You’re Not Dreaming

390 Comments

6:32PM

For this blog entry, I’ll keep it simple and short. Whether you love snow or loathe it, you are probably worn out from the insanity of what Nature has thrown at many of us in southern New England since January 24. And yes, it’s only been 2 1/2 weeks, and no, you’re not dreaming. This weather pattern may very well be similar to some of the ones that brought the “great snows” to the natives of the land and the early settlers from across the ocean in the 1600s, and again in the following century, but we can’t be 100% sure because we only have limited hand written accounts by a few people long since departed. We don’t have any satellite data or widespread observational data to examine, only what was written about these events. But another way to describe this pattern is basically the Winter pattern of Labrador, Canada, displaced several hundred miles to the south. We know that such a thing is possible, though rare, in the atmosphere. But here it is.

The only thing really left to say about the just-about-to-end long-duration event is that it performed almost as expected, with the surprises being the South Shore ocean-snow zone setting up early in the event and being heavier than expected. We did expect the ocean-effect bands near the coast, however. But honestly, there will be some amounts above what I was envisioning when I said “8-16 inches with pockets of heavier…” and in places that I thought would be closer to the top of that 8-16 range. Incredible.

So just a quick look at what’s coming up. The same pattern continues. There is no doubt about that. And there are 2 more storm threats, Thursday to early Friday, and sometime over the weekend, likely Sunday. I don’t need to remind you that the further away the event, the less confidence there is forecasting it, so here is my best guess which will be fine-tuned with time. The current system exits by early Tuesday and a break lasts through Wednesday. The next storm, a clipper system, drops into the trough over the Northeast on Thursday and explodes offshore. How close this happens dictates the outcome, and right now it looks like eastern portions of MA and NH stand the greatest chance of heavy snow and strong wind developing on Thursday and ending by early Friday. Very cold air follows this storm, which will include lots of blowing snow where it falls. Another storm threat exists around Sunday, with medium range guidance split between a near miss and a big hit, so we’ll split the difference for now and go for a graze. This threat should be over by Monday, a holiday for some, which will be another very cold day, assuring us that the snow is going nowhere anytime soon.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Blowing snow. Additional accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows from near 10 northwest of Boston to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start with additional snow showers near eastern coastal locations, then clearing. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny except more clouds near eastern coastal areas with a risk of snow showers. Highs around 30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops PM, possibly heavy at night including wind. Low 15. High 30.
FRIDAY: AM snow and wind. PM clearing. Low 10. High 20.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low -5. High 15.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and wind. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

390 thoughts on “You’re Not Dreaming”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Complete nightmare …. 7 days out of the last 11 possible school days lost.

    I’m having a blast tracking these things, but getting tired of being in the house most of the time.

  5. I got little to add but more snow. This is getting to a level of absurdity. There is no short-term impact anymore. You are going to see companies with horrible February financials. There will be people who lose jobs due to lack of manufacturing, lack of shipping, lack of sales. Yes, there will be a rebound, but financial managers will need to even out revenue declines, with expense cuts.

    I feel bad because you just can’t go locally high enough in these storms and the highest impact regions are the centers of commerce for our area. Trained, schooled, responsible forecasters really struggle in these situations as these patterns are so unique.

    I hope to god I see no one cheering these next two storms on. There is nothing to be gained by these storms but more misery and economic hardship. I think Thursday is short duration but potentially heavy precip hit.

    I know I was really keyed on a 15 day storm train, but I envisioned nothing like this and not this cold either.

    My next concern is when this pattern changes. If it holds true to form it will come with an extreme under-forecasted U-Turn, that could lead to a new set of problems.

  8. Thank you TK.

    Serious question/Thought for all to ponder.

    Just had a serious discussion with my wife regarding the next potential
    storm AND the post-Storm Frigid air.

    This storm potentially will have strong winds with possible power outages.
    With the COLD that WILL FOLLOW, what happens if someone loses power
    for any extended period of time. Pipes WILL freeze and break. People could
    suffer severe damage to their homes. They could perish IF they stayed in their
    home without power. I mean this could be DEADLY serious.

    We’re trying to put a contingency plan in place in case the WORST of all possible
    outcomes occurs. Mostly likely ZERO chance of obtaining and installing a generator
    Prior to the next event.

    Any ideas/thoughts by all. Don’t mean to frighten anyone, but trying to be real.
    My wife is scared shitless out of her mind.

    Many thanks

    PS she heard BArry Burbank say there IS ANOTHER STORM COMING THURSDAY. When I tried to assure her that it was 3 days away and things could change. She said NO BARRY SAID IT WAS COMING.

    1. You make a good point about the cold coming and were not focusing on that which could be the coldest we have since going
      back to January 2004. This is the type of cold where pipes could burst water main breaks cars don’t start.
      I know in CT there a warming centers you could go to get warm so if for whatever reason you lose power during the cold
      that is coming maybe there is a warming center in the area you could go to.

    2. One of our friends, prior to the “blizzard”, put in for a hotel reservation.

      If I recall correctly, the blizzard was overnight Monday, into early Tuesday … so, on Tuesday morning, when it became clear that we werent going to lose power, they were able to cancel without getting charged.

      We had contingency plans of going to my dad’s place, because he rarely loses power due to his lines being underground.

      1. We have a gas fireplace for heat plus a wood fireplace.

        If water pipes freeze the reason they bust is due to pressure buildup. You have to drip water. We are going to look into what to do for heat pipes. I believe there is something that can be done

        We would head to daughters but perhaps they would not have power. As far as supplies we are typically set for outages.

    3. I was thinking that same thing today about power loss and the cold. Low risk with such powdery snow but man, a potentially bad situation. And the logistics getting around for repairs with all of the snow.

