Quick Update

291 Comments

8:00PM

Pardon the lack of update. Been running around with many things to take care of. “March Madness”. 🙂

SUMMARY…
A cold front settles south of New England and wave of low pressure moves along it tonight. As cold air filters in, precipitation will arrive, mix to snow, and bring a light accumulation to portions of the region, with some moderate amounts possible toward the South Coast. This all exits Thursday morning. Clearing and much colder weather arrives Thursday night, and Friday will be a very cold day for early March but with dry weather. The weekend will still be on the cold side of normal, though not as cold as Friday. A weak system moving through around Saturday night and early Sunday may produce a few snow showers. Early next week another small system may make a run at the region, probably around Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation arrives southwest to northeast as brief rain/snow mix then changes to snow and accumulates a coating to 1 inch southern NH and northern MA, 1 to 3 inches Boston to Worcester southward except 3-6 inches portions of South Coast. Lows in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow early South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-10 inland, 10-15 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers late. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 40.

291 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  3. Sounds good. When will the snow arrive in Boston. I’m going with D-1″ inch for the city.

  4. Just got back from the market where I was looking for a nice Crow to roast as
    I may be eating a bunch of it. We shall see. Waiting on NAM.

    First clue, RAP all of a sudden suppressed again.

    2. Not to worry OS. The record will be broken eventually before the month ends. As TK has been saying, there will be more snow opportunities. Of course, if you believe the TV mets, tonight will be our last chance and spring temps will return for good next week. Pete especially is bullish for mid-50s.

      It is interesting though that we keep “inching” along to get to the record, lol. 😀

  5. What say you, sir, for our fair city? Hoping to not have to garage the cars yet again…first world problems 😉

    1. Not for Boston this time around…could happen one more time later on middle of the month perhaps.

      1. I have to say I was like a little kid when I saw all of those
        runs this afternoon. I was certain. Well, maybe not so much
        now. I can’t stand this on again/off again, maybe, maybe NOT
        bull crap that’s going on. I just want to know one way or the other.
        I don’t want to be teased!!!

        1. I love it when grown ups find the little kids in themselves. In this case I think we can safely say anticipation is not half the joy. Wishing for that record to be broken SOON

      1. It’s funny that comment is under the HAWAII post. 😀

        Beginning to look more like 2-3 inches for Boston. More later.

        1. Perhaps less. NAM wants to give us some rain as it
          paints .25 QPF but gives only 1 inch of Snow. We’ll have to see about that.

          It’s 37 here now and charts say now cold enough aloft for snow. So we shall see when it starts
          if it starts as snow or rain and then change to snow.

              1. Just giving you a hard time. Thanks for the update.
                Not doing anything here and
                the refrigerator is taking effect.
                Down to 36.9

                1. And I’m doing the same to you. Hey you will be happy taking lunch in the city on those warm days. Who needs a record think warm .

  9. Hmmm

    0Z NAM still paints .25 inch qpf for Boston. If we can keep it all snow,
    it’s still enough to eclipse the record. Waiting on GFS and Instant maps
    for snowmap. 😀

  10. Don’t going to Hall Beach (Nunavut) on Thursday, okay folks:

    http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?nu19

    Of course, our cold comes the north and northwest, and it is still VERY cold up there. Until that cold subsides, all bets are off regarding snow chances here down the road this month, unless we head into a sustained zonal pattern which I doubt will happen.

      1. Remember what TK said, prophetically perhaps: “What if we get to 107.8 inches for the season?”

        1. 107.8 inches would do the job. I’d be fine with that.
          What IF we got to 107.5 inches. Now that would be
          hard to take. 😀

  12. HRRR 23Z Total Snowfall as of 9AM tomorrow:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015030423/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    Notice that is about 2 inches for Boston

    Now look at the 0Z run, a run ONE HOUR later for total snow ending 10 AM tomorrow:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015030500/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    That tells the WHOLE story. Practically ZILCH for Boston. That’s all she wrote. The FAT LADY just SANG!! And she sang an UGLY song!!

    WOW! Is all I can say. What a freakin roller coaster.

    NEVER would have survived in this business. I can’t take it!

    What the BLEEP changed that much in one stinken hour????

    Perhaps this is a CLUE:

    Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
    Mike Masco ‏@MascoFromABC2 12m12 minutes ago
    MONSTER 200MPH PLUS jetstream is SCREAMING as it sits over the upper #Midwest tonight! Truly amazing! #Powerhouse

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_TLidyVEAEucJp.png

  16. Month-by-month snowfall @Logan 1995-96 = 107.6″

    November = 4.1″
    December = 24.1″
    January = 39.8″
    February = 15.5″
    March = 16.8″
    April = 7.3″

  17. Hard to argue with TK’s numbers for SNE, they look pretty good to me, although the latest trends are for a slightly more suppressed solution, so the bottom of the ranges may be most common. Probably an inch or so for Boston. Just missing out on a big one. The record will wait awhile longer 🙂

    1. If the HRRR is correct, not sure Boston so much as sees an inch.
      BUT remember the BIG BUST of the HRRR a few days ago???

