The Week Ahead

563 Comments

5:40PM

ONGOING…
Long-duration winter weather event continues. Through the middle of Sunday afternoon, snow amounts were generally from 1 to 6 inches across the region though little if any snow had fallen near parts of the South Coast, and heaviest amounts were up over portions of northern MA and southern NH. This portion of the event generally went as expected with waves of snow moving eastward along and north of a front that passed by yesterday, and a few pockets of ocean-enhanced snow from the east, though this was concentrated a little more to the south of Boston than I expected. The bulk of this event is still coming and will get underway this evening and last through Monday night before exiting early Tuesday. At this time, there are still no significant changes to the overall break-down of how I expect this to go. Mixing is still likely along the South Coast with limited snow totals there, and elsewhere additional moderate accumulation seems a certainty. The key to the accumulation forecast continues to be where enhancement takes place and the thinking has been this is most likely to be near and just west of a boundary somewhere near the coast from the Boston area to the NH Seacoast region, and also in some of the eastern slopes of the Worcester Hills. For now this remains the idea though little subtle details may still be yet to reveal themselves. For example, the boundary that I can detect has been a little further east and slower to start producing in areas to the north of Boston than I expected. That said, as of the writing of this update just after 5PM on Sunday, the radar trends upstream (to the west) tell me that a decent shot of snow will be coming tonight and probably continuing into tomorrow. We will have to see what happens with the potential enhanced snow areas. After debating with myself, I have decided to leave the snow totals alone for now, but may need to update them later. So the total snow for this event, INCLUDING snow that has already fallen, is still expected to be on the order of 2-4 inches South Coast, 4-8 inches just inland from the South Coast, and 8-16 inches elsewhere with pockets of greater than 16 inches in parts of northeastern MA, southeastern NH, and eastern slopes of hills.

UPCOMING…
The entire mess that created the long-duration event will be shifting offshore by early Tuesday in the form of elongated low pressure stretching north to south, quite different from the original look it had. But no matter, as it will be out of here. What arrives next is dry but chilly weather as a small area of high pressure comes in later Tuesday and persists through Wednesday. But here comes the next trough in a series and that will traverse the Northeast from west to east Thursday and early Friday. This presents the next snow threat and I still have a fair amount of questions to answer regarding how I think this will work out, snow-wise. For now, it appears that some type of snow event will take place starting early Thursday and ending early Friday, and it has the potential to be at least moderate. After it departs, the door opens for a strong shot of Arctic air later Friday and into the weekend. The magnitude of this cold is also somewhat uncertain, as this type of cold outbreak usually presents a fragile forecast with timing of the cold core very critical to daytime and nighttime temperatures, along with sky condition, wind, and precipitation. A lower confidence forecast will appear regarding any further snow chances, as I am leaning toward the drier side versus the stormy side, but recognize that there is indeed potential for something more important to evolve. One thing is for sure, it’s going to be quite cold next weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely, some moderate to heavy, except some sleet/ice/rain near the South Coast. Additional snow accumulation at least 1-3 inches South Coast, 3-6 inches just inland from the South Coast, and 6-12 inches elsewhere with heavier pockets in above mentioned areas. Temperatures ranging from the middle 10s north to lower 30s far south. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty most areas except NE 10-20 MPH and gusty closer to the coast and especially over southeastern MA. Wind chill near 0 especially Boston north and west.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow showers. Additional light accumulation likely. Blowing snow. Lows 5-10 northwest of Boston, 10-15 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers eastern coastal areas and may linger into mid morning Cape Cod, otherwise breaking clouds west to east with some sun. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH Cape Cod, 5-15 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Chance of snow early. Clearing. Low 10. High 20.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows -10 to +5 northwest to southeast. Highs 5-15, coldest northwest.

563 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  4. Thanks TK

    Baker said limited Logan flights. He is asking all but essential boston workers stay home. He is not having a ban but asks that employers allow folks to work from home or tell them to stay home.

        1. That was what he said. I didn’t hear questions afterward. He said they did not close it because of people need to get to emergency doctor appts etc it needed to be open. He clearly does not want folks going to work

              1. It’s referring to Monday. The Braintree branch of the Red Line has been busing all day today in order to clear the snow. Hopefully employers are sympathetic and let people stay home. The Braintree branch is over capacity during the rush hours. I can’t imagine what it would look like with 4 trains per hour versus the scheduled 6-7.

    1. that concerns me greatly!! Living on the shawsheen river marshland and all this snow = big time flooding!!

    2. 18z GFS more than 2 weeks out….it’s not that far west either…the storm before that it was showing rain to snow is now all snow….I’m willing to bet that will move further east on successive runs…..crazy pattern

  11. So if the governor calls for people to work from home,does that mean those of us who do work from home get the day off so we so not overload the balance ??

    1. This is such an issue for me. Our office will close which technically means no one works but we are expected to work from home. So half the company will have a legit day off while I have to work a full day remote. Drives me nuts.

      1. I was kidding since I do work from home. But I never worried about that sort of stuff when I was in office. For those in my department who did work when others didnt, I always made sure they had comp time. Times are changing and we allow management to get away with stuff that never existed.

  13. My company won’t close tomorrow, it has to be a severe storm for them to close for the day, like a blizzard (we closed for the blizzard 2 weeks ago). A foot won’t cut it.

      1. Thats 3 of these for some parts in a week.

        Last Monday, Thursday and tonight.

        We didnt really share in last Monday’s, but just south of us did.

  19. NWS update : “hi-res guidance shows this front beginning a west trend back towards I-95 btwn 9-12z”

    My advice, ignore the guidance. The coastal front, I dont think, stands much luck moving back westward against this heavy, dense low level cold air. The cold air is draining southward and somewhat eastward ……..

    FWIW, the Boston Harbor buoy’s wind direction BACKED 10 degrees to 040 last hour.

    The hi-res guidance hasnt gotten this coastal front position correct yet, it isnt going to have at correct at 9-12z.

    1. So Tom what do you think? I’m curious. he he he

      Barry indicated the same. He said it would end up in the I95 corridor.

      So far it hasn’t meant diddly squat. precip just as heavy or light as the case may be on EITHER side of that magical coastal front! So where’s the BEEF?????

      1. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

        There’s a spin in the Great Lakes here ….. and I think that maybe, it needs another several to maybe 12 hrs to get near to the mid Atlantic coast to help increase the low level easterly and northeasterly jet that the NWS keeps discussing.

        Once that happens, that increased moisture from the northeasterly jet plus the arctic air in place being forced up over the arctic front should really kick in the localized ocean effect snows.

        I’m guessing the true ocean effect impact will be from 4am til noon tomorrow.

        As far as the position of the coastal front, I actually think what Ace posted below, that the front continues slightly east a bit more, maybe stalls for the time I gave above and then pushes further eastward.

        I think the heavy snow band hits Boston and a bit southward.

      2. Oh About 2 centimeters or so. Do you SEE ANY enhanced precipitation to the West of the Front? I sure as Hell do NOT.

  22. HRRR forecasts snow rates of between 1/2 and 1 inch per hour ALL night long, with
    4 AM to 8AM ALL 1 inch each hour. We shall see how that plays out.

  23. NOT IMPRESSED with snowfall rates at all.
    Sure once in awhile it looks good, but doesn’t last and reverts
    to a WIMPORAMA.

