The Week Ahead

109 Comments

9:54PM

SUMMARY…
This coming week, the last full week of March and the first full week of Spring, will feature weather fairly typical of March as far as variability goes, but will start out with weather that feels a little more like the middle of Winter, as Arctic high pressure controls the weather Monday and Tuesday. This high slips off to the east by Wednesday and after 2 sunny days to start the week we’ll see some clouds arrive during the day as milder air moves in. A warm front will send most of its moisture northwest of the region but some light rain cannot be ruled out by Wednesday night, especially north and west of Boston. On Thursday, a stronger south to southwest flow will usher in some very mild air in comparison to what we have seen recently. But this will come with a lot of cloudiness and an increasing threat of rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will push through Thursday night, when most of the wet weather will occur. The end of the week and next weekend holds some uncertainty. For now, I’m going to go with the scenario of the front pushing offshore Friday but staying not that far away, so that a wave of low pressure may bring some unsettled weather into the region for Friday night and Saturday. This would be followed by a further eastward push of the front as high pressure noses in on Sunday, bringing dry but cool weather. The end of the week is low confidence and subject to much adjustment.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 10 outlying areas northwest of Boston to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10-15 most areas except 15-20 urban centers and coast. Wind light W to NW.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40, some lower 40s interior southeastern MA. Wind light NW to N.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain at night. Low 15. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/mix at night. Low 35. High 45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 35. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

109 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

      1. The March Wind

        It can be gentle but is often wild
        many times cold but sometimes mild.
        It can soak you with rain or leave you dry
        and sometimes blow snowflakes in your eye.
        Blowing lingering sand from the Winter just passed
        or disturbing a leaf pile that in the Autumn massed.
        Its harsh wind can seem to blow on and on,
        until his days run out and the March wind is gone.

          1. I actually wrote that poem in about 3 minutes in response to your comment above it. 😉

    1. Should be a stellar day. Temps more like a February ski day. Wind will be down from what it is Monday. Strong sunshine though!

  7. Thanks Tk!!

    Day off today!! Back to it tomorrow, looks like a mild week ahead, but with many chances for rain, I agreee coastal the snow pack in Boston area will be gone by midweek, there isnt much snowpack from Franklin southward, and no snowpack providence southward, good day 🙂

    1. Hey Charles , what’s up? I was just wondering how you made out with snow removal this year., did you do it cause I’m surprised I have not heard you mention it here. I was straight out. Hope all is well.

    2. Really only one rain chance from the midweek system, 2 if the front is close enough on Saturday.

    1. You’re persistent, I’ll give you that. And I understand you like spring. But, it ain’t spring at all this week. One day (Thursday) in the 50s with rain does NOT make it a springlike week. 30s and 40s just doesn’t feel like spring. And nothing outside even looks remotely like spring. Granted, south of Providence it probably is a bit more `springlike.’ But here in Boston today looks like a cold late January day. Thick ice on the river. Snow still covering most of the Public Garden. Snowbanks still several feet high with snow piles over 10 feet high in the side street behind me. The only thing that’s different is the strong sun.

  10. Hey Chuck- off today? What gives. I thought you would be out straight liming and fertilizing?..

  11. Yeah we know it’s Spring, but in my yard it sure doesn’t look like it and also it feels far from it today!

  12. Morning. Another boring day.

    JR has 60 for Thursday as did BB last night.
    Likely into the 50s but falling short of 60.
    We shall see, with enough sunshine, perhaps we’ll touch 60.
    Probably not, but maybe. That would be really nice. 😀

    1. Interesting. I heard JR say approaching 60…direct quote. But that was at 6:45. Did he put on his map

  13. Eric F tweet

    @ericfisher: Being forced to run inside when it’s almost April should be illegal. Give it a rest, winter.

    3. I think, if you look at the 00z GFS and get by the mid week warmup, the overall theme of the GFS looks cold the first week of April.

      Cold Canadian high pressure to our north. Also, has a west-east temperature gradient setting up south of New England, with precipitation riding along it into southern New England.

      The precip thing is highly questionable this far out, but a return to well below normal chill, say 37-43F by day, as opposed to what should be 51F to 53F the first week of April seems quite plausible to me.

