Weekend Update #1

290 Comments

1:05AM

SUMMARY…
Doing some fine-tuning regarding the weekend storm.
Winter storm warning for the entire WHW forecast area 3PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
Blizzard warning for southeastern NH and eastern MA counties 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
The evolution of the weekend storm is still expected to be the same as previously discussed as a clipper low pressure system tracks east southeastward from the Great Lakes to near southern New England Saturday with a first area of snow developing. The system will then redevelop just southeast of New England Saturday night into Sunday before moving away. After a lull in snow over parts of the region especially eastern MA and RI Saturday night into the early hours of Sunday while snow likely continues in southeastern NH, back-lash snow, increasing wind, and falling temperatures will become the story of the second part of the storm Sunday morning across the region. Conditions improve later Sunday but bitter cold and gusty wind will continue, along with blowing snow, and this will continue into Monday. The next storm threat late Tuesday to early Wednesday will result from a fast-moving low pressure system likely to pass offshore of New England. Leaning toward a light to moderate snow event from this but plenty of time to work out details. More dry and cold weather is expected later next week.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows from -15 deep valleys to +10 coast. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing west to east afternoon with accumulating up to 3 inches. Highs in the 20s. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapering off in RI and MA but continuing in southeastern NH evening, then redeveloping all areas overnight. Additional accumulation greater than 3 inches southeastern NH, under 3 inches elsewhere. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind variable becoming NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, heaviest in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Blizzard conditions in the warning area. Snow ending west to east afternoon with thinning clouds and some sun emerging. Additional accumulation 2 to 4 inches south and west of Boston, 4 to 8 inches from Boston north. Total storm accumulation 5 to 10 inches south and west of Boston and 10 to 15 inches from Boston north. Significant snow drifts. Temperatures falling through the 10s. Wind NE to N then eventually NW, 15-35 MPH with gust 45-55 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts 55-65 MPH coastal areas.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Morning snow. Afternoon clearing. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.

290 thoughts on “Weekend Update #1”

  1. TK, thank you. Hadn’t been thinking about the snow drifts. I’ve been focused on temps which just look mean. Ugh! Time to broker a deal among the snow, wind and temperature gods. Thanks again for the thoughtful work.

    1. A very very harsh stretch of Winter weather. About as bad, or good depending on preference, as it gets. 1978 Blizzard was still worse, overall, as a storm than anything we have seen yet, regarding impact. But this stretch of weather tops just about anything we’ve had in any Winter.

      1. Agree totally. For a single storm nothing tops the 78 storm, but for a stretch of Winter with this much snow this fast, unprecedented. Historical Nothing BEATS this. NOTHING.

  4. My prioritized concern list :

    1) wind/arctic air temps/power issues (combo)

    2) coastal high tide issues

    3) snowfall

    1. I need to do some preparation today …..

      Thinking a few more bundles of wood, in case we need the fireplace to provide some warmth.

      Driving around Marshfield, there are many pine trees with a lot of snow on them already from the most recent storm. This is true on one of our major roads, rte 3A, where the power lines are just below these trees. And, this evenings 2-4 inches may fall at temps near 30F, so that’ll be there when the 50 and 60 mph wind gusts arrive tomorrow.

      1. My wife’s back is killing her, so I hit the super market last
        night instead of this morning. It wasn’t bad at all. Stocked up.
        We went out the night before and purchased 3 extra blankets, just in case. We’re as ready as we can be. Just hoping we don’t lose power.

        We did NOT lose power during the blizzard of 78 and I have
        NEVER EVER witnessed such strong winds during a snow
        storm, so I am hopeful we don’t lose it. ALL flash lights have
        fresh batteries installed.

        1. I hope your wife’s back feels better soon !!

          I dont remember if we lost power or not in 78. I’m inclined to think we did not because I dont remember the house getting cold during that whole event.

    1. Hard to disagree with that snow map. Unless there’s a surprise, that’s how it should play out.

      OMG on that wind.

      Midweek gonna get us.

      Off to rake my roof. arghhhhhhhh.

      1. Had my back of the house very low pitched almost flat
        20×30 foot roof cleared the other day. It had 3-4 feet of
        snow on it and forming GINORMOUS icicles. Good luck with
        the roof.

      2. Good idea retrac. Maybe a lot of this wont go on the roof this time with the wind. I spent several hours chiseling the ice dams yesterday. At this point all I have is just ice in the gutter itself but it took a lot of hard work yesterday to get there. We are driving to SC today and leaving at 10. Hoping to miss this and get far enough south before it gets bad.

    2. http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrBT8aHN99UqMcAHifBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTE0cWE1YXJkBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1RBVVMwOTVfMQ–/RV=2/RE=1423943687/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.erh.noaa.gov%2fbox%2fclimate%2fpns%2fDEC9_2005.txt/RK=0/RS=HF_bU9p2gZrsDcUUGUSXUqGgklI-

      A rare event this was and it certainly doesnt mean it will happen this time … Here’s a wind recal from 12/9/05 wind another system bombed as it passed by and cold NW winds came in on the backside of the storm.

      3. Thanks Tom. Remember that storm well. We had thunder snow. Don’t recall losing power. There was a dec 9 a few years prior where we did lose power

    1. Thanks OS !

      Our town has had 2 recent multi-day power outage events ….. Irene (2-3 days) and Nemo (3-5 days)), so I sense that it is on everyone’s mind down here.

      The extra concern is the temps in this case.

