Thursday AM Update

267 Comments

8:42AM

Good morning all. I apologize for the lack of updates the last couple of days. Been dealing with 2 health issues that have slowed me down. Here is a short update to catch you up on my thoughts regarding the upcoming weather…

SUMMARY…
Arctic cold front slides through southern New England from northwest to southeast today with a band of snow, though fairly minor in accumulation will result in slick spots, especially where some overnight light rain/freezing rain fell in relatively mild air. Behind this front the snow lingers briefly then ends, and temperatures plunge as Arctic air moves in with winds picking up. Anything on the ground will freeze solid and the air will have a nasty bite to it right into Friday as the wind stays up, though Friday’s weather will be dry. Saturday through Tuesday will be a stretch of snowy weather as a frontal boundary sets up just to the south with ripples of low pressure riding along it, and a big Arctic high centered to the north of the region in eastern Canada. This is the type of set up that will produce snow much of the time, but light to moderate in intensity for the balance of the event. Accumulation mounts up, but fairly slowly. We’ll just have to watch for one slightly stronger low coming along Monday or early Tuesday that could enhance snow across the region. Otherwise some of the higher prolonged snow totals would be near eastern coastal areas due to ocean enhancement. These details will be fine-tuned as we get closer… Dry and cold weather is expected to return by the middle of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with a band of snow moving northwest to southeast across the region morning-midday followed by a clearing trend later in the day. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches northwest of Boston, coating to 2 inches Boston southeastward. Temperatures fall from the 30s to the 20s southern MA and RI, 20s to the 10s northwest of Boston. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -10 to +5, coldest in south central NH and north central MA, least cold urban centers and South Coast. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -10 to -20.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM light snow. Low 10. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 15. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Snow ending. Clearing. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 20.

267 thoughts on “Thursday AM Update”

  1. Please feel better soon, and thanks for all of your efforts with this blog, especially during the past couple of weeks!

  2. Many thanks TK. Hope you’re feeling better. Did you use your 24 hour rule and go to the Hospital OR did it resolve?

    1. I went a bit over 24 hours and it’s still going. I have a call in to the doc now. They should be calling me back any moment. I’m either going to his office or straight to the hospital. We shall see.

      Probably going to have to correct this with an IV medication. That’s what did it the time a couple years ago when it was not resolving on its own. The last 2 times it has resolved on its own within one to several hours.

      1. Are you a candidate for a Cardiac ablation procedure?

        We have 2 friends who were successfully treated by this
        procedure. Not sure it applies in your case.

        Best of luck and take care.

        1. If the episodes became frequent enough, I would be. But this will only be the 2nd time in over 2 years that I’d need to actively go get help to shut it down.

  3. I am happy to see that you indicated higher snow totals this weekend due
    to OCEAN ENHANCEMENT. I posted on previous blog that I think that could
    be a WILD CARD. If this sets up the way I think it might, this could be a full blown
    OCEAN EFFECT snow storm for Eastern Sections. Doesn’t happen very often
    but it does and can happen. I think the Highest amount I have witnessed was about
    8 inches in the City, but South Shore Ocean Effect belts have received over a foot
    from this type of set up..

    AND that is in addition to any synoptic snow that falls and does NOT
    include the possible larger System Monday.

    This will be a very interesting stretch to say the least.

  4. Regarding today. Snowing on the way in and while I was sitting in traffic close to my office, it briefly changed to RAIN. Went right back to SNOW and is SNOWING
    pretty good right now. Pretty strong echoes on radar.

    Visibility here just about 2/3 mile as I can barely decipher MISSION CHURCH
    which is EXACTLY 2/3 of a mile from here. So this is pretty serious SNOW
    falling now.

    1. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 16s17 seconds ago
      Give it until 11am around Boston for heavy band to be through. Around 2 inches common, but 3 not out of question.

    2. Another overachieving event, at least at the moment.

      I wonder if it maintains its intensity or decreases in intensity as it heads southeastward …….

  7. I’ve been trying to conceptualize getting big snowfall amounts with this next event so I added some math into the equation. Say it snows continuously at varying intensities for 72hrs. With an average of 1/4″ per hour rates that comes out to 18″ of snow during that period. If we get that stronger low toward the end, that number will increase.

  9. I think the only thing that saves us for this is the snowfall will be light in intensity. If roadways are pre-treated, the snow shouldn’t accumulate very much.

      1. HA odd. I sit next to a window and it was like night out for a few minutes. A tad brighter now. Shovel amounts in Woburn?

