😀

  165. THE BETTER CHC FOR LGT SNOW COME ON SAT AS THE
    MOISTURE DEEPENS. THE GFS SHOWS A BAND OF H7 MOISTURE ALL THE WAY
    FROM THE PACIFIC INTO BC THRU CANADA AND DIRECTLY INTO THE NERN
    CONUS. DID NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THIS FAR OUT AS THE
    MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH SAT PCPN CHANCES…BUT THERE
    MIGHT BE A NEED TO INCR POPS IF THE WETTER TREND CONTINUES FROM THE
    RELATIVELY LOW CHC CATEGORY. POPS WERE EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE
    OVERNIGHT PERIOD SAT NGT HOWEVER. THE H3 130KT JET APPROACHES AND
    BRINGS H5 SHRTWV ENERGY THRU. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
    PRODUCE SOME LGT ACCUMS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

    2. Please tell me you are kidding. My kids are ready to kill each other with all of the “quality” time they’ve had together at home. Thankfully they are back to school today and hope it stays that way for a while!

    4. Was it you who mentioned national guard? I love snow but when it gets to the point where record breaking storms occur every few years, I am not a fan. Too much destruction and risk to life. We have had three of the top six storms this century. One was only three years prior to the century. Then we have to go back to 1969 and 1978.

  168. I know its early in the game here but I wonder if this COULD be like February 1968 1969 I forgot the year where it snowed for over 72 hours. I maybe off with the time to and I know someone here will corrected me on that.

    1. Feb 1969

      Snowed for something like 100 hours straight.

      This one so far is up to about 72 hours at least on this ONE model run.

      SNOWMAGEDDON!!!!!

  169. I am on the top balcony of my bldg. on Boylston facing the Pru. Running back and forth to my cube, waiting for them to come. What a VIEW I have!!

  173. Closed 500MB circulation off of NC on Tuesday afternoon. IF that system
    makes it up here, )(!)@#()!@()#*()!@*(#*!(@)#(!*@(#*!@(*#(

  177. Waiting for TK to come on and say that run makes no sense whatsoever. For the sake of snow removal, i hope he does!

  178. Here’s what I’m taking from that ….

    I’m going to focus on the model’s consistency on where the high sets up..

    Persistent easterly flow (maybe at 850mb ??) with polar/arctic air at the surface is going to crank out snow ….

    1. Absolutely agreed, if it takes place as depicted in this one model run. Even us snow lovers are crying uncle, WW.

      1. Agreed.

        My wife is worried that a total state of emergency will be delcared and we won’t even be able to get food.

        This is beginning to get really serious.

        Here’s hoping.

    1. Scott Zolak ‏@scottzolak 2m2 minutes ago
      HERE WE GO !!! THANKS TO ALL WHO ENDURED GETTING HERE, PLAYERS AMAZED

  182. The snow banks where I am are starting to get up there. Nothing like back in Jaunary 2011 or after the Blizzard of 2013. IF that happens as what the latest run of the GFS is showing were going have problems just like you guys when it comes to roofs and where to put the snow. There is not going to be much melting prior to this POTENTIAL event.
    The silver lining its still many days away and this will PROBABLY change.

  184. not for nothing, but on that GFS run there is another clipper right behind it for Thurs-Fri time frame and it looks to be moderate or perhaps more as well

  185. AND… we have that cutoff low in the SoutWest. What will become of that.

    I SMELL TROUBLE ahead with that.

  186. TK…hope you are resting or getting the attention you need for your A-Fib. When you are fully recovered please come back and tell me that the latest GFS was completely fictional. Thank you.

  188. Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
    Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9m9 minutes ago
    Latest GFS Northeast snowfall update: Possible *4 day snowfall event* starting Saturday eve; Net snowfall 15-20″ #BOS

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9A6jJcIAAAVy6U.png

    This assumes a 10:1 ratio. Based on instant weather maps, ratio looks to be 12:1 or so.
    Perhaps a tad more.

  190. The setup coming Sat thru Tue reminds me of Feb 1969 and the infamous 100 – hour Storm.

    And yes it is possible.

