March Moods

173 Comments

7:28AM

SUMMARY…
You’ll see several sides of March during the next 6 days. Mild air flows into southeastern New England today as a warm front lifts north of the region and a cold front approaches from the west, but don’t expected a sunny Spring day. Clouds will dominate along with patches of drizzle and a few showers, then more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and into tonight. After the cold front gets through the region it will slow down offshore and upper level low pressure hanging around will keep clouds dominant Friday, with rain showers as the colder air is slow to arrive, then with snow showers Saturday as the colder air indeed arrives. Sunday also looks chilly but brighter as high pressure moves in. That high will be around for a short stay as another low pressure area approaches Monday with a return to clouds and the threat of some rain showers as it turns less cold. But another shot of cold is likely to arrive Tuesday on the back side of the departing low pressure area. March exits and April arrives as Tuesday becomes Wednesday next week, and looking ahead we may have a nice day to welcome the new month. But if we know anything about April in this part of the country, don’t get used to nice weather because pockets of cold air aloft that often traverse the region, and a cold ocean sitting next to us often have other things to say about the weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle into mid morning. Isolated rain showers through early afternoon. Numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs in the 40s South Coast, 50s elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the morning. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 38.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 46.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 43.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 53.

173 thoughts on “March Moods”

  2. Big snow melt today but now we’re at the stage where flooding is a little less of an issue except in prone areas. Storm drains are clear other than leaf/trash debris that may be there. Still could be some poor drainage flooding later today and tonight in areas that see heavier rain.

    What happens beyond this 7-day forecast period may be quite interesting but we’ll get to that later. 🙂 In the mean time OS will keep you updated with regular model posts. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK. Crossed under 8″ average snowpack in the last 12 hours, now have a small patch of grass next to the base of a tree to watch grown.

    Starting to plan spring events. Registered for Minis on Top in June. Highlight of the trip is the ascent up Mt. Washington in time for sunset (been 50/50 in years past on whether you can actually see it!). They always offer a handful of spots for an observatory tour which is a good take.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Captain that sounds interesting. Will tell son about it as I’m not sure he is aware

    1. Ahhhhhh. I was thinking minis meant kids. I see it means mini coopers. Still sounds like tons of fun

      1. it is a good time, started going in 2008 and have only missed a year or two since

        though my wife and daughter take a pass on it now, it has become more of a father and son trip!

  7. Thanks TK !

    I see a few binovc …… if we get a lot of them, where could the temps go ? 🙂

    Today’s snowmelt should be helpful in preventing too many more high temps in the 30s, as at least during daytime, the sun’s energy can go into drying/warming the ground, as opposed to being reflected back into space.

  8. OS looks as if you were correct. They think copilot took the plane down. Any crash is horrendous. But this makes me sick.

    1. So very very sad.

      Now I ask the question, was the co-pilot just depressed and wanted
      to take his life with total disregard to all others aboard? OR was he a terrorist who infiltrated the ranks of the airline with the full intent of carrying out
      something like this at the appropriate time.

      I am sorry, but after what happened here 9/11, I wouldn’t put anything
      past these SICKOS!

      Too much of this going on. My inquiring mind says something else is at work here other than a bunch of depressed pilots.

      AND IF it really is depressed pilots, then the airlines are NOT screening
      and monitoring their personnel properly.

      Although it is fiction and not a depressed pilot, but rather an addicted pilot,
      I invite you to view the film: Flight, starring Denzel Washington.
      Unfreaking believable and scary as shit.

      1. I had those same thoughts and expect many do as well. I can’t imagine the thoughts going through the pilots mind as he tried to Break into the cockpit. He had to have known what was happening

  9. I see thunderstorms mentioned in the blog for the first time this year. Thankfully no severe weather here should any thunderstorms develop. Unfortunatley that was not the case in parts of Oklahoma yesterday with tornadoes there.
    The storm prediction center has some new labels when outlining thunderstorm risk areas. Before it was slight risk, moderate risk, and high risk. Now there is marginal risk which parts of the Mid Atlantic have today, slight risk, enhanced risk, moderate risk, and high risk.

