The Week Ahead

224 Comments

8:20PM

COMMENTARY…
Not too often a day in the upper 30s to lower 40s following snow and rain would be considered a “really nice day” but many probably thought that of Sunday, the first day that Boston was above freezing most of the day in a very long while. The day allowed for being outside without being bundled in layers. The shoveling of snow was more of the clean up and catch up variety versus just trying to stay ahead of a storm during near-blizzard conditions. Granted, there are many people with ice dam problems but at least today afforded the opportunity for some people to work on clearing those, or at least lessening their impact. We have quite a way to go still to finish recovering from the 4-week barrage that we’ve been enduring, but Sunday, though maybe not a “day of rest”, was a nice break.

SUMMARY…
The mild air’s brief visit will end in the early hours of Monday as an Arctic cold front sweeps through the region from west to east. Though the front may be accompanied by a few isolated snow showers, the main impact will be tumbling temperatures during Monday and Monday night. The deep freeze will last through Tuesday as well. A clipper low pressure system will dive southeastward out of Canada, across the Great Lakes, and then move eastward through New England by early Wednesday. Developing low pressure offshore should stay just too far east to impact the region, other than perhaps clipping Cape Cod with some snow/mix. Elsewhere, just a few snow showers are expected early Wednesday. This will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold for the last 3 days of February, though the magnitude of the cold will not be as great as what will be experienced early this week. A look ahead to the first day of March next Sunday shows clouds rolling in and moderating temperatures ahead of the next weather system. The pattern remains active but will be a little less volatile.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 20-25 morning then falling through 10s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0 at times during the afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 inland valleys, -10 to -5 other inland areas, -5 to 0 coastal locations and urban centers except 0-5 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, but not as strong in valley locations. Wind chill often well below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy AM with a chance of snow showers all areas and possibly a period of steady snow/mix Cape Cod. Partly cloudy PM. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

224 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  5. And the 00z NAM moves just a little further west again.

    Snow accumulations starting to show up on Cape Cod and to a lesser extent, eastern Mass.

    Each successive run seems 25-30 miles or so further west.

    This is for the mid week system.

  6. Anyone know what gloaming time is? I’ve decided it is one of my two favorite times of day but never heard the term before.

    1. Gloaming= dusk and as the last twilight fades.

      I would play all my golf at dawn and in the gloaming if I could.

      This thought sends me to bed happy. Thanks.

      1. MassBay. You made me smile. I love the times of day when night and day pass each other. I never knew the morning term though

            2. I guess your question is whether there is a term for the stretch of time from dawn to sunrise. I do not know. I think we use dawn to apply to both the beginning of that time and the entire duration.
              Off to bed for me. I have to rise at dawn.

              1. I can’t find anything similar to gloaming for morning. I also like eventide for dusk/twilight!

                I am seeing this discussion as somehow weather related….a bit of a stretch perhaps 🙂

  7. so Band banquet, friday night great start to a great weekend
    then Basketball game. Only did one thinking i would get up to vermont before the snow really started…..LOL fat chance, it was like a freakin blizzard by the time we hit route 2 and started up to new hampshire could barely see ahead of us, snow covered roads and rolling hills not a good combo…. got to our hotel about 5 hours which should have taken us about 3 hours. 5 inches of new snow up there. hit the mountain right as it opened and they did not groom most of the trails so my brothers, dad and myself were up to our knees and ankles of fresh powder, but the crowds got so large and it quickly became what skiers like to call crud which is powder with huge clumps in it which is very hard to ski in. Hit some of the glades in the afternoon when the crowds were really bad, i was up to my knees and even waist at times lol. Over all a great ski day.. Just wish not so many people went, They said it was the busiest they have seen it in over a month, saying it was due to the warmer temperatures today

        2. Fav trail at Stratton is Upper and Lower Kiderbrook. It’s a shame they don’t have a chair for that trail now though

  8. This past storm while wasn’t a big deal in terms of snow accumulations will go down as the storm that changed the snowpack consistency for the rest of the winter and almost guarantee snow on the ground through most if not all of March. This snow just got a lot more dense and that much harder to melt.