    2. Man OS I miss the old days of a month ago when you were calling this winter putrid. No joke…I do miss it. Not a good winter if you aren’t into snow like I am. Batten down the hatches!

  192. Not as much melting going on as I thought today. Temps hovering around or just below freezing coupled with overcast skies

  193. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 21m21 minutes ago
    @gilsimmons Looks like a much more challenging forecast for the weekend and early next week..amazing pattern

    mons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 2m2 minutes ago
    @HarveyWCVB Yes!!!! Will we see solutions merge on one deep low?? I like 1034mb High to N & Atlantic fetch!

    1. I was 13 at the time of this storm and vividly remember the drifts, etc. I lived in a Campinelli ranch in Holbrook at the time and remember my dog almost making up to roof on one drift.

      2. I was three but remember being the one elected by friends to call Katy Gibbs daily to make sure classes were cancelled. I also remember serious problems with some plowing for the town. I know a reader took exception to that but it is what it is. Was the only time for a town with an excellent reputation for plowing.

    2. That is the big storm that I remember as a kid, I would have been 6. I just remember my driveway having huge snow banks way above my height. If I remember right, we a number smaller cedars out in front of house and few came down in that storm.

  195. Is it still going to snow tonight? How much for Boston and what time should it arrive. Thanks. What’s the chances of this weekend storm happening.

    2. John, I don’t think it is going to snow around Boston tonight. Whatever falls will be first thing tomorrow morning into early afternoon with just a thick coating to maybe an inch. As for early next week, it is 99% likely for a big snow…UGH!

  196. Hopefully most of the parade crowd will leave and go onto their MBTA trains for home soon after the event is over so that the normal rush hour crowd can do the same.

    If the parade crowd lingers around the city for the rest of the afternoon, however…all bets are off. 😉

  197. Nice to see two great meteorologist in Gil and Harvey tweeting back and forth.
    Thanks for posting that Old Salty.
    I could just imagine what the grocery stores will be like later this week. if what the 12z GFS is showing happens.

  198. Correct me if I’m wrong–granted that much snow would be bad given the existing snow pack, but over the course of 4 days it should be somewhat easier to manage, hopefully?

  199. Every time someone talks about 1978, my mother always chimes in with, “I might have a longer memory, but I think 1969 was worse.”

      1. Good point, but that model is also very warm and brings the rain/snow line close, so the 10:1 ratio may not be that far off.

        1. In fact, we actually mix on the GGEM for many hours after 16-18″ up front. Talk about roof collapses. Fortunately this model has been a piece of crap all winter!

  202. DGEX snows on us for 72 straight hours, the first 54 or so of which are overrunning, with the last 18 being a full fledged noreaster!

      2. Yes, aka I would take it with a grain of salt at this point though its a scary scenario if it were to ever occur.

  204. Euro has been so wrong this winter that I’d be inclined to almost ignore it. I recall a few days ago that the Euro predicted 1 to 2 feet of snow tomorrow. That isn’t going to happen. I think that the other models have been more accurate and should not be discounted.

    Long duration events with light to moderate snow can be as crippling as progressive storms, especially given all the snow we currently have on the ground. From what I’m seeing the worst of the storm may be Monday. Despite it not being nearly as bad as a blizzard, I would consider a travel ban on Monday to allow for a better clean-up, fewer gridlock situations, etc … Also, the mayor and governor should be urging people who can telecommute to do so. I’m surprised I haven’t heard more messages on this. Commuting is extremely inefficient for many during this intense snowy period we’re in. If it’s possible to work from home, it should be encouraged as much as possible.

    1. The problem with long duration events as far as road clean-up is that plows / salters are just constantly on the roads and getting around let alone finding places to park is just painful … yet people will do it. I for one hope that the models are overdone.

      I won’t tell you how old I was in 1969. 🙂

        1. Maybe you can help them since this is what makes you tick, They fall behind doing your street during a blizzard and then be pissed your streets not plowed. Keep rooting for all the havoc, it’s good for ya soul 🙂

  205. 12z Euro is basically just a long duration light snow event. Coastal storm develops but drifts out to sea. Some overrunning light snow starts Sat Pm with 12″+ across SNE by Tues AM.

