229 thoughts on “The Winter Review / The Week Ahead / The Spring Ahead”

1. Awesome! Thanks TK!

2. Great info! Thanks TK! Hope mom and dad are doing okay.

3. Third tonight! But thanks!

4. Thanks TK. Excellent read.

5. Great read. Lets hope for a slow melt!

6. Thanks, TK. I skimmed, but will print this at my office tomorrow and do a more careful read-through.

7. Just measured 3.5 inches of snow and coming down at a moderate clip. Maybe closer to the top end of the 3-6 just like with the last system with several more hours of snow to go.

8. Thanks TK. I’d like to say that, although I am not first, I took great time to read and digest the more than informative blog information…… I do not mean to imply those who were first might not have done the same 😉

   My question is What daily precip means. Rain? Snow ratio? Thank you again

   12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.90…PREVIOUSLY 1.29 IN 1956

   1. It’s total melted precipitation for the 24-hour day ending at midnight. They keep tabs and it so happened that the 2.90 that fell on December 9 was the most ever for that date, surpassing the 1.29 set on December 9 1956. It’s not the most useful stat, to be honest.

      1. Got it. Thank you

9. Many, many thanks TK !

10. What time does it start in Boston? Lol not impressed yet.

    1. It’s doing just what it’s supposed to and right on time. They will not be close to 6. Closer to 3.

11. Many thanks TK. great info

    Re: This system

    Well, it looks like it’s going to abruptly END before even coming close
    to even the low range in accumulations. Perhaps I am missing something, but
    Up this way, it smells like a Bust. 😀

    1. Glad I never got that Jazzed up about this to begin with. I’ll probably land between 3-4″ unless something really surprises while asleep.

    2. Really ….. Wow ….. we’re somewhere around 2.5 to 3 inches and snowing steadily.

       1. Hey, I could be wrong, but I see the radar breaking up.
          It’s snowing pretty good now with perhaps just an inch or
          so thus far.

          This radar scares the life out of me. NOT! 😀 😀 😀

          http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml

          1. There has been a difference btwn the south shore echoes vs Boston, so, I’m not surprised we’re seeing more.

             1. Yes, this is a different event to the South. Already 6 plus inches on parts of Long Island.

                1. Thats the part thats intriguing.

                   The snow chiller is being refortified in southernmost New England.

12. TK,

    Nice write-up. Tough to argue with that. Dry, average/little below temps with low DP’s will mean SLOW melt.

    1. A slow and steady melt is exactly what we need. Keep the Stinken
       Warm RAIN events away please. 😀

13. Norton I’m A Scared!!!!!!!!!! WOA!!!

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 13m13 minutes ago
    This Week’s Storm Potential could be Huge! Truly Pattern Changing! The #GFS shows much warmer temperatures next week.

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 16m16 minutes ago
    Watching #Significant Coastal Snowstorm Potential Wednesday-Thursday. Could affect #Philly to #Boston.

    1. OS any idea what they are basing that on, did something materially change in the models to suggest this? I suppose any storm in the winter could *potentially* be significant..

       1. Here is the GFS version of the snow

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030118&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=105

          I think just a ripply wave or 2 on the front promoting over running precip.

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030118&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=090

    2. Well, we could be seeing the first signs of the southeast ridge being stronger and holding that cold front in place to send moisture up along it, into the colder air returning into New England.

       But, my head is thinking that it would be a long duration overrunning event, versus a traditional big snowstorm.

       1. In that scenario, would we still get the mix Tues PM/Rain Wed AM..? i.e. this would be after that plays out?

          1. Yes to mid week.

             I think TK wrote above that there’s a chance that the majority of the whatever precip occurs from “first” midweek system could fall as snow, with less precip left over when we go above freezing.

             Then, event “two” would follow a bit later in the week.

             I think we need to see a good 2 more days of model runs on this 2nd event to see what this does or does not evolve to.

             1. Got it/thx

14. Finally,

    Our little storm showing up on a map

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

15. Hmmm
    SNOW just got heavier with bigger flakes.

    Radar still looks unremarkable. Perhaps something is happening.
    We shall see.

    1. That would be the generating snow I spoke of earlier today. 🙂

       1. Didn’t last. Snow winding down here.

16. Its a wet snow where I am as I went half hour ago and measured 3.5 inches of snow. Have not had too many of these wet snows this winter.

    1. I’m assuming there’s not too much wind down there allowing that wet snow to easily accumulate on the trees ……

       How are the tree limbs looking ?

