Weekend Update #2

199 Comments

9:54AM

SUMMARY…
This is just a quick update to the previous post. There are no changes to the discussion there, and the next one will be posted tonight, so for now I am just going to repost a slightly tweaked forecast from that update including the total snowfall accumulation forecast, which I have left alone at this time. Also, will add next Saturday for the new “day 7” and then later tonight will revisit the entire thing and forecast the coming 7 days through next Sunday.

SNOW…
***TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR EVENT FROM START TO FINISH: 2-4 inches immediate South Coast, 4-8 inches just away from South Coast from central RI eastward across Upper Cape Cod, and 8-16 inches elsewhere, and spotty amounts above 16 inches are likely along east coastal MA and NH as well as a few towns on eastern slopes of higher hills.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of snow, mostly light. Additional accumulation around 1 inch with locally 2 inches mainly north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures nearly steady from 15-20 southern NH to near 30 South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Steadier snow, mostly light to moderate with a few heavier bands favoring east coastal areas of MA and NH. Additional accumulation of 2 to 10 inches from south to north with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Also, sleet/ice/rain mixing near the South Coast at times. Temperatures nearly steady ranging from the upper 10s northern MA and southern NH to lower 30s South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, later Monday, shifting more to the NE and N Monday night.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers especially eastern areas otherwise clearing. Breezy. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Early snow, then clearing and windy. Low 0. High 10.
SATURDAY: Sun & high clouds. Low -10. High 5.

199 thoughts on “Weekend Update #2”

  1. REPOST

    Those of you that are friends with me on my personal FB page have seen this photo but I will share it here. Took this photo just after 10:30PM last night (Saturday) atop Zion Hill on the west side of Woburn MA. Snow was falling and the wind was calm, yet look at the American flag, which froze solid as the wind was extending it and the temperature was crashing after the overnight rain and during the midday snow on Thursday.

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10984255_10153122008697265_2301600297623437332_n.jpg?oh=80612a099f9e40c13bdcb24a792d784d&oe=554F6E77&__gda__=1432516882_41c4147d7358af098414afa3317efd6a

    1. If this is a bust, there are going to be lots of embarrassed TV mets, especially at WHDH, where they seem to be at he most aggressive with their snowfall projections. 23 degrees in North Reading with hardly noticeable snow and about 3 inches on the ground from the overnight snow.

    1. We have between 4 and 5 and I think we end up at least partially under the influence of the enhanced band for a time, so I’ll go with 16 total. We’re almost 1/3 of the way there.

      Keep in mind we’re going to be cold here, so it won’t take much to quickly put down 1 or 2 inches under enhanced echoes, so 16 is said with moderate confidence.

  5. Today is good day to do any additional cleanup needed and get rid of any more snow on the roof, etc. any more snow and then rain is going to start making things dangerous. I am off to spend a couple of hours outside. Going over to Charlie’s for a pool party around 2 🙂

  6. Thanks TK. Love the picture.

    Neighbor had house sided this past fall. They put vents in siding to send cold air into attic. No icicles and no ice dams. Not sure how it works; but, as I sit listening to the front window drip. I want it done here.

  8. Just got a report from my brother, who lives on the north slope of a hill in North Woburn just outside 128. A house further up the hill had burst pipes and the water is cascading from the second floor wall down the back of the house (probably into their basement), across their lawn which is now saturated snow, into my brother’s back yard and right down his driveway in a slushy waterfall essentially. Big mess. Luckily it is not going through my brother’s house too, which sits on rock and essentially in the water table. Hopefully they can resolve that situation soon.

    And BTW we will be doing another snow pile contest this Spring. We might have to do a slush/ice river contest too at this rate…

      1. It was probably from recent cold and it just gave out finally. Also possible something else caused it.

    1. No more significant accumulation for the next several hours here. If you are going to do 2 rounds of cleaning, the next 6 hours is your window for the first round.

