Having A Blast

210 Comments

1:48AM

SUMMARY…
A March cold blast arrived Tuesday afternoon as a strong cold front moved rapidly through the region, triggering showers of rain, small hail, and snow, with even some thunder reported in a few locations. Of even more significance were very strong wind gusts, up to 60 MPH in some areas causing damage and power outages. Winds have continued to have strong gusts since, and this will continue through Wednesday, with only a slow diminishing of wind Wednesday night through Thursday as high pressure approaches. This high will then slide just south and east of the region by Friday as a low pressure system approaches from the southwest. It looks like the bulk of this system will pass just south of southern New England, but will bring at least cloudiness and possibly some rain and snow to at least southern MA southward later Friday and Friday night. As this system exits, another low will track northwest of New England and Saturday will turn out milder with a southwesterly flow developing, but rain showers may arrive later Saturday and end as snow showers early Sunday as yet another cold blast arrives and lasts into the start of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Slight chance of a snow shower. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-35 MPH, gusting 40-50 MPH at times. Wind chill 10-20.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 coastal and urban areas. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusting 35-45 MPH at times. Wind chill -5 to +5.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing gradually.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow especially southern areas late afternoon and night. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow early. Chance of rain showers late. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 30. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

210 thoughts on “Having A Blast”

  1. TK, thank you for the update and it looks like another weekend of wet weather. I am not even sure of how many completely dry weekends we have had this year. Anyway, one week from today, it’s off to Florida to see the Red Sox.

  3. Good morning.

    Sure looks like a miss for Friday.

    Things are subject to rapid changes around these parts this time of year,
    but not looking too threatening for the foreseeable future. (for now)

    1. I agree O.S.

      Long term looks so below normal for temps, anything is possible but I think we’re locked in a pattern of mostly misses.

  5. Good morning!! Chilly morning but a little chilly weather doesn’t hold us back. 🙂 you can lime in spring or fall, and at 10lbs+ per 1,000sqft. 42 done, 940 to go 🙂 we plan to change to early spring fertilizer with crabgrass reducer starting in about 10 days or so. Enjoy the day!! We r in E.greenwich RI again today. When we left this morning na was 60-70% bare. Will be starting here next week.

    1. That sounds about right for E. Greenwich, it was at least 50% bare in Warwick where I was yesterday. Good luck out there.

    2. Literally makes no sense charlie. Crabgrass will not germinate until the soil temperature is consistently above 50-55 degrees and unless we see a lot of nights about 55 degrees that is a complete waste. I wouldn’t use crabgrass preventer until mid may depending on how warm it is around here. I have a south facing hill on my lawn in full sun and that usually won’t show signs of crabgrass until June. It says it lasts 4 months, but it really doesn’t and usually needs a second application to be fully effective. I landscaped for 7 years and am suspect you even own a business.

  6. I know most will boo hoo it but lots of violets showing esp south sides of homes and even has a customer tell me he has perennials showing even in Worcester cty.

  7. I will say at work bulbs planted in the fall starting to pop up about an inch or so up from the ground.

    1. I’ve already said our daffodils are about 3 inches up – average. They are on south facing side against white and covered by blue stone. But I had to dig the snow away to find them. Hardy little things.

    1. Supposed to be BETTER VIEWING tonight. We shall see.
      I have NEVER seen the lights, as far as I can remember and I think
      I would remember that.

      Farthest North I have ever been is the Canadian border at Pittsburg, NH.

        1. More info at this site:

          http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts

          NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 18-Mar 20 2015

          Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20
          00-03UT 6 (G2) 4 3
          03-06UT 5 (G1) 3 3
          06-09UT 4 3 2
          09-12UT 5 (G1) 3 2
          12-15UT 3 3 2
          15-18UT 3 3 2
          18-21UT 3 3 3
          21-00UT 4 4 3

          If I read this correctly, best viewing tonight, all night long, but absolutely best 8PM to 11PM with a reading
          of 6 and a G2.

            1. This evening, you need to march on over
              toNobscot Hill. Climb to the top and place your lawn chair facing North and ENJOY!!