    1. Agreed. Now the snow has consistency of cement. It will take more energy
      to melt it, but melt it will. 😀

  10. 6Z NAM, awfully close

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    6Z Snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    0Z Snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066

    0Z close pass

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022300&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=060

    Not much change from 0Z to 6Z. Perhaps 6Z ever so slightly East from 0Z

  11. Too close for comfort Wednesday AM.
    Sure looks like there will be “some” Snow in the air for
    Eastern Sections, possibly an inch or 2 with more towards the Cape.

    Wonder IF 12Z runs back off on this?

    Euro only clips the cape.

      1. Sure could be John. It’s just to close to ignore. Wouldn’t take much
        to get it up here. Hopefully it stays totally OFF SHORE.
        But it is OH SO CLOSE.

        NWS said it would be starved for moisture. I’m Wondering
        if we don’t get some “ocean Effect”??????

  13. Brrr for tomorrow AM. From NWS:

    TEMPERATURES DURING THE MORNING WILL RANGE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW-ZERO…LIKELY A FEW LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW -20.

    .CLIMATE…
    WITH HEART OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT…
    TEMPERATURES MAY DROP CLOSE TO OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS AT OUR FIVE
    LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES.

    HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24…

    BOSTON -7 IN 1894
    PROVIDENCE -3 IN 1907
    WORCESTER -11 IN 1894
    WINDSOR LOCKS -4 IN 1907
    BLUE HILL/MILTON -11 IN 1894

  14. Was called in early this morning and was surprised with the tempature outside but boy is it dropping now !!!!!!

      1. Much better. The pain was horrible for over 2.5 hours yesterday. Of course it begin to subside when I got to the ER.

        1. Did it pass? I have a fear of those things… I heard they can break the stones down via some sonic waves or something.

          1. North so happy that your stone departed. However, I cannot imagine driving even 30 minutes during an attack, let alone 2.5 hours on the last leg of a very long journey.

            WeatherWiz, it is lithotripsy. (sp?) It isn’t a bad procedure but you tend to pass little stones for a few days or even weeks after.

        2. Good luck with that! My husband did end up in the emergency room when his 1st stone was diagnosed, 4 more since then! He almost passed out from the pain!
          He’s had 2 Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) procedures, with great results. I hope the same for you!

    2. Didn’t know you had a kidney stone. Hope you are feeling better. My husband has had trouble with kidney stones through the years. He knows the pain.

      1. Had one yesterday on the way back from Florida in the car. It started with a half hour left in the ride thankfully! It is much better now. How are Marc and you doing?

        2. We’re doing so-so, thanks for asking. I have been having neuropathic pains for about 4 mos. now and have been to doctors and neurologists and they say I am ok. No need for tests. They say my nerves are misfiring. I think I injured myself back in the fall but they say that isn’t it. Only had an x-ray; they never gave MRI. I still have pain but no numbness or anything. Very frustrating. Dr. gave me some medicine – wary on taking them due to side-effects. Maybe will take them at some point. Marc ok – no pain – still waiting to get teeth extracted. Don’t ask! Crazy situation.

  17. Good morning from rainman, more rain is coming early next week 🙂

    Off to spring meetings until 1pm, this week we r expecting 7-8 tons of organic fertilizer today along with many other products. Everything should be ready to go for when we get back from Jamaica this weekend. Believe it or not the phone has started to ring, just 2 calls but still a sign of next month 🙂 wondering when we are planning to come out next month. Enjoy your day everyone and be safe!! 🙂

        1. K Mart SUCKS for everything. I despise that store
          almost as much as WALMART!!

          For Most home needs I prefer LOWES even over
          Home Depot. 😀

      1. Good thing I just got a new battery for the car! Roadside Assistance and AAA will be out straight tomorrow morning!

  19. Although we get a break in the action this week, keep shoveling off those roofs. There are some signs that a warmer storm could affect us late in the weekend and early next week.

  20. I spy a 40 degree temperature in the week ahead on Sunday!

    He’s cut, he’s cut, the Russian is cut!

    Rocky IV – Spring is Balboa, Winter is Drago

  21. 12Z NAM has “back off” a bit for Wednesday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=045&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    OH so AWFULLY CLOSE!!!!

    1. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 7m7 minutes ago
      Chance the coast, esp. Cape Cod gets nicked with a bit of snow between 11pm Tue Nt & 5am Wed #WCVB

    1. Look at the evolution of this from the 12Z GFS

      hour 39

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=039

      42

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=042

      45

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=045

      48

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=048

      I Say, IS it time to start worrying????????

