A Mild Treat Then Back To Reality

298 Comments

5:20PM

SUMMARY…
A weak storm passing south of New England will toss a shield of rain into southern New England this evening, but it should be light enough that it does not cause any flooding issues. This exits by early Wednesday and sun returns with mild air for several hours before a cold front passes and sends the temperature into a tumble late in the day and at night. This sets up dry and chilly weather for Thursday and Friday. The weekend continues to look unsettled with periods of precipitation, probably starting as a snow/mix early Saturday, going to rain in most if not all areas, then trending back to a mix or snow for some areas before tapering off later Sunday. Still time to work out the details as this will be a complex low pressure area stretched out across the US Northeast. A one-day break Monday may be followed by another unsettled day Tuesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light rain southern NH and northern MA which may freeze on surfaces in some of the valleys, and light to moderate rain from the Boston area south and southeast, ending by dawn. Areas of fog. Lows 32-40, coolest interior valleys. Wind light SE to S.
WEDNESDAY: Breaking clouds and areas of fog early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40s Cape Cod, 50s elsewhere. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated rain or snow shower southern NH and north central MA early. Lows in the 20s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40 interior MA and southern NH, 40-45 RI and coastal MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Highs 35-40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix to rain. Lows 20-25. Highs 40-45.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain to mix/snow. Temperatures fall from near 40 to near 30.
MONDAY: Clearing. Lows 25-30. Highs 40-45.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40.

298 thoughts on “A Mild Treat Then Back To Reality”

  2. Thanks TK. How potent of a storm system due you see on Tuesday? With snow melt, weekend precip.etc..cmc shows a good slug as stated on previous blog.

    1. This far out, I don’t see it as a major event as the majority of indicators are not for such a system. May turn out to be a St. Patrick’s Day that makes us feel like we are IN Ireland. 😛

      1. Cold, rainy and fog I see. Thanks TK. Noticing ponding of water with the 18 plus inches of snow down the hill at the foot of the woods is starting to concern.

        1. We will see some of that since the ground is frozen and relative low spots can form large puddles and even small ponds! At least our rain amount from this system tonight will be very limited, trace-0.25 inch most areas except 0.25-0.50 inch South Coast.

    1. Yes, it is. My daughter called me earlier today to declare that it was as nice a day as she’s ever experienced in St. Paul in March. I did warn her that the warm-up will be rather short-lived, but that she’ll have 3 or 4 more days of relative mildness.

  5. My apologies if anything I said was deemed offensive. I was playing with words like cool and cold which have multiple meanings: A person (woman/man) can be cool, as in hip. A person (woman/man) can be cold, as in distant or mean.

    I’m very respectful towards all women, and treat women and men equally, in the workplace, as a parent of a son and daughter, as a son, and in my former relationship. While beauty is something I admire in women, I do not diminish any woman’s accomplishments and could care less what a person looks like in that regard.

    Hopefully my tone was not inappropriate. But if it was I sincerely say I’m sorry.

  6. I want to challenge Pete to a bet about whether or not Boston reaches 60 tomorrow. 😛

    2. Well tk he’s not the only one. Harvey 55 and some spots 60. I’ll challenge you somone hits 60 tomorrow. As I have been saying all week tempatures this week are overachieving this week. He did day cape probably cooler.

      1. Not sure they are overachieving as Pete said a week ago it’d be 50 in some spots today and BB said the same a couple of days ago. It is March and clearly even with snow it can generate some heat. Wonder what the temps would be without two feet of snow on the ground

        1. We would have had much more widespread 50s without snowcover today and yesterday. If the ground was dry a few 60 degree temps may have been seen.

      2. I know. I have 50s myself except 40s Cape, up a little from what I had 2 days ago. I think Boston falls short of 60 by 6 degrees.

  7. I’m guilty with the hot/ cold comments . I’m sorry if anybody was offended it was not the intent to do so.

  8. Both Pete and Harvey said spots MAY hit 60 so if it does not there both covered. I for one would love to see it hit 60 as I think we could all use it.

  9. I’m essentially repeating what the NWS is saying regarding tomorrow …..

    High launching pad + mostly sunny skies + west/northwesterly flow (if cold advection doesnt start to early) = pretty warm day in eastern and southeastern Mass.

    This is like in summer, when the forecast is for 88F at Logan and they end up at 92F, because it was already 78F at 6am and the full sun, dropping dewpoint and warming, downslope wind overwhelm the cold air advection.

    I wouldnt be shocked by 60F tomorrow. I’d be shocked, but wouldnt 100% rule out it hitting 63F or 64F tomorrow somewhere in eastern Mass.

    Now, if somehow a 2 hr seabreeze kicks in, Logan will be 44F. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  12. My son was telling me at dinner that a visitor from MT. Washington observatory came to his second grade class today. His name was Will. He learned so much and was very excited listening to him. He even got to talk to the observer on station live and asked him what his favorite cloud was. Very, very cool. If anyone knows the crew up there, please thank them for there time!! Will certainly has become a mentor!

