Oh Low!

209 Comments

9:02PM

SUMMARY…
Norluns, low pressure centers, upper troughs. It’s all about low pressure areas through Thursday, basically as described in the previous blog with the inverted trough lifting from northeastern MA through eastern NH into southern Maine as broad upper low pressure crosses the region through Thursday and ignites another surface low just east of New England by early Thursday which then move northward. After the snow showers occur as expected, we’ll get a blast of Arctic air with wind Thursday night and Friday. We’re still watching the next storm system for the weekend, the track of which is in question, and as a result so is the amount of milder air that gets involved. Been leaning toward the colder solution for this event Saturday night and Sunday because of the weakness of the expected low and the tremendous cold snowpack in place. We may see warm enough air come in aloft to result in sleet and freezing rain, and even plain rain in some areas by Sunday as it does turn somewhat milder, but this will be a tricky forecast right up until the event occurs. Dry and cold weather is expected to return Monday and last through Tuesday. An offshore storm will threaten the region with some snow next Wednesday but it is, of course, too far away to figure any details with that threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, most numerous in Essex County MA northward. Accumulation of 1 to 3 inches Essex County MA into NH, less than 1 inch most other areas. Lows in the 10s. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the morning. Additional accumulation of up to 1 inch. Partly sunny with isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-30 by midday, falling back through the 20s in the afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 0. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill well below 0.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/ice/rain. Low 20. High 30 north to 40 far south.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

209 thoughts on “Oh Low!”

  2. Thank you, TK. I’ve never in my lifetime seen so many days below freezing in February. We may not beat 1934 (30 years before I was born), but I will always remember this month for the cold, maybe even more than the snow (close to a third of the snow fell in January).

      1. I’m part Eskimo, or so my father once said. So, I enjoy the cold. But, I must say I’ve not yet experienced such sustained cold in February. In January, many times. But February tends to be a month of gradual change in which the temperature oscillates (though not as much as March).

        By the way, Vicki, your point on the snow-pack holding together better in the suburbs is a good one. Snow melts faster in the big city. I’m amazed at how much is still on the ground in places like the Public Garden.

        1. There was a winter in the early 70s; I think it was 73-74. Snorkel parkas were in. I lived in Cambridge. It was brutal to walk outside at night for weeks, as I recall. The Charles froze over and there was a Sunday when the river between Lars Anderson and Weeks Bridges was filled with skaters and hockey games. I spent an afternoon playing hockey on the river on a beautiful day– I would bet it was either late January or February. I remember thinking I could not believe the continuous days and night of wicked cold.

    1. And a prediction for Marathon Monday. Partly cloudy and 50s won’t do. Precision, please (eg, 58, partly cloudy, sea-breeze developing, cooling Boston down to 52 by 2pm). Additionally, I need a forecast for Memorial Day weekend (all 3 days, please). July 4th would be useful to know as well. Will I need to carry an umbrella to the Esplanade in case T-storms develop as the cold front finally cools things down in Boston from the late June/early July heat wave. Finally, please indicate whether an autumnal chill will wreck my planned cook-out for Labor Day. Or will the cold air hold off until the first Tuesday of September. While you’re at it, TK, please tell us what our chances are for a white Christmas in 2015. I’m dying to know.

  5. Tanks TK. Glad your father is doing better. Early thoughts on my ride back from FL this weekend? Current plan is to leave Sarasota at 5am Sat and get to Baltimore around 7pm and then Baltimore to Boston Sun am.

      1. Ok. Keep me posted if you don’t mind. you always tell it like it is. I could always go the entire way Saturday but would rather not.

        1. I know it is all relative but there is a windchill advisory in Sarasota tonight and tomorrow morning and a freeze watch too! Felt mild to us though after the winter up there.

  6. Thanks TK! I am so looking forward to my commute to Allston tomorrow! And I am sure I will have no problem finding parking near our branch. Ugh!

    1. It is odd. Every time I see progress…defined as roof melting or walkway drying out…we get more snow. Like clockwork.

  8. I am a student in this area and new to your site… This page has been so helpful over the last few weeks! I’m flying out of Logan next Wednesday – here’s hoping the threat with next Wednesday’s storm turns out to be minimal!

    1. Welcome!
      I’m hoping it evolves more offshore. But the way things have been going…we’ll see.

  11. Weird, trying to post a link to an advisory for the trough setting up in Maine, but it won’t post. I think when certain types of links are posted, it requires moderation before the comment can be posted. Not sure why though. So, I am cutting it and pasting it here in case anyone is interested.