              1. Haha. I had to walk through knee deep snow just to get to the verizon box outside our house yesterday. I’m thinking climbing nobscot is not in my near future. I was thinking of driving to doeskin

  9. After Looking over the GFS charts some more, to me it looks as if the GFS
    has lost its way. Having said that, it will probably end up being correct.

    This was, after all, the 6Z run, so who knows.

    Being that as it is, it delivers about .25 inch qpf to Boston and .25 to .5 South and East.
    It also brings milder air in, both at the surface and aloft, so only about .1 falls as snow.
    Again, this run.

    The CMC still wants to bring it in tight and change to rain.
    About an inch of snow. Total QPF exactly the same as the GFS.

    My understanding from Hadi is that the Euro delivers about .36 qpf ALL as SNOW.

    We have a monster in the making no matter how you slice it. 😆

    Beginning to look like a 1-3 or 2-4 inch call on this. Big Wooo

    Waiting on 12Z runs as we are getting much closer to this event, if you want to call it an event. 😀

  10. Looking over twitter, it “appears” that Eric Fisher is in Camp Euro for this
    event.

    Can anyone explain to me how one stays with the GFS all Winter, then suddenly tosses it and is enamored with the Euro instead? Eric is very good, so there must be a really
    fine answer to that. I just haven’t seen it. Haven’t seen the differences even discussed,
    other than Bernie and Bernie leans towards the Euro as well, again with no real
    explanation other than him saying that is how he thinks it will play out.

    Any thoughts. I, for one, am really curious to know why.

    In the forecast discussion above, TK seems to be incorporating the GFS in his
    forecast of it mostly staying to the South.

    So what gives????

  12. On another Subject,

    TK, I see in the discussion above you indicated that the wind swept crap falling
    from the sky yesterday was HAIL.

    Did you have discussions with colleagues? Did the NWS answer you?
    Curious to know.

    I was disappointed Eric didn’t even mention it on the 11PM Broadcast. It would
    have been very informative for the audience.

  13. I know they are not dependable, but the Accuweather forecasts WBZ radio runs also has accumulating snow in Boston for Friday night and Saturday.

    1. Eric Fisher last night called for “plowable” snow for Boston and then proceeded to say that they send out the plows at 2 inches. So whatever that means.
      To his credit, he would NOT get into accumulations. Good for him.

      Again, as of the current information, looks like a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snow event.
      NOT a snow storm.

      12z runs will be coming and we’ll see what they say.

  15. re: Wind

    Although I could hear it howling, when going out this morning I was not impressed
    at all. Just another March windy day as far as I am concerned.

    When that front went through late yesterday, different story.
    Lot’s of damage around and many downed trees. That was wind.

    1. I’m having car rocking gusts up here now that are as strong as if not a bit stronger than what I saw yesterday.

      Blowing sand is nasty.

      1. Sure, but I guess way down here in the City it’s not so bad.
        Also, Now that the sun is up and getting higher, perhaps the
        wind is picking up.

        Just walking to my car this morning at home and walking to the
        office from the parking lot, just no big deal.

        That is all. 😀

  16. Catching up a bit..limited time today.

    Did not get to contact NWS but it was fairly local and with the cold air only just arriving and not established…I retract my original thought and say small hail.

    RI should have more bare areas now especially after the last 2 days. They had nearly half the snow that Boston had during the big snow stretch.

    1. Funny this is the worst wind I have seen in a long time. Things around my house that didn’t budge during Sandy are being flopped around big time with this wind. Crazy.

      2. Amazing. I’m just not seeing that.
        I have seen my house shake on rare occasions.
        But not this time. NO shaking going on all night long and this morning. None. Nothing. Just routine wind.

        On the other hand, my house is not built like most houses.
        It is like a fortress. The floor joists in the cellar are
        12x12s!! I am dead serious. It takes winds over 60 mph before we feel anything at all. If the winds are howling at 50mph,
        we wouldn’t know it except that some of our old windows will rattle. 😀

    2. Thank you TK.

      Then I feel good about my assessment of yesterday.