    1. I dont know, nor have met anyone from the observatory …..

      Go to Mt Washington.org

      Up top, select …….. About us

      Then Select …….. Staff.

      Under the 2nd staff listing may be the person who visited your son’s school.

      1. Me too. Fascinated to hear these types of talks in a live forum and to watch faces with interest. He is very interested in the outdoors and weather. He gets more excited about storms than I do!

  13. TK – What are your thoughts about the record (107.6″) at this time?

    A. fall just short
    B. squeak by
    C. smash
    D. stay pat (105.7″)

    2. Somewhere between B and C.

      The only reason I’m reserved about C is because even though I’m reasonably confident it will be quite cold mid and late March, it may be very dry.

      1. Thanks TK. The latest CPC confirms that “dryness”. It could be one of those “wasted cold” scenarios.

    1. Thanks Philip. I will never be gone for long. This is family. I just needed to focus on other things 🙂

  19. Diamond, I volunteered for a week last summer atop the summit of Mt. Washington. The crew up there is a dedicated group of scientists. And yes, they also debate models, such as the Euro, GFS, and others. I’ve hiked up Mt. Washington many times, starting at the age of 7. My son and daughter started young as well: My son was 7 and daughter 4(!) when they first reached the top, with some help from their parents. The picture of them at the summit sign back in 1997 adorns my fridge, but also my office.

  20. A whole lot of evidence for some fairly serious cold, for this time of year, starting next week and being reinforced a few times between mid month and the beginning of April.

  21. I am beginning to wonder now if we will revert back to the pattern of cold and dry then warming just in time when a system moves towards us producing mostly chilly rain situations from now on.

    It is too bad that Boston missed out on last week’s Cape snow. The record would likely have been broken by now by at least a few if not several inches…50 miles further north would have done it!

    1. And indeed that was confined to both Plymouth and the cape. Even here in Pembroke not far at all from Plymouth we did not get that much maybe 1.5 that morning.

  22. Philip, I really like your answer options on your question.

    I have absolutely no idea which one to choose because I could realistically see all 4 happening.

  24. Unlike the past many nights, this could be a decent melt night.

    I dont see much to bring the temps below 40F most of the night. Most importantly, the dewpoints are near 30F, give or take a few degrees.

    Follow that up with tomorrow and it might be interesting to see where we are in terms of snow cover come tomorrow evening.

    1. I don’t think it happens this weekend Hadi but I also could be wrong. I think most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain. Also the timing I think is key for any front end snow. I think anything that falls Sunday will be extremely light in nature etc snow showers/ light rain. All this is just an opinion.

  26. NA is down to 8.3 inches and a foot in the shady section, Tom this snow is melting rapidly. 44.2 degrees, down south in Warwick and south in e Greenwich believe it or not are 60%-70% bare ground. It’s actually not dangerous to drive anymore. What a meltdown!!!! 🙂

  27. I hope there is one good snowstorm before winter is over. By April 1st hopefully some nice spring weather. Can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms in a few months

  28. TK. Pete said (and I asked him as I did you because for some reason I cannot get on whdh)

    Vicki

    I said Boston, and I stand by what I said.

    BTW, took our news dept. long enough to do that poll, eh? Wow! Talk about slow on the draw.

    Take it easy.

    Pete

    2. One thing I like about Pete is he stands by what he says and doesn’t hide if he messes up. Though all the TV guys in the Boston market are good about facing the music when the forecast goes wrong.

      1. I can think of many more than one but completely agree and suspect that you didn’t mean just one either :). Many of the same things are what I see about someone I very much admire here 😉

  29. I think Pete put out another great blog tonight. Still thinking more rain than white locally.

      1. It’s St. Pat’s Day! Therefore it will snow. It snows on all the special days in Boston. Groundhog Day. Valentine’s Day. St. Pat’s Day. Maybe it’ll even snow on Easter!

        1. Oh I forgot . Once was a big party day not no more. My first concert was on 3/17 I saw U2 at the garden.

                1. Hopefully highs will be above 55 while you are there! Still felt good to me in Feb when I was there.

                2. North I think my entire family traveled with you in spirit. Lots of memories for us an new ones mixed with old for you

  32. Seriously …rain? I have a slab of ice that is slipping fast on our rubber roof. Roofing folks have been stalling me for five days. They are finally coming tomorrow if it doesn’t come into the house through the window wall first. Rain ain’t gonna help. Anyone have spare rooms???

    1. Very cool !

      Frustrating …….. very busy schedule this week after school. I’d love to go down there and visit the bayside beaches and try to find some of those.

    2. Scary and awesome all rolled into one. Thanks for sharing. Just forwarded to a bunch of family and friends

    3. I had to have a little laugh earlier. This is amazing to see, but some of the media is talking like this has never happened before, almost as if something is “wrong”. They interviewed a long time resident of the area that indicated some years they have no ice, some they have a little, and once in a while they have a year like this. Frequent occurrence? Of course not. Happened many times before social media made everything instantly viewable.