      Think of how many millions of people live within 50 miles of WHW. To JMA’s point about the woods of Vermont and Maine being able to handle this.

  10. Beautiful write-up, TK. As always, of course, but you’ve woven in morsels of history that make your forecast even more informative and unique.

  11. Seriously. I love the snow, but as a homeowner, this makes me nervous! No icicles, ice dams but a boatload of snow on my roof. My contractor says not to worry, but still….

  12. It is scary. But there is absolutely ZERO we can do about it, one way or another.

    Help your neighbors, check on your friends, and be smart. New Englanders often get a reputation for being cold. Now is not the time to be cold.

    Pardon the metaphor. 🙂

  13. JMA: You’re right to point to the negative implications of these storms. Thankfully, thus far, we’ve not seen extensive or long-duration power outages. There have been some, but not as widespread as we would have expected in February. I think this is partly due to colder temperatures and fluffier snow. Also, thankfully these were not ice storms which tend to have more long-lasting impact on residences and businesses than snowstorms. Finally, the coastal damage has not been catastrophic, as it was in February of 1978.

    I believe businesses can and do rebound fairly quickly from events like these. Consumers and businesses will have delayed their purchases. But, once the weather clears they will make those purchases and orders.

    1. It’s about done. There is a nice batch in eastern NY but it seems destined for points well northwest of here.

  16. How does the governor shut down public transportation without guaranteeing the most colossal traffic jam in the history of MA?

  17. Framingham of course is canceled tomorrow. I think that is June 26.

    Anyone want to drive us to Dana Boston Wednesday 🙁

  18. The saga of the coastal front continues ….

    Logan (which briefly got to 25F a couple hrs ago), Beverly and Blue Hill now reporting N winds again and temps back down into the teens.

    1. Even though the Wundermap shows a little bit of a Charlie hole over Hingham it is still snowing lightly and we’ve picked up another 1 inch since about 6:30.

  19. I was thinking about the comments.

    To me there is a HUGE difference between rooting for more snow and being fascinated but a setup we may literally (I hope) never see again.

  20. I was talking to another colleague today about our respective businesses and we have all but halted sales efforts in February. Instead we are focused on servicing and making things easier for our customers as they are facing the very same challenges we are at home and work.

    It will pass, but like others have voiced, I hope we are not trading one set of problems for another when this snow pack finally starts to melt in earnest.

    In the mean time, check on friends, family and neighbors. You know who may need help. Who knows, if your power gets knocked out or home gets damaged, they may return the favor sooner than you expected.

    Thankfully most of this snow has been of the cold/powder variety in metro west.

  21. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

    This particular system is causing problems tonight down in southern PA and probably in suburbia Baltimore and Washington.

    At low levels, enough low level cold air has PA below freezing and its getting close to that in Baltimore and Washington. Just enough returns on radar for some freezing rain down there.

  22. JJ, in response to your question on the last blog, we got about the same in Coventry as you did in Watertown – just under 9″. Compacted snow depth is about two feet now. Snow banks are high but still not to the levels we had in 2011….at least for now.

    1. The last 1.88 of January was pretty much snow, then prior to this event, the first .88 of February was all snow and then this system’s 1.22.

      So, without much melting, if those are reasonable totals, that means there’s 3.98 inches of water waiting to melt in everyone’s yards, etc …..

  24. I remember those snow banks we had in 2011 were quite high along with the numerous roof collapses across CT.
    We keep adding the snow up here and we got two snow THREATS in next 7 days we could come close to what those snow banks were in 2011 especially if big dumpings of snow happen.

    1. 3 roof collapses today on south shore.

      One in Rockland, MA had several people run out as it happened. I’m retty sure it was a work location.

  27. Frustrating. Still getting some light to moderate snow here in North Reading. Would like to do a final cleanup, but don’t want to have to do one more sweep tomorrow. Looks like it will be stopping here around 10 p.m. Does that sound right. Total snow here a little more than 16 inches. Since January 24, approximately 69 inches!

  28. Still SNOWING here, although pretty lightly.
    Temperature 17.2 Highest it got here was just under 21. 😀

    Almost NAM time. Will be watching Downton Abbey on Demand in a little bit.

    I need some DOWN (ton) time!

  31. Thanks TK And all the others that provide such helpful information. no school again in Plymouth tomorrow. I am ready for spring now!

  32. You know those ski area reports you get to judge ski conditions … I think we can do one for our towns ….

    Marshfield : 28-40″, 13″ new, packed powder ….. All beach trails 100% buried and open

    1. Lol. That’s terrific, Tom. And, instead of “hit the slopes,” it’s “hit the dunes of Rexhame.”

  34. Red Sox Truck Day is scheduled for Thursday. Irony of ironies if the truck can’t get out of the city because of our record-breaking snow.

  35. Just was out to take out trash and recycle as the town reported normal pickup for tomorrow (Andover) and it’s the heaviest snow of the day.
    Dang it’s a lot of snow out there and I’m a bit sore and tired!
    Work in Westborough has 10:00 open tomorrow but to be reassessed at 4;45 am.
    Tom

  37. If I heard correctly, Pete said that the Thursday storm could very well be a BLIZZARD and he wasn’t shy in saying so. The fact that the storm will at least be progressive, will it even stick around SNE long enough to qualify for 3 hours of blizzard conditions?

      1. During the 6:00 pm newscast, Pete was almost certain of a hit so I assume the models have changed considerably since this morning.

  38. At 84hrs, well out of the NAMs reliable range, it shows 6-8 inches by Friday at 12z in eastern most sections.

  40. It will be interesting which model wins the battle with the next storm. Does GFS stay course and EURO comes around to GFS or does the GFS coming around to what the EURO is saying??

