Cold Cut

264 Comments

12:24AM

SUMMARY…
Low pressure passing north of southern New England today will first drag a warm front through from west to east with some areas of light rain early to mid morning followed by a shot of mild air between it and a fast-moving cold front which will cut through the region from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. A few snow showers may cross the area later in the day as the cold air arrives. And this cold shot will be significant for March, making Wednesday feel more like mid Winter, counteracted only by the strong March sun which will shine among passing clouds, which may bring a few isolated snow showers. A more tranquil but still chilly day will result from high pressure being overhead on Thursday. By Friday, low pressure will approach from the southwest throwing at least cloudiness into the region. Some ocean moisture may also add to the cloudiness as high pressure pushes to the north and sets up an easterly flow between itself and the approaching low. It is still unclear to me if any precipitation will reach the region from the low, and if it does, what form it will take. For now, will lean toward a light mix/rain event late Friday. This should move out for a milder Saturday but a strong cold front will return the cold to southern New England by Sunday and Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clouding up. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s but rising a bit toward dawn. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of light rain morning. Partly sunny afternoon including a risk of passing rain to snow showers late day. Highs in the 40s, may touch 50 a few locations. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH later in the day.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill 0-10.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Slight chance of a snow shower. Highs 27-35, coldest in highest elevations northwest of Boston, least cold across Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix late. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain/snow showers late. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 15. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

264 thoughts on “Cold Cut”

  6. Thanks Tk 🙂

    Light rain 38 degrees, heading to around 50 degrees 🙂

    I thought we would have called the day off but it appears the rain will stop by later this morning. We got a late start but it’ll be alright. 22 lime applications today 🙂

    Tomorrow marks more daylight, I’m sure most are happy we are no longer on the dark side, doesn’t it just sound like a side u definitely don’t want to be on, it’s like the slang word everyone uses “old man winter”. Enjoy the day folks!! And happy Spring!! 🙂

    1. 50+ a few spots today. Take away about 20 for tomorrow though.

      I’m quite happy we’ve returned to the light side. As you know, I like both equally. 🙂

  8. TK, I think you made a call that we’d be heading into a cool and dry pattern. Sure looks that way on the GFS. In fact, one could argue we’ve got six more weeks of winter left. And by winter I mean still heavily under it’s influence in terms of below normal and even well below normal temps.

  9. I guess somewhat in Charlie’s defense about a third of my front lawn is down to grass which is amazing considering weeks ago it was waist deep. The back gets less sun and while the snow is a lot less the only bare spots are surrounding a pine tree.

    1. Well, unless every square inch of grass were exposed and able to have lime spread in an even distribution and that includes under snow piles, I’m not sure I would be a pleased customer. Maybe most people aren’t aware or don’t care but I’m one of those who is willing to pay firms more for whatever service who follow best practice in their industry. Not to mention and maybe Charlie can advise, but I thought lime should ideally be layer down in the fall?

      1. Oh I am in no condition for yard work that is months away…I hope! I guess my point was if I have this much melting and his area got less snow than I did (not even sure if that is true) then I could see some areas having a lot less snow.

  12. re: Friday

    On again off again on again. Want to know what will happen Friday? Wait till
    Friday and stick your head out the window, then you’ll know.

    After 12Z GFS advertised snow yesterday, the 18Z, 0Z and now the 6Z GFS all
    take it OTS, perhaps barely grazing far SE MA. Seems to hand control over
    to the Northern Stream clipper.

    However, The CMC is still advertising a moderate snow event.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

    Snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015031700&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=363.33334295837994

    The Euro is close. Not sure how much snow, but at least a couple of inches, but
    even the Euro is mostly off shore. More of a hit than the GFS, but less than the CMC.

    http://i.imgur.com/8GHM8ht.png

    FIM has is sliding just underneath us. Very close, but no cigar. Might dust the
    South Coast.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015031700/t3/3hap_sfc_f102.png

  16. Question for the weather experts here regarding all of the models: how do the models that seem to almost never be right stay in business? Why do people pay to see models that are pretty much already wrong? Also, how many models are there that track our weather?

    1. There are so many models, tough to mention them all. Some are proprietary
      like WSI’s RPM model.

      Most are available to the public, but then not all of the charts. There are
      various premium services for that.

      I can list the ones I get and links to where I get them. Oops I can only
      post 4 links at a time. I’ll provide 4 main ones to start.