  11. 12Z RGEM snowmap. Does NOT include the 3-4 inches prior to 7AM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020812/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    4KM NAM, same conditions as above

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015020812/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

    So, the HIGHER RESOLUTION 4KM NAM show MORE ocean enhanced snow near
    the coast than even the regular NAM.

    That’s showing 16=18 inches, not including 3-4 inches that already fell and it assumes
    10:1 ratio.

    GAME ON.

  12. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1m1 minute ago
    Mother Nature – staahhppp it. After this, another chance for significant snow on Thursday. Possibly another on Sunday.

    1. I don’t believe that. IF you watched the BIG Lake effect snows earlier
      this season, then you would see that they are, indeed, very capable
      of extending a good ways inland. 😀

      If anything, they may NOT be taking it far enough inland.

  18. I see the weekend sports talk show guys poo pooing this event and poking fun
    at people who have prepared for it. Not good.

  19. Says one neighbor to the other…”so much for a big snow storm huh?” Neighbor replies…”they (weather people) don’t know what they are taking about.” Hahaha.

      1. Haha. Guy next to me and the guy across the street. They are out cleaning thinking it’s over. Love it.

          1. Nah one of them has a bird feeder that causes me so much grief with birds on my roof. Let him sink 🙂

          2. Nope. If they don’t have it figured out, they will not. I think the only people folks love to hate more than the Pats are meteorologists. Both laughably irrational

    1. Light snow for the most part here in Hingham right now but it does look a little heavier to the south.

      1. It was fascinating to watch the radar loop of the synoptic snow from the WNW move out and reveal that lower level ocean band there.

        1. I noticed that too. The ocean band seems pretty stable right now but I’m on the fringe of it here in West Hingham.

  22. Plows were very active about an hour ago here in Hingham. Going over the main roads again and again. Even some of the main roads have become really narrow. Driveways keep getting plowed back in.

  23. Ok, seeing some action now with the temperature.

    It has now dropped to 27,5 It was 29.5 just a few minutes ago.

    1. Also, Wind at Beverly, Boston and Blue Hill now NorthEast.
      Wind at Bedford North
      Norwood North

      Hmmm

      There should be an area of Convergence just back from the coast
      and MORE Ocean bands “Should” Be moving in.

      We “may” see SNOW redevelop much Sooner than expected.

      Be on the look out for that. 😀

  24. 4.2 inches in North Reading as of 9 a.m. Temperature dropped a little bit in the last few hours, down to 21.4 degrees. Round one of cleanup done. Bring it, Mother Nature.

    Supposed to be heading to the Opera House tonight for 6:30 show of Motown. Wonder if that is going to happen. Can anyone tell me what things will be looking like around 5 this afternoon?

    1. That band on the south shore has reached inland, been hitting me with light but steady snow all morning, maybe another inch though since 7am

    1. Like, what are we supposed to do with that????????
      we should just tilt the state and let it all slide into the ocean.

        1. When I look at that map I see 3 on outer cape to 6 moving inland. 6 from there up and along Charlie’s area to 12. 12 from Charlie’s area around the darker up to 24 blob and into New Hampshire with the 18 up closer to MA/NH border. The blob says to me anywhere in that area could be two feet plus

    1. That band that we are on edges of seems to be heavier over the Norwell area where the Med Center is. We just got through removing a ton of snow from area of the parking lot (patient area mostly). I might have to swing by later to see what’s happening down there.

      1. And I have to head a bit towards the northwest in the next hour to run an errand in Hanover, so, we’ll see what its like there.

  30. Shallow, cold air is making better southward progress through the Merrimack Valley and into Worcester County. Lawrence, Bedford, Fitchburg and Worcester all under 20F.

    Not so in easternmost Mass. Beverly and Logan hanging around the 26F to 28F mark.

    1. Also seems to be filtering into the western and southwestern suburbs right now..although the drop is not as pronounced.