      Very difficult to see a sustained pattern change coming out of one that’s been in place for 2 months and that also has smaller scale features (where there’s snow cover vs where there isn’t ….. US West Coast warm SST Anomolies, etc) that are going to try to keep the current pattern in place.

    1. CMC has something, but who would believe that model which has had
      really poor results this past Winter season.

  15. Will lose just about all except snow piles by Friday. Only exception will be north facing and or very shaded areas that had the deepest snow.

    Threats of any further snowfalls, though not zero, are limited. Don’t rule out the last couple days of March and again first week of April as the cold will struggle to stay in control.

    1. Yeah my backyard has little bare spots (but snow is very low) while my front yard is around 50% bare and going,

      2. Southern quarter of my back yard exposed to most sun and closest to street is bare. 2 to 10 inches rest of yard.

        1. The farm is getting bare fast. Of course, that’s an open field with no artificially high piles and no trees to block the sun.

      3. We’re still close to a foot.. BUT areas in the Sun are getting really thin. Median strip on Arborway is Bare. My Back yard looks
        like a glacier. Was in South Weymouth on Saturday evening.
        I couldn’t believe how much snow was still on the ground in
        that area.

    2. This would be nice.

      My backyard has a deeper snow cover, perhaps 8 to 12 inches on average.

      Would like to gain back easy access to the shed and the grill and for our kids to have access to their swing set.

    3. I still have 12-15 inches covering my entire property, as well as 2-plus feet where the snow was thrown by the snowblower. I refuse to believe that all of this snow will be gone by Friday, but wish it would happen.

  16. I think some of the perception that it will get much warmer this week comes from looking at the sites that automate the high temps for the next 10 days strictly based on the current run of one model which is also taking into account a climo bias; a la the weather.com’s of the world, accuweather, wunderground, etc. and thinking those are absolute. Applying the current pattern to the equation, abundant cold air supply in eastern canada, a very cold ocean, and snowcover, other than maybe thursday those temps will not reach max potential.

  17. Just landed in Pittsburgh. Not a flake of snow anywhere and it feels nice out compared to Logan at predawn when I got to the airport. Oh, and ALL of southern New England has snowcover from 30000 ft. And that includes Rhode Island.

    Is Rhode Island part of SNE anymore or has it broken off to a southern latitude and I missed the note. Maybe it sits smack in the Gulf Stream now? The ground has been reported “warm”. Just wondering.

    1. Nice report Retrac.

      Seriously though, at what point were you at 30,000 feet? Approaching the CT/NY border? Just curious. 😀

      1. Yeah, right around there. Went over SNE at maybe 15-20k or so average. Nasty cross wind. The take off and rise was brutal. The wings were “flapping”. That’s always fun.

        The short flights don’t go as high as the longer ones obviously. Maxed out at 32k.

        1. Sounds about right. But all of what you said was
          totally valid. Nice perspective from up there.

          Enjoy Pittsburgh.

  18. It’s 24 degrees at my house, I have 12-15 inches of snow covering my entire yard and well more than 2 feet in areas where the snow was thrown by the snowblower. Am I really to believe that most if not all of this snow will be gone by Friday. I have serious doubts.

    1. I wonder if they mean just the untouched snow. However, I also would be surprised if even that is gone here as well.

      1. Guess I should have read up. I agree re piles. Will head out and measure soon. Still would be surprised if all untouched is gone. There is a lot here. But then I’ve been quite wrong before

  19. Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 2h 2 hours ago
    We’re on pace for the coldest March since record keeping moved to Boston Logan in 1936, but Thur/Fri will prevent it

  20. Moving forward the next couple of weeks we’re going to be mostly in the 40s and around 30 at night. Some days will be cooler – in the 30s. Some days will be warmer – in the 50s. But, it’s just not going to feel like spring around here for a while, unless one’s definition of spring is, say, 44F during the day and 30F at night. Not in my book. But then again, I’ve been very lucky to live in places that really do have a spring. Just as I’m very lucky to live in Boston during the fall: A genuinely nice season with generally predictable temperatures and scenery that is otherworldly, as tourists can attest. My test for a season’s specialness is what tourists think. They all love our autumn and are bowled over by it, because it doesn’t happen in many places in the world. Most actually like our winter, because it’s “really winter” (quote from many Dutch tourists who are so accustomed to blah 45F gray skies during winter over there). Most like our summer because it’s “really summer” (again quote from many Dutch tourists who are so accustomed to fickle weather in summer over there). Yet, virtually all tourists I’ve met have little or nothing good to say about our spring. It comes too little, too late.