      NAM – Short range to 84 hours
      GFS – Medium range to 384 hours
      CMC – Medium range to 240 hours
      EURO – Medium range to 240 hours
      JMA – Medium range to 192 hours
      NAVGEM – Medium range to 180 hours
      UKMET – Medium range to 144 hours
      FIM – Medium range to 336 hours
      DGEX – Medium range to 192 hours
      HRRR – Short range to 15 hours
      RAP – Short range to 18 hours
      SREF = Short range Ensemble to 87 hours

      And I am sure I missed something and if so, someone WILL fill in the blanks.

      Here are 4 main links to get most of them:

      Tropical Tidbits: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
      Instant Weather Maps: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/
      NCEP Central Operations: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
      UQAM Weather Center: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00&lang=en

      That will get you most of it. I’ll follow-up with a few more.

      Re: Paying for junk? I dunno.
      Generally speaking there are a few decent ones and the rest? Well for
      entertainment purposes. What ifs? and so on. Blends.

      In no particular order, generally the top 3 are:
      EURO
      GFS
      CMC

      UKMET is not too bad.

      NAM is good close range.

      HRRR is sporadic

    2. That’s a great question Mel. I just paid $9 for a one month subscription to eurowx.com and it has been pretty much wrong all winter 🙂

      All these models have their ups and downs and periods of good and bad forecasting. The important thing to remember is that these models are just guidance – you need to know each model’s biases and forecast based on a blend of their guidance, their ensemble members, and applied meteorology. You are rarely going to be successful if you just take one model verbatim and expect to base a forecast off of it.

  17. 0z Euro snowmap through the weekend:
    http://i.imgur.com/Fp1FFRQ.jpg

    Still depicting a moderate 3-5″ snowfall for the Friday night system. All of the snow on that map in SNE falls Friday night.

    Overall, this Euro has been trending colder and colder through the end of next week and looks mostly dry for awhile after the late week system. Fairly similar outcome to the GFS.

    1. Thank you Mark.

      So it’s the Euro & CMC against the GFS.

      GFS has bee really good all Winter, but perhaps it is confused by
      Spring conditions????

      We shall see.

  20. US National Weather Service Norman Oklahoma
    12 mins ·
    What does a slow start to severe weather season mean for the rest of the year?
    As of today (March 17) NWS Norman hasn’t issued a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning in 2015. In fact the last time the office issued either type of warning was back on December 14, 2014.

  24. I think in 10 days we will start to see consistent low temps at or above freezing and highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. We will have some melting with in the 10 day period but after I think it goes quicker. Snow showed by going on the south shore by April 7th expect for the piles.

  26. I don’t think anyone is complaing about the slow start to severe weather season across U.S. This is the good side of the pattern.
    I don’t the people should let their guard down just because of a slow start to severe weather season. A perfect example was our winter here where only 5.5 inches of snow fell in Boston through January 24th then BAM!!! I am not saying that will happen with severe weather across the U.S. but it could.

    1. Sadly, in the years when it started the latest, there were some of the worst
      tornado outbreaks ever. SO it means nothing, other than it is a very good thing.
      The longer it goes the better.

  28. 12Z NAM at 84 hours, has system approaching us and looks like it’s in a precarious
    position:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    But a look at the upper flow and well, See YA (Unless there is a rapid change)

    500mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031712&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    300mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031712&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=084

    200mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031712&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    That’s a WNW flow aloft. Can’t get a storm up here with that.

    1. and the NAM has often showed a NW bias in the long range this year. So if anything it may trend even further away from an impact for us.

  29. I hope this trend with severe weather continues across the U.S. Low reports of tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds are a good thing. I have this feeling a switch is going to get turned on like our winter and severe weather season across U.S. is going to ramp up. I hope I am wrong. Of course as we know here in New England we could get tornadoes and we saw that last year the EF 2 in Revere and EF1 in Worcester. Hopefully no tornado touchdowns this year.

    1. Bastardi predicts major outbreaks mid-April through May.

      Hope not. Just about the same time TK and JMA predict the pattern
      changes.

  32. People complain here about cold and snow. At least a lot of people I know but I will take two feet of snow over destructive tornadoes that you see in the Plains and the midwest. At least here in New England are tornadoes are weak but as we saw back on June 1, 2011 we could get a strong tornado if everything lines up. Thankfully those are a rare occurences.

    1. I sure agree about much of our weather over the destruction in other parts of the country…tornadoes and hurricanes (yes I know we can have them) and earthquakes, etc. I think the problem this winter is that it was an extreme and winter, summer, spring and fall there is never a time when an extreme is good.

      1. Hi Vicki…. A couple years ago I was talking to a guy in a bar in NYC and he said and I agree with him every part
        of the country has there few month stretch where the weather is not good.

