Frigid Friday

389 Comments

8:54AM

SUMMARY…
Below zero temperatures greet many early morning risers and those temperatures will struggle to rise but will finally make it to the 10s in most areas during the day. Though not too windy, a bit of a breeze will add a bit to the air at times. Expect a dry day as we are in between yesterday’s snow-producing Arctic front and the upcoming prolonged snow event, you know, that well-advertised snow event that according to some computer models was going to dump 1 to 2 feet of snow on much of southern New England? Shame shame shame if you believed that. 😉 What is really about to happen is we’ll see Arctic high pressure banked up across northern New England and southeastern Canada supplying plenty of cold air, and a frontal boundary sitting just south of New England with 2 or 3 areas of low pressure moving along it. These will provide episodes of snow starting by Saturday afternoon and ending by Tuesday afternoon. During this time, there will likely be several inches of snow accumulating across most locations. I’ve been tossing numbers around in my head and am starting to feel comfortable with the idea of 3-6 inches along the South Coast with a few spotty higher amounts, and 6-10 inches everywhere else but with spotty amounts of greater than 10 inches possible, especially due to ocean-enhancement in coastal areas from Boston to the NH Seacoast. The wildcard will be the last low pressure wave which has slight potential to develop a little stronger than the others and therefore enhance snowfall. This would be later Monday into early Tuesday. By the middle of next week, we will have said bye to the snow train and will see a dry and cold day Wednesday and then another threat of snow from a clipper system on Thursday as the harsh February pattern continues.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 10s. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 10s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Clouding up. Periods of snow in the afternoon with less than 2 inches. Highs in the 20s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY & MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow with moderate accumulation most likely (see above). Temperatures steady mainly in the 10s southern NH and northern MA, 20s to 30 southern MA and RI.
TUESDAY: Snow ends. Clearing and windy. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.

389 thoughts on “Frigid Friday”

  2. Thanks TK. Hope you’re feeling better today.

    Some re-posts that I just finished posting

    Old Salty says:
    February 6, 2015 at 9:00 AM
    Again, I agree. I know the resolution of the GFS does NOT handle
    Ocean effect all that well.

    If you look at Bernie’s video from yesterday, you would think we were
    headed for AMEGEDDON.

    Let me list the factors:

    1. Cold Arctic High to the North
    2. Pineapple express Pacific moisture, gulf moisture and WARMTH
    overriding the Arctic cold.
    3. Short waves traversing the Arctic front providing LIFT
    4. Constant flow of Moist Atlantic Air riding into New England and up and
    over the Arctic air.

    Put it all together and it spells SNOW

    The only problem is, I don’t see the Arctic HIGH setting up to do that.

    We shall see.
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    February 6, 2015 at 8:55 AM
    WORST COMMUTE of the WINTER this morning.
    45 minutes to travel 3 1/2 miles.

    I was AOK until 1/2-3/4 mile from the office then ran into a Cluster F***

    TOO Many MEAK MARYS that don’t know how to drive or what to do.
    They see a patch of snow or a snowbank and panic. Result: NOTHING MOVES!!!

    I CAN’T STAND IT!!!

    End of rant. Back to weather. 😀
    Reply

      1. I’ve Been around a long time. 😀
        Some of it I make up and some of it I’ve heard before along the way.

  3. Do you see any divergence with radar returns vs the model outputs tk? It seems the precip shields are larger than modeled and further south by a fairly large margin? Am I off with this?

    2. Don’t forget that model output is trying to give you QP. Radar is going to cover a wide spectrum including precipitation not reaching ground.

  4. Oh before I forget.

    TK, what’s with the FUNKY PINK background color?

    IS this your Valentine’s Day theme? Why not just make it RED? 😀

    2. It’s transitioning that way from the arctic color I had for January. I try to keep these colors muted so I don’t light up people’s cubicles too much. 😉

  7. NWS Taunton’s take on the storm:

    VERY SURPRISING THE LACK OF SPREAD HERE GIVEN FORECAST TIME IS STILL 72+ HRS AWAY. REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL…MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES /EPS/ HAS A LARGE SWATH OF 4-8″ SUN NGT INTO EARLY TUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT-RI NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. THE UKMET IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AXIS ALONG MA PIKE SOUTHWARD INTO CT-RI. EPS IS FARTHEST NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH. STILL TOO EARLY TO FOCUS SPECIFICS BUT NEVERTHELESS LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6-12″ FROM SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
    TUE.

    1. Thanks Mark. That was from earlier and based on 0ZS runs, I believe.
      We’ll see IF they change their tune later today. 😀

    2. Interesting that the UKMET, the model that has been performing better lately, has the axis heaviest snow farthest south.

  9. I read they flew 4 or 5 planes out in the eastern Pacific to get better sampling and that the data should be available for the 12z runs. So if we are going to see any trends, likely will see them starting this afternoon. Still think the axis of heavier precip may tick back south and I would also not be surprised if the Monday wave of low pressure ends up a bit stronger than currently modeled.

  10. The 12z NAM shows, (in my opinion), even on a mild solution, shows that a surface low is not going to move thru New England.

    It does that magical southeastward jump or reforms the low as it moves from western NY to suddenly south of Long Island.

    Its almost like the NAM is saying …… I’M WRONG, I KNOW I’M WRONG ….. LET ME FIX THIS !! it does that around hrs 78-84.

    Jury still out, I think, on who gets all snow versus who gets snow, then some sort of ice/sleet.

    1. I think we ALL get SNOW, with the “possible” exception being along
      the immediate South Coasts of CR, RI and MA.

      1. It should be interesting to see where that final west to east demarcation line ends up.

        Most recent big event was fascinating, because it was literally over Marshfield.

  11. Don’t underestimate the impact of even a few inches of snow a day for a 4-day period, given the snow-pack in place. Also, as I experienced yesterday driving to Hanover, NH, just a couple of inches of snow wreaks havoc. In fact, in some ways it’s worse than lots of snow because drivers don’t slow down and don’t expect icy/snowy patches. The roads were okay, but truly dangerous in spots. If Saturday to Tuesday produces these kinds of snow events, we’re in for a lot of delays, accidents, and considerable nuisance.

    1. The amounts on the 1978 map are very poorly done. They are wrong to start with, and leave out heavier bands in 2 places. So immediately the comparison is invalid.

      And from a reality standpoint, 1978 had a much greater impact.

