The Dries Of March

104 Comments

10:53PM

SUMMARY…
In a season of unforgettable Winter events, add another. This is the sharp edge snow event of Thursday in which a strung-out snowfall took place in southeastern New England. Snow amounts were only traces in the immediate Boston area with nothing to the north, but heading south amounts build quickly to around 6 inches in Plymouth to around a foot on parts of Cape Cod. As of 10PM Thursday, snow continues to fall on parts of the Cape. But overnight it finally clears in all areas with very cold air pushing in. This will lead to a bright but very cold Friday, another day of well below average temperatures. Moderation will occur this weekend, and even more next week, as temperatures get to near to below average for a few days. Deep snow cover will continues to modify warm-ups for some time, none of them reaching their bare-ground potential. What will be absent will be significant storm threats with only minor systems traversing the area.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-15 from the outlying areas to Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, light variable afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

104 thoughts on “The Dries Of March”

    1. Yup. And it’s funny because I was fiddling with the comment settings and it shouldn’t have been possible. I guess that didn’t work. 😛

    2. TK posted about that March 1984 storm. I remember it well. Wet heavy snow…lots of wind. I was working on Congress St at the time (in the Russia Wharf Building right at the Tea Party Ship). At one point during the storm the Tea Party ship (or it’s attached dock..can’t remember which) broke away from the main mooring and heading for the parking lot that was next to my building. Also a large houseboat that had been converted into offices nearby partially sank during that storm.

      1. That was a very potent storm. Explosive deepening. People tend to think these “explosive deepening” storms are a fairly new phenomenon. Not the case whatsoever. They are scattered throughout weather history.

        1. I also remember the storm of April 82 (April 6 I think). Much colder storm…powder snow and temps around 20 iirc. I was living on Beacon Hill at the time and wondering WTF as I was walking my dog. 4 days or so I was opening day at Fenway where for the second time (on an opening day) they were trying to try the outfield with helicopters. They did the same thing back in either 74 or 75…I was there for that one too 🙂

          1. We also had a full day of school on Tuesday April 6 1982. 16 inches of powder fluff snow here in Woburn with big drifts. The next day, it was in the teens all day with very low wind chills. Just 4 days after that, which was Easter Sunday, all the snow was gone.

  2. 00z GFS already hinting at a potential major storm for mid month that may include snow.

    I also think the 50s need to come out of those 7-day forecasts on TV. Not happening.

    1. By then it will be broken. I thought for sure it might go down today but the dry air had other ideas.

  4. This is really a response to some of Vickki’s previous comments regarding the “record controversy.” One thing that is so different now than in 95-96 regarding just about everything is the influence of social media. Back then there wasn’t twitter, face book, blogs etc to perpetuate “the conversation” literally 24/7 . Now not only does “the conversation” never stop but anyone can respond instantly to any thought, sentiment or emotion often without pause. What used to be coffee shop dialogue now goes on endlessly leading to maybe the level of vituperence we see today? Just a thought…

  6. A quick look at a national radar as of 6am and its pretty difficult to find a radar echo anywhere.

  7. Sun glasses today !

    Love these March days with sunshine.

    42 degree sun angle being reflected by all this snow.

    Around early afternoon, it will be 25F and yet the inside of your car, if its in the sun, will be nice and warm.

  8. Thanks TK. First week back at work in 7 months and it’s taken a lot out of me. But very happy to be back with human interaction 🙂 Charlie must not be happy with all the snow down there.

  11. Even though its for NH and Maine, there is a nice hydrologic update currently on the Taunton NWS webpage, if anyone is interested.

  12. Good morning. YAWN…. Time to relax and take a break from all of this
    snow and snow talk. 😀
    Well maybe not from the talk.
    Hopefully, with the bit milder weather the next week or so and the HIGH sun
    angle, roofs will become clear of snow and ice dams will be gone!
    With the horror stories I have heard, we have been blessed at the OS household.
    One minor leak in a pantry. A little killz and paint and it will be all set.

    Vicki, I saw a question from the previous blog. Sorry never had a chance to answer.
    Re: Our Rubber Membrane Roofs. We have three (3) of them, one tiny, one small and
    one very large and expansive.

    We had the snow removed twice on them. They are totally bare. No snow whatsoever
    on them. The 2 smaller ones are flat, and the large one has a very slight slope, but
    basically flat. Ice/snow has never flowed off of those roofs. On occasion
    tons of snow slides from the pitched roof onto the flat roofs.