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015

    Areas affected, srn maine

    concerning, heavy snow

    valid 190359Z – 190900Z

    summary, band of snow centered over york county should intensify
    overnight with rates possibly reaching 2-3 in/hr as it shifts slowly
    east.

    discussion, 03Z surface analysis placed a 1006 mb mesolow near the
    juxtaposition of the ny/vt/ma border with a trough extending E to
    near the me/nh coastal border. a nnw/sse-oriented band of probable
    moderate to heavy snow has developed just N of this trough centered
    across york county. the leading edge of cooling cloud tops has
    become coincident with this band in the 0330-0345Z ir images. this
    lobe of ascent ahead of a shortwave impulse centered over the hudson
    valley will yield cyclogenesis along the nearshore waters of the new
    england coast overnight. strengthening convergence along the
    inverted surface trough amidst a plume of steep mid-level lapse
    rates of 7-8 deg c/km sampled from 700-500 mb in 00Z gyx/alb/okx/buf
    raobs should result in intensifying snowfall rates. given the narrow
    nature of the heavy snow and gradual ewd evolution, this band will
    probably only reach the mid coast by 12Z.

    1. If the link size is too big, WordPress will flag it, but I didn’t get anything in the pending folder. It may have been flagged as spam. I’ll check.

      Certain settings on WP are a pain to deal with so just let me know if something you try to post doesn’t take.

    3. As Mark stated, Euro wants to get us good next week, but with it’s track record
      this Winter, I wouldn’t rely on this solution just yet. There is at least some support
      from GFS and CMC, so it’s certainly a watcher. We shall see.

      But just for giggles, here is the Euro for next Wednesday at 1PM:

      http://i.imgur.com/8pzwsA1.png

  12. Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 3h 3 hours ago
    Saturday we’ll break yet another record. The 19th day without hitting 32F in Boston, most ever recorded in a month

  13. 0z Euro is WAY south and colder for the weekend storm. It’s depicting a weaker strung out system. Mostly snow and frozen precip. GEFS and UKMET also leaning weaker, colder and less amplified. Looks like this threat may have come 360. Good call by TK to stay the course with this one and avoid the model hugging temptation.

  14. Also, 0z Euro crushes SNE with an all out blizzard next Wednesday and Thursday! GFS has the coastal hitting us as well but not to the extent of the Euro. Boston annihilates the snow record if this verifies.

  16. About 2 inches feel in the city. Got the call around midnight and stopped snowing around 2:30/ 3am.

  17. Well I guess we just moved into sole possession 2nd place for snowiest winter. Artic air moving in so there will be Wind Chill Advisories from 3 AM to 10 AM on Friday … sub zero wind chill temps. Not so sure any more about this weekend being mainly a rain event … could easily see the following equation: (track wobble + a weak low + snow cover cooling) = (more snow, more mix and less rain). I am not sure which one of those 3 … snow, mix or rain … is worse. And I put my hands over my eyes when looking at the models for the middle of next week. Ugh!!

    1. I Hear what Joshua has been saying about compaction etc.

      I have been outside each day, admiring the snow piles and snow on the ground.
      Out here in JP, has not dropped much at all, sure a little bit, but not that much. HUGELY DEEP SNOW PACK.
      Trying to walk in my back yard, it’s up to my waist. I was trying to view around the house for squirrel evidence and got stuck and fell. I couldn’t get up.
      Luckily I was close enough to a back entrance with a railing I could use as
      leverage and was able to get up.

      I friend tried to clear her dryer vent and got stuck and had to be rescued by the fire dept.

      Crazy times! Crazy times!

  19. Looking like we are going to have a good dose of rain coming Sunday, long range past 8-10 days changes to a milder pattern.

    We will be ready to start lime visits by March 9th or March 16th, March to me looks like it’s going to be average to slightly above average. It’s not far away now, hope everyone has a great day!! 🙂

  20. Sorry, This is a Re-post as I accidentally somehow got it posted a ways above here.

    As Mark stated, Euro wants to get us good next week, but with it’s track record
    this Winter, I wouldn’t rely on this solution just yet. There is at least some support
    from GFS and CMC, so it’s certainly a watcher. We shall see.

    But just for giggles, here is the Euro for next Wednesday at 1PM:

    http://i.imgur.com/8pzwsA1.png

    1. That would be a pretty serious thumping and as Mark indicated would
      BLOW AWAY the all time season Snow Record for Boston and probably
      Worcester as well.