    I am reading on AmericanWx that the model output estimates a 50″ snowpack across Eastern MA by Tues AM.

    1. Its interesting each model delivers 12+” of snow but in different ways. Bottom line, significantly more snow

  207. Soliciting EURO snow map for next week.

    With the site available to me IMPOSSIBLE to tell what’s going on.

    GFS and CMC are FRIGHTFUL!!!

  208. At this point all major models are projecting 12-20″ across SNE by Tuesday. However, it is only Wednesday and this is a day 4 and 5 storm. It can and will change over the next few days I am sure.

    1. Really. You sure of that? That’s a pretty bold statement.

      I wouldn’t day that at this point. With more info as we get closer, perhaps.
      BUT not now.

  210. Just a gut feeling. I have seen projections in the past 4 5 days out that are unbelievable and then as we get closer they do come down some. I think a foot right now is what a lot of areas get but there will be some who get higher depending on where heavy bands setup shotp. Even with a foot its going add to an already bad situation up there since there isn’t going to be much melting between now and then.

  211. i would wait until friday to really start talking about this snow potential, a lot can change between now and then. would want to see how the models show it after the small event thursday

  213. 850 mb map winds on EURO ….

    at 96 hrs, you get overrunning snow because of SW flow rising over a polar/arctic airmass

    at 120 hrs, you get a moist ESE flow riding over a continued polar/artic airmass.

    While it may snow a bit Saturday and a bit Tuesday, I think the days to focus on are Sunday and Monday. Crazy !!!

    The last time I recall seeing an 850 mb setup like the one I see on the EURO for Monday (120 hrs) was that March storm a couple of years ago, where an actual storm system was so far away, but at higher levels, the moisture was still streaming into southern New England at higher levels. And, I’m sure we can all recall how productive that system turned out to be. School wasn’t called in Boston and 10 or 12′ later, people were not happy.

    2. Remember that one well. In addition at 500MB there was an easterly flow
      due to a hugely elongated West to East Closed low at 500MB supplying
      a long Easterly fetch. It was Awesome.

      I remember we were ALL over that one. It was fun.

      how does the Euro 500mb look? Just checked. NOT EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE.
      So this WILL be a DIFFERENT ANIMAL.

  214. March 2013 unbelivable a storm 600 miles away produced widespread double digit snowfall amounts for eastern new england. Even areas in the western new england got 6 inches from that.

  215. Remarkable split (almost 50-50) in terms of weather in the Eastern and Western halves of the U.S. Warm to very warm in the Western half. Cold to very cold in most of the Eastern half. Looks to stay that way for a while.

    1. Pattern is locked for sure !!

      Perhaps this means when we get to summer it can be a western trof and an eastern ridge, 90F + with high humidity all summer. 🙂 🙂

      The extremes of both seasons. 🙂

      1. TOM that is my fear. I am afraid we will have like 30+ days
        of 90 Degree heat. I’ll have to spend the Summer somewhere
        on the shores of Hudson Bay in order for my wife to survive.

        I am REALLY worried about this SUMMER!

        1. Nova Scotia ….. On the Bay of Fundy. That water is FRIGID !

          Lot of fog, but the air is never warm. 🙂 🙂

          1. And on the flip side go to the northwest side of Nova Scotia (near New Glasgow) and the water temps in the Northumberland Strait are some of the warmest north of Virginia in the summer.

  216. Tom I have a feeling a lot more heat and humidity compared to last summer. Last summer was one of the best I could remember with a lot of days that were comfortable open the windows and let the fresh air in.

    1. It was …….. we were in the Carolinas in July and while there was some brutal heat/humidity occasionally …………. even down there, I remember there being some mid 80F days with 55-60F dewpoints, which is unheard of in those parts in mid summer.

      1. It sure is. My inlaws used to migrate from charleston to here and then their daughters in Spokane every summer.

  218. A fib continues. 20 hours and counting. Should be over soon (I hope).

    I’d update now but I have 2 hours of errands to run. I’ll get to it as soon as possible. 🙂

    DVR’d the parade to watch later.

