The Week Ahead

202 Comments

5:37PM

SUMMARY…
A quick look at the weekend storm. Snow totals were higher than expected by me in portions of the region for both part 1 and part 2 of the storm. Both times these higher areas were portions of eastern MA and southeastern NH, also parts of RI as well for for part 1. Boston’s snow total of 16.2 inches for the latest storm brings their seasonal total to 95.7 inches so far moving it into 3nd place on the all time snowiest winters list. #2 is the 1992-1993 Winter with 96.3 inches but that is in close reach, and they are within 10 inches of the #1 snowiest Winter, 1995-1996 with 107.6 inches. With additional snow threats in the forecast, Boston has a very real chance of reaching #1 with the 2014-2015 Winter, after having only 5.5 inches through January 23! Incredible. Now onto the week upcoming. It’ll be an Arctic Monday, Presidents Day, with bright sun, gusty winds with blowing snow, and frigid air. Low pressure tracks out of the Southeast States and off the Atlantic Coast Tuesday bringing a shield of snow to the region. Light to moderate snow amounts are likely, with greater totals further southeast and less to the northwest. Additional snow showers are likely Wednesday as upper level low pressure slowly traverses the region. Another blast of Arctic air arrives Thursday and Friday before broad trough moves in and brings another snow threat for next weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Blowing snow under a clear sky. Lows from -10 remote suburbs to +5 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -10 to -25.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Blowing snow. Highs 10-15. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often 0 to -10.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows -5 to +5. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow likely by late morning on. Light to moderate snow accumulation possible. Highs around 20. Wind variable to NE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 20.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 10.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low -5. High 15.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-15. Highs 20-25.

202 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Chance of snow … chance of snow … chance of snow … it’s like a record that’s got scratches on it and keeps repeating the same chord over and over and over again …

    Thanks for your work, TK.

  2. Thanks TK for the update! 🙂

    Updated NWS info on storm and total to date:

    recent storm = 13.0″
    total to date = 95.7″

    1. 107.6″ = 1995-96
    2. 96.3″ = 1993-94
    3. 95.7″ = 2014-15** (to date)

      1. Hold on TK. I think that 13.0″ is the snow that fell TODAY. I believe that 16.2″ is correct and that 95.7″ is not updated properly.

        Keep your original numbers above for now until NWS climate report catches up!!!!

  4. From late 1969 through 1970, my parents rented a very old house in Milton (on Hillside Street). Our family was nomadic for several years, renting houses in Nahant, Milton, and Needham, before finally settling on a long-term home in Brookline. The Milton rental was apparently a home owned by someone from the Forbes family. It was not fancy or equipped with `modern’ (circa 1970) `amenities.’ As I recall, this late 17th or early 18th century home (which looked as Puritan dark brown as can be) did not have central heating. The 1969/1970 winter wasn’t brutal. But, I can remember huddling around the heater in the dining room and the fireplace in the living room. We sort of lived like pilgrims for a year.

    1. Looks like this storm surpassed even your expectations. Here is hoping this is the end although I highly doubt that. Next weekend there is yet another threat which could be significant.

  5. I hate to say it. Latest analysis suggests that we are not out of the woods by any means on Tues/Wed. That too could be a big one should the jet once again buckle just a bit more.

    1. I would not be surprised if my “light to moderate” initial call changes to “moderate to major”.

  6. Thanks TK for your efforts. This storm once again overachieved. It’s a wild winter for sure. I’m glad that Woodshill informs us every step of the way.

    1. My pleasure. This storm was not my best performance at least in some locations, others were ok.

  8. Philip… It was right originally. #2 spot. The 13.0 was Government Center. 16.2 was the official Airport report.

    1. No, make that #3. Added wrong even with the fix to the fix to the fix.

      MY GOODNESS AM I OUT OF IT!

      16.2 is right.
      95.7 is the season-to-date.
      #3, but really close to #2.

      1. Thanks TK. There is enough false/incorrect data out there these days as it is and I certainly don’t want to contribute, even unintentionally. 🙂

        1. I went back and forth 3 times just from being so tired I couldn’t think straight. We have it fixed now. 🙂

  9. I would say the Tuesday event could go in any direction right now. Current guidance might send it “underneath” us and over the fish, but a small change, which is possible, might send it much closer. I discounted it, but not so sure now. One thing for sure … Mother Nature does not want to give Boston a break at all!

