10:42AM
8 day forecast today. It’s March 8. And 8 is my lucky number. What more reason do we need?
SUMMARY…
Weak frontal system moving through today brings clouds and some showers of snow and possibly rain through mid afternoon then drier air clears things out later. High pressure arrives tonight through Monday with fair but chilly weather as our deep snow cover continues to modify the air. A storm system will pass south of the region late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing lots of clouds and a slight chance of some light rain to southern areas as the air will be relatively mild as compared to recently, but still on the cool side of normal. The bigger warm-up you may have heard advertised via some media outlets is not going to come to be. Patience required. A fresh shot of cold air arrives Thursday as high pressure builds in and brings fair weather into Friday. Low pressure approaches from the south while high pressure re-strengthens north of the region by next weekend and this will be a set-up for a probable storm including snow, ice, and rain. Obviously way too early for details on this potential system, but it should give Boston at least a 50/50 shot at breaking the all time seasonal snowfall record.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with passing snow showers, possibly mixed with rain. Brief moderate snow is possible. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY LATE DAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures cool through 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10s inland valleys, 20-25 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-45. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of light rain south early. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain. Temps rise 30 to 40.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/ice/snow. Temps fall 40 to 30.
Thanks TK !
Put this on the old blog, but wanted to re-post here. When is all this snow going to melt?
Just got back from a week in Florida. While clearly there has been some melting, I cannot believe how much snow we still have in our yard, lining the driveway, etc. Snow melts slowly from our yards, so I donβt expect to see grass until the last week of March. And, if we get another storm or two, mid-April or later will be first grass day. The spring soccer season is going to be a nightmare!
It’s going to take a long time. How long exactly will somewhat depend on not only the pattern upcoming, which will be colder than normal for the foreseeable future, but also the additional snow that falls. And there will be some.
Repost of Todayβs AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What is the word for a solid turning into a gas?
A. Melting
B. Evaporation
C. Transformation
D. Sublimation
Yes, this is weather related. Answer later today.
D.
I will say D as well.
Good morning. Guess I slept in today, plus there is an extra hour in there. π
I hear reports of flakes around, but I don’t see any here at the moment.
Re: Next weekend.
GFS went kind of topsy-Turvy with the 18z and 0z runs yeterday,
creating an inside runner/lakes cutter type system.
More back on tack with coastal at 6z, although in a Much weaker state.
CMC has it suppressed, while Euro has it stronger, however with RAIN in SNE
and the SNOW up North as it has a similar set up as it showed a couple of days ago, with low in Ohio or so and then cutting just underneath us, but drawing too much
warmth from the South at least at 850mb and perhaps other levels.
So, the jury is out while this thing evolves. It is truly up in the air.
12Z GFS coming out now. One of the fall outs of DST!!!! I Hate it!
We now have flakes with the temperature at 39.9! π
BIG fluffy ones.
Looks really interesting now, even though it’s just a snow shower.
Feathers floating down. Some of them are 2 inches across.
Still snowing and termometer just popped to
41.1
There ya go, it can SNOW at 40!
Here comes and sun and we’re done.
Up to 41
Serious question.
When we have a split jet like shown below at 200MB, how do the models handle
the track of a storm system moving up in the stream from the South????
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=087
Seems that there would be much wiggle room as it gets farther North.
It Can’t bust through the Lakes because of that strong Northern stream.
How far North does it come before it is forced to the East?
Tricky, tricky, tricky.
For Friday AM, GFS has 200MB winds Screaming out of the WNW over us at
150 knots or 173 mph!!
200MB at 9Z Friday. Now it is approaching 200 KNOTs!!!!
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=117
With this at the surface. What will it do, what will it do?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=117
We have a new player, a northern stream
clipper. Let’s see how this gums up the works.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=132
GFS finally forces a coastal off of the Del-Marva.
Rain/Snow line gets very close to Boston. Certainly snow to the North
and Rain to the South.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=162
Passes Boston
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=165
Still a long way out. Much will change. I just like to watch
a run come out to see all of the players.
Fascinating stuff.
Slowly beginning to look like NOT a significant snow event
for the Boston Area, More so for far N&W and Up North.
Again, things can and will change. Still needs to be watched.
But I would be leaning away from a big snow event right now.
