8:16PM
SUMMARY…
High pressure overhead with clear sky, calm wind, and deep snowcover tonight – perfect radiational cooling. There will be some low temperatures well below zero, but most areas will be above, just very cold. This low launching pad for Sunday means it struggles back to the 20s as clouds increase ahead of the next storm system, which will occur Sunday night in the form of snow for all areas except for the possibility of some mixed precipitation over the outer part of Cape Cod and over the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. It looks like this system will drop a general 3 to 6 inches of snow across most areas, but there may be a little less than 3 inches in portions of north central MA and southern NH due to less overall precipitation, and less than 3 inches in areas where mixing occurs. There may also be a few areas that receive over 6 inches not far inland from the South Coast in south central RI and southeastern MA. Once this system exits early Monday, that day will turn out breezy, chilly, and drier with sun returning. Another cold night Monday night as high pressure moves overhead, but not as cold as tonight. Tuesday, sun will be followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches, but this one is destined to take a track northwest of New England, putting this region on the “mild” side. Remember that a deep snowcover in place will make it difficult for many areas to warm up, so freezing rain will be a possibility for some areas, along with rain where it warms sufficiently, after all areas start as snow. It is entirely possible that Boston breaks its all-time seasonal snowfall record of 107.6 inches set in 1995-1996 after the next 2 storms. After the midweek storm the confidence is a little lower late in the week as there will be some lingering moisture to the southeast and a few more disturbances in the northern jet stream, so timing and possible interaction are difficult to determine this far in advance. Will make an attempt to do this with a little more confidence on the next update.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from -15 interior valleys to +10 Cape Cod. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 20s. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow. See above for accumulations. Temperatures steady in the 20s but may rise to 30-35 Outer Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH shifting to N then NE overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Snow to mix at night. Lows 15-20. Highs 30-35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with rain but possible ice inland. Mostly cloudy afternoon with rain showers. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40 late day inland, 40s coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or mix Cape Cod. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 30-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 20-25. Highs 35-40.
Hey hey! I’m first!
So I see. π
Hey weatherwiz, I posted this on the other blog, but in case you don’t see it: I like weatherwizkids.com actually (seems appropriate, under the circumstances); the woman who manages it is a meteorologist. I donβt know what she has specifically on hail. I also like treehouse weather (http://urbanext.illinois.edu/treehouse/index.cfm) They actually do have a section on rain, hail, etc. Iβm a special ed teacher at the elementary school level but I sometimes do a science club; these are the sites that Iβve used.
Thanks
TK what do you think for us tomorrow night?
3-6. Starts by 7PM and ends by 5AM +/- 1 hour on each.
You were suppose to tell me a coating haha. Oh well. Light stuff?
Fairly light, somewhere between 10:1 and 12:1 on the ratio.
Thank you TK.
TK, Thanks for your forecast. I believe there’s one last Arctic front to pull through these parts and it will likely happen at the end of next weekend. Am I correct in saying that? It looks like the cold fronts that sweep through this week won’t have the bite that previous ones have had. Also, looks like significant melting from Wednesday through Saturday, with the exception of Thursday and Friday nights. Thankfully not a dramatic melt-off.
Not sure where the melting is going to happen on Thursday through Saturday next week. Channel 4 has high temps for those three days at 26, 28 and 33.
As long as it is sunny it will still melt this time of the year…obviously not like it would in the 40’s.
I don’t think we’ll see much sun between Wednesday and next weekend.
Don’t you have anything positive tonight? Haha. Well you did call for a miserable few weeks…get me to April.
There are always tons of positives.
Thanks TK.
Thank you TK.
Most guidance points to the heaviest with this event pretty far to the South Of Boston.
I remain unimpressed. Perhaps something will change on that, but so far looks
like WIMPORAMA. Most especially compared to the 4 big storms we have had this season.
Looking around, the SREF is the only one that brings more Snow this far North.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f036.gif
Then I found this from the NWS
WS Boston β@NWSBoston 3h3 hours ago
Some data is indicating the potential for a period of 1 inch per hour snowfall rates Sunday night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B–YM77XIAAIdu8.jpg
Of course they don’t say what model that is????
0z NAM
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
0z GFS
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
Great evening out tonight, not that cold out, went to the uml hockey game with my friend and now going to be going skiing tomorrow hopefully
Winter Storm Watch Still up.
