Hey, Who Put The Weather On Repeat?

462 Comments

6:58PM

SUMMARY…
Not a whole lot of new news to report on this entry. We had a little ocean-effect snow today on the far northwest flank of a large ocean storm. Now that heads off to the North Atlantic waters and the low pressure area we have been expecting comes in from the Great Lakes later Thursday and redevelops offshore Thursday night, acting just about the way we expected, maybe even a bit further out and faster. So the adjustment on this forecast will be tweak snow amounts down and remove the snow threat from the early Friday forecast. Friday itself will be a bright but very windy and cold day. We continue to monitor a storm that will have at least some impact on southern New England over the weekend. Today’s trends are to push the storm a little closer with greater snow/wind impact, but there is enough uncertainty to prompt me to leave the forecast as is for now and continue to monitor. As this pattern goes on, we do expected a blast of extremely cold air for Presidents Day Monday, followed by that previously-mentioned storm threat later Tuesday into Wednesday. That storm may have milder air involved with it and have a more complex precipitation pattern, but it’s quite far out there still and we’ll follow this over the coming days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Coastal clouds and flurries linger across southeastern MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 10s. Wind light NE to E early then shifting to N later.
THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow developing from west to east during the afternoon. Highs 25-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow, ending before dawn from west to east. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, with 2-4 inches over Cape Cod and Nantucket. Lows around 10. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 15. Wind NW 15-35 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds. Snow late day and night along with increasing wind. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow and wind, especially eastern areas, then a clearing trend favoring western areas later day. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow. Low -5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain. Low 20. High 35.

462 thoughts on “Hey, Who Put The Weather On Repeat?”

  3. Ok, if you want to have some fun …..

    On instant weather maps, find the 500mb feature from the 12z EURO at 96hrs.

    Then back up 24 hrs at a time while you select the EURO CANADA 500 mb heights. Follow it all the way back to where it is emerging out of the arctic.

    Once you’ve found it, here is a link below, hopefully it the link works …. Once in, Hit the arrow to make it play. If you look hard, its pretty easy to see the upper level bowling bowl headed our way.

    http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=hrpt_dfo_ir_m_………………jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

    1. Arrrrrgh … Didnt exactly take, sorry.

      Well, if you know of ways to get arctic satellite pictures, our Saturday night storm is easily seen up there.

  4. Thanks, TK. I like your approach. It’s cautious and measured.

    We’ll see what happens. But, I’m fed up with the mets who keep calling for blizzards 72 hours in advance. The meaningless tweets are more than a nuisance. Some are not even professional, in my view.

    There is a chance at a significant storm on Saturday/Sunday, but only a chance at this point. If I were a betting person, and I’m not, I’d give it a 40%-50% chance, with a 50-60% chance at either a low impact snow event or no event at all. At this point in time, it’s pointless and irresponsible therefore to put out numbers like 1 to 2 feet, blizzard, and 50-80mph gusts. We don’t know that this will happen. In fact, we have very little supportive evidence that this will happen. it’s what ONE model run told us, 72 hours prior to the event.

    1. I think you are being a bit too conservative and 72 hours although enough time for change is I think an ok time line to start talking about their take on what they think will happen. I like Bernie because he applies meteorology to his presentations. As an example he was early on pointing out the pieces that were out there and why the models would come around to the idea of a major event for Sunday.

    2. Since “blizzard” is a condition that has specific criteria, you are 100% correct. 72 hours is too soon. The public is starting to think “blizzard” is related to how much snow is going to fall from the sky.

  9. In case anybody doubts how serious the impact of these weather events is becoming I just wanted to share this. I own a business in Newton. As of today I have either laid off or substantially reduced the hours of all full time employees. Business for the most part has simply stopped. The parking is gone, sidewalks not shoveled or plowed, intersections gridlocked for hours and customers not able to climb 10′ snowbanks or walk on ice covered roadways. We haven’t been open a full week in the last month and now it sounds like all business will get killed again this weekend. I especially feel for the restaurants for whom valentines day is usually a huge source of revenue in a normally bleak season – several mets all but saying “cancel those weekend plans.” It’s not their fault I know. I’m ready to put a sign out reading “closed till the snow melts…..” This weather is having serious effects that will just keep getting worse…….

  10. It just took me 2 and half hours to get from Boston to home on what should be a 45 minute drive with no traffic. Traffic in the city is gridlocked to the max. An under 10 minute ride from the hospital to the parking garage in normal traffic took an hour tonight.

      1. Yup. I had to stay late to shovel the roofs, wow the snow up there was waist deep no kidding. And to boot need to drive in all week because there bussing on my line on the T and I’m not dealing with that. Even the commute this morning was a nightmare but not like tonight. They have Boston cops at every light on Melana cass blvd directing traffic. Just bad.

    2. Ugh…that is awful John. Come on down to Oliveira’s as I am here and will buy you a bowl of chowder. you have more than earned it!

      1. You’ll yell at me lol. Love there chowder and pizza. I’m less than a 5 minute ride from there.

    3. John took us four hours round trip to framingham. Ad in there and parking garage at Dana was full so they were sending to children’s

  13. From the NWS office at Taunton

    PLOWABLE SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
    ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AKIN TO SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE E HALF OF THE
    REGION BUT EXACT AXES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

    POTENTIALLY A 50-60 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION…STRONG WINDS CAN/T
    BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER…WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD
    CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO SOMETHING OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL AREAS WHERE RATIOS WOULD BE LOWER.

  14. Hopefully this will not be as bad. I said this the other day if I had the snow you guys had over the past few weeks I would be ready for spring and I am a huge snow lover.

    1. Where is the national guard I keep hearing about in Boston and surrounding towns? Equipment being hauled in from as far away as Pennsylvania I was reading last night.

            1. I know what you meant I’m beat!!! I don’t know but I heard the city just bought two melters. I think it’s all ocean bound. Quincy just started dumping in the ocean or is about to.

                2. Saw the Guard trucks in Norwell, Hingham, etc in the past 36 hours. Shoveling out cars, hydrants and larger snow removal. Not sure how much equipment and men but they are out there.