      1. Not to be alarmist, but with the temps, any power outage
        IF NOT MANAGED properly, could be life threatening.

      1. Yup, that 12z and 15z frames have been so consistent for days.

        Thats 7am and 10am. Tide may not drop off much for a few hrs after high tide at 7:30 am.

        The other thing that I see is the shape of the wind contours (they funnel right towards eastern Mass), and the fetch (from easternmost Maine to east coastal Mass).

        Thankfully, the wind previous to those 2 time frames isnt bad.

        Will the surface wind be NNW, N or NNE ???? That will make a big difference, I think, in terms of surge.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    It’s hard to believe that in a little over a month it will be spring. Usually I start to get tired of winter by now and get excited about spring. Well, I think most everyone wants spring now – but it’s hard to get excited about spring right now. We have to just get through the remnants of the past few storms and this storm and the next, and maybe the next . . . hopefully winter will loosen up its grip on us in the next few weeks!

    Happy Valentine’s Day to all!

  15. Does it EVER FREAKIN END????????????????????????

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 9m9 minutes ago
    We must get thru this storm. However, for next week the area that I am most worried about for a snowstorm is….New England..

    1. Some days you are the bug…and some days you are the windshield. We have been the bug for too long now ha.

  17. Given this morning’s current temps, this will sound somewhat silly …..

    In SE Mass, how much afternoon and evening front end snow occurs, I think, is somewhat important in connection with how mild the boundary layer can get with the winds initially S and SE. My weather channel local forecast, which defers to Plymouth, says it will be 30F by late afternoon and hold near that thru early evening ….

    How much snow sticks to and accumulates on the trees will be interesting to watch.

    1. Tom last night, Eric said High temp today would be 20.

      Not for Nothing with today’s temps, I am wondering IF we don’t
      get Ocean enhancement with the front end punch from winds off
      the water from the SouthEasterly direction? Something to watch.

  18. As I mentioned earlier about the next snow threat 6z GFS wants to bring 6-10 inches of snow across SNE. This storm will different than the ones we have had as it will pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture as it rides of the coast.
    Way too early and this thing COULD change but interesting for the last several runs of the GFS it has shown some kind of accumulating snow for SNE.

    1. Oh boy, thanks JJ, I didn’t realize it was showing that much, I thought it would be more a mid Atlantic storm

  20. Currently my county is under a winter weather advisory. Its not the snow here in CT that will be the big story even though the storm will produce moderate amounts 3-6 west of I-91 6-10 east of I-91 but rather the wind and that snow is going to be blowing around big time overnight tonight and tomorrow.

  22. I believe someone posted yesterday that No Way the season snowfall record
    is broken this year. Really. It’s going DOWN! Count on it.

    1. Additionally, the satellite representation of this entity looks impressive this morning.

      It really has come from the arctic. So used to seeing these things come down thru the northern plains or south-central Canada, etc. But not this thing. The angle of its approach is really sharp.

  24. I did ask TK would be Boston come close to or break the snowiest winter of all time. He did not think so.
    Just think only 5.5 inches of snow fell before this stretch of winter weather with storm after storm.

  25. What’s Logan at? 78″? So say Logan gets 12″ this storm, 12″ next week. That’s 102.” What’s the record, 107? We can squeak out 6″ before all is said and done

  26. I think the record is within reach for Boston. I’d say 8-10″ for the city from this storm, and probably another 8-10″ midweek, although that’s a very early guess. And beyond that, there’s a whole month+ to go, and I remain unconvinced of a major pattern change.

    I continue to feel this storm will mainly under-perform, however. Dry air will be a major issue. I bet we see the 12z NAM and GFS back off some. I wouldn’t be surprised to see places southwest of Boston, down towards the Charlie hole, end up with only 3-6″ total. Even Boston should stay a couple inches under a foot I think. There’s a lot more risk of this greatly under-producing than over-producing.

    2. The record is within reach, but I think the next three, and probably final three, storm threats in this siege will probably come in a little less than expected for the majority of the area.

      But who knows for sure yet? Nobody.

    1. OUGHT OH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      IF that 20:1 ratio Verifies then we is in a SHITLOAD of trouble folks.

      Look at this GFS QPF MAP. Boston area bulls eye of 1.0-1.25 inches.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

      Figure just 1 inch at 20:1, yup that 20 MORE inches of SNOW on top of what we have. 1.25 inches and it’s 25 inches

      OK what about 6Z NAM qpf.

      .75-1 inch.

      .75 inch at 20:1 is 15 more inches
      1 inch at 20:1 is 20 more inches.

      Not sure what the Euro qpf is.

    2. 20:1 is really difficult to achieve for a sustained period of time. That is 90% above Climo at Boston. They are applying it to the early snowfall but not the entire storm. I think this method is far superior to the Kuchera method, but it has flaws. 14:1-16:1 is a better storm average for Boston because ratios will vary throughout the duration and as TK noted flake size will come into play.

      1. No they are also applying it to tomorrow as well.

        TIGHT W-E GRADIENT OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. AVERAGE 0.3-
        0.4 OVER AREAS ENCOMPASSED IN THE BLIZZARD…WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.1-
        0.2 FOR LOCALES W. SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 20:1. SO EXPECTING 6-8
        INCHES E…WITH ONLY 2-4 W. AGAIN A SHARP W-E GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.

        They said 19:1 to 20:1 for phase 1 and 20:1 for the rest of it
        using COBB

        1. I’m not saying they are right and you are wrong, just
          reporting what the NWS service said.

          I understand and appreciate what you are saying.

          btw, after viewing and reading the power point, I thought you would be much happier with this method over the Kuchera method.