      1. Interesting, interesting stuff !!

        Its springlike in the rest of the Country and our surface air is coming from eastern Canada and Maine. 🙁

  33. Almost done cleaning just have to get roof. Wish this was all we were getting…cleanup was easy for once.

  34. First sign of pattern change starting to show up in some of the medium range guidance in the form of a large scale trough and Pacific jet stream off the US West Coast after February 21. The atmospheric readjustment that takes place at least partly as a result of this feature may finally cut off the direct line from Siberia to New England via Greenland and eastern Canada. The questions will include timing, i.e., will it be delayed? Will there be a significant storm of snow, rain, or both, marking the change? In the mean time, as Barry called it, a “convoy of clippers” will continue to give snow threats and cold blasts, obliterating my February temperature forecast and driving home the fact that even though I forecast a snowy February, I understated it.

          1. When it happens – my initial guess would be 2 weeks from now – I think it’ll be a significant and prolonged warm-up. Take a look at the map of the U.S. The Northeast is really the only region with well-below average temps. Virginia is in the 60s and close to 70. DC has been in the 50s. To our west it’s not especially cold at all. SE ridging will eventually bring in a warm southwesterly. The stronger sun will do the rest. Mother nature will correct itself, and for the most part our snow piles will feel like a distant memory one month from now.

            1. I agree that the snow will probably be gone earlier this year than it was last year. Low chance we see a March as cold last the one in 2014.

  35. My reservation with going for it to warm up too quickly is the fact we have 2 to 4 feet of refrigerant on the ground right now. That will have an impact for a while.

    I have a feeling that we may not completely escape this without a significant rain just after the pattern changes. I’m not trying to be gloom and doom, but I think it changes because of an active jet off the Pacific, and that often leads to some good precipitation slugs traversing the Lower 48.

    1. Agreed. The refrigeration effect will lead to cooling at night even when we have a pattern change in place. And, New England won’t feel like DC or Virginia. But, snow can melt very rapidly in late February and early March. Days in the 40s with sun will do that. Rain and fog will do the rest. I recall Nemo’s snow melting away within a 10-14 day period. And, the early March storm in 2013 melted away even faster than that. The large snow piles are a different story. We’ll probably be seeing dirty snow remnants for a long time.

  36. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Euro cuts back forecast snow region-wide. Pretty impressive paring back on all models (except the GFS)

  37. Here in Quincy, we had a couple of inches of snow that we cleared up last night, and just now I removed another 3 inches. It’s been snowing pretty consistently all morning, and it’s snowing lightly now, enough to have laid down a dusting in the last 30 minutes or so since I came in. Looking out the window earlier I thought there was maybe an inch. It’s hard to judge from even a short distance.

  38. Let me play devils advocate here….why I don’t think the pattern will change to a warmer spring like pattern any time soon has to do with the idea that the midwest, mid Atlantic have been warmer than usual with us in the northeast sort of in our own winter wonderland. Let’s say those warmer areas revert towards a colder late winter as the cold makes its last runs before retreating towards Canada…if that’s the case, where would our warmth come from? This hasn’t been the type of winter where we have had a deep trough in the east nor much blocking, so what are we reverting back to that screams warmth? I don’t think we’ll stay in this very cold pattern, but I don’t see any prolonged warmth either.

    1. I agree. The next two weeks will be bitterly cold. Around 2/25 there should be a pattern change, but only one that supports more of a variable cold/warm pattern. And this brings the risk of continued storminess, although it could lead to a pattern like we saw for much of early winter where it gets cold, but then warms up for the storms. But I don’t see sustained warmth in sight, and I’d expect that we’ll be dealing with snow threats right through most of March (which is not unusual of course).

    2. I need a bit more time, but there are a couple of significant signs that the pattern breaks big time, and other than a warm-up delay here because of the big snow pack, we are missing some key ingredients that we had around last year to lead us to a very cold March.

      -The pattern change is likely to be driven by, or at least in part by, a Pacific jet stream that floods the US with milder air. The country would probably see near to above normal temperatures everywhere with a few small exceptions, and a delayed warm-up in the deeper snowcovered areas of the Northeast.

      -Last year at this time, nearly the entire US except parts of the extreme Southwest were suffering a very cold Winter and snow was covering 2/3 of the Lower 48.