17. No power in Sterling. First time this Winter. Go figure…

    1. Good luck Scott, hope it returns soon !

    2. Good luck and I am soooo jealous … Sorry but I cannot help myself.

    3. Close to whole Town is out right now it sounds like…

18. Just under 2″ here. Looks to be mostly done by 10 or so

19. I’m a little confused. Probably early onset senility. There’s been mention of a possible snowstorm late this week? I assume after the snow to mix to rain event Tuesday night/Wednesday. Is the snowstorm or overrunning event happening Wednesday night? Thursday? Temps appear marginal at best. Or, is it happening Thursday night when we get a real cold shot, which may give some energy to any coastal low that may or may not want to form. Finally, I don’t understand the tweet saying it’s going to warm up significantly next week. I see a definite warm-up, but nothing out of the ordinary. More seasonal than anything else.

    In any case, I am rooting for the record to be broken at this point. Yes, that’s me, the guy who’s been prone to being wrong and underestimating snowstorms since early February.

    1. For the last couple days my concern has been the position of the front from the midweek system, sitting not too far to the south of New England. These features have been known to send waves of precipitation back into the Northeast when there is a broad trough over the Great Lakes and New England, as there is expected to be. This is why I am not biting on the sunny forecasts many outlets have.

20. Tom the snow is clinging a bit to the trees and branches. A little bit on the power lines. Thankfully no wind.

21. Maybe an inch or two here. No sign of snow on wires but I tried willing it to.

22. We are between 1.5″-2.0″ in Sherborn, thinking we end up closer to 3″ than 4″ on this event. Everything is dressed in a fresh coat of white again. Beautiful night.

23. Should be done real soon in the city. Going to need Wednesday now to move towards that record for those interested . Totaly not impressed with this one as this makes the 3rd easy won this week.

    1. One

    2. This was never really expected to be an impressive event, and I brought amounts down a little on the most recent update.

       Updates override the original forecast numbers.

       1. I’m not talking about your forcast at all. Just saying not impressed.

          1. I guess I’m just wondering what people were expecting… Even if it comes in an inch or two under some of the numbers, we’re talking a 0.2 inch melted difference.

             1. When I saw the runs shift the heavier snow axis to the South, frankly, I wasn’t expected much at all
                and that’s how it panned out. 😀

24. So odd that it can snow as much as it appears and still not more than two inches if that. But sure is pretty to watch

25. Boston is going to come in with this event around 2 inches or so and that’s it.

26. NAM 7AM Thursday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030200&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    1. Verrry marginal temps

27. Snow is all done falling in the city.

28. An early measurement puts Boston at 103.9″ for the season, but probably not the final total.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

29. 1.9 in the city

30. Thanks TK. Great discussion!

31. Ended up with 3″ out here. Looks like a real crappy week of weather coming up. Snow, Ice, Rain, Cool, Cold, Some wind at the end. Lovely.

    1. I hope our snow pack takes a hit this week.

32. Anyone think Logan gets 3.7″ or greater this week? Looks like two chances, Tuesday and Thursday. I love the accuweather long range forecast, it’s shows lots of high temps in the 30’s to 50’s for the month of March. Ok stop laughing but If get that and keep the rain fall down, our snow pack should dwindle down safely.

    1. Logan is now reporting it needs 3.5″.

    2. The trusted NWS Weather Hourly Graph shows Logan picking up 5″ this week which would do the trick.

    3. In any other winter ….. no.

       But this year, an inside runner and somehow cooling, without a great air mass push, from 45F on Wednesday in time to snow Thursday …… yes, crazily this will get it done.

       And I hope it does so that the whole record thing can be put to rest.

33. Funny the front of my house had about an inch so I was happy unt I got to my driveway which has a uniform 4″. Sucks. Last Monday was the only Monday in 6 weeks I was on time for work.

34. Seeing the sun break out which is a good sight to see. Going to enjoy this quite time from now until Tuesday evening when a MESSORAMA is going to be moving in.

35. I set reminders on my calendar. One just popped up today reminding us not to power wash the deck or the deck chairs until all of the “noses” fall from the maple tree in March. I’m thinking it’ll be a bit later this year as the deck has about six feet of snow in places.

    Meanwhile with the snow on the trees and the ice sky, it is one beautiful winter morning!

36. Looks pretty. Enjoy while it lasts … not long. Looks like street and sidewalk flooding this week. Don’t wear your white pants just yet. I’m not sold on much front-end snow Tuesday (maybe an inch), and then temps appear too marginal to support much snow later in the week. That’s my early take. I guess the only thing I was right about is how hard it would be to break the record after a seemingly effortless 95 inch blitz. We’ll see what happens. In the grand scheme of things it is not important.

37. I officially am sick of leaks in the house. I can handle the one in the front window and door jam because they are just the window. But the leak on the porch ceiling which we literally had redone is my breaking point. And it is a high leak which means it in coming in through the ice barrier shield under the shingles.

    And on a far worse note, I also saw another barn roof collapse. It is in Norwell this time. I have no idea why barn owners are not clearing their roofs and having their barns inspected. I know about ten horses were trapped but do not know if they were able to be rescued.

