“Inching” Closer To #1

163 Comments

10:30PM

COMMENTARY…
For many of you, the only good thing about this month of February 2015 is that it only has 28 days and will end. Although you cannot deny the fascinating aspect of this incredibly cold and snowy month, one that nobody quite saw coming to this extent. Back in January when I tossed out dates for a target period for the majority of our snow for this Winter (January 24-March 8), I never envisioned what was getting set to unfold. I forecast a “milder” February from what we had seen in January, not something that is all that unusual even with the expected snowy pattern. But instead the temperature went even lower, and Boston has a shot at having only the second month on record coming in with an average temperature below 20F. The other was February 1934, the month in which Boston recorded its all time record low temperature of -18 in February 9. Though that record will not fall, many others have and a couple more are within reach, including the record coldest month and the all time snowiest Winter (and even if we don’t reach that in February, there is still March). Boston moved into a tie for #2 on the snowiest Winters list with the 0.6 inch snowfall Tuesday, bringing the total to the same as the 1993-1994 Winter at 96.3 inches and is within 1 foot from the #1 spot of 107.6 inches from the 1995-1996 Winter. This record is now very much within reach and may indeed fall before the end of the 7-day forecast period covered in this blog…

SUMMARY…
The active and cold weather pattern goes on, and the atmosphere continues to find every way possible to snow on Boston with more on the way. Tuesday’s snow was a double deal, though not amounting to too much in the city and up to a few inches along the coast mainly to the south of the city, and came from a passing storm well to the south and an onshore flow which brought moisture off the ocean. Wednesday, another storm system forming on an offshore boundary, though being too far offshore to bring more precipitation directly, will be the parent of an inverted trough, or a Norlun trough, which will grow northwestward from the passing storm on Wednesday and inject an area of snow into eastern MA during late afternoon and evening. This trough will then migrate northward through northeastern MA and southeastern NH and eventually into southern Maine and will the focus for enhanced snowfall and some potential significant accumulation by early Thursday. Though it looks like Boston itself will escape the heaviest, the North Shore northward may not. And in addition to this, another low pressure area will develop just east of Cape Cod by early Thursday and then track northward through the Gulf of Maine by Thursday night. This system will be intensifying and its back-side snow showers will likely deliver some more scattered accumulation to southern NH and parts of MA. Oh and it won’t be done with us even when it’s done snowing on us, as it delivers another batch of Arctic air for Thursday night and Friday. Have you had enough yet? Well yes or no, we’ll be in for another storm threat which will be arriving over the weekend, most likely Sunday. The big question with this one is whether or not it will track in such a fashion to allow relatively milder air in from the south to introduce a mix or rain, or whether it will will track far enough south to keep colder air entrenched for a snowier outcome. At the moment I’m leaning toward the colder outcome, but at 4 days away there is plenty of time to fine tune this. Either way, a return to dry weather but more cold is likely early next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers with spotty light additional accumulation. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers but an area of more numerous and locally moderate snow showers developing in Metro Boston to the North Shore late afternoon. Scattered coatings of snow but accumulations of 1-2 inches possible in the evening from Boston northward especially closer to the coast. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with additional accumulation of few inches in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. A few light snow showers possible elsewhere with little additional accumulation. Lows 10-15. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 20-25. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 15.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely except possible mix South Coast. Low 15. High 30.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

163 thoughts on ““Inching” Closer To #1”

  1. Would like to thank you T.K for hosting this blog because without you we would not have a site like this. We would be stuck with those knuckle heads on cbs4 website. It’s nice to be on a blog without a buch of trouble makers. We may not always agree but atleast everyone on here gets along.

      1. I think it’s a lock. As I stated earlier, I thought we’d be counting down to find out if we’d have 3 Boston Winters in a row with above normal snow for the first time in almost 40 years, not that we’d be counting down to a record. But here we are…

  4. Thank you Tk and EXCELLENT Discussion.

    I see for the Weekend you are leaning towards the COLDER solution.
    The GFS solution would be a disaster. Looks like the 6Z run of the GFS has
    trended “just” A bit farther South, but still giving the Boston area RAIN.

    1. GFS solution

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021806&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=120

      CMC solution

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

      UKMET solution

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

      Euro

      http://i.imgur.com/q37Oc1e.png

      The big 4 ALL have a warm/rainy solution SO FAR.

      Don’t like the looks of this. As much as we DON’T need more SNOW,
      I think it would be better than 1-2 inches of RAIN. OTS does NOT look
      to be in the cards, that’s for sure.

      Not sure a COLDER solution is in the cards yet either. We shall see what
      the 12Z runs show. One thing this year, there has been much model wiggling
      going on.