  34. First night that doesn’t go below freezing in a very long time. But, it looks like we’re in for a cool-down with nights certainly going below freezing and daytime highs struggling to reach 40 most days, starting Thursday. I’d say that with the infusion of cold air in multiple doses the coming 3 weeks (there will be breaks in the cold), the chances are that there will be a few snow chances.

    We’re very lucky with the gradual melting. It’s not been as dramatic as I thought it would be. We’ll begin to see a little bare ground in parts of Southern New England by tomorrow night. The snow piles will still be around, most snowbanks, and some snow on the ground. But, around tree trunks and in south-facing spots the grass will begin to show.

    1. He’ll be replaced by someone equally good. Those that build this team are excellent.

      1. Sorry TK he won’t be replaced by someone as good. But I agree Pats will be fine as they always are.

  36. Great model consensus on a nearly off-the-charts MJO in phase 7 in the next couple weeks. I have never seen it forecast to be so incredibly strong in any phase since I have been following it.

    This indicates quite an interesting end to Winter and start to Spring.

    1. I think I’ve seen you equate this with opportunities for snow.

      I know very little about the MJO and its phases.

      Specifically, does phase 7 usually equate to a trof in the eastern US or a certain phase of teleconnections, etc ?

      1. Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 are associated with cold and snowy patterns in the Northeast, especially mid Winter to early Spring.

    2. Ice bergs on the cape….mother natures mojo is in overdrive.

      Yep…nothing unusual happening here 🙂

      1. It’s all happened before too. Uncommon, but not unusual. None of these are firsts. We just hear about every little detail these days.

          1. Records are set here and there pretty much every year. Once in a while you get an extreme one way or another, like the coldest December on record in 1989 followed by the warmest January on record in 1990.

            As somebody who has been studying these patterns for a long time, I can assure you that anomalies occur and are what make up the big picture.

            But these days it’s no longer a public that just wants to know “what the weather is going to be”. They want to know why it’s going to be that way, why it is that way, and every little detail as to why. And one of the main problems is a mainstream media which is built off a combination of entertainment and ratings, so the public education is not being executed properly.

            Everything is made to seem like it’s highly unusual, first time, never happened before. Yes there are some things that have not been observed in our very short period of record weather history. But the history of our weather and climate reaches far back before we started recording it. There is much unknown, but there is also a fair amount which we can assume reasonably accurately. 🙂

              1. Fine with me. 😛

                I used to work with some big names in the business and had access to a whole lot of info, not just hard copy, but some of the words of wisdom from the best forecasters and climatologists, including the founder of the oldest private weather service in the USA. Two of my favorites and they have both left us in the last couple years. Proud to have known them.

      2. im agreeing with vicki on this, im sorry but way to many people are blind to climate change 🙂

    1. Great link. And why is everything from most increased tides to mojo centering in the northeast. ?

      1. The MJO has impact worldwide as most of the large scale indices do. You just hear about its impact here because we live here. 🙂

  38. The melting is great, but I cannot believe how much snow I still have in my yard here in North Reading. A lot of our yard is North facing, so it always is a little slower to melt, but it just seems like it is never going to be gone. The snow has been a nightmare for our school building project. If will end up costing us more than $200,000 for all the snow removal that had to take place so the project can stay on schedule. We just heard this news tonight. 🙁

  39. So the phase 7 of the mjo will result in what? Sounds like you need other factors to line up for sig snow.

    1. There are always other factors. Phases 7 and 8 of MJO in the next 2 weeks put us in a cold pattern and produce snow threats. We’ll likely be drier than average during the period, but that does not mean dry every day.

  40. ok…. sorry, but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
    thats for the previous breaking news that Revis is going back to the darn jets for 70m 5 year contract
    browner might be gone as well

  41. A little climate research shows that the “ice bergs” from broken up sea ice in the Cape Cod area occur on average about 1 out of every 6 years. But it’s a slightly deceiving average because there can be long periods where little or no ice forms, then times when you’ll get it a few times in a decade.

  44. Wellllll good thing it is warmer. Ice sheet the roofing company didnt want to deal with until tomorrow just came through our FR window

      1. Guys are supposed to be here this am. They thought it could wait……I started calling six days ago. Not a happy camper. But no one was hurt and that is what matters.

    4. Oh my, Vicki 🙁
      I’m so sorry to hear about the damage to your home, but thank goodness everyone is OK!!!

  45. Logan today …….. 61F.

    Why ….. Minneapolis, 64F and saw lots of 55F to 60F nearby Minneapolis yesterday.

    Snow cover, which they dont have, cools us a bit, but is offset by downsloping W and NW winds.