“Hopefully” snow enough up front to break the record.
My hope is that the record is broken by at least a few inches. What is interesting is that the current record (107.6″=1995-96) literally smashed the old one (96.3″=1993-94). Will it be as dramatic?
It depends on too many factors to list.
If everything comes together just right, it “could” be smashed
next weekend. It’s more likely that we just barely eeck out the record
and it also “could” be all rain here as well. Just too early to know.
All or even mostly rain would not be good for my basement.
Or anyone else. I agree.
Make it a miss, or keep it snow.
It really gets juiced up. Around 2 inches qpf for Boston.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030812&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=201
I must say, looking at the rest of that GFS run, it has the ssystem
explode with some really juicy qpf. It would not take much
of a wiggle to get the heavy SNOW into Boston. As depicted,
it stays N&W, but Not by all that much.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030812&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=171
Probably looking at a long-duration system, front-end, and back-end snow at least.
Appears likely.
What % chance do you give Boston Getting
ALL SNOW??
0%, 10%, 25%, 33%, 50%?
I like the beat so I’ll give it a 98!
My guess and that’s about what it is.
25% π
25% easily.
Now you’re cooking.
Perhaps this run of the GFS has over cooked the qpf, but 2 inches
is a SLUG of juice. I shutter to think IF that were all snow.
I know ratios wouldn’t be the 12-15:1 we have seen, but even at 10:1 or 8:1 still quite substantial.
It just shows you the potential trouble that late Winter / early Spring storms can have.
If I understand correctly, high pressure will be to our north regardless…just a matter of positioning. So cold air will not be an issue per se.
or rather…lack of cold air per se.
It is a near by source for sure.
The problem as I see it: It is so far to our West for so long
before a coastal is forced, that warming aloft takes place.
Plus it takes so long, the core of the Cold has had time to slip to
the East. That’s NOT to say we couldn’t end up with a whopper snow
storm, it’s just that factors point to it not. NEEDS to be monitored for sure.
When we have Gulf Juice and Arctic Cold, can’t mess around as anything
is possible.
I had mentioned last week that I believe everything needs to come
Together perfectly.
True of any time of year with any system.
π
This system is a week away.
Due to start Friday night. So it’s more like
5 or 5 1/2 days out. Getting in range to be handled
pretty well by the models.
Looks like a line of Snow squalls developing
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml
snow flurry
My hope is that the T starts making serious plans in the coming days this week so that yet another shutdown doesn’t happen again. I know it is on a weekend, but there are still those who have to work…myself included. I have to work at least Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday. I am now already getting the feeling double-digit snowfall where it stays all snow or even a mix. Is that very possible?
In theory they should not get as greatly impacted because we’re beyond the super cold that accompanied many of the storms and hung around between them as well. Only 2 days have seen above normal temperatures in the last month plus. Wednesday February 4, and Wednesday March 4.
MYTH: You need Arctic air in March to snow.
FACT: Though a chilly high pressure area to the north HELPS, it is not necessary, as you are in prime dynamic cooling season. Plenty of cold air upstairs. As long as you don’t have strong warm advection there, all you need is precipitation and a marginal temperature profile to start.
Well stated chief. May I give an example.
This was for Mid-April sometime during the 60s.
It was a beautiful April day where the temperature responded to the
warm sunshine (I say responded, because it was clearly still COLD above)
and stood at 64 degrees mid afternoon as high cloudiness
was thickening.
By 10 PM that evening it was snowing like hell.
There is a perfect example of Dynamic Cooling.
Absosmurfly!
I completely forgot about our old friend…dynamic cooling, and not to mention the SNE deep snowcover assuming there will be much left by next weekend.
heavy duty squall for the past 10-15. Near white-out.
Yup, saw that one coming. How much accumulation or was it still
a tad warm?
It seems like some here think this snow next weekend is a locked in situation, it’s not. A lot can change in a week.
Who said the snow was locked in??? No One.
TK said snow to rain back to snow.
The discussion was the Possibility of all snow and what were the
chances.
Never mind. Just enjoy the nice temps out there now .
And it may not snow at all.
Huh?
Nobody said that. I’m using meteorological analysis to come up with a hypothesis. π
Getting Dark here.