  26. While the snow blitz has been exciting, unprecedented, and record-breaking, our region continues to be impacted negatively with fatalities. The most recent ones have occurred in Canton, Fitchburg, and Gloucester. These hardly get reported because there’s no snowstorm happening right now. But, they’re tragic nonetheless. Crossing streets remains hazardous. Roof collapses are a real possibility (implies people have to clear roofs, which in turn can lead to terrible accidents).

  27. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 5m5 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
    Boston snowfall passes 100″ Wednesday Morning, maybe even 102″.
    as the 64″ snowpack in Machias Maine closes in on 70″

    1. This ends up giving us some rain, BUT it looks eerily similar to what
      we just experienced this past Saturday. Perhaps the experts can chime in
      on this. I suspect that this transitions to LESS Rain. We shall see.

  31. February 25 Boston gets to 100 inches.
    March 8 they break the record.
    Then it’s over I think.

    Warm up may be delayed but should start to dry out.

  33. Matt, I saw your post above – looks like we had the same idea this weekend. Drove up to VT Saturday and was caught in absolute blizzard at Mt Snow on Sat PM – it was just pounding snow. Sunday I was at Stratton as well and it was amazing. 8″ of fresh powder, sunny with 50+ mile visibility, and lots of fresh powder on the trails. The glades were the place to be – lots of fresh snow and less people. We spent a lot of time on the Shooting Star lift and there was no lift line at all. Ace, we did Kidderbrook – great trail and some nice tree skiing along the right side of it.

    I came home to 8″ of new snow in Coventry CT (only 2″ of which melted during the day). Unlike the Boston area, the storm definitely overperformed in CT. There was a widespread 6-8″ in the Hartford area. Got home from VT at 9PM and was out clearing snow at midnight last night. Ugh. But it was all worth it!

    1. Great link, Mark. As bad as we think things are, I guess sometimes we have to take a step back and put everything into perspective.

  35. OS: Colorado lows are generally not good. But, I don’t think this one early next week will take a particularly rainy track for us. Mix, yes. Not much snow, either. But, not a big rain producer.

    1. That’s why I used the word “Typically”. I agree with something Mark posted.
      It looks like that situation “may” end up something akin to the event we
      just had Saturday, give or take some.

  36. TK – Does Boston break the snowfall record by several inches or just barely? We would need a moderate snowfall of 7.7″ or at least a couple of light ones on the high end just for a tie.

    1. If I had my druthers, I would rather we SMASH the damn thing IF
      we are going to break in the first place. We’ve endured this much, Why NOT?

  37. As TK was saying, very active pattern to start March. 12z GFS is showing four events in the beginning of March:

    – SWFE (SW flow event) Monday 3/2 with snow to mix/rain to snow (very similar to the last storm)
    – Snowstorm on Wednesday 3/4
    -Grazer/near miss with a snow event on Friday 3/6
    -Snow event on Monday 3/8

    Then the pattern appears to break and we dry out and warm up after 3/9. Though that is very long range and we have seen this continually advertised by the GFS at the end of its cycle, only to keep pushing the pattern change back.

    There is still no question in my mind whatsoever that Boston breaks the snow record.

  38. Hey Old Salty,

    I just read your RANT from yesterday regarding paper vs. plastic and might I suggest you shop in Brookline where all their stores use PAPER only. No plastic bags available even if you insist on it. The town last year passed a law banning all plastic bags in stores…and restaurants as well (even “doggie bags” must be paper). 😀

    1. Love it. Brookline is too congested. No place to park. Not the stores we desire.
      So that doesn’t work. It’s a great idea and thank you.

    2. I let loose, didn’t I. Sorry I did that. I need to refrain from doing so and I
      SHALL Make a gallant effort. 😀

      1. Are you kidding ???? Makes me feel good to hear someone else is frustrated with grocery shopping….and service in general. I loved it 🙂

        1. You’re just too kind Vicki.

          I don’t do well in crowded stores to begin with.
          Just too much stimulation. My senses are on overload
          and then I get total twits that don’t know the difference
          between plastic and paper. Well you know what I mean.