  10. 13 inches is too low for a Gov Ctr measurement. And this quibble is coming from someone who wrongly and repeatedly called for 3-6 inches in Boston, max! I measured 16.5 inches, and I’m in Back Bay, about a mile from Gov Ctr.

  12. Already a nice spread in forecasts for Tuesday for Boston ranging from 1-2 inches from NWS to 4-8 inches from Mike W.

    1. And Bri Eggers is saying 2-4″. More model mayhem!

      Do you really think the final numbers will end up high anyway TK?

          1. Ride was not bad. I ended up doing all of the driving. Gas prices were great. Under 200 dollars total to get here!

  14. I went out at 11am and just finished. That was the worst cleanup I have ever done. The wind was so bad my pants literally froze in place and I couldn’t even bend at the knee without serious effort. I just wish there was some light at the end of the tunnel…anything to latch onto. Even like a week without snow. Getting snow depression ha.

  18. Thank you TK!1 Great job and your efforts are appreciated by all here!!

    You mentioned Mike W’s 4-8 inches. We watched him because golf was on 4.
    I also caught Tim Kelly. He did NOT give amounts, BUT he mentioned something
    else. You mentioned Upper Low following the Tuesday storm. Wankum, actually
    suggested that it might be a Dual system. Now he never mentioned the word, but
    I DO think he was talking about a possible potent Norlun.

    TK, do see that as a possibility at all, depending on exact timing of these systems?
    That upper low, is another vigorous Arctic system not unlike the one that just triggered the mess today.

    Thoughts? and Thanks.

    3. I couldn’t rule out some kind of inverted trough, but if you notice we haven’t really had those as a prominent feature this season.

    1. Yes and no. IT did stop, but I think it was due to the sun setting
      and it getting COLD. Waiting to see what we get today. tx.

      1. If the storm was 3 or 4 days away I would totally agree, but this one is 36 hrs away and no model is calling for anything over 6.” I think our streak of major storms may be coming to an end.

    1. I know that the DOW from LSC measured 72 MPH at Provincetown I believe. I don’t think there were any hurricane force gusts though.

      Blizzard conditions did not occur at Boston but did in much of coastal southeastern MA.

  28. I think weatherwise, I’ll be glad when we get through to next Friday.

    Things look good for now in terms of avoiding more big snows.

    Some sort of weakness, followed by a deeper trof in the Great Lakes and how it could interact with east coast low pressure areas give me a bit of pause.

    But, for now, hopeful.

  29. At 11pm ….

    Worcester : -6F with a 20 mph wind, gusting to 34

    Providence : 0F with a 16 mph wind, gusting to 26

    Logan : 1F with an 18 mph wind, gusting to 28

    Doesnt this weather belong on the summit of Mt. Washington ?

  31. Looking at the GFS through the period, that is one active pattern. We’re gonna have to stay on our toes for sure.

  32. 63 degrees currently in Del Ray Beach, FL aka the land of Jewish grandparents. Sun is nice, but otherwise a depressing place if you ask me…unless you like dinner in strip malls at 5:00…

    1. We are in Orlando. Taking advantage of today being 75 and going to a water park. Wed-Fri only in the 50’s for highs.

      1. Low 50’s… Compared to us up here that’s like the core of the earth today lol. A balmy -2 in Methuen right now

  33. In any other winter, whats about to happen the next 48-72 hrs would be straightforward, but as we’ve seen the last 3+ weeks …….

    The NAM and to some extent the GFS show that once the first system passes us by tomorrow and that mostly is a grazer, the precip near the coastline may continue for a while thereafter.

    Nothing heavy, nothing like we’ve seen, but, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out thru Thursday.

  35. Thanks, TK.

    I tend to shut my computer down early and sometimes, I miss out on things. My bad.

    DS, so sorry to hear of your loss. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

    North – glad you are enjoying your trip. Jealous! 🙂

    OS – hope you get your leak fixed soon.

    John – enjoy the day off and get some rest!

    If I missed anything else, apologies.

