April Can Still Fool You

85 Comments

7:26AM

SUMMARY…
So in comes April, but don’t be fooled. This month, like March, has its fair share of built-in volatility. And this April will start out just that way as we remain in a transitional pattern. High pressure makes today nice, but a warm front arrives Thursday with cloudiness, maybe a touch of very light rain in a few locations briefly then brighter and milder later in the day. But clouds return at night and Friday as cold front approaches. This front will bring rain showers at times on Friday and as it passes it will slow down and park itself across southeastern New England. This will allow a low pressure wave to form on the front and come right up across the area with a period of rain Friday night which may end as snow in parts of the region morning or midday Saturday. The rest of Saturday will feature wind and falling temperatures with lots of clouds remaining as low pressure starts to move away. This will lead to a cold Easter Sunday (any surprise by now?) with maybe a passing snow shower as a small disturbance move through. The early part of next week looks unsettled as a warm front approaches Monday. Not sure if that front gets all the way through the region, but it would probably be unsettled Tuesday either stuck just north of the warm front in the cool air with some rain or between a warm and cold front in milder, showery weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a slight chance of very light rain mainly north central MA and southern NH. Partly to mostly sunny mid afternoon on. Highs 50-55, 40s South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Windy. Low 50. High 60.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain ending as snow AM. Mostly cloudy PM. Windy. Temps fall 50s to 30s.
SUNDAY: Sun and clouds. Slight chance of a snow shower. Windy. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Low 40. High 55.

85 thoughts on “April Can Still Fool You”

  2. Thanks, TK.

    So much for my saying spring is tranquil and peaceful in the Netherlands. It is usually is. But, across a wide swath of Europe gales have raged almost incessantly for the past 3 days. Forecasters liken the gales to autumn storms, but of course it’s not autumn. It’s spring. Until Sunday, Holland had experienced a very mild and relatively sunny March after a pretty much non-existent winter. Hence, the gales have come as a surprise. It’s not cold, however, as the storms are generally bringing southwesterly gales across that region. This means temperatures are mostly in the low 50s during the day and mid to upper 40s at night.

  3. Thank you TK.

    I know you don’t want me to say it but this is a very difficult week for you and we are all fine here. Just take time away. And of course if you are not comfy with that, I can always write the new blogs 🙂

    1. I’d volunteer to write a new blog as well, then I think NO ONE would want to read it.

      1. hahahaha – I would and there is a whole lot more chance folks would read yours than mine 🙂

  4. Thank you TK.

    Good morning.

    Nice but rather chilly day for April 1st.

    Every time I look at model runs, the low pressure center for Saturday gets closer to us.
    Probably will remain either just N&W or over us to prevent a snow storm.
    As TK says, “perhaps” ending as a bit of snow in some areas. That could still change a bit.

    What concerns me after looking over the charts is April 11th.
    It certainly would be my luck to have this end up a monster snow storm
    since we have big dinner plans to celebrate my Wife’s and Son’s birthdays, which
    fall a few days either side of the 11th. We have reservations at Ruth’s Chris in Downtown Boston.

    Hopefully it remains a rain storm or moves through prior to the 11th or after the 11th or even better goes POOF. GFS, EURO and CMC all have it to some extent or another.

    Had some more melting yesterday, but still plenty of snow around my neighborhood.

  6. Mendon’s drive-in opens this Friday. Last time we drove by (last week) it still had complete snow cover. Not deep but all snow.

    1. I can’t even remember the last time I was there. Certainly been by there
      recently, but the last time I watched a movie there must have been in the
      60s or 70s. 😀

      1. Hash. And phantom gourmet guys own it now

        OS we went a couple of years ago but kids and teens running everywhere. I’m
        Too old for it now 🙂

  7. Welcome to April!

    The snow/ice glacier in my back yard is showing signs of retreating, there are a few spots of grass emerging from around the base of the trees.

    Last year in mid-May I went out to Denver for business and it snowed a few inches. So spring can be fickle.

    Town/club soccer practices/games remain on turf, first time on grass will be at least two weeks out, maybe longer.

        1. I don’t think that. I think it just means
          one of us posts our version of a blog entry?
          OR perhaps TK gives us special access and one of
          us actually posts the next blog entry and it stands until TK decides to post the next real one.