          Thanks

          1. I said it was far superior than the Kuchera method. I just don’t work from any one method. Blind faith in any single method is fools gold for a foolish forecaster.

            1. Oh yeah, understand that for sure.

              Nice to know at least there is a better method out there than what we have seen.

          1. They can’t be. Because their max accumlatuon at Boston is 14″. That would mean they are taking the are EC QPF amounts and applying 20:1. If they blended GFS NAM and EC at 18-20:1 they would be at 17-20″ at Boston.

                2. Understood. Thanks for checking up on it.

                  So we’ll figure an average of about 15:1 to be more reasonable.

                  Many thanks for your input. Hope it’s indoor soccer.

  29. See no reasons to change going forecast
    10-14″ North and East of Boston
    9-12″ South and East of Boston
    7-10″ west of 128 to Worcester
    3-6″ west of Worcester

    In all cases the further east you are in each region then the more for likely you are to be at topof the range.

    Starts after 2pm. Light snow. Lots of dry air. DPs are below zero. Storm is in 2 phases. First one is light. No bust complaints! Patience. Sunday blowing snow. Sustained winds 35-45mph at coast and gusts to 65mph. Sun by late day even east!

  31. BTW Boston NEXRAD composite display is showing SNOW in the area already.
    Of course what it is seeing is aloft, probably just in the clouds, but it’s the first
    Sign of the approaching Snow.

    1. Composite Reflectivity

      This display is of maximum echo intensity (reflectivity) measured in dBZ from all four radar “tilt” angles, 0.5°, 1.45°, 2.40°, and 3.35°. This product is used to reveal the highest reflectivity in all echoes. When compared with Base Reflectivity, the Composite Reflectivity can reveal important storm structure features and intensity trends of storms.

      The maximum range of the “short range” composite reflectivity product is 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location. This view will not display echoes that are more distant than 124 nm, even though precipitation may be occurring at greater distances.

    1. Yeah that happens a lot. When Gore was doing the global warming circuit it was always snowy and cold. Irony for sure!

  36. I agree with JMA on the snowfall ratio subject. No one method is going to be perfect. The atmosphere is simply too complex.

    1. I never heard of the Cobb method until today.

      Amazing what we learn on this Blog!! Truly!!

      Best there is for sure.

      AND Many thanks TK

      What’s your call for Boston?

      Not a range, a call.

      10? 11? 12? 13? 14?

      I say 15. 😀

  37. A couple of weeks ago, someone posted that the long-range models predicted that February, 2015 could rival February, 1934’s all-time cold monthly average. What is that record of 1934 and are we close to that record through 14 days of February, 2015?

    Very cold week ahead. -13 in East Taunton this morning.

    1. Eric Fisher pointed that out last night.

      He said we’ll make a run at it, but fell short of predicting we would do it.

    2. Boston’s average temp for February 1934 was 19 which was 11 below the climate average of 30 at the time.

    2. I think it was something like 12.4 Degrees below normal??
      Let me see IF I can find it while I wait on the NAM.

  39. We have Dinner reservations for 7:45 PM tonight.
    We’re going. I don’t give a Rat’s Ass if it’s Snowing.
    As long as there isn’t that Facuckta Strong wind with it, we’ll be fine.
    My car is Outstanding in the snow with front wheel drive. Best snow
    vehicle I have ever owned. Just a simple Nissan Altima.

  40. NWS is gambling a little with their periodic snowfall accumulation break-down. They make mention of a lull in the precipitation around midnight but I believe they may be underestimatnig the impact of this lull for at least PORTIONS of the region. The area that is the least likely, IMO, to see a longer-lasting lull is north of Boston from northern Essex County into southeastern NH, which is where the heaviest totals were expected anyway. This same area probably gets the heaviest of the back-lash snow during Sunday morning. The other wild card is the end of it all on Sunday. Tough call between advancing very dry air behind the storm that will try to eat away the western edge of the precipitation while the precipitation shield itself is trying to expand due to the storm deepening. Which one gains the upper hand the longest?

    And yes I believe Boston will see the sun shining, at least partially, before sunset on Sunday.

  42. Early indication from the 12Z NAM => Back off from the snow in the Boston Area.
    Waiting for final results. Did someone call that? 😀

  43. Really strange. I roof raked after every storm…have a two story so the most I can get is the first foot or two and the gutters. I still somehow managed to get a few minor ice dams.

    1. The persistence of the cold probably had something to do with it. We don’t often get the frequency of snow we have along with the sustained cold, while we have warm bubbles inside the homes melting things slowly but it being cold enough along the edges not to melt the ice dams. Our 32+ episodes have been fleeting and very sparse.

      1. Yeah true. As I have said before I wouldn’t mind the snow so much if we had some above freezing days consistently. I fear in typical NE fashion we will go from this to 50 and rainy and cause all sorts of problems.

        1. One of these storms in the string is going to end up having rain with it. I fear a little bit for the system the last week of February doing that (around February 26).

    2. Some major ice dams here the whole length of the back gutter area. Will be putting out the long tubes (cut off tights actually) of calcium chloride every couple of feet early this after. Had a little water inside the other day. Now that the weather is colder the leaking has stopped for the time being. Also bought a couple of 18 foot electric coil heaters but I don’t they’ll do much good at this point…we shall see.

  45. After 12z runs it’s time to shift into short-range guidance mode to see how they perform this time. They have done a decent job with the rapidly-deepening lows this season.