    1. So Sad about the barn and your persistent leaks.

       I am so happy we made a preventative move and had the roof cleared
       and ice dams removed twice. Got the bill Saturday. Each visit was $450 for a total of $900. In my opinion, that was very reasonable and well worth the money.

       I can’t imagine what damage we prevented.

       best of luck with those leaks.

       1. Sadly, we have also cleared and removed ice dams on that roof twice and yet they form again. It is just the roof and should probably be covered in a rubber membrane except it would cost around $15,000 and that is a huge chunk of change. $450 is an incredibly fair price. We were quoted $800-$1000 for one time. Thank heavens for sons and sons in law.

    2. Vicki, I’m so sorry to hear that you’re still having a tough time with the leaks! Our leaks have subsided, but not until after significant damage had already occurred. Sunroom ceiling and abutting walls will have to be ripped out, sheet rocked and replastered. There are a few stains further in on my kitchen ceiling that I hope Kilz will do. I guess it could be worse!
       Best of luck today and hopefully!!! the leak in your porch ceiling settles down!

       1. Thanks, shotime. I believe the leaks I have are nowhere near as bad as many others have had. I was just making an comment and it sure sounded more like a vent – sorry about that 🙁 Hopefully, your insurance company is covering your damage. Then of course, the premiums increase. Either way, there is nothing easy about having to replace sheet rock, and redo rooms, etc.

38. Good morning! We received 4.5″ of snow in Coventry ct. Right in the middle of the expected range. Most of the heavier snow set up just south of us in southern CT and RI where there were many 6″ totals. We have replenished what little snowpack we lost and it is beginning to appear like the same thing will happen wed-Thursday.

    The 0z euro and GFS stall the front just south of us on Thursday, close enough to deliver more accumulating snow after the cold air has flooded back in. Euro delivers 3-6″ south of the pike and 1-3″ north with 6″+ in southern CT/RI and the south coast of MA

    1. And I should clarify that is for Thursday, does not include any front end snow that happens Tuesday night. Euro has a few inches there as well.

39. Hmm

    I meaured 2 inches on the nose this morning. When I cleared the car, it did appear
    there was a tad more, so perhaps it was 2.25 or 2.5 tops. Doesn’t matter.

    Boston didn’t come close to the record last night.

    Now we see what happens. I don’t see boston getting more than an inch or 2
    tomorrow night. That won’t do it.

    Then we move to the next event, Thursday. CONFLICTING information on this
    and what else is new. NAM would soar us over the top. GFS has nothing to do with it.
    Euro would likely get us the record as well, although I only have the Wundermap
    to view so it’s hard to tell. BUT on the Euro it looks like a 24 hour period
    of light to occasionally moderate Snow, which “should” do the trick.

    IF the GFS wins out an progressively moves the front off shore, then it does NOT
    happen this week.

    Some people still insist on flooding rains Tuesday/night Wednesday. Ain’t gonna
    happen. Worse case scenario, Snow to brief ice to RAIN. Temps will struggle
    to top 40, therefore I don’t see a major problem even IF there is more rain
    than expected. I don’t think we see a warm front charging through the area.
    I think surface COLD holds its ground, possibly forcing an occlusion.

    We shall see.

    1. Thanks, OS. There may be a misunderstanding. I do not think we’ll get flooding rains Tuesday night at all. I do think we’ll have some sidewalk and street flooding issues (even a little bit today with some melt-off) most of the week.

       1. Post was general and not specifically directed at you.
          I’ve seen the same sort of thing from various outlets.

          We shall see what unfolds. To be sure, there will be some
          melting today. Slow and steady with no issues.

          IF tomorrow night goes badly, I could see there being problems.
          I don’t think it will go that way, but when it comes to the
          weather no one really know what’s going to happen. The NAM’
          wants to unload a ton of qpf in the form of rain, so who knows.

          That’s what makes it so interesting to follow.

40. Logan ended up with 2.1″ final.

41. That sounds about right. Thank you.

    If you have time and can do it, would it be possible to post the
    Euro snowmap?

    Many thanks

42. Is this true? NWS thinking 3 inches tomorrow night?

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    Thinking close to 3″ for BOS. MT @mattkiernan10: Are you teasing us w/ fcst for Tue night? We need to break that record! Only 3.5″ to go

43. NWS take on Tomorrow Night

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GPn0NUsAArEH6.png

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GPou-VAAAzs__.png

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GPozEVEAEiiep.png

    In coastal sections, I don’t see ice being much of a problem. Perhaps
    a bit of sleet but hardly any freezing rain if any at all.

    We shall see.

44. Mountains of Arizona are getting Hammered.
    Consider the following, located about 12 Miles North of
    Flagstaff, Arizona

    Base elevation — 9,200 feet
    Summit elevation — 11,500 feet
    Vertical drop — 2,300 feet

    ARIZONA SNOWBOWL SNOW REPORTS
    Updated 03/02/2015 6:15 a.m.
    Hours of Operation: 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.

