Quick Update Again

134 Comments

7:21AM

SUMMARY…
Eastern and southeastern areas were clipped by snow overnight. A sharp cut-off on the western edge left most areas west of I-95 out of the snow except some areas to the south. It’s all out to sea now and today will be a less cold day than yesterday along with dry weather but a gusty breeze. An offshore storm will toss some of its clouds over the region Thursday and also turn the wind a bit more to the northeast near the shore where a few snow showers may occur, especially Cape Cod. High pressure builds in Friday and Saturday with fair but cold weather. As March begins, so will a train of potential storm systems, the first late Sunday and early Monday with some kind of combination of precipitation. The next one may approach by late Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 10-15 inland, 15-20 coast. Wind light NW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM snow or mix. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM mix. Low 30. High 40.
TUESDAY: Sun to clouds. Night mix. Low 25. High 35.

134 thoughts on “Quick Update Again”

      1. Was for me. I am sick of roof raking! Doctor told me yesterday that not hydrating while I have been doing all this outside work probably caused my kidney stone this past weekend.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Fresh Snowy blanket of 1.5 inches overnight.

    Logan must be awfully close to the same figure and now must
    be at 101.n inches for the season. UNDER 7 inches from the record.

    Is this Jim Cantore tweet correct?

    Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 40m40 minutes ago
    W/ 1.9″ of snow last night #Boston blasts into the 100″ snow club with 101.8″ for only the second time in recorded history. So I shaved 🙂

  4. I have my doubts that Boston beats the record. We couldn’t buy a snow flake until late January and I feel that the snowy pattern is over. We are back to snow chances but with nothing panning out. I think there is a better than 60% chance we don’t see over 3″ for the rest of the winter/spring. If I’m wrong then I’m wrong.

    1. You are wrong. 06GFS has corrected big time on the midweek storm next week and does go back to developing a coastal which gives us a good up front dump, but on that run the coastal is a little too late to keep it all snow. It also juiced up the Sun-Mon storm a bit in terms of precip. Perhaps 2-5″ out of that? Here’s a look at the storm later next week…I like the trend back to the coastal redevelopment.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=186&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150225+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

      1. Next week does look like it could do the trick in terms of beating the record. You’re right about that. A word of caution, however. The storms appear similar to last weekend’s mixed bag. I think the interior does okay with these storms, but Boston only gets a few inches. This said, a few inches here, a few inches there, could get Boston over the hump.

      2. I respect your grabbing at straws for snow but how can I be wrong about something that hasn’t happened yet? I think what you meant to say was “I believe you will be wrong and here is why”.

        1. I guess grabbing for straws means looking at the pattern which continues to be conducive for snow for the next couple of weeks. I think it is you who is grasping for straws with your call for us coming up short on the record. I’m simply playing the odds as there are no guarantees in weather of course

          1. You read my post and interpreted the way you wanted to hear it. I never said we won’t break the record. I said “I have my doubts…..” you replied “You are wrong”.

            1. It’s all semantics coastal…..you ended with If I’m wrong then I’m wrong. I simply responded you are wrong. You are entitled to your opinion, but if you want it to hold weight it’s probably best to support it with something otherwise it’s weak and doesn’t engage people in a conversation. I can’t debate you on your opinion, but I can on data points that say one thing or another. You provided only opinion

    2. Coastal, You have a point. A metaphor is when a team is on a winning streak it doesn’t look like it can lose. But, when a team is on a losing streak it doesn’t look like it can win. Granted, we’re not on a losing streak regarding snow. Last night’s inch and a half proved that point. But, chances of significant snow-fall are really dwindling. I think we’ll get close with a few more inches of snow, but then fall short.

  5. I think we break it with the Sunday night system I agree. From a person who has been straight out with snow removal it sure is nice to have a couple back to back easy ones.

  6. Coastal and Joshua,

    I don’t understand how you guys can say we can’t muster up another 6 inches
    of Snow during the rest of the snow season. GEEZ we managed 94 inches
    in 30 days, you mean we can’t garner another 6 over the next several weeks?

    C’mon

    I think you guys are wrong.

    We shall see. 😀

    2. It is my opinion. Things change, patterns change…etc. OS can you look back at the previous 30 days before the snow started and tell me how much snow we received during that time period? I think you will then see how its possible.