      1. I agree totally. SW of Boston there were up to 4 foot totals.
        I had 3 feet in my street just 5 or 6 miles from Logan’s 27.1 inches!
        The WIND was way worse and the tides, OMG they was devastating. This year’s blizzard was a potent, terrible storm.
        Comparable to 78, NOPE. NOT IN MY OPINION!

    2. No contest !!!!

      Ignoring the comparison of weather statistics ….

      the public being informed and ready for a big event is so different.

      Nowadays, if it snows 2″, the TV stations pre-empt coverage for hours and send reporters to every part of the State.

      Back then, different story. A lot less lead team ….. today : improved weather models (I think 🙂 🙂 ) with better lead time on big storms, etc.

        1. Bruce is one of my favorite TV mets.

          I don’t know why, but many times, I’d laugh at least once during his weathercasts.

          My favorite weather thing he did in his weather presentations was have the temperature zones across the country. Cold, cool, mild, warm ……

            1. LOL ….. That was a great team …. Jack Williams, Liz Walker, Bruce and Bob Lobel …. they had good give and take during transitions. I used to always watch ch 4 back then.

  15. Thanks TK and I hope your feeling better.
    Will your blog next Friday be titled Frigid Friday II? It looks like some big time cold late next week into next weekend.

  16. From a CT prespective with the blizzard of 78. The Snow Depth across CT was more than the blizzard of 78. The blizzard of 2013 I feel is my generations blizzard of 78. The blizzard of 78 is still to me the benchmark storm for SNE.

  19. I don’t believe the GFS, (because I’m more worried about ICE for Boston southeastward sometime Sunday night, early Monday), but at hr 87, click on categorical RAIN and see where the GFS thinks it will be raining at that point.

    Lunch time. 🙂

  20. Oh I know but after the blizzard ended since I was not around in 78 I was surprised the blizzard of 2013 did have more snow depth in CT than blizzard of 78 from stories I heard.
    To me the blizzard of 78 will be the benchmark winter storm for New England by the amount of impacts it had.
    As for severe weather the benchmark severe weather outbreak to me is the Northeast Tornado Outbreak of July 10, 1989.

  22. Dave Epstein – 2 hours ago
    ‏Very Cold School Vacation. MT @NWSBoston [Mid-Feb] Has temps that could potentially rival Jan. 2004 arctic outbreak

  23. I heard on the radio this morning that we are in for an 85-hour storm. Is the math on this correct? It was an announcer who said it and not a met.

  24. TK – Besides the clipper system on Thursday, is this the last in the series of significant snows for awhile?

    1. Just a quick note that it’s also possible (at least when using Firefox) to zoom in while on the page by using ctrl +

      2. FWIW, the CTRL +
        also works AOK with Chrome as the browser.

        Good to know, saves me the trouble of producing those
        ZOOMED looks. 😀

  26. I can see this upcoming snow event driving us all completely and utterly crazy for a few reasons:
    1) The daily snowfall will not be enough to snow blow (unless u wait till it all falls), thus will require multiple episodes of SHOVELING
    2) There won’t be heavily falling snow at any point so it won’t feel like a real storm
    3) Everyone will be reporting snowfall amounts in hundredths of an inch
    4) We will all be trying to conjure up some way to make it seem as though this storm will be worse than it is like we are trying to invent some form of time travel

    1. I’m gonna try my hardest to just enjoy the slowly falling snow for 4 days and not get caught up in the final outcome

  27. Love all the snow out in the Berkshire’s as we are going on vacation there. I was going to ski but my injury will keep me out but fun nonetheless. Planned trip early last year when back was doing well. Oh well will enjoy the hot tub and pool 🙂

  28. I like the new violet color on the blog. It looks just like my hands and feet when I am out of doors. 🙂 😉

  29. I don’t care what anyone says, the GFS has been very consistent with this event, more so than any other model and has been surprisingly the model of choice this winter(Go Figure). Anyways, the 12z ups the QPF from the 06z.

    12z – http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_099_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150206+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    06z – http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=105&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_105_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150206+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    1. There is SOMETHING to be said for that.

      Clearly VERY consistent. Can’t totally ignore it, that’s for sure.

      1. Actually if you take that map exactly the way he has it, I’m in the zone, and you are just out of it. 😉

  31. Climatologically, ice is rare Boston points southeastward.

    But, not impossible.

    Ocean is now 40F, so at the surface, that’s not necessarily impossible to overcome with shallow cold air flowing in from a northeast wind which looks likely, as the surface low will clearly be south of New England.

    But, I just don’t trust the whole column in southernmost New England late in this event.

    We shall see …..

  32. I for one don’t think this event will underachieve, I think if anything it will overachieve in terms of total snowfall and periods of moderate perhaps heavy snowfall(emphasis on Monday for heavy). Just look at what the front last night did out in Worcester county. We poo pooed the snow when the trend was against us in lat Nov-early Jan and said don’t fight the trend. Well the current trend is for the atmosphere to crank out snow and until we are proven wrong I think it’s prudent to see things through that lense.

  33. TK and ALL,

    HOW does one measure snowfall for an event like this?

    If one waits to the last flake falls and takes a measurement, it will NOT be
    accurate as over 4 days, that snow will settle and lose depth.

    My guess would be to take a measurement every 6 hours or so and keep a tab
    on the totals. Add them all up when the storm is over.

    Thoughts?

  34. I just hope the stronger low Sunday night into Monday goes South of Long Island not near Long Island as the last storm did. If it does that COULD be another snow to mix back to snow for my area cutting down on snowfall amounts. I liked the band of snow that came through Monday afternoon.

  35. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 3m3 minutes ago
    new video coming. second wave the key to big snows.

    hmm wonder what he means by this?

  37. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago
    Monday could be snow-day in New England. Widespread 1-foot snowfall expected … maybe 18” near Boston

  38. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 10m10 minutes ago
    NE snowstorm not particularly strong — but aided by huge #PineappleExpress Pacific moisture “atmospheric river”

  40. Matt Noyes snowmap looks a lot more reasonable than some of these 12+”amounts. Has 6″ around Boston, less south coast, more north and west of boston with jackpot into central NE. Looks like he’s using at least a percentage of the NAM

      1. Let me make sure they didn’t end up in spam. That’s happened to a few people at times since the WordPress update.

  41. 12z Canadian has moved south. 12zUKMET (which had been the southern outlier) has ticked north and is now more in line with the GFS.