      A lot of snow went yesterday. My snow piles are way down.
      The 12 foot pile is down to 5 feet. The 10 foot pile is down to
      4 feet. Snow in yard is way down. Haven’t taken a measurement, but
      I’d guess around or about 10 inches. Hadi, do you agree.

      1. About 14 inches in my yards in North Reading. As for the wind, house has been rattling all morning, with a current temperature of 27.8 degrees. Happy almost Spring! 🙂

    1. “May” be a tad more than that. We shall see. Certainly not a biggie that’s
      for sure. 1-3 or 2-4 most likley with a High End “possibility” of 3-6 or just
      a touch higher. Again that would be high end and not likely at this point.

      We also could get into RAIN which would limit even more, perhaps and inch
      or less depending on how it actually pans out.

      12Z runs are coming. 😀

  18. For the people who want spring even a dusting of snow they will be like really come on its suppose to be spring. Well this is New England and it can snow in spring here. March 31st – April 1st April Fools Storm April 6th 1982 April 27th 1987 and the latest measurable snowfall May 9, 1977.

  19. 12Z NAM is Out to sea with Friday’s event.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=066

    This is at 66 hours, which is not exactly in the NAM’s wheel house. Still, it gives one
    pause. Will this pass out South of us? OR is the NAM missing something???

    At this point, I’d lean to the NAM is missing something. Even the GFS now gives us something.

    Now anxiously awaiting the rest of the 12Z runs. 😀

  21. I’m going with more rain than white I believe it starts warming up Friday. Light in nature.

    1. IF the EURO is correct, then it will be ALL white, whatever there is.
      Euro calls for about 2-4 inches.

      IF CMC and GFS is correct, it will be more wet than white.

      IF NAM is correct it will be neither. 😀

  23. Charlie, where in North Attleboro is it 60-70% bare? Did you see the pics I posted on last night’s blog from my visit there last night? Granted, i didnt drive the entire town, but all the way up Washington St. to the town center, each yard had 100% snowcover.

    1. Ace, It’s not worth the effort. He clearly gets a rise out of making ridiculous statements.

      1. His guys must be really enjoying laying down the lime on this beautiful spring day. I have about 14 inches of melting to go to see my lawn. 🙂

        1. It is not 60-70% bare in North Attleboro. Maybe 10% at most and that is on areas that were sheltered from the snow. I do plenty of driving around town and no where is it 60-70% bare ground!

    4. Awesome. Will do it on my computer at home later. Did this with last year’s. Can’t wait to see this one. 🙂

  26. NYC way above there average monthly snowfall which is 3.8 inches.
    Here is a stat since winter of 2000-01 NYC has had 10 winters with above normal snowfall.

  29. TK – I saw old salty asked why you say hail. I am curious to that as well. What caused you to change your original view? If it is hail in one place, can it be sleet in another. What I saw seemed to transform before me from rain to frozen whatever. Regardless of what it was, it certainly was as fascinating an event as I have seen.

    1. I didn’t see it but in Andover my wife told me that they had hail for about 5 minutes when the edge of the front hit…. As I was driving up from Westborough to Andover along 495 it went from rain to more of a rain / snow mix, but I did not see any hail…

    2. I don’t think the cold air was deep enough low enough. Therefore I believe convective up draft and downdraft was in play. There was thunder on Cape Ann.

      1. I found Tim Kelley’s remarks on the T-storm in Gloucester a bit odd. He seemed to suggest that this was the first T-storm this year. Last month, we had thunder snow in parts of Eastern Massachusetts. And last month there was definitely at least one lightning strike a boom of thunder in Boston. Many strikes and booms of thunder in Plymouth, as we know from Cantore’s famous clip.

        1. I think he meant in the classic sense of a T-storm, not
          as in Thunder Snow within synoptic precipitation with banding.

