Still A Chill

100 Comments

12:16AM

SUMMARY…
Another chilly day coming up Tuesday as we say goodbye to the month of March. A small clipper low pressure system will pass south of southern New England at night, tossing some high cloudiness into the region, but this cloudiness may be a little thicker near the South Coast. There is a slight chance that a little snow/mix may occur in this area. Regardless, that’s out of here by Wednesday morning and a small area of high pressure will provide nice weather for the first of April. But systems are moving right along and low pressure will be approaching from the west Thursday, with its warm front spreading cloudiness into southern New England, followed by a chance of rain late in the day and at night. On Friday we’ll end up in the mild air as that warm front lifts to the north of the region and a cold front approaches from the west. This will trigger rain showers later Friday and especially Friday night, based on current timing. As we get to the weekend, colder air will return. There is some question of whether or not a low pressure system will form on the cold front as it gets just southeast of the region. If this happens, some rain or snow may occur early Saturday. Later Saturday expect increasing wind as a new cold air mass arrives. This cold air will be around for Easter Sunday. A weak disturbance may result in a few passing snow showers on that day. By Monday of next week, warmer air will be approaching again from the southwest and this will send cloudiness back into the region and some chance of wet weather returning.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20s inland valleys, lower 30s elsewhere. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high clouds especially in the afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy South Coast with some light snow/mix. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Late rain. Low 25. High 45.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM snow/mix. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Low 25. High 40.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late rain. Low 25. High 45.

100 thoughts on “Still A Chill”

  1. Thank you TK

    Maybe we could hold off on rain showers until late Friday night. Would love to get out after work.

  2. Thank you TK. Pretty typical Spring forecast.

    Somewhat concerned about Saturday. Ensembles appear Colder than operational
    runs with wet weather in place. Operational runs want to place a system to our
    NW with rain. Ensembles have it just to our East with rain and/or snow.

    We’ll need to watch that closely.

    Still a considerable snow cover around here, even in sunny areas, although it
    is showing signs of thinning out for sure with occasional bare spots in sunny areas.
    Drove by Putterham Meadows golf course last evening in Brookline, about 2-3 miles
    from my house. Sunny area fairways still 90% snow covered.

  3. Latest SREF brings some snow tomorrow night just about to Boston.
    Most North of all models. Most keep it more South than that.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f033.gif

    6z Nam

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015033106/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png

    6Z GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015033106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4.png

    6Z RGEM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015033106/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

    Looks like Toast around here. We’ll watch for any last minute wobble to the North. Doesn’t look like it at the moment.

  4. Regarding ICE around the area.

    Jamaica Pond is still frozen solid. For safety reasons, I wouldn’t want to venture out there, but I’m pretty sure we could safely walk all over it. Wonder when Ice out will be? It’s usually out by April 1st. I can only remember once or twice where it was ice
    covered after April 1st.

    Was by the Charles River in Dedham. Total Ice Out there. Free flowing water.
    This is around Rt. 1 by the Dedham mall. The River just doesn’t hold the ice unless
    it is consistently below freezing, at least up stream where there is some current as opposed to the basin.

  6. Good morning to Ya!! Temp is 32 degrees heading to around 50 degrees, we are in north Attleboro, Attleboro, Plainville, and 1 in Franklin bc she has a party in mid April and wants the greenest lawn by then, we are now applying early spring Fertilizations, don’t be suprised if some are mowing in as little as 3 weeks 🙂 enjoy the day!!

      1. You don’t have to read, No one is forcing you too, next time u post and your comment is something most of us don’t care about I’ll let u know, arod I get up to 25 emails a week about the wonderful blog that are not able to comment. Sometimes your comments are good other times ekkk, keep your negativity to yourself thanks 🙂

    2. I read mowing in three weeks and nearly spit out my coffee. Thanks for keeping us entertained. I am hoping my lawn is dry enough in three weeks to think about having my lawn guy do his work.

    2. Yikes is right Vicki.
      It is currently on a path to the Philippines. Let us hope it moves
      off course and misses it.

      By the way, I guess the tropical storm season is way different for the North Pacific???
      That’s an awfully early season storm, isn’t it??

      1. Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 11m11 minutes ago
        Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April. Only 15 such storms have been observed between 1945 – 2014…..