      SO who the bleep knows what’s going on.

  19. Pretty good dumping of snow for me in CT with that run of the GFS. Will see what happens. Would not surprise if we get less or more than what is projected. This is so close it could go either way.

    1. Nothing coming down here. Put all crews on standby. Radars seem to show we may not see much at all. Just a bit north of the precip.

      Pretty interesting snow/mix line to the south, SE, East, NE of here though.

  23. What’s going on? Radar shows light/moderate snow here but it’s barely flurrying.
    NWS says it’s over by 7am

  25. Cold dry air pushing in from the north has sent the dewpoints crashing. Northern edge of the precip is having a tough time penetrating through the dry air.

    It’s 29 here in Coventry CT. Snow has finally broken through and it is coming down moderately. Roads are covered. Perhaps a half inch so far.

  27. I’m surprised by the temps this morning too. I guess I thought it would be a bit colder. I guess this first (and only ?) wave of precip kind of beat the cold air in. (obviously, it has cooled enough to snow).

    1. And you might not see one. As Mark pointed out above, the dp crash in the “northern” areas have given the weaker part of the precip shield a big obstacle to overcome.

        1. By the time the column saturates, the precip will be out
          of here. 😀

          Radar looks nice. Too bad it’s NOT reaching the ground.

      2. Yeah happy surprised. If I looked solely on radar it looks like I am getting pummeled but nothing.

  29. Days 7-10. I wonder if the EURO is on to something.

    Climatologically, its big picture seems to fit March.

    Cold eastern Canada. Mild northern plains, western great lakes, for that matter, most of the US.

    New England squarely in the temperature contrast btwn the 2.

    Aloft, NW flow. Column apparently cold enough for snow.

    Would have to figure there might be a few disturbances working down thru that NW flow for a few potential light snow events.

    GFS does not show this. Maybe something to watch and see if one model trends more to the other.

  33. They sometimes talk about a model blend when making forecasts.

    In my opinion, for determining how it snows the next few hrs, here’s my blend ….

    Surface obs (specifically dewpoint and rh) : 90%. / how the radar looks : 10%

    Have a good day all.

    1. North Adams Dew point = 9 Degrees!!

      Snowing over most of Connecticut.
      Snowing on Nantucket, MV, Plymouth, Taunton
      And I saw a report awhile ago that snow has started in Canton.

      Will it get in here or not? That is the question.

    2. Forgot one component. LOOK OUT THE WINDOW!
      Yeah I know, it could come under the category Surface Obs, Your Own!

  34. Ok the snow has begun here in JP. Not snowing hard, but it is snowing. Not just spitting, but snowing.

  35. SNOW rapidly picking up intensity. Cars are all covered already.
    Not moderate yet, but beginning to come down decently.

    1. Wow! it’s like someone turned on the SPIGOT!!!
      I’m impressed. Really incredible ramp up of the snow!!!!

          1. No. Sadly the market didn’t have any.
            I’ll have to write to management.

            Are you at the Hospital? Coming down good here.
            About there? You’re about 2-3 miles away.

  37. Visibility keeps fluctuating here. At one moment it bursts and drops to about 3/4 mile and then it goes back up to 1 to 1.5 miles and then poof back down. Really coming down now! 3/4 mile or less.

  38. Have to get ready to go the office. Nice hot shower awaits me.
    Will report when I get to the office. We’ll see how the road conditions are.

    Later have to take Mrs OS to Mass Eye and Ear for an eye appt.
    That should be a hoot. That’s at 3PM. I wonder if it will still be snowing or
    will have long stopped.

  39. One last thing before I go. Looks very Wintry out there! I know latest obs
    have wind at about 320 degrees, but looking out I clearly see an Easterly
    component. Wind looks NNE here. Just an obs.

  40. Been borderline light/moderate snow here for past half hour.

    Roads are greasy. It has covered up the brown snow on the street sides, which is nice.

  41. From JR.:

    “(Sharing moment: Having grown up here it drove me crazy when the weather folks would advertise a big warm-up 5 days away only to have it end up much colder than forecasted. For whatever reason this has always stuck with me so I find myself more conservative with my temperature forecasts in spring than other times of year (as well as other forecasters). I’d rather under promise-over deliver than false advertise.)”

    1. You got more than me…had about a 20 minute flurry that left nothing at all. Only sign of snow was a few flakes on the car weatherstripping.