  13. Some of those radar returns southwest of Boston look pretty impressive. Maybe some 2″ per hour rates in there. Still not loving the setup for Sunday-Tuesday. I think the event ends up being shorter duration and less impactful than most of the models show. Still too early for specific numbers, but over three days I think most places come in under a foot. Just a lot of hours with snow.

      1. How wide of an area will be affected by ocean affect snows? I feel there could be a very small area (south shore) that will get much more

        1. We’ll be able to tell MORE when the HIGH resolution
          Models get into range, but I posted this on the
          previous blog. Have a look at these panels
          from the DGEX (extension of NAM)

          Looks like OCEAN EFFECT to me. I’d say perhaps overrunning, but notice the precip enhancement near the coast. STONG signal that it’s OCEAN EFFECT

          http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f102.gif

          http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f108.gif

          http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f114.gif

          http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f120.gif

          That, I believe, is some pretty serious OCEAN EFFECT SNOW depicted on that model. What else could it possibly be?

          1. Thanks OS, very interesting. I’m skeptical of the extent of the ocean affect, they usually dont come as far inland as depicted on there, but we shall see

  16. WOW!!! HEAVY SNOW now vis 1/4 mile. It’s INSANE out there!!!

    Un freakin believable. Sorry, but NO ONE CALLED FOR THIS!!!!

  17. Ginormous flakes coming down here, feel like we’re in a snow globe and someone just shook it very hard

    1. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 8m8 minutes ago
      Heads up RI and E MA, heavy snow coming your way. Quick 1-2 inches possible. Some melts, may start as rain:

      1. There was no advisory but there was a special weather statement for possible slippery road conditions due to a snowband coming through. Probably not a strong enough statement though to get people to notice.

        1. They must have updated it recently but there was one in place this morning for my county prior to 8am

  19. On another note…can we have an Olympics when we can’t remove snow properly, keep the T running, and get the date right for a parade?

    1. I was thinking the same exact thing last night Longshot. I hope the Olympic committee didnt take note of how things were handled the past few days in Boston bc that may have put their chances in jeopardy

  21. 12Z NAM snowmap (not including today’s snow) has the axis of the first impulse of synoptic snow well into central and northern NE. Shows some ocean enhancement very well though into NE MA. How far inland that penetrates is the question. My guess is not far, 10 miles or less.

        1. Do u mean all those models disagree with each other, or they are all consistent and its the NAM that’s different

            1. NAM is too far N IMO. You know we’re going to be on the N side of that front with an onshore wind. There may be some synoptic snow up north but there should also be some down this way as well.

    1. You can see the echoes weakening on the NW flank now while the leading edge maintains itself for now.

  23. @JpDave13 3m3 minutes ago
    @ericfisher I am concerned about the possibility of a major ocean effect event
    this weekend. Seems like a PERFECT setup. I have seen it b4.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago
    @JpDave13 agreed keeping very close tabs on it

  24. WOW, it has been absolutely POUNDING snow here in northern CT for the past 3-4 hours and still coming down hard. We have 4″ on the ground. Of all the days they decide not to cancel or delay school. My 15 min commute took over 45 min. Roads are horrendous and spin outs everywhere. Did not expect this!!

    1. That type of stuff has been in a relatively small zone. Up this way we have yet to top 1 inch and it’s starting to wind down. The entire area is weakening now as the transfer to offshore happens.

      2. I don’t Know TK…We had nearly an inch at 6am before this band really came through up in Groveland…Bear also reported 3″ or so not that long ago in Metheun

      3. Agree the band appears to finally be starting to weaken but it has not really been localized. We have had a widespread 3-4″+ across central and northern CT as well as into central MA and Worcester County. NWS spotter reports of up to 8″ in Worcester Co.

        At lot of people were caught off guard here (including school districts) as most forecasts last night were calling for a coating to 2″. Timing is very bad.

  26. Ch. 7 has been consistently forecasting the early next week snow continuing into Tuesday night. It is the only one I have seen as most (including TK) have any snow ending during Tuesday morning.

    Is this scenario possible?? It probably could make the difference of several inches.

  27. Snow finally letting up in northern CT. We have had widespread 4″ amounts in this area, all accumulating in a 4 hour period. Wild morning!

        1. I could probably estimate if I still had my eurowx.com subscription but I let it expire. I am getting these snowmaps from other forums where people post them.

  32. Between 4-5″ in Holden, going from south to north through town. Close to 6″ in Rutland. Ashburham in N. Central MA reporting 8″ according to NWS.

    Not a very welcomed surprise….