(I think it should be moved South by about 30 miles or so. But who the bleep am I)
http://www.weather.gov/box/
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…4 TO 8 INCHES.
* VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
Ok Another Facuckta NWS oddity.
A range of 4-8 inches in the watch area. 4 inches does NOT NOT NOT
justify Winter Storm Watch. I just don’t get these guys at all.
If the range is truly 4-8 it is an advisory event, not Winter Storm.
IF they want to stick to Winter Storm watch, then the range should have
a 6 in the lower range and NOTHING less.
Again what do I know. Just my thoughts.
If the highest # on the range is within the criteria for a watch/warning, then they must issue one.
I think that is ludicrous. May be the rules, but that is nuts.
More from NWS
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF A 0.3-0.6 N-S PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH A N-S SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GRADIENT RANGING FROM 15:1 TO 10:1 YIELDS HIGH- END SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING ON AVERAGE AROUND 3-6 INCHES. AREAS OF 6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY FROM
CENTRAL-CT E INTO SE-MA /INCLUDING THE UPPER-CAPE/. A CHALLENGE AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES AND DECISION-MAKING.
If it’s a high advisory event and I agree with that, then why oh why
the Winter Storm Watch????????????????
Down to 16.5 so far after getting up to near 32. π
0Z CMC confirms heaviest SNOW to the South with “about” 4 inches for Boston
with 10:1. Ratio at Boston may be 12:1 so might be closer to the 5 inches
I have been saying all along.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015030100/gem_asnow_neus_8.png
0Z 4km NAM Mesoscale
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015030100/nam4km_asnow_neus_17.png
Again heaviest to the South. We seem to have a theme here.
12Km NAM
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015030100/namconus_asnow_neus_17.png
Ryan Maue β@RyanMaue 7m7 minutes ago
NWS 4-6” total snowfall from NYC to Boston thru Monday morning.
NCEP NDFD snowfall accumulation
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-_Ts_PU8AIuXLt.png
And finally Dt’s take
https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11009093_825815000799093_7995565747343983009_n.jpg?oh=bed2d4172147c1a3818b441212d8bd61&oe=55956ED6
What is the timeframe for the start of the storm today ?
And happy March.
I saw 3-4 PM on TV.
Actually maybe later… 7PM.
Thank you longshot
Good morning!
Welcome to March indeed, the gateway month to SPRING!
Happy Meteorological Spring!
Todayβs AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What type of seeds can you start inside now for planting outside this spring?
A. Parsley and onions
B. Peas and Beans
C. Tomatoes and Peppers
D. Cucumbers and Corn
Answer later today.
I can’t start any because I’d kill them before I could get them outside
But I will guess C
Thank for the quiz. Haven’t even a clue.
I’ll go with B. as a total guess.
Happy March 1st!
An English proverb describes typical March weather: (A Common Pennsylvania Saying) March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.
In Wales this proverb is applied to the month of April more often than March, especially in the borders.
In the 19th century it was used as a prediction contingent on a year’s early March weather: If March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb.
But, it was recognized to not work well. The reverse is true as well. If the weather is nice early, it comes in like a lamb and will go out like a lion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_lore#Lion_and_Lamb
Happy Meteorological Spring everyone.
Snow comes in later this afternoon should be done around daybreak. Boston will be very close to the record when this one is over.
A.
C. is on hold for a couple of weeks
I noticed channel 7 lowered amounts at least where I am in Woburn…went from 4-6″ to. 2-4″… Seem accurate based on recent runs?
Thanks, TK.
And Happy Meteorological Spring – Happy March! Does anyone have any estimate on when the below freezing temps. will start to moderate finally and not come back until nxt. Dec. or so?
And my answer is C.
NWS has shifted the Winter storm watch, now warning to the SOuth and shrunk
it considerably. FINALLY!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_AwBkdXEAApFul.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_AwBjwW4AEysU1.png
http://www.weather.gov/box/
4-8 inches in warning area
3-6 inches in advisory area
Looks like the melting will begin in earnest next Saturday, as we will have high temps above freezing for 3 straight days.. Can’t wait.
Preview Tuesday night. π
6Z RGEM mesoscale Canadian snow map at 10:1 ratio
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015030106/rgem_asnow_us_12.png
This is the most robust of them all.