  5. From NWS RE: Later today/tomorrow

    SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY…MOSTLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY…HAS
    POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST…ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ESSEX COUNTY. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ALONG THE TROUGH BUT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER AWAY. AS THIS IS A MESOSCALE FEATURE AND AS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO
    WHERE THE TROUGH WILL SET UP…WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY…AND ESSEX COUNTY WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IF ONE IS NEEDED. POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE COD. STAY TUNED.

  7. UGH YUCK NASTY all words that come to mind with that weekend storm.
    Hoping it trends colder. Going to be clearing the sewer at my mom’s so the water has somewhere to go should we get a rainorama.

  8. Well if all the models said snow instead of rain people wouldn’t be questioning it. So I am guessing we are getting rain if even the gfs is showing it.

  9. No I think we would be all saying it’s probably going to go OTS. I think we are most likely going to see more rain than snow out of this one.

  11. I am bit surprised that the eastern trough is going to retrograde enough to bring that low up west of the forecast area. The ensemble means of GFS/ECMWF/GGEM are all further south and east, more strung out, and cooler. Of course the means are obviously influenced by the minority of individual members that are well south and east and even a complete miss. If it was snow and the GFS/ECMWF/UK/GGEM op runs were all fairly close like this we would be all in. But in this cold, snowy 3 weeks, I am not ready to commit to this warmer, wetter idea yet.

    1. Thank you for your thoughts on this. Sounds like you echo TK’s thoughts.

      In your professional opinion, do you agree that More Snow, as much as we don’t need that, would be better than RAIN?

      Thanks

  12. Depends on the amount. Another 12-15″ of snow is going to further cripple the city and is only putting off the inevitable melt which based on the snow depth and time of season will certainly cause significant hydro problems, whether this happens February 22nd or March 6th. If we get 18 hours of temps in the low 40’s and a 1/2″ of rain you are not going to deal with catastrophe, just as you won’t if we get 3-6″ of snow. 12 plus inches of snow or 1-2″ of rain, well that will be different.

    1. 12+ or 1-2 inches of rain comparison is what I intended.
      Which of those would be worse in your opinion.

      I guess we’ll have to deal with it one way or the other.

      My Ice Dam was LEAKING again yesterday. Roof is too high
      for someone of my age to reach. I mean I need a 40 footer to get up there
      and I’m afraid of falling off. I’m just too OLD for this CRAP.

      Hired someone to clear the roof again and to attack the ice dam that
      is leaking. They can’t come until tomorrow. I fear a whole lot of leaking
      going on today, especially IF we get any sunshine.

      1. OS sorry to hear your roof is leaking again. Been there too many times to not know exactly how you feel and it is a nasty feeling. Did they determine that the rubber membrane was not torn??

        1. Thanks for asking Vicki.

          Don’t know. Not even sure IF we would be able
          to tell until ALL of the snow is gone.

          Did everything go OK the other day in Boston? Hope So.

    2. Well said. By the way, February sun is quite warm. There’s melting going on right now as a result. And, I’m skeptical about the forecast high temperatures next week being only in the 20s. My guess is the sun will force an overshoot into the 30s, which will expedite the melt.

      1. I agree with that. Almost ALL forecast highs recently have
        been under done. I was out clearing my Deck On Monday Afternoon. That sun was TOASTY and doing a ton of melting, even though temp was only 19 at the time. BTW, that 19 was a good 5-6 degrees ABOVE forecasted HIGH confirming EXACTLY what you said.

        Today’s high supposed to be just under 30. Would NOT surprise me to see it reach MID thirties. We shall see.

  13. Of all the scenarios, I’m rooting for the EURO.

    1008 mb, not too intense, I’d imagine it doesnt come with a ton of precip.

    Opportunity to maybe get 12-18 hrs around or somewhat above 40F.

    I’d like to see this snow depth come down and start to minimize the hazards (weight on roofs, driving conditions, etc) that come along with it.

    On the road to Cape Cod. Maybe the snow will only be ankle deep down there. 🙂

    1. Euro NOT depicting too much precip, so IF it’s going to rain, that
      is the desired solution.

      Still some time for things to change. We shall see.

      It’s hard for me to extrapolate with the NAM, but at 84 hours, it “looks” like
      it “Might” just sneak far enough South of us to prevent a rainorama and either
      be all snow or a snow/mix situation. Waiting for complete 12Z run.

    2. It’s coming down already due to compacting, some evaporation, and (minimal thus far) melting. You’re right. There’s still a lot of snow out there. But, I noticed this morning the height of the snowpack is a good 10 inches lower than 2 days ago, mostly due to compacting and some evaporation. The Euro solution (rain, 40s, fog) for this weekend will eat away at the snow very quickly. Not the snow-piles, but the snow covering the grass. Of course, we don’t know if that solution will verify.

      1. Joshua – we are down maybe five inches, but I did also notice that it is compacting. I also figured it had some but very little to do with melting as I notice it more on the north side of the house that gets zero sun.