  43. 1″ so far in Coventry CT but the snow has stopped despite the radar showing that it is snowing moderately above us!

  44. Measured a bit over 2 inches in Mashpee. Snowing hard right now. Everything was just wet when I first looked outside at 5:00 this morning. Roads are awful on the cape this morning!

  47. WHDH did a topic on the record. They did not poll. Short sighted of them not to listen to Pete but then I think that is not unlike their management.

    BZ has a daily talker asking if people want the record. Still a bit short sighted as I do think there is enough interest to generate a poll. But still better approach than WHDH IMHO

    1. And the results are??? OR pending?

      Mrs. OS can’t stand anymore snow and even she wants the record
      broken.

      1. It isn’t a poll. It is just a place to comment on what you want. My daughters cannot stand snow either and they want the record broken.

        Last I checked there were only a few comments and it seemed to be slightly more for no or who thought we already had the records we need.

  48. WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 2m2 minutes ago
    EPIC March snowfall in KY: Elizabethtown 21″ Dawson Springs 21″ Vine Grove 19.2″ Falls of Rough 19″ Mortons Gap 19″ Eddysville 18″ #KYwx

    1. Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 29s30 seconds ago
      2 FOOT Snow Club RT @Fireman18HVFD: From Judge Executive Gary Logsdon of Grayson County, KY reported 24″ of snow, still snowing heavily!

  50. GFS continues to push the warmth further and further away. Other than a brief warm up next week the cold pushes back in with a trough and potential nor’easter after next weekend.

  51. I can’t believe the melting that took place between yesterday and lastnight here in the city it’s like fog came through or somthing . I found $20 that was under a decent pile of snow that melted. I just wish this would happen at home.

  53. It’s REALLY DARK here, BUT NOTHING is happening.
    Echoes on radar suppressed about 20 miles or so to the South.

  54. To demonstrate the DRY AIR at work, I give you 2 radar displays.

    The first is the Base Reflectivity, which basically shows what is hitting the ground

    http://i.imgur.com/k6yJFbZ.png

    The second is the composite Reflectivity, which shows what is aloft and may or may
    not be reaching the ground:

    http://i.imgur.com/TTtsmXT.png

    Those are some decent echoes that are NOT making it to the ground. That
    is some serious DRY AIR just eating up the snow!!!

  55. Had a little over two inches on my car this morning and it is still coming down. Roads weren’t plowed and yet the kids had school. I will never understand how decisions are made about school. I realize it isn’t a lot of snow but the conditions were a lot worse than days when they didn’t have school. Oh well…there are certainly worse things to worry about.

    1. Agreed. Like when they gave kids the day off because it was too cold…then later in the season it was colder but school was on.

      1. I bet that came back on those schools that decided it was to cold outside to go to school in a heated building.

      2. Poor judgement IMHO not cancelling when it was too cold and now in Plymouth. Folks need to think outside the box. Better yet get rid of the box. Amount doesn’t matter. Conditions do.

    2. I think to cancel school right now things would need to be realy bad because most towns now going till the very end of June . I believe pembroke is June 25th as of now. Those decisions on school can be stressful .

  57. What’s interesting this winter is that during our snow blitz it was more or less confined to Southern New England, and really only Eastern Massachusetts in terms of massive totals. Since the blitz ended more than two weeks ago there have been quite a number of major snowstorms across the United States affecting tens of millions of people, but none of them have had a significant on Eastern Massachusetts (perhaps with the exception of the Cape). The rest of the country is in catch-up mode.

    1. What concerns me is that not only do we have an extensive snow pack in
      New England, BUT now there is one well to our SouthWest in places like
      Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, West Viriginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Maryland
      and Parts of Virginia.

      What will that do to our weather?

      1. It will prolong Winter is what it will do. My forecast of a quick break by mid March that I made in November is long wiped out. 😛

        1. 😆

          I was so looking forward to that abrupt end in mid-March.
          Oh well, we’ve lived through all the Springs to this point,
          I guess we can manage to get through another.

          So is it the 17th that concerns you.

          Ordinidarily I would completely DISMISS an event
          depicted at hour 300 on the GFS. BUT when you
          hint at something happening around that time frame
          I stand up and take notice.

          So what’s up?

  60. Swing and a miss with this one. It’s to bad because it looked promising with all the late night models that were posted here.

    1. Yup. Too bad. The afternoon runs were amazing, only to go poof in
      the night. That dry air is eating us alive.

    1. There’s my one lone spotter report from Tolland County CT on there. That 1″ is all the snow we received if you can believe it. The radar has been indicating moderate snow all morning across northern CT, even on the base reflectivity radar, yet it has not reached the ground most of the time, even here! I thought that once it started snowing and we penetrated the column, it would keep snowing but the cold dry air push from the NW has been relentless.