                  Vicki..I hate dumping the snow in the ocean too but right now it’s one of the few available options unless they take all down to Gillette and dump it there 🙂

  15. To me right now its just a question is it a few inches or something bigger. I think a miss is a very low probability right now.

    1. At this point anything that brings 6 inches or better is going to be very problematic. 6-10 inches in a short duration storm (say 12-18 hours) would cause havoc.

  18. I thought the slow trend towards something more ominous continued in the 00z NAM vs 18Z NAM.

    Little things like when the low emerges from NY State, around NYC.

    Just looked a little sharper still on 00z vs 18z.

    I hope we are headed for some kind of plateau on this event as far as reaching some stability on strength of system, because right now, each model run against a given model’s previous run looks better and stronger and that is concerning.

      1. Indeed …. Might be another trend with this entity is to slow its passage by us a bit more. Dont think it will completely stall with the teleconnections the way they are, but, given how fast it night explode, any slowing of its movement will not be good.

        2. That low starting out tucked right up against the Jersey shore has to be concerning for us here. And with all of that wind and cold. This is going to really get interesting.

  19. We don’t know enough about Saturday to say anything definitively. I’d say some of the models are not in line with that one Euro model run early this afternoon, and only produce a moderate snow event in our parts. Not a blizzard. Not a ton of snow. The next Euro model run will give us better guidance, I think. My guess at this point is that tomorrow we will not be talking about 1 to 2 feet of snow, blizzard conditions, or 80mph gusts. I think it’ll be more a run-of-the-mill storm around these parts, thankfully: 4-8 inches perhaps, with significant wind. In my view, the more worrisome storm is Tuesday if indeed a warmer solution happens. Too far away to forecast with any confidence. But, should a snow-to-rain scenario happen, we’re in trouble.

    1. Agree with most of what you said. At 72 hours just alerting people to a possible snow event would seem to be enought. If things start to line up overnight tomorrow night then by Friday morning I think you raise the alarm (36 hours). The only thing I disagree with is 4-8 inches over a short duration storm (if that’s what it turns out to be) would still present a problem. Cleanup would be set back a couple days…just in time for the next storm.

  21. Just following up on ML’s post about lost revenue, etc for business in the area. I know the med center has taken a hit over the last few weeks. How bad I don’t know (nor could I really say if I did) but consider we were closed for 2 full days and late starts or early release on a couple of others. That combined with the fact that we lost over 100 parking spaces have caused some to cancel and reschedule their appointments. Hopefully we get back to normal later next week.

  22. One other thing I’ve noticed is that all over the place most hydrants (despite the Guard starting to do this) are not marked or shoveled out in a lot of areas. Also many streets are knocked down or broken and several light poles have been hit too. Across the street from me (and a little bit to the right) is a bridge over the commuter rail line. Just before the bridge (on the sidewalk) is a gate that service workers for the commuter rail use to access a repair shed. Well I guess one of their plows came by today to dig out the gate and ruined not only the gate but guard rail leading up to gate….look like crap and I bet the town will pissed.

  23. A little too much caffeine tonight…I don’t if anyone has posted this but with today’s snow in much of Boston area (specifically the south shore) we’ve now had 5 straight days of some sort of snowfall. Now if it snows tomorrow night and after midnight that will make 7 days. Then with potential for a Saturday night into Sunday snowfall that would make 9 straight days!! WOW!

  24. GFS scary for Boston with 12-14. Even scarier for downeast main though….

    Definitely shows a stronger storm compared to 18z.

    Yikes.

    1. Yeah it has it’s s**t together more than the 18z . More qpf, better organization at first blush. NCEP is slow freaking slow. Want to look at 500mb.

  26. So who is right here? Eric Fisher is now downplaying the chance for big snow on Saturday/Sunday.

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 15m 15 minutes ago
    00z GFS not ideal for major weekend SNE snow, which is a good thing. Would still be very windy/cold. Some details still to be worked out.

  27. Joshua I need you to look at some of the signals the models are spitting out as they are not matching up very well with that’s being actually modeled for surface storm. You also need to understand the inherit biases each model has. GFS for example has a known bias brining in lows too far north. NAM is unreliable outside 60 hrs. Also if you look at the NWS AFD they are tossing out the GFS. Again my 2-cents.

    My first take on this is we are looking at a major storm with widespread 16-24 inches and several locations exceeding 24. Looking at wind field I am pretty confidant in reaching blizzard criteria including Boston. I think it’s wise oh TV mets to get out the info sooner rather than later.

    1. So what do you think about Eric Fisher’s tweet I just posted above? Obviously you disagree, but it seems there are widely diverging opinions on this weekend’s weather.

      1. I just think the GFS idea of a northern track is incorrect. Based on its handling the energy he is right based on the 00z run. Maybe my numbers are aggressive but they are my first thought. I think we will see the GFS change in the next 24-36 hours. In the end do I think my numbers verify, just not sure yet.

  28. I’m open to Eric’s idea.

    00z NAM, 00z GFS, 00z UKMET, 00z CMC all like the idea of the northern displacement for redevelopment. This is based on better-sampled data, so cannot be completely tossed.

    In a few minutes, the ECMWF will either join the party or become an outlier.

  31. 0z Euro is now going ballistic with the Tuesday/Wednesday storm as well. Forms a major nor’easter riding up the coast with widespread 1-2 foot snows up the Appalachians and into New England.

    This is the snowmap COMBINED with the two storms and the snow totals are epic:
    http://i.imgur.com/S6xNINM.jpg

  32. We’re not out of the woods on this yet.

    Amazing consistency on the GFS for Tuesday. I don’t think that track has shifted more than 25-50 miles either way.

  33. I think we’ll see signs of less and less impact for Saturday/Sunday. More northerly development, not less. I think 6 inches for Boston and less for communities to our south. Perhaps even less. NE Mass. may get up to a 9 inches. Tuesday worries me more given that there’s a better chance the storm is a coastal hugger or even inside runner. Given all the snow we have on roofs, etc … that would be very bad.

  34. Good morning. More model shiftorama. Sure seems like the trend is a more
    NORTHERN development, which the GFS has been hinting at all along.

    Here are the 6Z NAM and GFS snowmaps and 0Z CMC

    NAM

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021200/gem_asnow_neus_16.png

    CMC is crazy weird. Doesn’t even show a hit for Maine. Weird.