    We shall see.

    HRRR confirms what Tom said about. Starting about 4AM rates increase
    and STAY that way.

    If we get 8 inches overnight, total will be about 12-13 inches.

    1. The rates were not supposed to be that high anywhere in this other than in enhanced areas, which will be the exception not the rule.

      1. Exactly, which is why i was surprised when NWS maps started coming out with such widespread high #’s when the meat of the storm was effectively an 18 hr period where rates would need to be high to achieve those numbers

  24. Anyone who has to travel take it easy on those roads. Its been snowing here since about 3 pm. Looks like a moderate snowfall where I am but going to miss out on the big totals.

    1. Thanks JJ. Son on his way here from very south RI as he is required to get to work tomorrow. Here is closer than there.

  26. Well framingham has sent out a phone call, and email And a cell phone call. All, including email, are in Spanish. I suspect we are to assume school is cancelled. Or not

  27. Synoptic snow is diminishing upstream and things should get lighter again in the next 2 to 3 hours, with the exception of ocean-enhanced areas near the boundary.

    1. Looks that way from here. It’s going to lighten up in a bit. Thinning radar echoes to the west and not a whole lot coming off the ocean yet.

  29. Not sure what’s going on in the rest of the area but my goodness. Winds and snow are whipping in the south end.

  30. I don’t think this storm should be compared to our two previous ones. This one has behaved as advertised: Stretches of light to moderate snow, with lulls, for a 60 hour stretch. In the end, I think Boston will have well over a foot of snow. Perhaps as much as 18 inches, but probably 14 or 15. I think that a few towns like Hingham, but also Gloucester may get a little more. All in all, a lot of snow, especially given what we already have.

    1. January 27 behaved as advertised and this one is so far.

      The one last Monday was a little more devious, especially with that never ending snow generation due to the shallow mild air sitting atop the Arctic air.

  31. Sorry I was off the grid for a few while watching some BSG (reimagined series from 2004-2009) with my wife (who is getting into to it big time). Still west of the front here with moderate snow and vis around 1/2 mile. Around 9 inches of new snow overall. Temp at 17.

          1. Loved WW too. BSG (to me anyway) possibly the best show ever on TV. And this is coming from someone who loved TNG and DS9.

  33. It’ll be worth taking pictures on Tuesday of the snow piles, drifts, and icicles. Just to show your friends/relatives in San Diego, or your children/grand-children who live in Texas, or to just to save as reminders when future generations want to see what it looked like in and around Boston and other parts of New England in the winter of 2015. I know that we had similar piles, drifts, and icicles in 2011, but it is rare, especially in the city. I think it’s safe to say the past two weeks have been pretty special if you like snow and winter. I’m not one for hyperbole, yet the last 14 days in combination with the forecast brutal cold in mid February will go down as historic even if records are not broken per se.

  34. Reading through comments – are folks saying this storm isn’t severe and that Boston should not have cancelled schools? Because driving home from Somerville about an hour ago… I would totally agree with the call to cancel. Woof!

      2. Agreed. Tuesday will not be an easy commute, but it will be doable. Allow a little extra time Tuesday morning, but don’t cancel.

        1. That’s really the thing, Vicki. And it’s hard to understand that if you don’t traverse the city by foot day in and day out.

          1. Even in framingham the sidewalks are miserable and the roads are getting narrower by the hour. I don’t know what kids will do going forward.

  35. Boston should easily reach 18-20 inches . I’m in it not to many breaks in the action this part if Boston. It’s cold and the wind has picked up . I just heard from 10 tonight till 12 tomorrow over 10 inches . That’s what was just forecasted by work weatherman. Is it true?

    1. They’re gonna need some help from the ocean.
      Wind not a big factor, just occasional gusts.

  36. Just found out the Med Center will have a delayed 12pm opening tomorrow. Depending upon conditions or if they end up cancelling I may actually work from home.

  37. When I read Boston schools were closed Tuesday I scratched my head. I could see tomorrow but let see how the storm plays out before deciding on whether school should be called for Tuesday.

  39. Thank you TK! I was surprised they cancelled Endicott for tomorrow as soon as they did! Because before they waited until the last minute! Maybe they finally got the memo…;) Now what’s all this buzz about Tuesday and cancellations? What do you think TK?

  40. Son just arrived from RI. He does not mind snow driving. Said it is bad and no one is able to keep up with it

  41. Just got a message from our VP, work is as scheduled tomorrow. He said he understands it will being snowing most of the day, but due to the forecasted “lower snowfall rates” than a typical winter storm, crews should be able to keep up and we will be open for business as usual.

  42. I will tell you I have no problem with closing schools on Tuesday. For those who don’t live in the city, I can assure you the roads will be a complete disaster. For example back streets in JP still have tons of snow on them and now add another 12-15 inches forget about it. The buses will struggle to get down some of those roads.

    Also if you drive through Mattapan, parts of Roxbury and Dorchester it’s evidant that poorer neighborhoods get plowed last. I was just driving through yesterday and some of the roads are unreal. These buses will never make it through those streets bc I can gtd. you that they won’t be plowed enough until at least Tuesday.

    1. Good comment, Hadi. One can say the same about Chinatown where I work. The back streets are barely plowed, and hard for children to get around on as they make their way to the bus stop on Kneeland Street.

      I think that the city should make its Tuesday decision on Monday evening. A delayed opening on Tuesday is what I think would be appropriate. But more importantly, I think the city’s obligation is to ensure that all roads in all neighborhoods are plowed, along with sidewalks, before schools can open.

  43. I may end up eating my earlier words about the coastal front and it having no chance at moving back westward a bit …..

    Marshfield winds have veered from 010 to 040 the last hour and a half and PTown now is at 070 and ……. Boston Harbor buoy got to 030, but is now back to 050.

  44. AceMaster, I don’t think your VP is making the right decision. I think it’s folly to go by snowfall rates per hour and lack of travel ban, etc … One needs to look at the situation in the context of what is already on the ground and sides of the roads. Suffice to say, the road conditions tomorrow will not be good. Aside from the safety factor, I think it’s inefficient to make people commute to and from work for hours and hours, when some could be working more efficiently from home. I realize that some may not have jobs that can be done from home, but I assume that many do.

    1. I agree in general Joshua. THIS is the consequence of underplaying the impact of a storm. I seem to be hearing a running theme with employers, including my own – “It’s not going to be bad at all.”

      REALLY?

      1. You’re right, DS.

        The ones who say it is not that bad would be right had we not had over 45 inches of snow in a 12 day span. But, given all the snow on the ground, sidewalks, roads, any accumulating snow will present problems.

    2. He’s been extremely conservative in his decisions since I’ve been working there. We all think he would have had the plant open during the blizzard if there wasnt a driving ban. We joke he uses this line in his phone messages all the time, “well, the parking lot is clear….”

    3. Joshua I agree. It is a perfect example of folks being incapable of regulating themselves which in turn requires big brother to step in.