    A couple of them already are showing a very significant precipitation lull across most of eastern and central MA and into RI and parts of CT the lasts anywhere from 6 to 9 hours from late evening through the pre-dawn hours.

  48. Here is the NAM snow Map! WOW! AM I ever SURPRISED! I mean SURPRISED!!!
    Caught me with my pants down for sure! WOW!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    Although our storm hasn’t formed yet, we are SO close, the NAM “should” be on
    top of things now AND perhaps it is.

    Do we have a BUST? IF the GFS follows suit, then yes.

    WHAT IF GFS still delivers the GOODS? Then what????????

    IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!

    What WILL it do? What WILL it do?

  49. Why, with the NAM, does it seem to jump the surface low so far east of Cape Cod, when the upper 500mb feature seems to track as it does.

    I dont understand why the low would get such eastward momentum or displacement or redevelop that far east. Seems to me, it should get kept a little closer to the coastline ????????

    1. I think the NAM has the right idea but may be a little TOO in love with it. Maybe not quite to that extreme on the jump eastward, yet in the ballpark. I’m going to hold on changing any snow amounts for the moment and re-evaluate after the remainder of the 12z guidance. Basically the call after that is going to be the final one with only now-casting tweaks to come.

  50. Well, the NAM definitely backed way off, even more than I thought. Makes me concerned that even I will be too high on my numbers. The lull is going to be very significant. In a sense this reminds me of the blizzard a few weeks back. Maine is like we were then: guaranteed mega jackpot. But we’re like NYC was: over-promised, under-delivered. All about where the low is forming. Too far north and east. Not enough time to get the snow back to us.

    1. A very good observation. Though not the same animal, similar enough that your reasoning is quite valid. You have a knack for catching these small details that will serve you well.

    2. That is IF the NAM verifies. At least to now, the GFS wants to place it
      closer to the coast. Like I said above, I WILL concede IF the GFS follows suit.

      AND, that would be a GOOD thing.

      I just can’t take this model Flipfloporama!

      Don’t tell me one thing and then 6 hours later tell me something else!
      I CAN’T take that.

      IF it’s going to snow it’s going to snow. IF NOT it’s NOT.

      I just WANT to KNOW one way or the other!! SNOW is imminent and the models don’t know WTF is going on!!! GEEZ!!!!! I CAN’T TAKE IT NO MORE!!!

  52. TK can you help explain something.

    I see with the HRER

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015021412/full/3hap_sfc_f15.png

    The clipper comes off the US around the North Jersey Coast. It does NOT
    show coastal redevelopment. It shows the original clipper coming off the coast.

    I thought the energy was going to jump to the coast and form a new storm
    which was to become our blizzard.

    This looks like the original storm is coming out underneath us.

    If this is the case we should get clobbered.

    Since models don’t show that, what is happening?

    The energy JUMPS EASTWARD and forms the new storm AFTER the original
    one comes off shore??? This is very weird.

    Thoughts? Tx

    1. We actually see this happen more often with clippers taking that track than other types of redevelopments. For one thing we don’t have a pre-existing strong frontal system with convection on it extending out from the low, such as on one with lots of Gulf or Pacific moisture involved. This system, as I have stated previously, is a true clipper right out of the Arctic, moisture starved, and is riding along an Arctic boundary. That boundary will be the focus for lift and eventual redevelopment but it will be Atlantic moisture. The redevelopment is almost ‘starting from scratch’ without a whole lot of pre-prepped ingredients. If you look at that map east of the low center you see a sharp kink in the pressure pattern. That would be a likely spot for the new low to jump to. They do not always have to jump from land to water. They can jump from land to land, or water to water, depending on the set-up.

  53. Mayor Marty Walsh ‏@marty_walsh 4m4 minutes ago
    Please note: a snow emergency & parking ban will begin tonight @ 10 p.m. Ticketing & towing will start at 12 midnight. #bosnow #Boston

  54. Whatever happens oldsalty I love the fact that you stick to your guns / straight shooter no BS I like that style . Enjoy the day.

    1. Well I was pretty certain UNTIL the 12Z NAM. It has given me pause.
      We’ll see after the 12Z GFS. 😀

    2. It’s not always about sticking to any guns. It’s about analyzing each tool and knowing what to put stock in and what to discount. A whole lot of repeated trial and error.

  56. If the NAM could talk, I’d want it to explain to me how its 500mb features can be exactly in the same position and the same strength on both its recent 00z and 12z runs and somehow the surface solutions end up being somewhat different. Even the orientation of the features looks very similar.

    At least if the 12z 500mb feature were further north or east than the 00z 500mb feature, I could understand why the surface low seems a bit further east …….

    1. It’s doing these forecasts at many levels so it only takes a tiny shift in the parameters somewhere to make a difference. It’s hard to discern these differences in the maps we are looking at. Raw data would give more of a clue.

    2. I think the low will be further east, and the snow we get on Sunday will be backlash snow in these parts. Rarely do backlash snows impress me. The coast will get more than the interior, but because this storm is very progressive there won’t be enough time to generate lots of accumulating snow. Plus, you have to factor in the dry air. With backlash snows that becomes even more of an issue, as there will be little or no ocean component to dampen things up.

  57. Never been bullish on this storm. It’s been the storm that defines hype in my view. My last call is 3-6 inches for Boston and points south; 6-10 in NE Mass, big snows occur 100 miles NE of us. Wind will be a factor, but less of a factor than we are preparing for. Boston could get a 60mph gust, but I’m doubtful. The Cape will get over 70mph gusts. I’m also not bullish on Tuesday’s storm, which I think will wind up grazing us with perhaps 2-4 inches in Boston and up to 6 inches south.