    1. Yes, I can’t believe that the poor souls in Moore, OK were subjected to
      another Tornado less than 2 years since that devastating EF5 they
      endured in 2013.

  10. TK earlier wrote: What happens beyond this 7-day forecast period may be quite interesting but we’ll get to that later.

    What do you mean? 😀
    The possibilitiy of SNOW in April? Say it isn’t so. No, impossible! Just ask Charlie…
    Winter’s Done Bud! 😀 😀 😀

    1. It’s not impossible to see it snow in April, but it’s near impossible, and it’s rare to have accumulations 🙂 just being realistic, and this April will be another April that will have no accumulating snow 🙂

      2. Charlie, according to facts measurable snow occurs just shy of 19 percent of the time in April (using data from last 95 years). That is clear not the definition of impossible.

        I suspect the definition of impossible might be more accurate if we applied it to your understanding the definition of realistic 😉

  11. Old Salty that town and the area around there to me is a tornado magnet. Of course in 1999 there was an EF 5 tornado that came through that area.
    Thankfully here in New England the types of tornadoes they get there are rare. Give me 2 feet of snow over a tornado any day of the week.

    1. Indeed. Who needs a tornado around here.
      Hope we don’t have any this year. Last year was enough.

    2. There r folks that have lived in Texas for 40 yrs and have never seen a tornado, it actually effects a very localized locales 🙂

    1. Looks accurate for here and down through hopkinton, milford and into Uxbridge. We noticed on 85 just south of Hopkinton HS yesterday that some clear patches were evident (they were a week ago also). The snow cover is perhaps 25 percent of what we have here. Into Uxbridge the snow cover, with grass patches but still about 80 percent cover, was closer to 50 percent of what we have here.

  13. 44 degrees!! In Cranston today applying lime visits, starting Fertilizations Monday in North Attleboro, couldn’t be happier on the way this March has gone 🙂 enjoy the day 🙂

  14. That EF 2 tornado from Revere was something. No tornado warning yet as you pointed out that day Old Salty when it was happening there was a definite tornado signature with that thunderstorm.

    1. That was frightening. I could see something happening as the
      cell went over the City just prior to touch down. I detected what I thought
      was a rotating wall cloud. Probably was.

      1. You are referring to the Revere tornado, OS? And I remember well that you saw the rotating wall cloud — before any of the professional mets. However, that is not the first time you have done that.

  15. Then the EF 1 that touched down in Worcester in August in the early evening hours. Earlier that day in Wolcott, CT EF0 tornado. Just like the Revere tornado no warning with that one.
    I believe the SREF model was dead on in the Revere tornado as well as the Worcester and Wolcott, CT tornado highlighting those areas and sure enough there were tornado touch downs.

    1. Yes JJ, the SREF, specifically the Significant Tornado Ingredients
      chart. It had 15% for the areas affected, which is pretty high for here. NOT
      so for tornado alley, 15% would be considered very low.

  16. Let me make a correction there was a tornado with the one that touched down in Worcester. There was no warning with the tornado in Wolcott, CT.

  17. The Easter nor’easter on the 06z GFS looks like it means business. I would imagine the snowfall projections are not factoring in any dynamic cooling very well as the precip looks to be very intense. Will be interesting to see how this models out on future runs. After the February barrage of snow it has been kind of tame from a snow storm perspective so I wouldn’t mind one last hoorah to close out the season. Whatever falls will be gone fast anyways

  18. Hats off to those here who told us earlier this week that the high temperatures predicted for today and the next several days were too high. As for melting, it is happening, but I wish you all could see how much sniw still covers my property in North Reading.

      1. same up in Groveland. I think we will lose quite a bit today and tonight though and more than any other day we’ve had thus far.