    Bruins tonight but may have to DVR them too…

    1. What took them so long. We’re not Mets and we KNEW it was only
      going to be an inch or 2 at best if that. 😀

      Oh well.

  223. Feel better TK!!

    I’m personally not yet impressed by the setup for next week. I’m sure there will be some snow, but there’s a lot that will have to come together. I’d prefer to wait another 36-48 hours and get that energy sampled before speculating much at all.

    2. Wx, I’m with you, however, it “may” be a big snow producer even though
      it doesn’t look impressive

  225. 18z gfs continues with the theme of two feet in eastern portions through end of day on Tuesday. Showing some definite consistency. We shall see.

    1. Too early to speculate on snowfall amounts but as I said, this one has far greater potential than its predecessor (tomorrow).

      1. Agreed on both counts – just pointing out one run of one model and how its related to its other runs. 🙂

  226. Looks like from the climate data section of the NWS site, there was .78 qpf to the 16.2 inches of snow. That is over a 20:1 ratio.

    2. Wasn’t criticizing him, just pointing out his early forecast. I haven’t minded Pete this year either

      2. I knew you were not. Didn’t mean for it to sound as if I did. Just an observation.

        Arod you don’t have to hate to say it. It is true a good deal of the time 🙂

  229. Some serious melting and compacting going on this evening. 38F in the city and it will not go below freezing tonight. That will help reduce the snow-pack a little. My guess is that it’s compacted and melted at least 5 inches today alone. I realize that there won’t be much melting after tonight. But, I’m glad we got some melting in today.

    1. I was just about to chime in on this too. 🙂

      Nearing 40F southeast of Boston and dewpoints coming up towards 32F.

  230. To add to the discussion above, this from the NWS regarding the system early next week:

    BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-PACIFIC…IT IS TOO
    SOON TO BE CONFIDENT ON DETAILS. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER
    THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES ASHORE IN THE WEST.

    This tells me that there is plenty of wiggle room from mostly a Miss to a Monster
    and anything in between. We’ll just have to wait and see. 😀

  231. I wonder if some will overlook the next storm since it won’t be your typical storm with heavy snow. Light slowly accumulating snow for the duration. No strong winds or poor visibility, people will say it’s not that bad.

  236. TV Mets … wisely … not willing to put snow maps up for this weekend’s event.

    Wind Chill Advisory for some areas tonight.

    1. Oh, I couldn’t tell with WUndermap. It looked pathetic.

      What does it crank out. Most curious. Snow map? Tx

  238. Good morning. 06Z GFS still wants to dump snow on us over the weekend/early
    next week. That is at least 4 consecutive runs. If nothing else, the GFS is consistent.

    However, as someone else stated yesterday (WxWatcher?), I’m NOT impressed with
    this set up right now. I see some overrunning precip, perhaps some Ocean Effect.
    I don’t see any decent precip on the map. Long duration event with mostly light
    snow, perhaps with some moderate periods here and there.

    AND I don’t see as much support for a similar result from the other models.

    Here is the CMC total snowmap (Includes what little falls today)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015020500/gem_asnow_neus_27.png

    Not nearly what the GFS has.

    GFS 10:1

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020506/gfs_asnow_neus_31.png

    GFS with Kuchura snow algorithm:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=240

    Anyone with EURO totals and/or map? Can’t tell from Wundermap, but it looks like
    Crap to me.

  239. The key with that is this will be a stretched out snow event with periods of snow at different intensity.
    Before we get there a little light snow which could create slippery spots then a temperature drop behind this front and wind chills tonight below zero in a good part of SNE.

  240. From NWS

    TONIGHT…STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO USHER IN UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

    1. And this for the Weekend:

      AN ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES A BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR WEAK FRONTAL WAVES TO DEVELOP AND TRAVERSES. ALSO ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DEEP COLD AIR ALONG WITH MOIST POLAR MARITIME FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND.