    2. Interesting comments on “likability” of a season from a tourist’s perspective and i def agree. I will say however Boston’s spring compared to say CT, western MA and even upstate NY can be very different. The cold ocean’s influence and tendency for cut-off ULLs can make boston gloomy and raw for days while areas just to the west are mild with full sunshine.

      1. Agreed. Framingham has a better spring than Boston. Gosh, Newton does, too. And indeed as one goes further inland and to our south the differences are pronounced. I lived in Philadelphia for a bit and actually enjoyed spring there. Sure, there were brisk days, but it was mostly an enjoyable experience. starting in mid to late March. DC has its cherry blossoms, which often come out in late March. DC can go from 40s to 80s in a heartbeat, though, and stay in the 80s, 90s, and beyond. I don’t include 80s and above in my definition of spring.

        My best friend is English. I met him back in the early 80s when I was living and working in Oxford, England. He visited me in mid to late April (April 1997). While we were driving around doing the touristy things like going to Concord to rub in the fact that his English ancestors lost their colony, Alfred said to me, “Josh, what’s the matter with all the trees, they all look so bare?” I had to explain that the trees were fine, it’s just that our leaves often don’t come until very late in spring. Of course, in Oxford, leaves were already out as well as all the spring flowers.

        1. IDK Joshua. We spent last April at the beach – literally – and it was glorious. Every season has traces of the last and then hints of the future. It’s all good to me. We have a majority of family from outside of MA…way outside….and I haven’t ever heard complaints. Mostly, they come to see us and the sights. Weather is sort of down the list of things.

          1. There were some very nice weekends last April, including Patriots’ Day weekend. I’m saying that on average our spring is not something to write home about. But, I know that opinions differ.

            My mother ran a placement service for foreign students for over 30 years. She processed thousands of students from over 100 countries. Most loved Boston, including the weather. Some even liked spring. But many did complain about our spring – or “extended winter” as one German student put it. My ex-wife also loved Boston and its vegetation and climate. More variety and just more interesting than most places. But, she complained about spring, starting around March 1st.

            1. It seems in many cases that those who complain about one type of weather will complain equally about the opposite when it arrives. I think I just have trouble understanding mans love hate thing with weather. I know….I’m in the minority.

              I also think seasons are shifting here.

  21. 12F at my house this morning and still a solid crusty foot in the backyard and 5-10″ in the front yard where the sun hits it. No bare spots.

    Went skiing yesterday at Okemo and was amazed how frigid it was. Temps did not make it above 20 on the mountain and the wind chill was brutal – near to below zero. I have been skiing several times this year and this day was arguably the coldest. Conditions were hard and fast. The mountain was nearly 100% open with 112 trails – the only closed trails were some of the glades because they were too hard and icy. Pretty crazy for late March. The ski areas of northern NE could stay open quite late this year if they want, but I expect many will still close by April 15 as skier usually dies off considerably by then.

  22. I am very disappointed I have not heard from my lawn care specialist, TruGreen yet. It is nearly April and I have not even received a call yet? WTF! I just placed an enraged call with them and told them that other businesses such as Charlie’s Landscaping have already been out liming for three weeks and I want them out here ASAP or I will be cancelling. I’ll let you all know what they say later today!

  23. It really has been cold:

    Terry Eliasen
    ‏@TerryWBZ
    Going back to late January, Boston has had just 6 above average temperature days in the last 58

  24. Mac’s cousin said average temp in Stowe VT was 5 degrees in February. Not sure how accurate that is but wouldn’t be surprised. She went cross country skiing yesterday and it was 10.

  28. I just want to be able to walk outside and be comfortable. Its been a VERY long time since this has occurred.

    2. I am thoroughly disappointed in the Channel 4 website.
      I can’t even look at anything on that website. It is so slow and the
      navigation blows chunks. I truly sucks. Then I start reading something
      and the page scrolls up or down and I have to go find it again.

      The only good thing I was able to take from that was that Barry does Not
      necessarily see an especially hot Summer, which would be very good.

      I still fear a scorcher!

      1. I just go to it and let it do its thing for a minute and then it seems to settle down. I, however, totally agree. If you watch the progression, you’ll see it is loading a bunch of other stuff before it finally settles on the page you want to go to!