40.1 degrees, basically same cloud cover as this morning, mostly cloudy with sunny breaks from time to time.
Ok. I’m crossing my fingers that funerals are done for the year. My husband and I lost both our grandmothers within the span of three weeks. Tough time of the season to travel, I’ll tell ya! At least we got to come together as a family.
Now when will we break that damn record? It’s getting annoying!!!
It’s sad when those events are what often bring families together but that is so often the case these days. Sorry for all that you have had to go through. It’s been a rough start to 2015 for many. Let’s hope for better days ahead!
DS I am also very sorry for the loss of your grandmothers. Hugs going your way.
Snow shower arrives here at 1:25PM. Light but borderline moderate so far – fairly large flakes which make it look a little heavier. Visibility is dropping though. Let’s see if we get to official moderate intensity.
Barely moderate. Stopped, then a second snow shower ongoing now but with brighter sky, sun breaking through, and some blue sky visible to the west. The clearing trend takes over from here, west to east, but some other clouds may skitter across the sky later.
It has begun to rain here, ground is wet 40.9 degrees
That works. I had mix/rain showers to the south. Forecast verified! π
Snowing here
Weekend system will trend south, weaker, and colder.
That is fine with me if that scenario verifies. That would mean we break the record by a few inches or so and we avoid major flooding. Thanks JMA.
Let’s see what happens.
Excellent forecast, TK. I realize it still has to `verify.’ But, you nailed this weekend’s forecast last week, and I expect the same for this week. I’m actually a little upset at the mets for their call last week and even this weekend for “big changes ahead.” The local mets are good. They tend not to do things in the weather.com mode. But, everyone bought into the “big changes ahead.” From Epstein to Pete B. Dialing up spring in New England, just because many in the audience want it to happen, is just not a sound proposition. To Tim Kelley’s credit, he did not bite on the initial indications for a major pattern shift. My take is that the weather has gradually changed to a more typical March (hence, still wintry) pattern, with brief episodes of zonal flows followed by episodes of jet stream buckles and wobbles with concomitant mixed bag precipitation. Nothing pleasant about our weather in March, generally.
As I’ve said many times on this blog, for pleasant go to Old England where it’s predictably spring like almost every March. This weekend, for example, London was in the upper 50s and sunny. Idem ditto in Amsterdam where the flowers are out. The headlines in the newspaper and on the Dutch national news website reads “Lenteweer.” This literally means spring weather. There are two words for spring: One is formal – “voorjaar.” The other is informal – “lente.” Lente comes from the word lent. It has a soft, mild, pleasant connotation: Spring-like in the way we dream of spring. Not many New Englanders would associate the period of lent this way, as the period is generally not mild, `soft’ (Dutch expression is “soft weather”), or particularly pleasant. The opposite is true in Holland in autumn. There is nothing `soft’ about fall there, with huge Atlantic storms, lashing winds, rain, and lots of gray.
What’s going on ….. brief heavy snow shower !
I’ve been watching the Bruins and wasn’t really paying attention to the weather and then the snow started. π
We were tracking it here. Just that front – no surprise. π
Ok, sounds good TK and thanks !
Good hockey game going. See if backup goalie can help the Bruins hold on.
Decent game. Like the Bruins effort this weekend in back to back games. Busy schedule. They don’t have more than 1 day off at a time until late March. Crunch time!
With the talk of snow melt I trudged out to the middle of my back yard in Andover and dug a big round pit down to grass. Put up the yard stick, 25 inches left, I think it’s going to last quite a while! Most of it was still dry powdery snow that was easy to cut into shovel squares. I think the pile at the end of my driveway will last into June.
Tom
24 inches left in this section of Woburn.
I suspect that there will be no more powdery snow falling from now on as temps will likely be marginal and just a few degrees below 32. Hopefully little or no rain for awhile yet.
The Friday night snow may start out powdery.
We are out sledding in Plymouth and it rained for about 10 minutes and then snowed for 10 minutes.
With DST all weather data will now be coming out 1 hour later. π
Daylight STUPID Time….don’t get me started. UGH!!
I wouldn’t care if it were April like it used to be but with so much wintry precip potential still to go, it is going to be all the more frustrating.
Agree totally.
Daylight Stupid Time! EXCELLENT! I love it!