  62. I’m clearly too high on the northern #s. Maybe that would have worked for 10,000 feet elevation. Just too dry here. 🙂

  63. More evidence that the “Winter is over” declarations will be incorrect (as usual).
    Interesting things for mid month. More later.

    1. I never trust anything on the models after 5 days. Its in side that period of time that I look for. Though I am not met and you obliviously would know better than me. 🙂

    2. I got to say TK I am going against you (in a friendly way of course) on this one. Nothing but a feeling, but I am saying winter is more or less spent at this point. You have permission to call me out when we get a blizzard and you are in my yard…HA.

      1. TK’s insight to patterns and possible future events is
        impeccable!! I would NOT go against him on this one!

        Want to go against him on an estimated accumulation for a certain event. Fine. BUT not on this.

    1. That’s showing about 8″ for my location here in CT. Better start snowing hard soon because we have about 7″ to make up this afternoon 🙂

      1. Pretty funny, isn’t it.
        I wonder what it doesn’t get?
        Something in the algorithm is NOT COMPUTING!!!!
        Maybe there is a bug in the dew point module?

  66. Just looked at the CMC ensembles, 2M temperature anomalies. They are BELOW
    average EVERY DAY for the next 16 days!!!

  67. Random thought ………

    I know the focus is on Logan for its snow total …..

    I would be willing to say that the south shore has blown away its snowfall vs 95-96 and may have its all-time season high during the record keeping era.

    We have to be where Logan is in its 2014 – 2015 seasonal total. We haven’t lost any systems to rain and our totals have been comparable, occasionally better on every system.

    Knowing that 95-96 wasn’t anywhere near as cold, I’ll say, without even having lived here that Marshfield was somewhere in the 60-70 inch range that winter. I’ll bet they lost parts of some of that winter’s storms to a change to rain.

    I’d propose that we have blown away 95-96 by 2 to 3 feet of snow.

    1. I don’t know. IF I remember correctly, the South Shore was hit very hard
      by that Winter. I think one storm, Norwell had 28 inches while Logan had
      18 inches. Something like that anyway. So I am not sure you are correct.

      OF course I have NO stats to back that up, so I don’t know for sure.

    2. We have a lot of snow down our way Tom . I tried after work lastnight again to try and remove some snow from my back deck but it’s just way to much.

      1. It really is John. After yesterday’s 40 to 45F, I still have 4 feet of snow on the back deck.

        4 feet !!!!!

        2 to 3 ft from the storms and another 1 to 2 ft having blown off of the roof and onto the deck, for which I am thankful.

    3. This may also be true for Weymouth, Quincy, Hingham, Hull, Cohasset, Scituate, Duxbury and communities west of this area for a good 10-20 miles inland (because of that ocean enhanced system).

      Not so sure Plymouth southward as there was small parts of a few systems this year that had brief changes to rain.

    4. I just checked Providence RI’s snow totals by year and they had 105″ in 95-96 so it seems even southeast areas got in on the action that year.

  69. Sad we didn’t get enough to break the record. But SO happy we were able to make it out of Logan on time this morning. Even if it was just to go to snowy Pittsburgh…

  70. One minor bus accident in Plymouth and many students that couldn’t be picked up due to road conditions. They have cancelled afternoon kindergarten and all evening activities. Again, it wasn’t the amount of snow, it was the conditions.

    2. and the timing ….. I was up at 5:30 am and it wasn’t too bad in Marshfield.

      “heaviest” snow we got was 6:45am to 7:30am. Couldn’t have been timed any worse.

      All the busses were late to the middle school. We held attendance, taking it a good 10 minutes later than usual.

    1. I love Cape Cod snow.

      Always plasters everything, even the houses.

      With that said, I hope power will not be becoming an issue down there, as I can see its pretty close to 32F.

      1. We’ve actually been pretty lucky this year. A lot of the snow hasn’t been cement like it usually is. Until the storm on Monday morning and then again today, it’s heavy!

  73. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 6m6 minutes ago
    Fall River just reached 5″ of snow

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 7m7 minutes ago
    4″ in Taunton and 4.5″ in Plymouth so far. Sharp northern cut-off to the snow area #wcvb

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 9m9 minutes ago
    Very dry air in low levels of atmosphere keeping Boston, The Pike & points north dry #wcvb

  75. Tony Massarotti writes: “Let’s make this clear, Pats fans: if the Patriots are cutting ties with Wilfork so that they can pay both Revis and McCourty, no one should so much as blink. Wilfork was a good Patriot. But he’s not as important as either Revis or McCourty is to this defense anymore.”

    1. I actually think revis walks for more money, he got the ring now the money. Like he needs it. I hope I’m wrong cause I would love to see him back.