    1. I don’t know Tom. I’ve been surprised at how warm we were able to get the last two days, but 60 seems a bit high to me. On a separate note, I work in Cambridge and the amount of melting around here vs. where I live 30 miles north is considerably different. We have melted some, but not as much as I would have expected. Down here in Cambridge, the snow is thinning quickly with maybe 5-6 inches or so left vs. say 20-24 inches where I live. I was also able to walk on top of the snow yesterday which tells me the snow left in the burbs is a solid as it comes and will be very hard to melt, especially away from south facing areas.

      1. That’s what I was saying last week regarding the snow melt in the Roxbury/ back Bay Area. You should see it now.

  47. 06z GFS is very interesting. It does develop a coastal Sunday Night into Monday which would break the record in Boston. Not sure what the Euro has to say(not that it matters) or if the CMC still shows this feature. The GFS also unloads a monster Nor’easter on 3/23; all snow. The cold looks to really come back with a vengeance for the second half of this month.

    Sun Night –
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=114&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150311+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    3/23 –
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150311+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

  48. Cindy Fitz is one of the best meteorologists, women or man. There is no fluff with her forecast, just the facts. I would also put Harvey right up there with her.

    The reason I don’t place Eric Fish in that level is his descriptions are very fluffy if you will. He makes things look cute but and I find his forecasts, blogs or silly weather specials to lack substance. I watched the spring look ahead special and was very disappointed. A Few weeks ago our area experienced some sleet, on his TV forecast her said ” Tonight while your sleeping you will probably hear sleet pinging off the roof tops”. Well the entire region had more than 24″ of snow on the roof with significant roof collapses occurring. The only thing we heard was the roof buckling from the weight of the snow. Those little embellishments is the reason why I place him down many levels from the top.

  50. Can anyone suggest a reliable alert service for my Smartphone for weather alerts, watches and warnings? I believe, because I am a Verizon customer and Verizon dropped The Weather Channel the other night, I no longer will get TWC alerts. I did not receive the “Dense Fog Advisory” last night. The TWC weather bulletins have been very good to this point. Does the NWS send out alerts directly to phones/texts without having to go through The Weather Channel, the WeatherBug, a Boston/Providence TV stations, etc? Thanks for any help.

    2. The bostonchannel . Com wcvb weather app is great. Check it out I think you will like it. I loved watching the weather cast video this winter if I missed the tv forcast.

  51. All snow is gone in and around Minneapolis. They didn’t have much. But, their ice is almost gone, too. While we’ve had cool to cold nights the past few days, especially Sunday and Monday, they’ve had no sub-freezing temps. For them, that’s remarkable in March. It’s a strange zonal flow, because the jet doesn’t really do a flat west to east. It goes west to east for a bit before going way north and then coming back down over the lakes and then returning to a west to east flow. This explains why Northern Maine and Southern Quebec are still quite cold.

  52. Good morning,

    Revis is gone and life goes on. Do NOT expect a Super Bowl repeat now.

    re: weather
    I’m very conflicted because, well, because the models are conflicted.

    The big 3 ALL are different.

    GFS is the most robust with snow. CMC hardly any and ditto the Euro.
    The NAM is certainly on board for a RAINORAMA on Saturday, but doesn’t go
    out beyond that.

    We don’t need a RAINORAMA, however, there will be some mitigation as temperatures will be cool at around 40 or so, thus preventing a disaster.

    Last night Eric was quite emphatic about RAIN and that the record would stand for now at least.

    GFS is showing signs of being SNEAKY. Can’t wait to have a look at the 12Z run.

    GFS for Sunday Evening:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015031106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

    GFS Snow map at 10:1

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015031106/gfs_asnow_neus_25.png

  53. Ok, I Lied about not saying anything more on REVIS. I totally and completely concur
    with the following statement:

    Tony Massarotti ‏@TonyMassarotti 11m11 minutes ago
    I had the chance to sleep on it. A new day is upon us. And I’ve still come to the conclusion that losing Revis was S-T-O-O-P-I-D.

    1. What’s stupider (is that a word?) is the Jets strapping themselves with all that money. It pretty much guarantees they will stay at the bottom of the AFC east for years to come. One great cornerback doesn’t instantly make a team a playoff team. This is why the Pats have been so good for so long, they have not done things like this. They have never put 1 player above all.

    2. Die hard Pats fan here… with that said, I am fine with a mercenary type player stopping in and moving on. It is a business, I am glad we had Revis for the time we did. If you really think about it, there was no way the Patriots front office would be signing up a long term blockbuster deal with a player at the age of 30. That isn’t their business/football model.
      What I look forward to:
      – A new reason to be passionate against the Jets
      – What we will do with that $$ and cap space
      – The moves we will make with our draft picks

      There is no way that the patriots can not be viewed as a Title contender. They still have Belicheck, Patricia, Brady, Gronk and Gostkowski. Not to mention their offensive line and defense which are chock full of players coming into their prime.

      Can’t wait to defend that Title!

