Cold Ease

123 Comments

11:24PM

SUMMARY…
Cold high pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. As it moves offshore you will notice an easing of the cold during the day Wednesday, but clouds will start to roll in ahead of a warm front as even warmer air comes in, first aloft, and then at the surface by early Thursday. This transition may result in some areas of rain, especially northwest of Boston, late Wednesday to the early hours of Thursday. During the day Thursday, a stronger southerly flow will dominate but with lots of clouds and a threat of rain showers in the region between the warm front and an approaching cold front from the west. This front will bring an area of rain showers in during the afternoon and evening, marking an end to the brief warm-up. But as the system exits early Friday, cold air will be slow to arrive at first, so Friday itself will not be too chilly. A more significant chill will return for the weekend, though not to the degree of the current cold. At this time it appears the weekend will be mainly dry with the front far enough offshore to keep additional unsettled weather away. By Monday, a new low pressure area from the west will bring a chance of rain or snow showers.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10s elsewhere. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Sunny except some passing ocean clouds southeastern MA at times. Highs 35-42, coolest in coastal areas. Wind light N to NE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 10s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light rain north and west of Boston late. Highs around 50 inland, 40s coast. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers becoming more numerous west to east late. Lows 40-45. Highs 45-50 South Coast, 50s elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Clearing. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

123 thoughts on “Cold Ease”

  1. Thanks Tk 🙂

    Good morning!! Currently 21.1 degrees heading to around 40 degrees, that’s about 10 degrees below average to date, average high is 49 degrees. I’m not thinking much flooding occurs as most of the snow pack has melted, some areas north and west of Boston could be more problematic. Here we are about 75-80% bare ground. Just preparing for a busy day back down in Providence Cranston Areas today working northward day by day. I think 60 degrees is quite possible Thu. Hope everyone has a great day!! Off to work 🙂

    1. 20% bare here in the same town and my yard gets sun! You must be living in a warm part of town.

    1. Hope so, but the weekend is looking chilly!
      …A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING IN BLUSTERY AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO THE
      WEEKEND.

      1. The NWS has a high of 40 on Saturday and 44 on Sunday for Hanover. Each day is forecasted to be mostly sunny so I feel confident about adding a couple degrees to each.

  3. I think the next big storm threat is around Friday, April 3rd.
    It will likely be a big rain producer, but that is a long way off, so we’ll just watch for now.

    Here is the Euro surface for 8PM Thursday, April 2nd

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015032400/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    500mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015032400/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    850mb (this is why I said likely rain, but this could change. There is cold nearby)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015032400/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

  6. Thanks, TK.

    I’ve been so lucky this winter to be able to run in the brisk, cold. This was probably the last really cold morning. I took in every minute of it, and will do the same tomorrow. There’s something purifying about winter air. I’ll savor and remember it on those July mornings when I can barely breathe and it’s already 80 degrees and sweltering, and I’m exhausted after running a half mile.

  8. Thanks, TK, and, Joshua, totally agree re purifying feel of winter air….although I am standing and not running 🙂

  9. Sign of spring, American red wing black bird has returned to the marshland… this just means one thing to me… the worst season is apon us. Temperature swings Mud, . Time for allergies . … I hate spring. Only two things i like about spring is that i can get out my bike and that is only a few more months until my pool opens. Other than that spring does not need to freakin happen 🙂

  11. Regarding 30s: Parts of the region may stay in the 30s Saturday and/or Sunday and possibly again Monday and/or Tuesday. Not in my forecast as it is written now but is possible.

    1. It can happen any time now if the setup is right even for a few hours. It will be April this year.

    2. Taken literally,

      Logan hits 65F for an average May 11th

      Providence on May 5th

      Hartford, CT on April 28th.

      If I’ve been paying attention well, you are more inland, so, the April 28 to May 5th timeframe seems more appropriate.