Before wishing everyone a happy meteorological spring, I want to reiterate that the month we just closed the books on will likely never happen again in our lifetime. It was something special. Moreover, the 5-week period we just experienced will likely not repeat itself again in our lifetime. We may get another season of over 100 inches of snow, but not all in a short 5-week span. It’s been historic, and I hate to use that overused word. I think the temperatures in February are even more impressive than the snow. I believe Boston had two days which went above freezing: Two! That’s hard enough in January, but next to impossible in February. We’ll be talking about the past 4-5 week period for generations to come.
Looks like the `95-96 record may not be broken this week – though we’ll get awfully close. If we’re within an inch or so we’ll definitely break it with a couple of March snow squalls. But, if it’s 2 inches or more it may be hard to break. While it can and does snow in March, the chances diminish as we approach the latter part of the month. The pattern is definitely shifting into more normal mode. Not spring mode, Charlie, no, a more normal March pattern which I can’t call spring. For spring, go to England or Holland, not New England.
Well I remember last year everyone said it was a winter that happens every 100 years…and then this winter comes along and kills it. I hope I never see anything like it again but I don’t trust statistics anymore ha.
What we witnessed was something like a 300-400 year event.
I still think we have a shot at breaking the record between tonight
and Tuesday. Agree it will be close. I thought it was a lock until the main
thump of tonight’s snow SHIFTED South. Some scenarios:
Amount needed: 5.6 inches
Tonight Tuesday Total Record
5 1 6 Broken
4 1 5 Not broken
3 1 4 Not Broken
2 1 3 Not Broken
5 2 7 Broken
4 2 6 Broken
3 2 5 Not Broken
Most likely amounts Low End High End
Tonight 4 2.5 6
Tuesday 1.5 Coating 3
total 5.5 2.5 9
See how close this becomes.
Well that formatted well. Sorry about that.
TEST of format
Col 1 Col 2
111 222
Word Press BLOWS!!!
So far anyway, radar echoes moving straight West to East.
Most echoes look to stay South of us.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php
However, there is some Northward movement on this rather unimpressive
water vapor loop:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20150301&endTime=-1&duration=12
Instant weather maps has old runs. No new ones. HRRR is stuck at 02Z run last
night. Just when you need them, they are unavailable!!!!!!!
Tropical shitbits as well.
Latest SREF shows Southward shift.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f024.gif
But shows Virtually NOTHING for Tuesday, seriously jeopardizing
the Snow Record.
We needed tonight’s to stay North and for insurance get the
1-3, 2-4 inch front end thump Tuesday. Does NOT appear to be
in the cards.
Record may not fall this week, after thinking it was a certainty.
We’ll keep watching.
1015 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING…AND LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE…WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE…COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET…THEN FREEZING RAIN.
Above is for TUE NIGHT INTO WED…
That’s when I think we break our record!
IF that pans out, the RECORD falls for sure!!!
Eric Fisher β@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago
I don’t think we’ll reach the seasonal record tonight in Boston. Heavier snow should be south of the city. Maybe Tuesday night.
Current Boston Nexrad Composite Radar display
http://i.imgur.com/GFg8JZa.png
Most of this is in the clouds and NOT reaching the ground, but it does show
that the column is beginning to get moistened and SNOW will commence sooner
rather than later.
NWS says 2-4 PM start for Eastern Sections:
15Z METARS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE DANBURY CT AREA. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE 15Z-18Z FOR FIRST SNOWFLAKES TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN ZONES…18Z-20Z EASTERN MOST ZONES.
Would this means it ends sooner?
Yes. NWS says accumulating snow ends by 1AM.
Here is the wording.
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
The pattern I believe slows down after the midweek system. The deeper we get into march the snow chances dwindle, yes it can snow till April but need a very good set up. Just my opinion but folks looking to have that record broken should hope we can get as much snow tonight as possible because what ever falls tonight in my thinking will be way more than the next system. Wednesday looks to me in the mid 40s day time tempature.
A couple stations now reporting 46 for Wednesdays tempature. Could some places hit 50? Whatever comes in Tuesday if you are looking for snow you would want that system to come as early as possible Wednesday wee hrs with no delay.
NCEP straight up blows. The data files for model products- which have been coming in rather slow for months now, hence occasional delays in model data- are now coming in so slow that many runs are taking hours longer than usual to plot or are not plotting at all. Per our friend Ryan Maue on Twitter, right now files are coming in about 99.5% slower than they were two months ago (usually they take just seconds). Embarrassing.