PERFECT MELTING weather. PERFECT!!!
Temperature 43. The air is dry, so as melting puddles form, they evaporate!
EXCELLENT!!!! No problems with this kind of melt. Now IF we can keeps
a 2 inch, 50s rain storm out of here, we’ll be fine.
re: this weekend from Tim Kelley
Tim Kelley NECN β@SurfSkiWxMan 2h2 hours ago Connecticut, USA
as has been the case for 2 months or so..
new euro weather guidance FOLLOWS usa weather guidance with multi-day cold nor’easter Sat-Mon next
There have been many amazing things about this winter, but the most amazing to me are the ice dams and the leaking in our house. We built the house 23 years ago and never had a leak until this year. Now we have leaks in two rooms, plus a leaking screened in porch. And, here we are on March 8, and we are still dealing with the drip, drip, drip. I thought after a week in Florida the dams would be cleared up. No such luck. I really don’t look forward to the cost of the repairs, painting, etc. in the Spring, but that’s life. At this point, there is little to no sense of even trying to clean the house and make it look good, with all of the dripping. What a winter. I cannot wait until this is all gone and we can actually make our house look livable again. π Going to get a new roof this year and have the house painted. Then it might be time to sell. π
Answer to Todayβs AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What is the word for a solid turning into a gas?
A. Melting
B. Evaporation
C. Transformation
D. Sublimation
The answer is D.
I habe been lucking. No ice damns or leaks this year.
My goodness. My spelling is just beyond repair.
They are melting the snow faster at Fenway: http://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/obnoxiousbostonfan/2015/03/red_sox_snow-melting_secret_revealed_fenway_park.html?s_campaign=bcom%3Asocialflow%3Afacebook
That’s cool. Thanks for sharing.
Interesting article! Thanks for sharing, Mel
Now if I could only get some of that black sand for the 2 enormous piles at the end of my driveway. It’s pretty crazy when you can’t exit your driveway without a spotter!
Messorama POTENTIAL next weekend and leave it at that.
Barry seems quite confident Boston reaches 54 degrees on Wednesday. I am now wondering if the mild air is stronger than expected…albeit a one day stand.
That would be wonderful !
I notice that Logan officially recorded a trace of snow for today. What is interesting is that the snow showers survived beyond the Berkshires. They usually don’t survive Metro West let alone Boston.
They had upper support.
We had rain showers here in CT this afternoon.
I think the ECMWF model is going to lead some temperature forecasts wrong at midweek.
Especially Wednesday ?
Yes. Should be entering cold advection that day.
A TV met tonight posted a Euro snow map for next weekend and reported that if it were right then Boston would miss the snowfall record by 0.2 inch. BAHAHA.
Good old Mike Wankum.
Well 00z gfs has trended south and colder for weekend system. Easily achieves the record here in Boston.
Saw that. I’m inclined to believe GFS this season.
Agreed ……. unless it gets suppressed to far south and then the area might not see enough precip.
I think a lot of people will be surprised by the amount of melting this week.
You’re right. There will be a lot of melting. Some south-facing sections of lawn will be bare by Wednesday. But, there will still be lots of dirty snow piles around.
The front of my house faces south. I still have 25 inches plus on my front lawn (no drifts or banks). I doubt I see any grass by Wednesday. If I’m wrong I’ll have the OS special for breakfast – Crow!
I don’t think any of us see our lawn this week, but there will be considerable lowering of the snow pack.
My back yard faces south, the bank of snow along my path was chest height two weeks ago, now its around or just lower than belt height. Compacting and some melting.
Beginning to see a lot of TV mets on the over 50 bandwagon for Weds. One has a forecast of 54.
I have a like/dislike attitude towards DST this early in March.
Yesterday evening was wonderful. I had to pick up my daughter at 6:30pm and it was bright out. No driving in the dark, it was great !!
This morning, out the door at 6:45am and up even earlier. It wasn’t fully bright yet. It fealt an hour earlier. Even now, at 8:35am, it seems early. π
I don’t have a problem with DST, just the timing.
Should start in April like it used to.
End it October like it used to.
NOT start in March and end in November. Just my 2 cents.