      1. Thank you, TK. I haven’t heard too many media mets. Just Eric and Pete and JR and a few other BZ folks. They are seeing a potential pattern change…note the word potential…that might mean a slow down.

    1. Norwood 6 Degrees!

      Have to go all the way to Taunton before dew point is anywhere
      near the air temperature. 😀

      1. The lowest visibility in snow I could find was .75 miles, so
        I don’t know where all of this “HEAVY” snow is??????

    1. Just talked to my sister in law, Sue and am still shaking. She has been flying that Atlanta LaGuardia trip this week and deadheading back to Atlanta. We didn’t know if this was one of her scheduled flights and thank God it was not. Thank God also no one seems to be hurt. SIL’s first question was did they get to the water as LaGuardia has notoriously short runways.

        1. Thanks, Sue. I suspected you had and truly appreciate it. Daughter had just seen the report or I wouldn’t have noticed it until I saw your comment.

  79. Ok, sorry for the football talk but it seems like the patriots are just not willing to pay players what they deserve. They just let go of Wilfork!!11 years he has played for the patriots. Big shoes to fill in. If they do not sign Wilfork would they make enough money for Revis and Mccourty to come back.. If not, our defense is in trouble

    1. I’m not sure how you can say that Matt. They are constrained by the cap. They would have been over the cap and they had to do something. If they end up paying huge dollars to just a few players then what are they left with…certainly not a superbowl team.

  80. Periodic pulses of light snow continue.

    An opinion regarding the Patriots : Smart move. Their lack of player loyalty is part of what has produced the run of these last 15 years, 4 Super Bowl victories and 2 more Super Bowls and a threat to win it all every year. If the run is to continue, its these choices that need to be made. The Celtics re-upped L. Bird, K. McHale and R. Parish when they were around 30 yrs old and what happened was 2 decades of no titles until 2008.

    2. Well said. I do though think this was in some way a way to free up money for revis . But unfortunately I don’t think he will remain loyal to the pats because I think he is going to be looking for one big contract / SHOW ME THE MONEY because I have my ring now thank you.

      1. Just ask him what will it cost and don’t screw it up because we need revis on this team.

  81. Winter weather advisory just switched to a winter storm warning for the cape and southern bristol and plymouth counties. Snow still coming down moderately. About 5″ now in Mashpee and the roads are slippery!

    1. I believe you have a few more hours to go. Good luck and please find a way to keep it there on the cape.

    1. See map above. Quincy is in the Less than 1 inch area.
      Don’t get that at all. Snow is OVER up here.

  84. It’s been snowing at home as well but I believe just enough back where we don’t get the brunt of it. And I’m in western Plymouth county where nothing is up just southern Plymouth county. I could care less what it does there as long as it’s not Boston.

  85. The hard part with 1995-1996 is that snow melted in between storms (or compacted or whatever). I can say for a fact that in Framingham we did not have the amounts of snow then that we do now. I measure it by what I can see of the stone wall that separates levels in our back yard. At no point was the snow deep enough to cover the very top of the wall. I have not seen that wall for weeks this year and no one would know there is one there.

    The piles on our deck are easily 5.5 feet but that is from clearing the roof. Heaven knows when that will melt. And the snow in the yard is four feet on the north side and still up to the bottom window sills.

        1. Thanks! I don’t think it means a whole heck of a lot other than what we really already know. I have a feeling this is going to take a very long time to melt.

  86. Hearing the roads are still quite bad in Plymouth. The high school kids get out at 2 and then the middle and elementary schools follow. Hoping they all get home safe.

  87. Oops my bad. I was looking at the necn app and it said WWA didn’t read the full detains. Sorry for any confusion.

      2. Sorry, that one shows it going out south.
        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=264&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150305+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

        To be followed by this.
        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=372&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150305+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

  89. The trusty accuweather extended forecast is perfect if your looking for a nice and slow melting of our snow pack. Could be gone by April 1st, with the exception of the snow piles.

  90. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 8m8 minutes ago

    Once we get past this evening, no precipitation outside of a few snow showers next 7 days. What the doctor ordered.

  91. Just received this e-mail from Plymouth Public Schools. I went out a little bit ago and the roads are absolutely terrible. Visibility is probably at less than 1/2 mile.

    We have asked our bus company to take extreme caution during the afternoon bus run. Given that, it is likely that your child’s bus may experience considerable delays. Our schools and offices will be staffed until the last bus is in.
    We thank you for your patience and support.

    1. Wow …. what a big change just from Marshfield. We might have an inch or 1.5″ new.

      I think I’m 10 or so miles north.

      1. And not to far over the bridge in Mashpee we have 7″ and it’s still coming down but visability is up to 1 mile. It was .25 miles less than an hour ago. Big gradient with this one.