    1. Worcester County coming in strong. I forget who pointed it out for the last storm, but important to look at the times associated with the numbers because Fitchburg only showed 4 but at 645am whereas to the west of them in Royalston they showed 7 at 10:38. So it will be interesting to see the final totals once the updated numbers are in

      1. Yeah, I agree. Not a lot of final numbers in yet in CT either. This little event definitely over-performed in CT and central MA.

  36. 12Z GFS amounts a little less than previous models but what is consistent is the locations of higher snowfall, NE MA where it looks like a persistent ocean affect snowband will set up

  37. I now understand the frustration among mets and the total lack of knowledge of the general public. A girl in my office just came in and said “there’s like 3″ of snow out there!” I can tell without even measuring there is only 1″ and that’s being generous. (although, her husband must love her tendency to overestimate) Another lady just said she heard we are getting 5-8″ in this area today. I cringe when i hear stuff like this. It’s a wonder people survive through the day.

  38. Heading to my cardiologist’s office at 1:30PM. First the EKG machine, then we’ll see where it goes from there…

    1. Still under 1 inch here. My friend up on Zion says just over 1 inch. Perhaps that small amount of elevation played a role, or just heavier strip of snow there and not there.

      1. I think so…they had the plows out and plowed in my driveway. Obviously it wasn’t a ton but a nuisance.

  41. Again thanks everyone. My cardiologist is great. Got him a couple years ago when I was in the hospital for the same reason. My PCP who was also a cardiologist passed away from leukemia. Devastating loss to the medical community. Not only one of the best doctors but also one of the nicest people you would ever know. So comforting to his patients. Glad to have this new doc though. I’m in good hands and they’ll patch me up (again).

  42. Been home sick the last two days battling this cold that’s been with me a good couple weeks now. Working all these storms and long hours with lack of sleep has made it tough to recover so finally listened to my body yesterday when it said you need to rest!!! It’s been snowing at a good clip here where I would say an inch has fell. Watching some weather reports it seems Monday night into Tuesday is the time to watch for some heavy snow. Most have it starting around midday Saturday with manageable snow . Should be interesting. We go from nothing up until a couple weeks ago and now it just does not want to stop, crazy indeed.

  43. My wife says 6″ today but I’m not home to verify. Asked her to look at the snow board. We’ll see what I get back from her.

    Could be an inch, could be 12″, who the heck knows. Lol

  44. The band, which certainly over-produced in parts of central MA (impressively) is now dying basically in place over SE MA. Offshore low taking over. Just clipping Nantucket and part of Cape Cod.

  46. Thank you TK. Putting up a new blog is above and beyond but then that is who you are.

    Wishing you a positive appointment with a quick outcome.

    I cannot believe there are 99 posts here already. Maybe I make 100.

    I cannot even measure any more so am impressed with your wife retrac that she did. There is no place that is clear enough to be accurate here.

    2. It’s possible I guess, but weren’t we worried just a day or so ago about this thing getting shunted south given the strong high to the north? Given the more northerly projection by the CMC, does it not develop a low south of us on Monday evening?

  48. Bernie had a nice video on accuweather describing the upcoming event. Biggest concern was around the ocean enhancement as a result of the arctic high to the north fetching moisture off the Atlantic. Targeted Eastern MA and Southern NH as where he feels this would most likely set up. Will be interesting to say the least. Not sure the models will be very helpful with that factor.

    1. Biggest concern was around the ocean enhancement as a result of the arctic high to the north fetching moisture off the Atlantic.

      Been saying that for awhile.

      We really have to watch that. OF course it will depend upon how it actually sets up, BUT the potential is there. We shall see. The lower resolution models
      do NOT do a good job with this feature. That’s why I said earlier when
      the feature gets in range of the high resolution models, we’ll have a little
      better idea.

  49. 12z Euro continues the northward trend. It has three rounds of precip: first two rounds are basically overrunning events Sat PM and Sunday morning while the third round is the coastal storm/main event for Sun night- Monday. But the main storm tracks closer to the coast – introduces some sleet/frz rain near the end south of the Pike and maybe even all rain Cape Cod.

    Total QPF is in the 1.0 -1.5″ range for pretty much all of SNE.

    Eurowx.com snowmap:
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=256942

    Still depicting 15″ from Boston and the Pike north, but accumulations tail off quite a bit as you head south.

  50. Maine has set a new record for most snowfall in a 10 day period.
    https://bangordailyn…-10-day-period/

    Seventy-six inches and counting.
    That’s how much snow has fallen in Eastport since Jan. 25, which is a new 10-day record for documented snowfall anywhere in Maine. The previous record of 71 inches for a 10-day period was set more than 50 years ago at Ripogenus Dam, just west of Baxter State Park in Piscataquis County, from late December 1962 to early January 1963, according to the National Weather Service.