    Not surprised to see the north trend come to an end on the models nor I am surprised to see Monday trending a little more robust.

    I don’t really agree with some of the opinions that this isn’t going to be a high impact situation on Monday. While we may not have 2″/hour snow rates, it will be coming down steady, road conditions will be poor, and there isn’t a whole lot of room to put any more snow.

  42. Sorry to be so MIA. Work has been quite Busy.

    TK-Sorry to read about your health problems and I am very glad to read about your issues not seemingly to be under-control.

    Last night I literally was playing around with figures of 6-19″ for SNE Saturday-Tuesday. Nice precision huh?

    All these numbers and maps I have seen thrown out just confuse the public and I am disappointed to see so many 1 foot plus maps out yesterday. I have hear a lot of we are getting foot of snow on Sunday and Monday from people I know. It just is not going to happen like that.

    I generally think we are looking at moderate snow fall amounts and fairly minimal impact due to the long duration of the event, but that long duration will have periods where nothing is really going on which will further allow for clean up and impact negation.

  45. I am in agreement with Mark on this one. I think people are getting a bit tired of the snow so there is a bias towards the idea of us getting less or there being minimal impacts from this. But, mother nature doesn’t know how much snow has fallen beforehand nor does she care. The indications are such that we should be on guard for a lot of snow and periods where the snow will be moderate to potentially heavy.

    1. Actually just opposite. The inclination is to go for more snow as a forecaster. Mine certainly is due to the idea of persistence of pattern, but I still believe that a moderate snowfall accumulation forecast is the correct course of action at this point. And, it the fact is outside of looking for places to put the snow, the travel and economic impact will be much less than 8-16″ of snow falling in a typical 12-18 hour period.

      1. I should have clarified. I agree that the inclination for forecasters is to go for more snow. I was more or less responding to some of our fellow bloggers who have been targeting the lesser amounts. I find it all fascinating and whatever happens will be fun to watch unfold

  46. This is the kind of setup that gives us four days of 40 degree cold rain in April while it’s 80 in Philly.

  47. I have tried to post something 3 or 4 times but it has not been going through. Yet, I just got a Word Press error that I had already made the same comment? Not sure if anyone else is also having these issues?

  48. Model Trends are going lighter, that’s for sure, we’ve got enough snow, this is great news!! 🙂

    1. which trends are those Charlie? I posted the GFS trend earlier which in fact upped its QPF output

  49. I wonder what the NWS will do as far as advisories/watches and warnings? IIRC, winter storm warning criteria is 6″+ of snow in a 12 hr period or 8″+ in a 24 hr period. Neither of those criteria will be met but total snowfall for the entire event might get to those amounts. Do they treat this as 3 different “events” and issue advisories as they come? This could get very confusing.

  50. Far more interesting to me right now than some vorticity advection / very weak insentrophic lift snows and the possibility of a wave of low pressure along a sagging front, is the cold shot coming ~Feb 12-15 and then again about a week later. With snow pack and some diminishing winds there could be some extremely cold morning lows and some jaw dropping temps (or jaw freezing ones) in the sheltered valleys.

    Right now my thought is we may start to moderate this pattern to a more zonal flow with shorter intermittent periods of cold sometime after February 25th.

    1. JMA, what are your thoughts on east coast storm potential around next Sunday the 15th? The signal is still there on the GFS and on the 12z run, a very potent storm forms just offshore…

      1. ~15th was the time period I marked about a week ago as a potential high impact event. Ingredients are still there but the best dynamics could be shunted south and east if it gets as cold as I think it could.

  51. 12z Euro output (this from a post on AmericanWx):

    1″+ pike MA into SNH/VT
    1.2-1.4″ south shore to 495 to NH border
    1.4-1.5″ north shore including northern Boston metro

    the above is all snow

    warmest extent: 850 0C tickles south coast at 90hrs

    heaviest Monday afternoon-evening

      1. yes, that is QPF – Boston is in the bullseye on that run with 15″ of snow – not too dissimilar from the GFS.

  52. Mark & Mel … I got those messages to post. Not sure why they ended up in the spam folder. Intermittent issue with WordPress.

  53. I just came in from lunch. GEEZ Traffic a F’d Up!!!!

    Shawmut Avenue on the other side of my office has been reduced from 2 lines to 1!!!

    1/2 mile back up at the light at NOON time! INSANE!

    Every major intersection is still a mess!!

    More snow this City does NOT NEED!

    On that thought, coming back to the office ran into a decent SNOW SHOWER
    that last about 5 minutes or so. VIS got down to 1/5 to 2 miles. It was NOT a flurry.

    What caused that?

  56. Tk – love the new color – reminds me of ice sky in the morning. Is it an indication that you are in the pink? I sure hope so.

    I think the trick to measuring is to be able to actually clear a spot big enough. Don’t know about anyone else, but that ain’t happenin’ here 🙂

    And did I hear that the ONLY underinflated football was the one the colts have? If so, colts need huge fine and goodell needs to go NOW for letting it go on as it did.

    1. Not female, so I don’t care for the color. Way too Feminine for my taste.

      Re: Colts And Goodel
      Agree totally. Get rid of them. This whole Deflate gate was concocted
      by the Ravens and Colts!!

      1. I don’t do gender colors. Colors are colors to me. I get the whole traditional pink girl and blue boy thing, and that’s cool and all, but if pink is part of a February color scheme then so be it. 🙂

        2. We do not do gender colors either or gender toys. I was going with sunset in the icy sky and you went with valentine’s day. Not sure which is more romantic but suspect valentine’s day. Didn’t even see that coming 🙁

        1. Thank you Keith. I think Goodell has to go as well for letting it get completely out of hand. It should have been solved within one day. But he used it to his and the league’s advantage. Disgusting…every last one of them

  57. If Boston and vicinity get 15 inches out of this elongated system that will present a major problem. I realize that is a big “if.” I think that examining storms by way of quantity over a 24 hour period is not helpful, given the context of still massive amounts of snow in and around the city and suburbs. As mentioned before, even small amounts of snow can create very hazardous driving and walking conditions, which are only exacerbated by what is already on the ground.

  58. Reading thoughts on mid February cold ….. Discouraging ……..

    Got my heating bill last night for the past 4 week period. Prices have sharply risen this year, even for maintaining a similar thermostat hold temp from past winter’s.