    Snow Conditions
    Snow in the past 24 hours 11″
    Snow in the past 7 days 59″
    Settled base depth 55-65″

45. Interesting February Snow totals graphic:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GQrarUsAALH8p.png

    1. Great find, OS

46. Panoramic HD shot of Los Angeles taken yesterday

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t34.0-12/11022994_10206098056277530_299483812_n.jpg?oh=d52ce3f819b9d8af6ebe364c84fe7e73&oe=54F6B16B&__gda__=1425450719_8a2323ef2eb5401da6fcdba1c03ac023

    1. Beautiful. I always loved that city. We stayed several times at a home that was at the peak of the Hollywood Hills back when I was in my 20s. It had a roof deck, complete with pull out beds if one wanted to sleep up there at night, and what a spectacular 360 degree view.

       1. My son is on a plane now getting ready to take off from LA and head back to Boston. So far flight is listed on time. I’m picking
          him up later.

          1. Safe travels for your son!!

             1. Thank you.
                Airport must be busy. Status listed as
                Taxiing for quite awhile now. Was supposed to depart at 10:10 AM our time.

47. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 21s21 seconds ago
    Rough exit from winter MT @wbznewsradio Peter Judge of @MassEMA: 185 roof collapses across MA since 2/9. “Looks like that will continue”.

48. I mentioned this yesterday, but the GFS did a really poor job with this last storm as it had the heavier snows to the north into the north country and only at the last minute i.e. a day before shifted more in line with other guidance. What does this mean? No clue, but it does change the weighting I would put on the GFS for the next two systems. With that said the NAM has shifted the precip south for the last two runs. It still gives a fairly healthy amount of snow in Boston, but not to the extent the 0z did and there is a sharp cut off to the north

    1. Yup, the usual. CONFLICTED information!!!
       I HATE IT!

       BUT I would go with a NAM/EURO/CMC blend at this point and TOSS
       the GFS. 😀

       Although I don’t have access to the UKMET precipitation maps beyond
       72 hours, it does look as if the UKMET is on board for additional snows
       on Thursday.

       We shall see how it all plays out.

49. NAM 24 hour snowfall ending 7PM on Thursday with it still coming down.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030212&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Does NOT show any possible snow from Tomorrow night either.

    1. It does look more and more that we are in line for additional snow
       on Thursday. Still time for that to change, but the ducks appear to be
       lining up.

50. 12Z NAM 2M Maximum 3 Hour temperature at the WARMEST point
    Tomorrow night/Wednesday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030212&time=INSTANT&var=TMAXF&hour=054

    1. Temperatures well into the 30s with a few areas barely and briefly cracking 40.
       Melting to be sure. Flooding melt? Don’t think so and hope not.

    2. 12Z GFS 2M Maximum temperature at the Warmest tomorrow night/Wednesday

       http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030212&time=INSTANT&var=TMAXF&hour=054

       Again, doesn’t crack 40.

51. Is it just me or is the radar lighting up with snow inbound?

    1. Sure looks like there are snow showers out there. Nothing too heavy, but
       they are THERE!

       http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml

       1. I haven’t heard of this at all from the few news sources I check…wonder if it won’t even reach the ground…or was this a miss?

          1. I have seen tweet reports of SNOW in the air, so
             those echoes are real and at least some of them
             are reaching the ground. 😀

52. Quite a healthy wind out there with solid cloud cover moving in.

    1. Oddly looks as if there is snow in the clouds to our northwest. Not snowing but funny look to the sky

53. 12Z GFS now coming on board with additional snows for Thursday.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030212&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=072

    1. That might just get Boston the record if we dont get any accumulating snows tomorrow night. Just sharp cutoff from south to north. From 8 or 9″ Plymouth to an inch or so in Woburn.

54. Here is the 12Z GFS snowfall map for Thursday 3/5. 24 hour total ending 10 PM
    Thursday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030212&time=24&var=ASNOW&hour=087

    So as it stands now, ALL models on board with a Wintry event for Thursday.

    1. Sorry, the was Centimeters. I have a bad habit of doing this.
       Here it is in inches

       http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030212&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=087

       1. My eyes lit up when I saw the foot plus totals into LI and RI! Still, would be pretty impressive if we picked up another 6″ here in CT. Add that to the 4.5″ we got yesterday, and another 2 or 3″ up front tomorrow night and that’s another foot of new snow for the first week of March. We will have a net gain in snowpack after this week, even with the rain in between wed. am. Pretty wild.

          1. Crazy times for sure.

             NAM is more robust than the GFS.

             We’ll keep watching.

             I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see these amounts
             go up.

    2. What time would this start on Thursday OS?

       1. “approximately” 1AM and continue through past 7PM at night.

