From No Threat To Snow Threat

261 Comments

5:36PM

SUMMARY…
Before you panic, it’s not a big threat. But it should come as no surprise that a storm that looked as if it would pass harmlessly out to sea is going to be close enough to spread some snow into parts of southeastern New England. This will happen Thursday, but it’s not going to be all that much, and will not be a long-lasting event either. It will be a low pressure area passing southeast of the region that causes this. The storm’s moisture shield and some added ocean enhancement will combine to bring a light snowfall from about Boston to Cape Cod. See below for accumulations. This event is history by late Thursday night and high pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday with fair but cold weather. This is how February will end. March arrives Sunday and it will be a month that will at least start out with a colder than average and somewhat stormy weather pattern. Not looking for a repeat of the sledge hammer snow barrage of February, but there will be some threats of snow, getting Boston very close to if not into record territory for seasonal snowfall. The first system will arrive Sunday night into Monday. The system behind that one is due by Wednesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10-15, some colder spots interior valleys. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly from the I-95 belt southeastward with a coating to 1 inch accumulation except 1 to 3 inches from Plymouth County MA through Cape Cod. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows 0-5 inland valleys, 5-10 elsewhere except 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 25.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 10. High 30.
MONDAY: Cloudy with snow early, then clearing. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow or mix possible. Low 20. High 40.

261 thoughts on “From No Threat To Snow Threat”

  6. According to NWS the Wednesday storm is trending colder with snow more likely than mix/rain. Based on the latest CPC outlook shows cold & dry after the midweek storm.

    Any chance of some serious warmth (w/o rainfall) the second half of March TK??

  8. This would be the year that if we get a blockbuster snow event in April I would not be shocked. I have a feeling this snow is going to put up a fight leaving but I sure hope not. Nobody wants it anymore after this month even snow personal.

    1. It doesn’t matter if you like snow or not but to have 100 inches in a five week in a row stretch its just insane. What did we have down before this stretch for snow like 5 or so inches. Another kid could have died yesterday after falling through the roof of frugal Fannies. He fell through the sky light but landed on the coat racks which they say probably saved his life. This is a weekly thing now with people falling and it is sad. But all that snow can’t just sit there.a guy from work went up to clear his roof and fell off and now has broken back, broken arm and leg and is in rehab probably for awhile. In regards to people falling through sky lights at buisnes buildings that should not happen as there suposly to be covered with a screen to prevent you from falling through.

        1. I’m just putting it out there all the problems the snow is causing in general. I’ve made damn good money this month but I’ve just had enough. Some days I honestly even didn’t know what day it was seriously. That first storm kept me away from home for 3 days, that’s alot.

  9. Not that I would trust the HRRR at this point, but for giggles

    Surface chart for 8AM tomorrow

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022522/full/3hap_sfc_f15.png

    500 mb Chart for 8AM tomorrow

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022522/full/vort_500_f15.png

    That is just TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT!!

    Also radar reflectivity for 8AM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022522/full/cref_sfc_f15.png

    That is one heck of a BLOB of precip.

    1. That 500MB chart is showing some decent cyclonic curvature.
      MORE so than the NAM and GFS showed. SCARY stuff.

  10. 6-10 inches forecasted down where I vacation in Williamsburg VA. Between this snowfall and the one last week they will be above their normal snowfall 9 inches for season.
    Were dodging the bullet with this one.

      1. That’s unusual in March. Well, snow in Eastern North Carolina. The interior is a different story. Whatever falls will melt quickly. My sister lived down there and certainly experienced some large snow-falls. But, the snow melted away quickly every time, even if it fell in January.

  12. Read about the 17 year old kid who fell through the skylight, John. I think the clothing rack saved his life. You mentioned this as well. There will likely be more injuries/possible fatalities and lots of damage to the economy. I saw yet another rain drain bite the dust today. It came crashing down a couple of doors from me, near where the wrought-iron railing fell. Thankfully, nobody was hurt.

    Relatively mild air (40s) is coming fairly soon. Once it hits the 40s on a sunny day, 50s are reachable given the sun angle. Still, before we hit the 40s it’ll be much colder than normal and there will be snow/mix/rain threats. Someone said they want “warmth.” Sustained warmth rarely happens in March in coastal New England. Or April for that matter. For sustained warmth we’re going to have to wait a couple of months. This said, I think we will have an occasional 70 degree day, and we will see that happening as soon as the end of March.

        2. Sure it could happen anytime in March with the Sun Angle, however, with the DEEP snow pack, additional snows and forecasted continued cold weather, very highly unlikely. 😀

          1. Valid points oldsalty but the more sunny days we have those piles will dwindle down regardless of the Tempature outside. I’m already seeing it .