    1. More than interesting. Thanks. I never recall hearing of the outages or disruptions that are predicted with these. Does anyone?

  35. Was just about to post how this day appears to be more dreary than I thought and the sun just popped out.

  38. It got sunny here too but it didn’t last long – turned gray and cloudy fairly quickly. 44.3F here in Coventry, CT.

    Just measured snow depth ranging from 9-14″ throughout the yard. That’s down from 14-16″ last Wed. and 26″ about two weeks ago. Still holding tough but will need reinforcements if we are going to have a white Easter 🙂

  40. Northern Maine has been walloped in recent days. Repeated doses of 5-8 inches of snow on a daily basis from Saturday through today. They must have a snow base that rivals that of Prince Edward Island. They also look to be getting much more as we head towards winter’s final showdown the coming 2-3 weeks.

  41. Lots of sun trucks temps say 53 degrees, a ton of snow mold folks, should grow right out within a couple weeks, seeing a little top growth to some sunnier lawns 🙂

    2. Yeah. Lots of lawn growth. I know I should be ignoring these posts, but just seeing them makes me want to abandon this blog. So dumb. Right, the grass is growing in sunnier area.

  42. About 48 degrees in North Reading, but the sun is gone. Just measured a uniform 15-17 inches in both my back and front yard. The slow always melts slower in our yards, however, than the front yard across the street, which is sloped and south facing. They have about half bare spots and half snow-cover of only a few inches.

    1. Thank you Mark. Eric is onto that.

      Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 39m39 minutes ago
      Still looking like plowable snow potential will return late Friday/Friday night. What a ridiculous winter.

      Sure seems like he is flushing the GFS down the toilet!

      1. The GFS has been crazy run to run. It may end up being right, but it sure has lost it’s consistency.

  45. 50 here and SNOW is melting at an incredible rate or so it seems.
    Can literally see the snow dwindling.
    My 10 foot pile down to 4 feet. 12 foot pile down to 5 feet.

    It is going.

  47. if there is a storm friday night that would be cool since im going up to wachusett saturday

  49. with the hole grass thing, yeah of course there are going to be areas of grassy/mud patches since there are what we call snow drifts but the average is still a good two feet or so. , there is probably some plants growing as well along the house

  50. NWS runs with the same horse shit ALL day long. They update conditions, but
    not the forecast. I do NOT LIKE IT!!!
    I mean that they do that. I could give a rat’s ass about the forecast.

    LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY…THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR A
    POTENTIAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS STORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING…WOULD EXPECT
    PRIMARILY A RAIN-CHANGING-TO-SNOW SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
    THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

  51. Snowcover in my yard: 8 inches. There are bare spots. There are spots with over a foot. This is how you do it: Take 20 measurements and average them. If you get a location that is very representative, that is, the snowcover there is that of the average you found, you can use that spot to track the remaining snowcover. It has been done this way a long time. You do not take your maximum depth and call it your snowcover. You don’t locate a few blades of grass and call it bare ground. It’s actually quite simple, once you get the hang of it.

    1. I am sticking with my 15-17 inches then. I took about 10 measurements and all were in the 15-17 range. The only place I have bare. spots are where I used the snow blower, over the septic tank and under a few trees.

  52. TK, from 72 hrs out, whats your take on what the 12z EURO is showing for later Friday ? I know its impossible to be exact, but just in general ?

    Is it onto something or is it out to lunch ?

    Thanks !

        1. Oh wait a minute, he passed away several years ago, you’ll have to sell yourself.

          Bernie is sort of sold. 😆 😆

        1. Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis St. Laurent breaking a path for a passenger ferry stuck in heavy ice, Mar. 17, 2015.

  58. I have no meteorological reasoning to answer this 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Cant help but noticing on both the GFS and EURO, around next Friday night into Saturday morning ….

    2 systems.

    One south of us and one north of us, passing by across southern Canada.

    They remain separate.

    I wonder if there’s any chance that those 2 systems, which I assume represent the 2 branches of the jet stream, could ever phase into a much stronger storm …..

    There is one important reason I bring that up. Big astronomical tides max out this weekend and there is no room for much of any onshore wind.

    1. Even if they don’t phase up into one big storm, with a set up like that
      one has to watch for some sort of NORLUN SHENANIGANS!!!
      Even it not true a Norlun due to lack of stationariness. I made up a word.
      It could still be a rolling Norlun and cause trouble.

    1. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago
      A gust to 49mph in Concord! As this front blows through expect a smattering of rain/sleet/flakes, too.