    3. what a sharp cut off though. Will be interesting to watch it unfold, that’s for sure

       1. Indeed. With such a sharp cut off, a wobble to the South would
          make for a miss very easily. It’s really not all that far off though.

          BTW, this has been hinted at for some time now.

          Initially, the models showed the front to our South with
          the Snow missing us. But many of us knew this Snow could
          be a possibility. Still not a certainty, but definitely looking
          like it for now anyway.

          1. The Euro has actually been showing this stalled front and overrunning snow scenario for several days now. We will have to give it some credit if this pans out.

             1. Yes I remember you showing a map several
                days ago. 😀

          2. Okay hair dryer brigade, here we go!!!

55. Thanks OS,

    But that map is in CM..

    1. Yes, I caught it myself and corrected. 😀

56. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 7m7 minutes ago
    [1110am] Brief flurry possible thru early PM. Otherwise partly sunny w/temps in 30s and gusty W/NW wind.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Gs2YBVEAEcXIG.png

57. The snow showers to the west are not a surprise. Few of any flakes so make it into eastern MA.

58. Next time, OS, post your map in mm. That’ll make a 1-3 inch event look huge!

    1. Gee, I don’t think they have that option on Instant Weather Maps. 😀

       Don’t laugh, this site: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ecmwf&map=na&run=00&lang=en

       Does post the precipitation/accumulation maps in Millimeters.

       In any case, WHY would I purposely do that??? You do know that the map
       for CM and INCHES are one on top of the other in the option drop down
       menu??

       http://i.imgur.com/PNkwHuV.png

       Making it very easy to “accidentally” choose the wrong one, especially when one is in a hurry.

59. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago
    It will end as rain from pa into southern New England but low level cold air may keep it close to 32 till after all precip done.

60. 00Z euro through Thursday evening.

    https://scontent-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/t31.0-8/10915114_826428434071083_3988103216467565199_o.jpg

    If that comes to frution, boston will break the record by a couple inches.

    1. Thank you Mark.

61. OS, you asked earlier for the 0z Euro snowmap. This is for the Thursday storm. Very similar to the GFS.

    http://i.imgur.com/TZARPc1.jpg

    It also has a few inches of front end snow Tuesday night.

    I’ll post the 12z map as well when it comes out.

62. Ace, looks like we were thinking the same.

    Note that the snowmap I posted was just for the Thursday storm.

    The map Ace posted is for the entire week and includes some of last nights snow, the Tuesday night snow, and the Thursday snow.

63. I know it is somewhat early, but does anyone know how much icing we are supposed to get with the next storm? I am hearing it is expected in Central New England and that is very concerning. Could easily see it lingering with a cold air damming situation.

    1. I posted a NWS map above. Check it out.

       1. Re-Post

          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GPn0NUsAArEH6.png

          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GPou-VAAAzs__.png

          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GPozEVEAEiiep.png

          1. Thanks!

64. Looking at both the long range GFS and Euro, we have the chance at another system impacting us about a week from now on 3/9-3/10. The GFS depicts a clipper system with some snow showers while the Euro has a more substantial southern stream system affecting us on Monday which verbatim would be rain along the coast and mix interior. Model biases coming into play here as far as which stream they want to make more dominant.

    After that both models finally indicate the start of a fairly substantial warmup as we get towards the end of next week (3/13 and beyond).

65. Hi folks – I need some advice. I need to get to Pittsburgh for a funeral. Need to arrive Thursday afternoon. I’d like to drive, but am unclear on how conditions will be Thursday morning/afternoon.

    Any thoughts? Flights are OUTRAGEOUS!

    1. Amtrak? Do not know, just an idea to look into.

       1. Looked. Sold out. Bummer.

    2. Driving may be a nightmare, depending on how it all shakes out.
       Is flying out Wednesday an option as that would work?

66. DS, Remember how deregulation was supposed to make flying cheaper and easier. NOT! I used to fly Allegheny and Piedmont to Harrisburg and Pittsburgh back in the late 70s and early 80s. Direct flights from Boston, often booked last-minute. Not expensive. Now, it is outrageous, as you said. There’s almost no competition as the airlines are basically an oligopoly of about 5 carriers.

    My advice would be to not drive. I think the interior will be very icy. Worst kind of drive, plus very long. Maybe taking a bus to Philly on Wednesday and then Amtrak to Pittsburgh.