    1. I respect your viewpoint, Charlie. But sometimes you go a little far with the use of the word “balmy.” Maybe it really is balmy down your way, but my feet are cold, the heat’s still on continuously, and although it looks great outside it’s far from pleasant and delightful.

      I do wish you luck with your work. It’s got to be difficult this year, in spite of your spring optimism.

          1. I usually go look to Facebook comments on news stories to provide my daily dose of head-shaking laughter, would rather not see it here

    1. Awesome shot. Nice!

      Charles is getting pretty high as well, but NOT as high as I have
      seem most Springs. Frankly, I’m surprised by that. Must be due to
      the slow and steady melt without any 3 inch 60 degree rain storms.

      Hope the Sudbury doesn’t rise any farther.

      1. Sudbury has been high since the December rains. It hasn’t dropped at all this winter. If we have spring rains, may not be good for that area. It seems Pelham Island Road is a bit of a canary in the mine.

        1. And thank you, OS. Was a quick shot out the window of the car. There isn’t a place to pull over and a car was coming up behind me.

        2. That area is really prone to flooding.

          Was it March 67 or 68 the area was in really tough shape.
          I think route 20 in Wayland was under water.

            2. Actually one you are remembering may have been then but there was a bad flooding of 20 in early 80s IIRC. That’s when Raytheon was evacuated

  12. NWS out of Upton, NY take for tonight.
    OBS AT 11Z INDICATED THE SFC LOW WAS NEAR FAR NW OH/FAR NE
    IN…WITH 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS IN ITS ADVANCE SUGGESTING A
    PATH ESE TOWARD PITTSBURGH PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
    SUGGESTS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHERN LOW TRACK FORECAST BY THE NAM MAY
    VERIFY BETTER TODAY…AND IN FACT THIS FORECAST LEANED MORE
    HEAVILY ON A NAM/ECMWF BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
    FARTHER SOUTH GFS

    2. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 3m3 minutes ago
      A little rain or wet snow may nick The So. Cast & The Islands tonight..rest of us stay dry #wcvb

  13. On a sad note, my 89 year old Aunt Barbara (real name Agnes), also my Godmother, passed away this morning. She joins her sister Irene and her brothers Joseph and Ernest in a peaceful place. We will miss her.

    6. So very sorry to hear of your loss, TK.
      My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family during this difficult time.

  14. I think if anything for my area just get clipped by some preciptation. NWS out of Albany was thinking around an inch for my area on the grassy surfaces. I think this is shoreline of CT NYC area system.

  18. The local ponds I’ve seen r still frozen except there’s a 10-15ft water ring around the pond where it meets the land.

      1. As you saw in my pic, the sudbury is not frozen to banks. I was thinking that if it is thawed at bank which is the shallow area, the center would be very unstable. Is that the case?

        1. Certainly. Once it comes loose at the banks, it’s
          well on the way to opening up completely.

          The rivers come free before the lakes and ponds.

    1. There are winter weather advisories posted for parts of Northern, NJ and NWS out of Upton was discussing the possiblity of
      expanding them.
      This to me looks like a sneaky LITTLE system where a slight jog north could make a BIG difference. Will see.

      1. Of course. Should it job to the North it will create problems
        farther North. Does not look like that will happen, however.

  20. 18 years ago today was the start of the April Fools Storm that lasted into April 1st. This ended up being my one and only snow day in April. I was so happy school got cancelled the night before so I could stay up and watching a thrilling NCAA championship game between Arizona and Kentucky with Arizona winning in OT at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis.

    1. I was on a day business trip to Dallas and ended up stuck there for two days with no change of clothes! What a storm that was.

  25. Next week may be one of those weeks that stays in the upper 30s and 40s all week with onshore flow, low pressure to the south, high pressure to the north, and a frontal boundary stuck south of the region.

  26. For this event tonight, less than 1 inch of slushy snow possible along the South Coast and that’s it. Already a strong SE push approaching from NY State that should push that thing right on out.

  29. I second the “ugh” Alisonrod uttered regarding next week. Miserable should that verify. No, wretched. With my current job on the line I can’t take a week off to go somewhere, but I sure wish I could.