  45. I don’t see a problem getting 12-15 more to give is around 18-20. We are really just starting the meat and potatoes of the storm. HRRR and other short range models have is picking up another 12 inches. Here is a tweet from Ryan M

    @RyanMaue: HRRR valid at 8 AM Monday. Simulated radar & temps show heavy snow. Also attached is 15 hr snowfall …Boston wins http://t.co/nxtq0Lv241

    2. But not a big deal… Let’s make everyone drive and take the T (which is operating wonderfully, by the way) to work… SIIIIGH

  46. So far the leader is the SOUTH shore. The North Shore band is very late to the party. Here in Woburn just light snow. We have barely been to moderate a few times. And the drying trend from the west is trying to eat away at the synoptic snow. Right now it’s all about the coastal front from the city to the South Shore.

  47. It’s interesting to think about how Boston is seeing a record amount of snow for such a short period of time, yet what is going on around here is like everyday snowfall for some sections of the Canadian Maritimes. It’s interesting to see the differences between regions that get this all the time and regions that get it only once in a great while.

    1. It’s about preparedness and budget I think. Cities like Buffalo and Syracuse? Walk in the park because it happens a lot. So they have the infrastructure to handle it. They also don’t have the population density that we have.

      2. It is the same as comparing an inch of snow down south to what we have or an earthquake in CA to one in MA. I totally agree DS

  49. Left the house at 5 p.m. here in North Reading and just returned at 10:20. Maybe 2 inches in the driveway and that is probably a stretch. Was shocked to have an email from our superintendent of schools (I am a school committee member) telling me that our schools will be closed tomorrow. It is hardly snowing here and unless it picks up, there will be a lot of mets and school superintendents with egg on their face tomorrow. Oh well, it’s a tough business — both mets and school superintendents. 🙂 It is cold though — 13 degrees.

    1. About 1.5 inch this evening at Woburn so far. Never more than light snow. Visibility here is about 3 miles.

      In fact there are NO stations in SNE reporting anything other than light snow. The heavy pockets are tucked into very small areas up to this point.

      1. Wondering how we will end up. Every storm this season seems to over perform I would be surprised if this one didn’t.

        1. This one won’t in most of the region, but very well may in a few locations, like the South Shore for example.

  52. New NAM takes the edge off the precip total (comparing the previous to the current for the time that is still ahead) and shifts the heaviest ever so slightly to the south.

  55. Off to bed. Measured 6.5″ so far. It’s deceiving out there, the flakes are so small it doesn’t look like it’s snowing all that much but it sure is accumulating. We’ll see what it looks like in the morning!

  56. Heading out to shovel. Temp still at 18 winds out of the NNE. Snowing pretty darn good still and vis between a 1/4 and 1/2 mile.

  59. It’s funny how what they are saying in the storm-related news stories doesn’t actually match the weather forecast…

  60. Just got in from shoveling…just did the front of the driveway (where the plows nailed me again after I shoveled) and the walkway from the street…not much real estate but still took about an hour.

    Moderate snow here right now with vis about 1/2 mile. Looks like the coastal front moved back to the east and south east slightly since I went out. Looks like (from a couple of measurements on the walkway) to be between 11 and 12 inches.

      1. What a difference 30 miles makes. That band is still strong over the northern part of Plymouth County

  61. Snow just got really light here – almost stopped. Lowest level of echoes on radar. Big contrast from region to region continues.

      1. It may last a while yet. The band aiming for the North Shore an hour ago went POOF.

        The band near the South Shore is there but shrinking a little. We’ll see that waver in intensity overnight.

        Still limited snow from the west coming in for the next couple hours anyway. We’ll see what it looks like by morning.

        We have a long way to go…

    1. I think they do, but some places are going to get under 4 inches tomorrow while others get a foot. 🙂

  65. Just popped a couple of Motrin…My arms and shoulders are feeling it…must be the cumulative effect.

  67. Woke up and took a peek…still nothing in Woburn worth noting. Maybe a few inches more and barely snowing. Long way to go but figured it would be more. Office has not closed as of now,

  68. The radar is really focused on the immediate Boston area and south of the city. I would expect Logan to come in close to 17-19 inches when all said and done.

  71. Newton still has that fine steady snow which picked up a little in intensity while I was brushing off the car just now. Looks like my area could still be seeing light snow for another 12 hours.

    On another note, beginning to wonder a little more about the Thursday event. I was hoping for a light event at most but maybe it’s more of a moderate event.

    2. 6z GFS is much closer than 00z run and you know the way things have trended this winter. I would not be surprised to see something like 48 or 6-10 more. Again this is for Thursday system.

  73. Just woke up and took a look outside. Still snowing moderately right now with vis around 1/2 mile. Temp at 27 so the coastal front is right in the area now (maybe slightly west of me). Looks like another 2-3 inches fell since around midnite.

    1. I think its going to be an interesting next 12-18 hrs for our area Keith …..

      Surface pressures slowly rising this morning in eastern Mass and Maine.

      In response, that coastal front is going to begin moving south and east some again which, I think, will focus the ocean enhancement right over us.

      Also some decent storm precip to our west heading our way too.

      1. Agreed Tom. I went back to bed for an hour but couldn’t sleep. Got up and now it’s snowing harder than around 6 am. Just checked and the Med Center is still planning on a delayed opening but I think I’ll work from home.

  74. We appear to have received about 3-4 inches of new wet snow overnight, for a total of 6-7 inches so far. (Sunday early am’s 3 inches melted and compacted to virtually nothing yesterday).

    Radar simulations on TV weathercasts are showing a snowband hanging on down here into early tomorrow morning.

  76. I agree with hadi in regards to boston snow . City is for sure going to finish with high totals . Is this still on for all day into tomorrow morning. Thanks

  78. Uh oh ……

    The trees are plastered with wet snow, which continues and there is some wind.

    This formula never has a good outcome. 🙁

    1. I see you are west of coastal front. Making a big difference with a a type and amounts. Logan comes in with numbers at 7 so let’s see what they have.

      1. Yup, and it’s gonna stay that way for this one. The radar is just weak. I’m already looking at the 500mb charts for the next one. Thank God I like winter storms or I’d go nuts with cabin fever.

  81. Snowing pretty good here, picked up another 3″ overnight to make the storm total so far around 9.” Game on for work, not looking forward to this drive even though it’s only about 4 miles, ugh

  84. Heading to train and got lots of errands to run, meeting at 11am, I’ll check back later, good day everyone, total so far here from yesterday and today 4.8 inches 🙂

    1. Don’t lybo because you might need it to land on later if you slip. 😉
      Your area will land right in the predicted range, btw. 🙂

      Be safe out there!

  85. I’m heading to Reading for about 6 hours then back home to shovel.

    I will be able to poke in on the blog occasionally via phone so I’ll do a more hard-core catch-up later this afternoon.

    Have a great day all! 😀

  87. Good morning. Ok, I know it was not advertised to be a heavy snow event, but rather
    a long duration event with varying intensities. Sorry, I’m just not impressed. Perhaps
    it is just the type of storm it is. Given that, it’s snowing decently here now. Other than a brief period last evening around 5PM, this is probably the hardest it has snowed
    the whole event.

    Radar displays have been ANEMIC for the most part, other than a few isolated bands.

    Frankly, I have this foreboding feeling that Thursday’s system may end up
    Over achieving. And Sunday? I dunno. Euro looks very threatening.

    Other than that, Not sure I can remember a stretch of SNOW like this.
    That part is MOST IMPRESSIVE!!!