  58. Regardless of model shifts and hype, this is could be a beast of a storm. Everyone in WHW Nation please be safe!

    Red Sox pitchers and catchers report Friday.

  59. The NAM gives Li more snow than us. They r going to get the inverted trough, while maine getting the actually storm leaving us in a hole between the two, if u looked at the future radar u will see we will get stuck in between. I think 12z gfs will back off, or a huge bust potential

  61. As of 10AM, anybody reading the above forecast in the post lean a little more toward the lower half of the ranges for now.

    I am doing some errands and will be away from the blog periodically through mid afternoon. Later this afternoon a full update and final call on snow will be posted.

    1. I never thought I would say this, but I am keeping my fingers crossed on those lower totals TK. I have had more than enough snow. 😀

      1. I think a lot of folks here never thought they would say that either…count me in on less snow camp. However, I know I will love whatever Mother Nature decides to gift us.

  62. With not full 100% confidence, while keeping it in the back of my mind, I am not buying into the pullback on the 12z NAM.

    Researching some more, I see what I think is the small difference in the 2 runs at 500mb starting around hr 22. At 12z, the 500mb feature begins to develop a 501 dm height contour and then loses it for a few hrs while the 500mb feature passes eastern Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard. Conversely, the 00z NAM continues to expand the 501 dm height contour along the same path.

    The 500mb feature, I think, is supposed to be strengthening during its passage. The 00z NAM does this, the 12z does not just along our south coast for a few hours. Might be the explanation for why the surface low gets a little further east on the 12z run. A little weaker at 500mb, the low in theory should get further east.

    But, I dont agree with that. That 500mb feature should be strengthening along its path. I am again, reservedly, not buying into the small but important changes the 12z EURO has to offer.

  63. 2014-15 total snowfall to date = 79.5″ (#8)

    February total snowfall to date = 42.3″

    Greatest snowfall @ Logan = 107.6″ (1995-96)

    2/8/1934 = -12F
    2/9/1934 = -18F (coldest ever recorded in Boston)

    1. I am on my phone so i can’t tell what and why it is doing what it is doing but 12z GFS went very uniform QPF of .6-.8 HARTFORD SPRINGFIELD WORCESTER PROVIDENCE BOSTON LAWRENCE. That would seem to be contrary to my thoughts about how this system should behave. More after 2pm

    2. It still looks out to lunch though. I am not buying the widespread qpf totals of 0.75″+ it is delivering across CT an western MA.

    3. It’s picking up on the inverted trough idea that the nam had been showing. Per Ryan Hanarans discussion, the rpm is showing this to. Will be crazy to see if this verifies.

  68. Mark when I read that on Ryan’s blog that I posted here I remember you were mentioning that yesterday. If caught under that going to get more snowfall than forecasted.

  74. Epstein’s calling for less snow and less wind than was forecast as recently as yesterday. I think the storm’s eastward march is hard to stop at this point. Big storm out over the ocean. Not nearly as big a storm on land. Even most of the coast appears to be spared the brunt of the storm, which is a good thing: 50 mph gusts are relatively easy to handle, 70 mph are not. I’m firmly in the Boston gets 3-6 inches camp, having digested the models as best I can. I admit I’m not as good as some of you at analyzing the models.

    Worst place to be in this storm will be the Outer Cape and up near Provincetown, where blizzard conditions will likely verify. Best place to be will be west of 128 where blizzard conditions will likely not verify and snow amounts will be limited. Blizzard conditions at the coast will be short-lived. In fact, though technically there may well be a blizzard at the coast, this storm will not be remembered as such.

    1. He has backed off on his estimates. 6-10 will still be a pain in the ass to deal with it down here considering what we already have. I share Tom’s concern about the winds and if they back off too I’ll be very happy. Either way I think tomorrow morning till possibly early afternoon will be a time to stay inside and hope that the whole thing doesn’t end up be worse.

  76. Here are some current W and NW wind GUSTS on the backside of this thing as of 12pm in Indiana.

    Gary : 51 mph

    Anderson and Eagle Creak : 48 mph

    Indianapolis : 45 mph

  78. Snowing lightly in Coventry, CT. Temperatures sure have rebounded. We hit 9 below this morning and are up to 23 now. 32 degree rise in 6 hours !

  80. Hope everybody stays safe. Heading into work in a couple of hours. I sure hope Boston doesn’t have a big storm as once advertised as we snow removal personal realy need to catch a break as going into the forth weekend with a big storm it’s tiring. Not only snow removal people but everybody needs a break as this is just overkill with one big storm after the other and I’m screaming uncle. I’ll sent updates from the city as well when I can and also will be checking in here for updates and changes. Take care guys and hope you feel better sue. Oh happy valentines day to the ladies here.

  81. So quick question. If I’m reading here correctly the latest trends have the snow totals going down is that correct. Checking around some different stations still saying no changes from yesterday. Just curious. Thanks.

    1. Its probably going to depend on the person’s interpretation of all the information we have seen. I bet if you ask 10 different people, you might just get 10 different amts for Boston. 🙂 🙂

  82. How is it possible that everyone is bored and fighting already at home? God this winter needs to end. Can’t stand these days stuck on the house much more.

