Quiet February Finish

307 Comments

3:30AM

SUMMARY…
High pressure builds in today and Saturday and brings fair and cold weather to southeastern New England. This high will slip offshore by Sunday and a cold front will approach then pass through the region at night, with a wave of low pressure developing along it. This will bring a period of snow Sunday night and early Monday with some accumulation. High pressure returns later Monday into Tuesday with dry weather, but as things move along rather swiftly, the next system will arrive Tuesday night as snow and may become a mix or rain, depending on its track, before winding down later Wednesday. Dry weather is expected to return by Thursday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -10 to 10, coldest interior valleys. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 15. High 35.
MONDAY: Early snow followed by clearing. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Snow to mix at night. Low 15. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Morning rain/mix. Afternoon rain showers. Low 35. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 35.

307 thoughts on “Quiet February Finish”

  1. The previous posts referencing the blizzards of 1717 and 1888 were fascinating – looked up both. Had never heard of either storm. My brother, who is a history professor says often says “we all have a tendency to think that history started with our being born…..”

    1. ML. I had not heard of the storm either. I am a huge fan of history from the revolutionary and civil war periods. I surprise myself to realize I never paid a lot of attention to the weather aspect.

  2. Thanks TK. Though it may be a “quiet finish” it was one heck of a record-setting month. Also I am seeing various Sunday night forecasts from light snow to a “plowable event.” Forecasts for Wed, depending on the source, are also very variable. Though I did not look at models this AM, I did see … the last time I looked … a possible snow event around March 8th or so. Time to get ready for work.

  3. Tk is there a chance that Tuesday night snow gets changed to rain. I think we will see more snow Sunday night than the midweek storm which seems to be getting warmer atleast last night.

    1. John,
      Even the mid-week event is still up in the air.

      As of now, Sunday night looks to be about 5 inches.

      Mid-Week about another 5 inches front end thump before going over to rain, but there is time for that to change. There are some “hints” that it “could” possibly end up a Colder solution. Again, there is time for that to evolve.

      Also I might add. GFS continues to advertise a very RAPID DEMISE
      to our snowpack.

      Not sure this map even makes sense as it’s gone up North as well. GONE within the next 16 days. I find that hard to believe. Thoughts?

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022706&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=384

      1. Sufficient answer and I agree.
        There is no doubt the pattern is “relaxing” but it’s not flipping into early warm mode that fast.

      3. Found a picture I took of my yard of Christmas…it was in the 50’s I think…funny to see the ground and trees in the photo.

        1. I mentioned the other day some subtle changes to the pattern but it is still an active pattern.

          OS this is the time of year that you need to be real careful taking these snow accumulation and depth maps. The accumulation maps are often over done but conversely the snow depth maps often too rapidly decay the accumulated snow cover.

          5″ could be on the high end for Sunday / Monday.

          1. I’m going to check on the Sunday system when I have time but 5 inches Sunday? That’s the highest I’ve heard . I think a couple of inches at best and we need to see the timing of the system. Mondays projected high will be 40 but I believe that snow is gone early last I heard. Regarding
            Wednesday I was hearing this morning by Eliot from bz saying looking like rain midweek.

  4. Sad sad day for channel 7 and anyone who watches boston news. Kayna Whitworth is leaving for the west coast. She will be greatly missed. So damn HOT!!!!!! New will not be the same.

  6. Regarding the info I posted on the Great Snows of 1717, I actually got it from an old weather book I bought years ago. It is amazing how wikepedia has replaced books and encyclopedias like the light bulb replaced candles, lol. 😀

    And for those who don’t know what an encyclopedia was…look it up in wikipedia. 😀

    I would be curious if encyclopedias can still be purchased these days. 😉

    1. Not sure either, but…
      If anyone’s looking, I have several sets in my attic for the taking! Not sure on publications dates, but think around the early 80’s.

      1. My son just bought his first house!!! Sellers cleared it out, but left behind a 2 sets of encyclopedias. I told him that’s because they couldn’t sell or donate – no wants them – how sad is that! He’s happy with the find – holding on to them 🙂 Smart son – Proud Mom:)

        1. That is pretty cool. My parents tossed all of ours and one set was original. We also had original sets of the Book of Knowledge which I loved to read through as a child.

  8. I’m curious to see what high temps happen today if we have a good deal of sunshine.

    I think the concensus last night was a high of 25F at Logan, but I got the idea that the sky cover was supposed to feature at least some clouds from time to time.

    So far, in Marshfield anyway, its been a mostly sunny morning.

  9. 17.8 and another picture perfect, pure blue sky. My sister in law is in the southern part of Atlanta and had limited freezing rain and no snow. She said northern suburbs may have had 1-3 but north GA was in the 6 inch range. With everything cancelled, the mess they had last year (was it last year?) was avoided.