Never mind the fact that the NCEP models still can’t hold a candle to most European and Canadian products. Now they can’t even get the damn data out. Apparently there are no immediate plans for a fix either; it’s a well known problem, but one that is not expected to be straightened out fully for at least another month or two. Hopefully they can at least get it back to the buggy but usable state it’s been in for the past couple months, because right now it’s practically useless. Rant over π
Still looks like a general 3-6″ event on this system, lowest north, highest south. Record falls Tuesday/Wednesday.
What are we looking at for QPF for Wednesday’s event and what percentage as rain? Trying to figure out if I should shovel some snow away from the foundation. Anything more than 1″ of rain
NWS clearly stated .4 to .6 as SNOW. WOW!
I’m glad you saw that as well OS.
I thought I was dreaming when I saw that.
My opinion is, that could be true in Concord, NH or interior Maine, but I cant remember the last time an inside runner in early March, with not the coldest airmass over New England, ever producing that much snow, in southern parts of New England, in this type of setup.
For Boston?
Shotime post this above and it is right from the NWS
website. It is NOT made up
1015 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENINGβ¦AND LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHEREβ¦WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFOREβ¦COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEETβ¦THEN FREEZING RAIN.
I would presume Boston falls within that virtually everywhere!!! No?
The way its written, yes.
Will that happen …. I would be absolutely shocked !
Been snowing here lightly for just over an hour. Roads starting to coat up a little bit.
February 2015 Coldest month ever here in CT!
Light snow has begun in Coventry, CT as well. This was much earlier than I had anticipated. System is well ahead of schedule.
Daughter said earlier when we were trying to figure timeframe for son driving to southern RI that most systems have seemed to come in early.
If the record at Logan doesnt get broken by mid week, I’d submit that we wont know if it stands or falls until April 15th. Why the record has to be broken by the mid week storm is beyond me. π π …….. Is spring arriving and never leaving starting on Thursday, March 5th ? I doubt it, but that would be fine by me.
It is my opinion that the snowfall seasonal record is not a big deal, one way or the other. Either way, it will not define the impact of the last 5 weeks. It will especially not define the incredible, sustained cold of the last 5 weeks.
It’s a psychological thing. It simply NEEDS to be broken. You are free
to disagree, but for most people, it is icing on the cake and it needs to happen.
π
I can understand that.
Its just that to me, its like comparing apples and oranges.
I’ve had 2+ feet of snow cover on the ground for nearly 5 straight weeks ….. in Marshfield. During the last 2 weeks of those 5 weeks, its probably closer to 3ft.
Not even winter 95-96 had that in Lowell. We had 2 different periods of deep snow cover of shorter duration, because of a 2-3 day thaw in btwn that wiped out the first deep snowpack.
Thats my reasoning for not worrying too much about the final total.
Its been its own, unique experience. π π
I agree it has been what you describe, that is why I said
the record is like icing on the cake. It just completes the experience. I would feel a tremendous void if the record
is not broken.
Fair enough π π
Kinda like 18-1….
Not sure what this reference is, however,
let me assume you mean an 18-1 baseball game. IF that final run was a RECORD
home run by a player, say big Papi, then
YES. Perfect analogy. π
2007 Patriots, I’m guessing.
Well that makes sense. Never went there. I guess baseball always remains #1 with me. π
I’m in the Tom camp. If we break it great. If not, we have set so many records this month that It seems to be just one more number and also it is just that….a number….that in the end cannot possibly capture the history we have seen. In some way IMHO it almost diminishes it
Make that 3 I’m in as well!!
:). A fun discussion seeing how everyone views it
Radar still showing heavier echoes WELL to the SOUTH and moving almost
Due East.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php
Beat me to it by 1 min, lol
Radar returns north of NYC and extending on a line back to the west look unimpressive to me, light and broken, no inch per hour rates in there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the heavier snows end up even further south than modeled.
That is my fear. Still a chance it turns as it reaches the coast.
But I am smelling BUST.
NAM 500MB for 1PM
That does not look to suddenly propel the heavier precip this way, does it?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_006_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=006&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150301+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=63
Nope
Snowing over a good portion of Connecticut.
I think how Boston does tonight will be determined by the area of precip over northernmost Indiana or just east southeast of Chicago.
Yes it. All of CT under winter weather advisroy for 3-6 inches of snow.