    I might have to consider a lower hold temp, considering it looks like the heat will be needed a lot well into February.

            1. Gas and Electric have not seen the same rate drops due to transportation and transmission costs.

  62. Ok so here’s some commentary on the WEATHER, and maybe some NON-WEATHER.

    I was watching an anniversary special on the Blizzard of 78 today and I have to laugh when we are being told we’ve never had it this bad. What a CROCK. Is it bad (bad meaning difficult)? Yes, probably worse than usual because so many people drive and so few carpool. We already know about our aged transit system. That’s another issue that the cold/snow/ice only brings into the forefront. Harsh winter? Not really. Harsh pattern? Yes. We had just about NO WINTER other than some November & January cold and dry weather (before the storm on the 24th of January) with the mild & wet interlude otherwise known as December. So, since January 24 we have 2 major snowstorms and some other snow events and all of a sudden it’s the end of the world! It hasn’t even been 2 weeks yet. We’ve been in this pattern for 13 days and you’d think it was a LIFETIME. I just took my 83 year old mom on errands around the city and she thinks it’s funny how so many people overreact to these snowbanks which have been higher in the past, trust me on this. I may be one of the only people actually paying attention to that instead of listening to the media tell me they are the biggest snowbanks in history. They’re not. 🙂

    So now we have a 4-day event coming up. I already gave you my thoughts on this. It’ll snow, and we’ll cope, and a bunch of people will waste energy on complaining about the weather in the place we live, probably the same people that were moaning about the HHH days back in the Summer. But hey, we’re all entitled to our opinions right? Right. So you’re getting mine right now.

    I say save your energy, because if you really want to use it to complain about the weather, you may be doing that in about a week……………. 😉

    1. You mean the POLAR EXPRESS?

      Seriously, do you think there is ANY chance Boston Challenges it’s
      ALL TIME RECORD LOW?

      OR it will be REALLY cold, but not quite that cold?

      Thanks

      PS Nice RANT! Love it. people love to complain and I’m probably one
      of the biggest offenders! 😆

            1. Do not discount it – we are on the fringes of it on the 12z GFS. Still plenty of time….39 more model runs to go 🙂

    2. The situation is not helped by the media frenzy. Terry Eliasen’s blog yesterday included:
      I wish I had some good news to deliver. I wish I could tell you that the snow was about to stop for a while. Heck, I wish I could tell you that our temperatures were going to be humane at some point in the near future. But sadly, I got nothin’.
      Nothing but more of the same ol’ story.
      If you are nearing your breaking point, I would advise that you stop reading here. The rest of this blog is not for the faint of heart, reader discretion advised.

      I spent a long time outside today and it was fine. There was hardly any wind and the sun was wonderful. I was schlepping firewood around, so I was toasty.

      1. I was out “playing around” in a long sleeved tee shirt. It is what a person convinces himself that it is.

    3. Thoughts from me. YOu say you are surprised, TK, that I have an opinion? Silly you 😉

      Of course these are not the highest snowbanks we have seen. That would be sillier. I think they are dangerous – extremely so – but that has nothing to do with weather and everything to do with piles you cannot see around caused by plows and owners of establishments who do not take the time to clear them.

      We went to breakfast this morning. I’d say just about every person there commented on how they were out and about before the next big storm. I didn’t say a word but Mac watched me cautiously knowing the potential was there.

      Finally, we have certainly had these big storms before and the back to back storms. Just not quite as regularly. That coupled with other major storms and records and the encroaching ocean (particularly in the northeast U.S.) is something that I believe is concerning.

      Just my opinion 🙂

    2. Is there less snow due to the axis of precip being too far north or is it warmer temps thus sleet/ice/rain getting involved? From the qpf output that was posted earlier from the euro it would suggest the latter

  65. Its a moderate snowfall amounts for CT. If any area in CT comes in close to a foot its close to the MA boarder. WIth that said at some point over the weekend I would some sort of winter weather alert at least for interior CT>

  66. NAM still brings the last system too far North and has Sleet/Frzingrain/Rain for a fair amount of the end ot the system, which it shows to be QUITE JUICY. Each run is Juicier.
    I fear higher totals.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    A couple of thoughts:

    1. I still think that the NAM will continue to adjust South
    2. Current run wastes considerable QPF on Sleet/Rain
    3. Beginning to look like final short wave will end up a SIGNIFICANT
    precipitation producer.

    The snow map is above. Here is total QPF through 84 hours (still ongoing):

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020618&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=084

    That’s approximately 1.4 to 1.6 inch with a few tenths to go yet.

    I said it above, and I’ll say it again:
    GETTING JUICIER!

    1. Oh COOL. I just learned that IF you ZOOM instant weathermaps BEFORE
      copying the URL, the ZOOMED version gets pasted as you can see from
      the above 2 links. AWESOME!!!

      Kudos to Keith-Hingham for pointing that out!!!!

  67. CTRL + also works with the Tropical Tidbits maps we use as well.

    NEVER did I think to try something like that. Very NICE FEATURE!

  68. Yes, I’m more concerned about the potential cold than I am a snowstorm around then. Potential record cold probably coming in 2 shots.

    1. So you answered my question from above.

      You did just say: Potential record cold?

      Record low for Boston was in 1934 at18 Below Zero!!!
      AND it occurred in February, NOT January. Cold a straight shot out
      of Eastern Canada and Not the cross continental route from Alaska and across Canada!

      Please say it ain’t so TK.

      1. I don’t think Boston’s all time record is going to fall but I think it could set some records around the region, certainly for the date if not the month in some cases. But that remains to be seen. It’s likely to be a very short-lived core of extreme cold, so the timing will have to be just right.

  70. Ok, wife and older daughter are traveling this weekend.

    Aiming to return back from 128 to Marshfield area Sunday mid morning ……

    Trying to look at NAM radar simulation …

    Seems snow possible as early as noon tomorrow and struggled to find any time afterward where it looked like it lulled.

    Understand 2nd batch is due in Sunday ….

    Anyone know if the focus on the 2nd batch is Sunday morning, afternoon or evening.

    My wife is looking for something better from me than it could be snowing from Saturday afternoon thru to Monday. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Tom, from all of my model watching, Looks like worst of it starts sometime Sunday Afternoon, perhaps toward evening???

      Look at the 18Z GFS and judge. That ought to be a somewhat decent
      indicator. Since the NAM is so far North, I wouldn’t go by any NAM
      precipitation placements.