Regarding Melting this week. Certainly there will be some and very safe melting
at that. Here is a tweet from Dave Epstein:
Dave Epstein β@growingwisdom 1h1 hour ago
Although temperatures are going to be in the 40s to 50s on Wed. Snow temp still cold, so melting will be slow. About 5-8″ loss by Fri.
Ummm is snow any other temperature but cold? Just curious.
Interesting.
I saw Barry last night and he very clearly stated 54 for Wednesday.
He’s a Euro kind of guy, so we shall see.
I’m with TK. Don’t see that happening. We shall see.
re: Weekend event
Still Conflicting information as per usual.
GFS has trended South and somewhat weaker, but Croaks The Catskills and Poconos
but leaves Boston SHORT of the record. I don’t get that at all?????
Euro would have it Rain here, with some upfront/backend snow. Record? I don’t know. Probably.
CMC is the most bullish with ALL SNOW for Boston. Right now painting
about 10 inches for Boston.
CMC is similar to the GFS but just a bit more North with the coastal and coastal
moves more Eastward than GFS takes it.
The GFS shorts Boston because it sort of moves SE or ESE keeping the main
precipitation field to our West and SouthWest. This was the 6Z run, so who knows.
Although the GFS solution is certainly possible, I would say that the correct
solution at the moment would be a blend of the CMC and Euro, which
means Boston would break the record, but have a period of mix or even rain
in the middle of the event.
Still early. We shall continue to monitor.
Another comment on Snow Melting.
Growing up, I loved baseball and would get out there at the first possible
moment in March. Given that, I was constantly monitoring the snow melt.
Trust me, it NEVER melts as fast as we think it will or want it to melt. Just doesn’t
work that way.
Same thing later in life when I wanted to play golf. The Bleepity Snow just wouldn’t
go!!!
Some here are being too optimistic about the snow disappearing
IT will melt this week for sure. No question about that. Disappear? hardly.
My 10 ft snowpile is down to 7 feet.
My 12 ft snowpile is down to 8 or 9 feet.
It’s going, but slowly.
Seeing that our last snowstorm of significance was Feb 16Th? Looks like your averaging 1 foot per week. If this pace continues your looking at mid may until its all gone.
I would imagine the pace would accelerate as the sun
angle gets higher and daily maximum temperature slowly
rise.
Of course, well below average temperatures and any possible
additional snow would retard that for sure. π
This was discussed previously, but this DST crap Blows when it comes to
viewing model output. That hour delay is excruciating.
12Z NAM has temperatures well into the 50s for Wednesday, while the 6Z GFS
(still waiting on 12Z) has temps Mid-upper 40s.
Good morning!! 44 degrees at about noontime, a ton a snow melt!!! And much much more to come, it may stay above freezing from Tuesday morning to Early Thursday melting the remainder or most of this snow. No rain till the weekend. Enjoy!!
48 degrees in Rockland.
12Z GFS comes back north with the weekend system. Most of the snow into central and northern NE but still delivers 6-9″ across the boston area with a sharp cutoff to the south.
And develops a noreaster on its heals for Tuesday the 17th. Interesting solution…
46 in Hartford. The snow is not doing much to hold the temp down today.
Meanwhile in NH….
MT. WASHINGTON: HVY SNOW 9 degrees, Wind NW55G75, VSB 0, WCI -20
Note, temps on the summit of Mt. Washington will actually be going down a little as March progresses (especially after Wednesday). That’s an indicator that there is still some pretty cold air left that will find its way across much of New England. I think the accumulating snows for Cape Cod/Islands and coastal RI (Charlie – that’s where you do some of your business) are over. Also, the melting there will progress much faster than in other parts of New England. However, Boston and vicinity, as well as the interior could be in for some surprises starting this weekend.
Just looked over the 12Z GFS and the 12Z CMC.
Different solutions to be sure, but both offer a fair amount of Snow for the
Boston Area with even more to the North. It does tapper quickly to the South.
Waiting on the Euro.
The GFS actually has 2 systems, while the CMC only shows one.
The 2nd system with the GFS is progged to be a bit warmer.
Still early.
So very interesting to watch these runs and see what the algorithms do
with each new data set.
Sure looks like a reasonable chance the record falls at Boston.
What is the total snow accumulation? Who knows??? Totally up in the air right now, ranging from Nothing to a foot plus. However, likely to be enough to break the record.