    I also see that the CHARLIE HOLE is alive and well this morning. 😀

  89. Power outages definitely a possibility southshore points south and east …..

    We’re in that 28-34F zone with snow.

    The trees probably have an amount of snow on them that they can handle without too many problems.

    Question becomes ….

    How much more snow, what happens with the coastal front (temperature) and does the wind increase any further …….

  90. After getting up at 6 I went back to sleep for an hour or so but really couldn’t sleep. Up now and just looked outside again…Incredible! I’d say overall at least 15-16 inches and snowing hard again. We are on the east side of the front (altho I believe it’s actually right overhead). Temp is 29 and winds are NNE. Snow still fairly fluffy but getting wetter. Plows and sanders are out but that’s about it (no other traffic). Heard the commuter train slowly going by a short while ago but the earlier run didn’t happen.

  91. I am impressed so far, we knew this wasn’t going to be a heavy snow but rather long duration light to moderate. So I am happy with the way numbers are coming in. North Weymouth coming in at 19.3 from a trained spotter. Would not surprise me to see them at 30 when all said and done.

    1. You’re more easily impressed than I. 😀

      Re: Weymouth
      With certain ocean banding that area of the South Shore often does well.
      Braintree, Weymouth, Rockland, Norwell, Hanover, even Hingham sometimes.
      And areas surrounding that.

      Guidance MISSED that.

      1. North Weymouth is about a mile or two just NW of me and I can confirm (at least estimating this morning) those numbers.

        A friend of mine in Farmington CT (just west of Hartford) says he got 6-8 inches overnight.

  92. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 17s18 seconds ago
    For those inquiring, Thursday snow looks plowable and also monitoring potential for Sunday. The never-ending pattern. #every3days

  93. Although it is difficult to pick up, I “think” Under breaks from synoptic snow, I can
    see Ocean Bands moving in from the NE. Anyone else see that. 😀

    1. Just south of Boston I think I do. Can’t tell on the North Shore.

      Quite an interesting storm. Pretty much as advertised though. Not impressive in terms of intensity, but when it snows for this long it adds up. It’ll be interesting to see the North Shore vs. South Shore totals. Looks like the surprise of the storm may be the South Shore getting the jackpot from ocean enhancement.

  97. We’re sort of making headlines overseas, but not nearly as much as we should: Vague references to “a lot of snow in the Northeast of America.” International media is so NYC-focused that anything that happens north of NYC (unless it’s a disaster) rarely if ever gets reported. I do understand NYC is more influential and larger than Boston. But, there’s more to the U.S than NYC, LA, and Washington DC.

    I think I know a partial solution to the problem. We need to report our snowfall and snow-pack in centimeters. Splash these numbers across the front covers of our newspapers, websites, TVs. That will grab attention. It’s much more impressive to say 30 cm instead of a “foot” (what the hell’s a foot, a European will ask) or 12 inches (what’s an inch, a Japanese will ask). And it’s certainly far more impressive to say Boston’s had close to 150 centimeters of snow in a two-week span rather than 58 inches.

  98. One part of the NWS forecast I never could figure out – and turns out to be wrong – was the map of projected snow-fall which had towns like Hingham and Cohasset getting much less than, say, Newton. That did NOT make sense yesterday before the snow really began to fall and does not make sense today, of course. I looked at the map yesterday and thought, that looks like there is a mix or rain line that will cut down totals on the South Shore. However, given the temperature profile, wind direction, etc … that did not make sense.

  99. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 7m7 minutes ago Scituate, MA
    Technically not a Nor’easter
    30F, NE 30 mph, 13′ Surf, S+
    RT @HumarockBeach Lost power in Humarock Scituate at 7:44am

  100. This storm is behaving exactly as advertised. Many more hours and inches of light to moderate snow to come.

  101. Made it into work, roads weren’t nearly as bad as i thought and i use all back roads. I’d say about 75% of the plant made it in so far. I also mis-spoke about snow total here so far, i measured on the back porch earlier with 9″ but then the untouched driveway and only got 7,” back porch might have had some drifts from the roof, I’m going with 7″ but snowing at a good clip and it will pile up throughout the day.

  102. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    Boston South Shore getting hammered! N winds at BOS; ENE at PYM. Convergence is very strong and Marshfield now down to 1/4 mile visibility.

    2. That’s the only surprise to this storm that axis of heaviest precip will be focused on the south shore. What a difference 20 miles makes.

    1. Concur. Really piling up.
      At this rate, Boston will crack 20 inches for sure.

      As soon as we cross 15 if not already, it will be the first season EVER
      that Boston had 3 storms in excess of 15 inches! Truly unheard of around
      these parts.

  105. On this day in 1870, President Grant signed a measure in Wash., D.C. establishing what would become the National Weather Service.
    (accuweather.com)

  106. This is wild. Moderate to heavy snow here. Snow is wetter now but still blowing around. Temp between 29 and 30. Just got a clear view of my walkway and the plows since last night have thrown a snow bank between 4 and 5 feet at the end of the walkway…That’s going to take quite a while to dig out from. Question is where to put as the surrounding banks are 6-8 feet high.

  108. Another big storm that produced in boston, man oh man. It’s just been non stop moderate snow that’s piling up quickly. I’m over 24hrs now on the job with another probably to go. Stay safe.

    2. Take it easy, John. Son said driving into Boston was slow this am but no cars when he went so that made up for it.

  110. Look at the Wundermap to accurately place the Coastal Front.
    And this is WHY I believe Boston is currently getting hammered.

    The focus of convergence is at least partially right over boston.

    Wind North. Just to the South Wind is NE to ENE farther South.
    Arctice air firmly entrenched. BOOM!!! Shitloads of LIFT and moisture!
    Recipe for tons of snow, BUFFALO Style.

  111. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 21s22 seconds ago
    Snow water equivalent will surpass 4″ today for much of the area. That’s getting into the danger zone for roofs.

  113. That heavy ban for sure is in the longwood medical area. Very heavy now with low visibility. Snow blowing everywhere.

  115. Just heard that communities are being allowed to put snow in the Merrimack River as well as the ocean….. That’s bad.

    1. Yep…looking at Wundermap shows the same. Still about 3-4 miles west of me. Moderate snow here right now and 29 degrees. Being on the east side is giving us a little break right now I think.

      1. The other thing I’m seeing is that on the east side of the front the winds are stronger and gusty. So even while the snow on this side may be a little lighter the wind is really pushing it around (even with a somewhat wetter snow).

  118. Did someone mention SNOWMAGEDDON on these pages.

    Well, I think we are there!!! and MORE to come!!

    I can’t even begin to think what would happen IF we were to get
    the Thursday and Sunday events!!! CALAMITY!!!
    DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!!!!!!

  121. By looking at the latest GFS run to me that low looks to strengthen a little quicker and now puts all of SNE in play for a moderate snowfall 5-10 inches where yesterday that was far less snow forecasted for western areas of SNE.
    I am not jumping on one model run but rather want to see if that trend continues.
    Meanwhile still got to get through this one.

    1. 12z NAM ………. 84 hrs out ……….. is hinting at coastal redevelopment and the simulated radar shows precip blossoming south of New England.

      The way the NAM handled this last system, if its hinting at something this far out, I can only imagine what that could turn into.