    2. However, this Looks to be a Southern Stream Storm phasing with
      Northern Stream energy, so Perhaps the Euro DOES have a handle on it??

      We shall see.

  21. NWS re: Weekend Getting more and more interesting

    THE FACT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
    FLOWS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WSW WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH PUSH NORTH AS IT WOULD WITH MORE OF A SW OR S FLOW. THUS…THINK AT THIS TIME THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BEING MET FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND A LOW BUT NON NEGLIGIBLE RISK OF MEETING WINTER STORM WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MA. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT .75 TO 1.00 INCHES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IN MANY AREAS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL LESSEN TO LIGHT
    RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

    SUNDAY NIGHT…NORMALLY PRECIPITATION ENDS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR COLD FRONT BUT MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG HINT OF ANOTHER WAVE…ALBEIT WEAK…ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT PLAYING THIS UP TOO MUCH RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE AND UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY NOT PASS BY THE AREA UNTIL THE COLD AIR HAS HAD A CHANCE TO FILTER BACK IN. THUS…THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

    It NEVER ENDS!

    And EVEN if it does turn to rain, it will be after a reasonable amount of fresh snow
    falls to absorb the rain. AND it looks as though IF it rains precip may be lighter.
    That’s a good thing. AND as is hinted by Euro and stated by TK, there is some
    possibility it doesn’t rain at all.

    We shall see.

    And another wave?

    And ALL this Prior to Wednesday?

    Massachusetts may be declared a Federal Disaster area when all is said and done.

    This is potentially HORRIFIC!

    1. I guess I’ll stick my neck out early and say probably a 3-6 deal from 495 east and 5-10 west. South and East of the Pike less. Don’t think that’s out of line even this early.

  22. You know too O.S., I figure we’ve gotten hammered with fluff factor and March is going to even the score whacking us with the heavy stuff.

    I could see this winter just very slowly petering itself out rather than a flip to spring as first thought. That might be better for the melt.

    Snow cover for most well into April IMO.

    1. Shutter the thought. Can you Imagine several Low Ratio BIG snow events
      around here on top of all of this? Unfathomable!!

      BUT, I can see exactly the scenario you describe. Say it ain’t so!

  23. I am so rooting for less rain with the weekend storm. I cleared out the storm drain at my mom’s yesterday so in the event this does turn to rain the water will be able to flow into it.

  24. Best-case scenario with weekend event (other than a complete miss) is a lighter event with minimal mix/rain. Holding with the thought of the “refrigerant” having a significant impact on the outcome.

    Heard a radio forecast early this morning calling for 45-50 with rain for the entire Boston area on Sunday. Not going with that.

    Good day all!

    2. TK,

      I don’t think it has been mentioned, BUT in addition to our huge snow pack,
      what effect would the new snow pack well to the South of us have? I mean
      there is close to a foot on the ground way down in Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, And West Virginia. It would have to have some effect, even if minimal. 😀

  25. Thanks, TK.

    I am glad your father is feeling better.

    I can’t see rain falling around here Sun. So much snow – cools the air. Anything that falls would likely freeze as it falls. But I guess it has rained in situations like this – it’s just so hard to believe the way this winter has been going.

  27. Still having problems seeing this as a rain event. I have changed my equation.

    (track wobble + weak low that can’t fight the artic air + ground cooling + a night time start) = rain?

    Of course I still don’t know which one I want … snow, mix or rain.

  28. Measured 2.o inches on the level this morning. Wonder what the ratio was?
    I’ll bet 30:1 or higher as it was fluff.

    Wonder what Logan’s official measurement was? With that DINGBAT observer over there, they’ll probably come in with 0.5 inches or some facuckta number like that. 😆

    For a moment, let’s assume Logan came in with 2 inches. That would put them
    pretty darn close to 99 inches on the season. Another inch or so and we have
    our second ALL TIME 100+ inch snow season. Pretty amazing for a coastal location!

    1. Looks like Logan came in with 1.6

      …suffolk county…
      1 N east boston 1.6 700 AM 2/19 logan airport
      winthrop 1.6 700 AM 2/19 none

  30. Still out in the Berkshires and woke up to a couple inches and still snowing. Ski conditions are amazing though no skiing for me 🙂 just the kids.

  32. UGH to freezing rain. As we saw here in CT back in January only a tenth of an inch of ice and major problems on parts of I-95 I -84. Now the ground this time around is colder than back then so it won’t take much freezing rain to really things slippery.