  30. Just catching up on the blog as I was in meetings all AM…

    JJ – The 0z Euro remained consistent with a moderate snowfall mainly south of the Pike. It was a little less robust and a bit south of yesterday’s 12z run. Here is the snowmap:

    http://i.imgur.com/4Y9uB51.jpg

    A good 2-4″ for most trending to 3-5″ here in CT. I’ll post the 12z run if I have time after it comes out.

    OS – I can see Eric F going with the Euro as it has been steady and consistent with this storm threat and it has good support from its ensembles. The GFS on the other hand has been less consistent. Ironically, the 12z GFS drops even more snow than the latest Euro run but does it in a different manner than the Euro and still sends the primary storm out towards Bermuda.

    1. Yeah, don’t know what’s up with the GFS. Crazy stuff.

      I guess EURO is KING once again. 😀

  32. Keep the shovels handy. The 12z UKMET and GGEM looking more like the Euro now as well with a decent hit mainly south of the Pike and in eastern MA.

    1. UKMET

      Surface

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

      Precipitation – NOT complete

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=qc&stn2=PNM&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

      Qpf to this point is:
      10 mm = 0.393701

      Depending on ratio, that’s 2-4 or 3-5 inches right there with additional to come.

  33. @ericfisher: Both GFS and GEM finally coming around to ECMWF solution for Friday. Euro crushing the competition lately. http://t.co/XX3BhUrEM8

    Has the Euro regained its crown as King again?? Another good call by Mr Fisher if this pans out.

    2. The Mets snow maps will come out for a general 3-6 inches, unless someone wants to make another distinction and place a 1-3 and/or 2-4 zone. 😀

      WHO will be the 1st to do so?

      Contest anyone?

          1. I thought those numbers he said on air were a little low. This is a meterologist that doesn’t blow things out of proportion. From what were seeing with the latest model solid advisory level snowfall for SNE.

            1. Perhaps that was from earlier information?
              He’ll up them a little bit. Certainly not
              a major big time storm, but enough
              snow to be plow and be a real pain in the butt.

  37. That is the key what you said Mark nightime event. With the sun angle so high now very tough to get snow to accumulate during daylight hours unless it comes down hard.

  39. 12z Euro snowmap.
    http://i.imgur.com/vOKEUbX.jpg

    Pretty much stays the course with moderate accumulations Friday night focused mainly in CT and RI, a bit less in eastern MA.

    On this run however, the Euro pops a secondary low that enhances and lengthens the period of precip over Eastern MA during the day on Saturday. Only problem is that surface temps warm and much of this falls as rain after the snow Friday night.

    1. That’s interesting, because my maps show the highest totals NW of Boston, about 6″. It has to do with the precip from that secondary low… My maps are counting that as snow NW of Boston. I know Eurowx has its own algorithm, not sure of its accuracy though.

    2. Mark thank you. That agrees with what I posted below.
      However, that is subject to change and could very well be all snow
      up to Boston. We’ll have to wait and see.

      It is getting more and more interesting to say the least.

  40. 12z Euro was kinda strange. Shows a general 3-6″ on a 10:1 ratio. Highest amounts were NW of Boston though.

    I think generally 2-4″, but it may fizzle to less than that, this setup doesn’t impress me. Weak low and marginal temps.

    1. I agree WxWatcher I think those numbers may come down . And if anything falls on Saturday it would for sure be rain as Saturday I believe is a mild one. I even heard earlier reports Friday starts cold but warming up by days end. I know Harvey mentioned those borderline temps last night. I’m not sold on these numbers to high. Again just an opinion I could be wrong.

  41. I don’t know if this qualifies for 1st or not:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 14m14 minutes ago
    Early call is for generally a 2-5″ snow event late Friday into early Saturday. I’ll make some maps shortly.

    Should go up 1 inch to 3-6. Oh well.

    2. BZ has a map on FB that has plowable below Pike and lighter amounts north of pike.

      BZ has been challenging WHDH all year trying to be first. Or perhaps WHDH management smartened up and realized it is irritating.