          Btw the “little” over on my 1/2 pound of roast beef
          turned out to be exactly 0.6 pound. 1/10th pound over
          or 20% MORE than what was asked. When they do that to EVERYONE, it adds up to considerably MORE
          sales! It is an UNFAIR practice and I SWEAR they
          are INSTRUCTED TO DO SO! Things like this drive me nuts.

          I have to stop, else I will be doing the
          “Blabber Mouth” bit from the HONEYMOONERS! 😀

  39. Monthly snowfall to date = 62.7″

    Unless something happens on Wednesday, that will be the in the books as the most ever for an entire month @ Logan…WOW!! to say the least.

  40. PHEW… What a Month. I was really excited to contribute a bit to WHW but the snow removal has been relentless.
    I feel this last storm could have been a lot worse. Kinda felt like the best case scenario as far as not too much snow, not too much ice and not too much straight rain. Speaking from the location I work in of course.
    Some interesting #s from the snow and ice management of the property we take care of in Roslindale:
    – Jan 24th-Feb 23rd more than 4,500 hours worked moving snow and treating ice.
    – Only two days in that period that no work was performed (2/1 thankfully was one of them… all crews were able to enjoy the best interception in NE history from their homes)
    – We filled an entire baseball field with snow from the roadways and parking areas. We had to bring in a bulldozer and large excavator to make more room. There is now a 30′ mountain snow that stretches from home plate down to first base through right field to deep center field.
    – More than 15 pallets of ice melt have been spread.

    Very thankful for the hard working crews and this current lapse in accumulating snow.

    A month to remember for sure…

    Thanks again for all the guidance and information!

        1. Oh Thanks. I was just trying to locate it in my mind.
          I still can’t. I know the public fields in Roslindale, Hyde Park and W. Roxbury, but am having trouble locating
          what you describe. It’s a map/location thing built into
          my personality. Since you mention it, I HAVE to know
          where it is. I reside in the area as you know.

    2. Interesting info BB (hmmmmm initials of a few greats in this area 🙂 )

      I understand they are also using Larz Anderson area to dump snow.

  41. I am confused. Can anyone decipher this tweet from Tim Kelley?????

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 20m20 minutes ago Connecticut, USA
    all Guidance (far as I can tell) now agree Weds Snow C.Cod, 3″ to E ME, 6″ & Coming around on Fri too. Big Q is -> Snow? or Rain? Sun night

    I presume he means Eastern MA 3 inches, Cape Cod 6 inches. Only thing that
    makes any sense. He need to take a remedial English Grammar course.

      1. Actually I read it as 3 inches Cape Cod to 6 inches Eastern Maine with a big question of rain or snow Sunday night. I don’t like tweets – way too much shorthand that it seems is made up on the fly

        1. Of course that’s what it is. MY BAD!!

          I looked at that and honestly I Saw Easter MA.
          I guess you know where my mind is!!!!

          Thanks for setting me straight.

          1. Is Tim Kelley hnting at a Friday event as well? I don’t recall ever hearing anything about Friday other than dry & cold.

          2. OS – the day when I set you straight with regard to weather is the day the earth turns on its head 🙂 But thank you.

            1. Well then the earth turns on it’s head today! Because you did, indeed, set my
              straight. I saw MA when it was clearly ME!
              😀

  42. Most guidance now delivers a light accumulating snow to eastern MA on Wed. The second developing coastal Friday looks too far out to sea at this point.

  43. HERE WE GO AGAIN!!!!!!

    18Z NAM MORE bullish for Wednesday. Have a look

    39 hours or 9Z Wed

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=039

    42 hours or 12Z Wed. (NICE COMMUTE!!!)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=042

    45 Hours or 15Z Wed.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=045

    Snow Map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    Once again, Boston is in the middle of the jackpot area, as small as that may be.
    Even so, it’s Another 3 inches of snow. Each run is closer with MORE SNOW!!!

    How much will it end up?

    1. OS, the UKMET and RGM are similar. Looking like a quick hit of snow Wednesday for most of eastern NE. We may even get some accumulation into Worcester Co. and eastern CT with this one.

            1. BZ has same – no idea what 5 has. Their website irritates me although I seem to think it may have improved.

    2. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 10m10 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
      somehow Scituate will get the more RT @capecodweather NAM ticking in even a bit “juicier” for Wed AM. Another plowable (> 3″) snow event

    1. I think this was made prior to his viewing the NAM.

      I wonder what the 18Z GFS will show.