  54. I know some will disagree, but we did not win this year’s super bowl because of Revis. I will go as far as say Browner will be a bigger loss. He brought much needed attitude and toughness to the secondary. I’m not saying this now bc Revis is gone, I’ve thought this for a while now.

    1. Is Browner gone, too? I haven’t checked the news. I tend to agree with you. They need physicality more than they need Revis. I think Revis was very good most of the year. He definitely helped win the Superbowl. But, Revis was not his excellent self the first 4 weeks, and he had a couple of uncharacteristic moments (eg, Jordi Nelson) throughout the season and post-season. He’s still elite, but for how long. I think the Patriots have been very good at making sure their teams are fresh, hungry, and not too focused on one or two players. I believe they’ll get a veteran cornerback. Not a Revis, but a good player. They’ll also use the money to fill up holes that they still have.

      OS, the record will fall. Something sneaky will happen. I didn’t think we’d get a sustained cold period, but it looks like we will. And that period will deliver more than 2 inches of snow, even if it’s in the form of a couple of March snow squalls.

      1. Browner was reported headed to New Orleans to discuss
        a deal with the Saints at way more dollars than the Pat’s would do.

        SEE YA. GOOD-BY Browner it was nice knowing you.

        GOOD-BY to the Super Bowl. NOT HAPPENING again while TOM is here. PATS JUST SAW to that!

        1. An interesting thought on Browner:

          Nobody has seen him play without an elite lockdown corner opposite of him.

          He had Sherman across from him in Seattle and Revis here…

          I really did like the aggression he brought though, hopefully some of that made an impact on the players around him.

    2. Lol!! Like when they got rid of Mankins? The world was on fire here. Calm down relax and let the 4 Time Champions do there thing. Your prediction last year was a surprising bust, guess what? They won it all 🙂

      1. I fully admit my prediction busted last year. I placed too much emphasis on the players and not the team as a whole. I didn’t believe in the philosophy, but *gulp* i think i may have drank some of the cool-aid and its not all that bad 🙂

  55. Hi all! I got a question on daily forecast temperatures:

    Example: Fridays temps are forecast to be high of 40, low of 22.

    Should I expect that low to be in the early AM Friday or later PM Friday.

    Servicing icy conditions from melted snow banks is my concern. I have always assumed the low for the day indicates the low temp towards the end of the day. I thought I’d ask.

    1. Excellent question and I’m sure TK will respond.

      In General, that low temperature is in the morning, however, depending
      on actual conditions, ie timing of a front for example, that low could occur
      late in the evening.

      Regarding This Friday, that predicted low temperature will occur
      in the morning at around 6-7AM or so.

      1. Thanks! We will be prepared either way.

        Looks like slippery conditions possible for Thursday AM and likely for Friday AM.

        When Roslindale is forecast to be 33-35 its usually a couple degrees cooler at the top of the hill.

        1. That hill is the highest point in Boston. I have seen
          different conditions there compared to the rest of the city
          at times. 😀

  56. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1h1 hour ago
    Snow pack has really ripened (warmed) over the past week. Expect significant melting today!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_0LRNNUgAAmo2l.jpg

    Add to that, we had a complete Night of MELTING. Never even approached freezing at my house last night. Melting all night long. Significant reduction in the snow yesterday/last night.

    Even IF it doesn’t make 60 today and is capped at 54 or so, no matter. Crap loads
    of melting today. You will be able to literally watch the snow shrink.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY MORE melting this week than I anticipated.
    WAY MORE!! No question.

    1. Dejevuh!!! happens here every time

      Snow melt?? There isn’t much left here 4.4 in sunny and 9.2 shade, we will be seeing grass in many areas by this evening. 43.7 already!! 🙂

    2. The GFS last week was right about the melting. The snowpack is disappearing very quickly. And I think Charlie needs to be given a nod, too. I saw some grass on my run this morning.

      1. I will admit that it is going MUCH FASTER than I ever
        anticipated. It is nearly the middle of March. That does
        make a difference.

    1. 48 Degrees at 10AM with Dew Point of 40. That’s significant in contributing
      to the snow melt.

      Not For Nothing, but the HRRR keeps it in the 40s today.
      GFS around 50 and NAM pushing 60.

      So which is correct????

  59. Biggest rate of temp increase today was forecast to be from 8AM to noon. Slows after that and starts to drop after 3. Now the question is: Where does Logan stop? 🙂

    1. And right after I say that the 10AM ob comes in and shows they only gained 1 degree in the last hour after 8 degrees the previous 2!

    1. TK, how much does a cold night for instance re-establish the cold in the snow? I plan on looking at the charts over the next few days to see, but was wondering if you knew? Thanks!

  61. Logan’s tough for knowing what it might hit today against what should be sound meteorological logic.

    I mean, record a temperature in the vicinity of lots of hot runway pavement and a place where there’s constant warm plane engine exhaust.

    That’s reflective of Boston as a whole ……… LOL !!!!!