      -Right now, it’s mild to very mild in the central and western US and snowcover is limited to about 1/3 of the Lower 48, significantly less than last year at this time.

  39. I’m sensing a bust. We’re due for one, and I think this is it. I never felt comfortable about this setup. Too much had to come together. How often really are you going to get a February 1969 setup? Or even half that? Just not gonna happen. 8-12″ total for most. Wish I would’ve stuck with my “most places under a foot” call from the past few days. Still risk for that enhanced band north of Boston, but even there, 18″ may be out of reach.

  40. Boston and Beverly temps down at 1pm, Beverly with a big drop.

    Believe it or not, its a rain/snow mix in eastern Marshfield. Above freezing, 4 miles west at Rte. 3, it was in upper 20s with snow.

      1. Wow …

        Roads here very wet, with some puddles on the side.

        When that cold arrives here, it will get icy even without snow.

  44. Not sensing a bust….seems to me the atmosphere continues to want to snow…exhibit A: last night we were slated to get 1-3 region wide…no one blew that out but many of us were at the high end of that range or slightly over…there was suppose to be a lull now and then the radar fills in. Shott range models should be used at this point and radar watching. We’ll know soon if this will bust or not, but I’m betting not

  46. TK how much time before snow starts up? Want to go out but hate putting the car back in the garage with snow on it. Thanks.

    1. Based on current trends, 5PM or so.

      There are 2 synoptic bands lined up east to west, one of them, the northern one, is aimed right at northern MA (including Woburn) and southern NH. The southern one is aimed for the South Coast and may be part of expanded snow later, but we’ll see. Still are wild cards in play including ocean-effect and the boundary setting up just inland from the coast.

      I’m tempted to lean more heavily toward the lower ends of the range at the moment but will hold back on making that leap until late afternoon when I can re-evaluation the situation.

        1. Monday, probably no school. Tuesday, I’m going to go out on a limb and say 2 hour delay.

  47. I’m going to guess that this ocean effect begins to translate a bit further north and as it does so, it might intensify again.

    2 reasons …..

    1) a little nowcasting off of the wunderground boston radar

    2) the true cold/arctic air is arriving

    1. While it looks the band on the Shore has moved inland a little it also looks like it has expanded somewhat south.

      Heading to Hannafords to pick up a prescription and pick up some snacks 🙂

      Be back in about 45 minutes or so.

    2. I have never understood the closing school before it starts snowing thing. What if this is a bust? BPS will certainly look silly.

  49. Just went out and shoveled again….the plows just keep pushing it back in the walkway and driveway. Thankfully with the shrinkage that took place earlier this week I still get the snow up on the banks. Temp dropped from about 32 to 27 in the past 90 minutes. Snow and mist have changed to all snow but very light. Roads are going to ice up soon.

  50. NWS trimmed a whole lot off their max accumulation area, more to the reality of what the maximum potential is. I still think lower ends of those ranges are far more likely than upper.

        2. That’s OLD and I don’t think those number even come
          close to verifying at this point. We shall see.

            1. Not you. NWS needs to update it.
              They’ll get around to it, perhaps by the end of the storm. 😀

              Who knows, perhaps they still believe it.

              We shall see. Still monitoring the situation

  52. Been busy with lunch, then clean up#1 and then talking with my wife.

    Snowing here. Been snowing for quite awhile, although quite lightly.

    21.2 here

    Snow has picked up some in the last several minutes. Potential BUST?
    I suppose so. We’ll have to see.

    My mind set has been for NO WORK tomorrow. If it busts and I have to go in,
    It will be like school when the predicted snow storm rains. 😀

    Oh btw, measured 3.75 inches here so far.

  53. Down to 16 here in Westborough, we got just about 4 inches thus far (all of it falling overnight). Hopefully we can pull another foot of snow off.

      1. No. If you looking carefully at the heading/title
        it says from 0Z on 2/8, which was 7PM last night before
        any real snow started. 😀

        1. Oh, I think it says from 19z 2/8 until 00z 2/11.

          So ….. 2pm this afternoon til 7pm Monday night … ???