We shall see.
Very interesting set up for the weekend. I’m not really sure what to read into set up or how dynamic cooling may play into things. I would certainly not count out extreme Southern New England from accumulating snow. Although they MAY not see much this weekend, there will be a shot of cold behind this system with a couple other chances for snow. I wouldn’t count them out even if it was April.
I wish I lived where Charlie lived. The snow is surely melting, but I have well more than two feet covering my back and front yards. And along side the driveways and walkways, where all the snow was thrown from the snowblower, we are still talking three feet plus. I don’t think that is going to be gone in the next few days. π
Look at the map posted in the link below. Its all about the temperature of the snow, believe it or not, that dictates the rate of melt.
Terrific read on melting snow from Boston.com
http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2015/03/milder_air_will_melt_more_snow.html?p1=feature_stack_3_hp
Places on the south shore could loose 10″ of snow this week.
good stuff. I would only like to know how much the snowpack fluctuates in temperature from day to night, but otherwise very interesting
Good question. Also, I am sure that the snow towards the top is warmer then the snow towards the ground.
Excellent read. Well I sure learned something today!
Thank you.
46.1 degrees sunny
All I can say is we’ve had significant snow melt in the last 4-5 hrs
I think a lot of melting happens today and tomorrow morning, but when the clouds come in tomorrow the melting will decrease even though temps are well above freezing.
11.7 in sunny 14.4 in shady just measured, down 3-4 inches from yesterday π
WSI Energy Weather β@WSI_Energy 6m6 minutes ago
The strongest ever observed March RMM Phase 7 amplitude of 3.85 was back in 1997. That # could be rivaled next week.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_rNzxzUcAAqtCz.png
I know phase 7 is a SNOW phase for us. This does NOT seem to bode well for us.
Euro looks interesting for weekend, however, very likely to bring a period of rain with
front end and back end snow.
120 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015030912/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png
144 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015030912/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png
I HATE these 24 hour increments.
THe only way I can see it is on Wundermaps and that isn’t far enough out just yet.
Wundermap out to hour 69. Useless to us at the moment.
Went home for lunch. A whole lot of melting is going on.
More puddles than yesterday. That sun is WARM!
BUT still TONS of SNOW around!
I figure places with about 24 inches on the ground as of this morning should have about a foot by Friday. Of course it varies from place to place. There are pretty solid rules of physics that are governing the melting of snow. Observe and you shall see. The snow on the south side of my house will be gone long before the snow on the north side of my shed/garage area.
The snow in my mainly west-sloping yard will be gone long before my brother’s north-sloping yard. The snow in open areas will be gone long before the snow in the wooded locations. It’s pretty straightforward. π
That said, we’ll be adding some snow in the days ahead, but what falls then will not hang around as it won’t have weeks to go through a settle, slight melt, deep freeze process that we had going on from late January until about the end of February.
Heading to get Dad to bring him home today. I’ll update the blog by evening. π
I may bend to put a few lower 50s in for Wednesday but I’m not sold on that yet.
Good luck with Dad. Hope all is well.
π
NWS Boston β@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
The high temp at our office in Taunton today has reached 50 degrees. Warmest we have been since January 19th, when the high was 53!
Let’s see if pembroke can make it 48 now. Wednesday will make it to the mid 50s.
Euro would start as snow, BUT QUICKLY go over to sleet/mix/RAIN to RAIN.
Euro “could” be correct, but appears to be too warm.
I don’t think we get much snow this weekend . I’m guessing more rain than snow and record stands.
The record falls this weekend into early next week.
Somewhere in there, it goes down. π
12Z Euro depiction as of 7Pm Saturday. This is a RAINORAMA with perhaps a coating
of snow at front and back, but 95-99% ALL RAIN even well into Northern NewEngland.
http://i.imgur.com/muBkQRV.png
I’m not saying this is the correct solution, just sharing the 12Z Euro results.
I still think that this solution is too warm, but who knows at this point.
GFS and CMC just seem more realistic. Time will tell.
Did today’s tempatures overachieve
I’d say so, at least on the South Shore.
NWS Boston β@NWSBoston 11m11 minutes ago
[This Weekend] We are watching the potential for unsettled weather. Whether we see mainly a cold rain or snow remains uncertain.