      1. If you look at some model average precip (which don’t vary much) it is a uniform 0.3 QPF to Boston, Worcester, Springfield, & BDL. Providence / Taunton south it creeps from 0.4 to 0.5 but some mix will work on a line some where south of those cities to the south coast and cape . I am pretty comfortable with a going forecast of a general 2-4″ of snowfall region wide. Think most areas will end up above the low end, but probably not many areas see above top end with the exception of colder inland areas South and West of Hartford, CT. where there could be some local 5-6″ amounts.

        Anyway, I am off to London tomorrow night. Gone for most next week.

        All snow Monday with a generally less than 5″ accumulation and front end snow to mix to rain on Wednesday.

  11. Couple of odds and ends:

    1. The summit of Mt. Washington will likely have the coldest average temperature (~-4.5F) ever recorded for the month of February. Also, when Kate Matrasova perished 12 days ago on one of the ridge trails between Mt. Adams and Mt. Jefferson (a trail I know very well), the summit of Mt. Washington was the second coldest place on earth. The coldest was the station at the South Pole. Windchill on or near the summit was -90F. No-one can survive that.

    2. My favorite female meteorologist was Mish Michaels. I thought she was absolutely beautiful. She seemed intelligent, too. I don’t know how good her weather skills were. I did get a chance to meet her at a weather event at the Museum of Science about 14 years ago (?). I was too nervous to really talk to her. It felt like I was back in 7th grade.

    3. I’ve said here before but worth repeating that Mish is not only excellent but she loved her audience. Mish is an equestrian. Back when daughter had horses, the concern in changing whether was whether to blanket, how much to blanket, etc. It is a concern because it can cause health problems for the horses. We asked Mish if she could somehow indicate her thoughts. She listened and Mish would often report in a way we knew exactly what to do.

        1. Just reporting the model output John.

          The 12Z GFS is not available yet. The 6Z had it starting
          approximately the same time frame.

          I’ll be busy until after lunch. If someone doesn’t
          post the approximate GFS start time when available, I’ll post it sometime after lunch.

  14. Last tidbit for the day:

    I’ve noticed tourists (mostly from Europe and China) taking pictures of the snow, snowbanks, cars buried in snow, Charles frozen over. They’ve been doing this for a month. Even though we’ve lost some snow-pack, it’s still mighty impressive for outsiders, many of whom have never seen so much snow, especially in an urban setting. I spoke to a German tourist from Berlin who said yesterday that he had never seen so much snow in a major city before. He asked whether we had gotten all the snow in the past 2 weeks. I said no. We’ve had a very sizable snow-pack since late January when we got our first storms. That really surprised him. He said “no melting …” I told him yes we’ve had some melting, but very little and February it’s barely gotten above freezing. He looked shocked when I told him that. Quite frankly, that statistic alone (only 2 days above freezing the entire month of February) is truly incredible.

    We now take this for granted, but this is a special moment. We shouldn’t compare ourselves to Prince Edward Island or New Brunswick – places with no major urban centers. No, we’re now with the big boys – Moscow, Montreal, St. Petersburg. And this year we’ve beaten all three.

    2. Joshua, great comments and so important to look at this past month as something that is special. We were talking to folks yesterday who were at Babson for a meeting held by a local company. They were from all over the world. They made the very same observations.

      I was thinking this morning about the record for #1 and it dawned on me that it is no more than a number or a single statistic. We have seen many records fall and that is exciting. But most of all we are seeing something that we may never see again; or if we do, it would be the start of a new page in the life of earth. Either way…..amazing doesn’t begin to describe.

        1. JJ gets the jackpot this time around.

          Probably NOT enough to put Boston over the top
          for the Season Snowfall record. Boston would need
          5.6 inches to tie.

          On that map, Boston comes in at about 4.5-5 inches.
          Could the record fall with this? Sure.
          Likely to fall? No.

          There is still 48+ hours till event. Would NOT take
          much of a change to get Boston over the top.

          In the past the NAM has really over cooked snow amounts. It has not been all that bad this year.
          And it’s not predicting 30 inches, so any error
          would be much smaller.

          A general 3-6 inches is a good prediction imho.

          1. I think that’s a pretty fair estimation with this one. I’m very curious to see how things pan out after this though.

            1. The evolution of the mid-week event
              will be very telling. It has been so back and forth.

              I have a sneaky feeling that the Colder
              solution will win out in the end.

              I have seen reports that the entire month of March will be Below Average
              in temperature. That does NOT bode well for keeping the Snow away.

              We shall see.

              It’s always a battle this time of year and unfortunately the COLD has a huge ally this year.(The deep snow pack)

  16. The 6z GFS was a bit more robust this morning with the snow totals for sunday night/Monday. Not too far off from the NAM:
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022706&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

    0z Euro similar but a bit less. 3-5″ looks like a good first call with spot 6″ amounts in northern CT and west/central MA.

    GFS and Euro also both have a decent front end thump of 3-4″ Tues night before the changeover to rain. This is the GFS for the midweek storm.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022706&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=156

    Verbatim on this – Boston breaks the record on Wednesday. Will see what the rest of the 12z runs have to say.