  92. 12z Euro at 240 hours (Sat 3/15):
    http://i.imgur.com/N18xOKa.jpg

    A different look than the GFS but the idea is the same – Cold Arctic air pushing down from Canada and a juicy storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. The 3/16-3/17 timeframe is definitely going to be a period to watch.

    Between now and then, looks mostly dry with moderating temperatures. Under the strong March sun, I think we are going to start to see significant, but gradual/controlled melting of snowpack which is probably the best case scenario.

      1. http://i.imgur.com/ICPzPh2.jpg

        That storm as shown on that run beyond 240 hrs is probably going to get sheared and shunted out to sea. The position of the high to the north isn’t good whereas the GFS solution allows a closer pass. But just making the point that there are players there around that time and I’m sure the run to run solutions will change many times at 10-12 days out. Something to watch at least – seeing as it sure looks boring up until then!

    2. Yes, the conditions next week are ideal for gradual melting. The melt-off isn’t pretty in some instances. You may recall me mentioning the wrought-iron balcony and railing that collapsed next door to me 10 days ago. Well, the one from the 3rd floor of my building collapsed last night. Had anyone been standing on or near the front steps it would have been catastrophic. We’re talking a very heavy wrought-iron balcony.

    3. We haven’t had much luck with any storm being shown on the models past 5 days. It’s the ones inside that time frame that give use more of a chance at striking us.

    1. Huge disparity here in CT as well. Basically nothing where I am right now in Manchester to 3″ in Marlborough (just southeast of me) to 6″ on the shore.

  95. Incredible gradient just a few miles on the south shore/ Cape. Love New England! DP in Andover is 4 and not a flake all day!

  96. No storm the night of 3/16 please. 7:00 pm flight JFK to Tel Aviv. No snow for the two weeks I’m away either or my wife will be none too pleased…

  97. Could it really be that mid next week is in the 40s …… no snow …… some mid March sunshine ?

    I’m ready to break into celebratory song and dance.

    Sounds like a beach day comparatively to the last 6 weeks.

  98. I know you’ve already discussed it, but I’m pretty impressed with the gradient and spread of snowfall today. Turns out my numbers were too low to the north, which was a gamble because of the dry air. I did not give the surface dryness enough credit.

    My numbers to the south were TOO LOW in some cases. Quite an event.

    As I write this I can see thinning of the overcast to the NW with some orangy sky there. The sun’s position is far enough north now to cast the orange glow further NW than it can do during the darker days of Winter. How I love the natural progression from season to season. It’s a wonder to behold, which is why I never waste time complaining about ANY of it. It’s all great to me. 🙂

    We get a break, though temperatures will be much below average Friday, and below average for the weekend, and near to below average next week.

    But we are not done. The period March 16 to 22 will present more cold and 1 or 2 significant snow threats.

    2. But it does get harder the deeper we get into March is that correct. Almost like we need everything to come together perfectly with no room for error.

      1. Probably not so this year with the deep snow pack.
        Much easier to get snow this March than others, imho.

        1. Also ocean temps to our east are at their coldest so that a due east wind (as long as not too strong) still keeps locals like Boston remaing snow throughout an event.

          Current water temp = 36F

        2. I think the melting of snow is well underway in the city. As I said earlier I was in shock when I saw all the melting that took place just yesterday and overnight it was amazing. Once we loose the snow pack that would take away the refrigerator affect if you will, is that correct. That $20 I found today was under a very large pile I know because I put that pile there and today it was gone .

          1. Even without sun a land warm temps I had a lot of melting today. Was really surprised! Having a dark roof helps.

  99. I don’t know if it is a coincidence or not, but over the years I have noticed that snow events during the month of March in particular seem to have sharp cutoffs falling just short of the Mass. Pike (Boston) northward. What I am inferring is that wx systems in general during this month tend to have sharp cutoffs of precip as opposed to a widespread northern shield.

    TK – Do you agree…or just coincidence? Does season transition play a factor?

  100. TK and OS, I can’t agree with you more. With a deep snow pack, from new England to Kentucky, I can’t help but see a couple of snow events (possibly large) later this month. With warmer spring air, and retreating cold to the North. I think We’ve been getting use to abrupt ends to winter early in march the last few years but darn, there is a ton of snow on the ground with very thick pond, river and lake ice that we haven’t seen in a long time. Could be wrong but thinking that situations as such will line up. Swiss cheese effect!

    1. Like your style. I am wondering if the grand daddy of the entire Winter
      is yet to come. Some of the largest and most powerful Snow storms ever
      have occurred in March. Let us not forget the super storm of 1993.

      We shall see.

        1. Of course there is also April fools storm. Sure wouldn’t be unusual. Wonder how the lead up to those were. I know the 1984 storm had a prequel on the 13th

      3. I agree. Maybe not to the magnitude as such but a lot of energy will be displaced if that makes sense. Cold area verse warming mass.