        1. One more thing. As you hinted above, this whole situation
          appears to be getting more and more juiced up.

          There “may” not be a lull at all, but rather a transition from decent snows to more formidable snows.

          NWS even said there “may” be some HEAVY SNOW
          at times.

      1. More interesting ……

        If you click on the amounts SW (so you can see what is forecasted by NYC), you can tell the Upton NWS office has a completely different take on things.

        There discussion is updated.

        While its two different regions to forecast, look what Taunton has for SW CT, as far as their map will go and then look what Upton has for SW CT. …… 6-8 or 8-10 (Taunton) vs 0 (Upton)

  73. While already cold, the isobars are buckling in New England behind a departing shortwave, say at hr 57.

    I wonder if thats a sign that sometime Sunday, the temps maybe in the 20s, will fall into the teens in eastern Mass, as the surface wind might go north behind one of the shortwaves …..

      1. That’s getting closer to what I’ve been thinking all along.

        Think about what happens in Buffalo when there’s a long fetch off the lake. Of course I’m not talking top of the head snow, just talking fetch and duration and that matters with this setup

  75. Harvey is thinking all tomorrow is fine and early evening and it starts around 10 or 11 tomorrow night. You guys agree.

        1. The 18z GFS looks like it has some light overrunning precip in here as early as late tomorrow PM but it does not look like a big deal.

  76. WFSB our CBS Stating here in CT has named the storm Ellie. The theme this year for the names musicians.
    I hope those bigger totals come down further south like the 18z GFS is showing. I take it with a grain of salt since its 18z GFS but if the 0z and 12z show that then game on here interior CT.

    1. The trend has been back south JJ and I would not at all be surprised if the heavier totals and some of the better initial overrunning get further south into CT. Models are starting to benefit from better sampling and will zero back in on a more southerly extent to the precip. Central and Northern NE are still going to do better with the initial overrunning over the weekend but SNE will be the focus of the heavier precip on Monday with the primary storm.

      1. Right now I think best shot of a foot here in CT areas close to MA boarder. If that southern trend continues will start
        bringing this heavier amounts further south into CT.
        Will be very interesting what tonight’s 0z and tomorrow’s 12z runs say as you indicated better sampling will be
        taking place with the energy coming ashore.

  77. As I stated yesterday, I was never in agreement with the highest snow growth region to our north. The overall pattern is more conducive of a suppressed system that brings the heaviest snow totals to SNE. The real meat and potatoes in terms of accumulating snowfall occurs from Sunday night through Monday night and the accumulations will be significant.

    1. We are definitely on the same page. I have been very suspect with the northerly trend in the models from the start as well.

      1. As you stated also snow show up into the new year so not to give up in December…….and guess what. You were right 🙂

  79. On the next update I will be looking at things in more detail. This post will be published on Saturday morning. Things I am mulling over include but are not limited to…

    -The entire thing starting very slowly with not much snow during the day Saturday.
    -Less than 6 inches of new snow by Sunday afternoon in some locations. This will cause many people to declare the entire episode a failure, as usual, without actually waiting until the episode is complete. This, I think, is beyond laughable.
    -Note that I said “some locations” above, because there will indeed by some that will likely be above that. People scoff at big ranges until they see in the final totals for the entire area just how variable they can be.
    -There will be a jackpot area, likely somewhere north of the Mass Pike and east of Worcester County where the snow for the entire event will exceed 15 inches and possibly reach 20 inches. This will be the EXCEPTION, not the rule, however.
    -Looking ahead a bit, the timing of the core of cold about next Friday will be critical. Small window for extreme cold, record-challenging. A follow-up shot may occur a few days later.
    -Looking way ahead…I know most met’s have indicated there is no sign to the pattern ending, but there actually is. There is some energy over Asia right now destined to spawn a very large storm in the Pacific that is likely going to alter the jet stream heading into North America after mid February.

    1. Nice write up TK. I think you’ve got the right call (as if my business degree matters here). My only caveat would be that maybe a larger area tops at the 20. Not based on science but on how storms have been generally over-performing to the upside of late. Plus I really think the overrunning will deliver more than maybe the models are able to pick up on.

      1. I agree retrac. More than one area will exceed 2 ft but the rule will be a widespread 12-18 inches of snow for most of SNE.

  80. NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 3m3 minutes ago
    High Temperature of around 0 degrees for #NYC Next Friday if 18z #GFS Verifies.

    NeastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 9m9 minutes ago
    RT @itsalleternal: If the current GFS is accurate, next Friday could be the coldest day EVER here in 132 years of observations.

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 2m2 minutes ago
    18z #GFS shows Low Temperatures Next #Friday Morning around -10 degrees from #NYC to #Boston.

  81. On TK’s comment regarding the media frenzy about the “worst winter ever,” I think it’s social media that plays a huge part in any “media frenzy” that occurs these days. I remember 1978. Then one “watched the evening news” or listened to the weather forecast on the radio and wasn’t bombarded by “Facebook forecasts,” “Twitter temperatures,” and or “what’s trending” about whatever the latest “model tweet” is. As far as I can tell the weather around these parts is pretty much the same as it’s always been – it’s just that folks are able to collectively obsess over and comment on what’s probaly way too much information for us to process in any cogent way. The capacity of our “devices” to bring us information is, I think way greater than the capacity of our minds to process what we’re being told. The most important question we can ask might be ” is knowing all this making us any happier…….?” I love reading this blog but haven’t yet graduated to facebook, Instagram or twitter. I still remember getting up early on snowy mornings to listen to Gary LaPierre on WBZ AM read the school cancellations list hoping to hear our town’s name………memories

    1. I agree about the social media aspect. There is hype in the mainstream media but that in itself is even fueled by social media because now the 2 go hand-in-hand.

      And out there in social media land, there is almost this unspoken competition to be the first to “break the news” with a high impact sentence or headline, such as “Snow that will be measured in feet” or “coldest in 132 years” or “worst ever”. There comes some feeling of power with being the one to put that out there to your audience. Believe me I know that it is tempting to want to be the one to “find it first” but my better sense tells me to always stick to what we do know and be open about what we don’t know. It’s ok to discuss possibilities as long as the discussion comes with proper explanation and notation where necessary.