      The area in BOLD in the wild card this weekend before a possible stronger
      short wave possibly brings more significant synoptic snow.

      The moist Polar Snow can DELIVER BIG TIME SNOWS, even if no one is
      forecasting it. It is truly a WILD CARD here capable of delivering a BIG SUPRISE. We’ll have to watch for that one!

      2. FWIW the DGEX which is an extension of the NAM CRANKS
        MUCH HEAVIER SNOW over Eastern Sections and it
        looks to me as if this is OCEAN EFFECT and NOT Synoptic.
        If this is using the NAM higher resolution, then perhaps
        this is the first model to start picking up on possible Ocean Effect.

        Here is one panel that shows it.

        Please comment on whether anyone thinks it’s synoptic
        vs ocean effect.

        http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f102.gif

  241. Meteorlogist Gil Simmons was saying 2-4 both Sunday and Monday but COULD have 8 plus inches in some areas when all is said and done. I still think a lot of areas will be closer to a foot when all is said and done.

    1. He is being extremely conservative. He may very well be correct, but I
      think he is low on this. We shall see. One thing, your location is NOT favorable
      for Atlantic Ocean Effect snows.

    1. My Eyes may be deceiving me, but on the water vapor loops it almost
      looks like we are getting some sort of interaction with the Arctic Front and the off shore moisture? Weird.

  248. Morning all.

    Heart unchanged. Taking a sick day and calling doc in a little while. I’ll either end up at his office or the hospital. However, being able to sit in my chair for a while I will be able to finally update the blog. Look for it by about 8AM. I will tell you anyway. 🙂

    A couple points leading to that…

    Snow this morning, as expected, won’t amount to very much as the ribbon of it translates NW to SE across the area. The bigger story today will be the temp drop later. On satellite you can already see the offshore storm development. That will miss.

    The “event”. Ok. Before it even gets out of control, let’s reel it in. The media is going to make you think the end of the world is coming over a span of 4 days. It’s not. A long duration snowy period is likely, yes. The VAST MAJORITY of the time it will likely be light snow, some of the time moderate, and just an outside shot of being impacted by a slightly stronger low near the end of this period (Monday to early Tuesday). These are the types of events that most of the time produce several inches to maybe a foot or so of snow over 4 days with comparatively low impact. And people will disagree saying that with all the snow on the ground it’s that much worse. And yes, it’s more difficult, but not as bad as you think. It’s been quite a while since we’ve endured a 3 or 4 day “slow snow”.

    I’ll be back…

  250. TK, take good care of yourself!

    Lots of melting last night, which is good. I’d say that at least 10 inches have compacted and/or melted in the past two days. Not much melting between now and late next week, however.

    I do think we see more than a foot of snow in Boston with the long duration event. My early guess is 16 inches over the 3 day period.

  251. We had almost an inch of wet wet heavy snow this morning in Groveland at 6 this morning and snowing decently….drove south and got to around Middleton and barely anything….radar echoes look decent to the west

      1. I love the snow, so I’ll never complain when it snows even if it results in a long commute…just something peaceful and different about snow…..It’s a lot prettier out of the city too…the brown snowbanks are just plain ugly

        1. I am really worried about more damage if we get a big storm but darned if I don’t love watching it so completely agree with you. It does feel peaceful and also seems to take a person back to memories of days gone by.

  257. Snowing lightly in Sudbury, now. Looks like about an inch of new snow. Who can tell how much with all that snow out there? 🙂

  258. Feel better, TK.

    It will be interesting to see how models are affected once the energy for our next system makes it on shore. If we are to trust the consistency of the GFS at this point, we are looking more like 16-24 inches of the period in question. Of course, it is too soon to trust any model output for amounts. And while no outcome should be overhyped, we saw the other day what happens when proper precautions aren’t taken.

  260. I actually think NWS got this mini `storm’ right. They had that 4-6 inch area in Northern Mass. and Southern NH, and that will verify in most places. I also think Boston gets at least an inch.

  262. On another note…can we have an Olympics when we can’t remove snow, keep the T running, and get the date right for a parade?

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