          Something along those lines.

    2. Hmmmm – I first thought that you meant guest blogger as in commenter and open up the blog. Then I remembered someone suggested doing the blog topic for you. It scared me when I mentioned it…..not sure if it should scare me more now if you intend to give everyone a shot 🙂

  9. NWS has not discounted accumulating wet snow for early next week.

    I have also noticed that the blog is starting to get quiet again. Even prior to our February snow blitz, it was busier saying “winter is already over” if nothing else. 😉

    2. I do believe there is a strong, but small, group of year-round contributors to the blog. There are also seems to be a seasonal group that really love the action surrounding snow storms. That aside, there are others that fall out of those patterns.

      Admittedly, I will be absent for months at a time during the spring/summer/fall, poking my head back into the Woods Hill Weather here and there.

      1. I’m generally here all of the time, but will not be as active
        when things are quiet.

        If there is any kind of anomalous weather of any sort, I’ll be here.
        OR even anything interesting at all. When it is dull and boring, it will be quiet here for sure.

          1. Once we get past mid-month, I will likely be posting less as well, but I will never totally disappear either.

  10. Here’s what I was talking about with successive model runs getting closer for\
    Saturday.

    Look at a couple of 12Z NAM frames

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015040112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=072

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015040112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=075

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015040112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=078

    Note that sometime between 72 and 75 hours, the 850MB 0C line sinks south and east of Boston. Now, to be sure, boundary layer temperatures at that time are somewhere in the low 40s.

    NAM does NOT call for snow here, however, with those 850MB temperatures
    and surface tmep in low 40s, with decent intensity, it “could” mix or change to SNOW!!

    This CANNOT be ruled out at this time. We shall see.

  11. NWS notes that very cold air will be lurking to our north along with moisture to our south for next week, probably through mid-month so I am not going to even remotely consider putting away my shovel for now. It is amazing though how the upper Midwest where chances of white Christmases are always near 100% and yet are enjoying nice spring temps at this time.

  12. Just went home for lunch. Nice day, but noticeably cool out there.

    Jamaica Pond still frozen from shore to shore. NO ice free water near shore.

    Melting in the Sun still going on.

      1. Compared to the Brutally COLD Winter, it’s nice out.
        Is it below Average? Sure. It’s all relative.
        I’m actually OK with this, add some moisture and East Wind,
        and it drives me NUTS!!!

  13. Hey O.S good choice in eating at Ruth Cris. Me and my wife are eating at one in Aruba tonight.( wedding anniversary ) Oh and it’s 85 and sunny. Down here may have to go for a dip to cool off.

  14. Good afternoon!! Little chilly but that’s April in New England, by Friday it’ll be in the mid 60’s. We will be in Plainville/Wrentham tomorrow 🙂

  15. The date that seems to also be consistent for something wintry is April 5th into the 6th.

    A small northwest to southeast traveling system, I suppose similar to the one last night that missed us. Perhaps this one wont miss.

  17. Longest melt I can ever remember. I would say at least another 3-7 days until most of the snow in my yard is gone. Other than late season storms, I cannot remember having this much snow on the ground on April 1. And while the temp hit 47 today, I was outside, and the wind made it feel a lot cooler.

    2. I had more snow on the ground than this 18 years ago today: 30 inches in fact. 🙂

      1. Agree, but what we are talking about is other than a snow event
        dumping on 4/1 or the day before. We mean remaining Winter
        snow on the ground. 😀 😀

  19. Snow? Lol it’s been bare ground for about a week now. Other then some man made snow left in some isolated spots,,, its bare.

  20. my yard 95% covered. 3-12″ average maybe deeper in a drift spot here or there. Edge of driveway is still 2′.

    1. Uxbridge clients are saying that too, not down here though, it’s all bare from Boston southward, of course except some isolated areas. we will be there late next week. 🙂

      2. This week we are still unable to service most clients including areas south of Boston due to snow on the turf and in the mulch beds.
        Some of these south of Boston areas include:
        Roslindale
        Braintree
        Cohasset
        Scituate
        Norwell
        Rockland
        Norfolk
        Middleboro
        Plymouth

        Sure, If you drive down the highway south of Boston it certainly looks like all snow has melted but as soon as you get off the highway and get into the secondary roads and into rural areas, there is still many areas that are not 100% bare. Certainly not isolated.