  84. 12z euro still unimpressive. Less than 0.5″ QPF in Boston and very little backside snow. Jackpot still up north in Maine. It is a little juicier with the snow in CT tonight and it does show the inverted trough, but it is way down in Central NJ.

  85. Also noting the actual surface low near buffalo appears a little further south than modeled. Starting to see some pressure falls over the Delmarva as well.

  87. We are near Cranbury, NJ and smow is becoming scarce on the ground. Just flurries the entire way so far. Been travelling for 4 hours so far.

  88. In my neighborhood they’re closing stores tomorrow – all day. Even stores that open at 12 noon. Why? These are stores that were open for the most part throughout the first 3 storms, and this one is likely to be not nearly as bad. This is what irritates me. The hype and `B’ talk has people doing irrational things. By tomorrow late afternoon the wind will have begun to die down, the sun will be peeking through the clouds and Boston will have some more snow to contend with, but no massive amounts. Why on earth are we shutting things down? The T, the stores. C’mon. I’ve been around a while and throughout Menino’s tenure the T never shut down except when there was flooding in October 1996, and that only affected the Green Line. The T didn’t shut down for the April Fool’s blizzard, the President’s Day storm of 2003, Nemo in 2013, etc … There is absolutely no need to shut things down. Slower trains, fine. Run a couple an hour instead of 5 or 10.

      1. On Wednesday the first two tiers of EMS as well as fire could not get around the city. They couldn’t get to people who needed them and they couldn’t get people to the care they needed. It Took a while for it to go public and I have yet to see it mentioned in the media. I don’t know what happened thurs and fri but the traffic and inability to get around was equally bad so cannot imagine it was any different.

        1. Driving home yesterday was normal for me. The previous two nights before I had to stay for overtime and left city at a bad time but yesterday left after 3:30 and was home by 5 which is normal for me.

    3. I hear what you are saying but I’m not so sure it has anything to do with hype and more to do with two horrendous business weeks.

      The T problem seemed to have been (as I understood it) switches freezing. They also need to have it working by Tuesday. I’d like to see them shut the entire city. None of the small stores have been doing well. Rather than continue to drag it out and work around people and cars, shut down on a day most womt be out but will be clearing snow. Also Baker asked people to stay off the roads. I think that needs to be honored.

    4. I own a business in Newton that is likely to be closed tomorrow – I’m sure at no point will anybody be unable to leave their house if they wanted to yet due to the shut down of the MBTA none of my employees can get to work so at that point opening is no longer up to me. As I posted this week, I have had to reduce all my full time employees to part time or just laid off. This isn’t fun and games anymore – real people with families and dependents are losing their income / jobs over this weather! if one spent their day glued to “coverage” of the snow you’d think the world was ending. I’m sure the “media” in some sense capitalize on this as the weather is now the only topic of conversation and anything “the weatherman” says is instantly gospel made possible by social media. It wasnt

      1. ML I too am horribly sorry about your business. And I totally understand that hype does a disservice. Sadly I think the cities and towns in too many cases have mismanaged snow removal. The MBTA is wayyy past mismanagement and a disaster. Also these are unusual circumstances. And the scary part is lives are literally being jeopardized. And that is separate from hype.

        I so hope that you can recoup and get your business up and running quickly.

    5. It’s ridiculous. The hype and fear mongering from TV, radio and social media gets worse every winter. I can’t sit through one more minute of droning on. wall-to-wall storm coverage. And it is so sad to see so many people become paralyzed with fear because of what they see and hear. As a former daily newspaper reporter the hype and poor reporting makes me angry. But, it sells ads and it is only going to get worse.

    6. Some of it hype for sure but some businesses may actually be weighing the economic impact of opening or not opening on day where they may have nary a customer (also based on hype to some extent). If I had a small business with say 5 employees I may not want to open on day where my revenues may be almost nothing.

  90. We just had a couple heavy snow bursts here in Coventry- there are more of these intensifying over RI and heading north towards Boston.

  91. ML I am truly sorry that your business is taking such a hard hit and have been thinking about you since your first post and it just sucks. Please hang in there and I realy hope things turn around for the buisness.

  93. M.L., I’m also very sorry to hear about your business. You’re so right to point to the real-world consequences of situations like this one. As an economist, my suggestion would be for Massachusetts to apply for FEMA assistance, in particular, to help out small businesses. Larger businesses usually can cope, in part because of having a buffer or reserves for crises like these. Smaller ones can’t. Thankfully, the economy is in better shape than it was a few years ago, and the budget deficit is slightly better than it was. Dipping into the federal emergency funds to assist Massachusetts businesses, which can then stay afloat and continue to pay taxes, etc …, is a reasonable thing to do with some return on investment as well.

    I do think the T is poorly run, with too much middle management and administration, and too little emphasis on upkeep of the tracks, switches, and stock. Yes, the stock is old. We could do with newer trains. But, most public transit systems – including many in Europe – have relatively old stock. The T’s issue is partly not having invested in maintenance. Trains themselves have much longer shelf lives than your typical car. Airplanes, idem ditto. So when I hear from T officials that some of the trains are sometimes 25 or 30 years old, I say well okay, but that doesn’t explain the current crisis. DC 10s were made to fly for over 30-35 years and most did. The cross-country trains/engines I see making stops at Cambridge pharmaceutical factories are often over 40 years old. The difference is often maintenance. The T has never maintained its stock well, or the tracks.