      1. Sky is absolutely awesome here. Dark as can be to the north which must be what is going through Concord.

  61. In Warwick/Smithfield today where the sun poked out this afternoon.

    Temps were in the mid 50’s w/light winds, but now the wind is howling and the temp has dropped into the upper 40’s.

  64. Lots of blue sky in Marshfield, with cumulus clouds off to the west and northwest.

    You put together 3 cloudy days in mid March near the equinox, when the sun is climbing so quickly in the sky …. and then suddenly have the sun pop out like it is now, its seemingly so much stronger than just 3 days ago.

    Ahead of the front, the temp is responding to the sun, it is reading 52F at the small Marahfield airport. Logan has gotten to 50F at 4pm.

  65. Wind has really picked up here in CT as well. 40mph+ gusts easy. Down to 42F here but no precip. so far other than a few sprinkles.

    1. We are still at 49, Captain. Must just be reaching us. I have to go out for a quick errand Should be interesting with this wind

  67. Hartford, Springfield, and Westfield now all reporting sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts 45-50 mph

  69. Wow. I’m out. In parking lot. Car is literally shaking. Sheets of graupel and car temp dropping as I watch it. Amazing stuff

  70. Here in Reading we just had a quick hail? Sleet maybe? It looked different than sleet but it was intense with gusty winds!

  73. That was probably the first sleet squall I have ever experienced. 😀

    I’m pretty sure the ice people saw was large sized sleet, not hail. The difference would be that there was no repeated up and down motion to get hailstones. Instead that was just large raindrops falling into a layer of cold air and freezing. They were barely frozen which would be because of the drop size.

    1. I’m checking into it more because there was some convective elements to it. But even convective clouds can produce large sleet instead of hail.

    2. Fascinating. Thanks TK. Everyone was sitting in their cars. I of course has to get out. It stung a bit but was fun

      Sun breaking on western horizon.

    1. I actually got a bit worried as the car was moving more than I’d ever felt it. Not so worried I didn’t get out but…..

  77. Very intense, gusty squall of rain, snow, and sleet pellets in Wrentham past 10 minutes. Totally cool 🙂

    1. Was it on the advancing side of the cloud deck? I saw a lot of scud on the front side. It’s also possible you saw a cold air funnel. Those can occur easily in this set-up.

  81. Now I don’t feel so stupid. I was watching the sky and was going to ask if a tornado could form this time of year.

    Also TK as I drove the precip went from fine rain to big plops of rain to the sleet which is exactly what you describe.

    1. Power outages now being reported in framingham. First was where I was parked. Not the least surprised at that

        2. I thought it was five times fast. That is how many times we used to try to say “Blue Buick” when we were kids.

    1. And I looked up cold air funnel and am pretty darn sure it is what I saw. Not here. North of here.

  85. I can verify the wind like everybody else. Around 5:30 lost power twice and I was just watching stuff blow off my front porch, really caught me off guard. No sleet or any of that here in Pembroke just the wind.

  86. Well that was interesting. We were out in the middle of it again.
    Sheets of Sleet. I thought for sure it was convective hail. That’s what it looked like to me. Didn’t look like sleet to me. Waiting on confirmation from TK.
    Temp has dropped from 50 to 38.
    Nice snow shower when we arrived home. Nothing now.

  87. Just spoke to my daughter. Rt. 135 was closed in Ashland due to a downed tree across
    the street and taking down power lines.

  88. 18Z GFS is still in the toilet, unless, of course, it is correct. 😀 😀 😀

    What a weird configuration that is. 😆 👿 👿 👿

  89. I can attest to the tree/limb damage in MetroWest Old Salty, a street was closed in Medway on the way home and a street was blocking one lane in Sherborn. Total yard sale.

    1. It’s not that he’s not concerned, it’s that he’s not sure. It is not likely to be a “big storm” in terms of a huge precipitation producer. It’s just a matter of whether or not it’s close enough to throw precipitation of enough intensity in here to get enough snow to impact travel for a period of time. Too early to make that call with any confidence.

  91. Tk, Wife and I were out in this event.
    We were in a mall parking lot waiting it out and watching these
    pellets hit the windshield and bounce off the hood.

    They were NOT round. They had odd shapes to them like summer pea sized hail.
    Sleet is round or mostly round. These things looked like candy corn, only ice colored.

    I’d lean towards it being convective hail with low freezing level and not sleet.

      1. On the other hand….

        Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
        NEMAStormWatch ‏@PeterLovasco 1h1 hour ago Gloucester, MA
        First thunderstorm #GloucesterMA 2015 season … This may be indicator of wild severe season I’m ready !!!