        I am going to guess that you do most of your work on large commercial properties in which majority of the turf has good sun exposure and less drifting.

        I am still curious on how you are applying these applications.

        1. You just have to ignore Charlie. Today he is reporting buds on the trees and gnats flying around his head. 🙂

  21. I’m noticing the trees budding, and along 295 you can see the red tint thickening. I had those knats that like to gather around your head in the 100’s during this afternoon. They r pesky

  22. Total snowfall to date @ Logan = 110.6″

    Next week is likely the last opportunity to add to that total. It is amazing it has been 18 years since the April Fool’s Day snowstorm (25.4″ @Logan). There was very little internet, very few cellphones, CD’s/DVD’s just coming out, no facebook, no T shutdowns during the storm, etc….those were the days. 😀

    1. You guys are just being silly. It cannot possibly be 18 years. Probably about six 🙂

  23. For me and its just an opinion, spring fealt like it made an appearance this afternoon for the first time this year ………. even more so than a couple of other days previously that may have been slightly milder.

    It dont know if it was the strong, nearly 100% sunshine or what, but it worked for me.

  24. Its 71F in Chicago and 82F in Minneapolis ……

    I recognize between cloud cover, some remaining snow cover, the chilling effect of the Great Lakes and the ocean south of us that some cooling should take place before the airmass gets here.

    However, that is impressive. It has to touch or slightly break 60F here Monday, doesnt it?

  26. Am mobile. Went by Putterham
    In brookline. Golf course is in sun.
    Still 85-90% snow covered.

    2. Sandy burr has all snow and will be under water soon but still had flags in. Can’t wait to hear managements excuse for bad conditions this year

  28. Any thoughts on a long duration pattern change around the 15th of April give or take? Warmer trend closer to average?

    1. My guess is closer to average …. But still slightly below normal, departures averaging 1F to 2F below average.

      As opposed to what I would call a western US ridge – eastern US trof pattern of the past 2 months, I’d propose a slight change upcoming to a northwest USA trof, central US ridge and a broad northeast US trof.

  30. The other thing, long term, that I think is a watcher ………..

    Many days already in late March and today, the first day of April, where 70s and 80s have been already common out west and in the central USA.

    Over the next 2 months, if there continues to be dry times in the central US, I think there may be some very hot central and northern Plains airmasses that build this summer. And usually, when New England gets that occasional 100F day in summer, its a result of a small piece of those hot airmasses that breaks off and moves through New England on a WNW surface wind flow.

  32. Maybe even the next 10 days. Might get a tiny peek here and there but the overall pattern looks miserable.

  33. Hadi is right. The pattern looks downright miserable starting Saturday.

    Well, Charlie is right about Attleboro/Providence area being less snow-covered than the Boston area. I can attest to that after a visit down south this afternoon. The difference between Boston and Providence is remarkable, actually. It was warmer there today. No biting wind. There was almost no snow in the city of Providence, and no ice on the waterways. Did it feel or look like spring? No. But, closer to spring than Boston. I think the differences will only get bigger the coming 10 days as Providence will likely be a good 5 degrees warmer on those days that there’s an onshore breeze.

    1. The line is about in Walpole, the local ponds are at about 60% ice cover, melting fast!!! Looking like a lot of rain Friday night, maybe a half inch 🙂

  34. In Katowitce, Poland today – and it is SNOWING! Who said it can’t snow in April? He he he.

  35. Waking to widespread 20’s on April 2nd. But a nice rebound today. Like I said enjoy it bc dreary and dismal weather is moving in and will be sticking around for a while.

  36. Good morning!!! Already in Wrentham, gonna be a beautiful day today, highs right around 60 degrees, nice stuff!! Enjoy the day folks 🙂

  37. Day off today for a routine medical test, but since my ride is not until 9AM, I shall update… stand by.

  38. Cloudy here in Sudbury. Hoping some sun comes out today. Looking forward to the brief warm up.

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