  35. I’m looking forward to the 12z EURO ….

    With the GFS and its 3 hr increments on instant weather maps, its easier to get an idea of when this thing really pops. 990mb on GFS around time it passes Cape Cod.

    Thats why the 12z EURO might be nice.

    Right now, on the 00z EURO, its around 998mb at NYC and 24 hrs later, its 963mb south of Nova Scotia. The 12z’s timing of increments should give a pressure reading closer to the storm’s passage near Cape Cod.

    1. Pretty STRONG wording there!!!

      HOWEVER, I see enough signs to give pause. In their discussion they do say:

      BUT A WORD OF CAUTION. KEY TO THIS FORECAST HOWEVER GLOOMY IT MAY SOUND ABOVE IS HOW THE LOW EVOLVES IN PROXIMITY TO S NEW ENGLAND. IF THE STORM DEVELOPS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM…THEN IMPACTS WOULD MOSTLY STAY OFFSHORE.

      That with reviewing the 6Z GFS and 6z NAM is reason enough to give pause.

      This “could” End up a little less severe than that discussion. Although I generally
      disagree with Joshua, this could end up more like what Joshua threw out
      there. Something like 6-8 inches for Boston or so. HOWEVER, it is still early and an ALL OUT BLIZZARD is STILL on the table.

      REALLY looking forward to the 12Z Runs, most especially the Euro.

      Trend is your friend and the TREND is for the major impact to be
      farther North ie Coastal Maine. 😀

      BTW Tuesday looks DANGEROUS with HEAVY SNOW transitioning to HEAVY RAIN
      and back to SNOW. What a freakin MESS!!!!!!!!!

  37. I agree with Josh and it’s just based on a hunch. We are due for a big miss and I think that comes Saturday and I’m in camp fisher if you believe I just said that lol.

    1. Agree, a MISS is NOT in the cards.

      It’s just is it 6 inches, a foot OR 2 feet. What will it be? What will it be?

  40. Hmmm Then Again, I dunno

    Here is the GFS ensemble mean for 1AM Sunday. This is frightening!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021206/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_13.png

    Hard to tell with the Euro ensemble due to 24 hr increments, but looks ominous as well.

    Euro Ensemble at 7PM Saturday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021200/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_4.png

    CMC is even more South than the rest, really croaking us

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021200/gem_mslpa_us_14.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021200/gem_mslpa_us_15.png

    CRAP!!! That does LOOK BAD and that is what the NWS seems to be the basis of
    their forecast.

    How does one forecast this. Happy I don’t have to put a forecast out there.
    I’d be shitting my pants!

  41. BZ has numbers out already, widespread 6-12″ with no plus. Area of “higher amounts possible” NE MA into coastal NH and ME

  43. Unfortunately you guys look to be in the bullseye yet again. We have said those words a lot lately. Hopefully if your getting snow up there it will only be the 3-6 inches that is projected for my area and not the foot plus.

    1. Funny a month or so ago this blog would have been lit up with comments over an inch or two now it is not even talked about ha.

  45. Guys, I think this is going to be a 6-12 almost no matter what, which in a “normal” winter is a pretty good storm. Still not buying the north lock.

  46. One more word of caution. As per that tweet and map by Jim Cantore, that
    energy is 2200 miles away in a remote area of the NorthWest Territories
    of Canada. If you think that the 6Z run has better sampled data on that THINK AGAIN!

    I hereby TOSS the 6Z NAM and 6Z GFS. It’s ONTO the 12Z Runs for ANYTHING
    MEANINGFUL, IMHO. And even those won’t be sampled all that well. We shall see.

    Time to make the donuts. Later all.

  48. Thanks, TK.

    Seriously, with all the potential snow we could have, has anybody (the state, cities, etc.) planned for a flooding potential later on? That’s not saying it will happen – but if we get a sudden and decent warmup what would we do with all the snowmelt? We can’t dump into the ocean (which I agree w/Vicki is not a good idea; but I don’t know what other choice we have) so I am just wondering. I am hoping for a gradual warm up or for some dry and seasonable days to let all the snow melt slowly or evaporate.

    1. Rainshine Pittsburgh …I believe…has a snow dragon that I need to read more about. It is my understanding it melts and treats snow to make it safe to dump. Buffalo used it. I sound hope our mayor and governor are looking to places such as buffalo for solutions they used

        1. Thanks, Vicki. Sounds like an excellent idea and if it comes to that I hope the mayor and governor do the same thing.

              1. Thanks, shotime. Instead of clearing the streets they are having the red sox equipment truck led by a flatbed carrying wally go through the city tossing balls at fans on its way to FL. Seriously??

  49. With all due to respect John and Joshua, the Baroclinicity zone will be focused further south just the like NWS is implying. I have looked at both euro and GFS ensembles and they are both further south than the op run. Sure I am probably off in what I said last night about potential for two feet but I feel very confidant in widespread 12+ inches. Every storm has trended a little north in op runs and then within 24-36 hours they have slightly changed south.

    Also keep in mind ratios will be on the order of 15:1 up to 20:1. So even less QPF still equates to significant snowfall.

    1. Hadi, the ensembles certainly paint a different picture (see post above), which means they probably have picked up on what the NWS said and you repeated above.

      ALL out Blizzard is STILL on the table, but so is a lesser impact event.

      We shall see. Many variables still in play here.

      Has there been ONE single storm this year that was nailed days before?
      I don’t think so. Loads of wiggles and waggles as we got closer to the event, even some surprises.

      We’ll just have to watch.

  50. Heard the melters out all night in Boston, removing and melting snow. It woke me up, but I completely understand that they have to prepare as if the worst will happen. There’s so little room to move around.

    Ah, let’s blame our friends up in Kimmirut (Nunavut) for the potential storm o Saturday:

    http://www.kimmirutweather.com/ [Looks like one of the inhabitants got his or her boat ready for the summer!]

    By the way, everyone should be aware of enormous icicles and their potential impact. When you walk around be sure to look up periodically. I’ve seen a couple of huge icicles come crashing down. They can be lethal.

    1. Great reminder about the icicles! My next door neighbor’s gutters are encased in some of the thickest ice dams and largest icicles I’ve ever seen. They are monsters!!!