  101. finally starting to slow down after about 11″. This was a bit of a surprise. I was expecting 3-5 but 11? Wow! I don’t think I have ever sen a snowpack like this on the cape.

  102. Pete…

    “For those who were hoping to break the record, 1) there’s still time (never say never in weather) and 2) there’s always next year…or the year after or 5-10 years after. Yes, I’m saying we could be here again. It’s just the way these patterns seem to be evolving lately. In fact, I predict that within the next 5-10 years we’ll break that record of 107.6 inches….possibly even crush it. Hard to believe, I know, but think about how many snowstorms we had over a foot this year. Now pretend that those storms started in early (rather than late) January. Yeah, that’s how you smash a record.”

  103. Non weather question OS. Does the ice slide off of your rubber roof in one huge slab? It is more than worrisome to see a 25 foot long slab of ice coming off the roof

  104. Harrison Ford was injured in a small plane landing on a golf course in CA. One report said he was the pilot. Another said he was riding in the plane

  105. John…Regarding melting in the city of Boston, I couldn’t disagree with you more. In my neighborhood of Dorchester (and probably most others as well) the piles are just as high as they were since February and the sidewalks still have the same amounts of snow and ice, not to mention their narrowness. I walk these streets every day and nothing has even remotely changed with the exception of the pavements which is little comfort for a walker like me. I have seen NO melting progress at all.

    We neeed persistent temps in the upper 40s-low 50s. A day here and there near 40+ isn’t going to do it!!

    If you just walk in the middle of the street…then it’s ok, until you want to get to a sidewalk to a business or a residence that is poorly cleared or vice versa.

    1. I’m reporting what I see Philip in the long wood medical area. I work outside and have put a lot of this snow where it is and its drastically vanishing. Not saying it’s gone but it took a big hit yesterday.

      1. I absolutely agree that this is as you mentioned not the case in all areas. I can tell you down here on the south shore melting is not happening fast enough as we have so much snow.

  106. I will say that out of all the years that for this March or even April a big snow storm if it were to happen this is the year that I would not be surprised. The snow this week could have or may not be the last snow of the winter. We had three chances this week and they were all duds in my opinion only. Sunday night was easy, Tuesday night was easy and today for Boston was a complete dud but not so from plymouth south as we have heard from both sue and Narto who is reporting 11′ inches on the cape today. Now I saw all along 3-6 for the cape I would say that they defiantly overachieved in this one.

  109. I think we can all admit there has been some melting the last couple days (in areas that didn’t see more snow), I can now just see the car tops driving down my street. Significant melting? No way.

  110. If snow is vanishing up to this point it is more due to snow removal vs. significant melting.

    1. I feel like I need to take pictures of my work area to prove a point lol. And it’s not from snow removal.

      1. Not much melting at all out of the city. Just on sunny ares of major highways. In the “sticks” north of the city, 18-30 on the ground easily and not going anywhere soon. Curious also of how deep the frozen ground is. Guessing 16-20 inches

      2. John, you are in charge of snow and snow removal. You know what is in your area. You do not have to take pics to prove that to me. Different areas …even in the city…will lose snow at different rates. We lost about three inches according to the reindeer antlers on our front lawn. That would be on a very dark day I am not sure got above freezing. The slab of ice on our rubber roof is clearly melting and it is on East facing side.

  111. Pete is touting mid 50s for midweek next week…and probably beyond.

    I suspect the TV mets will be touting that the Cape snow is the last until November and that spring has sprung, etc. Of course we at WHW know the drill. 😉

    What I don’t understand, is why the TV mets never see long range (and sometimes even short range) like TK does. I assume they have access to the same info and have the same education and work experience…not to mention AMS. No doubt the viewing public will be lulled into a false sense of security in the coming days thinking winter is now behind us.

    Pete is already touting on air that he has come to collect his bet from the other members of the weather team that the 1995-96 record will stand…3 large pizzas.

    2. Regardless if it snows again or not nobody can argue the fact that winter is coming to a close its not the beginning now it’s the end . And that alone I love. If you like snow the last six weeks you more than got your fill and than some. For me I’m glad it’s over because I don’t like winter I like warmer weather but I learn to deal with what winter can throw at us. We could have a hot summer this season as last summer I think we got screwed.