    3. You forgot one contributing factor.

      In Boston, Beacon Hill to be specific, there is MUCH HOT AIR being
      blown about by the various politicians up there.

        2. All kidding aside, this gets back to many discussions we have had to MOVE the official Boston Observation site
          to the Boston Common, which would make much more
          sense. But Boston doesn’t do things that make sense!!

  62. I saw the talk about NFL free agency. I hope as a Cowboys fan we can hang on to Demarco Murray. I don’t have a good feeling about this and I hope I get surprised and he resigns with us.
    Back to weather.
    NWS out of Albany, NY take Saturday night Sunday
    EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY…AS
    MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF A NORTHERN
    STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FORM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
    SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE GFS AGAIN IS INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
    WHICH WOULD PLACE THE COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIFFLUENCE/DEFORMATION IN
    OUR AREA WITH MORE QPF. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH AND LESS
    AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING AND SHOWING LESS QPF. DIFFERENCES COULD
    RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FROM SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
    SHOWERS /ECMWF/…TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS
    /GFS/.

    1. Therein lies the problem.

      Seriously, with the Euro track record this Winter, would you go with
      that solution?

      Just saying. 😀

  64. more model divergence

    Take this 6Z GFS 500 MB for 90 hours or 0Z on the 15th:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031106&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=090

    12Z NAM 500B for 84 hours OR 0Z on the 15th

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    That is a TREMENDOUS Difference there.

    With that much divergence in the models, how does one deal with it????

    WOW! is all I can say. I am dumbfounded.

    Waiting on 12Z GFS to see if it changes.

    NAM isn’t so good at 84 hours out. 😀

  70. Same thing going on here…
    BDL rose 11 degrees in two hours this morning…from 37 at 7AM to 48 at 9AM. Between 9AM and 11AM, the temp has only risen only 1 degree to 49.

    I don’t foresee many (any?) 60 degree readings in SNE today. The typical “hot” spot, Nashua, NH may have a shot – they are up to 54 as of 11AM.

    Meanwhile on Mt Washington, W wind at 90 mph gusting to 100mph with snow, 21 degrees, and zero visibility. It always amazes me on days like today to see such a stark difference in weather conditions between the Whites and southern NH where temps will be pushing 60.

    1. Good comments, Mark. March is most definitely winter on the summit, but also all of Central and Northern New England. The snow is colder as we learned this week. The temps are colder. And, there’s much more snow to come up there. I mean measured in feet, not inches. I’ve driven through Northern Maine in late March and early April (even at the end of winters that produced next to nothing in SNE) and been astonished at how much snow and ice remain.

      Stark differences in NE in March between, say, coastal RI, and the White Mountains. Charlie will not be doing business up there until early May.

    3. Unfathomable is certainly appropriate. Due east of Rome and south of where Ace was for his honeymoon by about 94 km.

      1. Past few years this area has received a lot of snow. Wife’s grandparents grew up on a farm at the base of the Apennine mountains. Those mountains had snow covered peaks all year round

  73. Saw this on Twitter. Season to date snow totals for a number of selected towns across SNE (not just the 4 official reporting stations):

    https://twitter.com/Ants_SNEweather/status/574006883943501824?cn=cmVjb3NfbmV0d29ya19kaWdlc3RfYWN0aXZl

    The question is – how much will we add to these already incredible totals by the end of the season? It is ironic that the combination of teleconnections as a whole for the next two weeks (MJO, EPO, PNA, AO, and NAO) are forecast to be more favorable than they have been at any point this winter for cold/wintry weather in the Northeast. Granted we are in March so the impacts will be more tempered than what they would be in Jan or Feb. but no question that winter is not going down easy this year.

  74. The media keeps portraying Revis as a good and savvy businessman. Well, it’s very easy to be a good and savvy `businessman’ when you have a unique talent that is in short supply. It’s much harder to be humble and accept less than the maximum. Revis is smart, but his intelligence is not reflected in his decision to go to the highest bidder.

  76. 12z GFS is a little odd for this weekend and has drifted some from the 06z. The whole set up seems really odd and strung out on that run. Regardless, it still shows a very cold and active period following that all the way to the end of the month. Today will most likely be the nicest day for a couple weeks around here, so get outside and enjoy!

    1. I’ll make a bold statement and say boston will receive no more than 1 inch or less between Saturday and Tuesday regarding snow. I’m actually thinking trace amounts. This is just a guess.

      1. May not be such a bold statement.
        Does not appear that record will fall this weekend.
        We shall see.
        GFS looked like record would go easily, but it has changed its
        tune.

  77. Ah, the wild card ….. dry air moving in. It can warm up faster than more humid air.

    Logan dew point drops 5F, while the temp rises 4F.

  78. Was just out.
    54 at home. Car thermometer was reading 58.

    Logan 55 at 1PM

    I can’t believe how fast the snow is melting.

    BIG patches of grass visible around the office here.