    The need to relocate all that snow has kept people busy, according to Eastport officials, but there might be more snow on the way.

    2. I remember that. A smallish system came through giving Boston an inch of snow to Rain with SSE wind. Worcester received 7 inches. It then passed out into the gulf of Maine and Exploded and stalled. Gave down East a HUMUNGEOUS
      snow storm well totals in excess of 3 feet. Drew down unbelievably cold arctic air as well. Below zero in Boston even.

  51. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago
    This pattern is remarkably resilient. Basically extends out as far as we can see. May be a February for the books.

  52. I wonder if this northward trend is a result of better sampling? Is the energy for this system(s) even onshore yet?

  55. Hi all!
    Back from the doctor. Confirmed a-fib with EKG (normal procedure).
    I just took 300mg of flecainide acetate, the same medication that converted my a-fib to normal rhythm back in November of 2012. Now it’s wait and see…

    1. Scary times, TK – my dad has a-fib too, and just got a pacemaker put in last month. It’s helped him a lot! I know you’re young, but could that be a possibility for you, as well?

  58. Once again I can’t thank all of you enough. A great group of people here. 🙂

    Resting now and waiting to see if the drug kicks in… Still monitoring the weather of course. 😀

    3. Hi TK…It sounds as if you have paroxysmal afib, a condition where you go in and out of atrial fibrillation. Has your cardiologist considered performing a cardiac ablation where they ablate (or remove) areas of ectopic foci (irritability) within the lining of the heart? This procedure in some cases eradicates atrial fibrillation and therefore the necessity of anti-arrhythmic drugs . Just a thought but here is hoping for a successful recovery 😀

  59. Not that the 18zNAM should be trusted especially outside of 48 hours but it too has shifted significantly north. I find it hard to believe the northern trend will be what actually happens, but it’s something to follow.

    1. Beat me by mere seconds! It also brings more warming into southern sections limiting snowfall amounts

  60. 18Z NAM brings the axis of snow even further north. This isn’t just a NAM thing anymore, all models shifted this north

  61. Here’s what concerns me about the current northern trends …….

    ICE …..

    Now, instead of the high being further south and keeping the whole column cold, the further north position of the high would probably be able to supply a shallow layer of cold air, but aloft in the column would be susceptible to warmth.

    I would either hope that a northward trend further continues, but I doubt that given climatology and time of year …….. or …. ……..we see things come south again to either cause snow or a miss to the south.

    But, I dont like what I’m seeing with the positioning of the lows and highs today.

    2. I agree, regardless of what happen at the upper levels, that arctic high to the north will supply plenty of cold air at the surface for icing in areas to the south of where it remains all snow.

    1. Now fizzling, still a long, drawn out affair.

      Its just that the placement of the cold high to the north and the lows (not particularly strong) to our south, are looking like they are going to be a bit further north, at least on today’s runs.

      That COULD shift the precip and precip type scenarios a bit further north as well.

      I’ll still plan for some frozen precip at some point in the Saturday-Momday timeframe, I just dont know if it will be all snow …. Especially Boston, points southward.

        1. Thats for sure 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Just really impacts the learning process for students when you work on a big unit concept and then a bunch of snow days dont allow for repetition, so that the unit concept can be mastered.

          1. It definitely has a huge impact on the learning process. I find I have to take a few steps back when helping my boys with homework when they miss a couple of unexpected days.

            1. The last 2 days, I went back and basically reviewed the previous topic, because I was worried and could sense that all the missed time had not allowed the concepts to fully set in. And as I sit here now, I feel better that the students have it mastered.

  63. Eric Fisher posted a map on Facebook showing a foot+ for most of the state and higher amounts possible along the north shore.

    1. I saw that and I am confused …….

      I guess that discounts the EURO, which on 2/10 has the coastal storm closest to us, which I think is when it would have the biggest precip impact ….

      But, at that time, the temps above are projected to be too warm to snow on the EURO.

      850 mb temps of freezing or milder extend northwest of Boston ………

  64. I heard today that it was the Monday into Tuesday that would produce the most. And with maybe 4 inches total from miday Saturday till Monday morning.

    1. Based on the EURO, the 18z NAM and ….we’ll have to see the 18z GFS ….

      I just would be very unsure that a foot of snow may potentially fall all the way to the Cape Cod bridges.

      I’d bring that less, mixing area at least 40-50 miles northward.