      1. Sounds like our ice dams. We keep knocking icicles down on two roofs but cannot on the rubber roof for fear the ice will grab the rubber and pull it down.

  51. I think the 0z models are doing a pretty good job. I said yesterday I liked the 12z GFS, and the models mostly shifted in that direction last night. Early, early thoughts from me, would be 6-12″ for most. Potential for 18-24″ in Maine. High ratios for sure. I don’t disagree with the NWS thinking of 20:1. But I don’t think we’ll get enough QPF to really pile up much more than a foot. My opinion, of course.

    Btw, the 0z Euro was off the wall for the storm next week. I still favor a snowstorm with that one, but we’ll have to watch the potential for it to get messy.

  52. I was clearly wrong with today’s storm. Oh well. On to the next one which looks like a high impact storm. To what extent? That doesn’t become more clear until tomorrow but the potential is certainly there for blizzard like conditions. However, some models clearly demonstrate a northernly displacement of the developing low while others show a more southerly track. There is enough model spread to for this to be a low-medium forecast for now.

    And Hadi….You crack me up with your continuous bias for snow!!! Love it!

    1. Arod, perhaps a little aggressive with this next one, but seriously he has
      been pretty much spot on with each storm this year.

      1. Yes. We all have as every storm has nailed us!! 😀 Not a knock on Hadi at all. I enjoy his enthusiasm and passion for snow!

    3. I respectfully disagree, plenty of times I have forecasted lower numbers. This year is not the case bc I see evidence of high snow numbers and have right pretty much every storm. Do I enjoy snow yes for sure, but trust me I would not forecast it if I don’t believe it. It causes school cancellation which is a nightmare with the kids, my wife is in a high pressure job that missing works kills her. I think others will back me up 200% with my statement.

  53. I understand we need better sampling of the energy way up in Canada, but i think of greater importance is what happens to the departing storm system for tonight/tomorrow morning. That to me will have a greater impact on track and intensity of the weekend storm and that won’t be better sampled until tomorrow’s 12z runs at the earliest. Today’s runs are inconsequential IMO

  55. Morning commute wasn’t as bad today. About 35 minutes, not bad considering.
    Biggest delays: School Buses not being able to get down side streets. Some drivers
    are Freakin IDIOTS!!!! No common sense at ALL!!!!

    OH, BTW occasional SNOW GRAINS falling from the sky on the way in. 😀

    1. Idiots, for sure!
      A small school bus beeped his horn for 5 minute until my neighbor helped him by moving his car, but of course it was “not” the car (which I’ve never seen before) that was blocking half the road!
      God forbid an ambulance or fire engine has to come down the street!

    2. Btw, as much as I might downplay Danielle, with what we currently know,
      her snow map is well thought out and very reasonable. Not to say we won’t get MORE or LESS, but pretty fine map considering what we know right now.

      1. i feel like Methuen this year has gotten hammered, my dad has a runnung tally of every winter snow total from 1964!
        currently in Methuen we have 89.5 inches of fallen snow this year.

  58. I could be compleatly wrong but I just have a feeling this one is not a bigtime snow storm totals on low end. Let’s see if it trends any south by tomorrow am. It’s to the point now like ML said this is now hurting the economy in just a few weeks. Yea hardware stores making a killing but even there loosing now because they can’t keep up with the inventory . I heard insurance claims are through the roof . Probably working all night tonight , possibly more snow this weekend and maybe rain next week I just hired my neighbor to do my front farmers porch hip roof, it’s nuts.

  59. Here’s my truth about weather.

    1. If it’s frigid, I’d rather it be snowing.
    2. Snow is my favorite type of precip, second only to a warm summer rain.
    3. My FAVORITE type of weather is 75, clear blue skies.

    None of which is to say we need more snow…we’ve certainly had more than our fair share this winter.

    I do not see a miss for this weekend. A slightly lighter solution, perhaps. A complete miss? This system is simply too big.

  61. I cant help but think about this past storm and how all global models had the heaviest axis of snow on the north shore into S NH and into ME even as the storm was happening. Well, how did that work out? Further south right? Not saying the same thing will happen with this storm as every storm is different, but something to consider.

  63. Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 10m10 minutes ago
    Snowing pretty good in #Waterbury #Connecticut @NWSNewYorkNY

    JJ?

    1. This may sound crazy, but if this is what is coming with a weaker ARCTIC
      CLIPPER, what happens when the MUCH STRONG clipper approaches
      On Saturday PM/Evening? We may be in for it yet. We shall see.

  65. It is coming down hard now in Manchester CT. We are about 6 or 7 miles east of Hartford. We have a solid coating of snow already.

    1. LOL …. not at you OS ……… at the NAM.

      Unreliable model …..

      last 2 systems, at least, have been so far north of reality.

  69. Here’s what I’m taking, big picture, from both the GFS and NAM 00z runs ….

    Storm is cruising along thru NY State, then south of New England, slowly intensifying.

    As it makes the turn and gets east of Boston, it explodes and slows somewhat.

    I think we are in for one heck of a backlash in eastern Mass that the models are so far, struggling to show.

  70. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 20m20 minutes ago
    Sunday still looking brutal. Blizzard conditions are possible, very strong winds, bitter cold subzero wind chills, possible power outages.

  73. Its not really the position of the storm center that causes much less snow for our area, its the structure and overall shape the storm takes as it intensifies and goes by. The 2 main areas of heaviest precip (comma head and tail) somehow elude Boston and we get stuck in never never land dry slot. I think the NAM overdoes this BUT has some merit to what its trying to do. GFS is showing this feature as well but not as pronounced.

    1. AceMaster, it makes no sense, IMO.

      Its like the surface makes no sense to the upper features.

      The summer anology to this is …… if your close to a 588 dm ridge, have 850 mb temps of 20C and then at the surface, it shows its 60F with a soaking rainstorm.

      1. LOL, yea that would make zero sense 🙂 Point taken. We shall see. I just can’t fathom models are missing this so badly. What can we trust?