  33. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago
    The next potential one up is Wednesday, which may be the storm that breaks the all-time snowiest season rec. 6 days out so still uncertain.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 7m7 minutes ago
    Models continue to trend colder with our weekend storm. Still thinking predominantly a snow/freezing rain system for us.

  35. 12Z Came in COLDER than previous runs for the weekend.

    Snow totals NOT impressive, but there won’t be a whole lot of rain with
    this solution, if ANY at all. Perhaps a touch of sleet South of the Pike and a bit
    of rain closer to the South Coast. This run pretty much MIRRORS TK’s
    forecast!!

    Here is the snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    This is as FAR NORTH as the 850MB 0C line goes

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=066

    NOW I ask one and all, IF TK & JMA KNEW this would end up a colder
    SOLUTION, WHY OH WHY OH WHY did the esteemed HARVEY JUMP
    ALL OVER THE RAIN band wagon? I don’t get it at all.

    TK NICE JOB!!!!

  36. Hopefully the colder trend will continue. Rainorma would not be good with all that snow out there. Hopefully and this probably won’t happen is will have a gradual melt down of the snow pack.

        1. Oopsie. 😆 😆
          As I was about to post, I look out my window and see
          a snow flake or two drift by.

          Here is the radar:

          http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml

          This crap just blew up out of no where. Amazing.
          The atmosphere JUST WANTS TO KEEP SNOWING ON US. Sometimes a crap load and sometimes nuisance amounts, but it keeps doing it!

          This I believe will make 20 out the last 25 days it has snowed OR is it 21 out of 25 or 26? Either way,
          INCREDIBLE!!!

  39. Was trying to post a link to Matt Noyes website about a post he just made with his take on this weekend’s storm, but WordPress doesn’t like it for some reason. Article is there if you visit the website. He has a snowmap up. Thinks 5-6″ of snow as far south as northern CT before any changeover to mix.

    1. Try this link:

      bit.ly/1FyjCSf

      IS this the same one? because I don’t agree with this link at all.
      Not at ALL

        1. If I read these graphics correctly, he is calling for
          0-1 inch for Boston. WAAAAAAAAAAAY WRONG!
          in my opinion. Boston at the very least sees
          2-3 inches and “could” see more than that.

          Matt is usually EXCELLENT. He is OFF his game
          this morning.

  40. 12Z GFS Snow Map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

    Farthest North 850mb 0C line goes and there is WIGGLE room here for it
    to trend COLDER still

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=072

    At this point looks to be RAIN.

    Overal scenario, front end snow => Sleet => Rain => sleet => snow

    Bigger amounts North and West, lower East and South.

    Time for this to change more.

    So we have the NAM with the coldest solution along with the 0Z Euro.

    Let’s see what the other 12Z Guidance shows.

    At the very least, it looks like we avoid a total rainorama adding significantly
    to roof loads.

    Combining this with NAM and factoring in Euro, I’d say it looks like
    a general 3-6 inch snow event with a mix/change for awhile in Eastern/Southern areas. Higher totals North and West, Lower South and East.

    We shall see.

  41. Sun was out about 2 hrs. ago in Sudbury. Then it clouded up and we have been having occasional light flurries. Regarding my earlier post – I do recall seeing it rain w/temps. in the 20’s at some point and definitely snowing w/temps. in the 40’s, so rain isn’t that impossible for some areas on Sun., I guess. Just can’t get the picture of it raining at this point w/temps. getting bitterly cold again and all this snow.

    1. Looking at the charts, there is a chance of NO RAIN at all.
      And there is a chance of Sleet and Freezing rain/Rainfor awhile depending
      on location. We’ll just have to see, however, everything has been
      trending COLDER. Trend is your Friend. Very good change NO RAIN.

      Time will tell. We need to keep watching.

    1. Cold front sweeping through. It snows every day in Boston. Marty Walsh has proposed renaming our city Novosiboston.

  44. HARVEY still barking about RAIN.

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 18m18 minutes ago
    Also somewhat uncertain, but very important: how much rain falls Sunday…still evaluating #wcvb

  45. What up with this???????????????

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 3m3 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
    we should sit back, take a breath on New England Sunday F’cast, we (Wx Guidance) have a poor handle on situ. something holding back for Mon?