Saw a tweet from Gil Simmons light snow then 5pm – 2AM when it will be the heaviest. Will see. It came in earlier than expected.
Don’t forget, most of the snow from this upcoming event is not coming from precipitation already seen on radar (such as that heavier stuff to the south moving east) but precipitation that has not yet formed. It will be forming over southern New England as it falls. It’s being generated right overhead in many of these systems.
Thanks for pointing that out.
But given that, most models still keep heavier snow to the South.
It’s snowing here in CT indeed but very light.
As far as the radar returns, keep in mind it’s only 11:30 and the bulk of the storm doesn’t occur until after dark. Back edge of the precip is still way back in Illinois. And there is going to be some enhancement of the precip over SNE later on as a wave of low pressure forms to the south of us. So don’t get too wrapped up in what the radar look like at this moment.
I am still liking my chances for 5 or 6″ of snow here but would expect Boston to come in closer to 3 or 4″.
Still firmly in the camp that the record falls in Boston this week. Not buying the up front thump of 4-6″ of snow the NWS is talking about for Tuesday night but I could see 2 or 3″ easy.
Got to watch that interior for icing Tuesday night into Wed before a change to rain happens.
Charlie must be on Long Island today. π
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_BqyM_VIAAqz8H.jpg
π
95-96 winter vs 2014-2015, Dec – Feb (Meteorological winter portion)
95 – 96 Dec : 24.1 inches, -3.0F temp departure
14 – 15 Dec : 0.3 inches, +3.5F temp departure
95 – 96 Jan : 39.8 inches, +1.1F
14-15 Jan : 34.3 inches, -2.9F
95-96 Feb : 15.5 inches, -0.8F.
14-15 Feb : 64.8 inches, -12.7F
Data courtesy Taunton NWS.
My wife is in Naples, FL. ……….
11am : 80F, dp : 69F.
Deep sigh ……..
Nice Tom , the girls with her as well. I booked Florida last night. I hope you get tomorrow in pal as I believe we now have been extended to 6/28.
For me personally it does not matter one bit what the total numbers come in at when this winter is over record or not does not matter . This has been a historic 6 weeks of winter one that I’ve never seen and hope not to see again for some time. This 6 weeks has caused all sorts of problems for a lot of folks out there . Even for the snow removal personal and contractors who have worked hard and have deserved every dollar they may have made enough is enough .
But stats are stats and it will be noted. Those who note them are not unaware of the difficulty of recent weeks.
Oh I know that. But if you put a poll out there I think it would be a landslide for record vs nobody cares enough is enough I think the second enough is enough would win huge.
OS… I agree the heaviest precip will probably be to the south.
I think Boston gets 4 inches tonight and 2 inches Tuesday night. Record gone.
Tk timing for boston 3 do you think or later.
After 5 for steady. May flake a bit before. That’s up a little from what I thought yesterday, but not by much.
Thanks TK.
Once the record goes, I’m ready for Spring, not that’ we’ll get it. π
Repost.
Todayβs AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What type of seeds can you start inside now for planting outside this spring?
A. Parsley and onions
B. Peas and Beans
C. Tomatoes and Peppers
D. Cucumbers and Corn
Answer later today.
C
Some positive news:
After Wednesday, below normal precipitation into mid month. Still below normal temps, but not as big a departure. This will allow for a gradual melt at least for the time-being.
Indeed positive. Hoping the atmosphere has “snowed itself out” soon.
Any temps close to normal after the month of February are going to feel mild. Ten times where I live in CT the lows got to below zero. At least here in CT for all the cold we broke the record and had the coldest month of all time.
12z GFS for this system
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036
Looks like 3 or so for Woburn based on that run. It is 3 more than I need but beats what we have been getting.
Ok
Snow commenced st 1:52 pm in jp.
Now in west roxbury. Steady light snow
With visibilities coming down.
Was spitting snow here starting at 1:00ish. Now I see a big orb behind the clouds. Sun I’d definitely higher in sky
Is not I’d
Saw the sun to with the light snow coming down. Really not accumulating. When it started around 10 AM a quick coating happened.
There was a very quick coating here too…..very light but was still there.
Out of store
Still snowing. Sun disk just disappeared.
Really strong echoes to our south and southwest.
Very heavy snow or sleet.
Its heavy snow in NYC area.
Nada so far in Woburn
Light flakes…super light right now
Very light wet snow in pembroke. Not sticking.