      1. I’m not saying it isn’t possible the snow spigot has been turned off.
        I am presenting evidence that says it’s not turned off just yet.
        Of course you guys can have your opinions. I still don’t agree with them. 😀

    3. The 30 days prior to the snow blitz starting on 1/24/2015, Boston received 2.4″ of snow. That is late December to Late January. I know February is the snowiest month but that’s not a lot of snow for the time period around the heart of winter.

  8. OS, I do think the pattern has changed, a lot with regard to snow, but not much with regard to cold. You are right. 6 measly inches is VERY doable. Yet, I think it will be hard to accomplish with the kinds of storms that lie ahead. An inch or two here and there may in fact do it. But it’s not a sure thing. I think that we get MUCH more rain at the coast than snow. That’s an opinion, and one that may be entirely wrong. After the middle of next week I see a more significant pattern change towards milder temps (not warm) and few snow chances.

    1. I don’t agree that the pattern has changed. It certainly has not changed
      to a pattern that would preclude snow. It may have modified a bit so that
      we don’t get as much snow. But the cold is still there, which means it can
      still snow.

  9. I gtd. we break the record. There is no question in my mind that it happens. Pattern hasn’t changed yet so we can’t say about what happens before this pattern started.

  10. No offense Joshua but we will break it and you have called over and over that we would miss storms, low numbers etc…and just the opposite. 6 inches will be done next week.

  11. I’m surprised Boston got as much snow as it did last night… Would love to know the ratio on that, must have been very high. Rather disappointed in the HRRR, that’s a pretty bad miss on its part for last night.

    When does the record fall? I’m thinking March 4. I could see a couple inches of snow on Monday, but that doesn’t look like a big storm, and p-type may be an issue on that one. March 4 is a potentially bigger storm, might be a snow-to-rain situation, but that one probably sets us over the mark to beat. And if not then, there’s still a month to go.

      1. If you look at an HRRR that was initialized last evening at 7PM, it indicated NO snow for Boston. IF you look at the NAM and GFS also initialized at 7PM last night, they BOTH showed a couple of inches for Boston. I don’t understand that for the life of me.

  12. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 5m5 minutes ago
    BREAKING: All NOAA Weather Radio stations from NWS Taunton are off the air until further notice due to computer outage.

  13. Anybody “rooting” for more snow at this point is just wishing more misery on their neighbors. What with the property damage, roof collapses, trouble with the MBTA even deaths! not to mention that a lot of retail businesses and restaurants are almost defunct after 5-6 weeks of virtually no sales I think we’ve had enough? That being said none of us have any control over a record being broken or not..

    1. You are correct. The weather “Geek” in some of us just want to see the record broken. (We can’t help it) We do NOT wish hardship on anyone. We have endured so much this Winter, why not take down the record for our efforts. That is pretty much the size of it at this point.

      And you are so right, doesn’t matter what any of us wish, the weather will
      do what it wants to do.

  15. Hmm… leave the room for a few and…

    😛

    Pattern next week supports adequate threats to reach or exceed the record at Boston. There is more to meteorology than reading model output. There is an actual scientific process involved. At times this process fails but more often than not it is successful. It’s the best we can do. Otherwise it’s just like picking lottery numbers.

    Good day all. 🙂

  16. Here’s a quick thought for those involved in the “pattern change/will we break the record” debate. Back in December and January what were the models predicting for snowfall at that point? If memory services me correctly they weren’t predicting much. Then the pattern changed and the models were predicting copious amounts of snow. Now at this point the models are still predicting snowfall for the coming 10 days or so…just not as much as in Feb. Does that mean there has been a pattern change? I don’t know…I’ll leave that to the experts (TK, JMA, WxWatcher, etc). But I do think that we still have a good chance at breaking the record given what the models are putting out. There are 35 days till the end of March and if I were a betting man I wouldn’t bet against the record falling.

  17. Were still going to have snow threats going into March. I don’t see any blockbuster storms for the rest of the winter. A blockbuster to me is widespread foot plus snow amounts. Is it still a cold and snowy pattern heading into March yes but not to the degree as we have had for this month and going back to the 24th of January.

    1. We have 35 days to the end of March. Perhaps we are finally done
      with the parade of block busters, however, who’s to say there isn’t another
      lurking in our future? Wouldn’t surprise me the way this Winter has gone.

  18. Coastal, I’m open to the possibility that your opinion could end up being correct.

    It does give me pause that we don’t need many more inches of snow to break the record, but given the time of year and the potential for more borderline precipitation scenarios close to Boston (particularly Logan), I can absolutely see Logan falling short as a possibility.