    However bad this winter has been (and continues) the seasons continue. For the past few mornings I have heard some birds singing. So hard to believe with all this snow and cold that the birds are out singing! Spring will come at some point! 🙂

  37. DS, just got Caught up on the last blog. Sorry for your loss.

    Old Salty, I just read about your leak. Hope it will not start again. That is what I am worried about most while we are away and pipes freezing. Left my heat on while we are gone and asked a friend to turn on faucets when they are there for a few.

  38. Developing serious leg pain with all this work shoveling. I need several days off my leg but it keep snowing and won’t give me a break.

  39. Before this started on January 24th Boston only had 5.5 inches of snow now close to 95 inches.
    Even here for interior CT before January 24th only had 9.9 inches of snow now up to 46.8 inches for the season. 36.9 inches during that time period. Impressive yes but no where near what Boston has had in that same time period.

  41. Good Morning Everyone. Bright, sunny and damn cold here in Hingham this morning. Going out shortly for what hopefully will be one final time at shoveling the crap from this latest storm. Took a look outside and it looks like plows didn’t croak me so that’s a plus. The walkway also looks to be snow covered again due to the blowing and drifting. So I’m probably looking at an hour to an hour and a half…not bad. Then we wait and see what happens over the next couple of days.

  42. The trusty Accuweather 80 month forecast indicates the last sub 32 high temp we will experience with be a week from tomorrow, February 24th. From there the high temps run from the 30’s and 40’s and eventually to the 40’s and 50’s to the end of March. That in combination with the higher sun angle should allow for gradual melting and just pray we do not receiving any significant precipitation events during that time.

    1. NWS is saying after midnight tonight! Not sure if I believe that. Looks like a minor t0 moderate event with a couple of curve balls possible.

      1. Oh wow that’s early. I just saw something that said 3-4am starting in CT and moving through RI and into Boston by mid-morning (9-10am ish?)

        1. That would be better for the commute. I saw Ch 4’s weather map showing 3-6 in our area. Even that could mess up one or both commutes tomorrow.

  45. Listening to scanner this morning and it sounds like it’s a good thing that traffic is light with the holiday. More accidents, lots of off and on ramps snow covered again. Also frequent reports of CO2 odor. Fire and Safety are busy today.

        1. There were a couple of reports of CO…they mentioned that in conjunction with reports of Alarms going off. Also reports of gas odor in some instances. Once again my bad for not posting the correct info. Typing and trying to get my gear on to go out and shovel…plus the damn cats are walking all over the desk and distracting the hell out of me.

  46. AceMaster you said you were going to NYC tomorrow if I remember correctly. NWS going for 3-4 inches in NYC tomorrow starting 3 4 in the morning ending early afternoon.

    1. Thanks JJ. I was supposed to leave at noon tomorrow but it looks like even if i leave first thing in the morning i wont beat it.

  48. Made it to -3.6 here in My Oregon Instruments thermometer. It has been
    pretty accurate, but I don’t know when it gets that low.

    Waiting on 12Z NAM 6Z GFS has 3-4 inches for Boston, NAM has 2-3 inches.
    CMC and EURO even less. Can we escape this one?

    THEN we have another one scraping the coast with a Vigorous Arctic system
    diving down. Worried about some sort of interaction there. I see “some” hints
    of a Norlun. Hopefully NOTHING happens, but we need to keep an eye on it
    for any surprises. TOM alluded to this, although he never mentioned the word.

    I can’t believe what the front end loaded did to clear our street. I’m on a dead end street and the last house. Therefore, the pile of snow for the whole street
    ends up in front of my walk. Here is a shot of it, but doesn’t do it justice:

    https://scontent-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10523581_10205993813631529_543695154072692723_n.jpg?oh=c3599e46b84b4abf794ba18dd4da3430&oe=5592898E

    https://scontent-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10993962_10205993814511551_5902468123152247381_n.jpg?oh=50bdbabcc88c6a6f673b149687f72d47&oe=558B7EB4

  56. Been outside.

    The sun definitely helps some and the wind isnt quite as strong.

    Car engines weren’t too happy, but the inside of the cars were fairly mild.

  57. A little more comfy with lighter amounts tomorrow and an inverted trough north of the area on Wed with just snow showers here from cold advection and an upper trough.

  59. This weather reminds me of one the placecards held up during Van Halen’s “Right Now” video…where the card says “Right Now, we are just living between Ice Ages.” True.