  41. I’m going with two grazes in a row: generally 3-6 inches on Thursday/Friday, with South and North Shore hitting the `jackpot’ at slightly above 6 inches. Then on Sunday 2-4 inches Boston metro, with the Cape/Islands getting the brunt of the storm at 6-10. Nantucket could get a foot. I can see the South Shore getting in the 4-6 inch range. Both systems will remain well off shore. Both will usher in very cold air. And, both will result in lots of blowing snow and wind. My prediction for what it’s worth, and that ain’t much given my competition on this blog.

        1. Yes, there are plenty of non-stop flights to Fort Myers, Florida. You can get in some pre Spring training.

      1. I think we get something, especially in Eastern/coastal sections. I think both will be powerful ocean storms with quite a bit of reach back to the coast, resulting in at least some plowable snow, quite a bit of wind, and some ocean enhancement, too. With both systems the dry cold air to our north and west will chomp away at the precipitation shield, however, making amounts in the interior fairly minimal.

  42. Snowing moderately again in Hingham. Temp down to 18 now. vis between 1/4 and 1/2 mile. Been snowing now for about 54 hours (give or take a couple of hours).

  43. According to NWS the track/intensity of the Thursday storm will determine what happens on Sunday.

    Can you explain this TK? Also, even if we totally escape both these storms, are there still more in the pipeline through the rest of the month?

  44. Actually had a surprise burst of heavy snow here in northern CT in the past hour. One last burst of snow headed towards eastern MA….

  47. The 18z GFS spawned the coastal off Hatteras, the 0z has it developing further north off NJ and tracks it over the benchmark.

    1. Actually tracks SE from NJ and loops around just south and east of the BM. Definite shift east on this run but still a hit. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds its ground or shifts west and meets the GFS in the middle…

  48. The late coastal redevelopment results in the storm not being able to crank up quickly enough. Still though, a general 6-10″ across SNE, more like 3-6″ in western NE. The snowmap I posted above is pretty much the storm total. Does not appear to be any additional accumulation beyond that.

  49. Sunday is a miss as well on the GFS but it seems to be creating a norlun trough which creates a band of accumulating snow across NYC and parts of CT. That doesn’t make it into eastern New England though.

    1. Correction…actually stepped outside and it’s more of a moderate snow borderline heavy with vis about 1/4 mile. Temp at 17 and we’ve picked up a couple of additional inches since around 8:30. Very quiet and serene out there right now. Now plows or sanders have been seen in a couple of hours. I imagine they are now waiting for this to end.

  54. 0z Euro is a grazer for Thursday with a couple inches across SNE, 3 or 4 in SE MA. Sunday is now a near miss as well but the ocean storm bombs out to 964 mb!! Draws in some absolutely frigid air and strong winds in its wake.

  56. 6z run of gfs hits most eastern sections with 6-8 on first storm, then a 2-4 grazing in second storm with most occurring over the cape.

    That second storm is too close for comfort. I want that sucker to go WAAAAAY far away.

  57. Lack of model consensus has me thinking thursday is going to be a miss or VERY minimal impact.

    Not sure what, if anything, that could mean for Sunday.

          1. Thanks. I guess we will need to wait a few days to start really looking at Sunday. I just don’t see it making it in here.

  60. Getting ready To leave work with the buzz around of two more storms. Im making out ok but I and probably other snow removal personal need a little bit of a break here. Or I can say everybody needs a break from this. I’m 43 and don’t remember a month like this with just one big storm after another .

  61. Thanks, TK. Great post w/interesting info.

    Here’s to at least one of the next storms just grazing us! 🙂

    1. Hopefully …. We’re probably going to need another 24-36 hrs to see how the storm due south of us intensifies and its exact tracks over the ocean southeast of us. Those 2 variables in that storm likely will have some effect on how the Thursday night – Friday system effects us.

      Tough to trust the models since the storm south of us is in the open ocean vs being over land.

      1. Tom, what should we watch for in that storm to the south? If it intensifies then we’re in for it on Friday?

        1. I think. If it intensifies more, then perhaps the ridge behind it is stronger, which then might hold the Thursday night low closer to the coastl.

  63. 1″ new snow overnight …

    Must be real low-level stuff, not on radar …. but a light, fine misty snow continues.

  66. Definitely a positive trend on the Thursday storm, that one looks to stay mostly out to sea. Just a few inches in eastern areas, maybe a little more on the Cape. The Sunday storm has me worried though. Honestly it reminds me to a large extent of the blizzard a couple weeks back. It certainly has the same potential. That one still isn’t sampled well though so we just have to watch it.

  69. Just got done from another round of shoveling. Not too bad this time. Cloudy and chilly 18 degrees with a few flurries in the area.

  70. Going out soon…another inch or so in the driveway but the roof is the pain to do…and at the point where I need to shovel out the foundation as the snow is too high. Fun times!

    1. The foundation ship has sailed. The snow is now literally even with our bottom window sills 🙂 First time in the nearly 36 years we have lived here.

      1. Its up to the bottom sills of our windows too! We have a very low to the ground ranch. Another foot and our bay window will be covered

  71. Good morning. UNCERTAINTY is the word of the day.

    Could be 2 misses, 2 grazes, 2 hits, OR 1 graze and 1 hit. Who the bleep knows!!

    NAM has a MISS for Thursday/Fri
    GFS has a modest hit from both, not major impact, but an impact. About 5-7 inches
    for each of them.

    Euro looks intriguing. Hard to tell with 24 hour increments.
    Wundermap looks like some snow from each with greater impact from Sunday, but
    still not a full blow:

    http://i.imgur.com/TW1PrY2.png

    NWS re: Sunday

    SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY…

    A ONE-TWO PUNCH? OF THE WINTER STORMS IN OUR FUTURE THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATER IMPACT. PER AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST THERE ARE GREATER INDICATIONS OF ARCTIC ENERGY CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NE- CONUS AMPLIFYING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SE OF NANTUCKET.