        1. That does not indicate anything regarding the severe weather season. That’s the same thing as wish-casting.

          1. Of course. Understood. Just posting because
            IF and I do say IF, this is a real report, then
            there was a Thunderstorm in the area today
            which could bolster the hail theory. 😀

  92. Here is the picture for the road closure in Ashland: @AshlandMAFire: Rt 135 is closed in both directions between Main St & Homer Ave due to a tree on primary lines. @EversourceMA enroute http://t.co/MHMTPsHrGs

  95. You can make a case for both large sleet pellets due to the large rain drops, and small hail. I’ve been thinking and rethinking about this and looking at the radar loop. I’m not 100% sure and I’m going to poke at NWS about it, but it may very well have been convective enough to be classified as hail.

    Regardless of that, very pronounced frontal passage and some ferocious wind gusts. Wind gusts stay up all night too, maybe just a few ticks lower than some of the gusts with the front itself.

    1. So I’m not totally out of my mind.
      I’d be very curious to hear your final thoughts. Many thanks TK

      1. I’ll try to get a solid call on it. The radar did show a good moderate to heavy return passing right over where I was. It makes sense that WeatherWiz did not see it on the other side of Woburn (nor did my other friend that lives on the same hill) because that radar echo was east of that area. After we had the frozen whatever it was squall, it went to lighter rain, picked up again, flipped to snow, then stopped.

        1. My very uneducated thought is for sleet if I understand your description TK. One thing I do is observe. It was fine and then big and odd plops of rain then literally horizontal blowing sheets of whatever it was.

          1. I’m not so sure that my description was 100% right. The more I think about it, I don’t think there was enough cold air in place yet just above the surface to freeze rain drops of that size into big sleet. I am leaning more toward small hail the more I think about this. I should have reached that conclusion sooner.

          2. Same observed on I-495 between Wrentham and Bellingham while driving, started off w/frozen white ‘stuff’ in sheets, flipped to liquid as the precip intensity backed off.

  97. I could feel a big difference from stepping out this morning to stepping out this evening. Some good wind gusts out there.

  99. Down to 32.9 here. Puddles freezing now for sure. Those that hadn’t dried up
    due to the wind.

  102. Can’t seem to get ahead…few normal days then bam…back to February. This is going to be one of those Springs we don’t have…from freezing to 80.

  103. Tweeted Eric. He said we were witnessing
    Graupel. I DISagree. I HAVE seen plenty of grauple.
    Imo, today was not grauple. Need final
    Answer going nuts!!!!@@@@

        1. I don’t mind but I’m in and out. If I go with my wife I just go to parts of store that I would like. My wife just takes to damn long and looks at a thousand other things that is not what she went in there for.

  106. The wind looks like it helped dry up most puddles otherwise it would have been a mess. There are still a few.

  107. Enjoying reading the thoughts on sleet vs hail.

    I just happened to be returning from an errand in Marshfield when it happened.

    It sure looked interesting on the windshield.

    If it helps, the truck thermometer was 44F at the first raindrop and 36F when the event finished.

    1. My car thermometer was reading
      49 through all of the heavier precip
      Then it started to fall.

      2. So, well above freezing in both instances.

        The wildest part was, at its most intense, seeing the sheets of it hitting both the road and our windshield.

        1. I was 49 when left house. Was a very fine but heavy rain. 1/2 mile later temp down a few degrees and turned to good sized and very heavy splats. Another half mile I parked and thought precip was dying down then amazing winds and heavy sheet of parallel frozen precip. Small in size to the point that as it landed it blew as a light snow would on the ground. When I felt it was relatively safe to leave car the precip wss still small and hurt some on skin.

      1. And oh so sadly. I’d be more than excited with another storm. Sick….I tell you…..I am sick

    3. Not much left in the tank my friend. Eventually the calendar wins out. March is flying by in my opinion. Not at all saying we are done but it’s getting close, real close.

  112. No sign of Aurora here. Something circulating on FB that it is being seen in Bourne but who knows

  113. Before too long will be tracking thunderstorms in a few months and posting links here on the blog for CAPE Lift Index Values and EHI Values.

  115. Man, my yard is just littered with downed branches. 10,000 power outages reported this evening in the Hartford area and two large trees fell on houses in Hartford and South Windsor.

    If you are traveling tonight watch out for black ice as well. Anything wet has flash frozen. Nearly lost control on my way home on a couple of icy patches not too far from my house.

  117. I was wrong about snow squalls. I really expected them. Did not happen. But, we sure got wind. Mt. Washington summit is reporting 74 mph wind sustained. They had a peak gust of 124mph. Windchill currently is at -43F. Pretty good indicator of how vigorous this front is. The next one on Sunday should produce similar results.

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