  74. The NAM CANNOT be trusted outside of 48 hours, it just cannot be trusted. The GFS has been so consistent this winter and with this storm that it is hard to ignore a more northerly lower impact solution. With that said, we have a lot of energy moving to the relatively warm Atlantic Ocean and we know what that means. I’m very excited to see what the 12z GFS has to say

    3. come on TK you more than anyone know how poorly the NAM has been this Winter and how much it struggles outside 48 hours. That doesn’t mean it can’t be right, but I wouldn’t hang my hat on anything the NAM is showing right now. Tom makes a nice point above as well.

        1. well you had me worried there for a minute. I love your style as it is similar to my own in my field of work(conservative and slow to draw final conclusions) So I get where you are coming from when you are looking at all of the data out there, especially when it is conflicting. Come to think of it, in the 5 or so years I’ve followed this blog going back to the BZ days I only recall the January 2015 Blizzard as an event you felt strong enough about to call for and get excited about a “biggie”!

  78. BTW the NAM solution for the weekend mirrors a result we had couple winters ago. That scenario is also on the table.

        1. Thats my feeling tk that north is going to get hammered with Boston/ south shore getting brushed. What’s your thoughts on that thinking .

  79. Bernie Rayno video out about an hour ago covers the “American model” and northern shift of storm. It is this site that put me onto his videos, which I find so helpful.

  83. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 20s20 seconds ago
    Nearly all recent major snow in New England heavily driven by southern feed of tropical moisture. More polar contribution this weekend.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    Meteorologically, this weekend storm is a harkening back to the olden days. Driven by lots of northern energy.

    1. Boston is in the 14-16 range on that map. South And West of the City
      in the 12-14 inch range. With the COLD and the WIND, this represents a
      very very serious storm.

      I have to add with the Arctic Air in place and that “warm” Ocean out there and with plenty of LIFT, I “could” actually see the GFS as UNDER DOING the SNOW amounts.

      This will be a SCARY EVENT!!

      1. Dumb question, on this model it shows anywhere from 10-16 inches for our local area… is this based on a 10:1 ratio? if this is the case wouldn’t the totals be higher due to “fluff”?

  87. The NAM is a mess. I don’t know what’s wrong with it, but outside 48 hours it just can’t do anything right now. 12z GFS continues to look reasonable to me, maybe slightly overdone, but I like the general idea. Not a blockbuster (for SNE at least) but a major winter storm with blizzard conditions possible due to the strong wind and cold.

      1. Overdone 12Z euro will show 2+ft of snow. This is a classic scenario for the euro to over-amplify everything

  88. Still lots of runs before Saturday pm. We shall see. I will say if it pans out crippling for lots of different reasons .

      1. Old salty I actually want it cause if this one hits I’ll have my vacation paid for courtesy of 4 snow storms.

  90. Comparing today’s 12z to ooz GFS for pressures

    4 mb lower at 12z for Cape Cod Passage (988 mb vs 992 mb) and 4 mb lower at 12z for east of Boston (974 mb vs 978 mb)

    When are we going to see the models bottom out on the intensity trend ?

  91. 12z GFS is also colder with the Tuesday/Wednesday nor’easter. That southern stream storm is progressive but loaded with QPF. Would be a heavy front end dump of snow changing to mix/rain SE areas and then back to snow. Stays all snow further inland. Widespread 6-12″+. Snow map:
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021212&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=153

    And the Euro had this one even more amplified, delivering 12-24″.

    There is literally only going to be less than 48 hours for crews to clear up from the weekend storm before this next one hits. Insanity.

  94. 12z GFS Ensembles, UKMET, and GGEM on board for a substantial hit. GGEM remains south of other guidance with heavier totals as far south as Long Island.

  95. I feel like a broken record saying it will be further south 🙂 watch the trends through tomorrow. We should have very good sampling by 00z runs if not for sure tomorrow morning runs.

  96. My wishful thinking is not looking good. Unfortunately, if we do get lots of snow this weekend followed by a heavy mix of everything Tuesday there will be casualties. Already, businesses are suffering. But this time, we are going to have calamities (more fatalities) occurring, especially if heavy rain occurs early Wednesday morning. Or, if once the warm-up happens – and it’s not that far away, folks, and I believe it will be a dramatic overshoot – melting overwhelms us all. Roof collapses and serious, dangerous flooding are likely. Flat roof schools should be warned. There are plenty of those that were built in the 50s and 60s.

  98. Braintree, weymouth, hull and quincy now dumping in ocean. permission is easily being granted and any town or city can now apply and get approved.

  99. This courtesy of Philip on the last blog:

    1. 107.6″ = 1995-96
    2. 96.3″ = 1993-94
    3. 89.2″ = 1947-48
    4. 86.6″ = 2004-05
    5. 85.1″ = 1977-78
    6. 83.9″ = 1992-93
    7. 81.0″ = 2010-11
    8. 79.2″ = 1915-16
    9. 78.0″ = 2014-15**
    10. 73.4″ = 1919-20

    ** to date

    Highly likely Boston will be at #2 on this list by end of Wednesday. The all-time record is going down big time.

  100. JR says 10-15″ for Boston and 2-3 feet for Maine…and that is assuming the storm develops further north. If it develops further south like last time, then Boston gets the 2-3 feet yet again.

    I don’t suppose there is an OTS scenario by chance?? UGH!!!!!

    1. I don’t see 2-3 feet happening in Boston with this one, even with the southerly track, though 2 feet is not out of the realm of possibility if everything comes together just right, and with high ratios. Storm is just not going to stick around long enough.

  101. Even looking at next week GFS now showing mostly snow vs. rain etc…
    Could we have tie bkizzard warnings within 48 hours. Sure can bc the wind also looks nasty on next weeks storm.

  103. Keep this date in mnd this weekend:

    Feb. 14, 1940 = 14″ for Boston and the public transit was shut down for that storm as well…a repeat for snow amount AND shutdown??

  104. Mark…Wouldn’t a southerly track bring in more moisture for Boston in spite of its progressive movement thus the 2-3 feet amount would still occur? I think that is what JR was implying.

    1. Yes, the southerly track would bring in more precip and higher amounts but I still question how eastern MA could pull off 2-3 feet. It would really have to dig, explode sooner and further SW off the NJ coast, and also slow its forward progression. I suppose at this point, in this winter, anything is possible!