          1. You are correct oh wise one. Sorry for my blunder.

            yes, so add 2-4 inches to that depending on
            location.

  56. News SNOW band just slammed into the Hull,hingham,Weymouth area from the Ocean.
    MEANS BUSINESS!!! WOW out of no where!!!!

  57. Just started to snow lightly outside my window.
    From that NCEP map you posted Old Salty if that holds that 6-12 that was forecasted for inland CT will work out.

  58. Is the very fine snow we are getting part of ocean effect? Also is that ocean effect I see along south shore expanding tiny bit to north and west ?

          1. Coastal front setting up? Same thing happened here about an hour ago…was really cool to watch. Now just heavy snow.

  59. This kind of storm is qualitatively different from the others. I think that forecasting totals with this storm is harder, and that forecast totals will differ from actual amounts, both at the upper and lower ranges. So, some towns will get more than expected. Others will get less. Very hard to tell at this point who will win the jackpot or lose out. Also, it is too early to say bust.

  60. The ocean component and the colder than expected temps (at least colder than I anticipated) could lead to some surprises for coastal areas. I actually have thought all along that forecast totals for the south shore were too low. The forecast maps don’t make a lot of sense to me in this regard. I think parts of the south shore (eg, Hingham) will get more than Boston and perhaps much more. This is one of those storms that will feature significant differences across locales that may only be a few miles apart.

  61. I have been at the in-laws in west Roxbury since noon for Sunday dinner, 3″ so far and it’s been snowing ever so lightly, u have to squint to see it

  64. Just got back from Hannafords and catching up on the posts. Snowing fairly heavy here vis about 1/4 mile at times…Wow. Roads are nasty right now probably an inch has fallen since I left a little over an hour ago. Temp down to 24.

    1. With that band on Radar not surprised at all. Many thanks for the confirmation.
      AND happy you are back safely.

  65. Have any other school districts closed yet? I just don’t understand the reason for boston to announce closing so soon and for both days no less. At least wait till tonight to see if this thing actually materializes. Unless there’s so legit benefit to the early announcement it seems unecessary.

  66. Snowing with a bit more intensity here now. I don’t need to squint as the
    SNOW is readily visible out the window AND it is slowly accumulating as the
    recently cleared vehicles are totally covered with a nice coating.

  67. That batch of ocean snow south of the city is quite small and only drifting around. But that area is a little stronger than some of the short range guidance had indicated. At the same time the stuff to the north is taking a little longer to materialize.

  68. Patience, patience ………

    I personally think the big picture of many, many inches of snow to come and ….. in those enhanced areas (either by ocean or by orographic), foot plus is coming.

    Just needs time to unfold …….

    The pieces are out there. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  69. Current Composite Radar

    http://i.imgur.com/R8JqonG.jpg

    Can see Band South of City and Synoptic Snow to the West moving in.
    This shows echoes at all levels, so we can see some that isn’t reaching
    the ground. I like to use it to see what is up there and what potentially
    could reach the ground. Can get a heads up on what’s coming in.

  70. Band to the SOUTH Just went SUPER INTENSE. Shifted to YELLOW
    echoes on radar, usually indicating 2+ inches per hour SNOW RATES!!!

    UNREAL!!!!

    5. You said “UNREAL” just the way that Al Michaels did when Butler intercepted the ball at the goal line. 🙂

  73. I’ll be working on The Week Ahead soon. Based on the following, I will be backing off slightly on the big storm chance for Thursday and even moreso for the weekend, and taking a cold but drier route. Not snow-free, just less snowy.

    This is based on “the law of averages”, a hunch, a belief that the ECMWF 12z run is not a good one, and a few other factors.

    NO we cannot turn our backs on both of those snow threats, given recent history and pattern persistence, however I feel the biggest challenge may be timing the cold and judging its magnitude.

    More to come…

  75. Framingham has a parking ban through until Wednesday at 6:00 am. These seem to precede school being cancelled. I wonder if parking and clearing and sidewalks have to do with Boston closing two days. Normally they prob wouldn’t close but clearing will take a lot of time.