Home in JP. Still snowing very lightly but steady. Temp 29.9
Watching that heavy band of snow lifting through NYC and Long Island Sound heading towards part of southern Fairfield and New Haven Counties in CT. Wondering if that band will make it up to me with same intensity. Now a steady light snow out my window. NWS out of Upton, NY mentioning the possiblity of short fused winter storm warnings.
Anything I thought I might have learned about the weather ….. Out the window the past 3 days.
First ….. On Feb 27th and 28th, two straight days with 100% sunshine, with light wind to boot on the 2nd day and the temp doesnt hit 32F.
Then today, back to a South wind and that brings …… snow and it remains quite cold.
What is going on ? Solar constant fall off π π π
Solar minimum
Snow is ever so slowly picking up in intensity here.
Same here.
Ditto here. You’d think it would get old watching snow. It just doesn’t βοΈβοΈβοΈβοΈβοΈβοΈ
NWS out of Upton, NY did in fact upgrade central eastern Long Island southern New Haven southern Middlesex and all of New London County to a winter storm warning. There was a discussion about that earlier.
I haven’t seen anyone posting model runs unless I missed it…any changes today?
I posted the 12z GFS for this current system earlier.
Good observations, Tom. I was surprised the entire month of February. We had some sunny days, but it didn’t really warm up. Refrigeration effect played a part. But, there was something else going on, too, I think.
If we extrapolate forward to spring and summer … Hypothetical: Suppose the pattern we’re in stayed in place with cold or cool air spilling over the North Pole and taking a more or less direct route to New England could we be looking at highs generally in the 60s in July, with it cooling off to the 40s or even upper 30s at night? Theoretically I guess this could happen. Nunavut’s been about 20-30 degrees colder than Boston this winter. Usually there’s a much more significant difference. In the summer, Nunavut’s generally in the 40s. Hence, 60s/low 70s could be general highs in July in Boston. Not likely, of course. Patterns change. But, an interesting hypothetical.
Intensity picking up more. Everything is covered again, especially roofs and car tops.
This system is behaving like the one last Saturday at least where I am. It started with spotty light snow then around 3 a steady light snow is falling and surfaces that did not have snow on them earlier now are coated.
Barely a coating here and only spotty
I don’t think your going to see the big totals from this one.
American models really putting more of the accumulating snow across CT RI and areas in southeastern MA.
Works for me π
Light sugar coating this far…I would give just about anything for it to stop ha.
Snow is really struggling to reach any kind of meaningful intensity north of a Hartford to Providence to Plymouth line. I don’t see that changing.
It will.
Snow is picking up in Plymouth and starting to stick on the roads. At least it is covering up the dirty snow. May as well make lemonade out of this somehow. π
In the winter of 2010- 11 when we were getting snow blitzed here in CT after that last storm in that six week blitz in early February I was getting close to the breaking point for the first time in my life with snow.
I am not to that point this winter since we have had just over half of what you got this winter. When April 1st hits then I am ready for spring and warm weather.
Heavier snow on our doorstep
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php
We have a full house, no more room, go away snow
I second this!
Hahaha. Good Ace
Barely spitting in the Merrimack Valley. Has been like this off and on for two hours or so.
Just a tad south of me that heavier band of snow.
well yesterday evening was great, to bad my friend nick did not want to go to wawa tonight. Oh well.
oh by the way its snowing out , only a dusting so far…
Has been a really nice late winter weekend for sure. Watching the wood pile dwindle however, I’m starting to look forward to warmer times ahead.
The same thing is happening at my mom’s. A lot of wood burned this winter.
I had by far the most of any year to start and thought I’d have enough to get into half of next year. Not so!
Picking up down here on the south shore.
At my mom’s fortunate to get the amount of wood we did from tree’s that fell with Irene, October Noreaster, and Sandy.
A lot of that is gone from this winter and last winter.
Same up here. Cutting up fallen trees when we had a micro burst come through the woods near by I think July 3. The one that tour the roof off the auto body shop in Methuen that was on the news.
Beginning to snow pretty good here now. Strong echoes are just about here.
Looking really Wintry out there for sure.
I think that 3-6 inch forecast is going to work out here in CT. It looks shoreline will get more snow as that where the heavier
bands seem to be setting up shop.