  105. i just hope that the MBTA works all this crap out since i need to use it on tuesday-friday to get to work, If not, I might be calling in on my first day that i can’t get in

    1. I will be working the entire weekend (Saturday evening and all day Sunday). If those 12″+ amounts are realized I don’t know if I am going to be able to get to work…even by taxi (another option) let alone the MBTA.

  106. Sombody just approached me and gave numbers for next Tuesdays storm and it was well over a foot . Said they heard it from under ground weather which they said has been spot on. My response lets get through the weekend.

    1. From what I have been hearing, that storm is considerably “warmer” compared to what we have been experiencing. Snow to rain to flash freeze set up?

  107. Surface low in a good snow producing position at 72hrs on the 12z euro. Looks to be sub 980 mb due east of boston

  108. From American Weather, 12z Euro:
    0.5″ QPF east of I-91
    0.75″+ QPF inside 495
    Near 1″ QPF Boston, Cape Ann, Cape Cod
    That is good for 8″+ east of 91, 12″+ east of 495.
    Maine is crushed again with up to 2 feet.

  113. EURO is a MONSTER HIT!!!

    OMG, I cannot wrap my hands around this at ALL.

    Absolutely mind boggling!!! UNPRECEDENTED!!! HISTORICAL CRAP COMING DOWN!!!!

    Went home for lunch and there was a NATIONAL GUARD truck parked at the local
    Dunkin Donuts. Don’t see that very often!!!

  116. This is quick, because I am working…

    NAM delivers 0.4 or so to Boston, GFS 0.6, ECMWF 0.8. I mentioned yesterday that they system was going to be fighting dry air in place and the dry air it was pulling down from the northwest. I think on the W and WNW side of this intense low precip will not be as much as feared. Tee real danger in this storm is going to be winds and depending on timing coastal onshore water issues.

  117. The 12z ECMWF was not really a monster hit. Lot of misinformation out there. The storm was a monster. But QPF was an inch or less everywhere except the Cape, where it was slightly over.

    1. I think the references were more towards the strength of the storm itself. I’m not sure why the models show such low QPF with this system given the positioning of the low, strength, etc. Like I said before, the atmosphere wants it to snow here. After today we have now seen snow fall in eastern ma for six straight days!, with the potential for that streak to continue if it snows during the wee hours of the morning tomorrow. One thing I have noticed, at least on the GFS is that the system starts to gather more moisture sooner than it depicted a day or so ago, but it has yet to translate into any big QPF amounts once it hits the open waters. I’m not sure the models have quite caught on to the QPF amounts yet as they just started to catch onto the idea of the storm itself.

      1. Low QPF is all to do with the fact that it’s a northern stream system. The low placement looks perfect, but in reality the main snow shield is pushed north into Maine. If anything, I’d expect a trend lower on QPF, similar to what we saw with today’s system, which was also straight from the northern stream. I could be wrong though of course, I’m no expert.

        Next Tuesday/Wednesday is a different story. That one will have Gulf moisture. There are some indications that it may be more of a mid-Atlantic storm, but I think we get it pretty good with that one.

  118. I agree with JMA. This is not really a classic setup for major SNE snow. It’s a purely northern stream system, that will be dragging down dry air with it. It will redevelopment and explosively deepen in the Gulf of Maine, where it will gather moisture. But that’s of little consequence to us. By that time, it’s all gone except the wind, which could be significant. In fact, looking at the setup and the 12z models today, I think 12″ will be the limit for most places in Mass., except for maybe the immediate Boston area and especially up towards Cape Ann, where there could be more. Many places under a foot. And it will be fluffy snow. Generally a moderate impact event, but compared to what we’ve seen this winter it may not seem that bad.

    1. Some of our biggest snowstorms in the past have been clippers diving down and exploding off the coast, so we’ll have to agree to disagree there

      1. This isn’t a traditional clipper system. Also saw a tweet above from Matt Noyes talking about copious southern stream moisture in previous systems. Not sure the point he is trying to make, but that has not been the case with some our big west to east producers this winter.

    2. The impact is going to be more than moderate just because of the amount of snow already sitting on the ground and rooftops, combined with wind and coastal flooding all should be prepared for significant adverse impacts. I was just getting at the snowfall amounts may not be as much as is being advertised on some outlets.

        1. I don’t disagree with that (as to Go For Snow’s original response), but it’s all to do with where they develop. Remember a couple days ago, when the GFS showed today’s storm as a monster blizzard? It developed the low way down south, off the Delmarva. And that’s pretty much what’s happening, except the low is way too far east in this one. Those setups can produce big snow. But a low that develops right at our latitude, like this one probably will? Not a classic snowstorm setup. That’s how Maine gets their big ones. If this low starts to develop further south, then we will be in for it, so that’s the trend to watch- not how strong the low is, but where it is.

          As to the impacts, it is true that since there’s been so little melting, pretty much any 6″+ snowfall is a major impact event now.

  120. I was going to echo something mentioned above …..

    For me personally in Marshfield,

    With 30 inches of snow on the ground, whether Marshfield gets 6″, 16″ or 26″ more, the impact of snow starts at the next snow flake. Thus, I’m not too focused on which one of those 3 it is. (I do suppose owners of homes and businesses with flat roofs may care more which one it is).

    The wind : It looks like a significant impact to me, whether its blowing around all the snow or tree damage and the resulting tidal surge, (dependent on wind direction at the time of the greatest winds.)

    2. Also agree…it’s something I mentioned earlier that even 4-8 inches would have a big impact at this point (altho less so that’s on the long holiday weekend).

  121. We are due to miss a big one and this very much may be that one. I’ll take six if that happens over 12-14. Everybody’s had enough. I think we get snow but just not that big punch like the last 3 weeks, I mean it has to end at some point. Either way I’ll be working so rooting for less.

  122. I also do not agree with moderate impact for this event, except for the lone fact that this is occurring on the weekend. While yes, this is not going to be the biggest storm of the season snow wise, even 0.8-1″ QPF equates to at 15″ of snow with ratios. Couple this with 50mph winds, blizzard conditions, frigid temps, and severe blowing and drifting, this is serious stuff. And that’s not even considering that there is three feet of snow and huge piles already on the ground in many areas!