    1. That’s painfully close!!! Will need to monitor for future adjustments. One small buckle and we’re staring at the record tomorrow!

      1. I’m afraid to place any trust in the HRRR, but have a look
        at the 500MB and 250MB charts I posted above. WOW!
        Is that ever close and it does Hint at the very buckle you mention.

        We’ll keep watching. Time for some TV 😀

  15. Listen…everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion as I am entitled to mine. Also, let me be clear that I have been WRONG several times this winter. But allow me have the forum for just a moment…

    WHAT ARE PEOPLE SMOKING???!!!

    The likes of Josh, Charlie and Coastal can WISHCAST all they want and yes, it isn’t highly unusual that March in the past has experienced 70 degree days, but this AIN’T GONNA happen this year folks. Although in a slightly modified form, this cold snowy pattern has been repeating itself over and over again and there is very little end in sight. I will not make such a bold statement as to say that it is IMPOSSIBLE that we see 70 this year. Yet this continuous back and forth banter is plain foolish just because March is two days away. We all realize that the sun angle is different and more conducive for warmer days ahead…BUT… As much as I respect the likes of Josh, with all due respect, please understand that the record for snow this year will be smashed in Boston and that warm spring-like temperatures are not on the horizon according to the long term outlook. Nevertheless, days in the 40s due to your “sun angle”, a term that often is thrown around misleadingly, may be sprinkled in at times over the next 30 days, but LET’S BE SERIOUS FOLKS. Spring will be on hold for many days and perhaps many weeks to come. GET OVER IT!

    PHEW!!! I feel much better now 😀 😀 😀

    5. Arod, please copy and paste my post that states I am forecasting 70 temperatures. Again some reads something and interprets what they want to hear. Very poor post.

      1. Nah. I didnt accuse you of forecasting 70, but I accused you of wishcasting which is your choice. Like someone else has mentioned earlier, your predictions are unsubstantiated and are not supported by facts. If they are, I apologize. I would be curious to see what you are seeing.

        1. Wish casting and state an opinion are very different. The fact of the matter is patterns can change quickly with no notice, just like we have experienced with all this snow. It sounds like your suffering from diarrhea of the mouth. You should write yourself a prescription and take them all.

  16. Northern Mississippi, both by radar and by obs, appears to have gotten a significant wet snowstorm today. I see a civil emergency message in effect or being used in north-central Mississippi.

    1. I talked to my sister in law in Atlanta a bit ago and she said ice and snow earlier but rain at that moment. Radar showed her right on edge of snow. Everything is canceled and they are being asked to stay home until at least 10:00 am tomorrow

      1. Wow. I did notice Atlanta was 35F with rain, so they are close to wintry precip.

        I wonder, once the storm gets a bit further east and some colder air drains in, if there’ll be any precip left to get them some ice or snow …..

        2. I work with a vendor in the Atlanta area and they already announced that they will have limited staff during the storm.

          1. Sister in law said banks etc are all closing. She said they do nothing to treat surface roads but are pretreating the highways/main roads.

  18. March and April to me are fickle months. April more so than March. In April I have seen accumulating snow heat waves and everything in between.

  20. I’m disappointed in this place today.

    As my 7th grade English teacher said: When you get your report card you might see a Z minus!

    1. Sorry TK. I am a 40 year old man. Just stating my observations. However, I would be glad to stop posting anything moving forward and just be an observer if you that is your wish. I would hate for anyone other than myself to be disappointed in me.

    3. TK, my thought is I understand everyone is stressed out with all of this snow and the frustrations that go with it along with everything else going on in people’s lives right now not related to the snow. We all are entitled to voice our thoughts and opinions here and that is what makes this blog great. What I would say to those on here that are going back and forth with one another is that if you have been on here for a while you know who those are that are posting and just stating there thoughts and you know who those are that have support behind their thoughts from science (models, atomsphere interpretation, etc.). There is no need to get into an argument over it and make accusations. We all need to get along otherwise this will not continue to be a place we all love to visit.

    4. Didn’t intend to get everyone all up in arms. I apologize. An observer of this board I shall become moving forward. It has been a pleasure being a part of this community. Be well everyone! And stay warm 🙂

      1. You can continue to post. The only thing I would do, no matter the author, would be to delete any comments that I feel are a direct attack on someone. Of course it’s a judgement call but no different than a ref in a game when it comes down to it.

