Mid Winter In Late Winter

315 Comments

3:45PM

SUMMARY…
The cold pattern even by mid Winter standards continues with no sign of letting go soon. Though the train of big storms seems to have subsided, it will continue to be an active weather pattern, with a fast-moving low pressure area passing south of New England Tuesday, delivering a light to moderate snowfall, an upper low and inverted trough bringing snow showers on Wednesday, and then another system over the weekend bringing the next chance of snow. In between, Thursday and Friday will be dry with very cold air from the Arctic.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low -5 to 0 interior valleys, 0-5 elsewhere except 5-10 urban centers/coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches except 2-4 inches Cape Cod and portions of the immediate coast. Highs 20-25. Wind light N becoming NE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Coastal snow showers possible. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional snow showers. Highs 20-25. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 25.

315 thoughts on “Mid Winter In Late Winter”

  4. Thanks TK. Wind is a bit nippy but when it isn’t blowing, it is quite nice. Sun feels great. I was out and about trying to find a place to hang a bird feeder as my pole system is wayyyyy up back and inaccessible. I think I need an engineer 🙂

  6. On a totally different not, sadly Lesley Gore passed away. Although I know she remained in the business, her early 60s songs were a huge part of my youth and others my age.

      3. Yep as others said its my party and then Judy’s turn to cry. Another big favorite of mine was you don’t own me. She also played cat woman’s sidekick in batman

  8. excerpt from Mayor Walsh’s press conference today. More humor sort of.

    At his latest snow press conference, Walsh also figuratively wagged his finger at people he said have taken to jumping out of windows into snow banks: Cut that out, he warned. There could be a giant death icicle that’s fallen off your roof in that snow bank and what happens when you land on that? “This isn’t Loon Mountain, this is the city of Boston,” he said.

    1. Great he’d have apoplexy if he knew my son in law sleds off the roof. And as kids when we skied North Conway we would often stay at my uncles in fryeburg ME and always sledded and jumped off of the roof. Back then there was always this much snow on the ground in those parts.

    1. There is no upcoming storm. I have personally cancelled it …. I don’t care what those silly mets say 😈

    2. Philip, from what I am seeing right now, it looks like an overrunning light snow event Sat night/Sunday. Not a big storm.

      1. Thanks Mark, I hope you are right. I have to work this weekend and I use the T. The way things are going with them, I just hope they will be at full service by then.

  11. so i been keeping measurements of snowfall, got 101.4 inches of snow here in billerica. but could have been a bit more or less due to blowing and drifting

    1. I live right next to the Greenbush commuter rail line (about 1/2 mile or so from the West Hingham station). This morning they announced that they would miss 5 of the 8 scheduled trips. So far I believe they have missed them all. I did hear one train go by about an hour ago but looking out back when it by it appeared to be a work train.

      1. Oh boy. Mac has to be at Brigham for surgery tomorrow. We are to arrive by 10:00. We are allowing three hours. Darned well better be enough or I’ll be frothing at the mouth at bakers and walshs offices for the mess they are not dealing with

        2. Hopefully a lot of people are taking the week off (school vaca) or even a extra day or two and the roads won’t be that bad. Hope it all works out for the best tomorrow for both of you.

    2. Years of mismanagement and an aging system (rails, signals, and in many cases the rolling stock itself).

    1. Thanks John. Appreciate it!! We are having a car service take Us in. We learned last Wednesday that the garage and valet fills mid morning and then they divert cars to children’s and other hospitals which fill up fast

  18. The MBTA’s statement is inane. Not insane, but inane. It implies either: A. We’re going to have another month of this weather, which we’re not in all likelihood; or B The knock-on issues from the storms we’ve experienced will take 30 days to sort themselves out. What? I don’t care how old the stock or tracks are. Last month when there was no snow the T was doing okay. With the tracks cleared and less extreme cold the same equipment that did the job in mid January should do the job in late February.

    1. When the Blizzard of 78 hit most of the routes that weren’t in the subway or along the EL were shut down for just about a week. At that time there were complaints about the age of the system, stock, tracks, etc and that was almost 40 years ago. Not much has been to improve things since then. The Green Line is a prime example. The main section of the subway was built in 1897 and extensions to Kenmore and North Station not too long after that. Signals in the green line subway haven’t been upgraded in quite a long time. The Green Line rolling stock is way too long for a system that has turns and stations that were built for much smaller cars. It was a mess after Blizzard of 78 and it’s no surprise to me that it’s worse now. Maybe privatizing would help.