  14. Woke up to my first ice dam leak this morning. First ever since we built the house 23 years ago. Fortunately it is near a steeper part of the roof where the snow is melting more rapidly — although not that fast at all. Most frustrating winter ever.

    1. Can you reach it with a snow rake? I don’t know if this helps, but at least on our roof, the thinner layer of snow/ice melts behind the ice dam and forms a slush and that is what finds its way in. If I used the roof rake to pull the slush over the dam, it seems to help and in some cases stop the leak.

      Good luck.

        1. Don’t shoot the messenger. Just posting what they
          put out. Did you see the RGEM snow map.
          Gives 3 inches for Boston, about 2 for Woburn. 😀

  17. OK, 12Z NAM is complete.

    Here is the surface with a low center over Arkansas.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021812&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    Here is the 500MB chart

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021812&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    200MB chart

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021812&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    I’ve had lots of trouble extrapolating these, but my initial gut feeling is that
    it would be CLOSE for snow vs rain here. If that wind field buckles in the slightest
    then it is RAIN. IF it remains pretty much as is, it may be snow.

    Can anyone else have a crack at this and report their thoughts?

    1. If its close it might be a situation like back on February 2nd where that mix rain line came close to Boston before collapsing
      later in the day. Reading the discussion out of Upton it going with that idea of snow to mix rain back to snow to close out this
      storm sytem just like how that storm played out back on the 2nd.

  18. From NWS out of Upton, NY for tomorrow. This might be the reason for those snow totals your mentioning.
    NEXT WRINKLE IN FORECAST IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY IN
    RESPONSE TO COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAPE COD AND PASSING OF
    UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING IN ALOFT –
    WILL HAVE AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
    AROUND 700 HPA THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT THINGS SNOW SHOWERS
    FOR NOW.

      1. I totally Agree. I count how many shades to the area of interest
        and then consult the key. I find the blues are OK, but when you
        get into the shades of the purplish color, NO CLUE!!!!

  23. Rain looks more likely this weekend. I’m also surprised at how far west the low goes. Looks like the Arctic high is taking its time to get here and the low is moving at rapid speed. Should the timing be reversed we’d be in another snow situation. If the low goes even further west we’ll actually be in luck, as it’ll be in the low to mid 50s on Sunday with rain showers, melting and fog but nothing disastrous.

  25. Dad doing ok. On antibiotics for infection and meds for the stone. But he is rehydrated and resting.

  26. As one of my colleagues said, the weekend threat will separate model huggers from meteorologists. 😉

    2. Good to hear your father is doing better!

      Sounds like you think the models are off regarding the weekend storm. What are they not accounting for?

        1. Thank goodness for that! I’m not sure I’d have enough pans for all the leaks if it did rain.
          The roof melts seem to be working! No leaking so far today.

    3. LOVE IT!!!

      Hope you don’t think we’re all model huggers, although we like
      to post their output for discussion. 😀

      There are METS out there who are! And that’s a fact Jack!

  27. I don’t know but I don’t see how his low doesn’t track either further south or a new low forms off Delmarva and locks in some cold here for the weekend.

  31. TK, glad to hear your father is doing better.

    Question on what you said above, how will the snow on the ground make any difference in preventing a rain storm if the low tracks up over Syracuse as the models are suggesting? The low level cold wont hold on very long when 850mb temps are surging over 0C up into northern New England. Initial period of snow and ice, yes, but the column would soon be overwhelmed without any strong CAD.

    I am not saying I buy a track that far west or the warmer solution either. I think the track ends up back farther southeast and we end up with more of a wintry mix. But that significant track shift is the only way we are going to get back to the snowier scenario. Are you implying that the air over the northeast will be colder than modeled and that will help “steer” the storm more south and east?

    2. Agree with your thinking, Mark. But who am I. Just a guy who’s been on a prediction losing streak for a month!

      In any case, Sunday’s event reminds me of a similar one in late January 1978 – prior to the blizzard. We had a major snowstorm on or around the 18th of January, followed by some serious cold. Then, a rainstorm happened with a 36-hour warm-up. I mean a big-time warm up. I believe it reached 60 in Boston, only to come crashing down after the storm had exited. I’m not saying 60 degrees will happen. But, the further west the low goes the more of a southerly component it’ll introduce.

  32. FWIW, the 12z UKMET has the low over Buffalo at 1002 mb. Rainorama but at least its a weak system.

    12z GEFS on the other hand is farther south and colder than the operational. Hopefully this has some merit, though as JMA said above it could just be the couple of members that are easterly outliers that are shifting the mean.

  33. I sent Eric Fisher the pic of the snowflakes and he said he will try and put in on tonight’s newscast 😀

    2. This is what I get out of that discussion:

      a stronger storm (driven by mid-level processes and almost totally independent of snow depth) could care less about a couple feet of snow on the ground. Rain to Montreal!