      Getting mighty interesting, especially for a situation where NOTHING
      was supposed to happen. I LOVE these the best of all!

  45. Want to know why even more snow has fallen from New Brunswick to Prince Edward Island than Boston? Remember those clipper systems that redeveloped into bombs but too far off the coast to impact us much? Well, they impacted New Brunswick and most of the Maritime provinces. And, the storms that hit us also impacted the Maritime provinces. They’ve literally been getting whacked every 3 days with loads of snow. The next two systems – Wednesday and Friday – look to do the same: May impact us a little, but will likely impact our Canadian friends a lot.

    1. Agreed. They have had it rough for sure. But they’re more rugged than we are.
      Imagine living up there in the SPRING. I couldn’t do it. I’d be in a mental hospital. Damn close to it as it is. 😀

    2. Joshua, it was that blizzard last week that really did them in. PEI (where many of those pics were from) received 30″ of snow from that storm along with hurricane force winds and drifts up to 10 feet. That was on top of the 30″+ base they already had on the ground. Scary to actually be buried alive in your home like that!

      1. Perfect in that’s what you would like or perfect as in
        that’s what you actually think will happen? Big Difference. 😀

    2. Note: They DID say fluffy snow. Hmm

      NAM qpf

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

      That’s about .25 inch for Boston. What would you say the ratio is
      for “fluffy” Snow? I’d say 15:1. For the sake of discussion, let’s go with that.

      15:1 for .25 inch translates to .25*15 oe 3.75 inches of SNOW!!!

      I guess NWS is THROWING out the NAM??????????

      OR knowing them, they did it before the NAM came out.

      Even IF we use the GFS

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

      That’s a little less. Call it .20 inch

      .2*15= 3 Inches.

      Where the BLEEP in all HELL do they get 0-1 inch?

      Oh Wait a minute, they must be factoring in the 12Z Euro??????????

      I DON’T GET IT AT ALL!

  47. Hey
    everybody. does anybody Know a good website That provides evironmental news source about global warming or climate change or such. Its for a school project, I have a few but any suggestions would be appreciated. Thanks

  48. Cool sea-breezes, fog, and raw weather affect the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coast until June. Yes, those people are rugged and tough. Nothing fazes them.

  49. OS, I think they go with the ensembles. Wait until the next GFS comes out. They may change their tune then.

    A couple of inches of fluff will not add much to the snow burden, but will impact the commute on Wednesday.

    1. Agree with the commute. Wednesday AM could be a nightmare.
      We shall see.

      I’m guessing 18Z GFS is on board as well. I am actually waiting for the
      rest of the 18Z RGEM to complete.

  50. I don’t see much of any change with the 18Z GFS.
    18Z RGEM holds course. Waiting for another frame or 2.

    1. That’s 2 inches for Boston at 10:1. IF the NWS Fluff is true and we assume
      15:1, then that’s 3 inches.

    3. SREF snow tool has been complete garbage. Had me getting 6″ from the Tuesday storm that passed to our south last week and we ended up with under an inch (like all other guidance predicted!)

  54. Last thought before I leave. NWS indicating snow ratios of between 12:1 and 15:1, so
    using a 15:1 ratio in discussions above may have been a bit bullish. But to me,
    12:1 is not FLUFFY snow. It may be powdery and less dense than some, but full-fledged fluff? No. Need at least 15:1 to call it fluff in my opinion, whatever that
    is worth. 😀

    In that case .25 inch qpf would be .25*12 or 3 inches.

  55. That Friday deal is a close shave too. Next week looks to be real interesting.

    My flight to Ft. Worth today cancelled from that sleet/fr. rain. Try again tomorrow.

  56. Had it with this winter. Worked hard on Sunday to break up an ice dam and stop a leak into our living room. It appears I was successful. Unfortunately, Sunday night, as I got up from a chair I experienced severe pains in my lower back and almost fell to the floor. Ended up at the doctor today and then for x-Rays, but it appears to be a bad muscle pull. Got some meds, but still in pain — ugh.

    Then I noticed that the house seemed cool today. Turned up the heat and nothing happened. Went downstairs, and the oil tank is empty. For some reason, our oil company, which delivers on a schedule to us, did not deliver on time. Now we are freezing and are told that someone will be here by 10 tonight to put 10 gallons in the tank until they can get here tomorrow. Ridiculous. This is the second time this has happened and will be the last. Finding a new oil company tomorrow.