  67. So is a lot of this forcast being based on whether or not ocean enhancement snow comes into play?

    1. I just looked again. Foot+ all over with EXTRA accumulation in
      the Ocean Enhancement jack pot.

      I saw that on my smart phone and missed some interpretation.

      We lost internet at work.

      I just tethered my smart phone to my computer to gain internet access.

      1. Oh good…I thought I was going crazy. I don’t claim to know how to decipher a weather model but thought I could decipher a simple snowfall map. 🙂

        1. Oh, you read his snow map perfectly.

          I was offering question of what the snow map is forecasting, not how you were reading it. 🙂 🙂

  69. GFS is even further north too. I think the models are going to continue to really struggle with this setup until the players are onshore from the Pacific. I would not be surprised if this shifted back south.

    That said, as it stands now, it looks like most of the initial overrunning event over the weekend would be north over central/northern New England and precip over SNE would be focused more on Monday with the main storm.

    I am surprised Eric F would post a map like that at this stage. Things are very much in the air.

  70. Even the most consistent GFS, in this scenario, I’d propose, has moved a bit to the north.

    I thought on previous runs, several inches of snow were being shown all the way to Cape
    Cod and on immediate South Coast.

    Well, anyway, my take is that, at this very early stage ….

    From the Mass/CT to Mass/RI borders, eastward into the south shore area …

    While it may snow later Saturday and Sunday, once we get to Monday and the potential bigger previp event, I think it is far, far questionable as to what the precip type could be.

  71. I do not agree at all with Eric’s map. He’s showing way too much snow. Through the entire event, I believe most places will come in under a foot. Some maybe only a couple inches. I still think it’s too early to put maps out to begin with.

  73. My guess is that the NAO not being negative, ie ….. flow being pregressive at high latitudes, like near Greenland, is allowing the cold airmass (or the high we’ve all been focused on) to be moving more eastward across eastern Canada, as opposed to be being forced a bit further southward towards extreme southeastern Canada.

  77. I wouldn’t completely rule out this northern trend, however, that is not likely to occur. With a very strong artic H to our north, a southerly and colder scenario is more plausible. I am never one to model hug from run to run to run. The overall synoptic pattern for this upcoming event should prove snowier and introduce any ice/rain to far southern areas of our audience. Just my opinion.

  78. I saw channel 5 and they had “early estimates”

    Saturday: Dusting to 2″
    Sunday: 2-4″
    Monday: 4-8″

  80. I read somewhere in a discussion that there was blocking in Iceland, not greenland.
    The posted was not certain how it would play out for sure, but thought all snow. 😀

    Sorry can’t remember. It may have been Bernie or perhaps DT.

    1. That looks pretty close to me OS. I’m betting a little more. The storms have been outperforming so far on snow. I don’t see that changing yet IMO.

      And don’t worry about north shift wrecking this. Ain’t gonna happen for most.

        1. HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA. No, I missed it. Been checking in for the last two days on my cell which is a huge pain in the ass. Yeah, I know dick hurtz from holden.. He lives next door to Seymour Butts. (I’m such a child LOL)

          1. How many times have you heard that one over
            the years?

            We used to pull that crap in College with
            the professors. HILARIOUS.

      1. 2 to go …. 🙂

        Have you seen their out of division home opponents next year …

        Jacksonville, Tennessee and Washington (sorry Hadi) to name a few.

  84. Hi all. Just checking in.

    I took that medication at 3:07PM and by 4PM not only had it regulated my heart but the dose was so strong that I could hardly feel my lips and tongue and I was sweating and almost almost physically incapable of moving. I actually called the doc but he assured me it was ok and I just needed to lie down, so I did at 4:15PM and finally got up at 7:45PM. Heart is normal. I am still weak but nothing like before. I need a day tomorrow to rest and monitor things but wow what a wonder drug. I think next time I may only need half that dose.

    arod I know about the ablation but at this stage my episodes are not frequent enough for me to want to do that.. Will be left as an option for the future. 🙂

    Thanks everyone!

    I am thinking 8-15 inches for a starter accumulation range from Saturday through Tuesday but cannot rule out higher amounts. And the drawn-out nature of the event will make it seem like less than whatever we get.

  85. I dont know what moved me to go to Accuweather …… They have their spring outlook …

    New England …… Warm and dry (late).

    Sure …….. We all know how well New England so easily comes out of cold, damp spring weather and I’m sure the 9,000 ft of snow on the ground should speed that process up.

  93. Well, pick your poison with the model runs. 0z gfs looks a lot like Eric fishers map – solid foot with the jackpot zone of 16-20 extending from Boston north into south nh. We will see what happens over the next 48 hours!