    The one leak we had developed from an ice dam in a corner right where the pitched
    roof meets the flat roof. There is a gutter on the pitched roof that ends
    right where the flat roof begins and we had a huge dam there that caused the problem.
    When snow was removed the 2nd time, we had them remove that dam and that
    fixed the problem immediately.

  13. A very quiet March day on the U.S. weather map.

    I apologize if I offended anyone with my comment on Pete B. I’m in favor of as much civility as possible on this blog and others. I don’t think he’s crazy. But, I do think his declaring the rest of March snow-free on March 5th (!) is irresponsible. Mets have a job to do. To inform the public as objectively as possible. I do understand that most people do not like snow and cold, and are sick of it by now. So, hearing soothing words about no more snow and cold will make them happy. My issue is that it’s the met’s job to stay grounded. Don’t get overenthusiastic. Don’t hype. Don’t underplay, either. Always put any model or forecast into context. In this case, the context is New England. Pete’s a smart man. He knows that 2012 was an anomaly. Most springs around here are very fickle. March, in particular, is generally not spring-like at all. I’d prefer that he’d say that he thinks his prediction of not breaking the record will verify. He sees warmer days ahead. But, he also sees some cold and possible snow in the long-range models. At this point, he can remind the audience that it’s March, it’s Boston, and getting out of the trough of winter will not be easy because it hardly ever is.

    1. Very well stated and I agree 100%!

      March in New England is generally brutal. It is the rare month
      that is beautiful, sunny and milder.

  14. re: Storm chances in the St. Patrick’s Day time frame.

    GFS continues to hint at something for sure. Latest 6Z run has it suppressed somewhat in response to a Gargantuan Arctic High just to our North. Classic. Arctic air to our North, Gulf Warmth and moisture to our South. It’s just way too far out there to remotely have a clue to know what will happen. Suffice it to say that there is a possibility out there and with the parameters in play, it “could” be quite substantial.
    “could” even be colossal. “could” also slide out South of us. Just waaaaay to early to know.

    But clearly, something to keep and eye on for sure.

    AND the MOST worrisome part of it all is TK’s concern!!! That has my attention!!!

  15. One more thing for now….
    WOW!! Was that ever CLOSE yesterday. I think that may have been the sharpest
    snow gradient I have ever seen!

    What fell down around Taunton, I was certain would be in the Boston area.
    I was clearly wrong! (John sorry I couldn’t find a Crow at the market and I don’t own a gun nor ever will, to shoot one. I wouldn’t anyway!)
    But, it wasn’t a miss by much. AMAZING!!!

  18. EPO: Eastern Pacific Oscillation – A dipole pattern similar to the NAO in the Atlantic, but located in the eastern Pacific. There is a tendency for heights/pressures/temperatures to be higher to the north and lower to the south in the negative phase and lower to the north and higher to the south in the positive phase. The negative phase corresponds to widespread cooling over central and eastern North America and the positive phase to warming.

    Here is the latest graph of the EPO. It clearly shows the cold for today, AND
    the projected cold for around or about St. Patrick’s Day.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_a7Z5sU8AM1EVd.png

    1. The EPO is a major player and will have a lot to do with what happens in the March 15-22 time frame.

  19. Good example of stronger sun. 20 degrees below average today. Chilly but didn’t feel horrendously cold. Lack of wind helps too.

    1. I’m sitting in my car right now having coffee. Heat is off. Greenhouse effect. 🙂

  23. Drove through Rhode Island this morning down to Newport. Don’t think Charlie is putting lime down next week..or the week after that.

    I want your warmup Charlie but I think it’s gonna be a while still.

    1. Still Winter….

      But of course Winter was “over” after yesterday’s event because a few days ago the models showed moderating temps next week. 🙂

  25. Winter is still in full swing..March can be a real tough month. At least we will have some pretty significant melting for the next week.

  26. I wasn’t going to post a map, but was going to comment on the ongoing
    evolution of something in the 3/15-3/22 timeframe as TK uses.

    12Z GFS now has a system that lasts for the better part of 4 days, 3/16-3/18.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    Foolish to post a Snow map at this juncture. Suffice to say that it is possible
    it could be quite significant. BUT it is a long way out there.

    We will continue to monitor.

    Would also like to see some support from the Euro and CMC.

    1. We have been waiting for “support” from those 2 models all winter. We have done quite well without them.

  27. I think its funny you guys looking out what well over a week away.
    Enjoy a storm free weekend and dont worry about what may or may not
    happen 10 days down the road.