  18. I am impressed by how cold it is staying today with full sunshine, that is nearly 40 degrees or a little less than half way btwn the horizon and due overhead.

    That got me looking back. I think I have this correct …. It hasn’t touched 40F in Boston since January 19th !!!!! It wont today and I don’t think so tomorrow, which would be 40 straight days !!!!!!!! which is about 1/9th or about a 11% consecutive part of a year !!!!!!!!!!!

  22. John, the 12z GFS delays the start of the snow until the 10PM-12AM range Sun night, it ramps up overnight and tapers off by midday Monday. Euro starts and ends it a few hours earlier.

        1. The timing is not good on this for Monday AM impacts. I have a feeling there will be quite a few delays and cancellations.

              1. This is true, and I understand there are many factors that go into this, but IMO there is no excuse. We haven’t had a major storm in 2 weeks and that should have been ample time for crews to get out there and clear snow and prepare for future storms to make it safer for kids. I just think many municipalities have given up and are using the snow as an excuse at this point. I would think we have evolved enough to be able to handle this.

                1. I totally agree. I do cute Plymouth a little slack only because it is such a large area to cover. They always make a decision for the entire district so even though the snow removal is nearly complete in North Plymouth, if there are issues in South Plymouth then they still delay or cancel all.

                2. Ace I would second Sue’s comments. Framingham is huge and there are many areas that kids walk through that have businesses. The businesses plow their areas and build piles of snow that block the sidewalks where the kids walk. The kids have to walk in the street to go around those areas unless they are cleared.

                  Also, a lot of the area in north Framingham is in more rural (if you can believe it) sections where roads are narrow, there are no sidewalks and there is literally no place to plow the snow. It makes what are streets that are difficult for a bus to navigate in the best conditions, risky.

  23. Little change on the 12z GFS for the midweek system. Track over Detroit with snow to start, quickly changing to mix/rain.

    Extended long range keeps it cool the week of the 8th with a couple chances for snow from clipper systems early to mid week.

  25. By the way TK….what is it that your have been alluding to when you mention March 8th? I have seen a couple of comments regarding that date.

    1. There is a chance for a clipper system around that date and potentially another one around 3/11 but neither look like major storms at this point. Not sure if TK is seeing something else.

  26. Hi all, new to the blog. I’ve been reading for years on both here and WBZ prior. I know most of you guys and look forward to chatting with you. I’m not a met but would enjoy giving updates of what is going on in Northeast MA. I’ve been nuts about weather since the early 80’s. TK, thanks for letting me participate! I’ll start by saying top 10 day for late winter! 100% sunshine and low 20’s..Perfect! Been stacking wood by the garage for whats to come next week!

  27. I agree Ace with what you said about 4″ not being enough to cancel schools, but I can tell you here in CT that if 4 or 5″ are forecasted and it is snowing moderately around 7AM, there will be widespread cancellations and delays. It is not so much about the amount of snow as it is the bad timing.

        1. I was somewhat hesitant to write that because I’m not knowledgeable on coyote’s, but, I promise I was thinking it might be, so I’m glad you said so !!

          1. Tweet from Coast Guard said it was a coyote
            so I didn’t doubt that until your post. upon further review, I still think it is a coyote having seen several not more than 1/2 mile from my house in JP.

            Coyote images

            http://www.ci.chanhassen.mn.us/images/pages/N491/coyote11.jpg

            https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSrxcr3Ue9_Bh77njuf4_S8MVOXlg_qayr7VlRz1IbfioZlx2qtUA

            https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR-zs34FUdEujQrzVfmQu3tXWHY7uY331cKafLSsIVdOn7x6Qrd

            https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSJ9OOi0PJFypsqu_2hbmvWdA4Ymjxy1F18sfpO9DxXKe6BDwao-g

            Those are all different, but I post to give a range of what they look like, primarily in Winter.

  30. 12z Euro stays the course with a general 3 or 4″ on Monday and a rainorama on Wednesday. However, it is stalling the trailing cold front behind the storm, which has a quite a bit of precipitation left with it and producing quite a bit of backside snow as the front slides off shore. Interesting solution in that we would have a moderate slug of snow to end the storm after an extended period of rain.

    Run total snowmap:
    http://i.imgur.com/qTHXCNU.jpg

    GFS depicts this too but the front and most of its precip stays off shore and the cold air floods in after the bulk of the precip is gone.

  31. GFS is projecting + 6C to +9C at 850mb for a short time during the mid week storm and EURO at 120 hours, I think it is, is at +5C, with +10C just to our southwest. That’s quite mild for 850 mb !

    996mb low, so, there should be some time where the SW wind makes its way into eastern Mass. I can see the CT Valley having a shallow inversion, staying cold.

    It still appears to me that 50F+ is within reach for a 6 hr period sometime later Wednesday or Wednesday night before it cools off Thursday.