  76. This talk of potential bust has me cracking up. This thing has behaved as advertised has in Boston anyways. That strong ban just left here. The next ban should be in by 5 or just after dont look for this one to let up. No bust folks.

    1. The bust talk is more regarding regionally. There are going to be localized areas that do very well. But if that boundary ends up further east than expected it shifts everything regarding northeastern MA jackpot zone eastward, and possibly even partially offshore.

        1. Well nobody was saying Boston was about to get nothing else. If it pans out, I figure final total around 15 inches for the city, maybe a bit more.

  77. Very strange ….

    The wind is calm.

    Maybe the cold air doesnt make it here, usually, when it gets to Boston, we’re about 1 hr later, but nothing yet.

    1. There is more of a SW to NE orientation of the boundary at the moment… The northern part is further E than some of the guidance indicated, at least at this point.

  79. After this storm I also hope thursday and sunday will be a miss. Regardless if one likes snow or not this is just too much at once and we need a break and some melting. Hopfully when this ends tuesday we get that break.

  81. Wellesley and Weston closed. Wellesley rarely closes and Weston tends not to either. Belmont and Arlington don’t surprise me as they are closer to the coast.

  82. Still snowing moderately here Hingham. A fine snow with vis about 1/2 mile. Temp at 20 while just 5 miles to the east in Cohasset it’s 28. Band seems to be edging NW right now with another wider band perhaps coming in behind it. More coming from the west.

        1. When I was out earlier the roads from here to Norwell were really nasty on the way back. Probably worse now. Haven’t seen a sander or plow in awhile now.

          1. All pavement here ….. At Rte. 3, exit 12 eastbound on Rte. 139, its been 32F or slightly above for many hours now. Really no precip for a while either.

            Still worried if the weight of the dense, cold air pushes the front thru Marshfield. Everything is wet.

            The other neat thing is that the air has drained right past us to our west. It has gotten much colder in Taunton, which is certainly south of Marshfield’s latitude.

            1. Intensity has picked up here again. Vis below a 1/2 mile. Looking at temps and wind direction it looks like the front (?) is running N/S now from just around Hull through Wampatuck State Park down through Hanson and just west of Halifax

  83. 15F at Logan, and destined to go lower ….. as its even a bit colder to the north and northeast.

    Some 20+ degrees milder on the south shore. We are still 36F. The top of the snow is wet and slowly melting/ compacting.

    This is wild ! What a crazy setup ……..

      2. Boston”s going to get crushed tonight Tom, were in a very quick lul right now. Im betting those temps come down Tom.

  84. Came out to clean car and head to bertuccis
    To pick up some pizzas. Wow it was snowing
    Like crazy!! Intensity varied as I drove.
    Still coming down good while I await the pizzas.

    Pretty wild out there. Many weenies on
    The road who have no clue. Roads are trecherous!!@

    GRAMMIES TONIGHT. AC/Dc perform!!!@

  86. I just came back from the supermarket. It’s been snowing hard here in Quincy for a couple of hours, and before that it was snowing lightly. Breaks in the snow were short lived. The supermarket was busy but not nutty, and they had not run out of anything yet. Roads are snow a covered, but not bad. It’s the piles of snow by the sides of the road that reduce visibility

    Looking at the radar, it appears the ocean effect snow bands have merged with the snow coming from the west. It will be interesting to see how this all pans out. I’m wondering about work tomorrow. The Braintree branch of the red line has busing as they clear the tracks, but I wonder how effective that will be given the overnight snow/tomorrow’s snow. Plus, we’ll still have the same old trains in the morning.

  87. You were right TK. Many people are calling this a bust before the storm even gets going.

    It’s been snowing in Westwood all day and the intensity is really picking up.

    Patience everyone. Eastern sections of MA are really in for it. 12-18 inches with localized 2 ft.

    Allow the storm to materialize before calling for a bust. The storm gets going tonight through tomorrow night. Not much was expected up to this point.

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