    1. We always worry about storms. We’re obsessed by them. “You’re preoccupied by weather,” my father used to tell me, 30-35 years ago. I’d answer, “yeah, Dad, I am … better than being preoccupied by drugs, fast cars, and women …” Well, 30 years hence I can say that I like a fast car now and then. And an occasional preoccupation with a woman is a healthy thing.

  29. I think it’s gotten to the point where it’s more about “who’ll have the last laugh” than any potential storm?

  30. OS, while it’s good that tornado season hasn’t begun yet. The season will inevitably come to the battleground states and may actually be stronger this year as the clash between cold and warm air will likely be intense.

    Regarding weather in our part of the world, it’s far too early to predict with any accuracy a storm that could happen 7-10 days from now, but the clash between cold and warm air may play into it. March is known for volatility, and sometimes can produce a real doozy. Usually, the coast is hit with a mixed bag of precipitation while the significant snow-falls occur inland, with the mountains sometimes getting their largest snow-falls of the season in March. But, of course we know that the coast can also be in the bull’s eye of a storm’s snow wrath in late winter, early spring. Still, the very best example of this, in my view, was April 1, 1997.

    1. For sure. You may be correct about the tornadoes, but if it is less now,
      that’s not a bad thing.

      re: March Snow storms
      It has already been discussed, but for this March, perhaps more than ever,
      the Coast could easily be in the BULLS EYE for a big snow event.

      We shall see.

      And not for Nothing, but SIGNIFICANT COLD and SIGNIFICANT Warmth and Moisture Seem to be lining up for a battle Royal about 7-10 days from now.

      It’s just a matter of where it all sets up. New England is likely to be in
      it’s path in some form or other.

  31. If the St. Patrick’s Day Parade in Southie is postponed this year, it wouldn’t be the first time. It happened in March 1956. From what old-timers have told me over the years, that particular March was very snowy indeed. If I am not mistaken, Bob Copeland was a meteorology student at Northeastern University at the time.

    2. It can’t be postponed Philip they already had a meeting this week on it. It is still on the 15th but the parade route I believe was shortened and changed. I crack up thinking about this because they have how long to prepare the route ? Come on get the bob cat going and move it. It’s bit that hard.

      2. Well no way the parade takes place if 1-2 feet of snow falls the day before or on that date. I would be somewhat shocked if it were to be cancelled altogether should those scenarios occur. There are many more days left in this month/year if I am not mistaken. 😉

        1. I’m talking about right now not what if it snows. There was talk about delaying it on the 15th cause of all the snow there now but they said there is no way that could happen as flights and rooms booked . That’s why the route was changed. It starts at broadway now and ends at the Farragut house over there by st.

    3. No Way Bob Copeland was a Meteorology student at NorthEastern as
      Northeastern had no such program.

      My understanding was that Bob Copeland was studying electrical engineering
      at Northeastern and obtained an advanced degree in meteorology from MIT.

      Yes, this is from his website:

      As I thought about college. I concentrated on math, science, and engineering at Northeastern and then meteorology at MIT, shunning most “liberal arts” courses. Thanks to Don Kent at WBZ-TV, I was fortunate enough to land my first broadcast job right out of MIT, then spent most of my adult life as a television meteorologist. I was earning a living at something I loved.

      Link:

      http://www.bobcopelandart.com/about.html

      Regarding March 1956, indeed it was snowy. I can attest to that.
      3 Major storms, one after the other after the other.

      1. Btw,

        When Bob Copeland wanted to, he was probably the best
        meteorologist to ever walk the planet. When I say when he wanted to, I mean that there were times when it was obvious he
        just didn’t put the necessary effort into a forecast. Call it what you will, but it was there. When he put the effort in, there likely
        was NONE better. Not then and not now. He was simply the best!

  32. The sun angle might be getting higher but it still feels mid-winter COLD out there today, brrrr. If there’s any melting going on out there today I’m not seeing it. No water on the roads or anything. Ice in my driveway with full sun is still rock solid.

    1. I absolutely agree with you Ace. Even in full sunshine those areas which look like “melting” is taking place, it is still solid ice…won’t budge even with an ice chipper.

      1. I totally and completely disagree.
        I was out at lunch with ONLY a light jacket on.
        That sun is HOT. I was very comfortable.
        Did not even notice the cold in the slightest.
        BEAUTIFUL day out there!!