  94. Yawn…Morning.

    I know it’s early, but I was just tossing and turning so I got up to do some
    map watching. Haven’t looked at a model yet, but came across this discussion
    from the WPC about totally TOSSING the NAM solution:

    SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
    AMPLIFYING EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
    CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

    THE 00Z NAM AMPLIFIES THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA SATURDAY AS IT IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE, WHICH IS IMPLAUSIBLE. THIS LEADS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH HEIGHTS 60+ METERS DEEPER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY — ITS USUAL BIAS — WHICH LEADS TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW SOLUTION FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THAT LIES COMPLETELY OUTSIDE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN VAGUELY RESEMBLES THE NAM, NO OTHER GUIDANCE DOES. A UKMET/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
    CONFIDENCE.

    1. Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro 5h5 hours ago
      @NWSBoston Classic! “THE 00Z NAM … IS IMPLAUSIBLE”

      NWS Taunton:

      OTHER THAN THE 00Z NAM…MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. 00Z NAM IS A DEEP OUTLIER WITH ITS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT 84 HRS/12Z MON. NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A NON NAM SOLUTION.

  95. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    [5am] New record low temp at BDL Airport! At 352 am the temp dipped to -7F. This breaks the old record of -5F set back in 1988 and 1910. #CT

  96. 06Z GFS snow represents a Northward SHIFT in the Snow Totals.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

    Zoomed in

    http://i.imgur.com/ZD68M5b.png

    Since the GFS has shifted some, it gives me pause that the other models are
    MOVING towards the NAM solution. Wouldn’t it be something IF the NAM
    were correct ALL along? Hmmm

    Anxiously awaiting 12Z guidance.

    PS I can’t tell a clue from the EURO maps I can see.

  97. Hi Everyone,

    So sick again…haven’t the models been trending north but then as the storm starts the Lows have actually been further south?

    1. Well it CERTAINLY happened with the last storm.

      It will be interesting to SEE if that happens again with this one.
      IF it does, we “could” really be in for it.

      How’d you like to have to prepare a public forecast? GEEZ what do you do?
      WOW!

  98. CMC snow map is in SHARP contrast to the GFS. Pretty pathetic actually.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015020600/gem_asnow_neus_19.png

    Can’t tell a thing about the EURO. On the wundermap, Euro looks like a weak cousin
    of the GFS. Anyone have Euro total QPF and/or Snow map?

    Do I SMELL A BUST? I dunno.

    Waiting on the 12Z runs.

    The SNOW GODS “may” end up giving us a break. We shall see.

    I would NOT want to be providing a Public forecast right about now.
    HUGE BUST POTENTIAL!!! HUGE!!!

  99. On the COLD subject, I actually wasn’t all that surprised when I saw that it
    STAYED above Zero here. It is +2.3 at the moment. When I saw what the temps
    were at 11PM and saw that Burlington, VT was only at -2, I honestly didn’t think
    Boston would crack 0. It still has an hour or so, so I suppose it could slip under,
    but I don’t think so. It is Sub Zero in the burbs.

    1. Hmm 5 AM at Worcester, only 0
      5 at Logan, 2 at Norwood, =2 at Bedford. Surprisingly LESS COLD
      than forecast across the area. Hey, not that it is warm by any stretch.

      I bet Boston cracks 20 this PM.

  100. Public forecast really tough. But now that we are in the pattern I think it’s going to snow more than we expect. Here’s hoping I’m wrong!

  101. WTF… NOW WHAT… Fresh from the Taunton NWS office. He he he

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 6m6 minutes ago
    [530am] Dry but frigid today. Periods of #snow this weekend w/potential accumulations from 2-5″. More snow Mon. #MA

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9J5jfFIEAAa2Tx.png

    Huh, What?

    Btw here is what Eric Fisher said at the 11PM broadcast:

    Day Forecast Snow
    Saturday 1-3 inches
    Sunday 3-6 inches
    Monday 4-8 inches
    Tuesday 1-3 Inches

    Event Total 9-20 inches

    That is QUITE a range. He almost can’t miss UNLESS the NAM some how verifies. 😀

  102. Sorry about the posting rampage here, but I am trying to provide useful information.

    I’m not seeing that Strong Atlantic moisture flow showing up as well on the latest
    models. Going to concentrate on that for a bit and be back.

  103. Good morning on the 37th anniversary of the granddaddy of all local storms, the Blizzard of 1978.

    So glad to hear about your good news, TK! Rest today, please!