  35. If I had to guess…

    *Rainstorm this weekend, although it may start as snow/ice because of the snow on the ground and cold air in place. And I’ll admit, I’m taking the models into account; tough to see every single one of them being wrong at this range, but you never know I guess. Precip probably being overdone too, whatever falls likely won’t be as much as initially advertised.
    *Snowstorm a week or so from now, probably a pretty big one. Northern and southern streams will get together on that one, could be a classic. Of course if they don’t connect, that fouls it up. Might just be some snow showers from a clipper.

  38. Well I don’t KNOW what Meteorology Harvey is using, but it is PRETTY CLEAR
    he EXPECTS RAIN:

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 43m43 minutes ago
    Some snow develops during Sat. Nt., then changes to fr. rain or rain Sunday #wcvb

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 41m41 minutes ago
    Monitoring Sun. rainfall…. a chilly, heavy rain would be dangerous for roof load #wcvb

  43. Its looking like a RAINORAMA for the weekend. Still got to watch for any shifts in track as that will make a big difference. I know I cleared the snow from the sewer near my mom’s today in anticipation of a rainorama so that way the water could flow easily into the sewer.

  46. WxWatcher alluded to this above, but there is a pretty impressive setup appearing on all models later next week into the first few days of March for a potential big east coast snowstorm. Signal has been pretty consistent. And it looks like this storm may be the event that ushers in a pattern change.

    1. Which would be right in line with what TK was thinking.

      I hate to say it, but I think we see pretty substantial rains this weekend.

      Clear. Those. Roofs!!!

      1. The inland track seems heavily favored at this point. Best we can hope for is the less amplified GFS solution which keeps the liquid precip amounts down and maintains the colder surface temps. Showery rains in the mid 30’s will be much easier to deal with than heavy rains and temps pushing 50!

    2. Whoever put that together CANNOT SPELL or does NOT comprehend the differences among:

      to
      too
      two

      Freakin HILARIOUS!!!!

      2. Well I can feel for them because my spelling is horid . I never get the to or too right so always use to. Luckily you guys don’t mind.

        1. I’ve said if before. Macs uncle was an MIT grad. He was Sr. VP of one of the largest companies in this country. His spelling was atrocious. You are in good company John 🙂

  48. Boston Nexrad Composite radar display showing the beginnings of the Norlun trough, although technically to be considered a true NORLUN, it has to remain stationary
    for 6 hours. This one will be moving, but we don’t have to get that technical.

    I guess we could call it a NORLUNY Trough or a NORLUNISH trough? 😀

    In any case, it’s coming soon. Will the SNOW reach East coastal MA?
    We’ll find out really soon.

  52. For all that snow Boston better beat that record and get the snowiest season on record. It doesn’t look like it will happen with the weekend storm but that other storm mid to late week next week MIGHT be the one that does it. Will see long way off.

    1. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 17m17 minutes ago
      Some snow starting to fill in Boston area/North Shore. Careful driving during PM commute. #travel

    1. If the low goes as far west as Buffalo, it may take some time for it to hit 50 but it will likely hit 50 or above in Boston. Not good. Especially if accompanies by significant rainfall. This will lead to some major issues as the snow will melt furiously fast. Problems will include roofs, significant street flooding, and the ensuing flash freezes.

  60. Boy traffic for the 10 am show at TD was bad we left at 8 and and my son and I got inside just after 10 as my wife insisted she would park. Well she missed the first half as had to park about a mile away. Than leaving we sat in gridlock up by MGH. And to boot while leaving the garage apparently we wete not fast enough strapping in cause a jerk was knocking on the window and had some words which led to us having words ugh!!!!! This traffic is the worst I have ever seen.

    2. Are we about to get SCHOOLED? A REAL learning experience?

      Please tell me so.

      BTW, WHY is HARVEY so hell bent on RAIN?

  64. I’m sure this has been addressed before, and the answer is likely quite complicated, but how does a snow pack prevent a storm from cutting inland?

    1. I could give you an answer, but I might Screw it up, so I’ll let the expert
      answer that. Hint. Think REFRIGERATOR. 😀

    1. 1-3 total over the period from now to about midday tomorrow. Most of the stuff will be north of here.

  67. I see NEW echos POPPING Just of the South Coast Of SNE and headed DUE NORTH.
    Watching that in conjunction with echos moving through NYC and into CT PLUS
    the SNOW SQUALLS in NY state and PA.

    3. That is the energy that triggers the new low just east of us tomorrow. Comes through here is a cluster of snow showers through late morning.

  68. TK, regarding wknd storm -will the warmer air aloft (if that’s the case) cause freezing rain/sleet issues in the Boston area, or do you think it will remain all snow?

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