        1. BTW, IF we were to add some serious wind, then it
          would be a different story. Lack of wind is a major contributing factor to the comfort level.

  33. I got back from London last night. 50 degrees never felt so warm.

    On February 25th I wrote about how we had been seeing subtle changes in the pattern and to also remember the unique nature of how narrow a band of big snows this had been. Remember areas not to far to south and west had not experienced the mass accumulations metro Boston had received.

    I noted what I believe would be shift south and south east to where the best snow accumulations may start to become more present. This was due to 3 things. An easing of the western ridge, a slight shift east of a prevailing Southern / Gulf high/ridge, and a more active southern stream that would keep our weather active but present sharp cutoffs to its northern movement in part due to the prevailing 500mb winds to our west.

    The pattern of every storm over performing in the immediate Boston metro area would also come to in an end, and in reality the last 4 storms have under-preformed in Boston with narrow bands of meet or exceed expectations to our south or south east.

    Best example of this is during the first 15 days of February Boston received 57 inches of snow. During the 20 days since Boston has received 10″ of snow. So yes an active pattern, but one that has eased.

    Models continue to have their issues. You remember how far north and over amplified and wet the ECMWF was for Wednesday? How about the NAM this past Sunday. This was not the best week for the GFS either.

    I get that everyone want to see the record broken and it will be, but on February 1st TK and I both noted that there could be a significant storm around the 15th of February and after that the pattern would evolve. I was so shell shocked but what I had seen the previous 20 days that when the storm passed, I didn’t recognize or want to believe that indeed that system would be ushering in slowly evolving changes. More changes will come. Yes there will be bouts where the western ridge strengthens, but they will be short lived because as the Gulf high continues to slowly trend east and an easing of the eastern trough, there will be a transition to a more frequent springtime zonal flow, before ultimately ending up with a present south east ridge.

    1. Welcome back! Do you concur with TK about a winter storm threat(s) in the 3/15-3/22 time frame?

      1. I learned long ago not go to far out a limb in March in New England. There are two periods where conditions may be more conducive to potential disturbed weather one in about 8-10 days and again in about 15-16 days. I wouldn’t go any further than that and both of those time periods have equal or better chances of being insignificant as they do significant.

  34. 12Z Euro takes a system from the mid West and slides it out just underneath
    SNE. Not very strong. I have no idea what kind of qpf it wants to generate.

    BUT a Beginning of sorts of some kind of consensus that something may happen
    then.

  35. 12z Euro grazes the south coast with some rain on Tuesday and then does agree with the GFS about a larger storm forming over the Gulf next weekend (around 3/15) and moving north up the Appalachians. It is an Apps runner though and would be a rainorama for us. Does not keep the cold high in place to the north of us like the GFS does. The High retreats into the Atlantic allowing the storm and milder air to stream up here.

    Something is definitely brewing around that time frame – question will be how much cold air there will be to work with.

  36. OS, you are correct in that the center of the low actually forms over the Ohio River and slides more northeasterly to a point south of LI. That actual moisture is drawn north and streams north up the Appalachians. Not really a true “apps runner” as I said. But nonetheless it is a warmer rainy solution for SNE.

      1. Notice the 32F lines on the Euro – pretty much the entire country is above freezing at that time. Much warmer solution than the GFS.

      2. Thank you Mark. Sure looks different on that map, compared
        to Instant Weather maps.

        Looking at the projected EPO and factoring in what TK
        says and factoring in the performance of the GFS this Winter,
        I would heavily LEAN towards an eventual COLD solution on this.

        For now, we know that something is likely to be happening.

        It will be fund to watch it unfold.

  37. OS…Thanks for the info on Bob Copeland. I was at least partially right about him being a Northeastern student at the time…just the wrong major. 😉

    I only vaguely remember him on WBZ. IIRC he would be on weekends while Don Kent was weekdays, correct? I really remember him from his Ch. 5 days mostly weekday mornings. Also Bob Copeland helped Mark Rosenthal get his career going much like Don Kent helped Barry early on.

    Those were the days! 😀

    1. Oh to be true. I remember him well from Both Stations. I presume he did
      weekends on channel 4.

      A couple of classics I remember from him (not sure what station at the time).
      There was a storm coming. Channel 5 and Channel 7 called for an ALL rain
      storm. Bob Copeland stuck to his guns and called for a major snow storm.
      Care to guess what happened? You guessed it, a major snow storm.