    I know that there’s deep snowcover over us and some to our south and west. But, its some to our south and west and that wont be much to overcome. If its in the 60s from southern PA south and westward Wednesday, even some “chilling”of that kind of warmth advecting in here could get us briefly quite mild.

    1. No Higher than the 40s, imho. But HOW many times have I been WRONG
      before. It will be interesting to see. I Still think, the solutions will trend colder.
      We shall see.

      1. The Warmth, primarily shoots over the top of us. 😀

        On the other hand, if we get a Strong SW wind, well then,
        that’s a horse of a different color. BUT, I’m wondering if we don’t
        get some sort of occlusion, keeping the SW wind out and forcing
        the Warmth above us. It will be most interesting to see
        how it plays out.

        1. All definitely possible and will be interesting to watch.

          If, in 3 days, this low ends up being 1,004 or 1,005 mb, then, as last time, it will definitely be a colder solution.

  33. Well, Boston’s snow blitz is drawing media attention overseas, and specifically with the preeminent global broadcaster – BBC. Most of the stories included in this article will be familiar to you. But, it’s worth mentioning that the BBC is highlighting this piece on their website.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-31544560

  34. Hi all!

    Diamond, your first comment has been approved. Welcome to the blog!

    If anybody would like to see Diamond’s first comment, he posted it at 1:05PM today. Scroll back a bit. 🙂

  35. So it was inevitable. Dad had a highly contagious intestinal virus for about 36 hours. My mom got a virus that got her entire digestive system starting 2 days ago and finally easing today. I have been nailed with one of these, though it seems to have skipped my stomach and gone right for the gut, not to get too graphic. Along with this comes chills and fever, so I am just dropping mom off and picking her up today from the rehab, in case it’s a different bug from the one my dad had. Don’t need to risk bringing that bug into that building. Mom is not likely contagious anymore. Oh well. 😛 At least these don’t last long…

    Checking out the latest info and will post some thoughts soon. 🙂

    3. After your descriptio, When you said “Dropping”, I immediately thought you
      were having an urgent “GUT” reaction. 😀 😀

      But seriously, hope you and your folks feel better in a hurry!

    1. Notice from Boston South that is actually LESS snow with MORE qpf.
      Either it wants to give us some sort of mix OR the snow is so wet the
      ratio is low, like 7 or 8:1 or lower even. I find that very weird.

      Thoughts?

      1. Borderline boundary layer in coastal SE Mass and Cape.

        It is a low thats cutting right along the south coast from the west, so winds initially probably from the due east, even E-SE. Though light, that will probably have Marshfield points south and east around 30-34F.

    1. I can go over the top sometimes, that’s for sure, most especially with
      Snow Storms. T-storms can do it sometimes as well. 😀

      Thanks

  44. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago
    One more week — survive early March #polarvortex onslaught & maybe spring-like warmth arrives — in 10-days or so.

  45. I like this regarding the weather. And it appears the January 24 to March 8 window is going to be pretty much what it was. NOT to say we can’t get some bouts of cold or even some late snow events, but the general idea is more consistent “milder”, i.e., near to below average temperatures by the middle of next month.

    Snow: 3-6 inches most areas Sunday night and early Monday, and in the neighborhood of up to a few inches before a changeover Tuesday night / Wednesday. That should put Boston right at or over the top on the record. If they don’t make it, we have to watch for a sneaky system that the models do not show right now for March 6, and another one on March 8 with one (maybe final) blast of Arctic air.

    2. Ugh….Monday is my work at home day. The day where I actually have peace and quiet in my house and no coworkers to invade my cube every 15 minutes. Why does it always have to snow on Mondays????? 🙂

      1. Many of New England’s biggest snowstorms have taken place on Mondays, or at least partly on a Monday.

          1. Ha! I am convinced kids are born with a manual and think it is time to add snowstorms arriving on moms work at home days to the list of instructions in that manual.

  49. Extending a warm welcome, Diamond, to our slightly crazy family. I am picturing a diamond on the rough….but you said you have been reading for a while so know what you are getting into.

  50. Sunday night looks like a 4-5 inch blanket across SNE. Midweek seems at least Northeast MA through Gardner (RT 2) general snow to ice. SW and south turn to rainfall. I think cold air is just to strong. Seams when Southwest wind during a storm Northeast MA and Southeast NH Hang on to cold air damming for a longer duration. Thoughts?

    1. The snow is going to keep it colder longer. I do feel that the milder air will win out enough to turn most areas to rain for a time but those areas you mention may have difficulty going over freezing.

      1. Unless the wind is South/South east of course. That will warm enough up here to change to rain and raise the DP to eat snow.

  51. Vicki, I know and it’s cool and thanks for the welcome. I wish I’d join a while ago. Hope all is well with the family and Mac is doing well.

  52. Monday, Sunday, Saturday, Friday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Wednesday, about in that order, are the big storm frequency days, based mainly on memory of what I have read from things before I was born and things I have observed since.