    2. Meanwhile the roads in Boston have to absorb the increased traffic. This week as was wisely pointed out is school vacation. What about the other three weeks.

  19. There’s got to be more with this entire T thing cause this is just unheard of a major transportation outlet just being shut down . Now it’s on the news may take 30 days to fully restore service if it doesn’t snow. My opinion the head people running this T should be fired because it truly is unheard of. On another note Harvey saying to watch out for ocean enhancement snow tomorrow night in addition to the day time snow .

    1. Joshua I’ve been riding the T for over 20 years with all kinds of storms in That timeframe I’ve never seen this. I’m not going near it now dealing with people pushing and shoving to get on a cold bus I’m driving in till this mess is over. I just can’t figure it out. They have replaced the buses , green line trolly cars and have bough new red line trains but wait the trains don’t come in for 10 years , what 10 yrs.

      1. John..another example of how they mess things up is that just before the Blizzard of 78 (in 1976 iirc) the T decided that they had to upgrade the Green Line cars. Up until then they ran PCC cars that were built between 1941 and 1951 (so at that point these cars were anywhere between 25 and 35 years old). These cars ran well but were getting long in the tooth. They started bringing LRV’s built by Boeing-Vertol (who never made rail cars). The cars had problems from the start. The articulated cars could negotiate the tight turns at Boylston Street and Government Center. There cost overruns and other issues too. The cars had a poor record of repair and about a third of the stock was cannabilized to repair the rest of the stock. The T was a mess back then and it’s only got worse.

        1. Good information Keith

          And yet the mayor and governor knew this was coming. And did nothing to improve the roads. It is a mess from the very top to the very bottom.

          1. It reminds me of the Lincoln Building that collapsed in Hingham Sq. Building was old and there had been many people who wanted to rehab it but the owner didn’t seem to want (at least from what I heard). The result was it collapsed under the weight of snow it had never experienced before.

      1. We have a consistent four feet here as the four foot fence between our yard and neighbors is just showing the top of posts.

  22. Hey great news all! I am calling this winter as done…fizzled out. Why? Wife is in Khols buying me a ski mask and snow pants which means it won’t snow anymore…haha.

  24. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2h2 hours ago
    Not sure what the ECMWF is smoking right now but I *highly* doubt we’re going to get a rain event this weekend. We shall see.

  26. Eric coined a new term this evening for Snow Rage and Anger.

    SNANGER!!! Have to love that.

    AND OH btw. Eric has Boston in the 3-6 inch range due to Coastal Front/convergence!
    TOM gave him a talking to. 😀

      2. Very unlikely to occur anywhere except the southcoast and the cape. However, anything can happen with the way this winter has gone.

      3. 12z NAM/GFS/EC all centered around 0.1 at Boston/Worcester/Hartford. Groton to New Bedford closer to 0.2.

        SREF used to be my go to snow tool but I discarded it a while back because it became too polluted by the SUNY NMM and ARW short range crap. But the way the last 3 weeks have gone, if it is the most aggressive with the precip you might as well go with it.

    4. I think it was the SREF a couple storms back (the storm that overacheived on day 2, the one before the big ocean enhancement 4 day storm) that had Burlington, VT getting clobbered and a decent snowfall in Montreal Canada and of course, max snow was in our general area.

  28. The Euro model solution for Sunday would be disastrous. Lots of flooding, some roof collapses, followed by a flash freeze. We need gradual melting from the February sun, not a 50 degree rainstorm.

      1. It had its struggles last winter. It has been amplifying systems too fast and too much, pushing them too far north and west with a left of low center precip bullseye that is too far west. Then it slows the system down and holds on to the precip too long in the NE US. This has been happening since August of 2013.

  29. SREF a little bullish for me here in CT going for around 4 inches. Will see if other models start showing that.

      2. Awesome performance. I like Carrie Underwood. Not really into Vince Gill, but he does a command performance here for sure.

        NICE and thanks

  31. Driving around many areas today …..

    The overall snowcover …….. the stuff left by the plow on the side of the road ….. and general snow piles ……. I just cant wrap my brain around how much snow there is.

    Then, with the exception of the main roads, most of the side roads have this 1 or 2″ shiny snow/ice combo cemented right into them.

    It really is unbelievable.