  79. Gfs has back off completely. CMC comes in North.
    Does not look like record falls this weekend.

    GFS advertises something for the 1st day of Spring. That would be something, eh?

    Still waiting on Euro, but we know what that will bring.

  81. Wunder has Orient Heights Boston at 60.

    We are holding at 57. I’m wondering if I can unbury our fire pit and have a fire outside tonight. Only problem is that it is quite windy.

    We now cannot use our deck until every bit of snow melts and it has about 5 feet in most spots. The five feet of snow is full of glass shards from the window. You all know how I feel about not being able to use the deck……..Good excuse to head to Humarock for April I’d say 🙂

      1. His forecast for 60 was to be verified by Logan’s temp, just as my 54 was. They reached 57 so far.

  82. 12Z Euro at 72 hours depicts a pure LAKES CUTTER!
    Don’t know what happens after that yet.

      1. Wouldn’t that be something?
        Several bloggers suggested that awhile ago.

        We shall see.

        There are still chances and perhaps evens till an outside
        chance for this weekend.

  84. Pembroke pushing 60 currently at 57. What a warm week for the south shore. I’m dying to see how the snow at home melted today. Yesterday was a good day at home I saw some good melting.

  85. Let’s not forget what TK said yesterday about the models having trouble in this type of transitional pattern. I don’t think we’ll see model consensus until Friday and even then we may have some discrepancies. The best chance for snow looks to be after Sunday in between Sunday night and Tuesday some time. But after that I think we will have better chances for snow as the east coast trough re-establishes itself along with the cold.

    1. Don’t worry about the record. I was one of the persons who said `95-96 would retain its number one status. I no longer believe that, given the forecast pattern ahead. We’re lulled into complacency on days like today that feel like spring, look like spring, but aren’t spring. We’re not going to get snow from an advertised storm if you will. It’s going to come unadvertised, unannounced, the sneaky way. Why do I say this? Well, the cold dome that will envelop us (not nearly as cold as February) for a few weeks will likely contain some surprises: A squall or two as a front pulls through, a clipper, maybe even an old-fashioned coastal low. In any case, 2 inches is very much within reach.

      2. Joshua,

        Oh, for sure. Not much doubt about that.

        I’m just not convinced it happens this weekend, is all.

        As I have said a couple of times, I’m on the lookout
        for a surprise between Saturday and Tuesday.

    1. You could be right and I wrong. That would not be a first. But, I’m actually seeing a set-up favorable to snow chances. Unlike December the jet stream will not be zonal. We’re actually going to revert to the pattern we had in January in some respects. Granted, it was mostly dry the first 3 weeks of January. So, that could happen.

  88. New England Spring …..

    One step forward, 37 steps back.

    Oh my goodness, between TK mentioning phase 7 of the MJO and what the long range GFS is showing, we might not be seeing today’s temps til …….. ??????

      1. Maybe not as warm as today, but below average temps will be tempered by time of year and there will be some days that feel good on skin in the 2nd half March. I don’t foresee a significantly stormy 10 days after this weekend. Some disturbances sure, but more confident in temps averaging below normal, but not “extreme” cold….

  89. Really surprised at how this evolving. A few days ago kept temps in the 47-52 range for today. Obviously significant error. Also continued to believe that position of the Canadian high and shallow eastern trough combined with the 500mb flow would lead to a more south colder southern solution. Obviously a confluence of factors are working against this idea at this point. Other than missing some high ends by a few inches this has been a really good winter weather forecast period for me. You get confident when you feel you have strong understanding of pattern or intersecting patterns. This is all a reminder that in the end no model, MJO phase, AO/NAO/PNA really matters, it is Mother Nature and Father Climate who rule and decide to tell the forecaster that they are a POS…

    1. JMA, your forecasting skills and those of TK are second to none. I appreciate your comments. In economics (my profession) we have a term called “overshooting.” Prices can overshoot, for example. The underlying model projects a certain equilibrium price level that is overshot due to external factors. I think the analogy applies to meteorology. I think it especially applies in times of seasonal change, like March.

  90. Looks like Logan maxed out at 57. We’ll get the “official” in a while.

    I realize that some sections just inland touched 60. It certainly did that in some areas. The verification spot for Boston’s forecast will be Logan. I agree this is not always the best place, but it is what it is.

    Beautiful day out there, but messy underfoot! I’d say at least 5 to 7 inches of snowcover went poof today, so far. More in sunnier spots, less in shadier areas, as is expected.

  92. Grey ME office is calling for a chance of snow squalls across their viewing area with a HWO. Could this translate more to the south? Just thinking of early morning commute 4-6AM. I think Taunton has a slight chance of “flurries”.

      1. Yes, hazardous outlook. Just wondering on thoughts of further North action with the secondary front or a possible southern early morning surprise.

        1. Nam shows some precip overnight.
          Instant weather maps server so slow, I couldn’t continue to look.

            1. Squalls can become quite the event as we’ve seen! Just a lot of warm air around, although, lower DP’s. Could be a little something that
              puts BOS closer! Though, at that time of early morning could would be bad.