    1978 Feb 6-7: Monday-Tuesday.
    2015 biggies: Tuesday, Monday, Monday, Sunday.
    Blizzard of 1888: Monday.
    Presidents Day Storm: Monday.
    April Fools Blizzard: Monday (rain), Tuesday (snow).
    December 23 1997 surprise storm: Tuesday.
    March 29 1984 12 inches in 6 hours with cloud to ground lightning strikes: Thursday.
    Superstorm March 1993: Saturday.
    April 6 1982 Blizzard: Tuesday.
    The “Forgotten Blizzard” of January 20 1978 (Boston gets 21 inches in 12 hours): Friday.
    2013 Blizzard: Friday-Saturday.
    December 5-6 1981 surprise back-in storm in which 12-18 inches fell with NW winds: Saturday-Sunday.
    December 11-12 1992 2+ inches of rain to nearly 20 inches of snow (about 4 inches melted): Friday-Saturday.
    February 1983 brick-wall, high-splitter storm: Friday night-early Saturday.

    That’s just a partial list.

    Any Wednesdays on that list? Hmmm.

  53. Harvey saying boston is right on the line of 3-6. 2-4 south but saying if the cold air can hang on that 3-6 may be pushed to the south shore. Though I was going to get a full two day weekend first in 6 weeks but I guess not damn. Harvey has it in fairly early to around dinner time . I give up and I’m crying uncle . Welcome diamond.

    1. Thanks for the welcome South. I know you work very hard and you are a “first responder” in all you do keeping the hospital open. It doesn’t go unnoticed with all of the readers out there.

      1. Wow you are on a roll, you can stay lol. Thank you for the kind words. This is a great blog and we all respect each other. Enjoy the blog.

    1. Just a couple of days from what I hear. Seriously the thought process in this country when it comes to school escapes me. No way they can expect kids to all be there.

      2. i agree if it goes to far outside of the time frame possible, they need to just let them not have to make them up, heck its not like the the kids are going to learn anything anyway those days expecially middle and elementery schoolers, But also high school since many teacher get everything done when its suppose to anyway and just let the kids watch movies the last week. Wasted time to be honest

        2. As a school committee member in North Reading, I can tell you that it is highly unlikely that the state will waive the 180-day requirement for schools. I believe they have done it once in the last 20-30 years or so. In our town, we are already talking about potential school on Saturday if we have more snow days. Right now the last day of school in our town is 6/29, and the teachers’ contract says they cannot work after June 30.

          1. I am sure you are correct. We have a serious problem with thinking outside of the box. Waiving days isn’t even on the table.

            1. Adding that I do not remember the state waiving the 180 days. I could have forgotten :). My kids went until June 27 one year and did absolutely nothing the last week. Otherwise it hasn’t been later than when I was a kid. I graduated junior high June 18 (I remember date because it is my birthday) and that was about a week before school got out.

  56. Gold rush is on. Love this show. Talk about a hard living! Still thinking of snow to ice event northeast MA into all of NH for midweek. Just on the basis of extreme snow depth in New England and Ohio Valley. Enjoyed the reads of 1717. Love history and how ancestors survived in tough conditions, Just amazing!

  57. diamond, Welcome to the woodshill family.

    Now for the sunday night storm. Its exactly that. I honestly think precip starts when it gets dark and it gets out of here just before the sun rises. It will remain all snow but possibly the cape/south shore. moderate snowfall, nothing big
    second storm i think the Merrimack valley and areas north of rt2 does not see a pure change over to rain. i believe if anything it will change to freezing rain before the precip ends. early Wednesday afternoon areas south of the pike and areas east of i95 will probably see rain com day break wednesday

  59. Sunday’s storm intrigues me. Timing is right: nighttime in early March, much better than daytime for accumulating snow. I’ve not been bullish enough on snow this winter, clearly! I had Boston pegged for what, 19 inches all winter when we gave our predictions in October. How silly of me! But now that we’re at a point when a major record can be broken, I’d like it to be done sooner rather than later, because later might not happen as snow chances may be few and far between after Sunday.

    1. I’m with you, Josh! After what everyone has endured in the past four weeks, a new season total isn’t too much to ask for 🙂 Break that damn record!

    1. It is already light at 6:00. Sort of light. I when did we used to spring forward? Second week April? Darned if I remember

  62. Norwood is 0F.

    Taunton and Plymouth are 4F.

    And the heat island that is Logan that took in all that sunshine today is 23F.

  63. 6 in North Reading. I think we go below zero again tonight. Wonder if we will here the sonic boom cracking noises in the house again tonight?

    1. Quite possible…
      HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO…WHILE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

  65. It will be interesting as to what temps and our landscapes will look like on Friday March 20. Personally, I would love to see snowdrops and crocuses popping up in my yard by then. 🙂

  66. Mt. Washington is 0F, but that is 9F milder than at this time yesterday morning.

    A shot at 32F in spots today, down here, where we all live ???