    ATTRIBUTABLE ENERGY HAS NOT EVEN BEEN SAMPLED. LOTS OF SPECULATION AND UNCERTAINTY. BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. CONCERN OVER THE POTENTIAL OF OCCLUSION IN PROXIMITY OF S NEW ENGLAND COULD YIELD A STORM OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY LEAVING A CONSIDERABLE MARK ON OUR REGION.

  73. Old Salty I don’t if you got a chance to read the link I posted from NWS out of Upton a little bit earlier. Very good write up especially about that Sunday storm threat.

    1. Yup, read it. Thanks.

      UNCERTAINTY!!

      AND I HATE THAT with a PASSION. I WANT to know, SNOW OR NO.
      None of this well MAYBE crap!!!!

      People need to plan. Are we going to get hit or not.

      I see on Social Media that there is the possibility of BLIZZARD condtions
      Thursday night into Friday. GREAT! YES OR NO? POSSIBILITY????
      That is going the SCARE the CRAP out of people.

      End of rant. Sorry. I LOVE SNOW, but this is plain and simply TOO MUCH!!!

  75. A few shots of the snow around here:

    My Driveway

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10978669_10205947605876364_3660471803594975595_n.jpg?oh=62390c73142bfe717bf540da2cc5bb24&oe=5549B9AD&__gda__=1435576786_75eb47d4d8a1d1a8d4a155a4c841c32b

    Our Driveway looking out

    https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10359538_10205947605636358_8799819819546462446_n.jpg?oh=7d06fdb05e5b2d4e3cbee52fa6a92b00&oe=55638230

    Our street last night

    https://scontent-a-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10422374_10205947606076369_4239965909146435695_n.jpg?oh=d4b30a75886c64ddee980b9ea5f841ae&oe=554C82B4

  77. We have a 4 foot fence between us and the neighbors behind. Last night when I let the dog in, the neighbor’s dog came with her, he can now literally just step over the top of the fence into our yard!

  78. John, is Children’s open? I just called Dana to find out about tomorrow and the Longwood campus is closed. It must have been closed yesterday also as I noticed our neighbor didn’t go to work.

  84. Steady, light snow. Blowing snow. Its accumulating.

    With the ocean low to our south and a high to the north, it may really struggle to completely stop snow along the coastline ……

    1. Tom, u mentioned earlier that storm sitting and spinning to our south will have a direct impact on the thurs/fri storm. What should we watch for in that storm? Strengthening?

      2. I think if the storm is more intense …. Then the trof with it is likely deeper………. In response to that, the ridge behind it should be stronger. That, in theory, would keep the Thurs night – Fri storm closer to the coast.

        I cant take credit for this thinking. Its really TK and I remember him applying logic like this to a situation a few weeks back. Now, whether or not I understood him correctly ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  85. Seeing all these pictures reminds me to take some pics of the yard and driveway when i get home today. Awesome pics for my kids to see someday of how the house looked with record amounts of snow. I remember as a kid I saw pics of my grandparents house after ’78 and being amazed at how much snow there was.

  87. 12Z NAM so far in every frame through 35 hrs has shown a little piece of ocean effect snow along the south shore.

    1. You beat me to it. Sorry for the duplicate post. Didn’t see yours while I was
      posting. Went from the map to post. 😀

      1. lol, its ok OS. I almost missed in on the map, it was so faint, but when i noticed it i was like hmm, thats odd and went back to the beginning of the run and saw it in every frame

    2. Yup …. And there’s a reinforcing shot of cold (as if we need that) moving into eastern Canada ….. And this ocean storm might yank it right down over the Gulf of Maine and into eastermost New England.

  89. Boy, that is some Potent Northern Stream energy with Thursday’s Clipper dropping down. WOW! is all I can say. What will it do? What will it do?

  90. Snowing in Back Bay. Gentle snow. We may get bouts of snow showers on and off all week. Some may lead to light accumulations. I wouldn’t rule out an inch or two every day this week in some locales. I’m not seeing a major storm Thursday, however. Perhaps 1-3 inches, and more in Tom’s neighborhood as well as the Cape and Islands. Similar scenario Sunday, though the potential for much more remains. Any additional snow will lead to more hazardous road conditions. The roads are not great to begin with. They’re narrow, icy in spots, and banged up (potholes). So additional layers of snow, even if they’re minor, just exacerbates an already precarious situation.

  91. SNOWING pretty hard here. We have a persistent, expanding, intensifying Ocean
    Snow band over us at the present time.

  92. As i was finishing cleaning up the driveway last night, I couldnt help but remember at the end of this past summer sitting down outside with TK, Hadi, Tom, retrac, Emily, and TK’s son Nate at JP Lick’s at Legacy Place in shorts and flip flops licking an ice cream cone talking about this upcoming winter and wondering what it will bring….

    1. Well now we know and who knows what’s left to come.
      We are n Historical territory. IN today’s NWS discussion they actually
      tossed out the possibility of this breaking the ALL time season snow record
      (since records were kept. Who knows if it is really all time.) 😀

  93. Let’s rename our city Bostuffalo.

    Ocean effect usually does NOT concern me. It’s often an enhancement to an existing coastal storm, but on its own presents few problems. However, we may be in a situation in which the ocean effect snows tomorrow (even today) do become an issue all along the coast. Perhaps Thursday as well. I think that part of the problem is that the ocean temperature has been relatively warm this year. I may be wrong in my assessment, but I believe that the deeper waters of the Atlantic are significantly warmer than normal (to our south), and the shallower waters off our coast are somewhat warmer.