  82. Tom did you say that this coming week the tides will be astronomically high? I apologize but cannot remember the period you named that will be risky at the coast if there were to be a storm

    1. Lower tides this coming week as we move away from full moon and toward last quarter. We won’t have any coastal concerns in the upcoming situation.

  83. TK, based on your comments above about a pattern change occurring beyond mid February, do you think this upcoming storm could be the last “big one” we have to deal with for awhile (or potentially even the rest of the winter)?

    1. History shows that it will be too early to call it the last “big one”. There have been enough indications of something significant around the 15th that we can’t forget about that yet. There is also always a risk of something taking place around the time of a pattern change.

  84. Also, what are your thoughts on some of the higher snow totals (12″+) extending further south into CT as the latest GFS guidance has been indicating?

  86. Tk do you agree with Harvey with the exception of some flurries snow holds off till between 10-12 tomorrow night. Trying to plan my day .

    1. I don’t think we get any measurable snow during the day tomorrow. Not sure if it’s 10PM tomorrow night, but sometime in the evening it becomes more likely.

      1. But probably after 10 or before. Sorry just planning cause once it starts I’m gone till Tuesday.thanks. How you feeling?

        1. South shore friend. How are the roads around the longwood hospitals? Is Brookline ave nasty or pretty good? Thanks. Heading in there Wednesday.

        2. Wouldn’t surprise me if we get at least some coatings before 10. These things have a history of coming early.

    1. Retrac, That is indeed very interesting. I noted a couple of days ago that only 300 miles south of here there is no snow on the ground. There are sharp contrasts across the country East/West; North/South. Warmth is not that far away, which probably means that if there is a pattern shift 10-14 days from now we may get relatively warm quickly.

  88. here are my snowfall predictions. Its hard as it could very well be a bust if the second clipper does not form. Storm stuff is towards the bottom as on the top i show a map of the country and shows its formation, I was asked by someone to do so.

  89. TK,

    First glad you are feeling better. We are driving to Florida on the 14th and 15th, what is your early call? Here to South Carolina on the 14th and then to Orlando on the 15th.

    1. IF there is a storm around then, you should just escape it, but be ready for a very cold start. The good news is, it does not look like the severe cold goes that far south, but stays more confined to New England.

      1. Thanks. I am concerned we will still be wearing a jacket there too! Was going to buy tickets in advance to a water park on the 16th but thinking of waiting until we arrive now just in case it is cold.

    2. Long drive to SC in one day. We did it a few times but 18 hours is about average. Ahhhh to be young again. I hope your trip is perfect.

      1. Yeah …. To be young again …… I dont remember that 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        It is fun to leave eastern Mass by car at like 3am and by 5 or 6 pm later in the day, your exhausted but in a very different world.

        1. I so miss those yearly road trips. That was before TVs in cars so we had tons of cassettes from narnia before it was big to fantastic mr fox. They were great adventures

          1. The plan for now is not a long venture next summer, but rather to stay in New England and do short 4-5 night trips all around New England. We’ll see, my wife will change her mind 950 times before then.

  90. The NAM’s a hilarious piece of work ….

    The reflective radar image it portrays really doesnt match up to its snowfall projections.

    I mean, just go back and forth btwn those 2 drop down images btwn hrs 27 and 36. Focus on an area from Boston, points 15 miles southbound.

    Tons of green echoes …. total snowfall …. Not much ….. Ok then. And, if you look at its precip type, it has snow in that region I’m decsribing, so you cant even excuse it to being rain or sleet.

  91. One thing though … and the GFS has it too.

    Behind one of the initial weak lows, probably withthe surface wind turning due north for a bit, both models are showing the low level cold air draining further into southernmost New England. This would be for early Sunday morning.

    Perhaps temps somewhat below freezing (20s ?) really falling well below freezing (teens ?)

  93. If you start to see that happening then it very well maybe game on here for inland CT. I still want to see a few more runs though as Mark pointed out earlier better sampling is happening.

    1. I agree, big time.

      Cold high to the north, cold ocean, coldest time of year and its got a moderate strength surface low just cruising through that over southern New England. Laughable.

          1. Agreed and I think Sunday also and here’s why …

            At hr 30, surface temp in Mass, CT and RI is a little below 0c.

            15 hrs later, that -10C isotherm moves to the South Coast of New England.

            Sunday is going to be frigid, especially just away from the coastline, with falling temps and anything that falls that day is going to stick to the roads with absolute ease.

            I think the temps shown on Sunday should be undercut big time.

  99. That foot accumulation now down to my area in CT on the latest GFS run. I would expect a winter storm watch to be issued sometime Saturday for at least the four northern counties.
    Hopefully those snow accumulations come down considerably for you guys up there as it is already bad enough will all that snow on the ground along with those big snow banks.

  100. TK – Did you hint of a storm this coming Presidents’ Day 2/16??

    Also I find it amazing that in spite of the 40 degree water temp, we have soooo much snow on the ground and very few rain/mixed systems for the forseeable future. I suspect that in 1978 and other winters in which we have had deep widespread snows those ocean temps were much colder (low-mid 30s).

    1. The ocean water temps were probably right around 40, maybe upper 30s, during the time of the Blizzard. We’d had a very variable temperature pattern in January with a shifting storm track including two very warm storm, then Arctic air settled in right about February 1 leading up to the Blizzard. There was rain on parts of Cape Cod during the ’78 Blizzard partly due to the “mild” water temps.

      Most of the area had plentiful cold thanks to the massive Arctic high to the north. This Winter we’ve also generally seen plentiful cold. You can get plenty of snow with ocean temps around 40. The cold wedges with these air masses are generally going to win out.

      Yes we have to watch for a storm in the Feb 14-16 period right between 2 big cold shots. Very volatile setup could lead to explosive development. It may be that it happens in the Gulf of Maine or in the Maritimes of Canada. It may also take place further south, putting New England in a vulnerable position. Today’s 00z GFS shows that with a monster bomb on Feb 15. Again, just a model run, and nothing to panic about right now.

      1. Well just for laughs, the 00z GFS produces 3 to 4 feet of snow in Boston through 384 hours but it looks like the big storm right at the end of the run would be rain. 😛

          1. I was still up. I got so much sleep between Thursday after they shut my a-fib down with drugs into Friday morning that I had no hope of sleeping before 3AM. But after a 5 hour nap I feel pretty well, other than still shaking this head cold. 😉

            But now it’s good morning!