    Some of the tone of the give and take above ………. my goodness …….

  19. Ahhhh the do we or don’t we debate. I’d go with we do which is based on nothing but the fact that we cannot seem to shake the snow….literally. But I believe we are close…again based on nothing but a feeling.

    I think some of the discussion (by me of course 🙂 ) of how we approach the media mets can also apply to how we approach each other’s opinions/views/comments/expertise. Hard to say someone is right or wrong before something actually takes place….eh?

    Momma Vicki signing off….for a while anyway 😈

  21. NWS at Taunton at it again. They do NOT know how to add.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-s2NwwUsAApXKo.png

    They STATED that Boston needs 7.8 inches to tie their seasonal snow record
    of 107.8 inches. Not for nothing, but I thought the record was 107.6 inches?
    No matter,

    We are at 101.8
    107.8-101.8 = 6 inches and NOT 7.8 inches!!!!!

    AND IF the record IS 107.6 inches then we need 5.8 inches, NOT 7.8 inches

    GIVE ME A BREAK GUYS!!!!!

  22. Its 107.6
    Even if the next two storm threats earlier next week are quick bursts of snow that produce a few inches before a changeover you could get the amount needed to break the record.

  25. Since late January, I have been wrong more times than not. Not, as Hadi alluded to, by saying we’d miss certain storms. But, as Hadi correctly alluded to, by saying we’d get less than was forecast.

    OS, I sincerely believe we have entered a different phase. The cold is still here, although the last single digit cold in Boston this winter may occur this weekend. The snow chances also exist. I agree with you. But, we’re not in the same situation we were a couple of weeks ago. We appear to have entered a phase in which there’s: a. either too much of a west to east jet as well as some suppression from highs to our north that keep storms from hitting us directly (last night is a fine example of this; we have another one coming tomorrow night that will impact us even less); or storms get `too’ close to us once the highs retreat or move too far east and we’re in mixed bag territory. I am not a betting man. But, I think it’ll be hard to get 6 inches from a few mixed bag storms here in the city. Generally, at the coast, these storms under-produce on snow and over-produce on rain. I reiterate: I could be (and probably am going to be) wrong in my judgment. But, I see the record as being harder to beat than one would think given what has occurred over the past 30 days.

  26. From NWS

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    @JpDave13 You are correct. Too many numbers. Will repost in a few mins. Thx for the catch.

    1. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
      CORRECTED graphic coming, due to errors on the Boston seasonal snowfall record as well as the subtraction. Apologize for the errors.

  29. Pete Bouchard ‏@pbouchardon7 51m51 minutes ago
    Weather talk: bit hard on the RPM/HRRR models last night…still chewing on that forecast. #yeesh

    YA THINK? Those models blew chunks last night.

  30. February 25. NOT March 25. They are literally a few inches away. Pattern relaxed but not changed. The record is going.

    1. I hope this doesn’t screw up my travel plans. Heading to Florida On Tuesday on a 9:30 a.m. flight with a connection in Newark. Please let there be no delays.

      1. Yup. Likely to change, unfortunately, it could change
        the strength and/or track. We’ll be on the watch for sure.

  32. No question in my mind the record is broken, and it will happen next week with three storm chances and plenty of cold air around. Even if they turn into snow/mix to rain events or grazers, it only takes 2″ from each storm to break the record. And lest we not forget, we still have the entire rest of March into early April to pick up some snow accumulation. And yes, you can still pick up snow in an unfavorable pattern if everything comes together right.

    That said, we are still in this pattern (though a bit more relaxed as TK said), and there are signs in the longer range guidance that any wholesale pattern change is now going to be delayed even further.

    To me the bigger question is – what will the final snow total be at Boston and by how much will the record be broken? IMO, the record is not going to be tied or broken by an inch or two, it will be shattered by 10 or more inches.

  34. The 0z Euro, ironically, has now flipped with the GFS solution and is showing a cutter for the midweek storm next week. Even so, it has Mondays system cold enough for snow and dropping a few inches on Boston, and then a thump of 3 or 4″ of snow Wednesday before a changeover. This is the run total snow accumulation thru next Sat….
    http://i.imgur.com/QUqjUK2.jpg

    So even with a weak overrunning snow event and a cutter, this solution would still likely get the record broken by Wed.