    1. Check the NAM. It keep the Ocean Effect going ALL DAY tomorrow
      and Thursday as well. Only shutting down briefly prior to the arrival of
      the next synoptic snow from the clipper. We will get “some” snow out of it
      whether the redeveloped storm is off shore or not.

  94. To me, it looks as though the trough remains TOO positively tilted, taking any
    storm development off shore. We shall see.

    1. AND so it does with the 12Z NAM.
      Storm gets potent, but develops too far out to effect us.
      We get an inch or 2 from the clipper passage is all.

      Let us hope that this solution verifies. Now we wait for the other
      12Z runs.

      I don’t think we can trust the NAM on this. This is TOO CLOSE
      for COMFORT and way too early to let our guard down.

  97. Of course …..

    The not good news in missing the first, strong …. but more progressive storm Thursday night ……

    Well, the 00z GFS moderately hits Thursday night, misses/grazes Sunday

    The 06z GFS grazes Thursday night, but is somewhat closer Sunday

    The 2nd storm (Sunday) is the monster ……

    1. Yes, indeed. The NWS is very concerned about that one. NOT as progressive
      and could stick around awhile, which would NOT be good. Potential BIG
      winds with that one as well.

      Anxiously awaiting the rest of the 12Z runs.

      Have a Manager’s Conference call at 10:30 AM as our office is closed
      once again today.

    1. I like that!!

      In work right now and some flurries are flying around the area. Some of the women in the office have noticed several cracks running from the ceiling down to the top of several office doors. Not sure if they were there before all this snow or not. This is not in the Med Center but in the Business Office across the complex (it’s actually the old Wearguard building). I notified facilities and the office managers. Keeping our fingers crossed.

  99. I think the ambiguity you are seeing with the NWS is the fact the Sunday storm could potentially be more potent with greater impact, while the Thursday system is a little more definable, as a fast moving clipper with some late coastal development. Of course there are local areas now that have got 20-24″+ from west to east moving systems twice in a short period so who knows what is predictable, let alone definable?

    Think about it, this morning there is a low ejecting off the Carolina Coast, that is going out to sea well south of us. In typical winter in early February that would be a prime candidate for a snow producer here. Not this year! Instead we are in very snowy +NAO pattern. There are lots of contradictions in this pattern, but one of the best descriptions I have heard or read is from TK-We are enduring a Labrador winter displaced several hundred miles.

  100. I’m dealing with a significant window-frame leak from a massive ice dam on sunroom roof/gutters (only area in home with no insulation) Waiting on Roof Melt which should arrive on Thursday. In the meantime, I think I’ll go ahead and make my own roof melts with stockings and calcium chloride. Any other suggestions? Roof too high to rake off snow.

    1. Sorry to hear. My roof is way to high for me to do anything but sit back
      and hope nothing happens. So far everything is dry.

      Brand new roof which was done in April. They took extra measures to help
      prevent ice dams. HOPE it works.

      1. Sounds like you should be all set, OS. In the spring, I’m going to have a leak barrier put on the roof’s edge. May also have to look at some other options, too.

  102. Philip… Saw your question above about the relation between the two storms regarding track. Will get to that when I am not on my phone. I’m a keyboard guy. 🙂

  104. Had to give up shoveling. Every time I made any progress a plow would come by and pin me in again. Not their fault. Nowhere else to go. Boss is picking me up to go in for a few hours. Lucky him to have a driveway!

  105. If any of these next storms hit us, it’s official. The universe is playing some cruel joke on us.

    Oh wait. IT ALREADY IS.

  114. From Matt Noyes for those who think winters of yesteryear were tougher…

    “There was more snow back in the day,” often spoken, never verified. True statistic: I went back over last four generations in Boston. This generation averages nearly 10″ more snow per year than great-grandparents, also the most of the last four generations. Let those who want to wax poetic, but the numbers tell the story: Bostonians are living in the snowiest generation of the last four. Some distinction for our shoveling.

  116. Weather Services Int retweeted
    Michael Page ‏@MichaelPageWx 3m3 minutes ago
    Breaking: Roof collapses in downtown Hingham under weight of snow; Lincoln Building was in poor condition. #MASnow

  117. I have mixed feelings on this, but i dont think it was necessary for TV mets to even mention the Thurs/Fri threat let alone use the B word for at least for another day or so. I understand people need time to prepare for more snow, but to scare people like that was unnecessary until more info came in regarding that storm. It now appears it will have minimal impact.

    2. That was pure hype. It does not “allow extra time to prepare”. Prepare how? People know what to do by now. If you are not ready for anything by now then oops!

    1. Both of these systems are STRONG, with Sunday being the STRONGER.

      So far so good with ALL guidance OFF SHORE!!!

      Now the EURO

        1. I Love snow, but there comes a time when enough is enough. I have no place to put anymore snow.

          And I am concerned about the roof.

          1. I hear you…I have roof raked every storm and still have some ice forming in the gutters. Sucks. Would love three or four days of 40…the sun is strong if we can just get it.

            1. I would need a long ladder as in 40 footer
              to get up to the roof. Roof raking hanging onto a 40 foot ladder is OUT of the question.

    1. yes it is but should be called global climate change, not global warming since not all areas are warming and drying…. One of those such areas is the northeast USA. Past 2 to 3 years the northeast has been one of the 3 to 4 areas in the blue to white shades on the temperature map while the rest is red

  123. It might not have to snow from those 2 ocean storms to affect eastern Mass, where the snow is deepest.

    Looks like a decent amount of wind, with our region btwn the lows to the east and highs to the west.

    25-30 mph winds near the coastal plain, along with icy cold temps ….. The snow is so deep, the wind wont have much problem grabbing it and blowing it around.