        Post your thoughts. The only thing I ask of everyone is to stay in the general guidelines previously discussed.

      2. Keep posting. I enjoy your thoughts on the weather. All I was saying is that everyone across the blog when posting their thoughts, opinions, etc. should say why they don’t support what others have said but we don’t need to call each other out by name because I think that takes away from this blog and makes those bloggers want to contribute less.

  22. Good morning. What a beautiful morning it is. Dark Gray skies. Looks like snow.
    Cold, 18 Degrees. Really nice and peaceful.

    Here is the current composite radar. Snow is close by

    http://i.imgur.com/kwiPGKY.png

    Here is the latest water vapor loop

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20150226&endTime=-1&duration=12

    Latest HRRR snowmap ending 5Pm today

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022607/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    Surface map at 5Am today

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

  24. Boston and Marshfield and I think Blue Hill all have surface winds at 010.

    Boston Harbor buoy is at 360.

    Will be interesting to see if they get to 020 or 030, to add in a bit of ocean moisture.

    I quickly peaked at the NAM’s projected 10m surface winds on the 00z last night, and it looked like the best time on it for a NNE wind was 15z (10am) to 21z (4pm) which perfectly lines up with OS time listed above with the best radar presentation.

  26. GFS is all over the place for the midweek storm next week or shall I say storms? It is sending the primary low towards Chicago up towards the hudson bay to basically die stringing out some precip(snow to rain) our way as it moves north. It then looks like it tries to develop a coastal along the frontal boundary a day or so later which looks like it would be snow. I don’t think it really knows what it wants to do yet. It still looks like 2-5 for Monday is on track. I have no idea what any other model is showing so I’d be interested to see what the Euro or the CMC have to say about next week

    1. Indeed. I was scratching my head looking at that this morning.

      Last nigh Eric pronounced that the SNOW Record would fall Next week
      for CERTAIN.

  27. Huntsville, AL set a record yesterday for snowfall …… 8.1 inches.

    It broke the old record for the date, which was 1.4 inches ………….. It also broke the all time February record by 0.1 inch, when it snowed 8 inches back on 2/15/58.

    Info from NWS in Alabama.

  33. Step away from the models and the radar.

    Lets look at observations. Any snow making it to the ground is south of Trenton NJ. Generally dew points are between 3-10 in SNE at 9am even on Nantucket it is only 11. That is very dry air for the very weak precip on the north edge of system to permeate.

    You have a weak shortwave moving SW to NE, with the best lift found in the south half of the system. That NE motion is being shunted east as it runs into the the cold dry air with 850 temps at -10 or colder over SNE. The heaviest precip (which isn’t that heavy) is being forced south and east 50-60 miles south of a line of NYC to ACK. The modeled QPF is not reaching the ground.

    1. I see your point.

      In general, the radar display I use typically only displays echoes reaching
      the ground. This would be one of the rare times that was not the case.
      Not sure what sensitivity it is using. Must be a really sensitive setting IF it is showing echoes that are not making it to the ground. 😀

      Even so, still watching for possible ocean effect snow near the coast.

      1. Go to a good extended base reflectivity radar and look at the DBZ levels then look at the DP’s in the area. Sub 10 DP’s with what are know to be very cold temps in the snow growth region of the atmosphere, anything under 25 dbz probably not making it to the ground.

  34. Wind direction at Boston Bouy, 16 Miles East of Boston is from 020 Degrees.
    Will we get any Ocean Effect is the question?

    1. More likely to see freezing spray along the immediate coast than any significant Ocean Effect with this set up

      1. TK Spoke of Possible Ocean enhancement in the discussion
        summary above. One of the reasons we are searching to see
        IF it appears.

        Water temperature and 850MB temperature differential
        would support ocean effect, IF we can get the wind to
        cooperate. What would limit that? Too dry?

        1. Dry yes but also acutal position and weakness of the traversing and then departing shortwave and lack of pressure differential, limiting the strength of the sustained easterly winds before they turn.

  35. I see some acrimony showing up on this great forum that TK hosts. That is a shame but it does happen when human’s interact and things like tone are so hard to detect in the written word, especially from virtual friends, but actual strangers.

    For many they have reached the breaking point with this winter, but this forum is populated by many weather lovers and winter storm enthusiasts. We have come this far and they want the snow record broken at Boston. I can’t blame them for that. Those two groups have people who are obviously looking for different outcomes in the data they analyze, as they each have a bit of a confirmation bias as they try to connect the data points.