  122. JJ, how much snow do you have in Watertown? It looked like you were under a fairly intense band of 1-2″ snows earlier. I have a storm total of about 6″ in Coventry so far. So far the storm is generally behaving as expected here though I was surprised to see the heavier snow bands set up overnight and this morning closer to the shoreline.

    1. Hi Mark… I was under that band that has pushed east. That was the hardest the snow has fallen since it began on Saturday.
      Its snowing pretty close to a moderate clip right now. I am noticing a whole just to the west of me so might get into that but
      still more snow out across NY and PA that has to push in here.
      With everything since Saturday there is close to 5 inches out there. I think the forecast of 6-12 inches is going to work out although looks like I will be closer to low end of total.

      1. Interesting, I thought maybe you would have more than me based on radar. I think I will end up in the 8-10″ range when all said and done. Don’t think the state will see many 10″+ totals. Many of the holes on the radar to the west I have noticed are filling in but it’s mostly lighter snow now.

    1. If the 12z NAM radar reflectivity projection has any truth to it, moderate to heavy snows continue in that general bullseye area into the evening.

      In a way, I wish the synotic snow would move out so we could see if and where there are any ocean bands.

  124. Tree across the street ….

    Its fairly young and small ….

    Its branches are curled down and the lower branches are reaching down to the level of the snow.

  125. Guess I am happy that North Reading is not in the jackpot area for this Storm, but we now have received 11 inches since Saturday night. We got 5 in the first burst and 6 since 6 p.m. Last night. And, looking at the snow right now, 4-6 inches more probably not out of the question. So as of right now, we have had 57 inches of snow here in two weeks. 17 degrees here right now. Not a disaster, but enough is enough. Mother Nature, please have mercy on us the rest of this week.

    1. Definitely a bit slower and steadier here in Andover as well, without any real heavy bands so far… Same kind of numbers…

      Tom

  126. Tom I’ve been Busy with work projects I have to complete from home.

    Just looked at 12Z NAM at 84 hours.

    There isn’t a HINT of a coastal redevelopment. It is there and Undergoing
    Explosive development. The simulated radar at that point is ALREADY
    impressive!

    Norton, “I’M ASCARED!”

    1. Hope the projects are going well OS ! I got some grading done earlier, so, I can hand back tests, whenever it is we have school again …….

      Whats ominous in all of this is ….

      For all that we have been through the last 2+ weeks,

      The opportunity is there for the strongest east coast storm mid month if it all comes together right, probably followed by the coldest air of the season.

  128. This winter is such a dud. Reminds me of 2011-2012. No persistent cold. Almost no snow. Just mild rainstorms. Doesn’t even look or feel like winter out there …… Yes, that was me 4 weeks ago, posting such nonsense on these pages. Good thing my day job doesn’t involve meteorology.

  129. A fine, thick moderate to heavy snow is falling.

    Its gotten dark.

    The radar looks as impressive as its looked during the whole duration of this event.

  130. My favorite post of the day goes to OS citing the robot from Lost in Space (circa 1960’s), that line never gets old.. “danger Will Robinson..”

  131. A lot of people were saying the same thing winter of 12-13 then we had the blizzard which was winding down on this date two years ago and that changed everything. Boston ended up with over 60 inches of snow that winter.
    4 out of 5 winters so far this decade above normal snowfall for Boston.

  132. Front End Loader just cleared our dead end street. Mountain of snow piled at the end
    of the street infringing on my front walk!!!

  133. Jim Cantore mentioned on TWC this morning that Boston has now broken its 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 days records for most snowfall in those periods of time. Incredible. I have received 44″ of snow here in Northern Ct in the past 16 days and have a two foot base on the ground yet that seems lame in comparison to what most of you have gotten in eastern MA. If long range GFS is correct this will end up a top 5 snowiest winter in Boston for sure.

    2. People I was talking to were saying the snow banks are higher but it could be worse like what Boston is dealing with.
      These snow banks at least where I live right now are no where near what it looked like after the blizzard of 2013 or
      that six week stretch we had in winter 2010-11.

  135. Woburn: Still nothing impressive and I am fine with that. Very light snow since I’ve woken up…maybe 4″ on the ground since I cleaned yesterday in certain spots (not an official measurement at all). I know we have a way to go but hoping it stays this way. Funny it got REALLY bright here in the last 30 minutes or so.

  136. The leeward side of my porch roof has 6’+ of snow on it. Been here 11 years and that’s never happened. Think I’d better clear it.

  137. very fine light snow, you can tell that it is mainly ocean effect coming from the east, not accumulating at the moment

    1. i see that south of the pike is getting alot of green echo’s but then there is also alot of green echos to the west.

      1. Its nuts down here ….. It was brighter earlier, but no longer … And we are accumulating at 1″ per hour or more ….

        Crazy, crazy, crazy !!!

  138. The trend has been to really intensify the southern piece of the current system and have a pretty intense system out in the open ocean.

    The 12z GFS is doing this as well ….

    Perhaps that would make the clipper have a harder time developing into its own strong system with that other system not too far to its east and southeast ????

  139. WeatherWiz: Noticed it getting bright about 30-45 minutes ago in Boston, too. Sun wanted to make a cameo appearance. That brightness is no longer. Clouds and more snow won out.

  140. I’m going out on a limb, but I think it’s safe to say that the pattern we’re in will change by July 4th. In fact, I will make a bold claim: July 4, 2015 will not feature snow of any kind, including ocean effect.

  146. Another bold conjecture, though unverifiable at this time: The first two weeks of November will be crowded in the maternity wards of Boston area hospitals, with Juno, Linus, and Marcus popular boys’ names.

  147. I’m not as confident as TK about a light – moderate event on Thursday. I think the impact of an ocean storm could be far greater on southern new England with significant snow accumulations once again!!!

  150. I, for one, am just listening to TK on Thurs and weekend storms…..his predictions work very well considering what we have.

    1. Not knocking TK. He does an excellent job. Just not as confident about a light-moderate snow event for Thursday. I think impacts could be much greater and it is important that we are prepared for that considering what we’ve been through thus far.

      1. Fair enough. I’ll still stick with TK but doubt there is anyone who is not prepared for more and if he/she is not, he/she never will be 🙂

    1. For now. And at this point, BEST to keep it that way.
      That one would be catastrophic. Thursday’s WILL be bad enough.
      AND that is trending STRONGER still.

    2. Dave Epstein 2 minutes ago
      Very heavy snow from Boston south right now. Hold off on travel until these bands pass. 2-3″/hr

  157. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 3m3 minutes ago
    We’re going to need more space. Storm threat for Thursday night increasing. Sorry, I don’t like it anymore either.

    1. Ryan ‏@RyanMaue 41s41 seconds ago
      GFS rapidly develops Nor’easter Thurs-Fri off New England coast. Too close for comfort #blizzard potential

  158. Just came in from snow blowing and it’s just puking snow. Easily and inch an hour , I couldn’t keep up with it.

  159. I think i saw rumblings of talk yesterday on here of hitting 100″ in boston for the season. Lets say after this storm boston has 70″ for the season. If Thursday’s storm materializes and drops another foot theres a really good shot

    1. Thinking the same thing. Because of the slow start to this snow season we’re not yet in the 1995-1996 discussion (I believe Logan reported 108 inches). But, if Thursday materializes, say, a foot or more of snow in Boston, we’ll definitely be headed towards 1995-1996 territory, as our veritable snow blitz continues.