    1. Tom it’s even worse up here. I invite you take a ride through some of
      Boston’s Neighborhoods. UnFREAKIN Believable is all I have to say.

      NEVER NEVE EVER I have seen this before, NOT even after the
      Blizzard of 78. This TOPS IT ALL!!!!!!

      2. I’d imagine …… Its looked overwhelming on the live TV shots, where you can kind of tell there’s a row of cars literally buried on both sides of the street and there’s probably a 4 ft width lane between them.

    1. Looks like most of the area on the channel 7 map was downgraded which is good. I am on the coating to an inch zone which means no moving snow or roof rakong IF it pans out.

          1. Yes! tomorrow’s high 56! Going to Magic Kingdom today and will dodge the rain this afternoon and evening. They are open until 1am tonight. I told the girls they better be ready for a late night. Drive home this weekend is looking a little sketchy.

  35. Icy mess in south. And later week DC stands a chance of dropping below zero for first time in 21 years. Boston rush hour traffic live pictures are now making national news

  36. Glad to see the Mid Atlantic get into some snow. They have been in a snow draught for two years so you know the kids must be excited.

  37. D.C. and Philly had above normal snowfall last year. D.C. had around 32 inches and Philly had a top 3 snowiest winter last year. I am not sure how much snow they had for this event but coming in D.C. had around 3.5 inches and Philly was around 2 inches so far this winter.

    1. My son goes to Villanova and last year classes were cancelled at least 8 days. It was incredibly snowy in the Philly area last winter.

  38. Could not be happier with the path of this storm. Now let’s get through Sunday without anything major and hopefully we will have turned the corner. I, like most of you, cannot take it anymore. I can suffer through the cold, as it doesn’t make my muscles ache. 🙂

  39. Famous last words (hope I don’t jinx it), but I do think we’ve turned the corner and I see signs of a return to seasonal temperatures by late next week. This doesn’t mean snow threats are out the door, but there will be significant melting once seasonal temps kick in.

    1995-1996 may still rank as #1 when all is said and done. Another foot doesn’t sound like much, but it may be a hurdle that’s harder to overcome than one thinks.

    I’m concerned about the rain this weekend. I see that other models are now also pointing to that scenario. We’ll see what happens.

    1. I stated a few blogs back – with no evidence at all – that after Presidents Day winter might come to a quick end. Hoping my hunch was right! I do see us getting more snow though for sure…hopefully back to manageable amounts.

    2. As late as next Thursday, 2/26, I see a projected high of 25 degrees. Hope the temperatures start returning close to normal after that date. As for this weekend, if there is any rain, looks to me that it will be showery, not a big storm.

  40. As much as I find snow storms fascinating. I am happy that we don’t have another one coming. I just hope we do not have any huge rain makers coming and wishing for slow melting.

  43. I think you go from nothing to decent snow falling in a very short distance.

    Perhaps a bit of an increase needed in projected amounts for Providence and Taunton ?

    I’m right where the blue echoes turn to green and its a steady light snow now.

    Visibility perhaps 1 to 1.5 miles.

    1. Yup, nothing simple or easy this 4 week stretch.

      Starting to see dark greens on the radar.

      I wont be surprised by anything.

      And this is just the storm’s synoptic snow.

      Lets see what happens along the immediate coastline tonight.

  48. Approaching 2 inches of fluff in Mashpee. Snowing moderately. Huge sheet of ice on the beaches on buzzards bay. Old Silver and Chappy beach in Falmouth have ice almost as far as you can see into the horizon.

    1. It will be interesting to see if the heavier snow that’s just 5 miles south in Norwell makes it up to Hingham. My wife also confirmed the light snow.

  55. Snowing pretty good here now. Not quite moderate but a very good steady
    light snow on the heavier side of light, it I could describe it that way. 😀

  56. Tom is this correct?

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 53s54 seconds ago
    [1115 am] Thanks for the report. RT @jsimp1610_: 1/4 mile visibility #BrantRock 1.2 inches of fluff.

      1. Oh, I agree with the snow amt, but, I havent had visibility that low. But, Brant Rock on top of the ocean, with a bit more wind can be a different thing. My visibility has been somewhere around a mile, give or take a bit.

      1. DS, as of now and it’s a long way off, it would be MOSTLY SNOW,
        with a possible brief mix/changeover up to about the MA Pike or there about. Wherever it mixes or changes, it WILL go right back to snow. AGAIN it’s Tuesday and this event is progged to start
        late Saturday sometime. Long way off.