  123. I’m actually relieved at seeing the Euro model. Qpf has come down from yesterday. Moreover, initially a lot of snow that falls from the sky will not hit the ground. Too dry. Furthermore, dry air will eat away around the fringes of the precipitation shield. I am much less concerned about Sat/Sun, which will in all likelihood not be a major snow producer. More than what I thought early this morning, but I think Boston will not get more than 8 inches of fluffy snow, while Cape Ann may get a foot. The real problem is Tuesday/Wednesday. Storm has more potential to wreak havoc in SNE rather than Maine. If there is a mix or changeover, that could be catastrophic.

  124. In reading comments, I am interpreting that some judge impact based on how much it snows in a storm …

    It could snow 2″ from this storm and when the wind is done with all the current snow cover, people may be reshoveling 4 ft drifts from their driveways and plows clearing that from streets again.

    By the way, FWIW, btwn the initial snows on the front end and the wrap around stuff, I’d say a good 6-10″ Worcester to Providence eastward, with increasing amts as you head northeastward.

    2. That is not the ECWMF snow map. That is being manipulated by the the purveyors of EUROWX.com. The ECWMF produces 1.5 QPF from all systems over the next 7 days at Boston and the ECMWF only has 10:1 snow tool algorithm. At 24-30″ in Boston EUROWX.com are using a 15:20:1 ratio for all snow that falls over the next 7 days in Boston.

      1. JMA – that map has Boston in the 21-24″ range over the next 7 days which seems reasonable to me given the raw model output is 1.5″ QPF. That assumes about a 15:1 ratio average – maybe a bit high but not all that much.

        I understand your point though that these generated snow maps need to be used with caution, and are more often than not overinflated.

  126. Full potential hits from both of these storms would break the spine of many communities…I can’t even imagine what will happen to all transportation and the MBTA

  128. I guess Inwill disagree with impact, Inwill it will tend wetter as we get closer. Fluff factor will be huge and ratios will huge. I am sticking with 12+ for many eastern areas. We shall find out soon enough. I can gtd you it won’t be 6 inches or 8 inches.

    John think you have made your point clear over and over.

    2. Hadi with no disrespect how can you guarentee those numbers just curious. My call is I just have a very strong hunch. Good day.

    1. that is also the case for this weekend storm,, watch most west of worcester does not get anything more than 8 inches

  131. Walsh said snow removal is top priority in boston right now with the guard being deployed into the neighborhoods tonight .

    2. Whether we reach blizzard criteria remains to be seen. The winds will defiantly be strong but how far those winds penetrate inland is always the question with these things. I could see blizzard conditions, but not a blizzard per say. I see he has 6-12″ for most of the eastern sections of our area. Highest amounts way way up in Maine. Looks like a blend of the GFS/NAM.

      1. IF that comes to be, Blizzard conditions will be easy to attain.
        EVEN if it’s not snowing at a 1/4 mile vis rate, with the WIND
        vis will be under 1/4 mile.

        1. Blizzard conditions yes, but actual blizzard? Those are so difficult to come by, especially away from the immediate coastline.

          1. YES, we may get an ACTUAL Blizzard this time instead of an IMPOSTER! This is whether we
            get 8 inches, a foot or a foot and 1/2.

    2. Those are some strong gusts. I will say, even during the blizzard, the wind did not seem bad at all, at least just inland. The coast was a totally different story though.

      1. The wind was PUNEY in BOSTON during the so called blizzard.
        South Shore/Cape different. This time BOSTON is NOT
        spared.

        1. How so OS? Different wind direction? I saw maps like this for the blizzard but those winds never made it more than 5-10 miles inland.

          1. I think Logan had one peak gust of 46 or so.
            Most of the time peak winds were in the 30s.
            Didn’t beak 40 at my house.

            It just was WIMPY WIND For a Blizzard if you ask me. Now that was up here, NOT South Shore and the Cape where it WAS a different story.

      3. I see pretty decent hits in all of those, but i’ll go back to something i said earlier today about the structure of this storm as its rapidly intensifying. I can see this area missing the main thrust of the storm (comma head) as its not fully developed until its to the north and east but croaks coastal Maine at its strongest point. I think this is why QPF isn’t as high even with such a large strong storm close by. We get shadowed in the center of the comma for a large duration of this.

  141. I like the 4-6 range for boston. Snow is falling good now in the city . I just salted everything.

  142. Harvey just posted this. Looks like HADI may have been spot on again.

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 3m3 minutes ago
    Blizzard Watch for portions of the area in MA until 7:00pm Sunday. #mawx

  143. Well, they must be thinking at least 6-8″ or they wouldn’t have issued a watch. How much above that we go is the question to answer now

  150. Sometimes this place reminds me of a school classroom when the teacher leaves to go to the office and is gone for more than 10 minutes… 😛

    Working on a new blog, with current thoughts, based on the best use of meteorology I can use. Might take a little while as I am getting caught up on things in-house as I do this.

    Just spent an hour cutting through a plow-packed 6 foot snow bank to open access to a sidewalk. 🙂

    1. Exactly …. that’s why, given the pre-existing conditions on the ground and given the wind potential, I don’t think the amount of snow is as relevant as usual.

    4. Everyone here is pretty much aware of the meteorological definition of a blizzard. What I can’t believe is that it is up. Seems like an early call.

  152. Fwiw…Bri Eggers has 12″+ for Boston BUT she expects 4-6″ already on the ground before Saturday ends. She kept emphasizing to make any Valentine plans as early in the evening as possible.

    My issue is 4-6″ a bit much for Saturday?

  153. Do you guys thinking there is a chance this storm will intensify little south delivering us 1 to 2 feet of snow? Or that is out of the question now

    1. Nothing would surprise me. If it does outperform, it would be for a very narrow part of the viewing area as have most of the storms in this crazy stretch. Boston and immediate south shore have outperformed on every forecast thus far.

    1. That’s 10-14 inches ALL over Central to Eastern MA and 14-18 inches
      near the coast right through Boston!!!

      So yeah, that blizzard watch is NOT FOR ACCUMULATION!

  157. Bri Eggers has fine tuned her snowfall map: 12-18″ for Boston and eastern sections.

    Harvey and Eric: 12″+ for now.

  159. Truth be told, no blizzard watch or warning is for snow accumulation. 🙂

    But since we are talking accumulation, in my conservative style I’ll be starting at 8+ for anywhere east of Worcester County.