  160. The snow piles and snow banks here in Quincy are the highest I’ve seen on the 21 years we’ve lived here. As we wrapped up shovelling (2 people, 2 hours, a one car driveway, pathways to the front and back doors), the snow started coming down much harder. I cycled back and cleared the driveway and back steps about 3 additional times. If we decide to go somewhere in the car, we’re going to need to shovel again. You could clear continuously, it’s coming down that fast.

    Looking forward to spring!

    1. I’m not a spring person, but I’m with you, Amy: For the first time in many winters I look forward to a spring day! I still love winter, but wouldn’t mind a 60 degree, carefree day in which the birds are out singing away, the flowers are ready to burst forth in all kinds of colors, and the rowers are back on the Charles.

  161. From NWS

    QUITE A MESOSCALE SNOW EVENT IN PROGRESS ACROSS E COASTAL MA NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF BOS WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE COASTAL FRONT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST ACROSS SE MA BUT STILL LOCKED IN BETWEEN OWD AND GHG. NOTE ENE WINDS AT BOS BUOY AND GHG WITH NNW AT BOS AND OWD. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FROM BOS TO THE SOUTH SHORE.

    1. It is an absolute snow blitz here in the south end.

      PS – I went into the office this morning. My boss ended up calling in. I, and everyone else that had already made it in promptly went home. It was a real task to find a parking spot again….

      1. SNOW BLITZ
        I like that we’ll have to expand our list. We currently have

        Snow Blitz
        Snozilla
        Snowmageddon

        Any others I forgot?

  164. TRULY AMAZING OUT THERE.

    I wonder IF there is any analysis or computer program working with
    radars that can determine HOW MUCH of this SNOW is OCEAN EFFECT
    and how much is SYNOPTIC. It would make for a fascinating study.

    1. Guilty as charged. I’m wearing my scarlet letter A. For being an Ass for writing off winter so prematurely.

  166. Wow, it feels strange not being in the jackpot of the storm for once! First part of the storm (saturday night) brought 4 inches, second (current) part so far 8.5 inches but still falling.

  167. Puling snow here again too….I’m sitting here perplexed about where to put the snow when I shovel. A lot will go back out to the other side of the street where there is nothing but open space and then the commuter rail bridge. Easily 22 inches or better right now from this event.

    Have the scanner on listening to all the action.

    1. Heard a conversation on one of the Public Safety frequencies between dispatch and the DPW Commish….The Commish seemed pissed as a bunch of private contractors have let them down (his words)…not responding to emails, phone calls, etc.

      1. From late Saturday night Vicki. Just a guess at this point but probably a pretty good based on a couple recent measurements and other local obs. Starting to drift more here now.

        Here are 1156 snowfall reports from the NWS and the times taken.

        NORTH WEYMOUTH 19.8 653 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
        SOUTH WEYMOUTH 18.0 1043 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
        WEYMOUTH 18.0 1045 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
        MILTON 17.8 1021 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER
        3 SSW MILTON 17.8 1000 AM 2/09 BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY
        QUINCY 17.2 949 AM 2/09 NONE
        NORWELL 21.3 1053 AM 2/09 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
        ROCKLAND 20.0 1031 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO
        HINGHAM 16.0 814 AM 2/09 NONE

        1. The Hingham # is from an obs closer to Cohasset and Hull where I think the snow was a little wetter for a time. Plus it was taken at 8am. I’m sure it’s probably up to around 19 or 20 there now.

  172. I don’t know why, but I’m actually shocked by how HARD it has been snowing and for so LONG today. I guess I wasn’t expecting it to live up to expectations.

  178. One of the woman morning anchors on WHDH said she has a friend (or perhaps relative) in Buffalo. That person contacted her to sympathize and said she was sorry to hear what is going on here.

    When Buffalo sympathizes, you know you have something big

  179. Meteorologist Gil Simmons who does not hype things said I am getting a little more concerned about midday Thursday into Friday as pieces of energy are coming together.

      2. It’s freaking crazy here…I think you guys are getting a little worse there right now. Here it’s the wind that’s adding to it all. Gusts up to 30 at times. Looks like the coastal front is still sitting where it was earlier and wavering back and forth a bit. Still about 4 miles or less to my west.

  181. Another roof just collapsed somewhere in the city! Also, there’s been multiple reports of wires down due to car accidents! If only folks would stay off the roads, especially those who have absolutely no clue how to drive in the snow!

    1. Yep..heard about the roof collapse on the scanner but the scanner jumped to the next frequency during a break so I didn’t get much. Did hear about multiple accidents down here and wires down.

  182. Can’t say for sure because I can’t see precip maps yet, but the 12z UKMET also looked impressive for Thursday/Friday. CMC a bit later and further east developing, but still several inches for eastern areas. I suspect the Euro will be interesting. This one may have blizzard potential. Not necessarily huge snow totals, but it may meet the criteria in spots because of the rapid deepening of the storm leading to strong winds.

  183. Son in law headed out to shovel our big roof. It is far too worrisome and will also start leaking from the ice dams. It is about a 4-5 hour job.

    1. Vicki….I didn’t see your post about the Bridgewater roof collapse until a bunch more comments were added. It was a warehouse, not residential.

  184. In Quincy at work. Snowing very hard right now. Visibility is less than 1/4 of a mile. Made it from North Attleboro to Quincy in about an hour and got here at 10:30, roads were the worst I have seen them in any of the storms this year. Stay home if you can.

  185. I know we haven’t even finished with this round of snow yet but I have a question about Thursday. I am part of our emergency management team here at the bank and we have some big testing going on at the end of the week. We need to have employees in our tech center in Plymouth to perform these tests and we are looking at possibly putting them up in a hotel nearby. I know nothing is every truly etched in stone with the weather but when do you think a forecast could be semi nailed down? Of course I have told all the big wigs at the bank that I have the best meterologists right in my back pocket so we are all relying on you. 🙂

  187. From what i could decipher from the 12Z euro, the thurs/fri system stays offshore but its hard to tell with the 24hr increments

    1. With the wind it’s near blizzard conditions “at times”.

      I have to go out shortly and tackle that 6 ft monster in front of the house.

      1. TK gave his guestimates and they were lower.

        JR said both were massive storms but at the moment look to be further east so we (hopefully) won’t have full impact.

        I’m counting on that too.

        SIL just came in from about 90 minutes and is halfway through roof. He is to the worst part where the snow was blown/drifted and there are easily 3-4 foot areas of snow there.

  192. Yep, swing and a miss Thursday on the Euro. Going to be a forecast headache. Basically the Euro vs. the field. We’ve seen the Euro win before in those situations. It’s interesting because this winter usually the Euro has been the one to show storms when the others don’t.

    1. Oh my God. This is unreal. Take a look at the Albany radar. I’m as suing that will hold together and still plow through here.

      You know damn well one of the next two will get us. Maybe both!

      I’m at “only” 12″ right now. A dusting it seems of late. What a nightmare it has to be getting around Boston.

  197. 12Z ECMWF deliver 0.5-1.0 West to East on Sunday. 0.8 at Logan.