    2. Shhhh

      DON’T LIKE THE LOOKS of that one at all.
      Even if there is a brief change for parts of the area, MORE Arctic Air
      will be infused into the system. It will go right back to snow.

  62. GFS solution is now much more amplified, similar to the Euro but a colder solution with offshore track. Still enough warm air gets in to cause ptype issues south of the Pike and I-84

  63. Right on the edge of precipitation shield now. Snow is lightening up a bit.
    Should be ending soon. Close, but NO CIGAR!

    1. Good luck with that. Do you have to drive much down there?
      There is road construction up the gumpy. Watch your GPS it will
      tell you to go where there is currently no road. Was there a year ago.
      Pretty hairy.

      1. Thanks for the tip OS. Fortunately, no driving this time. Company is providing for all trans.

        At least I’ll get a break from the Artic for the week

          1. OMG, it’s gonna follow me there. WTF.

            Then again, that IS 38 degrees warmer than my house was Monday morning.

  65. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 35m35 minutes ago
    video coming. two threast..neg trof tomorrow swinging thru NE can produce a quick couple of inches…then we have wknd.

  66. And this will not be a powdery fluff snow….heavy wet stuff in areas that stay all snow or mixed snow/sleet/rain in southern areas….even worse. Tough to remove. Particularly when you need to try and lift it up on top of 6 foot snowbanks!

    1. 6 foot? try 10-12 feet around here. It’s one thing hoisting a shovel full
      of fluff, quite another with cement!

  67. I’d like to say we have turned the corner, but I won’t. A rogue snow storm is always a possibility. After all, it’s New England.

  68. I’ll propose that the weekend event doesnt happen as currently shown.

    I’m not implying for the better or worse, just that it will be something different than that.

    3. It shall be interesting to watch it evolve in the coming days.

      Could you imagine impacts on school/work next Monday. That would be absolutely depressing.

  69. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 5m5 minutes ago
    It has now snowed 18 of the last 23 days in Boston. Yup. #snangry

  71. Perhaps the changed solution for next weekend is a result of a sharper solution to the next few days.

    While it doesnt provide more snow to us the next few days, there’s a sharper trof, closed low passing by Thursday on the 12z vs 00z. The surface low reflection is closer to the coast and comes into New Brunswick, as opposed to Nova Scotia and ….

    If you change the flow slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, it probably has some affect on what happens Saturday and Sunday.

  73. I am not taking any model seriously right now. Last Thursday was a blizzard until 48 hours then we got a dusting.

  74. re; Today’s Snow

    Don’t know what’s up, but Rada echoes just jogged to the NW, extending
    the snow for awhile longer.

  75. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 8m8 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Fat Flakes returned Dennis MA, expecting this snowfall to also over achieve. Not sure if it will really stop until Fri, 10″+ next 72+ hrs

    1. Lovely … Thats the general vicinity we’ll be in from Wednesday to Friday.

      Of course, I picked the place its likely to snow for another 3 days. /!?!&!@!!!@/!

      (It looks angrier when you use the symbols OS 🙂 🙂 )

  76. Before we even get to the weekend threat, we need to watch that sneaky coastal low which is going to develop and past just east of New England on Thursday. It appears on the GFS and Euro and wants to clip at least eastern MA.

    GFS still advertising a loaded coastal storm for next week as well. Timing is pushed back from mid to late week. Big push of arctic air follows in its wake.

    Unrelenting…

  77. 12z GGEM also on board for the weekend storm with a solid warning level event for all SNE. Though unlike the GFS, most of the action is focused on Saturday night. Its a bit of a colder solution too with mixing held to points south and east of PVD.

  78. Ok, the ruler’s telling me 3 inches, but …. there is so much air btwn the snow flakes, its laughable.

    So, I feel like maybe 2″ on I’d guess btwn .05 and .1 melted.

  79. Thanks for the links Mark and Old Salty.
    Looks like a solid 6-12 inches of snow. Way too early and a lot could change. Late last week GFS was showing 6-10 inches with this current storm system and were nowhere near that here in SNE. I don’t get excited about storms until winter weather alerts are issued.

  81. Looking at the EURO, 48 hrs ….

    1,000 mb low off the Cape …

    500mb feature looks sharper ….

    I dont know where this is headed in the next 24-36 hrs as we approach Thursday …..