    I give you this example, Eric at WBZ is being championed at being right on this winter. Well, if you look at December and most of January he had a lot of missed forecasts as he was looking for a snowier solution. As the pattern evolved his high end prognostications verified. Pro’s can be much like anyone else. They look for data that supports or confirms their preferred outcome.

    I nailed the two month period Thanksgiving to January 25th. However, that pattern lined up with my general methodology of looking for factors that will limit extreme events and not enhance and promote them. As the worm turned (under frozen ground) I have been a little less accurate, as my biases tend to betray me in extreme set ups. I for one always find it to be better to be wrong on going for 18-24″ or 20-26″ and end up with areas that get 24-30″ because lets face it there is not huge difference between 24″ and 30″ as far as sensible impact, than constantly go for a widespread 12″ on most moderate events and be in error, ending up with 4-6″. The difference in those six inches in much more noticeable on a practical level. But none the less I was short on the high end on two storms this winter.

    Do you kind of see where I am coming from? Both pro’s, enthusiasts, and novices are going to have some general biases that are going to inform their opinion / forecast and unless they are being done with maliciousness or with some intent to drive profit (my issue with some media / web services) what is the real harm? Certainly there is room for a wide range of opinions among a knowledgeable group.

    2. Agreed. I really love the snow and enjoy the enthusiasm/energy on the board around each storm. I also can appreciate the sentiment around enough is enough, where the hell is spring.

      Hope we break the record without any further disruption or damage.

  36. I can confirm what JMA is saying – the radar has been indicating snow over CT for the past several hours and we haven’t received a flake yet. Most of what you are seeing on the radar in SNE is virga and not reaching the ground. Precip is not heavy enough to saturate the column.

  38. 0z Euro run total snow accumulation through next weekend:
    http://i.imgur.com/do7bEZp.jpg

    The Euro still looks similar to the GFS for Sun night/Monday – cold and all snow with widespread light to moderate accumulations.

    For the Wednesday system, it has backed off on the suppressed solution and now has the storm tracking across Ohio and popping a secondary low south of us which locks some cold air in at least, at first. That enables a good thumping of snow up front. The 6z GFS however has the storm cutting way west over Chicago which would yield a quick change to rain.

    Both models have another storm riding up towards us along the stalled cold front at the end of the week. Evolution of this storm I think will depend on what happens with the Wed system.

      1. The supposed “high res” ECMWF is pretty confused on the 12z and ooz runs. Take that ooz run it is pushing critical thickness levels well above frz well north of the Mass / NH border say ~545-550 THK on average in SNE yet wants to stay all 10:1 or better snow for the duration. I have no problem with an all snow forecast if that is what you think is a logical output, but when a model displays those types of snow total based on the climatic set up that it is simultaneously presenting it is telling me it has no clue and on the not so subtle features that its high res capabilities should be able to differentiate.

        1. Well then I am confused.

          That snow Map Mark produced is a product of EuroWx.com.
          If I am not mistaken, it simply takes the EURO model QPF and for what ever portion
          of the QPF it deems would be Snow (don’t know if that’s them or the Euro itself) it
          computes the accumulation based on a 10:1 ration. Doesn’t matter if atmopsheric conditions support 15:1 OR 5:1, it spits out 10:1.

          Mark do you know?

          1. I think you misunderstood my post. The 00z is showing climatic conditions that would support significant mixed precipitation but it is showing it all as precip falling and accumulating as 10:1 snow.

            That EURO WX snow map is not the actual ECMWF snowtool or snow map output, it is manipulated map by the website using their own data set and applying ECWMF QPF output

            1. OS, Eurowx.com does not use exclusively a 10:1 ratio, it uses some sort of algorithm. During the last blizzard its ratios were 15:1 or more. Looking at the freezing lines during the Wed storm, it keeps most of SNE below 32 at the surface while the 0C 850mb line gets up as far as the Pike. I agree with JMA that this solution seems weird based on the track of the parent low towards Cleveland. In the past 3 or 4 runs, this model has waffled north and south with the storm track by 300-400 miles at a time. It is very confused.

            2. Well if that is the case, is that the Euro itself or the EuroEx.com snow algorithm.

              IF I understand you correctly, you are saying that the Euro itself is effed up?

              1. What Mark showed the EURO WX calculation. They don’t pay enough to the ECMWF to get the full suite…

                I think the ECMWF itself is continuing its pattern of confusedness…

    1. Matt Noyes retweeted
      Keith Gray ‏@mersdwxman 22m22 minutes ago
      @MattNoyesNECN Oceaneffect snow showers on #CapeAnn Very light

  40. Work with me here OS. A few flurries or a snow shower is not what I think is met by ocean enhancement. Are you looking for accumulating snow off the ocean or a some spray and some flurries mixed in? What are you defining as ocean effect snow enhancement? For me it would be areas along the ocean receiving accumulating snow that other areas will not.