  94. Beautiful day!! Hit 59 degrees, currently 56.4 degrees, snowpack is gone, there r still piles of snow, and some snow in shadier sections, but truly amazing just how fast snow can melt. Snow will continue to melt through the night and until tomorrow evening. Hope everyone’s enjoying early Spring, well 9 days sorry 🙂

  96. With spring come migraines for me. I’ve got a big one. Light sensitivity, nausea, the whole nine yards. I get migraines throughout the year, but especially in spring, sometimes in conjunction with allergies. Spring has never been my season.

  97. Have to give some credit to MASS DOT with pothole repair. I left the house at 05oo (this morning) and every few miles on 495 from Andover until Amesbury, there was a crew patching holes. Not an easy job I’m
    pretty sure, but god bless them!

        1. We should be able to handle up to 1.00 inch reasonably well but there will still be some flooding problems. If we start seeing #’s over 1 inch then the trouble goes up fast.

  102. I lost approximately 8 inches of snow between Monday and Tuesday, and about another 8 inches today. Under a foot left I believe. I’ll get an official measurement later.

  103. We lost 5 today south side. A couple on east side with 20 inches. 54 inch piles on deck. Deck table smashed along with familyroom window. Just keeps getting better. But then could be a ton worse.

  104. I was looking out awhile ago. I have Not made a measurement, but looking over my
    back yard and neighbors, I’d estimate that we still have 15-20 inches on the ground here
    and that’s after a ton of melting. There is a CRAP LOAD of snow on the ground.

    Our back yards are about the last place in the City for the Snow to go.
    Shady and protected. Tons of snow.

    1. The cold air, what little there is/was, retreats in a hurry!!!

      Cold? What cold? Maybe later, but not this weekend. 😀

  105. Looks like a RAINORAMA on Saturday and a mini Rainorama on Tuesday, St. Patrick’s Day! So Where’s the BEEF??

    Oh, I know, I ATE IT!

  106. I think it is safe to say that TK won the Pete challenge today! I’m still thinking about what the prize should be 🙂

    1. To be fair, we tied. Logan’s official high was 57. Exactly half way between my forecast of 54 and Pete’s forecast of 60. But if you use The Price Is Right rules, he went over, so I win. 😉

  107. We’ve got bare ground patches up here in Plymouth, NH. We never did establish the kind of snow pack SNE did. Just about every event under-performed for this region, with dry air being the culprit. This weather is just awesome though.

    Exciting times in meteorology. Record breaking positive PDO. Strongest (or close to it) March MJO pulse on record. 4 tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere (including a very rare one in the South Atlantic, though it’s technically subtropical). El Nino trying to evolve. Near record positive AO now crashing negative. Very interesting stuff… probably makes for hard forecasting though.

    1. If in fact SNE outpaced NNE in terms of snowfall for an entire winter, this may be unprecedented.

  108. I recalled this post I made a little over 2 weeks ago …….

    February 23, 2015 at 8:35 PM
    With what we have been thru the last 4+ weeks and March 1st only 6 days away ….. since 2010, here’s the furthest into March Logan went before hitting 50F. (I ignored the rest of February)

    2010: March 6th at 57F

    2011 : March 5th at 55F

    2012 : March 7th at 62F

    2013 : March 11th at 50F

    2014 : March 8th at 55F

    Data courtesy of climate section, Taunton NWS

    Uncanny, that you can now add …..

    2015 : March 11th at 57F.

    1. Just makes me shake my head

      And our daffodils are up about 2 inches all along SE side of house ..even under the foot of snow I gently pulled away to check.

    2. Technically the blizzard was in its formative stage today the 11th and the snow itself got started on the 12th. The dates 11-14 1888 are ok. 🙂

  112. Boy the euro is cold straying Wed and I took a look at euro weeklies and it’s ugly through early April. If we could just get any moisture inclined the record will go down. I still think a 100% it goes down.

  115. Hi all. Busy day and was out this evening.
    Most of you are probably asleep except a few night owls.
    Going to update the blog in a moment…

    Watch for morning snow showers. We had these in the forecast for Wednesday night as I thought as of the writing of this blog that the front would be faster, but it will be in the early morning.

    Cold air returns Thursday into Friday but gets chased away temporarily Saturday with the advancing storm. But the set-up to me is starting to look like rain flips back to snow with significant dynamic cooling Saturday night and early Sunday. How much moisture will be around for accumulating snow especially N & W of Boston and perhaps into the city itself? Some, but not sure how much.

    Cold returns on Sunday and hangs around for some time… Hope you enjoyed the brief “hot spell” because it’s about to be history.

    The best news is up to this point we’ve been able to melt more than half the snow without significant flooding. We’ll see what Saturday brings, but I am optimistic that we don’t get so much rain in a short time that flooding is a major issue. Fingers crossed for a decent outcome there.

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