    Will see what the 12z run has to say. I’m running into a meeting but will check in later!

    1. Thanks Mark. We always appreciate your input.
      12Z Euro a little slow coming out. It must have a headache!

  35. the amount of money I made by shoveling roofs off and removing ice dams, Did my house for free and my elderly neighbors roof as well for free and then did 3 more for 500 bucks, and i was cheap compared to what other people been charging. The mix of this and my actual job is making for a good amount of money to pay for college 🙂

  36. Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 21m 21 minutes ago
    At this point, certainly looks like we’ll pass the record for snowiest season next week. Things may change, but that’s the rub for now.

  37. Pretty good warmup on that run of the GFS for the last 84 hours of the run compared to what we have had. Not that it will ever happen!

    1. NO!!!! We already had a 2-hour delay in Plymouth this morning. Have I ever told you how much I despise the delayed start?!?!?! Talk about completely messing up your schedule for the day.

        1. About 3 inches of fluff in Plymouth. The town is just so big that it takes forever to get all of the roads clear.

          1. Same thing happens with Framingham as far as clearing. But in the 36 years we have been here Framingham has only delayed once. They used to go by the theory that in a large town it is just too difficult to pull off so they just cancel.

            They are supposed to be sending questionnaires to parents to find out what they prefer to do with the makeup days. I say drop the 180 day rule.

    2. Looks like another New Brunswick/Maritime special. They have not been spared of winter’s fury at all. Don’t have current information on the snow-pack in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, but my guess is that it’s pushing 150cm.

  41. Hmmmm
    NOT sure what this means, but sounds OMINOUS

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 13m13 minutes ago
    ECWMF over next10 days has Snowmeggedon like totals mw into MA/NE Details not etched in stone,, but that wild period is brewing

    Anyone have Euro Snow Maps for next 10 days?

      1. Well to seasoned New Englanders like us, SNOWMEGGEDON
        means A CRAP LOAD more snow than even another foot+
        snow storm.

        One cannot use that term lightly.

        Perhaps to someone down south that term means 2 or 3
        4 inch snowstorms, which is LAUGABLE for us.

        He needs to define his terms.

  42. Its media behind those terms and always looking to get your attention with a big headline.
    For this winter I would say it was a month late but once it started it hit us like a ton of bricks with record snow in Boston for month of February along with close if not the coldest February on record. No one in the future should declare winter over in early mid January.

  43. I didnt really see anything on the euro that would suggest such a strong reaction. Maybe he’s ensemble fishing?

  45. Hi all. A rare 45 min at home as things have been lately. I’ve either been out shoveling, running errands, visiting Dad at the hospital, etc.

    Quick update on Dad…
    He is moving from hospital to rehab today. They have the kidney/blood infection under control but will still be on antibiotics for a while longer. They will be working on the kidney stone soon. He also contracted an intestinal infection but that seems to be short-lived. Doc thought the rehab would be better for him now and they have a doctor there. Ironically all this time in the hospital visiting has resulted in my mom catching the stomach bug (you know, the kind where you can’t even hold water down). The best thing about those is that they don’t last long, but she’s down for the count today. My brother is heading to the new place this evening while I cautiously look after Mom. I’ll make a trip to the new place tomorrow. Mom will probably be sidelined until Friday. Fun times in February ’15. We’ll remember this month for very many reasons. 😉

    And that is my lead-in to weather. I haven’t looked at much today but am going to look things over now before I make a drop-off trip with my daughter to Somerville. I’ll check back in with updated thoughts in a while. 😀

    1. TK – prayers and positive thoughts for your mom and dad and for you. The last thing you all needed on top of everything else was a stomach bug. You know we are all fine here and want you to take care of your mom, dad and you first! Thank you and hugs to all.

      1. Thanks Vicki! I’m going down there a few times to check on her and scrubbing the hands good after. I told her this and she had a good laugh. She knows I obviously don’t want to bring that bug into the apartment up here. We’ll do the best we can. 🙂

        1. One word (if you believe I can actually limit it to one which of course I have already managed not to)

          BLEACH

    2. TK-I applaud your dedication and patience as you provide care for aging parents. Peace and tranquility is my hope for you in the near future.

    3. TK. Glad Dad is on the mend and sorry your Mom got the stomach bug. I will be glad too when March arrives Sunday. It has been one thing after another in February for so many people i know in addition to the weather.