    1. Just looked back 24 hrs ago to yesterday’s 12z at 72 hrs …

      Looked a low weaker and more offshore.

      This trend is headed in the wrong direction and its concerning that its 48 hrs away, which means something is now being better sampled probably.

      Are we going to have a 990 something by tomorrow with a shield of eastern New
      England snow ……..

  82. Thursday’s looking more interesting ….

    On the current radar, there seems to be snow developing just east of Springfield, into the Worcester area. I dont think the snow is just going to shut off as easily as it might look like it should.

    Its moderate to borderline heavy snow now, with visibility around 1/2 mile.

    I just cant believe what is happening.

      1. I really didnt think we’d get 2-4 from this storm today, John. I thought we might get 2-4 by tomorrow if it continues to snow lightly tonight. So now, I’m thinking Marshfield might end up with 3-6 inches by tomorrow morning.

        And then, as mentioned, Thursday might have some snow to offer and maybe again this weekend …..

        1. Would tomorrow be a better day to be off vs Thursday if it might snow . Thinking about hitting the Disney on ice show.

          1. Not sure what could happen Thursday, so, if you can hold off on a decision til you here from TK’s take on the weather or you can see Harvey tonight. I’m sure you will have better info then to make a choice.

            If you get to go to that, enjoy !!!

    2. I cannot allow it to snow on Thursday. I will be in a parking lot installing a new ATM all day and I am requesting it be at least 35 with some sun. Is that too much to ask?!?!?!?!

    1. I love his presentations. I love how he points out the 500Mb energy and what
      each piece plays in an evolving storm and how he does his best at accumulations. He generally is conservative with those. I don’t think he is a hypemaster, but
      OH does he LOVE the storms!

  84. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 20m20 minutes ago
    For all the people asking, no I don’t think there’s much, or any, rain with potential weekend storm. Snow, maybe some mixing SE.

  85. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 21s22 seconds ago
    At our office in Taunton, we have had 2.8″ of new snow today. Snow depth of 31″ with a water equivalent of 6.40″!

      1. Of course that’s really more like 6 feet compacted down to under 3, so the water equiv make sense. 🙂

  87. Hi all!
    Just letting you know that I had my Mom 911 my Dad to the hospital this afternoon. Some of you know and some of you may not know that he suffers from dementia and is in his early 90s and rather frail. I believe he has a bug and has become severely dehydrated so when I arrived to a phone call from mom I went to check and immediately suggested she get him to the hospital. I’ll be going up there at some point myself. I know you will all tell me not to worry about updating here but I will toss in an update since I’ll be waiting for news. Just got a car to fill with gas and one more walk to shovel in the mean time. Please send some good thoughts and prayers to my dad. Thanks everyone. 🙂

    2. Never ends. So sorry to hear.
      Hope that all turns out well.

      AND do NOT worry about here. We’ll fend for ourselves. No worries there!

  88. Sorry to hear that we will be thinking of you and your family. My dad just got out of the hospital for the same thing. A virus which turned into severe dehydration.

        1. I was wondering about a UTI. It does an awful job on folks with dimentia. But once meds take hold there is a huge turnaround

  89. I can’t believe what I am seeing on the 12z gfs. The all time record will go down imo. Bank on it. Also euro is showing very warm temps for rain on Monday and Tuesday. That’s not happening either. Shame the euro got so screwed up with the upgrade.

  90. So sorry to hear about your father; I’ll be thinking about you and your family as well. Don’t worry about us here; we can always look out the window if we’re not sure whether it’s snowing or sunny or what. Take good care.

  91. While I do think the Euro is out to lunch, I do see the GFS ensemble mean has a lot of warmer, more amped members for the weekend storm which is a bit concerning. The more amplified this system is, the better chance it is going to get rain/mixing involved. A somewhat weaker strung out system would support more cold and snow/mix. Just way to early at this point to pin down.

  98. Ok, what’s going on?

    I had to come into the office to hook up all of the computers and the switchboard now that things are dried out and new electrical run and new wall board.

    I finish up and look out the window and it’s snowing pretty good. The Radar has
    filled in completely. That storm was OUTTA HERE!

    Headed home. I wonder HOW long that will take.
    Streets are EXTREMELY CONSTRICTED!! UNREAL!!!!

    Later

    1. OS …. The 18z NAM simulated radar has more echoes in that Wednesday evening, overnight time frame, matching the period that the GFS and EURO now have some kind of low pressure closer to the Cape.