    I could see some travel impacts from that alone.

  124. Today there will be some compacting and melting, especially if the sun comes out. Not as much as last Wednesday, but definitely some.

    Regarding the models, the storms depicted for both Thursday and Sunday are too close for comfort. Can’t say with any certainty that they’ll miss at this point. I think they will both `miss’ but still give some of us plowable snow.

  125. Too Close for Comfort is an understatement.

    Sure does look like mostly misses with perhaps a couple of inches
    of snow out of each.

    Needs to be watched. How many times have we seen this where we think
    a storm is safely off shore when WHAM! A late model runs shows a hit and we get nailed.

    BUT hopefully, they stay off shore.

  126. Dealing with ice dams on my roof, it sucks being on top of the roof with a sledge/ax chopping the ice off. I felt like i was gonna fall like 3 times, luckily now im going skiing to enjoy this POW!!

  127. 3 things that concern me about the Sunday system …..

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    1) The PNA teleconnection is headed towards its most positive phase right around Feb. 15th. You can see this playing out in the 500mb ridge off of the US west coast on the 12z run of the GFS. The amplitude of that ridge is growing as you progress towards 2/15 or 2/16. Though it doesnt seem to do it, I’d be worried that it will help to sharpen the overall trof more in the eastern US and bring the center of the trof back to the west ever so slightly.

    2) the intensity of this system staying consistent on the models. Under 980 mb east of us, 950s !!! in the Maritimes.

    3) the trends to the Thursday storm I feel good about because its only 2 days away now and the western ridge isnt what it will be closer to 2/16.

    I really hope the Sunday system continues to show a miss, but especially item #1 above makes me unsure that this positive scenario will continue.

    2. Nice Tom.

      That feature is what could certainly change things.

      I would like to add, IF that were to happen and the Eastern trough sharpens
      and even goes negative, the storm would be STRONGER still. Perhaps
      like 965-970 MB at our Latitude and then down to the 940s farther along.

      A COLOSSAL MEGA BOMB!!!

      Let us hope NOT

      1. Hope not indeed …..

        I’ve told a few people in my neighborhood that it has the chance to be the strongest system so far in this stretch …. and, if it ever hits us, the snow will be the least of our concerns. It has been nice finishing off by saying, so far, it doesnt look like a direct hit.

      1. 🙂 I just dont think we can take much more, so I’m concerned for that reason.

        I drove around and I saw someone having to stand out at the edge of the driveway, instructing the driver in the car as to when they could safely back out of the driveway and into the road.

    4. To this point, the GFS shows a deep trough in the eastern U.S. after that time period with multiple snow threats to follow right to the end of February. I guess it will be a question of whether the trough shows up early enough for the Sunday Storm. A more traditional looking Winter Storm looks to head our way the middle of next week where the entire east coast faces some sort of wintry precipitation.

      1. It could be an interesting Feb school vacation week.

        Maybe the atmosphere will have it completely out of its system when we return to school on the 23rd, I hope !!! 🙂 🙂

  129. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 3m3 minutes ago
    two threats coming..first Thursday into Friday is a close shave..500 mb on Sunday looks impressive to me

      1. Spent many lovely evenings as a child and in younger years at Pier 4. Beautiful pictures, OS….nice memories. Thanks. You do have a great tendency to find photos that make me go ahhhhhhh

  131. A balmy 34 here in North Reading. Just finished my near-final cleanup and was finally able to get to the bird feeders and refill them. Little more to go. No Mas!

  132. You guys/gals are all saying Thursday and Sunday miss, but it still looks to me there will be some snow in eastern Mass. from both. If they “miss,” does that still mean we will get 3 or 4 inches out of each? If so, even that is too much. So dangerous driving. Basically no intersections cleared in my town. Incredibly difficult pulling out into various roadways. HELP!

  133. So far, so good on EURO.

    First system is well south and east of the benchmark.

    Things leading into the Sunday system up to 96 hrs look slightly LESS amplified, compared to 12z yesterday.

      1. Ok 🙂

        Sunday system a bit further east (25-50 miles) than what it was on the EURO yesterday.

        Still closer than what the GFS shows, but a trend eastward also on the EURO.

        1. I’m guessing today’s EURO track would still throw some snow and wind back into southeastern Mass.

          I apologize that I dont know how to post a snowmap or get one. 🙂 🙂

          1. For sure.

            One missed arctic region shortwave or the western USA ridge being underforecast in strength ………..

            Of course, it can work in a positive way too. Something being missed could make this thing end up further east another 100 miles.

            Interesting computer model runs ahead for the next 72 hrs as relates to Sunday.

  135. Tom: Thanks for checking the models. Perusing models myself I’d say we’re NOT out of the woods yet. Looking better than yesterday, which is good. But, as with the previous 3 storms model guidance is just that. Track variation should be monitored on both systems. Shifts of 50 to 100 miles one way or the other can make a huge difference, as we all know. Also storm size and reach (Sunday) can have an impact, even if the storm is east of the benchmark.

  136. The weather nut in me is disappointed the next snow threats are dwindling, but the practical side of me is relieved

  139. If you take the 12z ECMWF verbatim and when have I ever done that? It does weaken the cold a bit, and bottoms it out on Monday morning around 0 to -3 in Boston for a low temp. As for snowfall it would say you will get at Boston about 1″ on Thursday. 2-3″ on Sunday and 3-4″ on Tuesday Night / Wednesday.

      1. Thursday concerns me more than Sunday. I think this pattern favors more intense west to east systems than modeled and further south and east for coastal systems.

  143. Looking at Thursday, a 50-100 mile “sneeze” of this system in one direction or the other would be meaningful. I prefer the OTS sneeze (which of course means it won’t happen!).