  46. Funny watching the radar…so many places not getting snow but it’s all headed to Woburn like clockwork.

    1. TK I might be wrong but does it seem like Woburn is a snow magnet??? It’s coming down FAST in Lexington.

        1. Surprised the rate of snowfall to be honest. Very moderate here and no sign of letting up. I spent an hour shoveling and cleaning today too before I left…it was sunny and felt warm… like spring! Now it’s dark and snowing again.

          1. Same here in Quincy. Shovelled the front walkway in time for the mailman (it’s the least I can do). Also carved out some snow banks to make room for a ladder to clear snow off the garage roof. I hope this ends soon. The blue sky was much nicer.

    2. I have to laugh the way you always say WE.
      Was it not your forecast and yours alone?
      Who is this WE? Who’s your partner? 😀 😀

  48. Hey, not for nothing, but the GFS has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for Wednesday??????

    Run is currently STUCK. It looks like something may be brewing within a day or 2 of Wednesday???? I dunno

    1. Noticed that…it has totally lost the storm. Well, it is still there but a few hundred miles away from Bermuda 🙂

  52. New total Logan snowfall to date = 97.9″ (dependent on midday snowshower, maybe 0.1″-0.2″ additional??)

    We will see later this afternoon/early evening.

  55. If the colder scenario verifies for Sunday, it will be interesting if the MBTA can keep its promise of full train service come Monday morning. With 0.75-1.00 QPF that would mean close to yet another foot of snow/ice.

  56. If this wasn’t the Euro, I might be getting concerned although the general coastal storm idea does have support from the 12z Canadian and previous runs of the GFS.

    1. Look at these word of HYPE. Pretty Scary IF one didn’t know better.

      Ryan ‏@RyanMaue 13m13 minutes ago
      ECMWF 12z didn’t lose next week’s explosively-developing “bomb” blizzard over New England. Potential to be worst of winter …

    1. Something is wrong OR I don’t have access to temperatures at OTHER levels.
      850MB temps look to mostly support snow. Is there another level you
      can see on your Euro charts?

      Tx

      2. Just double checked Wundermap. Mostly between -2 and -4 C
        the warmest it get for several hours is 0 to -2 C.

        I also checked for temperatures at other levels and not available.

        So what’s up? There should be MORE than 2 inches
        of snow for Boston. I wonder if there is considerable sleet due
        to a warm layer at 700MB that I can’t see.

        Any clues at all?

      3. some of the lower levels, its a shallow area of warm air, some of which will likely be cooler due to currently snow pack

  60. Surface temperatures on the Euro would not support all snow. Freezing line retreats to near Canada by Sunday afternoon. This is looking very messy. A couple inches of front end snow, possibly a prolonged period of sleet or freezing rain, especially interior, and likely an inevitable changeover to at least some plain rain.

  61. I got a chance to check 700mb temps on the Euro and they are more than supportive of all snow. It is only from about 900mb to the surface where things are too warm, for the latter part of the storm at least. If TK is right, the snow on the ground and the cold already in place may allow those temperatures to stay cooler than what the models show, which would lead to more wintry precip.

    1. I guess these aren’t stopping soon like I thought. Snowing pretty hard here and radar shows more coming. It’s like a joke at this point.

        1. Lexington right now…but snow looks over Woburn too. Yes, dark, cloudy, and snow is coming down decently. Looks like more hitting this area too!

              1. Well, how do you like that? There is a special weather statement that there is a line of dangerous squalls from near Pelham to near Lexington to near Milton. Well, it’s not near Milton; it’s in Milton. Although, this doesn’t look dangerous to me. Aggravating, yes.

    2. Again, this snow comes through and our area is always the bulleye. North, south, and west…no snow…it’s really unreal.

  67. FWIW, the 12z Euro Ensemble mean very close to the operational for both the weekend and Wednesday storm threats.

  68. It was definitely intense. We had a solid coating in a matter of 15 minutes. Ice blue sky now with some of the coolest clouds I’ve seen moving in. They almost look like snow mounds in the sky.

  71. Yes, snow has lightened up here as well. But it’s still snowing a little and it’s very cloudy. Maybe I’ll get the pretty blue skies soon.

  75. Wife is telling me she is hearing an intense squall coming through our area in the next 30 minutes but radar looks empty now that the current snow is passing. Am I missing something?

  77. I love the ECMWF. From now on I pledge allegiance to the ECMWF and I will only forecast based on the ECMWF. Of course this only after I use my credentials and credibility to be the first to tweet out its snow map at 168 hours. I mean how can you not be a slave to its brilliance? After all it was the first to nail an inch of rain to the Canadian border for this weekend….