    1. Flew Piedmont quite often on business back in the early to mid 80s

67. How about this webcam view from Arizona just a few minutes ago. Who would think it could snow like this in Arizona???

    http://i.imgur.com/A4RknJ7.png

68. 12z Euro still has the back end snow on Thursday but it is a little less bullish on the accumulations than 0z. This is total snow for the week….a few inches Tues night and a few more on Thursday. We will have to see later if the ensembles agree.

    http://i.imgur.com/bVL0N9W.jpg

    1. That might not be enough to get it done as far as the record goes

69. So what will happen to many of you (mentally) if the current record is missed by 0.1″ or something like that?

    1. I said it yesterday too, but it will be like 18-1 with the Pats. So stinkin’ close.

    2. In my eyes if we don’t break the record in Boston (i say boston because according to my fathers stats from as far back as 1940 or so) we have already broken Methuens record, but we have already broke the snowiest month and shortest time frame, which still sums up this winter pretty well too.

    3. Nothing.

       This 5-week stretch has been unbelievable. Yet, I remember `95-96 fondly. I was still married. My children were young and innocent (they still are, but you know what I mean). That was an awesome winter.

    4. I’d be ready to jump off of the Pru.
       That record must fall!!!
       Must must must

       1. The upside is that if you jump off of the pru you will only have a foot or two to go before hitting a fluffy snow bank 🙂

    5. Probably miss it by less than a half inch.

    6. I can’t get into letting the enormity of what we have had the privilege of witnessing this winter be defined by a number. I say that making it very, very clear that is just me and that we all view things differently – as we should – and there is absolutely nothing wrong with wishing for the record to be broken.

       1. I read or saw somewhere that the measuring system is different now than days of yore. The measuring is now done more frequently and thus limits the effects of compacting? I think that is what I came across.
          I agree with you, Vicki: the numbers are not really the thing.
          I think everyone will agree this winter was one of a kind.
          A good year to resume skiing after a ten year layoff. Pure luck of timing for me. Little did I know what I was in for when I returned to the slopes in December Now I am wearing tire tracks into 93 to NH every weekend!

70. Not getting good vibes. We shall see

71. At logan waiting for son’s flight due sny minute.
    Crap loads of snow here.

    1. Flight has landed. Now thr luggage thing.

72. What will be the final total 2014-15 snowfall @ Logan?

    A. 110″
    B. 115″
    C. 120″
    D. will fall just short (107.6″)

    My answer is A 🙂

    1. >150 inches. Winter won’t really end this year. Boston will see snow-fall every month with the exception of June and July. … Of course, I’m kidding. But, you never know.

    2. C!

    3. I need a range………yea I know. Shut up, Vicki 🙂

73. C

74. Pats franchised gostkowski

    1. Hmmm…interesting to see how they handle McCourty (who everyone thought would get the franchise tag) and Revis.

    2. The year after they franchised Vinateri they let him go…

75. I have a feeling thurs over achieves.
    Let’s see how much crap resides within me!

76. So what’s my prize for the snow amount contest? Is it just bragging rights? HA.

    1. A snow cone machine.

       1. Talk about a re-gift…HA. Anything snow related = bad.

    2. I am picturing myself swimming in my vault of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck…

77. 18z nam has shifted back north for Thursday and is much more robust in terms of QPF.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=081&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_081_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150302+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    1. Snowfall.

       http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030218&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

       1. Hmm … record breaker?

          1. By a long shot.

             1. Ahhh, i see what you did there 😉

78. The NAM has consistently had a bias to over-amp and send systems too far NW in the long range only to correct back SE inside 48 hours. The fact that most other guidance is not showing the heavier precip so far north is a red flag. I would expect it to shift the heavier totals farther south in future runs. That’s not to say that Boston cant still get in on a moderate to significant snowfall.

79. The 12z Euro ensembles are more robust than the operational run with advisory level snow for pretty much all of SNE. Borderline warning level on the south coast but with potential p-type issues.

80. 12z UKMET with some impressive snow totals for SNE:
    https://twitter.com/NY_WX/status/572489538880323584/photo/1

81. That record is toast. COUNT on it.
    And yes I do want it to fall. And no I don’t feel guilty for wanting it to fall. I was hoping it would happen with a few small snow events once we got this close. I don’t subscribe to the “wishing for snow, etc.” mentality. I never have, nor will I ever. I can wish for an F-5 tornado to travel the length of the Mass Pike and not pay any tolls, or I can wish for 560 sunny days in a row. It doesn’t matter WHAT I wish for. I have no say in what happens.

    So there. There is no debate.
    Ok thanks! 🙂

    1. Tell us how you feel :). And why would you or anyone feel guilty either way?

    2. Been reading all day. I want the record broken for all that have shoveled roofs or have worried about first responders enduring long hours and the national guard working countless hours away from their family clearing snow in the worst conditions to keep there communities safe. It is a mental thing to break the record and records are made to be broken. It’s March 2 and plenty of time. I do not wish hardship on people with leaks or roof damage, but to just break it by a tenth of an inch will make a lot of people satisfied and the countless stories told to there future grandchildren such as I had to listen to of how “bad it was when I was in school in the early 40’s”. Just rant with lots of smiles with all of the stories from my grandparents.