      2. Often true, but the European systems are government-run. I don’t think it’s necessarily a function of public versus private ownership. The problem here in the U.S. is that many of the top civil servants who manage our state-owned entities are political appointees. At the very top we don’t have a culture of top-notch independent civil servants who stay on the job and are held accountable. To illustrate how bizarre the U.S. system sometimes is, the Food and Drug Administration commissioner is a political appointee. To me, that is really odd. It brings politics into a sphere that should be devoid of politics. It also introduces discontinuity in service, as commissioners often come and go in accordance with the election cycle.

  95. This is almost like summertime convection in a tropical airmass – flipping back and forth between very light snow and short but heavy snow bursts.

  96. It has been snowing very lightly here in Lunenburg for about two hours. My son and I were snowshoeing in the woods behind our property. It was absolutely beautiful. The air was so still. All we could hear was the crunching and squeaking of our footsteps.

    In the woods, there are very few drifts. Here, we were able to really see how much snow we have received lately.

  98. Somebody got a hold of the NWS saying that the central pressure of the redeveloped storm would be equivalent of a cat 2 hurricane and ran with it. Hype now spreading across social and mainstream media that Boston is about to get a category 2 snow-hurricane.

    This has got to stop. They are destroying my profession with these damn stupid hype-infused headlines that do nothing but MISLEAD PEOPLE!

    1. It is absolutely ridiculous. And to be honest, the wind will be more of a factor than any snow we see. If anything, in terms of snowfall, this storm will underperform.

    2. I looked on the three main networks when I saw you say that on FB but didn’t see any indication of them saying that. Where did you see it TK?

    3. TK, haven’t you heard, it’s no longer a Cat 2 hurricane. It’s a Cat 5, and the Cape will cease to be a summer destination for humans. Having survived the Chicxulub asteroid’s impact 70 million years ago, horseshoe crabs on the peninsula are expected to make it through this cataclysmic event. They will in fact be the sole inhabitants of the Cape for an indefinite period.

    4. Where I get my information:
      For the weather – WHW (where else? LOL)
      For Sports – Try to just watch the games and avoid ESPN and other websites. There are a few writers that I pay attention to (Peter Abraham, Chad Finn locally)
      For News – locally WCVB, nationally NPR and CNN, internationally BBC and CBC

      All (except WHW) have some hype but a lot less than the other choices.

      1. I would pretty much parallel that. I also turn to the Christian Science monitor as it is one of the least biased sources.

  100. Good afternoon,

    Went off to run errands. Left knowin the NAM backed off considerably.
    Came out to find the Cable is out and thus my internet. Also realize I left
    my Android at work charging. Trying to eat lunch and got a call from the alarm
    company. Problem at work. A busted Sprinkler pipe. Had to go in and move computer
    equipmemt off of the floor. Coordinated with facilities. Several circuits need
    to be re-wired. Water is being sucked up etc. etc.

    Finally got home. Cable still out, but Alas, I have my smart phone, so after letting
    my wife use internet for awhile here I am. UGH!!

    I’m wondering if the whole bunch of Facuckta Blizzard warnings shouldn’t come down. Gfs has backed down. CMC and EURO redevelop this thing well off shore.

    The clipper comes off the coast and while about 100-150 miles off shore, it
    redevelops EASTWARD at least another 100 miles or more. We ain’t getting
    much snow that way.

    Wind goes Wast with it. SUre it will be windy, but enough to justify ALL of those
    blizzard warnings? I dunno.

    This is looking more and more like a Bust.

    Sure we’ll get some snow and wind.
    Nam about 5-6 inches, GFS 9-10 inches or so.
    CMC LESS
    Euro? Who knows. Doesn’t look like much.

    Room for a surprise still? probably. Will there be? Probably not.

    IF we can keep the wind away this will be nothing. The only thing that
    makes it a problem is the wind.

    I concede!!! All of you who downplayed accumulations wer correct.

    Nice job.

    Next

    1. Ugh and ugh. What a day you had. And remember it isn’t over till …….well, you know. Although I suspect most everyone would be thrilled with a bust

    2. You threw in the towel last storm too soon. You may have done it again. But yes, this storm may underperform. Will see.

  101. As a disclaimer, my folks owned a small card and gift store for about 2 decades and thus we’re certainly affected by poor weather.

    Consider though ….

    1/26-1/27 : 24.6 inches, 2/2 : 16.2 inches, 2/8-2/9 : 22.2 inches Logan last 3 storms.

    Yes, the time spent providing information on the weather by the media is overexcessive and silly.

    These events have gone 3 for 3 though. Nothing that was forecast didnt happen. In fact, the blizzard met its forecast, storm 2 overacheived with that 2nd day dump and storm 3’s north shore dumping hit Boston and southern suburbia.

    If I had wanted to ignore the media’s excessive coverage and go out and spend money, I couldnt have. Its been bad ….. 3 times in a row, which makes it worse.

    So, to this storm. I’d propose that we need to get to tomorrow night when the event is done and see if the decisions being made matched what took place. In this case, maybe they wont, but I’d have to submit that so far, in the last 3 weeks, its truly been the actual weather occuring that has stopped everything in their tracks. It has stunk, is having negative impacts galore and its downright discouraging. Unfortunately, we are getting a reminder at how impactful the weather can be in our lives.

  102. First flakes 1:30PM
    Intensity picked up at 2:30 PM

    Just quite light snow here now. 4:04 PM

    Watching radar and satellite loop it looks like it wants to do
    Something DIFFERENT than modeled. It looks like it wants
    to EXPLODE the clipper and NOT redevelop Eastward.