  160. Wouldn’t give the 18z too much credit.

    I’m looking for all the 6z runs. That’s where I think I can start to believe in amounts.

    1. Well, I just checked and Boston has now set a record for most snowfall in the month of February = 41.5″* breaking the old record of 41.3″ in 1969.

      Any thoughts as to what the “final” total for the month will be???????

      UGH!!!!!!

  162. the blizzard we had to start out this active weather pattern, I had alot of wind ,but thats probably because billerica is a giant hill

  164. Seeing how we have been in the cross hairs so much in the last few weeks I don’t feel this will be a miss and Hadi might be low in her calculations. Of course this is JMHO as I rely on you all to inform us with out the hype, thanks!

      1. Funny u mention that, Hadi, not sure if u remember back to the BZ blog days, but when I used to just follow it I remember u having a little fun with some of the posters about pretending to be a girl

  166. Sorry Hadi I do know you are a guy and remember that from the BZ blog so can I use Ace Masters reasoning How about, I was refering to the storm kinda sort of, my cat was helping, I had snow blindness, my back hurts from shoveling!……. can I call a friend?

  167. Thanks to you all for the cool blogging and comments. I really enjoy it and also it is very cool to be the best informed person in my circle as far as the weather goes!

    🙂

  169. I’m telling you I have never seen boston traffic this bad. It’s worse than last night. I’m in south boston not moving for like 20 minutes now .

  170. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 14m14 minutes ago
    According to @NWSBoston and @NOAANCDC, Boston has never had 2 blizzards verify since records began for such things in 1950.

    1. NWS mention that as well. IF The low level features get captured by the upper low, they said it could be a much LONGER EVENT!

  172. From NWS at Taunton

    VERY ROBUST VERTICAL
    THAT MAY BE MORE TRULY VERTICAL THAN SLANTWISE AS UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 9C/KM. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD MID LVL
    DEFORMATION AND COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT…AS THE WATER/LAND
    DIFFERENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS STORM. PLENTY OF VENTING ALOFT WITHIN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A 120KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE BACKSIDE.

    Do I read that to mean OCEAN ENHANCEMENT once again not only possible, but
    highly likely?

    2. I’ve boiled this down to a few very simple observations..

      -Extraordinary cold swirl over a warm ocean. (relative)
      -Wind/fetch etc…..
      -Models have generally underdone overrunning and coastal front enhancement

      Why would this one do anything but overperform like many of the others knowing above.

      B.T.W…..

      Here’s what has my attention the most in NWS:

      THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE
      UPPER LVL CUTOFF WHICH MAY REACH BELOW 500DM AT H5 WILL ACTUALLY CATCH THE LOW LVL FEATURE.

      If above happens, watch out.

      2. I am so good I wrote about this yesterday….or I just talk out my butthole in order to sound smarter than I am. Jury is still out but as always king climate and mother nature win!

          1. I feel like as time as passed the a hass become a hard a and when I was younger it was pronounced with a soft a.

  174. We just missed a big one today; however, we won’t be so fortunate come Sat pm – Sunday noontime. I see widespread 12-18+ east of Worcester with locally 2 feet in areas just north and east of Boston. Also, Tuesday/Wednesday’s storm appears colder than previous runs limited any mixed precip to the immediate shoreline, Cape and Islands. This is unbelievable!

    1. I might add that areas just northwest of the coastal front could also experience locally 20 or more inches of snow and yes Ocean Enhancement is very likely.

    1. We typically do agree Hadi! 😀 I wasn’t insulting you at all so please don’t take offense. I think your analysis of meteorology is typically spot on and I admire your enthusiasm and passion for winter storms.

        1. That would be nice :D. As much as I enjoy blockbuster winter storms, I wouldn’t be opposed to 70 and sunny.

  176. We have bee hearing an extraordinary about of Planes flying overhead.
    Mrs. OS is summizing people are getting the HELL out of TOWN NOW while
    they can. 😆

  177. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 15m15 minutes ago
    Boston has officially broken its record of snowiest Feb of all time! 0.9″ snow today = 42.2″ for the month. Previous record = 41.6″ 2003

  178. Curious…do we have it worse this winter than Buffalo? I consider that place my personal hell so curious.

    2. Well Buffalo is at 85 inches (well before any today) and we’re at 78+ inches.
      We are catching up fast!!!

  179. Well, here’s a new wrinkle! Hadn’t heard this before. This is from NWS Upton.
    Perhaps it only applies to their area? Don’t know

    LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW STILL A
    POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH IT…ENHANCING LIFT.

    How did Mr. Norlun get introduced for this storm?

    1. I tried to find it on the surface reflection. NOT THERE.

      I guess they think it is a subtle trough back to the parent clipper until
      the redevelopment really gets going? Can anyone see that?

      What is UPTON thinking? Anyone?

  180. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1m1 minute ago
    Less sexy record also set today: Most consecutive days in a row with >0.5″ of snow. 6 straight now in Boston. #snangry

    1. O.S.

      And another underplayed story IMO and that’s that we’re like 10 degrees below average for the month. That’s just nuts. Let’s hope we make up for it in April with some 70’s instead of 50’s.

  181. I see much talk about snow here and I know this board it filled with snow lovers as opposed to weather enthusiasts, but their should be greater focus placed on wind and coastal impact issues than snow with this system and I feel the obsession with snow totals buries the lead with this storm.

    2. The wind gusts here in CT are going to be the bigger deal as only expecting a moderate 3-6 inches of snow.

    3. In fairness, the records that are being broken are primarily tied to snowfall – those are deservedly grabbing headlines and focus.

      Also, there is a bit of crying wolf on recent storms with less than advertised winds away from the coast.

      This situation may be different, but for some it has been all about the snow.

  182. Milton has declared a state of emergency. The National Guard are coming to help clear the roads, find the fire hydrants, etc.

  184. I am in the middle. I hate snow…a lot…but try not to complain. This is NE and it’s going to snow and I accept winter. I don’t even mind the big storms I just wish they were (1) spaced out every few weeks and (2) came with several days of above freezing sunny days. For me this is too much but I guess I will appreciate summer more this year.

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