  20. Here is a foreboding tweet from Eric Fisher. I wonder IF he and TK have been chatting. 😀

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 14m14 minutes ago
    Seriously starting to wonder when we’ll be able to say “we’re all done with snow.” Several more chances through mid-April.

    1. I know. Wasn’t it great. Was it that summer we lost power because of Irene? We lost power over Halloween the next year also for several days 🙂

  24. I haven’t been chatting with Eric Fisher recently. We are just looking at the same info. 🙂

  26. Big pattern change will get underway Earth Week April 20-26. I’m returning from Florida on April 21 with it. 😉

    2. That’s also a majority of school vacation week.

      Perfect ……… assuming the big pattern change is to normal or above normal temps.

  27. Captain I remember that storm well. Had a foot of heavy wet snow. The storm caused the biggest power outages ever in CT.
    The previous storm was Irene.

    1. Correct. We bought a generator before Hurricane Irene struck. Lost power for almost a week and used the generator again w/the Halloween storm. Ironically, we have not used the generator since 2011! I still change the oil 2x a year and fire it up occasionally – especially before forecasted wind events.

      1. Once again I should read all comments before I reply. Mac would like a generator. Outrageous I say….positively outrageous 🙂

        1. you may borrow mine any time… if I am not using it for the same storm!

          I need two more extended warm weather power outages to break even on the what would have been spoiled food or one extended cold weather power outage for an insurance deductible on frozen pipes.

  28. That storm for the time of year and the amount of snow it delivered was impressive. I went out for a drive that Sunday after the storm ended tree branches all over the place. This was the most damage I have ever seen from a snowstorm in my life and there were people without power for over a week. I was out of power 3 days just like I was during Irene.

  29. I don’t know if it makes it in here …. and I suppose we are already in one warm sector already, but there is a second, more impressive warm sector down the coast that is making northerly progress.

    Nearing 60F in southern NJ and it goes up from there.

    I have a funny feeling ahead of the cold front passage later on, even in the rain, it might be getting towards 55F to 60F or even slightly higher for a short time, as some of that gets brought up right ahead of the cold frontal passage.

  32. I’m only looking briefly at the 12z GFS and 48 hrs out …. or around 8am Saturday morning, seems like there’s some light-moderate precip falling and I can see that the thicknesses are lowering …………

  33. Once again a day that is cooler than anticipated. Nice temp for sure. Not uncomfortable like yesterday evening – mid 30s and sleet/rain never feels good, ever.

    I see most forecasts have adjusted their temps downward for the coming week. That was inevitable given what I’ve been seeing and trying to interpret on the models, but also seeing in terms of where our weather will be coming from the next few weeks. We will have some westerly flow which should gets us in the mid to upper 40s on most days (note, 50s will be very hard to come by, except in N Attleboro where 70s will be the norm), but we’ll also have a northerly flow similar to what we’ve had from late January through early March. Not only will the northerly flow days be much colder, there will be snow chances associated with them.

  37. Just getting home after having been gone for a few days. Still 100% covered in yard. Depths range from 6″ to 12″+ in some spots. arghh…..

  38. 12z GFS still showing major storm for around Easter. It also shows something for the middle of next week potentially via a clipper type system. Whatever happens around Easter looks to be big in terms of precip. Too warm for snow, at least to start

  39. NWS is also on board for something to watch for Easter weekend. It wouldn’t be the first Easter to have serious accumulating snow, but I believe it has been many years.

  40. That 12z run of the GFS is insane and not all that plausible. It actually is doing things the ECMWF had been doing. Moving systems in to the NE USA too fast, deeepening them too much, too fast and then slowing them down and holding on to precip NAM style. My favorite part of the 54 hour kitchen sink event it throws down upon us beginning on Easter is the 1-1.5″ of rain in 6 hours.

  41. Absolutely beautiful day. Smelled like early spring (did you guys know winter is over) when we left mid morning. Rain smells like spring rain. And we were treated to blue sky and warm temps while we waited to have valet arrive with car at Brigham. John, what did you do with the snow in there?