I wonder if early spring climatology plays into what may happen this weekend.
Not referring to temps though ….
Referring more to cut-off lows, potentially cooling the column enough, if the feature strengthens.
With the ocean at its coldest, the surface temp isnt likely to get too far away from 35-36F. (assuming a low track south, with an east or northeast wind). Just get the column above cold enough and its wet snow for most.
Winter’s staggering for sure, across much of the nation. It’s been rocked by a right hook. A knock-down, but not a knock-out. New England is an outlier, as it is still more or less seasonal. Big differential in temperatures between locales only a 100 miles north (sub-freezing still) and here. Also, a big differential between temperatures here and a few hundred miles south (60s in DC and south of DC). And, a big differential between temps to our west and here (St. Paul, for instance, is in the upper 50s today and will be in the mid 60s tomorrow). There is still plenty of cold currently locked up in Canada and not too far away from us. The question is whether that cold can pivot south. With a buckle in the jet stream it will, which will produce unsettled weather as lows come in from the south. Also, the jet is riding anomalously well north of the plains. That will change by this weekend, which will make temps in the mid-west revert to seasonal or even below-seasonal averages. in a nutshell, this is the annual tease that makes you feel like putting on shorts and sandals.
What you both say will play into the events of this weekend.
I just think that the Euro portrays things as being way too warm.
We shall see.
It’s after 4:15 PM and the 18Z NAM is out to hour 34 is all. Damn DST!!!!
Anywho, it shows RAIN for Wednesday and perhaps more than originally thought.
Wednesday is MILD!!!
Nah, perhaps up to 2 tenths, tops. More like 1 tenth.
Really interesting article on sea level rises along the East coast.
Fascinating…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/02/25/mysterious-east-coast-flooding-caused-by-unprecented-surge-in-sea-level/
From NWS
NWS Boston β@NWSBoston 6m6 minutes ago
Here’s a look at the week ahead. Wed. is the pick of the week – sunny with highs in the 50s most interior spots!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_ruQjhUgAA4hor.png
Look at this 18Z NAM Surface and 850MB chart for 6Z on Friday. I guess that is now
2AM.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030918&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084
Do you see much of any COLD AIR over the whole of the US?
NOPE. Just our little corner and there isn’t all that much there either.
A nice reprieve while the AO is very positive.
Yes, BUT this is Friday AM, just ahead of our next system.
If one didn’t know better, it looks like RAIN.
BUT I’m not falling for that. π
I dont think that depiction is far off.
I think TK mentioned in his discussion above that high pressure will be strengthening to our north next weekend, so that will help.
Its going to be a marginal scenario. Ironically though, I think it may come down more to precip intensity than whether your inland or at the coast.
There are a bunch of solutions out there.
We shall see.
just give me 2 inches of snow and I’ll be happy. π
the 12Z FIM keeps the system mostly suppressed and COLD.
Here’s the snowmap
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2015030912/t3/totsn_sfc_f210.png
Eric says that whatever snow Boston gets this weekend will NOT be plowable.
Pete is thinking rain for Saturday but will keep an eye on it. I think they had 44 listed for Saturday. I’m with Pete on this one. Also said some spots could hit 60 on Wednesday. I think the mid 50s for Boston is a safe bet. With 3 warm days in a row lots of snow melting happening.
Some of those met’s may want to remember how cold aloft it is likely to be this weekend.
Yes. Sticking to my belief of 60 hours ago. Colder (snowier), less amplified, more progressive, further south, than models are showing.
Does not mean a lot snow, but more snow than other types of precip in many areas.
Indeed. How do you feel about numbers like 56, 57, 58 for highs Wed? One of the TV guys has them that high. I have 50-55 except 40s Cape Cod.
wow! Trying to be conservative but it will not be that warm. Yes, may top 50 by 1100 on Wednesday. Just to much ice pack in the area. Record will be broken snow wise Saturday. Not a wisher, just a realist! Still have 23 inches in Andover on the southern side. TK, hope Your dad is doing well!
He is doing ok, thanks!
I think also it will come down to location snow wise on Saturday .
New blog posted!
South Shore, no disrespect and love enjoy reading your thoughts.! Also, JMA thanks for your insight! I’ve enjoyed this blog and look forward to learning more!