  144. 18Z NAM STILL has Thursday WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
    out there. Unless it get sucks in by some miracle Negative Tilt, it’s GONE BABY GONE!!!

      1. It’s unfortunate, but I wish being a good employee and keeping jobs didn’t involve hype and giving out information to the public that may or may not happen. But, such is the high cost of entertainment.

  146. NWS 4pm discussion

    OVERVIEW…
    WITH 10.12Z OPERATIONAL AND AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES SHOWING GENERALLY
    ABOVE AVERAGE CLUSTERING THROUGH THE MID TERM…AGREE WITH WPC
    THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WITH THE RELATIVELY
    CONSISTENT ECENS ARE A GOOD STARTING POINT AT LEAST INTO THE
    WEEKEND. THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THAT THE THU-FRI TROF TILT OCCURS
    TOO LATE AND TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS SRN
    NEW ENGLAND. STILL COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY FOR ERN
    MA…WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND. STILL…THE DEEPENING OF
    THIS TROF WILL STILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO ENTER THE REGION FOR
    THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS IT ALTERS THE OVERALL TRAJECTORY
    ACROSS THE E. REGARDING THE SYSTEM FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN…THE
    BOOK IS SIMPLE NOT YET WRITTEN…THE UPPER LVL WAVE WHICH WILL
    INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL YET TO BE FULLY SAMPLED IN EXTREME
    NW CANADA AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PHASING ISSUES AT HAND…THERE
    IS STILL TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY. YET…GIVEN THE CONSISTENTLY
    POSITIVE TELECONNETIONS AND E SHIFT IN THE LATE WEEK
    STORM…COULD BE SETTING THE TABLE. ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A LOT OF
    SPREAD HERE…BUT SOME WITHIN BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE
    POTENTIALLY BIG HITS. STAY TUNED FOR NOW.

  147. Light hit.
    Near miss.
    Hit.
    Light hit.
    Hit.
    Pattern change.

    That describes the rest of February.

    Going outside to do some shoveling cleanup while it is “relatively mild”. 🙂

  148. According to Pete, mostly 1-3″ but 3-6″ for the Cape for Thursday and Sunday appears as a glancing blow as well. However, next Tuesday looks like a hit.

    At least we get a few days break. We’ll take what we can get.

      1. Moisture or not, that is an indication of lots of energy
        in the atmosphere. When that reaches the coast, KABOOM!!

        So, it should concern us. HOPEFULLY the bulk of that explosive development is off shore and we get a miss or at the most
        2 or 3 inches.

    2. That system will weaken as it traverses the country – it’ll be looking for moisture in all the wrong places (like the middle of Indiana) – but will redevelop and strengthen once it finds a reliable source (the Atlantic ocean tends to be such a source). But, it appears that redevelopment and strengthening will take place too far from New England to have much impact. This said, I’m still concerned about a shift west from its projected track. Don’t count Thursday out. Yesterday Pete Bouchard said blizzard. Today he says nothing. Tomorrow, who knows what he’ll say. It’s more prudent (but less sexy for ratings) to provide cautious forecasts that stipulate a range of possibilities and their likelihood. Personally, I think it is just as inane to yell blizzard on Monday as it is to put out a map on Tuesday that says 1-3 inches.

  150. 1. 107.6″ = 1995-96
    2. 96.3″ = 1993-94
    3. 89.2″ = 1947-48
    4. 86.6″ = 2004-05
    5. 85.1″ = 1977-78
    6. 83.9″ = 1992-93
    7. 81.0″ = 2010-11
    8. 79.2″ = 1915-16
    9. 78.0″ = 2014-15**
    10. 73.4″ = 1919-20

    ** to date

  151. Well, 18z GFS throws a slight curve.

    It develops the 2nd low around NYC, not the delmarva and moves it east, mayne east southeast.

    But the new starting point brings precip from 2nd low slightly closer to coast.

    Snow amts slightly higher along coastal Mass vs 12z.

    1. It is a mess here too but I believe Plymouth is open tomorrow. Of course now that they are going back to school one of my sons is coming down with something. May have to take a trip to Keith’s workplace tomorrow for a quick strep test.

  156. John. You probably didn’t see my question earlier and if you did I didn’t see a response. Was children’s open ? Dana has been closed for two days. We have an appointment tomorrow but no idea what will happen.

    1. Hi Vicki I did not sorry . Children’s does not close it’s an inpatient boston hospital with close to 4o0 inpatient beds . Not sure if you knew this but the Dana is only a daily hospital for patient care it’s not an inpatient hospital . As far as Dana being closed for two days I’m kind of scratching my head over that how they would close maybe because it’s just day care not sure. Either case you should have received a call from the hospital if they were going to cancel . You can check there web site . Realy sitting here in disbelief how they were closed . If you do go in if it’s still on just alow some extra time for congestion in the city.I hope this helps.

      1. Thanks for the info, John. I’m glad you are home and can catch up a bit on rest. And hope you feel better

        I do know Dana is not inpatient. I talked to my neighbor. They just closed today but we would not have gotten a call because we go tomorrow. Even though it is not inpatient, the care is more often than not incredibly critical. Not good it had to close but I understand.

        1. Very critical and an excellent institution!!!! Best of luck. Remember plan on extra time for Boston traffic.

          1. We are getting a ride in and allowing two hours. Out neighbor works in the dept we are going to and will get us in but I wouldn’t want to take advantage.

