Sunday Morning Update

122 Comments

8:00AM

SUMMARY…
Quick update now with full discussion later. High pressure & sunshine today, but chilly. Low pressure passes north of the region Monday, early-day warm front may cause a few flakes of snow, late-day cold front will bring scattered rain showers. Low pressure exits to northeast early Tuesday with a northwest flow pushing some cold air back in. Another low passes to south Tuesday night and may bring some snow to parts of southern New England (better chance south, less chance north), but is gone by Wednesday which turns out nicer. Larger low pressure area passes northwest of the region late Thursday through Friday, warm front Thursday returns clouds and an eventual rain threat, cold front later Friday with rain showers but milder before it. The chill returns by next Saturday behind that departing low.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouding up west to east overnight. Lows around 30. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light snow early. Scattered rain showers midday and afternoon. Highs around 45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow at night, especially southern areas. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 50.
THURSDAY: Clouding over. Late-day rain. Low 30. High 45.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM light snow showers. PM light rain showers. Low 30. High 45.

122 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  3. Thanks Tk 🙂

    Good morning!! I think 60’s is very feasible next week, arod I don’t throw stuff out for bait, if I think or see it on models I’ll mention it, hadi well we’ve never seen eye to eye and that’s fine, but don’t say I’m just saying it to say it, again on some models they r hinting at 60’s maybe 70 degrees this week. Don’t be so uptight just because winter is over, your supposed to be happy it’s springtime. Enjoy the day!!

    4. Charlie….just curious. How come you respond to questions you are asked that you can respond to with contention and you never respond to requests for validation of your comment? You have at least a healthy dozen of those outstanding.

  4. 2″ from yesterday. Looks like midwinter outside. 100% snowcover continues…….. sigh……….

  6. Charlie, just like your advice on not taking models verbatim on the snow accumulations yesterday, 70 degrees on “some” models will not be realized. A little meteorology and common sense goes a long way, and both ways in this case. Can’t pick and chose.

    1. I think we would all welcome 70 degree weather but cramming it down our throats is not going to make it happen 😀

      1. Well in his defense most people on here go for the model with the most snow and rarely apply meteorology. Point is…if it’s ok to do that for cold then why not warm? I have no vested interest in this battle but there is a degree of hypocrisy around here at times.

        2. WW I think it was exactly that hypocrisy Ace was pointing out. And in all honesty I see equal posts of models showing both lots of snow and little snow. I know for a fact OS, as an example, posts all and doesn’t limit to just big events. And I also believe meteorology is not rarely applied. There are always excellent discussions

          1. Not sure I take the one with the most snow and go with it. I like to think that I present all of the models for completeness.

            Now I certainly would WISH for the one with the most snow, but not necessarily forecast the one with the most snow. On occasions I would, IF I had reason to believe that particular model would verify for whatever reason whether it be meteorology, gut feeling or something else like recent model performance or model bias.

            Do I think we’ll see 70s anytime soon? Nope.
            Will we? Who knows. We shall see.

              1. I certainly WISH for the model with the most snow. No DOUBT about that. You can honestly say I ALWAYS go with that???

            2. Old salty if someone reads your links, he or she will note that you post all…..and do not limit to just big.

  7. So if there is a little snow this coming weekend, it means snow occurred 11 weekends in a row.

    1. I wonder if records are kept on such things. Would be something else, wouldn’t
      it? This weekend is April. No fear as it does not snow in April. 😀

  8. Good morning.
    60s and 70s? Pleeeeze

    What happened to the big 60 we were supposed to get last week? i rest my case.
    We shall see.

    Re: Wednesday
    Interesting. Gfs and Euro go South. CMC is a graze mostly along the South shore,
    while the still not quite in range NAM, wants to give us a direct hit.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015032906/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

    I’m not saying we will get a big snowstorm or anything close, just that I don’t see
    it passing too far South of us. Again, time will tell.

    Re: Saturday
    Now appears this system will NOT go North of us. Could be a miss South.
    That needs to be watched.