    1. Indeed and THAT is STILL my GOLD standard by which to measure
      Snow Storms. NOTHING has measured up since then. Oh sure, a couple
      of storms surpassed the snow totals, but they were NOTHING compared
      to that storm. NOTHING!

  104. From GFS. I don’t see ANY Easterly component to the WINDs UNTIL
    9Z Monday.

    6z

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150206+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    9Z

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150206+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    That is synoptic precip then with “perhaps” some ocean enhancement.

    Earlier I thought that we would have a NE wind ALL DAY SUnday, really cranking
    out the ocean SNOW. NOT looking that way now.

    To me, this means REDUCED snow totals. We shall see.

    1. Yes indeed, but I didn’t want to post anything on that just yet. PLUS, it
      NEVER gets as COLD as those models advertise. We shall see how cold it
      gets when it gets here. 😀

      On thing for certain, there will be DEEP SNOW COVER contributing to
      the COLD.

    1. John,

      Perhaps, but it would NOT surprise me to see this become a TOTAL bust.
      We shall see. 😀

      Frankly I am disappointed. Not that we need another snowstorm, but
      I very much wanted to see a VERY RARE heavy OCEAN EFFECT SNOW EVENT for Boston. Does not look like that is in the cards. Just light to occasionally moderate synoptic snows with perhaps a bit of Ocean Enhancement on Monday. NO BIG DEAL at all, even IF it were to add up to a foot. A foot over 4 days is NOTHING!

        1. See above, re: Eric’s Forecast CRAP I’ll repeat

          Saturday 1-3 inches
          Sunday 3-6 inches
          Monday 4-8 inches
          Tuesday 1-3 inches

          That adds up to FOUR (4) DAYS my friend. Sorry.

          1. Your right. But like I said I’m hearing same exact forcast as yesterday atleast on ch 5. We get a little more each day starting tomorrow afternoon.

  108. re: COld
    Some more.

    Here is instantweather maps 2m Temps for 1/14 7AM

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020606&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=198

    Here is a ZOOMED 2m Temp Map for same time

    http://i.imgur.com/imrB5sY.png

    That places Boston between the -20C Isotherm and the -30C Isotherm or say
    -25C

    That my friends is: -13 F

    YUP 13 DEGREES BELOW ZERO!!!!

    The record in Boston is -18.

    Although NOT likely, It is possible it could be tied or broken.

      1. While living in MILLIS in the 60s, I once saw it 17 Below. My car even started. 😀

        Staying in VT in the 70s it was 25 Below. Took spraying ETHER
        into the carburetor to get my almost new car started. Brrrr

        Once it get as cold as today, several more degrees colder just doesn’t matter. COLD IS COLD IS COLD.

        It will be fine. 😀

  110. I think the issue may be that too many people are getting the snow totals from a few to several days before an event from the Euro and GFS stuck in their minds especially from mainstream and social media sites that keep providing this information, and expecting something bigger than is actually going to happen. The Euro, especially, has proven over and over that it just cannot forecast snow totals more than a couple days in advance.

    The 8-15 idea I tossed out yesterday was of course a big range over a big area and is only meant as a guide and is to be fine-tuned when the event time closes in. In reality, the snow totals, unless astronomically high, are not going to matter that much in this event. You’d hardly notice it. You’ll only notice that it’s snowing often over a few days and that occasional trips to clear the walk or driveway would be necessary. But overall this thing would have the impact of a minor to moderate snowfall, depending on your location. Just snow, fluffy unless you’re closer to the South Coast, no wind except maybe a little increase near the coast Monday with the strongest low pressure wave, no tide issues. Should turn out to be the longest, easiest snow event of the season. 😉

  111. 3 to 6 inches between saturday and sunday western, central and northeast mass, northern ct and northwest Ri
    1-3 southeast mass, RI and southern Ct
    most of the snow falls sunday night through monday night

  112. I think the models are getting one thing correct and one thing wrong …..

    Correct : The “northern trend” idea : is not so much reflective of a surface low suddenly moving into central or northern New England, its reflective of somewhat milder air aloft that is going to get a bit further north than it appeared a couple days earlier.

    Wrong : As they did with the last system, they don’t have the surface cold enough.

    Combined :

    However much falls from Sat onward …. my guess is all snow from Gloucester to Bedford to Rte 2 to just north of Albany

    South of that west to east line …… Snow early on ….. but later Sunday and into Monday, the chance exists that other precip types get involved before ending as snow.

    TGIF !!!!