      For those along the immediate coastline, the May 11th is misleading because within a couple miles of the shoreline, it will be 65F at noon, but trust me, most of the afternoon is usually in the low to mid 50s. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Yes …. that is an interesting little feature the GFS is showing trailing off the main low.

      It must be showing up on consecutive runs because I remember Taunton NWS yesterday making mention of a weakening closed 500mb feature passing across southern New England during the weekend, that I believe was on the GFS yesterday also.

      1. Not sure what you are seeing. I’m not seeing much.
        Even so, it will be gone with the 12Z run.

  14. More than any year recently, I have the feeling we’re going to get accumulating snow in April.

    Reason ……. That persistent positive PNA. By having the ridge out west (and I see no reason, other than occasional breakdowns, for it to not dominate a good part of April), it puts the trof in the eastern US. That, in turn, keeps enough cold air aloft to put snow in play and it also allows a chance at east coast storm formation.

    If I had to put a percentage chance at it, I’d put it at 60% of ……. say, 2-4 more inches of snow at Logan during April.

    2. I have no basis for my feeling other than my belief that seasons are shifting (said that 🙂 ) and the winter we have had not seeming to want to let go. Based on that alone, I agree, Tom.

      2. I’m assuming the hypotheses comment was for Tom because I never hypothesize and the science was for me because we know how scientific I can be 😉

  15. Red-winged blackbirds have made their flight back. But, thus far they’re not chirping all that loudly. I hear a few mating calls. But, here’s where I think instinct comes up against frozen reality. Subfreezing temperatures aren’t conducive to birds socializing.

  16. Just came in as I was outside in Copley Square.

    BEAUTIFUL out there. What a nice day. WARM sun.
    Crap loads of melting going on. Puddles everywhere.

    On the way back to the office, car was reading 39. Felt like 55.

    1. I know it is colder than 39, but believe me it feels much warmber.
      2PM at logan, 32 with SEA BREEZE from SE. 😀 😀 😀

      HIGHER than 32 down town for sure.

      1. What I fear: Seabreeze at the coast. And this year that seabreeze will be cooler than most years because of the cold water temperature. I believe the harbor’s temp is around 34F. It’s distinctly colder where I work – close to the water – than my home, which is only about a mile away.

  17. Sad day in Europe. As you know, the German airliner crashed in the southern French Alps. It’s an area I know well from having done some mountain climbing in the region in the late 1980s. My former sister-in-law is a nun in a convent about 65 miles from the crash site. She’s in the foothills, about 1500 feet in elevation. The plane appears to have crashed at around 6500 feet. That’s a little higher than Mt. Washington’s altitude. It’s a snowy region above 4000 feet, and they’re expecting more snow tonight and tomorrow which will hamper the search operation.

      1. I’ve been blessed by having had the opportunity to live in Europe (Netherlands and UK) in the 1980s and early to mid 1990s. I did plenty of traveling as a student and later when I was raising my family.

    2. Sad day indeed. Mac is also familiar with the area and we have been watching closely. Tragic in all senses but perhaps so many younger folks on board makes it a bit more so. Mac’s sister has always been a hug fan of the Airbus. I believe they did find a data recorder.

      1. The loss of so many school children and several newborns breaks my heart. Any loss is tragic, but kids are kids. They had a world open to them to explore and discover, and now that world is closed. So sad.

        I believe oxygen depletion may be the cause. Nothing is certain at this time. In 2005 a Greek airliner crashed as a result of lack of oxygen that incapacitated the crew. There are several parallels with this crash. This could also be the cause of the Malaysian airline disaster last March.

        1. I haven’t talked to my SIL yet. I know it is an area she is also very familiar with as her days with pan am were all international. Mac wondered about oxygen also. As you know, as most know, it is an unusual time during a flight for a crash. The pilot seemed from some reports to be descending as if to land. Just heartwrenching.

          1. Given the pilots’ experience, the aircraft involved, and the fact that no distress call was sent out during the 8 minute descent, it would seem that the crew was incapacitated in some way. Oxygen depletion is the most plausible cause.