  60. Time to bring this out, re-posted from contest page courtesy of Vicki:

    This is the most up-to-date list I have. Did I miss anyone? I know there were a few last minute entries.

    WeatherWiz 100.1
    Old Salty 94.6
    Cat966G 70.0
    Tjammer 67.6
    John 67.5
    Shotime 62.2
    Hadi 56.8
    North 56.7
    bearlb67 56.0
    Haterain 54.0
    Philip 46.8
    Vicki 43.7
    TK 41.1
    WxWatcher 40.4
    DS 38.4
    Emily 38.0
    Retrac 37.9
    JimmyJames 37.2
    Tom 36.5
    Matt 36.4
    Sue 33.5
    Scott77 31.2
    Charlie 29.3
    Keith 27.0
    Ace 22.2
    Joshua 19.2

    Pretty Funny looking back on this.

      1. Nice Job WeatherWiz. Looks like you are the closest if the
        SNOW MACHINE STOPS now or keeps on trucking. 😀

        1. Like I said, I was totally throwing an outrageous total out just to be different. No science in that guess.

    1. I know thats what it says, everything is really showing that ….

      I wonder ……… however light they may be ……. what the surface winds are going to be along the immediate coastline tomorrow.

      Cant you just see Boston having a light NNW wind …… the Boston harbor buoy, Marshfield and PTown having a light NNE wind …… All of the synoptic storm snow basically missing us and yet ……….. we’ll be sitting here at 10am tomorrow looking at 3-5 inches of snow on Cape Ann, Boston and Marshfield because some small scale convergence took place resulting in a band of moderate snow along the immediate coastline.

      2. Shhhhh
        Shame on you for even thinking it. Now I have to go back
        to the maps and check for that. Why did you do that????

        1. Sorry 🙂

          But, if you translate the storm snow on its general path from where it is in NJ on the GFS, there is NO way it should be bulged, slightly as it is, like that in eastern most Mass.

          Further, the low is going to try to get those winds towards NNE, while, inland they’ll stay N or NNW.

          We’ll see.

        1. Yes.

          Good stuff OS !!!

          I’m not guaranteeing anything, but its just something, as a small scale event, that if it happens, will not surprise me one bit.

  62. Next year when we have the yearly snowfall contest we should play for money. $50 bucks a person. That will add some excitement!!! Congrats O.S. look like you are the winner.

    2. Next year I suggest when it has not snowed in December we do not say winter is over. I think we may have ticked mother nature off 🙂 🙂 🙂 😈

  64. When I said 41.1 for the season I envisioned us counting down the inches to see if we would get to the 3rd winter in a row of above average snow at Boston for the first time since 1978. I NEVER envisioned is counting down the inches to the all time record.

    11.9 inches to tie. Exactly one foot will break it.

        1. Your area is America’s new snow belt. Actually, no matter what happens tomorrow your area is likely to have more than any other place in Massachusetts. Same may apply this weekend.

  66. Morning all. I am almost feeling human again and just took a ride to Plymouth Harbor. I am actually parked right where Cantore flipped his lid over the thunder snow. Happy to hear the amounts decreasing for tomorrow. Was beginning to wonder if I would ever see my husband again.

    1. Very happy to hear you are on the mend. I didn’t realize that was Plymouth Harbor where Cantore had his fun.

      Also Marshfield MA temps were mentioned on the Today Show this am. I guess if nothing else, several places in MA are making national news. Just wish it could be for more positive reasons. hmmmm – I guess the lightning was positive 😉

      1. The whole Country must be aware of this small little town, Marshfield, MA …. specifically this place called Brant Rock. We’ve been nationally reported a lot lately.

  68. Trying to clear the snow up here but the wind just keeps whipping it around, boy that wind won’t quit here. There is so much snow here it’s crazy!!! Glad to hear not much in the way of snow tomorrow and hopefully we can get by without meaningful snow for a bit.

  69. I am going to go out on a limb and say, next winter will be mild with little snow. We are bound to have a winter like that . Of course I reserve the rightt to change my mind. Lol

    1. I certainly hope you are right on that. However, Boston had 9 consecutive winters of above normal snowfall 1963-1972. I can’t imagine of a repeat performance of that magnitude though.

  70. Thanks for all your kind words. Husband flies out tomorrow morning and I follow on Thursday. Like I said, this site was so helpful with planning! Thank you, thank you, thank you!!