      Stay tuned ……..

  100. So very sorry to hear about your Dad, TK. You and your family are in my thoughts and extra prayers will surely be sent your way!

  102. I’m sorry to hear about your father, TK. Dehydration is common in the elderly. And actually common in us young folks, too, when we’re sick. I’ve been told that my migraines are sometimes triggered by slight dehydration.

    My prayers are with you and your father, TK.

  104. Weekend system looks mixed, at least from Boston to points south. The Euro model may be wrong, but it’s been hinting all along at a kernel of truth regarding the system’s pathway. Note also, the Arctic high comes in too late to ensure a more snowy scenario. Rain would not be good, but we must prepare for it, plus much warmer temperatures. They could soar Saturday night and Sunday morning well into the 40s (50s on the Cape) before crashing again Sunday night. This could mean (I emphasize “could” – nothing is set in stone at this point) lots of melting, fog, street flooding, etc … on Sunday, following by a flash freeze.

  106. Prayers here, TK. Please give dad and mom all your attention. And take care of yourself! Don’t worry about the blog!

  113. Snow won’t quit.

    Even here a good 1 1/2 inches so far. Boston is NOW OFFICALLY in the #2
    spot for Season Snowfall, even IF we haven’t seen an official post yet.

  114. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 7m7 minutes ago
    Band of moderate to heavy snow pushing in from ocean folks. This could give 1-2 inches. Green area is heaviest.

    1. …a band of moderate to heavy snow has developed across eastern
      massachusetts…

      the bands of heavier snow were confined along the south shore and
      moving west. some areas south and southwest of boston may pick
      up a quick inch or 2 of snow through early evening. motorists
      should drive with extra caution this evening.

    1. NO NO NO NO!!!!

      At least it was the 18Z run,

      Let’s see what 0Z says.

      We cannot have 1-2 inches of rain on this snow.
      There is enough to absorb it for sure, but that is a crap load
      of weight Addded to the snow. Any on roofs WILL certainly cause
      more collapses.

      1. Yes, that would not be good.

        We’ll see.

        I wasnt sold on the 12z solution and I’m not sold on this either.

        I wouldnt be surprised if in the coming days, the next arctic high ends up pushing all of this more south and east to the point where we dont get a thing. Who knows, thats my wild, current guess.

        1. Sat rebounds quickly to 35-40F. Cold frontal passage and the low scoots out underneath us with DC seeing rain to snow.

        2. I don’t see this thing being suppressed.

          It WILL be one of 3.

          1. Full Blown Snow Event
          2. Snow to mix/rain to Snow
          3. RAINORAMA

  117. There is another batch of SNOW forming out in the ocean ready to move in
    directly behind this first batch. Not sure which areas, but at least the South Shore
    is in the cross hairs and perhaps all the up to Boston.

  118. It’s has been advertising a rain event for the last week or two. I believe only recently it’s been trending colder. I think this will end up with a lot more rain than we want. Let’s hope for OTS solution.

  119. Regardless of whether its next weekend or thereafter, I think we’re headed for water issues.

    Its gotten too late now into February and we’re up against the climatological clock.

    30 days or so is the equinox, a nearly 47 degree sun angle, our deep snow pack is going to go quickly at some point here. And to think we have another 3 days coming where a flake wont melt ….. Not good.

  121. TK alluded to the possibility of a rainstorm a few weeks ago. GFS had been showing rainstorm for a while before changing its tune about 4 days ago. The Euro, meanwhile, has been consistently calling for rain for a while. GFS is returning to its rain prediction. Worrisome development. This said, we’re still 100 hours out. Lots can change.

      1. Yeah, 1.5″ rain in Worcester and over 2″ in Boston. Yikes.

        Lot’s of time between now and then. Frankly if it’s meant to go inside, send it up through the lakes where we get a 40 degree storm with a quarter of that precip. CAD would save us in that scenario.

    2. Wait a minute. You were riding it down the back stretch with the last storm, but now it’s NO GOOD. Which is it? 😀 😀 😀

  124. I am not sure CAD would come into play here retrac as there is no high to the north to lock in the cold air. The arctic high pressure is over the northern plains. It is all going to depend on the orientation of the ULL – it needs to be a bit further east to present this from surging up here and driving the track more off shore. Still way too early to pin down, but the 18z GFS will most likely not be what ends up happening. After all, it was the 18z and it did just shift the track and heaviest snow north by 100 miles in one run. There are a wide range of solutions in the ensembles so many possible outcomes on the table.