    1. I’m just looking for anything. I certainly know there is difference between
      accumulating ocean effect and ocean flurries/snow showers.

      I’m simply just watching to see what I see.

      No Worries.

      1. I am not worried at all. Just more looking for wording help to be able to offer greater clarity. Would some flurries or a snow shower define enhancement? If it does for most that that would be the way to go or does enhancement trigger the idea in people’s mind of additional accumulating snow beyond an area wide forecast? Always looking for better terminology that makes things easier to define.

        1. JMA, clearly enhancement in this case means
          additional snow accumulation due to ocean effect.

          TK mentioned ocean enhancement. Specifically here are his words:

          The storm’s moisture shield and some added ocean enhancement will combine to bring a light snowfall from about Boston to Cape Cod.

          Of course, you are allowed a differing opinion.

          I am simply searching for that “possible” enhancement.

          1. That is certainly a valid forecast and I would have gone for that last night, but based on current trends I would lean more towards freezing spray the further N/NE you go and otherwise flurries and possibly light snow showers coming off the ocean, but adding little in the way of additional accumulation.

  45. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 5m5 minutes ago
    I spy snowflakes in #Boston. That makes it 19/26 days this February. Pretty much ready for spring now.

    19 out of 26 days! Incredible!!!

  46. The fact the models (including the GFS) are having a difficult time and wavering significantly on the outcomes of systems next week suggests to me at least some modification of the pattern we have been in since the barrage of snow began. The pattern looks to me to be modifying into the type of pattern TK had been predicting for Feb, a cold and dry pattern with chances of lighter snow events being on the northern edge of significant Mid-Atlantic snows. Not saying we cant get snow in this pattern (ahem, last year, lol) but the chances of 20+ inchers is much less in this pattern.

  48. Steady light snow falling. Visibility has come down, but it is not that low.
    Perhaps 3 or 4 miles, so the snow is still quite light.

  49. What I find amazing is the temperature.

    Average climatological high for 2/26 at Logan : 40.8F.

    Given the clouds, the N wind and some light snow and that its currently 19F, its probably going to struggle to get to 25F. The high 2 days ago I think was 19F. Impressive.

    Who knew that the January proverb, “as the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger” would perfectly describe February this year.

    Visibility just lowered to maybe 1.5 to 2 miles and the snow just went from individual flurries to a steady, light misty snow.

    1. Same here Tom. Visibility just came down some here more to about the range
      you described, say 1.5 miles or so. Don’t have to squint to see the snow.
      Readily visible out the window.

  50. JR has a full fledged snowstorm on Wednesday with a high of 34. There has to be at the very least a mix or some other frozen precip with a temp that high. I get the feeling that there will be lots of QPF at stake regardless.

    If Wednesday is all/mostly snow, Boston sees 120″+ for sure!!

    1. Not this time of year. Can get a complete snow event with that
      temperature.

      I remember a February when I was young and specifically remember
      Don Kent crowing about the snow with temperatures across the area
      as high as 36 Degrees. NO RAIN whatsoever. Remember that day
      like it was yesterday. Was out and about in it. Way Cool I have to tell you.

    2. Almost a week away so hopefully something will change between now and then. I admit to enjoying the snow but I wouldn’t mind moving on at this point.

      1. Wednesday certainly looks stronger than Sunday / Monday, but much more of a mix or rain possibility with the 2nd storm that will need to be evaluated as the days draw closer.

        Ok. Been fun chatting. Enjoy your day folks!

  52. Visibility has come down some more. Very close to 1 mile now.

    Synoptic? OR Ocean? You be the judge. I believe it to be Both.

    1. Well, from wherever it is coming from, it is quite steady now here in Dorchester. Looking at the radar, it appears it is coming from both the southwest AND from the ocean…if that is meteorologically possible.

      1. That’s EXACTLY what I see as well and OF COURSE it is possible.

        We saw that with several recent storms. When there was a lull in the synoptic snow, we could see the ocean snow moving in.
        At times we could see both.

  54. Bouy 16 Miles East of Boston:

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (10:50 am EST)
    1550 GMT on 02/26/2015:

    Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )

    At Stellwagen

    Conditions at 44029 as of
    (10:04 am EST)
    1504 GMT on 02/26/2015:
    Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )

  57. Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7 3m3 minutes ago
    Patchy light snow/flurries now through 4pm. 1″ of snow SE MA…1-3″ Cape/Islands. #7news

    Does continuous light snow mean “patchy”??????