  67. Another sunny day today.

    At logan ………. 11 hrs, 11 minutes. ……….. 39.7 degrees at max elevation at solar noon.

    Equivalent to same sun on October 13th or around Columbus Day weekend.

  68. We seem to be in a somewhat stable 4 to 7 day model projection run currently.

    Seems that the Sunday night event has been consistent for a few days and there doesnt seem like there’s many big changes to what we have been seeing on the 00z model runs.

    Next Wednesday’s event seems also to be projected somewhat consistently the last 48 hrs. It is no longer switching back and forth from a cold to a mild to a cold solution, etc.

      1. Snow to start, change to rain. Quick at coast, a bit slower much further inland.

        Way inland, probably at some point to get a few to many dgrees above freezing well into the event.

        Extreme SE Mass and the Cape, I think, will warm sector and get above 50F.

        I think its Boston, Merrimack Valley, the 128 to 495 area thats kind of the wild card as to whether they hit 42F or 52F for about a 6 hr period sometime later Wednesday or Wednesday night.

  69. 406 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015
    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
    LATE SUNDAY NIGHT…

  70. Thanks, TK. Hope you are feeling better.

    It is 4 degrees in Sudbury now. Sun is up and bright – even with our shades closed, sun has moved in a direction where there is some sunlight coming through. I want to open shades and let the sun in but it is way too cold. Come on, Spring!

  71. Winter Storm watches out. Looks to start mid to late afternoon tomorrow and be done by daybreak Monday before the commute. Accumulation 4-7″

  72. TV met snow maps are all over the place. This morning I saw the 3-6″, 2-4″, and 1-2″ lines vary by 50 miles. One station put up a snow map and the met then declared it as all wrong.

  74. Looking ahead into March I think our attention will turn towards flooding concerns.

    I know this is not accurate, but the Accuweather 904 day outlook looks good for gradual melting during the month of March.

    http://imgur.com/KBHF2hx

    Lets hope the melting is gradually and spread out over time.

  75. Last day of February!!!
    It looks like were going to have the coldest month ever here in CT. As I said the other day winter was about a month late getting here but once it did it has not loosen its grip. I think were going to see more winter weather alerts posted for SNE later today.

  76. For the first 27 days of February, here is a summary of LOW temps at Logan …..

    Except for Feb. 22nd (a low of 28F, every night has had a low under 20F)

    Here are the other 26 days …..

    Low temps : 15F – 19F : 5 times

    Low temps 10F – 14F : 10 times

    Low temps 5F – 9F : 5 times

    Low temps : 0F – 4F : 4 times

    Low temps : -5F to -1F : 2 times

  79. I think the NWS is a little too bullish on snow totals for this next system. I’m thinking a widespread 3-5″. Generally advisory level snows. Ratios should be only around 10:1, and QPF won’t be all that impressive. It’s still a little ways off though so there’s time for fine tuning. Unfortunately, looks like a raw, windy rainstorm for midweek. Will start as mix/snow (may get Boston over the record), but this one won’t trend much colder. Snow on the ground can only do so much when you have a pretty strong low passing so far west.

  80. If you love snow don’t want to see the low pass to the west. But before we get there I think its a general 3-6 inches for SNE.
    Boston will not break the record with this round of snow but will be very close.

  82. I know The Weather Channel is probably the least accurate source in terms of forecasts, but how in the world can they be showing nothing in terms of snow for Sunday night? Their forecast calls for cloudy skies. I don’t get it.

  83. Good morning!! Last spring meeting this morning before we head to Jamacia at 6am tomorrow, be back on Thursday. Looks like we have a light snow event Sunday 2-4 inches. Judging by models we’ve seen the coldest and snowiest and now we can see the end of the tunnel. Looking like a decent size rain event wed while temps are well into the 40’s.

    It’s amazing that 2 weeks ago we had 31.3 inches of snow depth and currently we have 17.7, not many days above freezing yet compaction and melting has melted a lot. We will be starting the spring Lawncare season in the Wareham to Warwick to E.Greenwich rhode island areas March 9th like every year if we need to push it to March 16th, not a big deal. Hope everyone had a good day!! And think spring 🙂

      1. He’s down in Attleboro under the famous Charlie Hole.
        Charlie Hole = area with little or no precipitation while the
        rest of the region is pummeled.         😀

      2. I can confirm around that on the ground at least at my moms house in Attleboro. I measured 16″ average when I was there last night. It was def more though before loss to compaction. That area in general has gotten significantly less snow than the immediate Boston area and north and south shores. Providence for example (15 or so miles from Attleboro) has only received 50 something inches.

  84. Hmmm

    For mid-week Euro holds onto snow for awhile, then succumbs to warmth with rain, but
    then goes back to a period of SNOW again with moderate accumulation.

    Anyone have the snow maps for that. I am curious for sure.

