The Week Ahead

22 Comments

 9:30PM

OVERVIEW…

Tonight, ladies and gentleman, I’ll be venturing further out on the limb than usual, and forecasting out 9 days, taking us not all the way through the Memorial Day Weekend, but through the final day of May. Keep in mind, that as we get out in time, forecast confidence lessens, but this will be the best shot I can give it for now, so please return for updates!

SYNOPSIS…

A warm front will push slowly eastward across New England Monday, with cloudy and damp weather. A cold front will approach on Tuesday, but ahead of it we will see a taste of summer weather. Showers/thunderstorms will accompany the front which will pass through the region Tuesday night. Expect a wave of low pressure to slow the departure of this front and produce some rain early Wednesday. An area of high pressure is expected to bring drier weather to the region on Thursday. Another front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Friday. Memorial Day Weekend should find the region in the middle of a transition to a new weather pattern. Forecast models vary, with some showing a front stuck in the vicinity with periods of showers. Another projection is building a ridge of high pressure off the US East Coast, keeping shower activity well to the west and bringing a more summery weather pattern in. I’m torn at the moment as to how this is going to play out, so for now I am going with a slow transition from scenario 1 (the showery one) to scenario 2 (the summery one), as we go through the holiday weekend into the final days of May.

DETAILS (Boston Area – check with me if you want specifics for another region)…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain after midnight. Low 50 to 55. Wind SE 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog early. A few periods of rain. High 60 to 65. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 55 to 60. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. High 77 to 82. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms early. Patchy fog late. Low 55 to 60. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts shifting to N after midnight.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 61 to 66. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph in the morning shifting NW in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY (5-27): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers. Low 56. High 74.

SATURDAY (5-28): Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 57. High 71.

SUNDAY (5-29): Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 77.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY (5-30): Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 80.

TUESDAY (5-31): Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

22 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. In case anyone missed it in the previous blog I am not seeing severe weather with the storms on Tuesday so I am only giving a 1 on the 1-4 thunderstorm index right now and the SPC seems to be thinking the same as they have parts of SNE in the general thunderstorm area.

    1. Certainly a risk of storms but low risk of any severe weather in this setup, especially the further east you are.

  2. Thanks TK. Based on that forecast we can say cautiously optimistic for the long weekend.

    1. I am basically in the same camp that Barry is in. He is a little more bold than I am forecasting the summertime temps for all those days, but it’s not out of the question it happens that way. I just have my doubts we bust into it that easily. Time will tell!

  3. Personally I think there will be a 30-50% chance of showers Sat/Sun and memorial day, I’m certainly not thinking washout but not all sun either

      1. Hi Vicki.

        We have been fortunate to camp all around, but my favorite campgrounds are ones that are on the ocean. My wife likes ones that are on lakes, so, we try to find a mixture of the two each summer. The campgrounds on the Bay of Fundy are unbelievable for their scenic views, proximity to National Parks and unbelievable tidal ranges. For Memorial Day Weekend, we camp locally in southeast Mass.

  5. Charlie I have to agree. I am hoping the EURO is correct in building that ridge faster. Let’s see how it plays out.

  6. Tk – thank you for an excellent post. My husband has asked me to thank you for arranging for the pick of the week to be Thursday:) It’ll be the first he has not golf in cold rain!

  7. My husband and me listened to the audio on Stephanie Abram’s twitter from a convenience store before, during and after the Joplin, MO tornado. It was terrifying and although it appeared no one was seriously hurt, I couldn’t help but cry a little hearing the people and children. We watched the Weather Channel last night and saw some of what was going on on the radar at the time.

    I may enjoy watching the radars – the skies and clouds during thunderstorms, but with situations like what happened last night – I wouldn’t mind if we had a cool and rainy summer free of storms.

    And to make matters worse, Missouri including the Joplin area could get more severe weather the next few days. I understand it is the Gulf jet stream and other factors involved in creating this havoc – but is it not unusual to have so many deadly tornadoes, one after the other in the same area – like what happened in AL a few wks. ago? And what are the chances for a similar situation to occur around New England?

    1. rainshine, I watched the coverage on the today show this morning. A Weather Channel team had been in the area and was chasing that particular cell. They’d had to stop because of heavy hail. If they had not stopped for the 10 minutes to wait for the hail to stop, they would have been in Joplin. As it was I watched the Weather Channel commentator and he literally broke down on camera because the devastation was so severe.

      Another man interviewed said his dogs had warned him by “going crazy” before the sirens even sounded. He took refuge in his bathtub. His home and one other in the neighborhood were the only two spared. He had two cars in his driveway – one was destroyed and one untouched.

      It’s heartwrenching to watch.

  8. Strong tornadoes are rare in New England but they can happen if everything comes together just right. A few examples would be the Worcester tornado back in 50s the Windsor Locks Tornado of 1979 which was an F 4 and the outbreak I was alive for the Northeastern Tornado Outbreak back July 10, 1989 with tornadoes reported in NY, NJ, MA, and CT with the strongest of the outbreak happening in Hamden, CT with E 4 damage.
    These tornadoes this year are hitting heavily populated areas such as Joplin, MO and Tucalusa, AL which is why the death tolls have been high.
    As I said last week I will take cloudy and cool weather over damage from a strong tornado and thanfully the thunderstorm activity should it materalize looks to be below severe levels should the storms develop tonight and tomorrow but of course I’ll keep an eye on it make adjustments to the thunderstorm index if needed.

      1. From my experience, there’s no comparison once u live in tornado alley for 5 yrs, I’ve seen more severe weather there in 5 yrs than living here for 32 yrs, when I was a kid I loved tstorms, then lived in Dallas and saw there storms and then moved back here, and now it’s hard for me to get excited for a claps of thunder and vivid lightning 🙂

  9. It’s nice to see the NAO finally going positive, which should help out in the temp department.
    I was looking at those tornadoes down south last night, they were huge.
    Tomorrow should be have a much different feel with much warmer temps and a more humid air mass. I’m going to enjoy it as much as possible.

  10. Jimmy, the Worcester Tornado occured on June 9, 1953. If I am not mistaken, it eventually dissipated just to the west of Framingham. In a sense, I believe it literally traveled east along Route 9 (more or less) after it left Worcester.

    With all the tornadoes in other parts of the U.S. this spring, I have a bad feeling N.E. is overdue. Let us hope and pray it never happens anytime soon.

  11. Philip I have the same feeling to and I have been saying for a while we are overdue for a strong tornado here in New England and I believe the last one to hit was back in that outbreak on July 10, 1989 when an F 4 hit Hamden, CT. To me its not a question of if its a question of when just like it is for a strike from a hurricane.

  12. Just a quick update on my thoughts for thunderstorms tomorrow. I am thinking CT River Valley West has the best shot at seeing some isolated severe storms so I am giving a 2 for those areas which is MODERATE and everywhere else I am going with a 1 which is MINOR since I am thinking the storms will remain below severe levels. As always I’ll keep an eye on it.

  13. Thanks Topkatt. Great win by the Bruins tonight and an unbelievable save by Thomas in the 3rd period on Steve Downie. Will see if they could close it out Wednesday night and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals!

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