    Beyond that, the GFS presents us with three (3) consecutive cutters passing
    NW of us. Is that for real? OR do they end up being coastals?
    If the pattern truly changes, they will be WARM cutters for us.
    IF NOT?????????????????????????? watch out!

  9. Blue Hill realized a total of 5.0 inches yesterday. Unbelievable seeing I’m 8 miles from there and got virtually SQUAT here!! 😀 😆 👿
    Can you say ELEVATION?

    BlueHill Observatory ‏@bhobservatory 2h2 hours ago
    0.6″ snow from 5PM DST Sat to end of storm totals 5.0″for season total 150.8″

    1. I think you could almost see this, (not quite to the extent of 5 inches) on the tops of tall pine trees that maybe were 25 ft above thr ground.

      There had to be a good 1 inch on the tops of the pine trees, yet maybe nothing or the lightest coating on the ground.

      It was both neat and strange looking.

      1. Agree. It was pretty fascinating to look at.

        I’ve seen Blue Hill decked in snow before while the surrounding
        area was bare ground. Doesn’t happen very often. Too bad
        there was so much snow around anyway, else it would have
        made for a Tremendous photo!

        1. I wonder what it looks like approaching Blue Hill on Rte 128 southbound.

          I think its a spot, maybe 2 or 3 miles prior to where you hit the breakoff for Rte 24 south.

          You can get a brief but decent view of Blue Hill. I wonder if you can actually see thicker snowcover towards the top ??

  11. Defending Charlie only encourages his childish behavior. Charlie will eventually be right about the warmth, but let’s not forget he’s been saying this since November. Other than Charlie this blog operates as it should with excellent dialogue and thought provoking comments. Charlie you really need to grow up. I’m 29 and amazed at your lack of maturity.

    1. See that’s where your wrong, childish? Lol I think it childish when people get so mad when I say spring or winters over, it is!!!!! A few on the blog need to grow up, then Ya wonder why I don’t comment back, this is the last I’ll say about this, enjoy the beautiful day 🙂

      1. I LOVE the warm weather…equally as much as snow and cold, its just not as interesting to blog about or follow. If you could discern the difference between how you post on this blog and how others do you would understand why you rub people the wrong way sometimes.

  12. 12Z NAM is chugging and depicts a rather vigorous clipper over Lake Michigan
    at hour 45, or 9Z on 3/31 and Diving SE towards the coast. Watching its progress. 😀
    Does it move too far South, just right (or wrong) or too far North? Big question.
    It’s a Goldilocks situation for sure.

    1. Emerges off the Central New Jersey Coast at 8PM Tuesday evening.
      500MB wants to nail us, but 200MB says no so fast. Close call for sure.

          1. That was my feeling. Put it in the update above in case. If tonight it looks S, I’m sending it that way. 😛

            1. It wouldn’t take much of a wobble to get it in here. That is oh so close.

              There’s probably “some” wiggle room.

              However, other model consensus has been South, so that would be the idea here for sure.

              We shall see.

  13. Well, if nothing else, the comments section is a good place to come for a laugh or 2. 😀

    The readers are smart though. I get emails. They know where the best info is coming from. 😉

  14. oooooo we’re starting to get into name-calling…

    Might I have to start deleting posts again? Don’t make me do that! It messes up the order of the posts and then I have to delete good ones to fix it. 😛

    And don’t bother asking for names, I’m not giving them today. Sorry! It’s not a school room, so you’ll all just have to figure it out for yourselves. 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

    HAVE A NICE DAY LOVELY PEOPLE. 😀

    I have many things to take care of in-house today, but I’ll be watching. 😛

  15. Hey TK – Headed over to Europe this week. I’ll be in Poland Monday – Friday, and Paris Friday – Monday. I could care LESS about weather in Poland, as I’m there for work, but I would love to know if you have thoughts on a long range Paris forecast! I imagine there will be at least some rain…but I’m hoping for some sunshine too! Thanks so much in advance!