    If Boston doesn’t break the record tomorrow night (not likely, but possible), sure
    will come Wednesday. Then can we have SPRING PLEASE. 😀

  85. I park my car under a maple tree and to my surprise sap on the windshield. The ground is frozen down to at least two feet I did not expect to see the sap running now maybe a couple of weeks from now.

  87. Is the NAM ill this morning? 9:43 and not a single frame available yet?
    What’s up with that? Something is wrong.

  88. From Taunton NWS:

    WITH PRETTY GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW
    GROWTH REGION…SNOWFALL RATIOS MAY BE BETTER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIOS.

  91. Newest winter storms – Sparta and Thor. Ok.

    I guess it’s possible – have seen it rain with lots of snow on ground; but with the way this winter has been going – so cold and so much snow – concerned there will be at some ice in the forecast next week in some or many places.

    1. Yes.

      Must be a fairly wet snow because the system is slowly strengthening as it moves through.

      The projected radar looks decent.

      It may be 5 inches thats worth .5 melted.

      Thats worrisome considering what has happened again this morning at the skating rink.

      1. NWS thinks 10:1 would be the minimum. They expect ratio
        to be above 10 but did not elaborate.

        Ratio can be up there even if surface temps are not frigid.

        Snow will probably remain pretty dry up towards Boston.
        Down your way, likely a much wetter variety. 😀

  93. 12Z GFS total QPF. LESS than NAM

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150228+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    About .3 to .4 for Boston.

    Accounts for lower end of range, thus the 3-6 inch range. Funny how that works. 😀

    My feeling is the GFS is underdone a bit. We shall see.

    Boston needs 5.6 inches and that is the higher end of range.

    Close, but probably no cigar.

  94. I can see the impact of the sun on my camper’s roof.

    I havent safely, in my mind, been able to get myself high enough to get the snow in the center of the camper’s roof moved.

    But btwn yesterday and this morning, I can see the whole pile melting from underneath. The inside of the camper must be warming up from the sun and heating the inner ceiling enough to start a melt.

    Its like I can see about a cm or 2 worth of space btwn the snow and the top of the camper.

    I wonder if I try to push the snow off, if it will just slide right off ??? I mostly have no windows to worry about on 2/3rds of one side of the camper. I’d push in that direction.

    1. Not being there, hard to tell, but I’m guessing that with the mid-afternoon
      solar radiation pounding down upon it, it would slide right off.

      1. I think I might give it a try. 🙂

        May wait another hour or two and let the sun continue to pound away.

        I have found yesterday and today to be two of the nicest weather days this winter. Not too windy and full sunshine ! Bright with all the snow.

        1. I agree. 1:30 or 2PM.

          I’ll bet it slides off.

          Could you please let us know. I for one would be most
          curious.

          Thanks and good luck.

          1. Will do. 🙂

            When I try, I’m going to give it a gentle push.

            If it doesnt move, I’m not going to force it because I dont want to puncture the roof at all.

            If I do, my wife will not be a happy camper. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. That “should” bring Boston as high a total as pretty much any place else.
      The question is: Does that total exceed 5.6 inches? Again, possible, BUT not
      probable. 😀

      1. Excellent point as we are getting to that time of year.

        I have never seen such a solid and consistent snow forecast.
        3-6 inches is such a fit it’s amazing. All guidance points to that.

        Watch ole Mother Nature pull a fast one on us. 😀

        1. Yes, I wouldnt be surprised if we went back to overacheiving.

          Not overacheiving to 18″, as we’ve seen before this winter.

          But, maybe spot 8, 9 maybe a 10″ amount.

          The reason ….. All the models show this thing gaining strength slowly as it passes over and by us, so, I wouldnt be surprised if this thing cranks out .6,maybe .7 melted, as opposed to .4 or .5 melted

              1. The last 2 weeks has spread the wealth on the cold and snow well into the south.

                No one, except for the Gulf coast has escaped.

                I dont know is if it was real, but I think I saw a facebook post a week ago, with a photo of a welcome to Florida sign and there was a dusting of snow in the picture.

  96. Up to 25 here. Was 15 when I got up, but got up late as we were viewing
    “Gone with the Wind” last night. I got up early for work yesterday, so I gave up
    at 1AM while wife continued to watch. Never saw that whole movie. They did a nice job with that and I was astonished with the quality of the color in that movie, which was
    produced in 1939 and released early in 1940! AMAZING!

      1. Wow ……. Well, that wouldnt support the moderation I think thats briefly coming during next week’s event. 🙂 🙂

        1. I had to be careful to make sure the 48 hour totals didn’t include the back end of Sunday night/Monday AM.
          I think I was successful.

    2. Interesting with its little snow hole in northern Worcester county. Must be something small scale it thinks will happen ?

  99. That Tuesday/Wednesday system will bring a warm-up of 6-9 hours.
    That’s it. And how Warm will it get? Upper 30s-low 40s OR 50s?

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022812&time=INSTANT&var=TMAXF&hour=096

    According to 12Z GFS, 40 Degree line NEVER makes it to Boston, remaining
    “just” to the South and East for that same 6-9 hour period.