    It was 55 from Boston straight out to Framingham according to car thermometer

  42. Sunshine around 11:30 here allowed temps to briefly eclipse 50. Now cloudy with some sprinkles and back below 50. Sixty was a mere pipe dream.

    2. Stuck at 52F (Boston). Feels nice, but not especially warm. This morning was similar in feel. Did not feel like it did two weeks ago on that warm day. I think that was the Wednesday that spring happened in SNE.

      Really sick to my stomach about the airline crash. Natural disasters and mechanical failures are one thing. But intentionally killing 150 people is just unfathomable, cowardly, sick. Lufthansa will face some serious scrutiny as it should regarding: a. policy of leaving co-pilot alone, without even a cabin crew member accompanying the co-pilot; b. no psychological testing of pilots, at least not once they’ve gotten their license to fly with Lufthansa. I think these exams should be mandatory on an annual basis. It appears that regular psychological exams are not part of their current policy, which is disturbing to me. Medical exams are NOT psychological exams. Declaring somewhat “fit” to be a pilot – Lufthansa CEO used the word “fit,” based merely on a medical exam – is nearly worthless. Finally, the media keeps saying passengers didn’t realize the danger they were in until the last moment. Sadly, this is NOT true. Unless you’re sleeping, you’re definitely aware a plane is descending as rapidly as it was. Plus, you know it’s not supposed to descend there. Furthermore, no announcements were made from the cockpit regarding why they were descending. Finally, it’s a mountainous region. Most people will have been aware that something serious was happening. This makes the incident all that much more awful.

      1. It is an unfathomable tragedy, Joshua. And if the pilot was pounding on the cockpit door and trying to break it down, you’d think that the passengers would have heard.

        What was brought up in a discussion I read was that they keep saying his breathing was even. No sign of becoming rapid or distressed. And one report said he was alive when the plane crashed because his breathing could be heard. How does any human being keep his breathing even when he knows he is about to die (and take 149 folks with him)? I thought perhaps he took something to make him unconscious but the plane descended as it would for a landing. Or perhaps, that is something that is accomplished with the advanced technology of that particular plane and he was unconscious but alive.

  43. Last evening I was at work in Allston and it was sleet/hail much of the time which whitened the ground a teeny bit but according to the climo report from Logan, it was only light rain for the event so there is no change to the current snow total. It is very interesting how different parts of the city experience sometimes very different conditions not more than a very few miles from each other.

    1. I felt sleet on my head walking home from work. No whitening of the ground, but definitely frozen precipitation.

  46. Philadelphia, Atlantic City …. down around that area, all up around 60F, with dewpoints close to that as well.

    Don’t give up on closing in on 60F yet. May happen later this evening, just prior to cold front passage.

    1. I believe this very warm air just to our southwest, riding up and over our less mild air, is the reason scattered heavy showers are breaking out.

  48. HMMM

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 15m15 minutes ago
    Still looking like snowy potential on Saturday. Tricky call on how this pans out, but a coating up to a couple inches is on the table.

    1. No. What I heard was that he accelerated speed to maximum possible just
      prior to crash.

      Until proven otherwise, I consider it a terrorist attack. Call me crazy of you will.

      If someone is distressed enough to commit suicide, they would NOT take
      the lives of 150 others with him. There are oh so many options to get the
      job done without taking anyone else with him.

      1. Ahhhhh – I hadn’t heard that. I have to find out how much the technology (which as we know is very advanced) takes care of landing approach. If it takes it to a certain stage and the pilot then takes over, could that alone accelerate? How does a person’s breathing remain steady during all of that?

        2. If one is doing it in the name of “substitute what you wish here”, then I think it is entirely possible to do this while
          remaining very calm.

          1. I just saw a report from New York Daily News and Daily Mail that he stopped training in 2009 for six months due to depression and burnout. Other reports said he stopped for six months but not why

            2. That’s alarming.
              It’s one thing to take one’s own life,
              but to take 150 others at the same time???
              I’m having trouble buying that. Not saying it can’t be so, just very troubling to me.