    2. I do see on the 8-10 day GFS, a ridge of high pressure over both Spain and France, so ….. that would suggest higher chances of good weather and lower chances of poor weather.

      Of course, that is 8 to 10 days out ……

    3. I do agree with the high pressure ridge idea there. Probably dry weather, cool mornings and mild afternoons. Have to watch for some very foggy overnights and mornings.

  17. Eric seems to have at least a slight concern Clipper Tuesday night might trick us all
    and move a bit farther North. At least watching it. Here is his tweet:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 8m8 minutes ago
    Just gotta keep an eye on the Tuesday night clipper. If it comes north a bit, could bring some more snow to the area. #NoThanks

    2. All I’m doing with it is a middle of the road play for now (worded above as a better chance to the south). GFS (last few runs) is south, NAM (12z) is a graze with a bit more for the South Coast. Such a small system and a fast flow that we won’t really know until inside 24 hours.

  18. It was interesting driving yesterday, the comments about the pine trees was spot on in my area. They had their own accumulating snow event above ground. Reminds me of the signs I see more often in Texas than New England: Bridges Freeze Before Roads.

    Now the ground in Texas is rarely frozen for extended periods of time, but I wonder if it was just cold enough 10′ or 20′ above the surface in my town to pull it off. The winds were light and precip was rarely heavy, so the air temp may not have been homogeneous. It was 33° at the surface for most of the daylight hours.

    1. This morning I was driving with my mom and we noticed some evergreens with sun-side bare and shade-side still sprinkled with snow from last evening. 🙂

  19. Sump pump started going on today, guess the melting and recent rains started catching up with it. Underground pipe is frozen where it evacuates the water to further out in the yard. Thankfully I had them install a break in the pipe coming out of the house before it enters that pipe or I would be seeing a flooded basement right now :). Nice day today, not too much wind. Get out an enjoy! Hopefully we are entering the last few weeks of this pattern!

  20. Fifth anniversary today of the historic southern New England floods, March 29-early April, 2010. 16.8″ of rain for the month of March. More than 7″ for March 29-30.

  21. Outside my home office window this morning. You can see the top of the head of the miniature snowman starting to emerge. One of the many Christmas decorations ruined by the snow this year, because I was lazy and did not get them in on time. My neighbor across the street is lucky. The sloping, south facing part of his yard is bare ground and has been for about a week.

    https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/qX4mMUb1zRjg6IHwpdO8CHFrKwW7ia3vs5imGBiS_fg=w233-h311-p-no

  24. Pretty chilly for March 29th. Sitting at 37.2
    Forecast high was 42. Will we make it later in the day????

      1. That sounds much more realistic. Ave high is what 50?
        50.4? something like that. 12 Degrees below average.
        That is some cold.

        Will March go out as the coldest on record? Going to be close,
        but I think we slip into 2nd to 4th place. We shall see.

    1. An ill placed wave can still hit us pretty good. Needs to be watched.
      Move that wave North of us, we shoot into the 50s, perhaps 60s. Keep it way south and we are dry. Place it in the wrong place, we get SNOW.

  26. Snowfall @ Logan to date = 110.6″

    Does Boston reach 120 inches??? The CPC certainly supports it…very consistent to say the least.

    1. Snow map

      3-3.5 inches for Boston and considerably more South like 6-8 inches or so.
      Based on 10:1 ratio, which would probably be close for this event, since most
      would fall at night.

  28. I have a pretty strong distrust for the CMC right now.

    I could see “moveable” snow (that is, at least having to use a shovel to clear walkways in the morning) from the Tuesday night event anywhere from the Pike area southward, as it stands now. Continue to monitor…

    1. Agree on the trust. I put it out there because of the shift North.
      It “may” actually mean something. We just don’t know yet.
      Waiting on the Euro, which I am sure will be South. 😀

      1. It’s important that we see it. If you see a consistent error on any model you can use it to your forecasting advantage.

      1. I think there was some sort of mean trick played.
        I saw it posted. When I look him up, it says he
        died 5/29/2010.