    2. Hi Vicki I did not sorry . Children’s does not close it’s an inpatient boston hospital with close to 4o0 inpatient beds . Not sure if you knew this but the Dana is only a daily hospital for patient care it’s not an inpatient hospital . As far as Dana being closed for two days I’m kind of scratching my head over that how they would close maybe because it’s just day care not sure. Either case you should have received a call from the hospital if they were going to cancel . You can check there web site . Realy sitting here in disbelief how they were closed . If you do go in if it’s still on just alow some extra time for congestion in the city.I hope this helps.

  157. Keith I just heard a roof collapsed in hingham square.

    An 80 year old man who lives next to my son on laws office building in Ashland had his roof cleared. It took two hours for there people and cost $1000. Im hoping karma takes care of those who are doing this.

    1. Vicki…the building in Hingham was the Lincoln Bldg. An old but great looking building right in the square. Went by it tonight and looks mainly like the NW quadrant of the building came down. I think it might have done some damage to the building next door.

      At my office (across the street from the med center) we had several cracks appear and it seems to be where there are expansion brackets (?). Anyway the people who the building had a structural engineer in late in the day. Don’t know what came of that.

  158. According to Harvey, there is more potential for Sunday than Thursday. I was assuming that Sunday would be similar to Thursday, at least according to Pete.

    Will there be the usual flip-flop of the models??? UGH!

  159. With the memories of Feb. 1978 still fresh in our minds, I find ironic that our current snowfall for Logan so far is 78.0″. 😀

    1. Love that.

      By the way to answer your much earlier question quite simply, the position and rate of deepening of one low pressure not only at surface but aloft will help shape the upstream and downstream features and will have a direct impact on the system following it, sometimes subtle impact, sometimes more pronounced, depending on the strength, amplitude, and interaction of troughs/ridges.

      1. Thanks TK. So that means that the Sunday system will not have much impact as well? Keeping fingers crossed. 🙂

      1. The trough will become more negatively tilted as did the majority of the storms over the course of the last 4 weeks. I wouldn’t count this out whatsoever.

        1. Arod your calls have been spot on but I believe at this time Thursday is nothing big for these parts anyways. Cape cod highest totals less than 6 for Boston and that would be a lot if they hit six. I’d concentrate on the Sunday one but that one is actually Saturday night I believe. Of course I could be wrong.

  162. I always say when there is low pressure on east coast needs to be watched. These next two storm threats too close for comfort in my opinion. Will see what 0z runs have to say and 12z tomorrow.

  164. Working on a new blog.

    Max amounts for tomorrow’s ocean-effect will be 2-4 inches on the South Shore but the odds of it are about 50/50, most coastal areas will see under 2 inches.

    Max amounts for Thursday night’s event will be 4-8 inches on the outer portion of Cape Cod with 2-4 inches remainder of Cape Cod to the South Shore and a coating to 2 inches elsewhere.

    Too early for amounts Sunday, but it will probably be the lightest event of the 3, despite being a gorilla of a storm out there over the water. I believe the redevelopment of the Thursday night system, though too late to nail this area, will be significant enough to alter the features to allow the Sunday system to be significantly further east, though larger in size.

    Wicked cold Sunday PM through Monday.

    Significant snow threat late Tuesday of next week.

    3. Thanks TK, great summary …… I’m sure we’ll get the max 2-4 tomorrow, the way things have been going ….

  165. Just got in from another 2 hour round of shoveling what the fracking plows did to my driveway and walkway. I now have 9 ft snow banks on either side of the driveway.

    I’m beat, sore and taking more motrin….now where’s the beer 🙂

    1. Very good read and a touch of fun. I like this guy!!

      I hope the melt is slow. The water level in this area was higher than I have seen in a long time and high for December. The Sudbury loves to flood.

  167. TK,

    Anyway that tuesday systems will be further east? I just booked a trip to PuertoRico and I really need to get away!!

    Thanks,
    TJ

    1. That one looks like it has a much further NW start and may, if anything, come fairly close to the coast compared to recent ones.

    1. I’m glad you’re leaving Wednesday afternoon and not Tuesday evening. I think you’ll be fine. Logan actually did better than the T during all 3 storms! Yes, there were many canceled flights, but they resumed flights much faster than the T resumed service. Tuesday’s threat does not appear to be a blizzard. At least from what I see. This said, it’s a week away. Stay tuned. I’ve got my guard up for Thursday, Saturday/Sunday, and Tuesday, just in case. Hey, I even have my guard up against ocean effect flurries tomorrow.

  169. Got a chance to drive around town tonight …..

    Just put up a flood watch now.

    It doesnt matter if rain or mild temps are a week or week(s) away. Put the thought in people’s minds now.

    The volume of snow that has to melt is almost incomprehensible. And most of it is high density snow, not much is powder that disappears in the blink of an eye.

  170. Looking at the maps…. buy orange juice futures if it’s not too late already. I see a price spike coming….

  171. This may sound foolish on my part, but I believe the 1995-1996 record will be very hard to beat. That was an incredible season because there were so many storms throughout the entire winter and early spring. In my mind that winter was memorable because of its consistency each and every month of the season.

    30 more inches may seem like a little, but in reality it’s a lot. It’s 4 or 5 winter storms. I don’t think this winter has 4 or 5 winter storms in it. More snow, yes. Will we break into the 90-100 inch range? Possibly. But, don’t count on it.

      2. You should get a prize for that guess. I think we’ll come close. My original guess was something like 17 inches. How far off was I! If I had to hazard a guess at this point about how much we’ll get between now and mid April I’d say 18 inches (measurement at Logan). 18 inches sounds like nothing, given what we’ve been having recently. But, I sense we’ve had our `fun’ with major storms already. And, once a pattern change takes hold I do think we will pretty much say goodbye to accumulating snows. I think many will be pleasantly surprised by March. I now sound like Charlie, but this year I really do believe it. Last year and the year before, Spring was nowhere to be found in March.

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