Midweek systems looking more and more interesting. Nam looks ominous at hour 84 but it’s the Nam at hour 84. GFS beginning to show something along the frontal boundary after the initial low passes to the northwest. Will see what the 0z runs have to say. One thing to note on this current system is the GFS and how it handled this storm. It had showed a more northerly solution and only at the last minute adjustep to a more southerly solution.
Didn’t see this as I was posting. Please see below for more on this. I’m with you.
Not to Rain on anyone’s parade, BUT it is beginning to look like we’ll have yet another
over running event AFTER the Tuesday/Wednesday system exits the area. Front hangs up just to Our South with really COLD air draining in and GULF moisture over running.
We shall see.
Ryan Maue β@RyanMaue 17m17 minutes ago
UKMET 12z has quite a winter mess for Northeast w/frontal boundary late Wed into Thurs 5-day snowfall totals are big
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_C6aNFU8AALbvM.png
Not so big considering this includes tonight’s snow
Oh, I agree with that statement, However, it reiterates that something is up for later in the week.
Ryan Maue with his PHD and all should be MORE on the ball than that. π
A wise man once told me the educated man isn’t always the intelligent man π
Too smart to think sometimes. π
Joe Bastardi β@BigJoeBastardi 22m22 minutes ago
never seen freezing rain on south wind At Atlantic City. Hard enough in dead of winter,yet alone Mar 1. testimony to the extremity of cold
The snow cover across the U.S. on March 1st quite impressive.
Going to rehab to visit Dad then bring Mom home. Will post new blog shortly after 7PM.
Good luck and drive carefully. Getting slippery out there.
Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
Kevin Galliford β@KallMeKG 4m4 minutes ago
I-95 & the #Merritt are disasters right now. #Snow #Winterstorm #Gavin
Winter Storm Gavin as its beeing called by our CBS station here in CT as the theme this year is musicians.
Just saw the view from New Haven and it is coming down hard. Looking like southern CT will get the bigger totals from this one.
JJ, curious the criteria for naming a winter storm in CT.
6-8″ of snow in the evening – overnight hours of a Sunday night ending before daybreak monday morning doesnt strike me as warranting a named winter storm. Doesn’t seem to fit the usual criteria suspects
At 6Pm it was like someone threw the switch. Instantly the snow become much
Heavier. Hard to tell vis from my location. Under a mile for sure. Somewhere
between 1/2 and 3/4 mile or so.
Snowing really good now. Bordering on Moderate, if not already so.
AccuWeather.com
58 mins Β·
Washington, D.C. has been called “an ice rink” this afternoon and Boston may tip into their record snowiest season tonight. Details in our Live Blog:
You can see the Slow Northward progress of the snow on this Nexrad Radar
loop:
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml
When that echo crossed my area, is when the switch went off. π
AceMaster WFSB our CBS station has been naming winter storms since the early 70s. The criteria for WFSB to name a storm is 6 inches or more of snow over a large part of CT or 1/4 inch of ice or greater over a large portion of CT. There is a theme to the names. This year people of facebook voted and wanted musicians for the names. Last year it was towns in CT.
Really accumulating now. Moderate Snow for sure now. NOT heavy yet.
Answer to todayβs AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What type of seeds can you start inside now for planting outside this spring?
A. Parsley and onions
B. Peas and Beans
C. Tomatoes and Peppers
D. Cucumbers and Corn
The answer is A.
Thank you Longshot. I have tried so often to start seeds with no luck. I did not inherit my moms green thumb. But my girls did!!
Well, in the last hour, we have gotten 1″, maybe 1.25 inches of snow. Streets are completely snow covered.
Moderate, borderline heavy. Very thick, misty like snow.
If this keeps up for 3-5 more hrs …….
Send it over Logan, could you please. π
I’d be happy too. π π
Accumulations building to our South.
NWS Boston β@NWSBoston 18s19 seconds ago
Thanks Steve! MT @steveginx: 2.5 New Moosup CT mod to heavy snow
NWS Boston β@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
Thanks Tony! RT @tony_tpetrarca: 1.5 inches West Warwick RI..6::02pm
US National Weather Service Boston MA added 2 new photos.
4 mins Β·
A steady moderate to heavy snow was overspreading CT/RI and South of the MA Pike this evening. Snow intensity lessens between 10 pm and 1 am from west to east, then tapers off to light snow/flurries 1 am to 4 am from Northwest to Southeast.
New blog posted! It’s a long read. π