       1. No more please I can’t handle anymore all nighters . It’s just like a bad dream and I can’t escape it. I’m serious I’m spent .

          1. I here you man. Were almost done!!

          2. Take care, John. You done GREAT

             1. As I was leaving last night Vicki for yet another all night snow storm my wife said just think of our trip to get you through it, nope didn’t work lol.

82. I don’t think the NAM is displaying the correct solution for Thursday. Discounted it.

    1. I’ll bite….what ARE your thoughts for Thursday? 🙂

83. I hope the record is broken by at least a few inches. I don’t want future generations thinking the 1995-96 winter and this one was similar. This winter is clearly worse. The 1995-96 snows were spread out fairly evenly IIRC from December through April with no real serious transportation issues…and certainly no roof collapses that I can recall.

84. Regarding Thursday my concern is that the bulk of the accumulating snow may end up far south of Boston…if not much of SNE. We will likely need that to truly break the record (107.6″).

    1. Thursday snow indeed looking far south at this time .

       1. John, you may be right in the end but as of today’s 12z runs, the GFS/NAM/Euro/UKMET all deliver accumulating snowfall to Boston on Thursday. Light to moderate on the GFS and Euro. Moderate to significant on the NAM and UKMET.

85. 1. 107.6″ = 1995-96
    2. 104.1″ = 2014-15 (to date)*
    3. 96.3″ = 1993-94

    1. Yep. I remember 1 and 3 well. 1992 was no picnic but didn’t compare. Daughter got her first pony in November 1992 and it was more than interesting mucking stalls, unfreezing water, and getting him exercised. And I actually miss those days more than I can say 🙂

    2. I remember #3 very well, I majored in snowboarding that semester and minored in Chemistry (I was a Chemistry major…). It should have been the other way around of course!

86. As of this posting, the 6-10/8-14 day CPC Outlook has not yet been posted on its website. It usually comes out daily shortly after 3:00 pm.

87. I dont have time to do this at the moment …… but …..

    With nearly 2/3rds of this winter’s snow coming in a month where the temp averaged -12.7F below normal and the winter 95-96 never had a month come that close …..

    Once again, I would submit we are comparing apples and oranges.

    I would bet that the 2 winter’s melted snow totals may not be as close as the actual snow totals.

    In other words, perhaps 95-96 had an 18″ storm, but the melted was like 1.3 or 1.4, whereas, I’m betting in February of 15, we got an 18″ amount out of .9 or 1.0 melted. So, its possible 14-15 snow total, because of the severe Feb cold, is inflated against 95-96. Or, if you took the 14-15 melted snow precip and had it fall in the 95-96 winter temps, might we be currently sitting closer to 80 or 90 inches ?????

    1. 2/15/15 : 13 inches of snow = 0.39 melted

       2/2/15 : 16.2 inches of snow = 0.78 melted

       1/3/96 : 10.4 inches of snow = 0.94 melted

       Also in 1/96 : 13.2 inches of snow = 0.95 melted

       Ok, I did have time. Its not even close. 🙂 🙂

       1. Thats 29.2 inches of snow on 1.17 melted vs ….. 23.6 inches of snow on 1.89 melted.

          1. 5.6 MORE inches of snow on .72 inches LESS QPF in 14-15 vs 95-96.

             Thats 2 storms from each season and again, with these temperature disparities btwn the 2 winters, I can only imagine other storm to storm comparisons would be similar.

             1. So, I propose that 14-15 has to get to somewhere around 120 inches to comparably beat 95-96.

                1. I still think we will!

                   And great summary by the way.

88. Winter Weather Advisories up from 3PM Tuesday to 10AM Wednesday for all of SNE for 2-3″ of snow followed by up to a tenth of an inch of ice accretion.

    And 18z GFS stays the course for Thursday with warning level snows for southern CT/RI/MA and advisory snows roughly south of the Pike. Very little up closer to the NH border.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030218&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

89. Well, I have a flight to Pittsburgh at 7am on Thursday. One way rental car back on Saturday. Hoping for the best. Sigh. What time is the onset of snow on Thursday?

    1. The snow looks to start overnight Wednesday (i.e. very early Thurs AM), potentially as early as midnight.

       1. Super….

90. I will boldly predict that no more snow events will be measured in “feet” this month.

    Is the Thursday event the last real opportunity of the season???

    1. Philip, it will not be the last opportunity. Its still cool through most of next week with a few more clippers diving down from Canada (and potentially a southern stream system flirting with us early next week as well if you believe the Euro). Looks like we start to warm it up finally towards the end of next week but it does not look to be a permanent switch to Spring. Some more cool shots and chances for snow will follow in the second half of the month. The end of the GFS run bears that out well. Typical mid-late March weather where we are in a battle between seasons.