    I laughed at my 6-19″ range on Friday because it was so wildly varied but that is what this is going to to turn out to be. Some places in the region are going to be not much more than 6″ and there are going to be places that are going to be a foot to foot and half more than that not too far away.

    The thing that is making this storm so tough for people is the maximum snow is taking place in areas that are inundated with snow already, with dense population grids, and are centers of commerce. Believe me this is far easier to deal with in Central VT or Northern Maine.

    1. Essentially they flip flop days for significant systems.

      ECMWF gives about a .10 at Boston on Thursday and 0.8 on Sunday. GFS is the reverse of that at Boston.

      1. I think for everyone’s sanity and at least the opportunity to catch up a bit, I would prefer that Sunday be the day, also I have had that day on the calendar as a potential hit day for a while. However at this time, I think Sunday as better chance at South and East while the Thursday system could be a sneaky snow dropper.

  199. Boss told us to go home. I just got done cleaning off my car, solid 4″ from 8am till now, that’s about 4″ in 6 hrs for an average rate of 2/3″ per hour. It looked like it was snowing harder than that.

      1. No doctoring of numbers here :). I always double check to make sure I am screwing anything up. It’s also good to know what other areas around me have and then I know if I am not making a mistake.

        1. I don’t think you are doctoring numbers. It is just snow. Who has time for that kind of foolishness in their life??

  201. Well looks my 70″ prediction won’t hold up. I am taking bets that O.S. Will win this year with over 100″

  202. Snowing hard in S. Weymouth and closing in on 24 inches since Saturday. It is “Snowfinity” here for sure! Be well, be safe and most of all remember you were here. God Bless.

  204. 13″ of 32F, heavy ….. Wet snow …..

    Snowing heavily.

    Thats a legitimate 1.3 inches of melted in eastern Marshfield.

    I can see why thats probably translating to 24+ west of the front in the colder air.

    Incredible snow depth, I dont know how to begin to describe it.

  205. Boston Mayor Walsh will have an update at 3:00 pm.

    Gov. Baker not pleased at all with the MBTA today. I can’t imagine why. 😉

    1. He should be mad. It’s a disgrace whats going on there and also how there money has been handled.

      2. What is the T supposed to do? The equipment they have is ancient. You want better T service, then be prepared to pay more in taxes. That’s the only way it can be fixed.

  206. So I just got in from shoveling the 10 ft walkway and the small part of the sidewalk and street (another 5 ft or so) that had been plowed in with almost 6 ft of hard packed snow. Then two plows came by…the first one (town plow) lifted his blade and moved out a little (thank you) and second one (non town plow) moved in closer and threw back two freaking feet of snow. I called him every stinking name in the book (his window was open too). Oh well.

    When I got out there I measured the walkway in 3 different spots. averaged out to be 15 inches or so of new snow since 11 pm last night. At 11 pm I had around 10 or 11 inches of new snow. So roughly 25 or 26 inches of new stuff. Crazy…still coming down moderately to heavy here.

    On top of it all I messed up elbow something fierce. Hoping it’s just a little inflamed and some Motrin will help.

    Haven’t even attempted the driveway yet.

    2. Good luck, Keith.

      The plow driver here – and we have far, far less than you – actually came into our driveway and scooped some out of the end. What a jerk the second driver was in your case.

    3. Thanks guys…took some Motrin..making some Hot Chocolate and going down a couple of donuts 🙂

  207. Its unbelivable from what you guys are saying the pictures I am looking at on television and posts here on the blog.
    I have a feeling a lot of people are rooting for Misses with the next two snow threats.

  208. I’m done with this. Really hoping Thurs and Sunday are low impact. Going to Florida on Sat. Hoping to come home to a driveway that doesn’t need snow blowing and to slightly smaller drifts of snow on the roof.

  210. 1 comment, 1 concern

    Concern : every time I see a simulated radar on TV, a snowband is still going on the south shore until 3 AM !! 12 more hours ……. Really …..

    Comment : you hear snow emergency used …… It really is a snow emergency. The width of the roads are dangerous, you cant see around corners, hydrants are covered ….. I just hope people in general have a lot of patience the next day or two.

    1. Tom, sadly, I find that too many drivers are short of patience when they need it most. It is horrendously dangerous out there.

  211. 1. 107.6″ = 1995-96
    2. 96.3″ = 1993-94
    3. 89.2″ = 1947-48
    4. 86.6″ = 2004-05
    5. 85.1″ = 1977-78
    6. 83.9″ = 1992-93
    7. 81.0″ = 2010-11
    8. 79.2″ = 1915-16
    9. 73.4″ = 1919-20
    10.72.9″ = 1903-04

  213. TK not sure if you are out there or not…when do you think this will stop for us? Looks like there is a big gap coming but I want to avoid cleaning twice today…especially since I cleaned last night. Thanks!

    1. The majority of the snow ends from west to east over the next two hours. Exception: The South Shore. That snow hangs tough until mid to late evening.

      1. Thanks. Is this earlier than what I heard which was after midnight or even early tomorrow? Any sense as to how much might still fall between the next few hours and the morning in my area?

  214. Mayor Walsh has imposed a travel ban for the city of Boston for tomorrow!

    As for schools, they will be closed tomorrow and “may” be closed for the rest of the week. The mayor will make a decision on the latter tomorrow. From what I can tell, school vacation next week will remain as scheduled. I do wonder though, how those days will be made up.

    UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. I just spoke with the Mayor’s hotline and was told that there is NO travel ban tomorrow. The Mayor would “like” people to work from home, if possible.

  215. Tons of car accidents being reported on the scanner. One was a tractor trailer jackknifed on what I assume is Rt 3a in Scituate (it was Scituate PD reporting it).

  217. They could take days away from April vacation to makeup the time. That happened to me back in the 95-96 winter where we lost two days of April break.
    After that winter a lot of schools in CT stopped a week off in February and went to a long 4 day weekend.

  218. The 95-96 school year felt forever me going to school to June 30th and losing two days of April vacation. Those two school days in April we did work in the morning then once we got in from recess the teacher would show us a movie since they felt bad we lost two days of vacation.

    1. Funny thing is that in 1996 when Framingham went until June 27 the kids basically did nothing the last week.

  220. Just flurries now in northern CT. I have received 8.5″ here – accumulating snow appears to be done.

    Radar is really breaking up in central MA as well, the worst of it appears to be over from Boston N and W. The area of snow (back edge) in eastern NY and the Berkshires has also diminished considerably as it has tried to move east.

    1. The snow over Albany never makes it into eastern MA. Much of the synoptic snow is fizzling out. The ocean enhanced snow will hold on a little while longer over the south shore as they receive an additional few inches.

    1. Most of the synoptic snow is ending. We still will be dealing with ocean effect snows from the city of Boston southward with the main focus over the south shore communities. Most communities see an additional inch or two before it shuts down. However, the south shore communities could see an additional 2-5 inches.

    2. Same here in North Reading. Hopefully that’s it. Approximately 14 inches for us over the two-plus days, with a total of 60 or so inches in the last 13 days. Unreal. Time to start cleaning up!

  222. Just did clean up # 1. It’s tough get that snow up to 10 feet so the snow
    doesn’t coming rolling back down!!!

    I won’t report a measurement because I waited way too long and I’m sure several inches were lost to compaction.