    Funny it was mentioned that this would be a Miller-B type storm.
    I was going to post something contradicting that, but just kept my mouth shut.
    Know what? IF this thing does redevelop Eastward as modeled, it WILL put boston in the SNOW HOLE between Primary and New Coastal System JUST like areas in Western PA, Ohio and w. Virginia do on Miller-B systems. Plus noew coastal too far East. Really strange that it may work out this way.

    1. I’m still worried about the wind and lets see what happens for snow.

      The true change I see with the 12z EURO and the 18z NAM is only that instead of their being a 970ish bomb east of us, there’s more of an elongated deep area of low pressure south and east of us.

      In some ways, it broadens out some of the snow and wind affects potentially westward along the south coast of New England, maybe into southern CT.

  103. NWS 347 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015
    STORM UNCERTAINTY…
    A VARIETY OF SNOWFALL TOTALS ADVERTISED BY BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MARKETS. ITS A TOUGH FORECAST THAT COMES DOWN TO THE PROXIMITY AND LOCATION OF THE STORM TO NEW ENGLAND EXPECTING A TIGHT W-E GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL WHILE GUESSING SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. CONTINUED WOBBLES IN LOW POSITIONING AMONGST THE 14.0Z GUIDANCE. JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT W OR E UP TO THE TIME OF THE STORM CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE THAT CAN LEAD TO ANGST AND AGONY AMONG FELLOW METEOROLOGISTS.
    ITS NOT EASY AND CAN UNDERSTAND EVERYONES FRUSTRATION. ASIDE WE ARE REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT THE EASTERN-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IF NOT LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=discussion

    1. Significant if not life threatening is strong wording. Wind and tide I would think are the biggest concerns….not limited to those, of course.

    2. Good catch shotime !!! Additionally, that is not any reaction to the 12z model runs, that was part of their morning discussion. 🙂 🙂

    3. This was the EXACT wording from their 4AM Discussion.
      They don’t know how to update. Just cut and paste what
      previous forecasters used. PATHETIC!!!

    1. Well I have Noticed the following:

      1. SouthEast Wind and light.
      2. Temperature up there mid 20s now, but was approaching 30
      3. Bigger snow flakes
      4. so far, more intense snow.

      BUT I’m sure I’m missing what you wanted us to say.

    2. It had to start from square 1 with moisture, as opposed to the blizzard and storm 2. The most recent one though didnt have much as it approached.

    3. Little or no wind here. Although southeast and fairly steady to high 20s Humarock

      More wind last night

      Head bugging me so pressure has to be dropping

      Snowing small flakes for 3.5 hours and very little accumulation

      I’m still thinking

    4. It also lacks Pacific and Gulf moisture to work with. Its only source will eventually be from the Atlantic as a secondary low takes over.

  105. Been snowing here 3 plus hours but only about .75″ accum. The flakes are very small. Fist pump for TK and his colleague!

  108. Yes. Steady snow for quite a while. I’m barely to 1/2 inch and the flakes are TINY. About half the size of average.

  110. To be fair, flakes have been smaller than average for each of the last 3 storms. This snow has been no different IMO than those

  112. Re: Flakes
    I absolutely did NOT notice that they were very small flakes when it started.
    Very ordinary to me, however, looking out now, they seem a bit on the small side. 😀

    1. Haven’t seen any big flakes here yet. I mean these guys are tiny. The last few storms have produce larger flakes even in their colder phases than you often see as have had various mixed layers in the lower atmosphere and very cold air at ground level. The snow the other night was pure feathers and the flakes were quite large for how cold it was.

      I have been chatting with a local met. I went to school with and worked with about this very subject and he’s observed the same thing.

      The snow for most of this event will be very small in flake size but there will be a few pockets of larger flakes around southern areas at first due to milder air and the SE breeze.

      1. They are definitely unusually tiny here also and have been since it started. Almost could be mistaken for tiny ice or rain

  113. My friend and colleague and former coworker A.J. Burnett is lowering his snow totals for northern New England. Max 20 inches in Downeast Maine.

  114. NWS just cut amounts, took out the 14-18 area and shrunk the 10-14 area to the North Shore northward. We’re about matched up now but I may tweak down a little bit what I have.

  115. Was skiing at Gunstock in NH (near Gilford and Lake Winnisquan in the Lakes Region) this am and tiny flakes came down for the entire morning. Minimal accumulation.
    No snow driving south on 93 from NH between noon and 2 pm . Now back in Newton, MA I see same flakes and slight accumulation.

    1. How much snow is currently up in north country? They had a lot of early season snow but I don’t recall recent major snows up there.

  118. We are up to 1.5″ of snow in Coventry, Ct. Sitting at 23. I second Ace’s observation that I have not noticed any difference in flake size or spacing vs previous storms. We have had a couple bursts of heavier snow here where the flakes were actually very large. In the lighter periods of snow, they have been very small.

    1. Noted that above – warmer air from south of you. Flakes have been tiny so far the entire afternoon up here.

  120. Just got back from New Haven visiting my Uncle at the hospital. It took 1 hour and 30 minutes to get home which is normally a 40 minute ride. The flakes for the most part are small but I did notice some bigger ones on the way up. Now its a steady light snow out my window. Anyone traveling be careful on those roads.

  121. Snow started around 2pm, has been falling steadily since here in Westborough. We already have 2.7 inches.

  124. I think everyone got the lower snow amounts memo except BZ, just expanded their 12-18″ across eastern MA

    1. Warmer air from the south. Was noted above. Second part of storm will be small flakes for you.

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