  112. Off weather topic:

    Ringling Bros. Barnum & Bailey Circus ending its traditional elephant parade by 2018. 🙁 I remember years ago watching it go through Downtown Crossing and seeing the giant poop left behind along Washington Street. DPW workers quickly cleaned it up soon after the elephants passed. 😀

  113. Pete’s a little insane if he’s sincerely saying on March 5th that the record of `95-96 will definitely stand. I mean, Pete, c’mon. It could get to 50 or 55 next week, like it often does in March. With the exception of the snow piles much of the snow will indeed melt next week. I do believe that. But, to declare that we won’t have any more snow, wow! It suggests naivete on the part of Pete, as if he’s from some other part of the country, like South Carolina where entering spring is a definite, and closing the door on winter is can be officially declared. New England hardly ever rushes into spring. It won’t next week, either. Getting to 50-55 degrees for two days in a row is NOT spring. It’s called a New England tease. It’s been written about for centuries by very famous men and women who knew a thing or two about how fickle spring in New England is. It’s the reason I can’t stand the season. It’s up one day, and down the next. No consistency whatsoever. Gray and raw for 3 days in a row, followed by a glorious sunny day in the 60s, followed by gray and raw for 3 days, followed by a snowstorm, followed by a major melt-off with temps soaring back into the 60s. I never know what to wear. I feel both cold and hot, like I’m menopausal (only I am a man). No, spring is NOT coming next week. But, it’ll feel good for a couple of days to not have to be in full winter garb. Of course, as soon as you’ve grown accustomed to that wind-breaker and a carefree attitude, you’ll get hit by a snowstorm and some serious March cold and wind, almost guaranteed. April tends to be a bit better, but not by much. Raw and uncomfortable define a lot of my April experience. The sun can disappear for days on end, which is depressing. Sure, the flowers look great. But often you don’t get to enjoy them as you’re walking through puddles and mud.

    1. Was that a critique of the forecast or or Pete. Sorry Joshua. I don’t think any one is insane. Nor their opinions. I’m close to giving up on here

      1. I like Pete. Of course, I’m not saying he’s an insane person. I just think he’s a little crazy to declare on March 5th that there’s not going to be any more snow. I don’t think it’s a responsible thing to say as a professional met. Personally, I think the snow chances are dwindling. But, it’s too early to be definite.

        1. You are correct. And you were calling the statement insane, not the guy. 😉

          At least Pete did qualify it by saying “never say never”.

        2. Joshua I like you a ton and your comment caught me totally of guard as it is not like you. Your opinions differ often but they give a view that is needed because one point of view is worthless IMHO. Calling Pete insane and then changing it to just a little crazy isn’t a whole lot of better. I don’t get the obsession with Pete here. Eric alluded to the same thing. I don’t Even get the obsession with criticizing everyone lately. Clearly something I have to figure out. Wording is hard. Coastal tried to point that out the other day and said it well. It is worth rereading.

      3. Why are you so sensitive about critique? So what if he disagrees with him and why are mets opinions untouchable? I have been saying the same thing Pete has for days and I have gotten some slack for it and no one sticks up for me (not that I care).

        1. Actually the slack for you and others is what is bothering me. I don’t get the need to disrespect opinions and it seems that is happening on a regular basis.

  115. Just to be clear, and this is really just Weather 101.
    Snow chances dwindle at this time of year due to climatology.
    Snow chances do not vanish because as you know, the pattern can support snow events more in some years than others. We obviously saw both extremes this Winter, with the “hardly-any” followed by the “how can it snow this much this quickly?” … Are we going to see more Winters like this? Eventually. As a scientist and a statistician, I would not bank on a Winter of this magnitude happening any time soon.

    50s potential next week meaning that the snow threat for the season is over? Try again.

    It was in the 60s the day before the April Fools snowstorm got underway. 😉

  116. If it were not for this blog, I would probably be thinking winter is pretty much over starting next week as well. TK is giving all of us here insight that the TV mets are not, for whatever reason. I don’t know the media business, but I suspect that TK has more time and opportunity to look deeper into the long range than the TV mets due to time constraints in preparing their on-air forecasts. Just my opinion.

    Thanks TK…as always! 🙂

    1. Thank you! Very nice of you.

      Amazingly enough, the snow still lingers along the South Coast and over Cape Cod. It just won’t stop there.

  117. Last year everyone called winter over in march. I don’t know how many times TK said there is a potential for snow through April. This year if anyone breathes an opinion that maybe snow will stop, everyone jumps on him. John works in the longwood area. You and I might disagree with his opinion in other areas but he knows the longwood area. He says its melting there, then it is melting there. It is not an opinion. Someone says it is sleeting at their house then it damned well is sleeting there is no questioning I love snow but if this is what it does to people I am learning to hate it.

  118. The 1984 storm was Thursday March 29.
    I was in 7th period typing class (yes we had a full day of school) and a barrage of cloud-to-ground lightning hit northeast Woburn and Reading including hitting a couple houses. When I left school I was able to lean almost 45 degrees into the wind and stay up. We had about a foot of snow in just over 6 hours here.

    New blog has been posted.

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