        1. Yes that does. It’s the same Map Eric has on his
          11PM broadcast last night.

          Does not qualify as snow map. We’re looking for one
          with actual accumulations on it. 😀

  42. Euro brings nearly .5 inch to Boston and more South and East. Pretty close pass. May bring some mix and/or rain to coastal sections. Waiting for additional frames. This image is at 84 hours and shows cumulative QPF. Also, not sure if this is the grand total
    or a subset of the grand total. Looks like it is most and could be all.

    http://i.imgur.com/KvAZEb5.png

    1. I don’t get the Euro snow map.
      Just had a good look at Wunder MAP.
      Thermal profile looks good up to just South of Boston.
      Only rain should be far South Shore, Cape and Islands.
      “Could” be boundary layer issue? I dunno
      Perhaps another layer I can’t see?

      I’m guessing this is an ALL SNOW event for Boston.

      We shall see.

  43. DID TK mention the 28th time frame for additional Winter storminess.
    Could this be the one?

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1m1 minute ago
    lol hour 240 on the ECMWF. Seriously starting to wonder when this winter will end. Hoping before May.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015031812/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015031812/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2015031812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    Plenty COLD enough to start. Not sure what would happen.
    No matter, the EURO is sniffing out something here.

    Will need to watch for changes and see if it goes POOF on subsequent runs. 😀

    1. I’ve been eyeing the 28th-31st window for a week. I just don’t like to trumpet that stuff too soon because sometimes people run with it. 🙂 Not you or anyone specific here, just a general statement.

      1. We may rename you the HOLY ONE: THE PROPHET TK

        This will be fun to watch unfold.

        I’m looking for an Easter Sunday Block Buster. I wonder IF it’s
        in the cards. Perhaps I’ll stack the deck. 😆

  46. There really isn’t a gradual anything with these pattern flips. We did “relax” the pattern before obviously with the cold becoming less in magnitude, and I mean pattern-driven cold, not just the fact that the averages go up. We are talking about relative-to-average for each date or a period of time. March is around 5 below average so far, where as February was double digits below. And we obviously got rid of the relentless big storm parade. But we kept the cold pattern and some snow threats from time to time.

    You get wiggles here and there but the overall pattern remains the same until a major shift occurs somewhere and is a longer term shift. I think this may be triggered by a combination of a few indices including the QBO, EPO, and ENSO by the middle of April and then things chance in a bigger way for a longer period of time. Let’s just target April 10-20 for now and see where it goes from there.

    Remember a couple days ago I mentioned that Wednesday would be one of those Arctic days (and yes this is Arctic air, modified by March sun), including passing glaciated cumulus clouds? We have those around the region now. You can see them streaming down on the NW wind with snow basically blowing out from them but then evaporating in that super dry air around each cloud.

    1. Speaking of High Sun Angle. Went home for lunch and even though
      it is below freezing, ALL of the puddles in the SUN that froze last night
      were totally melted. Amazing. NO melting at all in the shade. Melting
      is processing in the sunny areas.

      1. You can pretty much tell the time of year by looking at the ground when the sun is out, as long as you know what time it is.

  48. John Saturday temps on GFS and Euro are right around freezing. Not sure where you are warm temps or are you just thinking that?

    12z EURO and GFS clearly increased QPF and I think that will continue, not a ton more but for sure more. 3-6 is a good range for this storm imo. Both gfs and euro don’t show rain, surface temps right around 32-34 and 850 cold enough for all snow.
    Euro at .60 and ratio of 10:1 should equal 6 inches. GFS looking around 4-5.

      1. John, usually an opinion is based on something, like this model or that model, or one’s interpretation of the upper air flow, blocking high, SE Ridge, El Nino, Ocean temperatures, etc. Something.

        To what do you attribute this? Curious to know.

        1. The projected daytime tempature is 37 under cloudy conditions . I’m wondering if Friday is actually in the mid 40s especially if we have sun. If that happens maybe border line tempature issues Friday night. Saturday will be a warm day. It’s just an opinion as I always say I could be wrong. I also suspect that track is not set in stone on Wednesday afternoon.