            3. If this report is true, then why oh why
              were peoples lives entrusted to this
              individual??? Airline going to face a ton of scrutiny.

  52. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    [4p] Drive-time heavy showers / t-storms; be prepared for low vsbys at times; ponding of water on roadways

  53. So, the GFS has been colder and offering systems with snow possibilities, but not the EURO.

    12z though has an April fools morning low overhead SE Mass, crossing from the mid-west. It has below 0c 850 mb temps aloft and of course, 12z is 8am in the morning, so, coming just past sunrise, a time when snow could probably accumulate in a light to maybe moderate event.

    Wonder if there will be any consistency to this.

  58. I think it’s folly to suggest possibilities other than suicide/terrorism at this time, given what we know. Every action taken by the co-pilot, including manual descent against protocol, acceleration, blocking of cockpit door, disabling code re-entry, etc … points to deliberate mass murder. Unthinkable, unfathomable. I’m nauseated by it.

    1. Your thoughts are well respected both with weather and such. Heart wrenching tragedy! To many crazy things going on the world and just increases day after day.

  59. With possible snow this upcoming weekend, how many completely snow-free weekends have we had since the weekend of January 26th. I think only 2 or 3. Unbelievable.

    1. It is amazing for sure. It will be interesting to see if we get
      accumulation during the day Saturday. Temperatures will be
      in the 30s. May come down some during more intense precip.
      We shall see. Not sure how well the snow tools deal with that.
      We’ll find out.

  61. On the plane I was on this morning, pilot came out for bathroom run and the stewardess went into the cabin while the other stewardess blocked the aisle intentionally with the cart. Basically a phalanx.

    Two peeps in the cockpit.

      1. It became protocol after September 11. If there is another pilot on board, he will also go to the cockpit

      2. I fly regularly and indeed the cockpit is supposed to have 2 people in it at all times. I see the captain or first officer going to the bathroom, and usually the lead crew member then enters the cockpit. Clearly, this was not Lufthansa/Germanwings protocol. Lufthansa has a lot of explaining to do, even though most of the things that happened were according to company protocol. I’m baffled about the fact that Lufthansa does not regularly (annually) do a psychological exam.

        2. It isn’t protocol through a lot of Europe, Joshua.

          And an interesting detail just surfaced which makes me wonder again if he was conscious as I am still stuck on regular breathing.

          Transponder data show that the autopilot on Germanwings Flight 9525 was reprogrammed by someone in the cockpit to change the plane’s altitude from 38,000 feet to 100 feet, according to Flightradar24, a website that tracks aviation data.

  63. There will be lawsuits – wrongful death – brought against Lufthansa/Germanwings. I’m sure of this. I’m NOT a litigious person at all, but I do think that in this instance Lufthansa bears some portion of responsibility. While I feel badly for the CEO of the company, I am shocked that a company with its reputation would (post 9/11) have such a lax, basically non-existent protocol for cockpit exit and re-entry as well as code re-entry, as well as no psychological exams for pilots. Really, really head-scratching.

    1. The flight attendants in the US are evaluated only on hire. That surprises me. There is rigorous eval for pilots. But anyone can slip through cracks I suppose

      1. We’ve learned from examples that have happened in the past. There are exercises in place that are practiced to ensure that similar situations don’t happen again (united States). Such as Flight deck will not be left alone. There is too much at stake for U.S. airlines reputations and the pride of ensuring all passengers are safe. God bless the U.S. and all who strive to keep her safe! Not a political statement, just my thoughts..

        1. I agree. The odd part is that in many European countries extensive security checks were in place long before they were in this country.

  66. Storms firing in south-central PA.

    Ah ….. Wind calm at Logan, additional warm air getting cut off at the pass. Up to 57F in Providence, RI.

    1. As well as train engineers, bus drivers and many others who we rely on to get us to our destinations safely. I believe only those in law enforcement get frequent psychological exams…at least I hope so.