  113. I remain generally unimpressed by this. If I had to put some very early numbers on it, for the entire event, I’d say something like:

    4-8″ from the Pike south, with probably only 1-4″ at the South Coast
    8-12″ from the Pike north, possibly a small area of over a foot on the North Shore
    8-12″+ for much of central New England as well, highest totals will probably be somewhere in NH or VT

    Most places under a foot. Generally a low-moderate impact event due to the pacing.

  114. TK I hope you are feeling better this morning

    OS I had forgotten about spraying ether in the carburator. We did that often when skiing. I also remember temps very low and once the slopes were closed because of excessive cold.

  115. 7am temps

    AZALL-061300-
    EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
    BOSTON PTCLDY 5 -8 55 W8 30.17R WCI -8
    6HR MIN TEMP: 5; 6HR MAX TEMP: 7;

    BEVERLY PTCLDY 0 -11 59 W3 30.14R
    LAWRENCE CLEAR 1 -9 62 W5 30.16R WCI -9
    BEDFORD CLEAR -4 -11 72 W5 30.15R WCI -15
    BLUE HILL N/A -1 -11 62 W13 30.09R WCI -19
    NORWOOD CLEAR -10 -14 82 CALM 30.18R
    MARSHFIELD CLEAR 5 -8 56 W5 30.19R WCI -4
    PLYMOUTH FAIR -1 -10 65 W7 30.17R WCI -14
    TAUNTON FAIR -2 -10 69 CALM 30.18R
    NEW BEDFORD CLEAR 2 -10 57 W5 30.18R WCI -8

  116. Most storms have crept up on us within 36-48 hours so I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the potential. I am not sure everything comes together and to be honest I wish it wouldn’t bc of how bad our streets are in my area. But we should be on alert for changes in the next 24 hours.

    1. Totally and completely agree. Almost Nothing was as expected.

      We thought we were going to get RAINED on with the last storm
      and it changed. The COLD really held on.

      We may not know until 0Z runs tonight or even 12Z runs tomorrow.

      IF that high get positioned right, we’re in trouble. So far it doesn’t look that
      way, not that it won’t be cold enough. 😀

  117. I wonder how the upcoming long-duration series of small storms fits in with the Weather Channel’s naming convention? Perhaps “Larry, Moe and Curly” or “Sex and Drugs and Rock & Roll”.

  118. This upcoming snow threat is not a typical set up therefore I think it is causing a lot of us, including the models to scratch their heads as to what will actually transpire. I was looking at the last model projections for the GFS and NAM and comparing it to current radar returns and what I’ve found is the NAM is way off and places the precip too far to the north and the GFS is also slightly off placing precip too far to the north. Whether this means anything for us, I’m not sure. I for one would not underestimate the cold high to the north and I would not assume the models will handle this very well. For me it will be fun just watching the radar returns and looking for any potential surprises along the way.

    1. There used to be a lot of events like this in the 1970s and 1980s. I’m familiar with them. I just don’t think people realized what was going on at the time because all they did was pay attention to the forecast on radio or TV that said it was going to snow.

      Today it’s all about the models, which in a way is a very bad thing. We get so hung up in what the models are predicting we forget to actually view the real weather.

      1. Very true, we are heavily tech reliant society. What would we do if an elector magnetic pulse ever took out the grid?!

        Do you see any divergence with radar returns vs the model outputs tk? It seems the precip shields are larger than modeled and further south by a fairly large margin? Am I off with this?

    2. Again, I agree. I know the resolution of the GFS does NOT handle
      Ocean effect all that well.

      If you look at Bernie’s video from yesterday, you would think we were
      headed for AMEGEDDON.

      Let me list the factors:

      1. Cold Arctic High to the North
      2. Pineapple express Pacific moisture, gulf moisture and WARMTH
      overriding the Arctic cold.
      3. Short waves traversing the Arctic front providing LIFT
      4. Constant flow of Moist Atlantic Air riding into New England and up and
      over the Arctic air.

      Put it all together and it spells SNOW

      The only problem is, I don’t see the Arctic HIGH setting up to do that.

      We shall see.

  119. WORST COMMUTE of the WINTER this morning.
    45 minutes to travel 3 1/2 miles.

    I was AOK until 1/2-3/4 mile from the office then ran into a Cluster F***

    TOO Many MEAK MARYS that don’t know how to drive or what to do.
    They see a patch of snow or a snowbank and panic. Result: NOTHING MOVES!!!

    I CAN’T STAND IT!!!

    End of rant. Back to weather. 😀

  121. Unless I’m missing somthing here were still getting snow till Tuesday. This was never to be a four day full out blizzard it’s been advertised as there will be snow daily with each day bringing more than the day before and the one time frame to watch was Monday into Tuesday for possibly more or the most snow out of all of them.

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