  58. Light snow in Sherborn.

    Snow and ice was cleared off our roof yesterday. Garage door opener works again, the weight was causing the door frame to catch the door/disable the motor.

    Of course they buried our gas meter under an 8′ foot slurry of snow and ice. They were back this morning digging it out.

  66. i saw a comment about snow above 32 degrees. It can actually snow when it is 39 degree’s It is mainly to do with all the other layers, Not the area that we walk in

  67. Snow has let up. I was just out. Sun was dimly visible when I went out.
    When I came back, in between low clouds from the ocean, sun was out pretty bright.
    Still snowing very lightly.

    Clearly see low clouds moving in from the ocean.

  68. Nam, gfs,Canadian and Euro all show a snow event for sunday night/Monday

    then mid week storm
    gfs and Canadian, euro and JMa rain

  69. Really beginning to look like a Big Rainorama next week mid-week.
    GFS, CMC and EURO ALL take a system through the Lakes bringing warmth
    and plenty of RAIN into our Area. Not sure we can handle that. Still a ways off,
    so perhaps it will change.

    Not sure what happened to a coastal development from previous runs.
    The Euro was a COLD run previously. I don’t know what’s going on.

    Despite other indicators, are we headed into SPRING suddenly?

    2. Wouldn’t call it spring, but a gradual ending of winter with dwindling snow chances and less cold as we enter the month of March. I mentioned last week Saturday that winter was delivered a quick left jab over the weekend from which it bounced back quickly. However, I believe Wednesday’s blow will not be a jab, but more of a right hook. Winter’s tough to knock down in New England, so it won’t be time to claim a victory for spring. But, it’s inevitable. The glorious snowbanks – they are awesome – and icy waters surrounding Boston will melt away faster than any of us can imagine right now.

      1. GFS Snow Depth after Sunday Night system, so basically this is what’s on the ground to start off March (OK a few days in)

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022612&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=120

        2 weeks later

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022612&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=384

        IF the GFS verifies, there ya go. POOF!!!

        Not saying it will, just IF, the above would be the result
        We go from nearly 3 feet on the ground on March 3rd to
        3 or 4 inches on March 14th.

  71. I’m also thinking rain for Sunday night . It’s going to be in the mid 40S on Sunday afternoon. A lot of snow has melted since Sunday..

    2. I wouldn’t say a lot has melted, though some has. I’d say some has compacted and/or evaporated, and a little has melted. Major melting will start to occur once Sunday rolls around. Not sure if we get to the mid 40s, but we will surely be in the upper 30s. I’m also not sold on snow Sunday night. In fact, I think a mixed bag with zero snow accumulation in Boston. Wednesday’s system is too far ahead to be definitive, but it looks like it will be mostly rain, if not all rain. Once again, positioning of the low and lack of a high (one will be coming in later in the week, but too late) will allow it to travel over land and likely to our west. I think that in order to beat the record we’re going to have count on a sneaky snowstorm in mid/late March to early April. I’m doubtful we’ll get one, but we’ve had them before. April 1, 1997 comes to mind, but also other storms that appeared out of nowhere, reversing a warming trend, dropped snow on us and then almost all of it disappeared pretty much overnight as another warming trend displaced the previous one.

      1. Down by longwood medical area a lot has melted and piled a lot smaller . I saw bare spots today in some areas where it was just covered and buried trees showing now.

        1. My Snow piles dropped by 1 foot yesterday. Don’t know how much is attributable to snow melt, compaction or
          sublimation. Probably a combination of all 3. 😀

  72. We did get a very small accumulation today. Didn’t measure but looks to be
    1 or 2 tenths. I wonder what Logan measurement Logan has. Did we make it
    to 102.0 inches?

  74. John, I also saw some bare grass yesterday, around tree trunks. And, there’s definitely been a lot of compacting. Didn’t notice a lot of water on the paths yesterday, which lead me to believe that there wasn’t as much melting as compacting and evaporation going on.

  75. I am sure the snow has compacted and a small amount has melted, but I look out my office window here in North Reading and there is still a boatload of snow out there. Honestly don’t see how it will be down to 3-4 inches on the ground by March 14. Seems impossible to me.

      1. As I look out my office window (home office) the snow is literally level with the bottom sill as far as I can see and into my neighbor’s yard. That is a solid four foot depth of snow.

      2. Oh yes lots of snow left just stating that snow piles, banks have gone down . Was able to look at some damaged shrubs today where as last week no chance at all at seeing them.