      1. Hmmm

        ACCUMULATION
        Widespread 3-to-6 inches accumulations are expected from Boston to Worcester and points north, with potential for slightly higher amounts in spots. We are not expecting anyone to reach a foot this time.

        Did we see this before? 😀

        1. I think even today overperformed a bit…I would love 3-6 but somehow I see myself moving 18 inches haha.

        2. This one is a different animal O.S. sorry to say. Otherwise I’d be all in with you. Surprises will be in one of two forms IMO:

          Hills

          or

          Suppressed and lighter.

          1. Huh? I know it’s a different animal.
            3-6 inches is still Eric’s forecast, and I for one,
            think that’s pretty reasonable. 😀

    1. Probably not. Maybe right on the immediate shore up to Boston but nowhere inland and certainly not in the suburbs to the north and west.

  80. Eric is the only met with frozen precip throughout Sunday for Boston (snow to ice) with only extreme SE MA/Cape with a complete changeover to rain…interesting.

  81. Crew just left here. For the 2nd time have had the roof cleared. In addition they
    attacked as many ICE DAMS as possible. From what I can see from Windows, they
    did an OUTSTANDING JOB. Hopefully the investment will save tons of money
    down the road. Both visits together probably under $1,000. Not bad considering.

      1. No it’s for A Large roof. The roof over the back on my house
        is as big as many people’s whole house. My house is huge.

        Today they did that roof, A porch roof and were up on the slanted
        part of the roof removing the snow above ice dams and attacking ice dams.

        I think I got an outstanding price.

  82. Likely weather related as usual on the T, but there are reports of HUGE crowds on the North Station platform.

  83. So annoying. Pete keeps showing a model that basically has the rain going up through New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont, but then says to not pay attention to it because it is wrong. He then goes on to say that he thinks the Mass. Pike will be the rain/snow line. Why does he keep showing a model he thinks is wrong?

    1. I’ve never understood that. Make a graphic that represents your forecast. They can animate that.

  84. I suspect that Boston sees 100″ by midnight Sunday and easily smash the record 107.6″ on Wednesday assuming that storm is a hit.

    From what I understand the Wednesday storm is a hit or a complete miss…nothing in-between.

    1. Interesting. In addition to show the inaccurate model for Sunday, Pete also said he does not think Boston hits the snow record this year.

    1. I met to post this this morning. That day the sky was green in western ma and reminded me of being a 6 year old in Iowa just before we moved to MA.

  87. New blog in 9PM hour will feature the following…
    -Frigid Friday, high around 15, wind chill below 0.
    -Light to moderate snow especially away from South Coast Saturday night.
    -Sleet/freezing rain but not that heavy most areas, plain rain confined to South Coast Sunday morning.
    -Most areas stay below freezing Sunday except immediate coast from Boston southward.
    -Flash freeze of anything liquid Sunday night.
    -Monster storm in ocean midweek? Should be far enough east to not have a huge impact but have to watch it.

  88. Does anyone remember the date of the last snowfall from 1996? How about any other details from that season? I remember the early January storm. I remember very cold snowstorms and snow seemingly every 36 hours at one point, right before Christmas, 1995, I think.

    Assuming we break the record in the next week, I wonder when we will see the last snowflake and what the final total will be.

  89. What time is the snow going to start in Boston on Saturday does anybody know that yet, thank you . Was supervising a crew today digging out roof drains preparing for the weekend storm whatever we get.

  90. I will never forget that day June 1, 2011 and watching that tornado come across the CT River. That tornado on the ground for 39 miles. That was the first tornado I remember seeing on live television in New England.

  91. I should clarify my post from earlier. I saw a very respected Met send out the ECMWF snow map for next Wednesday with no disclaimer. It was done for no other purpose than to drive people to a website and an upcoming broadcast. I was beyond dismayed.

    Earlier in the day I had a very unprofessional communication with a rep from the ECM as we were trying to to get some pricing concessions in order to include the option of ECMWF data in an educational package. The arrogance of the our product is a premium price because of unrivaled performance superiorty permeated the entire conversation and was as troubling as it was misguided. So yes I am not an ECMWF kind of mood…

    FYI I agree with all of TKs thoughts on the upcoming forecast period.

    1. AGAIN*(!@#*(&!@*&#*!&@#*&!@*#&!*@&#*&!@*&*#&*!#@

      Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 5m5 minutes ago
      What happened after all of the Top 5 coldest February’s on record? A colder than average March. Great.

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