  30. Sorry for your loss TK.

    Per the 12z Euro, and some other models, winter is far from over in SNE. The Euro run was one of the most wild I’ve seen all season. Looks like a strong inside runner for Friday/Saturday, so probably rain for almost all of New England on that one. But there’s a threat of a sneaky clipper early next week, and then things really get interesting in the day 8-10 range, with a lot of possible outcomes on the table.

    1. Indeed. Our reward is autumn. Nothing beats it anywhere in the world. The light, the foliage, the warmth during the day and crisp nights, the smells, the tranquility. Only 5 months to go.

      1. I suspect autumn is my favorite but if you ask tomorrow the answer will probably be different. I figure every day is a reward. And I love the change up and never knowing what comes next.

        1. I like all but SPRING. Spring is clearly my least favorite, unless it is one of those beautifully mild/warm Springs that are few and far between. 😀

        2. Unfortunately, we won’t be able to enjoy much change around these parts. It will be like Ground Hog’s Day every day with sub seasonal temps 😀

  35. Hadi did you share the ISS photo of that typhoon here ? What a spectacular picture. If I said that on FB they’d think I’m nuts but it took my breath away

  37. Greetings from Warsaw! Incredible city, if you ever have the chance to visit.

    There was a bit of wet snow here today (mostly mixed with rain, and only for about 5 minutes) but I thought I was having a bout of PTSD for a second!!

    Looks like a dreary next week ahead in Boston, perhaps with some snow chances?? Sounds like spring time in New England (and Poland?) though! Enjoy a bit of warmth this week, blog buddies!

  39. Not sure if any of you remember Michael Page from Hinghamweather.com and the WBZ weather blog. Looks like he is joining the weather team on NECN as Joe Joyce has moved to NH1 in NH as Chief Meteorologist and Nelly C has been moved to afternoons from evenings.

  40. THANK YOU ALL for your words of comfort! Always nice to know how many people care. 🙂

    My aunt was not well for quite a while and is now at peace.

    …..

    Looking over the weather and will update the blog later this evening. Can start to get a little more detailed about some things. I’ll post to let you know when the update is done. It may be a little later in the evening.

    1. She is a peace but never makes it easier for those left behind. Hugs and prayers for you and your family TK

  41. Just came in from running some errands.
    Sky is perfectly clear after being mostly clouding coming home from work at 5PM.
    System Never had a chance to get up here. That’s for sure.

    More melting going on today. We are getting there big time.

    Tomorrow will be April 1st and other than having a snow event on the 1st or the day before, I don’t EVER Recall having the ground snow covered from Winter snows
    on April 1st. Perhaps it has happened and I just don’t remember. Growing up
    we were always playing baseball by the 1st no question about it.

    1. I was thinking the same thing on both counts OS (both the existing snow cover and the current sky conditions).

  42. In the 90 days from Jan 1st to March 31st …..

    January : 19 out of 31

    February : 27 out of 28

    March : 23 out of 31

    69 out of 90 days ……. slightly more than 75% of the days at Logan were below average temp wise.

    I can only hope the next 60+ days (April and May) fare a little warmer, but, I’m not holding my breath.

    1. That is amazing. Thanks for sharing.
      Not for the next week+ that’s for sure. Hopefully after that.
      I just hope it’s not like Winter 2 years ago where we were continually told the COLD was coming, but it never came. Hope it’s not the same with the Warmth.

      1. I’m just concerned the warmth has a lot to overcome ……

        The southern parts of western Canada, the northern Plains and most of the western US are so warm. Its just going to be so easy to buikd atmospheric warmth out there and I’d think that will reinforce 500 mb ridges.

        And the above SST off the west coast.

        I see the long range models changing the pattern to a wetter west coast and more trofiness out there, but I’m skeptical.

  45. I decided to welcome April by sitting on the porch. Windows of course are in and I dragged an electric fireplace out here but candles and fire and music fun

  46. I just hope for a nice sunny day on my birthday April 18th with temps in 50s and 60s.
    I have seen it all when it comes to weather on my birthday with the exception of thunderstorms.

  47. well i guess i really can not say that more snow is on the way as an april fools joke since it very well could happen lol

  49. Next week looks beyond ugly. Highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s and on and off rain and maybe even some flakes. Thank you NE spring 🙂

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