        1. I had a whole front yard of new shrubs planted in September, along with a new tree. Looks like the tree will survive, but don’t have much hope for the shrubs. UGH.

    2. I sure find it hard to believe that it will be down to 3-4 in a couple of weeks also. Are we just going by snow that sits as it fell and doesn’t have more show shoveled on top of it? Not that you can find that anywhere 🙂

  76. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    In a winter where the NAO has been mostly positive, its been amazing that the SE ridge has been absent.

    However, that may be largely attributable to the PNA also being positive. A ridge out west is likely to lead to a trof in the east.

    Uh oh …… Have a look at the forecast for the PNA, projected to go quite negative over the coming days.

    Trof in the west, guess what is coming in the east. A ridge and most likely the SE Ridge.

    I’m going to guess that the teleconnection forecast isn’t too far off.

    A trof is coming to the western US. There’ll be a decent ridge in the east.

    That has the makings of one very mild storm next week. That may have a surge of warmth that surprises, especially because it will have the March strength sun to quickly warm the airmass in the southeast, before it advects in here. If we’re lucky, the rain with the low will track through the eastern Great Lakes and western NY and we’ll just have to deal with a rapid snowmelt.

    1. Sure looks like that’s what’s going to happen.
      I fear we get BOTH the Warmth and the RAIN. What an ugly combination
      with this much snow on the ground.

  77. The suburbs are a completely different animal than the city. The city has a lot of “dirty” snow which has salt, sand, and other dark particles on it which helps to speed up the disappearing act of the snow. Where I live in Groveland there has been almost no melting or shrinking of snow banks similar to what you are seeing in North Reading Mel. That even goes for south facing hills which are usually the first to be affected. The sun will start to win out eventually but its going to need some help from warmer temperatures. I could see there being snow in the woods around our parts into April unless some major warmth heads our way.

  78. Interested in the talk of warm temperatures around here for Sunday and next week. WBZ has a high of 32 on Sunday, 35 Monday, 30 Tuesday and 34 Wednesday; WHDH has 34 on Sunday, 39 Monday, 36 Tuesday and 34 Wednesday; WCVB has 31 Sunday, 37 Monday, 31 Tuesday and 38 Wednesday.

    Just curious how are some here predicting mid-40’s on Sunday? Are all the TV meteorologists that far off? I’m confused.

    1. I don’t know about those days, but put me down for an early prediction of 55F to 60F either next Wednesday night or Thursday morning. (3/4 into 3/5)

      My reasoning is above. 🙂

      1. But that’s what confuses me. Are all the TV meteorologists that bad that they can’t even accurately predict the temperature for next Wednesday? There is no one even close to 45, never mind 50-60. The weather channel, which is notoriously wrong, has a high of 39 on Wednesday.

        1. I could be wrong, but the weather channel temps come from some computer, perhaps in Atlanta, GA. I don’t give TWC temp forecasts too much credibility.

          Being just a weather enthusiast, I have the ability to play a hunch and don’t have to worry about credibility amongst a huge viewing area. (I still do want to be right though 🙂 ). But, I would think that 6-7 days out from today, its probably smart to throw in a 40-45F, showing the idea of a milder Wed night/Thurs morning and then, as you get closer, you can adjust the temp to the intensity of the warm surge.

      1. Sounds about right. IF we have to endure that snow event
        regardless, I really hope it breaks the record so we can
        try to move onto SPRING. 😀

  80. Tom,

    How accurate is the PNA forecast 5-6 days out? Isn’t difficult to predict the NAO more than a couple of days?

    Thanks,
    TJ

    2. On that link I posted above, look at the 2nd graph down, which is the verification of the 7 day outlook, exactly in the timeframe we are in now.

      The thick black line is what actually the PNA was and the other lines are what was forecast.

      Its showing that, 7 days out, the projection of the PNA has been fairly accurate.

  82. Got the Logan report for today:

    …SUFFOLK COUNTY…
    1 N EAST BOSTON 0.2 100 PM 2/26 LOGAN AIRPORT
    WINTHROP 0.2 100 PM 2/26 NONE

    Puts Logan at 102.0 inches even for the season.

    Leaves 5.6 inches to tie the record. The way things are beginning to shape up,
    better break it Sunday night.

  84. Upcoming pattern morphs into a little like what we had in December… upper air pattern. This time the outcome won’t be as mild because, well, there are about 3 feet more snow on the ground now than there was back then. Get ready for some March Misery folks.

      1. Indeed it will. It’s not going to be a picnic around here until the snow melts AND then ground dries out somewhat. That’s going to take quite a while.