          1. Thank you. Ok, now I see what your reasoning is. Not sure where you got a projected high of 37, but let’s assume that is accurate. It is COLD above, therefore when the precipitation starts it will cool the lower atmosphere to 32 or perhaps a tad lower. (Dynamic cooling) Thus, it will SNOW and not RAIN. And it WILL accumulate.

            Just a matter of what the final qpf will be.

            We shall see. It will be interesting to be sure.

            Btw, Saturday’s high temperature is irrelevant as the snow will have already fallen. 😀

      2. I now its your opinion but rather than tell me to take it or leave, why not to learn more. Learn how to interpret the models so you can figure out real temps. Take what you learn and apply it to metrology etc. You would much better informed if you tried.

          1. Why? I bought I was being polite and trying to help. I don’t get it. Anyway if you want it over so be it.

  50. Here is good read from the NWS, pretty much all snow expect the immediate south coast.

    I INTO SAT…
    SRN STREAM WAVE INITIATES MID ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS LATE FRI. THE
    KEY HERE WILL BE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRES…PARTICULARLY IT/S
    RANGE FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. TWO CAMPS HERE NOW…A NEAR
    PASS…LED BY THE ECMWF ON THE DETERMINISTIC SIDE…AND THE
    SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE GFS. THE LATEST NAM IS THE MOST
    SUPPRESSED…SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. THE
    ECMWF DOES HAVE MORE SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE BOARD AS
    MENTIONED ABOVE. EVEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC…ALTHOUGH FURTHERS
    WITH THE LOW TRACK…TRAIL IT/S BEST DEFORMATION AXIS/MID LVL
    F-GEN FAR ENOUGH N TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIALLY BANDED PRECIP
    ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS A
    COLDER SOLUTION…WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A SNOWY START POSSIBLY
    TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX/RAIN NEAR THE S COAST AS IT TRAILS
    OFF SAT MORNING.

    AS MENTIONED ABOVE…GIVEN THIS RECENT TREND…WILL LEAN AWAY
    FROM THE ALL RAIN SOLUTION…AS IT IS LIKELY THIS STORM WILL HAVE
    SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACCOMPANYING IT.

    THE QUESTIONS OF HOW MUCH AND WHERE ARE THE TWO WE WILL NEED TO
    ANSWER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. NOTE THAT THE H92 AND H85 0C
    LINES AVERAGE REACHING THE IMMEDIATE S COAST BY 12Z ON SAT.
    THEREFORE…THE INITIAL DEFORMATION/F-GEN BANDING FRI NIGHT IS
    LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER…THE PEAK OF THE OMEGA
    GENERATED LOOKS LIE JUST BELOW THE BEST DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE
    VERTICALLY. THEREFORE…RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE LOWER END
    OF THE SPECTRUM ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC-H7 LAYER BECOMES NEARLY
    ISOTHERMAL AROUND 0C MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. THEREFORE…A
    PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD FOLLOW THE SNOWS.

    QPF VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.20 TO ABOUT 0.50 ON
    AVERAGE…WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.
    THEREFORE…AT THIS TIME…FEEL SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE STATING THAT
    THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
    ESPECIALLY S OF THE PIKE GRADUALLY ENDING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
    HOURS SAT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME OF THE
    FRI EVENING COMMUTE. STAY TUNED AS WE APPROACH AND THERMAL
    PROFILES FALL INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

  51. I know where the 37 degrees for a high for Friday came from, our good ‘ol friend The Weather Channel 🙂

  52. A little more concern for accumulating snow Friday night. I am going to start a base line of 3 inches and say 3 or less north of Boston and 3+ from the city south. Remember folks, this is snow. Not a lot of precipitation wiggle room to make amounts go up or down. Not a big storm. But a storm in which roads would be impacted Friday night. Quick cleanup and melt on Saturday which should go into the 40s.

      1. Pretty much. The base 3″ line is just a rough idea. I just saw Eric’s map after I posted. Not too bad for a first guess.