  30. I put these pics on FB. Not sure if the links will work. We had a reindeer on the front lawn that was buried until March 10. I’ve been taking pics of it to follow the progression of melting.

    March 10 the antlers began to show up

    https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10478135_442805569217670_613006024573117552_n.jpg?oh=a2c9afe1a8d929ac627572ebf1d24a3f&oe=5570F780

    March 11 a fair amount of melt https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/11073321_442805592551001_5277789310382355275_n.jpg?oh=9f36a78798576a9d2bdcccc9c32d2b14&oe=55B2660C

    March 20 (I got lazy and forgot to take pics) https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/11073282_442805605884333_4750904671868401243_n.jpg?oh=fb5c03179f6af4bca0a22d9a16a11f7a&oe=55BA215D

    March 23 (today) can almost see bottom of his belly https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10393666_444049109093316_7977598487661098186_n.jpg?oh=6c28c9e88c2770fb2849f32cb98dc3cb&oe=55B8DFAE&__gda__=1437987268_32a602eb08f7df28fd2fbc2708e6bded

    1. Awesome. You know what is amazing about those photos?

      After all of the melting, there still looks to be a TON of SNOW!
      Truly astounding!

      1. Thanks OS. There really is a ton. I had to hold the ruler beside all of it because it is frozen solid also.

  31. We have an average of 11.5 inches on the ground with absolutely no signs of bare ground anywhere around us including open fields. I did not figure north side into the average and perhaps should have but there is easily two feet in that area. I just cannot get to it to measure.

    1. Well if you take it as 0-1 below average over 3 months and knowing that April likely starts out pretty chilly at least the first third of the month, that means the departure going forward would not be all that much. 🙂

      1. Agreed. On my initial first glance I was thinking OH NO!!!
        But then I double checked the scale and saw the departure
        was not all that bad and I knew April would at least start out
        chilly.

        So hopefully, once we get through the first part of April, things
        get better. Still I was thinking May and June would be
        above average.

        We shall see.

    1. Oh boy….I had hoped that they’d gotten a little ahead as it was a busy rainy season as I recall.

      1. It was only wet there for a short time when we had the southwestern trough before our big Winter barrage. They’ve been pretty locked in. Kind of like the Plains were in the 1930s.

        1. Pretty sad and if not already, will soon be in really big trouble. Las Vegas, NV is concerned about running out of water completely. Los Angeles is in big trouble as well.
          They really need to start thinking about desalinization plants up and down the coast. But that would be forward thinking.

          Too bad we couldn’t have teleported our snow to their mountains. 😀

          1. In today’s world we should have been able to get some of our excess snow to them.

            Yeah, the long drought out there will have about as much impact on the population as the dust bowl years had on the crops. Different location and impact but still very difficult.

            1. I agree and in today’s world they should have desalinization plants up and functioning. I will repeat Macs mantra…if we think people got nasty when we had an oil shortage, wait until we have a water shortage. And CA is just the barometer. We will all face it

  34. Ch 5 news live in North Attleboro this evening: They may have more snow on the ground there than I do up here. It’s close anyway.

  35. OMG. I can’t get away from it. Snowing right now in Western PA. Light, but I’m gonna jump out of the 4th floor of the hotel regardless.

  36. Looking at the 12z ECWMF ENS Mean vs the 12z GFS Mean, they prognosticate small differences with the western ridge and depth of the eastern trough and end up with different sensible weather outcomes. GFS ENS supports one day of above 50 anywhere in SNE during the next 10 day. The EC ENS supports as many as 5 days above 50. The GFS ENS doesn’t offer anything major as far as wintry weather but it does create an elongated tongue on a sagging front that would deliver .25-.50 of frozen precip to parts of SNE along about the 30th – 31st, while the EC pretty much delivers no frozen precip (less than 0.1) anywhere in SNE during the next 10 days.

  37. GFS Ens with some modified cold makes more sense to my head. I would gladly be wrong andfollow my heart and let the EC ENS lead me astray.

  38. Based on reading the NWS discussion, Thursday’s mild day perhaps might truly feel spring-like.

    I see that they have mentioned that not only may the temperatures reach the 50s, but the dewpoints may also get to 50F or a bit higher.

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