  101. To TK,

    I am interested in your upcoming forecast for next weekend not so much because of storm potential, but actually want to hear your forecasted temps especially for Friday. I don’t see it getting above 10 degrees. (I saw one TV met who agrees, but saw a couple of others who have the high temp at 1/2 what I have.) I have some scheduled app’ts Fri that I would normally use the T for, but thinking the T won’t be working well that day.

    1. At 6 days away let me guess that areas NW of Boston stay below 10 and areas to the southeast especially near the coast go above it.

  102. Today’s (very off-season & very easy) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How strong does wind need to be in a tropical storm for it to be classified as a hurricane?
    A. 39 MPH
    B. 74 MPH
    C. 96 MPH
    D. 111 MPH

    I expect no incorrect answers. Actual answer later today.

  106. NWS TAUNTON MA 444 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
    SNOW TOTALS A TAD HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN WE EXPANDED THE SNOW GRID INTO MON EVENING. MODEL BLEND OF ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT 12″+ ACROSS MOST OF MA /EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST MA/. SLIGHTLY LESS…ON THE ORDER OF 8-12″ INTO NORTHERN CT AND RI GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN LATE MON/MON EVENING. SNOW TOTALS THEN BECOME MOST UNCERTAIN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN POTENTIAL DURATION OF MIXED PRECIP. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST 3-6″ WITH 1-3″ FOR THE ISLANDS. GREATEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS MA…FROM THE MA/CT/RI BORDER NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.

    HEADLINES… RECORD BREAKING COLD POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST TAKES AIM ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR EXAMPLE THE 00Z GEFS HAS -32C AT 925 MB OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI! THAT`S -3 STD FROM CLIMO! NOW THAT SNOWCOVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES WILL MODIFY VERY LITTLE IF ANY DURING THE DESCENT FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE MID LATITUDES.

  109. Winter Storm Watches have expanded here in CT to include all but the immediate shoreline. Looking at the 6z GFS for CT it looks like a 6-12 total over the next couple of days.

  112. The ECMWF looks like the best model to me right now. I might shift its axis of heaviest snow a little further north though. I’m now thinking generally 6-12″ south of the Pike, with the 12″ amounts closer to the Pike and the 6″ amounts farther south. 2-5″ South Coast. 12-18″ north of the Pike into southern NH, with perhaps a 20″ jackpot on the North Shore due to ocean enhancement. More than I was thinking yesterday, but I still feel a bit uneasy about the setup. My concerns are that it either ends up too warm, which would dramatically cut totals from Boston south, or that there ends up being less QPF than depicted by the models, which would occur if the stronger, secondary system falters.

    1. It would not shock me on bit of this stayed cold cold cold all the way down to the canal. A warm setup does NOT make sense to me.

  114. Astronomically …..

    47 days past the winter solstice, 42 days til the vernal equinox. (22 to meteorological spring)

      1. Not sure. Depends upon temperature etc in the snow growth
        region.

        I think it will be a bit more than 10:1, perhaps as high as 12:1??
        Just a guess. Because there WILL be some warming aloft, I don’t
        think ratios will be higher than 12:1, except perhaps at the beginning and end, but during the meat, somewhere between
        10:1 and 12:1.

        That’s just what I hope is a somewhat educated guess.

        I could look on SREF, but that has been useless for ratios,
        plus it’s still pushing heavier snows to the North. I just looked.
        It’s a JOKE. showing 5:1 to at most 10:1 across Southern NE
        with up to 25 0r 30:1 waaay up North.

  117. I like how the NWS mentions convective feedback as an isue on the GFS for discounting it and going with a Euro/Ukmet blend. Didn’t hat burn them a week or two ago!

  118. We’re still awaiting the passage of the NEXT ARCTIC front. NOT here yet.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    Coll water vapor loop. You would think the heavens are about to open up.

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20150207&endTime=-1&duration=12

    And here is the upper flow depicted for 7AM today

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_006_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150207+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

  119. Early this morning I sent a complaint message to the MBTA regarding moving away snow from the bus stops. They are an absolute disgrace. With very few exceptions even the heavily used stops are buried. I hope to see those bus stops opening up again by Easter weekend.

  121. Good morning all…

    Will be working on an updated blog this morning. The plan is to post at least 3 this weekend, possibly 4, depending on what is warranted. I’m feeling better as we go along. Takes a little while to recover energy back after extended a-fib and the head cold has delayed me as well but I’m over the hump on that one. 🙂 And that’s enough about me! You’ve all been very kind with your well wishes, thoughts, and prayers, and it means a lot to me!

    Now it’s time to focus fully on the weather! 😀

      1. Sooner than that for 1st flakes. Not to worry, very light stuff.
        It doesn’t really get going until between 1 and 4 AM tomorrow morning. 😀

        1. Right around there. Not SUPER DUPER cold in the snow growth region as the coldest air will be shallow and the rate of fall as you go up will not be that great, so we’re not going to be seeing those 20:1 type ratios this time.

            1. It’s always possible I have under-forecast them. 🙂 Sometimes that sneaky layer of cold is in just the right place, or sneaky layer of warmth in some cases as was the case on Monday when the snow “wouldn’t end” and just kept regenerating. Finally figured that out a little too late. 😛

  125. WARNING: FWIW this is from TIM kelly and this is what he thinks it will look
    like a NOON TODAY

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 5m5 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
    remember the game MERCY, when you clamped hands w someone & tried to bend them forward, until one or other said MERCY

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9PxNvUCcAMkMUd.png

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 4m4 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
    @SurfSkiWxMan that graphic shows snow falling exact opposite from yesterday & even a few hours ago.
    MERCY
    I GIVE
    #NOWCAST WARNING IN EFFECT

    1. He has some fairly strong ehoes on that graphic. We going to deal with slick
      roads this afternoon? I’m going out in an hour or so. That ought to be fun.

      1. No worries here.

        If anything reaches the ground by late morning-midday it is most likely to be across CT where they are in the “warmer” and “less dry” air as the boundary presses southward across that area. If you look upstream at the echoes, the ones on the north side are already fighting the dry air and losing the battle.

        1. Thought so. Looks like Tim Kelly likes to sensationalize
          a bit. No? he he he

          I do, however, see the radar starting to get active.
          As the NWS says, IMPRESSIVE northern stream short wave. Perhaps it will kick off this whole event. 😀

          1. The models have been hinting at the early start (today) even before many met’s started to catch on and were still going for Sunday. But it’s balanced by the dry air pressing down, so the compromise is probably the solution I mentioned above. Nevertheless, we’re near the boundary so just keep an eye on the radar as we go through the day.