        1. Mine too. I think we lose a bit of daylight QPF on either end and then the best (if any real banding) is confined south and while surface temps will be cold enough, there is going to be some warming in the snow growth region of atmos, so cut down the ratios even from the already lower March climo. So feel ok about 3″ baseline. Still think it could end up a bit more showery in nature (vs sustained) especially Pike, North.

          1. I agree with that.

            I think we may get a little warmer Saturday afternoon than some would suspect after a snowish kind of storm is departing. But it’s not a classic setup. These things can be surrounded by relatively mild air and just snow when they are over a location.

  53. Colder solution for Friday/ Saturday which is what I had talked about a few days back. However, colder does not mean convert all the QPF into 10:1 snow accumulation. Lop off .10 from the mean precip totals then go to an 8:1 or so for accumulation on the remaining sum. About a 3″ average for SNE. So Eric’s 2-5 map, even though I think it is early, would seem pretty good.

  54. FWIW,
    The 18Z NAM has suddenly come charging Northward with the Friday system.
    Don’t know IF it will be a direct hit, but WAY farther North than this morning’s run.
    Funny how that happens, isn’t it? More in range now that it’s about 48 hours (ok a tad more, but certainly more in range)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015031818&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054

    kind of still looks like it want to slide to the East some, but the trend is now there.
    I’m sure the NAM will be on board soon. We are really approaching its wheelhouse.

    1. If that solution where to verify there is no way much precip gets north of the CT / RI border and then that northern impulse and cold funneling high is going to force as SE dive of any precip from there. Of course that is the 18Z NAM and you know I don’t look at 6’s and 18’s….they confuse my small mind.

  55. It may very well be 37, 38, or 41 on Friday, depending on where you are. The bulk of the precipitation would fall Friday night, and the precipitation itself would be lowering the temp as we also had some colder air working in from the north temporarily. Yes, it’s temporary, and it probably bounces right into the 40s Saturday after that storm gets out of here and we get into a southwest flow ahead of the next shortwave. But that makes no difference. You need 6 to 10 hours Friday night to get a few to several inches of snow. We’ll have a decent opportunity provided we get into the precipitation shield solidly enough.

    1. Nighttime vs Daytime is such a March / April key of course. But no one here needs me to tell them that…

    1. As mentioned earlier this week. I don’t think this system is our best chance of a real “spring winter storm” Somewhere during the last 3-5 days of March is where I would focus.

    1. Right now, any time after 4PM for steadier precipitation, probably mix to snow, but if road issues are going to result I’d push that to 7PM or later.

          1. Jail & Sleet. I like that one.

            Yes a little earlier for RI but not much earlier I don’t think.

  59. John and others, To me one of the best parts of the blog is the learning I have done over the years. We have two mets TK and JMA and I try to absorb as much info as I can. I bug TK all the time on FB asking questions so I can learn more. We have others here that are so knowledgable that I don’t think it’s bad to ask and learn.

    1. Agreed Hadi. I love to learn and although I have a long way to go before I can even come close to a lot of you on the blog, i am grateful for what I have learned. It is fun to watch the TV mets now and actually understand what they are talking about.

      1. I agree also and have always said that this is an exceptional classroom. We never know what things we might learn as we get older 😉

  60. Harvey it’s to early to say how far north the system will come as far as Boston is concerned .

    1. Which is why I said what I did above, but not because Harvey said so, but because I concluded the same. 🙂

  61. It’s amusing that the CMC wants to develop a large sized East Coast storm about March 24 and no other model has it. But a few days ago the GFS actually had a big low there on the same date then gave up that idea…

    1. Isn’t the CMC the one that sometimes has a clue on the big lows from the tropics on the east coast in advance during the summer just never has the strength right?

  64. TK – Regarding the late March timeframe, could that event be measured in “feet”?

    Not to frighten anyone, just curious…

    1. In theory it could be but how many people knew that about the April Fools storm 10 days in advance? 🙂

      1. Not me! That was an epic storm – I still remember some birch trees in Marlboro at our corporate park that were bent over parabolically from the weight and never quite recovered.