    I don’t have the time nor energy to think about the weather. 🙂

    2. Mel, with any luck the old folklore “things come in threes” holds true for you, with better times ahead!
      Feel better!

    4. Good grief. So sorry Mel. And the oil company should be completely responsible if you Are on auto delivery. But seriously. They are sending a truck. Fill it. They have to prime it anyway.

  57. GFS nailed the Sunday system in terms of snowfall for Boston south while the NAM was more bullish. I’m not wavering from the GFS until it wavers too.

  58. Mel, I am sorry to hear about your ordeal. Winter is tough in New England. Even average ones can be hard to handle in terms of everyday tasks. Take care.

  60. i believe this spring will be cool with normal precipitation. As series of high pressures move into the region from the northwest.

    1. Euro is snow to rain on Monday and GFS keeps it all snow, almost the exact same setup that just occurred this past weekend.

      Then both GFS and Euro with a decent sized snowstorm for next Wednesday. Far out I know, but a good looking setup.

      Next week will be interesting, active for sure.

  63. With what we have been thru the last 4+ weeks and March 1st only 6 days away ….. since 2010, here’s the furthest into March Logan went before hitting 50F. (I ignored the rest of February)

    2010: March 6th at 57F

    2011 : March 5th at 55F

    2012 : March 7th at 62F

    2013 : March 11th at 50F

    2014 : March 8th at 55F

    Data courtesy of climate section, Taunton NWS

      1. Sure was Vicki, that was a crazy March.

        +8.4F above avg.

        Around the date you gave, here was a set of consecutive high temps at Logan ….

        74F, 74F, 67F, 78F, 83F, 76F

        1. I have a scientific reference. My third grandbaby was born march 18. Her older sister stayed with us and we had her and her older cousin playing outside in water tables. It was tons of fun 🙂

    2. Shall we see when 60F first appeared 🙂 🙂 🙂

      March 2010 : March 17th at 65F

      March 2011 : March 6th at 61F

      March 2012 : March 7th at 62F

      March 2013 : Didnt happen. Hit 59F on March 31st. Hit 62F on April 1st

      March 2014 : March 11th at 60F

      Data again courtesy of climate section, Taunton NWS

      1. I do realize we have an excessive snow cover headed into this March, we’ve been so cold, the surrounding ocean is very cold with more ice in inlets, harbors than usual ….

        With all that said, the data of the past 5 years gives me some hope that we are 2-3 weeks away from a very mild day that might help restore some normalcy (ie less concern with ice dams, less travel concern with the high snow piles, somewhat less usage of energy to maintain house warmth, etc)

        We’re getting closer even though tonight is frigid.

  64. Down to 8 degrees here. It’s definitely gonna hit negative numbers but I’m curious if it gets to the 10’s of negative

  65. Mark, because GFS has been relatively accurate its depiction of the weather next week is worrisome. I normally don’t worry about snow and cold. I love it. But, if we replenish the snow-pack and then all of a sudden we go above 50F (Tom’s chart above suggests this happens in early March, even in cold months of March like 2013 and 2014) we’re going to have really bad flooding, roof collapses, etc … In my neighborhood the damage is already significant. A friend just called to say his apartment is uninhabitable as snow and ice punctured a hole in it. We’re hearing similar stories every day. Railings smashed to smithereens, parking meters completely leveled by snow-plows (many with the meter portion decapitated; I counted a dozen on my street – Beacon), broken basement windows, broken car windows, large pieces of rain drains/gutters lying on the sidewalk. In sum, lots of damage, with more to come.

  66. Boy the NAM is close for Wed. Good luck Charlie with starting in early March. Sorry for not being on the blog recently. Was away on vacation and busy with the kids. The Bershires were terrific. Best ski conditions I have seen in 20 years.

  70. 00 gfs showing 1-3 for tomorrow night into Wed. We will be over a 100 inches by then for sure and that much closer to all time record. Waiting to see the rest of the run for the next 10 days and see when we will break the record bc we will.