    ONLY snowing lightly here.

    I will say one thing: There’s a SHITLOAD of SNOW out there.
    INSANITY!!!

    Mayor urged all business to have their employees work from home.

    Smells like another day off tomorrow.

    1. We can laugh and say these totals aren’t possible but the Euro showed this 10 days ago and it verified.

  226. There is going to be no melting so even if one of those snow threats materializes late week or Sunday your going to add to an already big snow depth across the region.

  227. What I am about to tell you is going to sound totally fabricated. I assure you it is not.

    I was out walking the dogs, and one of them pulled over to do their business. When I went to pick it up I realized….I was picking it up off of the top of a CAR. The ground we were walking on was the same level as the top of a buried car.

    Also, my dog sh*t on someones car….OOPS!

    1. Oh boy ……

      Not surprised.

      I’ll happily give up April vacation in exchange for telling me the rest of the week is a lost cause, keeping the Feb break and I will drive my way out of New England starting tomorrow. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Seriously though, its not good and its not about how late we go in June. I just feel so bad for students as relates to the flow of learning. Its really hard to build topics with this much missed time.

  229. Wow…just got a quick burst of more moderate snow with a gust of wind that must have close to 30-35 mph….everything went white for about 20 seconds.

    1. Oh yeah, it picked up again here too.

      That coastal front is still there and with any kind of minimal lift, we are susceptible to bursts of snow well into the night.

      1. If the NAM simulated radar is in the ballpark, the last of the snow ends around 7am in Hingham and Marshfield.

        1. Wow….I’ll be shoveling all day tomorrow. My wife is out in the driveway now shoveling around the car. I’ll do the end where the plows have been later. Then I’m sure another round tomorrow. I also want to tackle the back deck and the back roof over the kitchen area (much flatter than the rest of the house (a cape).

  230. Imagine if that moisture from the southern stream got up here later tonight and formed a big nor’easter??? WOW!!

        1. Umm GULP! That’s ANOTHER 16-18 inches
          for the area. C’MON this is NOT possible
          NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT!!! GO AWAY!!!!

    2. What did the 18z NAM show for precip amounts for Thursday’s event? Not that it matters but I’m curious.

        1. This is absolutely amazing. I didn’t have a good feeling about Thursday from the start and I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday.

          Thursday will NOT be a light-moderate event. Mark my words. That southern jet wants to buckle.

          1. I’m with you totally on Thursday/Friday.
            I am not as convinced on Sunday, BUT am very very concerned. Euro has it BIG time!
            The way the GFS has been going, would be more
            sure IF it was on it’s radar.

    1. On a broad scale you were spot on with this forecast. It’s impossible to pinpoint where the mesoscale banding will occur. Who would have known that the South Shore would see 30+ inches???

      However, my concern for Thursday is rapidly growing as is my confidence on a large scale event for SNE.

      1. Even NWS, who has been spectacular for this stretch, had to adjust UP! Who would have thought!

  234. Every run of the GFS increases snow amounts for SNE. Now my area close to a foot with that run. Yesterday 12z run showed only 2 3 inches. Will see what the 0z runs say. I don’t see a miss with this one.

  235. All guidance initially under-forecast the intensity of the southern low pressure area of the developing couplet out in the ocean as this thing moves away.

    That has a DIRECT IMPACT on the Thursday/Friday event, and it is not good.

    Too early to say what happens on Sunday even though this far out odds favor a system a little further east. But a couple models having a big hit have my attention on that too.

    When you are in the zone, you are IN THE ZONE.

    The odd thing about this, is that it is only odd in the sense that this particular weather pattern only happens once in a very very long time, and was probably responsible for February 1969 and some of the great snows of the 1600s and 1700s. That is, the direct connection, almost like a weather worm hole, of Arctic air coming from Siberia to Greenland to eastern Canada to New England with this elongated thing just basically stuck there and clipper dropping into the base that hangs over New England and going KABOOM, or the occasional set up like the one now with the prolonged event.

    I will be working on a new blog soon.

    1. I’ve heard it compared to the 1717 event. I just can’t believe this type of pattern is possible. For the last few years I always considered January 2011 the ultimate snowy winter pattern. This blows that and everything else out of the water.

    2. GFS has been good, but not perfect. Enough guidance has the hit on that one for us to keep paying attention, real close attention.

      I’m going to go for a short but hard hit Thursday night/Friday morning and then a side-swipe by a meteorological black hole on Sunday.

  237. I know I remainin the minority, but snow days shouldn’t have to be made up at all. I don’t ask for school to be closed, and my kids should not have to pay for the administration’s decisions. If any days off are to be “cancelled,” they should start with the 3 “professional days” that remain for the year. I am told those cant be taken away due to union issues.

    1. A lot of places didn’t make them up in 1978. There was some special permission granted. Perhaps that can be arranged again with maybe some extra work packets (within reason) prepared for the students.

      If all worked together it could be done.

      1. I understand the desire to fulfill the 180 day rule, but when they cancel vacations, etc., half the kids don’t go in anyway, so it becomes pointless.

  239. grrrrrrrr……..bring it on mother nature! I’m going shirtless for the next one while snow blowing! I might even paint my chest with a snowman or something!

    Can you tell I don’t have to drive to Boston.

  241. My friend and former coworker, Scott (not the one that posts here), saw the 18z GFS and has decided to rename the model.

    The GFS is now known as the AYFKM model. (You can figure it out). 🙂

  242. Snowing very hard again here in Hingham. Another inch or so in the last 45 minutes. Just got in from shoveling again. My wife was shoveling the inner part of the driveway out when a woman and her son who live near us stopped and helped us. Her son is going to BC High and has community service to do and she thought this would a perfect time to perform some of that service. Very nice and it makes up for the plow driver earlier.

    Coastal front is right near me…temp has dropped to 27.

    1. Mark what did you get for snow total. Got close to 9 inches here.
      The snow depth in my front yard is foot in half and some spots just over two feet.

  245. I’m not very familiar getting into Boston on a daily basis …..

    With the MBTA shutting down and Mayor Walsh asking for now driving in the city, in all seriousness, if one needs to get into Boston tomorrow for work or say a medical appointment, how are they going to do that ?

      1. Oh, ok …..

        I was watching ch 7 and they had some live shots of 2 different roads in Boston and they opening couldnt have been more than 4 feet wide.

  248. I got little to add but more snow. This is getting to a level of absurdity. There is no short-term impact anymore. You are going to see companies with horrible February financials. There will be people who lose jobs due to lack of manufacturing, lack of shipping, lack of sales. Yes, there will be a rebound, but financial managers will need to even out revenue declines, with expense cuts.

    I feel bad because you just can’t go locally high enough in these storms and the highest impact regions are the centers of commerce for our area. Trained, schooled, responsible forecasters really struggle in these situations as these patterns are so unique.

    I hope to god I see no one cheering these next two storms on. There is nothing to be gained by these storms but more misery and economic hardship. I think Thursday is short duration but potentially heavy precip hit.

    I know I was really keyed on a 15 day storm train, but I envisioned nothing like this and not this cold either.

    My next concern is when this pattern changes. If it holds true to form it will come with an extreme under-forecasted U-Turn, that could lead to a new set of problems.

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