  85. Sunday night’s system will very likely be snow for most areas. Not big, but measurable. The “warm-up” may get us back to near or a little over the freezing mark during the day.

      1. Right now, I don’t think it will be much. Maybe the type that could cause a delayed opening at worst.

  86. Predicting one high temp for any location 7 days in advance is essentially like a dice-roll. If you can be within 6 degrees 7 days out you’re doing pretty well.

    That said, the high temp next Wed is likely to vary by at least 10 degrees across the region.

    1. cold air damming maybe? March is by far my least favorite month. Its usually raw and muddy and although it’s great to get a nice 50 or 60 degree day in there it tends to be a tease until late april/early may when we eventually goto consistently warm weather. I will absolutely lose my mind if the NAO goes negative this spring and keeps us cool and raw. Once the snow is gone, bring on the heat!

      1. The heat will likely be slow in coming, at least the Spring warm-up, because the sun has much work to do first to melt the snow, then to dry the ground, and that assumes we don’t get into a cloudy/rainy pattern mid Spring.

        There will be plenty of cold-air damming set-ups in the next several weeks. There will be weather systems that look like warm systems on the maps, and that warm air will indeed be here…..a few thousand feet above us…while the surface is refrigerated.

  87. I know it will snow again…I am under no illusion…but I have to say it will stink after seeing so much melting progress on my roof and snow piles. It’s been awesome. Having it covered again and having to roof rake will be a bummer.

    1. We’ll soon be getting events that melt rather quickly once they fall, and not followed by long-lasting deep freezes.

  88. As seen on radar, the snow which had temporarily stopped a couple hrs ago has started up again. Its very, very light snow.

  89. Boston’s all time snow record will be within 4 inches of reach by Monday, and may fall by late Tuesday night, or certainly by Sunday March 8.

  90. Decent 2-5″ snow event on the GFS for SNE for Sun night/Monday. A bit less on the 12z Euro which focuses the heavier snow over central and northern NE.

    12z Euro (and GFS) still have a few inches of front end snow with the mid week system despite it being shown now as a cutter through the lakes with a lot of rain. Thus I am still pretty confident Boston hits the record next week.

    I should note as well that the Euro ensembles are even more robust with the up front thump of snow.

  91. Regarding the discussion above on high temps, 12z Euro has Sunday highs in the 30’s for pretty much all of SNE. With the storm cutting to our west, Wednesday’s highs reach the 40’s region wide. The closest the 50’s get to us in NYC. Again, this is just the Euro solution…

  93. I just watched Harvey he now has that 40 for Monday not Sunday. Said light snow Sunday night not a big deal. Said midweek storm may be warm.

  94. Total February snowfall @ Logan = 64.8″ (final)

    No doubt that this record for the most snowiest month ever will stand for many generations to come. I believe 1717 was the last time there have been this much snow around here.

    Next is the record 107.6″ but our opportunities are dwindling…..and the warmer solution for next Wednesday won’t help.

    1. Philip. I’m curious…fascinated really. I know records have only been kept from the late 1800s. How do we know what was in 1717?

      1. “The Great Snow” consisted of four consecutive snowfalls between February 27-March 7, 1717 (2 major, 2 minor) throughout greater Boston with up to 3 feet. We know of this through colonists journals but no “official” records per se.

        1. “The Great Snow of 1717 was a series of snowstorms between February 27 and March 7, 1717 (Gregorian calendar) that blanketed the colony of New York and the New England colonies with five or more feet (1.5 or more meters) of snow, and much higher drifts. Snowfall may have occurred elsewhere, but settler population was sparse outside of New England at that time. The Great Snow is considered one of the benchmark storms in New England, often compared to the Great Blizzard of 1888 in severity.[1]”

            2. This is interesting too…

              “Some of the oldest Native Americans had said that even their ancestors never spoke of a storm of this magnitude.[5] Boston received around 40 inches (100 cm) of snow, while some places north of the city reached up to 60 inches (150 cm).[3] In Hampton, Massachusetts, the snow was so deep that people could only leave their houses from the second floor on the lee side of the house, implying actual snow depths of as much as 8 feet (2.4 m) or more.[4] Many single-story homes were buried completely, without even the chimney showing. On the larger residences, drifts reached the third-story window on the windward side.[4] Large expanses of snow were 10–15 feet (3.0–4.6 m) deep, with some significant drifts 20 feet (6.1 m) deep.[5]”

      1. Ah…still dumb though. It’s not Spring…so why have Spring on the forecast map? It got me, and I am into weather.

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