      2. The roads are going to be absolutely horrific if that futurecast verifies. I should be at work by then hopefully.

      1. Thanks! It is snowing very lightly up here, 16 degrees, tops of the mountains are in the clouds. Mountain is 100% open! Deep snowpack, which isn’t always the case when we have a lot of snow down in ct/Ma. Great winter all around.

  128. 12Z NAM STILL wants to place the heavier SNOW to the North.

    Boston comes in at the Southern edge of the snow.

    Still running and a long way to go.

    1. I have not been able to trust that model at all going into this one. It’s just missing something.

      1. I understand that, however, it “appears” to be getting it.
        That is why I am really tuned into this run.

  129. What I wouldnt do for just a 3-6″ storm…oh well. Most of the real storms this year have been what use to be the biggest you use to get.

      1. Ya think. Not getting a good feeling on this. NOW I am back
        to my OCEAN EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT concerns.

        PERSISTENT NE to ENE wind blowing in from that Moist Atlantic with plenty of spread between Ocean temp and 850MB temp.
        Plenty of instability there to ADD to the synoptic snow.

        HOW MUCH so, is the Million Dollar question. Could be
        a HUGE WILD CARD in this thing. Stay tuned.

        We’ll be doing a TON of NOWCASTING with radar city galore.
        😀 😀 😀

      1. I KNOW. That was my earliest concern about this set up. Yours as well.

        Look at the NAM snow map, NOW that it has caught on AND it
        is higher resolution. NCEP-NAM / North America (mesh: 12 km interpolated to 33 km) SO it picks up on that ocean enhancement a little better than the global models.

        I am NOW VERY VERy WORRIED.’

        This WILL be a MUCH HIGHER IMPACT STORM than
        forecasters would have the PUBLIC believe.

        We could be looking at a STATE OF EMERGENCY come Monday.

    1. They DID revert.

      Just select composite to see the difference. On the default display ONLY the very strongest echoes are shown. I’ve seen it SNOWING pretty decently here
      with NO echoes showing at all on the normal display. Composite will get
      the weaker echoes.

    1. That’s 30 INCHES Boston NorthEastward.

      Not saying that is what will fall, but that’s a MIGHTY IMPRESSIVE
      SNOW MAP!!!!

  134. I’m very skeptical about the mix coming to Boston and vicinity. Doesn’t make sense, quite frankly. In fact, I don’t think Boston gets below freezing for the next 10 days. Pretty incredible, given that it’s February. Whatever falls will stick around for a while. My prediction is Boston gets around 15 inches in total, with Cape Ann receiving over 20 inches. That’s a lot, given the amount that’s already here. Many schools will be closed once again on Monday. Roads will be fairly bad for a 3 day stretch.

  135. Not just I, here’s a tweet from Joe Bastardi

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago
    By the time this is done in New England, it wont be small dogs buried.. but big dogs and perhaps some Shetland Ponies too

    1. Yes but we know he goes for the extreme in any cold or snow situation and is usually wrong. 🙂

  137. UNFORTUNATELY, Composite Reflectivity shows ECHOEs
    NOT reaching the ground. SO you know it’s out there, you just don’t know
    IF it’s making it all the way to the ground with that DRY AIR out there.

    Even on regular mode, one can readily see if beginning to FILL IN.

    SNOW is coming.

    1. I don’t get it your saying it’s coming. Tk and other mets said not till tonight. WhAts going on.

  139. I have had serious doubts about this thing from the beginning and I still have those doubts. It just doesn’t smell right to me. Some snow yes, big amounts(12″+) will be extremely localized

    1. Disagree completely…it may not seem like a good set up for snow but it is and like TK said yesterday it’s been uncommon of late but this setup occurred frequently in the 70s

  140. Tk is it still the same start time tonight later or is this in earlier. Sorry just tough trying to plan here .

    1. Pretty much the same. Doesn’t mean you can’t see brief periods of snow with coatings during the day but I think most of that stays just SW for now then fades before reforming tonight.

  141. O.S, I don’t know what you do for work, but you definitely missed your calling. You should be on tv right now pedicting the weather. You would be great at it. I have always said if you have passion for something toucan not be bad at it.!!!

  142. Radar are shows snow over my house in the central ct river valley of MA, I have overcast skies with some filtered rays of sun….

    1. Most of the “ability” is to the south right now and even that will be limited. Not a whole lot during the day.

  143. Not as skilled as many on here, but as I look at models shifting north and then back to the south, layers of warmth and cold, ocean enhancement given the wind direction, arriving fronts, etc., I feel like it’s about SOME forecasting with a heavy dose of NOW casting especially on a local basis. There seem to be so many, many variables in play over a 72-96 hour span that just a couple of things could change and we could be looking at very different snow amounts … higher or lower. Very unlike an event that occurs within a 12 hour window.

  144. GFS trending towards EURO in handling of late weekend/Monday system.

    Seems like system tranfers/redevelops much further south.

    Wonder if this system will be as good a precip producer as thought earlier.

    Signal still there for draining of cold air southward during the day tomorrow. Very interested to see how cold it gets tomorrow !

      1. I don’t mean to put you on the spot but what time do the roads start getting covered in Boston and walkways . I’m stressed to the max here.

  148. The greatest totals in this event will indeed be localized and most likely due to ocean-enhancement and maybe a little bit of orographic lift.

    I can place a fair bet that previous runs of GFS and current runs of NAM are, in general, too QP loaded. They don’t handle this situation well, in general. I haven’t seen the new GFS yet but I would think it’s about to head down a few ticks in totals and shift a bit south (colder). I just got up from visiting mom and my brother downstairs. My brother came by to widen some paths and move some snowbanks since I am still limited in physical ability for another day or so. 🙂 I have a great family. 🙂

  149. Look at what the 12z GFS is doing with the next clipper late next week …….

    Its moved it south of us, putting our region on the snowy side ….. Oh my !

      2. LOL ….

        From that scenario, the snow total map for this event and that, would be event, has turned most of Massachusetts purple.

  150. Careful of the details on the GFS for late next week. It plays around with closed upper systems, not always sure where to put them, and that will have a direct impact on what its surface forecast is.

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