  46. I saw that tweet above from Bastardi.

    The 12z ECMWF delivers a general .75 QPF over the next 10 days to SNE. Some which falls during a time where critical thickness levels and other indicators suggest that some areas will see mix or rain as part of that .75. Really bad headline unless he referring to only down-east Maine.

    This is all the point I referred to in my sarcastic I love the ECMWF tweet and the I am going to tweet out a model snow map so people will go to my website or watch my newscast statment. Only in this case he didn’t tweet out the actual map because it does not support his statement, with the exception of an area with a small population base.

  47. I agree with you TK and it has been a February to remember OR forget… I have been dealing with similar things myself. Kids, wife, and myself getting the flu. Assisting my Mom who has been fighting Melanoma for years which has now spread to her brain. Hoping she will be healthy enough to attend my brothers wedding in California in October.

    1. Oh no, Scott. So so sorry to hear your news too. I’m sending prayers your way that October will find your mom shedding mom tears at your brother’s wedding.

    2. The challenges life throws at us. All we can do is our best. My best wishes to you and the family.

  49. TK…glad to hear that Dad is making progress. Praying your mom recovers quickly and that you avoid it. They are definitely lucky to have you as their son. You are a good man.

    Scott – so sorry to hear about your mom. Prayers and positive thoughts coming your way.

  50. Close call tomorrow!

    I think the Cape will need shovels.
    I think Boston will see flakes.

    That hope for the pattern change in March is fading fast. I think the title of the preview is going to be “March Misery” to reflect how the majority of people will react to the pattern that will be here for at least the first half of the month. More later…

    Hitting the road for a while.

      1. I agree – stay on Cape – or better yet out to sea. We head to Boston again tomorrow and it would be nice to have no snow threat!

    2. I had been thinking (hoping) around 2/25 we would see a change. And there are some subtleties that have changed. I think the strength of the western ridge does diminish and the southern stream has become more active. What I think happens is less widespread big snow events as some of the heaviest precip stays south or east of part of SNE, but generally cold with precip events of varying intensity impacting the area on average every 3rd day.

    1. I will say it again…why is Woburn always always always on the edge of the snow? It’s like a cosmic curse.

      1. 18z GFS snow map

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

        Not a whole bunch there, however, the 500MB flow
        is beginning to look ominous. A little more bend in that
        and we get it once again.

        Surface

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022518&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=021

        500MB

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015022518&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=021

  52. It seems as though we are all feeling the pains of this winter, I hope we all get through it and with Gods help I know we will.

    Heard “Ol’ Miss” got snow today, the distance to which this winter has come is incredible along with a lot of records being broken. Are there any states that did not get snow this year or at least below freezing temperatures? How many more records can be broken this season? Thanks TK for the up to date information as I’m always quoting things you say when the weather comes up but always defer the credit to you. Be well!

  54. Sorry to hear about your mom Scott, and yours too TK. I had the stomach bug last week, as did 6 others here at work. It is definitely going around. Unfortunately for me, it took the whole week before I felt right again.

  55. Here is the 12z Euro snow map thru the end of its run.
    http://i.imgur.com/hxq9Rd2.jpg

    I believe what Joe Bastardi was referring to was that it crushes parts of the mid Atlantic, PA, and Upstate NY. It treats the Monday system similar to the GFS, cold with a few inches of snow. It is the midweek system that is now suppressed and crushes the mid Atlantic, while getting shunted south of us. It then ends with a quick moving coastal low on Friday that would have ptype issues for SNE.

    Take this solution with a grain of salt. The 0z Euro has the midweek storm as a cutter tracking over Detroit and now 12 hours later it is a suppressed system missing us to the south and dumping a foot of snow on DC?? No consistency whatsoever.

  56. A CONCERN for tomorrow.

    I mentioned it earlier when I posted a wind map.

    We will have an ARCTIC front pass tomorrow while this system is just to
    Our South. I am NOT saying this will happen, BUT should the wind
    field be just right we could have a coastal front with winds NW just inland,
    with Winds NE to NNE just off shore. With moisture from system and more importantly from the Ocean and the added convergence from a coastal front,
    could we END UP with More SNOW?????

    Just something to watch, most especially the way this season has gone so far.

    BTW the NWS had some wording that doesn’t sound great.

    MODELS INDICATE
    DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.

    We can add that to the above.

Comments are closed.