      Another time, he was on ch 5, it was the early 80s or so.
      Other mets called for a miss with the system heading harmlessly out to sea.
      Mr. Copeland on the other hand, perused his upper air charts and used
      his expert training and deduced that the system would negatively tilt and
      affect the area. Guess what? Boston received a foot of snow.

      This guy was unbelievable!

    1. That is an awesome satellite shot.

      We all know that kind of snow cover at this time of year WILL affect
      the weather. Nice refrigerator out there.

  40. Regarding March 1956, my great aunt spent the night at the fire station in Brookline Village. The next morning she literally had to walk back home to Roxbury since the MTA was shut down. I suspect though that public transit returned a lot sooner than this previous episode last month.

    MTA = Massachusetts Transportation Authority 1947-1964

      1. Sure is. See it regularly. Went by it yesterday and watched
        an engine leave the station. It’s right on Rt. 9.

    1. For those of you are into this kind of stuff. More GFS updates coming March 24th. Note, no Higher Resolution updates. The details from the NCEP MDL release are below.

      In response to the Global Forecast System (GFS) model upgrade that was implemented in January 2015, MDL has performed a refresh of the GFS system for the warm season utilizing all parallel and retrospective data that was made available by EMC. This GFS refresh includes:
      Updated warm season equations for temperature, dewpoint, daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature, wind speed and direction for stations in the short-range and extended-range output.
      To improve the calibration for the cool season, equations for temperature, dewpoint, daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature were updated with three additional months of cool season data added to the training sample.

      Updated cool and warm season equations for the probability of a thunderstorm and conditional probability of a severe thunderstorm for the CONUS. Thunderstorm guidance for Alaska was not updated with this refresh.
      Updated warm season equations for probability of precipitation occurrence (PoPO) and probability of precipitation occurrence in a 3-h period (PoPO3). Guidance for PoPO/PoPO3 is included in the BUFR messages and used as input to Gridded MOS.
      Updated warm season equations for maximum and minimum temperature at COOP sites.
      Guidance for Mesonet sites has also been updated for both cool and warm seasons. The refreshed elements for Mesonets include temperature, dewpoint, daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature, wind speed and wind direction. Mesonet guidance is used in the River Forecast Center SHEF message and also influences the Gridded analysis for temperature and wind. New Mesonet sites are not being added to the GFS analysis at this time.

      In addition, a number of COOP and Mesonet stations which previously had guidance for maximum and minimum temperature will now have missing guidance. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient observations to develop equations. Guidance for new COOP and Mesonet sites will be added with a future implementation

  42. So I suppose as a meteorologist I’m not supposed to look out more than “a few days” to try to figure out upcoming patterns? Oops. My bad. 😛

      1. Wasn’t you. This was a half joking response to something from much much earlier. 😀

        Went back to re-read comments. I see which comment you thought I was referring to. No not at all. You basically feel comfortable going out about as far as I do, so we are in agreement there. And the volatility of March / April make it more risky than the dead of Winter.

  44. JMA… Not sure how much weather you’ve been able to look at regarding the upcoming pattern. When/if you have time I’d love to hear your thoughts on a potential (or lack of) for a storm somewhere mid month (around the Ides or shortly after).

  45. Made it through another week. Day about done.

    Looking forward to going out for dinner and a night of cards (kitty whist)
    with friends.

    May be able to check back in around midnight or so.

    I wonder what the 0Z runs will show?
    I shutter to think.

  46. Looking at the charts ahead, it sure looks like we have the old
    SPLIT JET working.

    That possible storm in the 3/15-3/22 time frame we have been discussing
    will be operating on the split jet OR at least it looks that way to me.

    Southern stream supplies the juice while the Northern stream supplies the cold.
    Early indications are that it would be primarily a Southern stream storm bumping
    into Arctic COLD supplied by the Northern Stream. There does not “appear”
    to be phasing at this juncture.

    Am I reading things correctly? OR am I out to lunch and missing something.

    In the old days, I remember mets talking about how potentially Stormy it
    can get under a split jet. We shall see. 😀

    1. You’re very much on the right track. We may need to rely on cold air “from above” with these late-season systems.

  48. PNA and NAO around March 16th as currently projected, look to be somewhat similar to what they’ve been the last many weeks. The PNA has been different the last few days.

    It’s the AO, arctic oscillation, that I think is the wild card. Very positive phase, cold air in retreat. But, projected to head more towards neutral.

    So, will the cold air be able to sink southward in Canada in time during mid March, and arrive back in New England before storminess might return ?

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