  21. Go to your nearest snowbank or if you have snow still in your yard, give it a farewell till next Dec, seeing lots of baby blue violets in sunny areas especially near homes, it’s beautjful out 🙂

  22. This is funny

    Ryan Maue retweeted
    Dennis Mersereau ‏@wxdam 3m3 minutes ago
    This severe weather event has met all of The Vane’s criteria for a name. This is now Severe Outbreak Borpo. Please advise friends/relatives.

  24. I think next week looks like many days in 50’s and even 60’s, guys and gals spring has arrived, time to change the WHW PIC 🙂

    1. Sorry Charlie, I was raised when words must have had different meanings. Not quite following you on “beautiful” (above), “many” (above) or “warm” from previous. Not trying to nit pick you but I am fussy about the English language on occasion.

  25. Oh, and I get hyperbole from time to time when trying to make a point but man you’re killing me!

  26. Got into the low 50’s out here in western PA. Blue skies, calm wind. It wasn’t beatiful but real close. I’d say it was “wicked” nice out.

  27. I do have to say i kind of agree with charlie, a lot of snow has melted, the marshland shows it. almost up to the old lake bed. about a foot of snow is still on the ground but thats with a lot of drifts and stuff . I have bare spots in my back yard by the tree’s to 2 feet in the pool area snow banks are about 3 feet. red wing black birds are full force its what woke me up this morning

  28. Oh yeah, he’ll be correct eventually. Just that his narrative hasn’t dovetailed that well with the record setting snow and persistent cold we’ve experienced this winter. I know he means no harm, it’s just that this is a very bright group here and it’s a little tough to swallow it as anything but an intent to insult our collective intelligence sometimes. Sometimes you should have to defend yourself when your opinion and views are so wildly different that what is observed by the majority.

  29. Charlie, the coming week here and there a 50F plus day, but mostly 40s with an occasional 30s day thrown in for good measure. I do think N Attleboro will be milder than Boston. Today’s a good example of that. In fact, most of New England was milder than Boston. In my book, you could say that spring has arrived when the interior west and north is consistently warmer than Boston. Problem is it won’t be consistently so. Still some real cold to contend with the coming weeks. Most of it will remain in Northern and Central New England, but some of it will filter down into SNE. Don’t be surprised if Saturday remains in the low to mid 30s, with Sunday barely cracking the low 40s. After that I see mixed signals of some warmth moving in for several days, possibly followed by some cooler air with possibly mixed precipitation by the weekend.

  30. What you guys talking about????

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 18m18 minutes ago
    expect to be surprised by Saturday snow in southern New England
    again this Saturday..
    oops, so much for the surprise

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 17m17 minutes ago
    Need to be watchful Saturday…GFS has inverted trough signature nearby. Long shot for now but we’ll see..

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5UrpPWUAAjLbj.png

    1. I think it would be a bigger surprise if we had Saturday snow on a day other than Saturday. 😛

  31. Driving home today, car thermometer hit 41.
    Arrived home and I couldn’t believe how much snow melted and how
    big the puddles were. It’s going fast now.

      1. Wouldn’t take much of a wobble to clobber us with big time
        April Snow. I’m certainly NOT saying that will happen, but
        this really needs to be watched. Signs have been there for awhile now.

  33. Bring it on O.S. I still think we need a big storm to break this pattern once and for all. And if that’s what it takes, so be it.

    1. Sorry,

      I have no say in the matter. We’ll just have to sit back and watch what
      happens. 😀

      1. Yeah, we’re just observers (sadly sometimes), otherwise I would have ordered up 60f and sunny for 31 straight days this month.

        Imagine what the politicians would with weather if we could control it. Talk about a weapon!

      1. It may finish lower due to mild weather tomorrow, especially Thursday and Friday. So Sat, Sun Mon and Tues would have
        to be pretty chilly to maintain #1 status. I doubt that happens.
        Top 5 or 6 perhaps.