        Not sure what is going on.

        It was an OLD FOX news post. My bad for not looking more
        closely at it. So sorry.

  30. Euro appears to be coming in South for mid-week clipper as expected.

    Will watch next frame to make certain.

      1. I wouldn’t mind if it stayed way down there. I have a very busy week. March Madness transitioning to April Chaos. 😉

        -helping with Dad as usual
        -2 aunts in hospital…
        -I have a hospital test Thursday
        -planning and executing Easter shopping and much of the dinner with my brother so Mom can enjoy without much work
        -holding down the fort this coming weekend while the rest of the family is at Anime Boston

          1. It’s a 3-day gathering of fans of the anime style of cartoons/movies/tv/books/etc. … My entire family is a big fan of it so they go. I don’t go. I don’t mind a little anime but my interest pretty much maxed out with the Speed Racer cartoon and maybe Battle Of The Planets cartoon back in the 70s and early 80s. 😀

            1. Well things I learn. Very interesting. I’ve said before I was never a big cartoon fan. The only one I remember watching (and suspect there are some I have forgotten) was Top Cat.

              Mac subscribed to the Globe online. He has always liked cartoons. His comment the other day was that they are not funny any more.

  31. Ran the 10k Cohasset Road Race. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, who cares. Well, the reason I mention this is the following: I had not been out of Boston for a while. I have observed dwindling snow banks and piles in Boston (though still there). Boy, was I shocked by how much snow is still in towns like Hingham. Absolutely astounding amounts for March 29th. Hingham must have had at least 2 more inches last night, a lot of which is still there, folks. Even on tree branches. We’re talking March 29th on a sunny day. That is rare. Usually the March sun melts snow on trees just like that. Driving through town I hardly saw any grass. Drifts of snow half way up backyard fences. Snow piles over 5 feet, with a fresh 2 inches on top. A mid-winter scene in late March. Remarkable. It is for this reason I cannot understand where Charlie is coming from. Unless North Attleboro is peculiarly immune to accumulating snow, there’s no way it feels or looks like spring there. In any event, the South Shore most definitely does not look or feel like spring. Beautiful day, yes. Warm sun, sort of. But far from spring. And very far removed from 60F. I’m sorry to report that because I know many of you want warmer weather.

    1. I for one want the warm weather despite how much you know I love SNOW. I’m realistic however and realize that prolonged warmth and spring-like weather is not in the cards for many weeks to come 🙁

  32. Mother Nature does not give a flying squirrel’s toenails what anyone wants for weather. She will decide for all of us. 😀

    I just want to be able to get up and enjoy every day. That’s good enough for me. 😀

    2. How very much I agree, TK. I look out the window and no matter what I see, I am very happy to be part of it!

  33. Today’s CPC continues to show cold & stormy through Easter and beyond. Is Easter weekend still the target timeline for potential snows TK?

    I am pleasantly amazed at the persistent consistency of accuracy by the CPC much of this winter and now early spring.

    1. Makes sense given the persistent jet. Cuts the warmth off around the Mid-Atlantic region, leaving us in one of the few (only?) cold sectors in the nation.

    2. I would not rule it out, but we’ll need things to come together properly to have that result. There will be a series of short waves coming along the flow and plenty of cold nearby.

      1. As always the case with spring snow events especially, things have to come together just right of course TK…and I still have the shovel close by until mid-April. We should be done thereafter I would think. 😉

        Thanks TK! 🙂

  35. Jet stream is configured in such a way that pulses of energy will be sent our way periodically. Mostly rain shower events, but some mixing and snow at night. I don’t think we’ll see warm temps this week. Could be a day or two above 50F, but it’ll mostly be a week of drab, 40s weather. Nothing to write home about.

    By the way, the Air Canada crash landing may have been caused in part by the snowstorm Halifax was getting. Boy, have they been absolutely hammered. It looks like the clipper system this week will hit them again with heavy snows.