91. The storms in the mid 90’s and specifically 95-96 were so different from this years’. Record breaking seasonal snows were much more widespread throughout the northeast during that winter. Storms were larger and impacted a larger area. I would also argue the pattern was more volitile in terms of delivering more QPF. IIRC, there were also a few major rainstorms in between the snowstorms. This years storms were huge don’t get me wrong, but also very localized.

    1. Of course the big one of that winter of 95-96 was the blizzard of 96. Big amounts of snow from D.C. to Boston. In fact in Philadelphia their biggest snowstorm on record

92. It looks like a more at the shore deal here in CT for Wed night into Thurs. Any slight shift north bring heavier snow totals further north.

93. Mt Washington reported a peak gust of 112 tonight

    1. Now that’s a gust of wind.

       1. For them it sure is

94. Tom, Thanks for the information. The snows of `95-96 were different. Wetter, for one thing. They happened over a much longer period. As I recall, the first major storm was in early December and the last in early April. And, they encompassed a larger area, with many of the storms covering the DC to Boston corridor plus much of central and northern New England.

    This season’s unprecedented snow blitzkrieg featured relentless snow, but as impressive, relentless cold. We’re still in the throes of an epic period of sustained cold. I don’t hail from the 1920s (even though I often feel I do – I have no cellphone and rarely watch TV) so I don’t remember 1934. Apparently, February 1934 was colder than February 2015. But, February 1934 did not have as many days below freezing.

95. Pretty solid front end thump on the 0z NAM for tomorrow night. A general 3-5″ throughout SNE before the changeover to frz rain.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015030300/namconus_asnow_neus_12.png

    1. Well, my idea of 55-60F many days ago for this event sure is NOT happening.

       It wasnt wise of me to not factor in the snow cover, its depth and its refrigeration effect.

       It will be interesting to see the front end thump on this event. Sure seems to be some different takes on it out there. I’ve seen everything from fairly low amts to these advisory level amounts.

       1. Ah ha. But no one figured in the hair dryer brigade. 😉

96. Wow. 0z NAM is an absolute crush job for the Thursday anafrontal event as well. Hard to get too excited because it is the NAM outside 48 hours and this model has a tendency to do this, but it does have some support from the UKMET and GFS ensembles. In fact there were several 12z GFS ensemble members that had warning snows for much of SNE. Would not be surprised if the 0z GFS follows suit depicting a more significant event as well.

    1. It will be an interesting week. I am very curious to see how long the snow holds on tomorrow night. Thursday’s potential is there, but I get nervous when these events have such sharp cutoffs because the bust potential is high with just a small shift south

    2. 0z NAM for Thursday event:
       http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

       A good 6-10″ for much of SNE

97. 0z NAM total snowfall tomorrow through Thursday is a foot plus for many:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

98. 0z NAM for tomorrow looks to give CT a good dumping as well as Thursday.

99. Sorry very busy evening…

    NAM is too far north and too wet for Thursday.

    But let’s back up a bit.

    Tuesday evening: 2-4 inches all areas except 1-2 over the islands. The heaviest precipitation will be in the form of snow between 8PM and midnight. A changeover line, sleet to rain, will work northward during the late evening. We’ll have to see where mildest air makes it, and that will probably be confined to the coastal areas and far southeast. Elsewhere is where there is a stronger chance for freezing rain. The good news is that once we flip from snow to sleet/ice/rain, the precipitation will be about to become light and spotty. This will limit both ice accretion and flooding issues.

    Wave on the front sends rain/mix back into the region from southwest to northeast Wednesday night. During Thursday morning and early afternoon this flips to snow, but amounts should be under 3 inches in most areas north of the Mass Pike, with a 3-6 event probable to the south. There is some chance this is displaced even a little further south.

    The combination of these 2 events should give Boston a sufficient amount of snow to break the record. I figure about 2.5 inches from the first event and 2.0 inches from the second event are most likely at Logan.

    I’ll be putting a new blog update up soon.

    1. Thanks TK. What about Thursday into Friday night?

       1. Nothing happens on Friday. Dry and cold. The timing is a little different than I thought earlier and the wave for Thursday (described above) basically eliminates the northern stream system that I thought may have materialized for Friday. There may be some cloudiness but likely no precipitation.

100. 00z NAM is just as bad as the previous run. So long NAM (again)!

     1. But it sure is fun to look at 🙂

101. 0z RGEM is not that far off from the NAM, a bit south with the heavier precip but a general 4-10″ across SNE with pockets of 10″+ amounts if my conversions are correct. This is total snow now through Friday:

     http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/02/cc734cba0f12654cdf47f20b957c2208.jpg

102. 0Z GFS pretty much stays the course with 1-3″ up front tomorrow night and a general 4-8″ south of the Pike (least N, most S) on Thursday. This is the snowmap for Thursday:
     http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

103. 0z GFS total snow for both events:
     http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

104. New blog!

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