  68. Heavy, dense fog in Andover temp @45 and DP @42. On that note, I’m in the market for a mid-high end weather station. Currently working with an ACU-RITE from a couple of years ago. It’s not to bad but would love to have a top notch instrument without braking the bank.

  69. Simply tragic…Let me ask you a question.

    If it was the co-pilots intent to crash the plane, why didn’t he just nose-dive it instead of a gradual descent?

    May everyone who lost their lives in the crash rest in peace. My heart goes out to all of the families.

    2. Because that is not something you just make a plane do. A plane will auto correct itself. In fact, over certain terrain, you will not be able to get a plane to fly below 100′. Many people believe that a pilot / co-pilot can simply override the computer whenever they feel like it … in some cases true and in most cases not true.

      1. Still a good 10 inches around. Had a dream about mowing the yard last night. Dream now; yes, can’t wait! 10 weeks from now; nightmare! LOL!!

      2. Yeah I had decent snow in my yard too but that is mostly gone. Only the tall piles where snow was thrown really remain.

  73. Absolutely the worst ground fog I have ever seen. I Just drove to the store and in my neighbor hood it went for clear visibility to completely white in a matter of seconds. Be careful.

        1. You are so right. I just looked out window. We have a very short side street and I cannot see either end.

  77. New line of heavy showers forming on Mass Pike, then west southwestward onto Rte 84 into Connecticut.

    We had summerlike torrents around 6pm and some additional heavy showers in the last 15 to 20 minutes.

  78. Hadi, I am aware that U.S. pilots are not tested either. But, having lived in Europe I am very surprised Lufthansa doesn’t mandate psychological testing. For many jobs in Europe psychological tests are routine. I had to take them for a management consultancy position in Holland, and would have had to take one for a government job, too. They are rigorous stress tests that are meant to get you to the breaking point. I wouldn’t advocate them for most jobs. In fact, I didn’t like doing the “psychologische testen” in Holland. Yet, it is standard operating procedure there for quite a number of jobs. Similarities between Germany and Holland are striking. Hence, I’m assuming Germany also often employs such tests. I am also shocked that Lufthansa would have such a lax procedure for cockpit exit and re-entry. In my view, even if the company policy wasn’t violated some regulation was. Not so much for the extremely rare cases of a suicidal maniac, but more for the more common cases in which a co-pilot or pilot is incapacitated due to illness. There’s got to be someone there to allow the other pilot back in.

  80. Will be updating tonight sometime…

    -Still not sure why the random messages going into the awaiting-moderation folder, other than it’s a WordPress issue of some kind.

    -Today’s weather worked out as expected. Was not anticipating 60 and it did not occur. BUT, still quite mild and lost a lot of snow where it was. There are still some exceptions in sheltered areas. My friend’s back yard up on the hill in west Woburn has between 8 and 16 inches still on the ground, covering the ENTIRE back yard between the house and the woods on a north-sloped hill.

    -Rumble of thunder audible from here just after 5PM as part of that initial line that moved through around that time.

    -The heaviest stuff should be winding down around midnight, but we’ll stay cloudy and occasionally wet into tomorrow. However it will start to turn cold enough for sleet to mix in within precipitation areas that are just heavy enough.

    -Inverted trough set-up for Saturday with mix/snow (mostly snow), and 0.10 to 0.30 inch melted, translating to a trace to a potentially a couple inches of snow (on unpaved surfaces). At this point the greatest chance looks like it will be from the Boston area to interior southeastern MA and northern RI. But inverted troughs are tricky things so stay tuned for more on this.

    -If you are looking for a sustained warm-up, it’s not coming any time soon. A few additional snow/mix/rain threats during the first week to 10 days of April.

      1. And can you please make the piles on our deck go away. We cannot have window replaced until they do and this room looks like a dungeon without light 🙁

        1. Should continue to steadily lose it even with the return to chill. Hoping it’s soon!

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