      2. If we get even just “one” foot, Boston would end up easily in the 120-inch range…WOW!!!!

        1. Crazy that Bangor Maine has had over 130 inches and that is not a record when their average is in the 60’s and it will keep snowing there for a while.

  65. A few thoughts on the weather going forward…
    -Tonight will feel like January.
    -Tomorrow will feel like February.
    -The weather Friday/Saturday will be typical March.
    -The last blast of Arctic air, possibly record-challenging, will be in April.
    -I bet you can’t wait til May. 😉

  66. Just saw something bright and maybe what I’d think is very slightly larger than a star fall straight to earth to our south

    1. It’s a very clear airmass and any kind of meteor is going to show up brightly. It may never have reached the surface. Many that appear to do that are simply dropping below the horizon. I’ll scour the net for more sightings.

      1. Thanks TK. It was wayyy cool but off far enough that you are probably right about not reaching ground. There is a rise between us and where I saw it

                1. Trip to beach got cancelled. It was all set Wednesday and then Thursday poof. Not sure what happened. Was very odd. But I figure things happen for best and we will reschedule. Nice of you to ask

      1. No you are suppose to say it’s way overblown. Oh well…ha. Think most of it will melt Saturday?

              1. And I’m serving a Sunday dinner that you can join us for when you finish shoveling…..just in case.

    2. I would say that map seems about right, for now. Regardless, I really don’t see any more than 4-5 inches any given location…probably 4.5″ at most.

  68. TK – Will dynamic cooling be the main theme come Friday night more than anything? Regarding spring snows, is it mostly all about dynamic cooling anyway, as opposed to snows that occur during winter?

    i.e. = 1997 April Fools storm was textbook dynamic cooling…correct?

    1. I’m not a met, but I think the April Fool’s storm was both powerful with thunder snow and involved dynamic cooling of the columns (changeover from rain to snow). The set-up was such that just enough cold air came in coinciding with the storm as it intensified off the coast.

    2. There was a big dynamic cooling factor in the 1997 storm. This will have dynamic cooling involved.

    1. Look closely and you can see the stall, then the loop motion similar to some of the big storms we get that do this south and east of Cape Cod.

      1. Indeed, yet another winter wallop. Watching Halifax TV news is just so calming to me. They don’t hype, they don’t exaggerate, they don’t sensationalize, they don’t flit from one action scene to another, they don’t over-smile or fake laugh or joke around because they’re supposed to. It’s the opposite of hyper. For an old-fashioned person like me, it’s a soothing antidote to most American TV news.

        1. I’ll have to try and check that out some time.

          Not surprised to hear, I find the people up there so easy going. They work hard, but know how to have a good, festive time and take whats thrown at them right in stride.

          1. Them there is my ancestors in law. I have a daily journal from Macs great grandmother whose husband was a Reverand in the Pictau area. It was written in the year 1912. She wrote a lot about the titanic.

        2. When we were in NS most of the places where we went that had TV….restaurants, etc…..tuned into whdh and Pete 🙂

            1. We did a double take first time. Seemed so odd to be far from home and look up to see someone so familiar

              1. Same here the first time.

                Nova Scotia does seem like it is its own place far, far away (I mean that as a huge compliment).

                I really have always fealt like I get away from it all up there and then, all of a sudden, there’s Boston on the TV.

                2. My parents went on a
                  rafting trip at the Bay Of Fundy and they said it was awesome. My mom wasn’t too thrilled but my dad loved it. It’s on bucket list!! A lot in my bucket list :).

          2. I used to do the WGBH Auction and pledge drives, and people would call to bid or pledge from Nova Scotia. They’d tell me that they used to watch a few Boston stations on their cable.

  70. I don’t know how I feel about this Friday night event.

    With the airmass moderating just enough, if the heaviest precip stays south and we end up with more light-moderate precip …… then I could see either …… precip going back and forth between mix and snow or ……………. perhaps its all snow, but being not heavy, struggling to accumulate, even at night, if the surface temp is 32F or so.

  71. 00z gfs about the same showing about 3 inches for boston and more south. Gfs is split between NAM (nothing) and euro (6 inches).

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