  71. Thanks Joshua…I agree that Dave Epstein’s totals are overdone and I hope they don’t verify. However, we have seen with storm after storm overachieving by quite a few inches in most cases. Even the storm before last which developed too far out to sea gave Logan exactly 1.0″ of snow…an amazing amount from a storm that totally missed SNE. 😉

  75. Just reached out all of the upper windows and knocked the ice down and cleared snow off of porch roof. I’d like to see a house that doesn’t have huge icicles hanging off its horrible .

  77. 12z Euro has 1-3/2-4″ of fluff snow tomorrow.

    For Sunday, it has a cutter with snow changing to rain followed by a nice flash freeze. It looks nothing like the GFS at all which keeps the northern stream dominant with continued cold and some light overrunning snow on Saturday. Not sure what is going on with the Euro but it doesn’t seem to have a clue. Perhaps compounded by the fact that it doesn’t do well in northern stream dominated patterns like the one we are in now but it has been pretty horrendous all winter.

    1. Yeah, there’s not any cutters coming yet. And even so, they’ll be so much CAD here. There’s no 50 degree rainstorms in sight IMO with a warm front plowing through.

      1. Yeah. And it will probably be 10 inches. 😉

        I’d actually be pretty shocked if Boston saw a decent snowfall from this one. Suppression seems almost certain.

        Famous last words.

    2. LOL …. here we go.

      The signal is there for NNE or NE winds just east of us.

      If its 10 miles or so offshore, we’ll be shaking our heads again tomorrow.

      If its 40 or miles or so offshore, where the convergence boundary sets up, we’ll be ok.

        1. I think the Boston Harbor Buoy’s wind tomorrow morning might help figure out if a surprise is coming.

          I think if there’s coastal convergence, we’re looking at mid morning thru early-mid afternoon.

          The clue might be in what the wind is out at the buoy.

          If the wind is anywhere from 340 to 010 or 020, I think we wont get that coastal enhancement.

          But, if its 030 to 060, then that might be a sign that coastal front/convergence is close to the coastline and that we may in fact be susceptible to 3-5 close to the ocean.

          1. the harbor buoy in Boston is 16 miles out east of Boston and I think might be especially helpful in this particular instance.

    1. I was texting with Hadi the other day….wait until March when that southern stream starts juicing up while the northern branch is still shooting cold ULL’s at us.

      We’re no where near done.

      Fear is we’ll still have this snowpack except the March storms will deliver 1′ storms with 1.5 to 2″ of qpf instead of .5″

      2. Indeed, I would not discount anything in this pattern. The GFS does want to relax the cold a bit on March 1-2 and give us a mix/rain event as TK alluded to earlier, but then it just reloads with a big trough right after with lots of southern stream juice. I would have to say at this point that an early spring is not looking likely. This overall wintry pattern is going to persist at least into the first week or two of March.

        1. If this keeps up the City of Boston will be SHUT down, not for days, but Weeks if not longer.

          My son took a trip to East Boston to scope out his
          commute for tomorrow. He noticed many lanes dropped due to snow banks. 4 lanes to 2, 2 lanes to 1, 1 lane to 1/2 lane etc etc.

          Tomorrow will be an ABSOLUTE DISASTER AREA
          in BOSTON. GAURANTEED!!!

  80. Just came in from Shoveling the deck that I didn’t get to yesterday.

    Boy that SUN is WARM. Temp got up to 20 and there was a whole lot of melting
    going on!

    Also, good news. No Leaking in the house today. Either it was so cold last night
    that it Froze SOLID OR whatever I did yesterday alleviated the situation.

    Whatever, I’ll take it.

    On another note, My Office Is Closed tomorrow while they continue to remedy
    the mess from the Burst Sprinkler Pipe. And I do mean MESS!!

    Hopefully, we open on Wednesday.

    1. Isnt the sun nice !! Had to turn the heat off as we drove around because of the sun already making the car warm.

      Good news on the ice jam front. Continued good luck to you and everyone on that matter.

  83. I was going to mention the sun angle as well – it is only 12F here but looking at the walking path outside my window, the portion in the shade is still snowpacked while the portion in the sun has black showing. The strong sun angle will promote some melting even in this cold pattern.

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