  125. FWIW, NWS Taunton is still going with a colder solution with snow interior and mix near the south coast based on teleconnections and persistence of pattern.

  126. Ut oh!!!! Flooding issues are not that far away. Still a week away but lots of rain this weekend could be big trouble. It’s just getting worst.

  127. Everyone in my class was freaking out today about “18 inches of snow on Friday.” I’m like HUH???? They all pulled out their phones and said it was on their “weather apps.” My goodness…

    1. Emily the guy who drove us home today said the same thing. I didn’t argue because I’ve learned those who buy into it really like the drama

  129. ‏@ericfisher
    WE’RE MOVING UP! Just made it to the 2nd snowiest season ever recorded in #Boston. Gunning for you 95/96.

  130. Also according to Eric Fisher, the average temperature in Boston so far this month is 18.2 degrees. That is .7 degrees warmer than February 1934, which is the coldest month ever recorded in the city.

    1. Saw that. WE have a shot at breaking it, however, Eric thought we would fall short and end up top 5 (Or bottom 5 if you will). 😀

  131. And one more from Mr. Fisher:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 5h 5 hours ago
    We’ve got a pretty realistic shot at seeing an entire month where every single day has below average temps.

  133. Another 3 hr ride home tonight . I hate melena cass blvd. I’ll be driving in for the next month ugh!!! Nice of work though anybody who needs to park at one of the work garages can do so at a discounted price. Vicki how did Mack do. I was going to post here let’s meet but I was straight out today shovling out the building fire hose conectors.

    1. Mac did good, John. So far the lung is staying inflated and drain is working He comes home first thing tomorrow. I would have loved to meet up. We will be in again in a couple of weeks if not before. I’ll let you know.

  134. For Sunday, 41 and 38 are the rain solutions. 32 is the cold/snow solution. My guess is that if it rains with a southeast wind 41 will be too low. We know how quickly a southerly breeze can push the temperatures up near 50. In itself, a 50 degree day would be great. Lots of melting and some minor flooding, but not worrisome. Adding rain to the mix (pardon the pun), however, makes it a major problem.

    Let’s hope for a minor snowstorm with a low well offshore, or a lakes cutter with not much precipitation. The in-between is what has me concerned.

    By the way, did any of you read about the young woman who froze to death Sunday near Mt. Jefferson (between Adams and Jefferson). She was the second death in two months in that area of the Presidential Range. Whatever possessed her to hike alone to the summit of Mt. Washington on perhaps the coldest and windiest and snowiest day of the year. Also, why did her husband let her do it. He dropped her off at the base of the mountain! While I feel badly for this loss of life, it was avoidable. I know that area well. It’s beautiful, but inhospitable, even in summer. I was there last summer and thought to myself, I’m truly in the middle of nowhere. The summit of Mt. Washington is 4 miles away. Madison hut is 6 miles away, and Lakes of the Clouds hut is also 6 miles away. No trees, no shelter, and you’re on west (therefore windiest) side of the mountain. If a storm happens up there, you’re in trouble.

    1. That is insane, I had not heard that. I hiked Adams last summer by myself and was considering altering my plans just because there was a 30-40% chance of scattered T-storms that afternoon. You don’t want to get caught above tree line on a bad day. It is very disorienting when the summits are in the clouds or there is blowing snow. Add in life threatening wind chills and it is a recipe for disaster.

  135. Made it to NYC just fine, only snowy until crossing into CT. Sunny the rest of the way. I don’t know why, but its very strange seeing patches of grass down here. I feel like its been months since ive seen any ground vegetation. There’s maybe a 6″ snowpack down here with exposed ground on slopes. Amazing variation in snowcover.

  138. Hi all!

    Updates…

    Dad was admitted to the hospital. He was very dehydrated from a bug he caught. They ruled out a minor stroke which is good news. They did find a sizable kidney stone which they were surprised he never complained about as well as a prostate infection with no specific known cause. He looked a lot better this evening than when he was taken in the ambulance this afternoon after some IV hydration. He’s being treated for the other conditions now and resting. Not sure how long he’ll be there or where it goes from here.

    Colder solution is highly likely for Sunday. And I just posted a comprehensive new blog. See you there. 🙂

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