        1. It doesn’t even matter at this point OS. The “oil man” already took his piece and my lawn still can’t be limed. It’s like a football team down by 30 pts. in the 4th quarter putting up three hail Mary TD’s to make the score look closer than it actually was.

  36. As for melting….still cannot see reindeer’s belly so not much if any here

    For RI. The coast, e.g., Westerly as example, does not have snow. Hopkinton RI has spots of snow. Moving inland there is snow but spotty south RI moving to areas of snow and grass mid and then to snow as you move up past providence. My son said if I ask him one more time he will accuse me of having short term memory loss :). He has been telling me this for a week.

    1. I don’t doubt those snow reports at all. RI had less snow than most of MA, especially central and southern areas. My friend in Bristol had about 50% of the snow that I had up here. Not only is it a milder area as we head into early Spring, but they had much less snow to melt down that way.

      The bare area on the south side of my lawn nearest the street is getting larger, but as of today still a snowcover maximum about 10 inches in the lower part of the yard (no drifting there).

      1. Not even a small bare area here. I keep thinking we should have at least one. I am feeling left out 🙂

      1. He really usually opens it a week from this weekend. I bet there is really snow on the pool cover at his house.

  40. Hello, and yes going out to work, we have increased from 2 to 3 vans and you guessed it, we are applying a multical lime app, all of these visits are all in Warwick/EGreenwich, and many landscaping company’s performing spring clean ups, especially e greenwich, it really is looking like a very mild week ahead. Also I liked to add, I’ve met u retrac and you seemed to be a very nice intelligent person, I don’t ever report things that aren’t true, I just don’t live in a snow zone, right now there is 0 yes 0 snow in my yArd, and it’s just piles which will be gone within a day or 2.

    33.3 degrees, goodnight 🙂

    1. Your comments carry less and less weight every time you post. Your incessant calls for spring which started in mid February will eventually be correct.(sigh) A broken clock is right twice a day………..

      1. Charlie, doing a drive by for a pic tomorrow at your house! Sile out front with all the snow in your yard 🙂

  41. Thanks for the link Old Salty for the snow map.
    If that happens we COULD have a white Easter!

  43. This is a repeat of a statement from last week:

    White Thanksgiving
    Green Christmas
    White Easter

  44. I can’t remember the last time there was a snow on the ground Easter morning in my life time. I do remember it snowing couple times on Easter while having dinner with the family.

    1. We had a white Easter in 1978 around my area, as a couple inches of snow fell that morning then changed to rain.

      1. There was one in the 60s. We came out of the restaurant and there was snow. I seem to remember I had my license so perhaps late 60s

  45. Charlie is definitely right about coastal RI. Tends to be the mildest part of NE – besides CC and the Islands – and also tends to get less snow. Spring starts earlier there. And, fall foliage ends late there.

    However, in spite of lots of snow loss in urban Boston, I’m still amazed at how much is still on our city sidewalks, in the Public Garden and Esplanade Park. Walked down Marlborough street just now. Certainly did not feel like spring. Still chilly. And still snowbanks of 2 feet up and down the street, with occasional 3 foot piles. Same thing on the Commonwealth mall (strip of green that divides Comm. Ave), with piles reaching 4 or 5 feet in spots. All of this snow is from February, which makes it even more remarkable. I’ve seen snowbanks and piles in March from March snows, and these tend to melt very quickly. But, it’s rare in late March to see any snow left over from February. It’s been that cold, folks. And, it’s not going away without a fight.

    As I mentioned in my previous post, I think you can knock down some of the forecast temperatures by a few degrees the coming 10 days, and throw in several chances of at least mixed precipitation. It’s going to struggle to warm up, with the exception of Thursday and possibly Friday. Even on Thursday, I don’t see Boston getting to 56F. I think 53F may be the high, with 48F the high on Friday with tumbling temperatures as the day progresses. Next week I don’t think it gets above 50F in Boston. Mid to upper 40s, yes, but no 50s. May be some 50s inland … and 70s all week in N Attleboro.

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