  72. Kevin L tweet, he also said on news that he believes the snows will increase as storm will be further north.

    @klemanowicz: Latest models snowier… latest numbers coming up at 11 @fox25news

      1. 6Z RGEM snowmap, assumes 10:1 ratio

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022406/rgem_asnow_neus_11.png

        That’s about 2 inches for Boston.
        at 12:1 would be 12*.2 or 2.4 inches
        at 15:1 would be 15*.2 or 3.0 inches

        Here is the 6Z NAM 4KM snow map, again assumes 10:1 ratio

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015022406/nam4km_asnow_neus_13.png

        This shows 3.5 inches for Boston

        at 12:1 12*.35 = 4.2 inches
        at 15:1 15*.35 = 5.25 inches

  76. With the type of event this is for late tonight/tomorrow AM I think I would tend
    to lean on the Mesoscale Models and NOT the global models. Perhaps I am dead wrong on this.

    IF we go with globals, then we’re looking at an inch or 2.
    Mesoscale, then its 3-5 inches.

    It Appears that the NWS is going pretty much with the mesoscale, but toning it back
    just a tad.

    Thoughts?

  78. Looking way ahead, something very interesting with the GFS

    Look at this big RAIN event

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=201

    Now look at the current Snow Depth

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022406&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=000

    Look at Snow Depth in 10 days, AFTER that Rain event Above

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022406&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=240

    In the Boston area, IF this verifies, it takes the snow pack from around 30 inches
    or so ALL the way down to about 4 or 5 inches. IS that even possible? That WOULD
    cause some serious flooding for sure.

    That is some Scary CRAP!!!

  79. From NWS

    THIS ALLOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SETUP FOR
    A SHORT TIME ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND…BRIEFLY PULLING DEEPER
    MOISTURE/LIFT NORTHWARD.

    MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SNOWGROWTH ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEARLY 20 MICROBARS PER SECOND OF LIFT WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION. IN ADDITION…THE NAM/RGEM ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME -EPV ACROSS EASTERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. LATEST RGEM/GFS/NAM ALL SHOWING BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.35 INCHES OF QPF. GIVEN FAIRLY ROBUST LIFT IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION…EXPECT RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15 OR 20 TO 1.

    15 to 20:1 WOW!

    qpf up to .35

    .35*15 = 5.25 inches
    .35*20 = 7.0 inches

    .15*15 = 2.25 inches
    .15*20 = 3.0 inches

    That’s a range of 3-7 inches.

    Sure will be interesting to have a look at the 12Z Runs.

  83. NAM qpf

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=area

    Nice look at NAM set up

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_027_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=027&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=105&scrolly=0

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_030_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+06+UTC&scrollx=105&scrolly=0

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+06+UTC&scrollx=105&scrolly=0

  84. Winter Weather Advisory tonight in eastern MA starts around 10 PM. Most snow probably from 1 AM to 5 AM. Lots of 1-3″ and 2-4″ forecasts from different sources. Looks like it will accumulate quickly.

  85. WHAT 2-4 in Boston tonight what happened to snow showers? I’m done with snow , I’m totally done I hate the snow now ugh!!!!! What time does it start. Snow showers , next it snows this weekend right lol.

  86. Damn you channel 7…you told me in many blogs no snow this week. Sure I knew Wednesday would likely screw us but I grabbed on to their statement.

  87. -10.3. Interesting night. Huge sonic boom type bangs from roof that shook house every hour or even more often. We figured it was ice cracking or contracting, but son in law was on roof at midnight checking. He said he could hear houses on either side of us doing the same.

      1. Thanks WW. We have had this happen in past, although not as frequent, so were pretty sure that is what it was. One roof (the rubber membrane that we do not want to climb on and tear) has snow still so it was a concern. Funny, though, how logical thought escapes one in the wee hours of the morning 🙂

  88. OS, the snow-pack can melt very rapidly, especially in March. And this is a major concern of mine. Rain, fog, 40s/50s next week would do the trick. But, it would lead to major flooding and issues throughout the region. What amazes me is the number of precipitation (mostly snow) events, starting January 24th. Just a barrage of precipitation, and that looks to continue next week.

    1. I’ve been contemplating with the idea of shoveling the snow away from foundation. Although, I’m not sure if it’ll even be possible next to driveway – location of a 7+’ pile of snow!!!

  89. EURO is much colder next week vs. gfs. Clearly gfs has been much better, so we shall see what ends up happening.

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