  36. I suspect some of the 60-70 degree temps you may (or may not) have seen on TV weathercasts the last few days will be adjusted down closer to 60 for Friday and the middle to upper 40s for Saturday next week. We will get into a warm sector for several hours Thursday night into Friday but that’s about it.

    Jury is still way out on whether or not we get through next weekend storm-free. Will depend on short-wave timing.

    1. It is fun to just be close. It seems most are on 7 day forecasts. I think everyone, including mets, know they are anything but firm. Only ones who do not seem to get it are the management heads 🙂

      1. I believe the highest temp I have seen is 66 by Barry. I have not seen any 70’s other than Charlie.

      2. I put the “60-70” there because I knew there were a handful of 60s in the forecast but did not remember anything specific other than BB’s 66. Basically the thinking here is that I believe newer and more reliable guidance will aim most of the local mets to a shorter-lived warm-up. 🙂

          1. May have been. Not sure.

            I buy a 60 for Friday. I had 55 because I was splitting the difference in a couple models. I will probably go up a bit, but not to the 68 that BB has now. He did take away the 66 for Saturday and replace it with a 48. He has Thursday at 58 but I see it as being 8 to 10 cooler because I think the warm front will be slower getting here. But that’s several days off and our differences of opinion are only natural. You can make an argument for either scenario, or even something completely different…

  37. Nice job on the spring background on the blog TK. The purple color on the side is outstanding. Thanks!! 🙂

    Btw, Mike Wankum has flurries for Easter Sunday.

    1. Thank you. 🙂

      M.W. would probably be basing that off a shortwave that is modeled by the GFS to come through around that time along with a surface trough and air cold enough to support snow showers.

  38. The CPC outlook supports more cold & stormy beyond Easter, so I doubt we will be out of the woods, agreed TK? Does mid-late April support the real pattern change?

  39. 60F plus later this week AT THE COAST (hence, Boston) is not supported by common sense. At least, I hope I have some common sense. Maybe the models indicate it will happen, but with cloudiness and a south-southeasterly breeze low 50s (perhaps even only upper 40s) is probable at the coast, while warmer temps will be inland.

    As I said last week, chop a few degrees off of each forecast high for this week’s daily temps. I think the models are not handling coastal conditions well. They didn’t last week, and I don’t expect any different this week. Any wind off the ocean is still very cold. I’ve run the Cohasset race many years and it’s not been this cold in all my years of running it.

    1. I think with slow enough timing of the cold front and a surface SW wind, 60 is attainable at Logan on Friday. That is the only day I can see it happening at this point.

      We have now reached the point where the snowcover is becoming patchy across the southern portions of New England so the refrigeration effect is minimal, and as long as your trajectory is over land long enough and not more directly from Long Island Sound right up to Boston, then you can warm it up pretty decently.

      With all that said, the timing of these systems is far from certain.

  40. I noticed that Barry has flurries for Easter Sunday as well…and that 68 for Friday is way too high IMO…the highest I have seen a on a 7-day so far this year.

    1. We’ll get there eventually, but I don’t think it’ll be this coming week. However, warm air won’t be all that far away so I suppose anything is possible. Mr. Burbank would not put it there if he thought it was impossible to achieve. 🙂

  41. I see 65 on both BZ and whdh for Friday and 59 for wcvb. We have been very close to 60 already in Boston but it is five days out

  42. Working on The Week Ahead shortly. I may cheat a little tonight and use an abbreviated format. Working on in-house projects, busy week ahead, 2 aunts in hospital with one doing very poorly (not really a surprise), and a Florida trip only 2 weeks and 3 days away!

    1. Good luck this week. Your week sounds a little bit like mine. But, yours is even busier.

      Warmth will be quite close. I think DC and Philly could get to the 60s and low 70s Friday, and west of us another warm air bubble will be forming. But, New England will mostly be under the influence of some still cool Canadian air.

  44. Thank you!!

    Just posted The Week Ahead. Take late-week with a few salt-grains. It’s low confidence right now.

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