    So there will be some melting for sure, but nothing drastic. Certainly NOT a big
    flood threat, UNLESS those numbers change.

    2. I have another theory 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I could see the mildness struggling to approach from the south during the first 1/3 to 2/3rds of the system.

      Perhaps the true mildness comes in from the west and northwest for a few hrs as the storm is passing through the St. lawrence river valley and the wind turns west, northwest behind the cold front passage.

      On Wednesday, mild air should have an easier time surging up through western NY State, maybe even as far east as Burlington, VT, right up the Champlain Valley.

      We will be surrounded by mildness. But, maybe the extreme south coast mildness never makes it.

      But, as the cold front comes through, mixes the airmass and the 45-50F mildness in NY State to our west gets mixed in on a w-nw wind, perhaps then temps would climb into the 40s for a while before the cold air advection takes over and significantly drops the temps.

  101. Wxrisk first guess map- 4-8 straddling bean townhttps://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/825673720813221/?type=1

  103. Seems reasonable….Tom pointed out the potential for this to strengthen just enough to pump out enough for 6-8 in spots.

  104. Chris from 7 thinks Boston receives 4 inches from Sundays storm maybe more down my way Plymouth county and maybe a couple inches front end for the midweek system .

  105. My car is still totally buried with the exception of around the drivers door where I can just open it enough to reach in and start and a tiny section of the left rear by the tail light. It gets solid sun from 11:00 am until sunset

    Fun part is son in law has a recliner chair in the bed of his truck to take to the dump. It reminds me of granny sitting in Jeds truck. With a car buried and a chair in a truck bed we now officially qualify as hillbillies……and this ain’t Beverly Hills. 🙂

  107. Tom, I think your call for Wednesday is accurate. I see temperatures easily rising into the 40s in Boston, with 50s a possibility in and around the city and pretty much a certainty to our south. Perhaps not while it rains, but shortly thereafter. Don’t think there’s much front-end snow Tuesday night, or back-end accumulating snow early Thursday morning. Maybe an inch or so in Boston. That inch or so could, however, break the record. We’ll see. Melting will be fast and furious for a 24-30 hour period.

  108. mid week storm, areas south of the pike could see low 40s but areas north of the pike stays in the 30s. snow/sleet and freezing rain north of the pike and away from the coast. areas south of the pike snow/mix to rain

    today feels warm to me, I was just wearing my sweatshirt and i felt fine, i even pulled the sleeves up 🙂

  110. Do I see BELOW ZERO readings for Next Friday AM on the EURO?

    I think I do. That’s pretty cold for March.

  111. Just quickly looking at the alert map north of the pike winter weather advisories.
    Pike South still under a winter storm watch. I think a lot of these watches will be downgraded to advisories.

    1. You may be correct JJ. I’m not sure whats going to happen. I think the Cape is now under an advisory, maybe even a WSW and I don’t think that was the case earlier, so, I’m guessing some changes may be coming to their snow projection map.

  112. Been out and about ….

    The street plow piles …. the ones that are facing southward or into the sun have some cool looking formations to them. The air is cold, so they are not melting crazy fast. But, with enough darker sand in snow, there is some melting. The melting is not a flat pushback, but these neat crevices into the snow. Then, when the sun moves and that area gets into the shade, you get some small icicles from the melt water instantly freezing in place.

    Meanwhile, the snow in the yards that is not dirty and lies flat hasn’t melted a bit. Its still mind-boggling deep.

  113. They kept the watch up where it was with the latest update around 3:30.
    Upton, NY put a watch up for New Haven Middlesex and New London counties in CT.
    To me were in that area close to close to meeting warning criteria but not enough confidence to upgrade to a warning.

  114. Little or no melting or compacting here. We have a reindeer middle of front lawn and have been able to see about 4 inches of its antlers for several days. No change today. South facing

  117. Snow is for sure compacting more so in the city. As Tom said earlier a ton of snow down this way but things sure are shrinking but I believe with all of it on the ground here it will be awhile.

  118. My youngest has a weather science project on hail. Any good website recommendations for facts, etc. on the topic?

    1. Well, weatherwiz, I like weatherwizkids.com actually (seems appropriate, under the circumstances); the woman who manages it is a meteorologist. I don’t know what she has specifically on hail. I also like treehouse weather (http://urbanext.illinois.edu/treehouse/index.cfm) They actually do have a section on rain, hail, etc. I’m a special ed teacher at the elementary school level but I sometimes do a science club; these are the sites that I’ve used.

  119. Tough call for the NWS for tomorrow night. Do they take down the watch and put in an advisory or do they upgrade to a warning? Latest guidance suggests the possibility of 6″ in spots but question is whether its widespread enough to warrant warning level snows. It’s more likely most locations come in under 6″

    1. Well I believe Boston was on the 3-6 correct but heard some mets today saying they thought more like 4.

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