From Up To Down And Into A Rut

155 Comments

7:27AM

SUMMARY…
Well here we go, from a day that will make it feel like May, to a reminder of Winter, to what will feel like permanent March. That is Spring in New England. And here we go. In the warm sector today, warmest of course away from the South Coast where a southwest wind still comes off the chilly ocean water. Showers in most areas will hold off until day’s end, except near the cooler South Coast, the area that gets the worst of the deal today. Does someone hit 70 today? I think so…but it won’t be the South Coast. Get the idea here? No big changes to the expectations tonight into Saturday as a cold front settles into the region slowly, waits for a low pressure wave to ride along it enhancing rainfall, then pulls through and offshore more rapidly later Saturday morning as low pressure moves away. Cold air comes in but not fast enough to flip rain to snow before precipitation ends. Then comes the wind for Saturday afternoon and night, into Easter Sunday, along with the cold, but dry weather. Not a great trade off considering how cold it will feel. We’ll be dealing with wind chills Saturday night. Then…it looks like we get into one of those ruts, which in Springtime are usually not great ones for this part of the country. That will be the case this time, as we end up in a cold ocean flow with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south for many days next week. There is hope for a break somewhere in there but odds don’t favor it, so it won’t show up in this forecast for now…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast with episodes of showers. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny elsewhere. Clouds thicken all areas evening. Highs ranging from 45-50 South Coast to 65-70 west and north of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, along with embedded heavier showers. Lows 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain, ending southwest to northeast by midday. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-55 morning then falling through the 40s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty morning, diminishing afternoon.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of light rain/sleet/snow possible. Temperatures generally 33-45 throughout the period.

155 thoughts on “From Up To Down And Into A Rut”

    1. Yes, you did, Vicki. I can’t imagine Monday being anywhere near 60. But then again anything is possible.

      1. You are right about anything being possible. We didn’t think yesterday and today would be the temps they are. 😉

    2. I think our resident tree frog is seeing spring even if others are not. I do not remember hearing him this early in the season. Or perhaps it is not a tree frog but sure sounds like it.

    3. If I’m reading them correctly, the models do show the chance that the front could lift briefly north early next week, putting us back on the warm side ……

      Sometimes the models dont handle the weight of the very cold air well and the lighter, warmer air doesnt end up as far north as shown.

      So ….. Its a toss up, but in Spring and with how cold it is in Canada, I’m following TK and thinking the cold wins Monday.

  4. Thank you, TK. Don’t know how you manage to do these posts, and deal with personal health issues as well as a death in the family and several illnesses. Take care.

    I have several meetings today. Very busy. I must say I’m not pleased. I’m not a lazy person. But, we should have Good Friday off, especially when it coincides with the beginning of Passover. We have several holidays with virtually no meaning anymore (eg, Labor Day), yet on a day that has profound meaning in the Judeo-Christian tradition, most of us have to work.

    On a weather-related note, look for moderate and even heavy snow in the Presidential Range in the White Mountains of NH (above 3500 feet) all week, along with cold temperatures with wind chills below zero tomorrow night into Monday.

  6. Good morning.

    I’m going to enjoy today and not worry about what misery may be lurking around the
    corner. Snow took a BIG hit over night. I can see parts of my yard that had been hidden since the end of January. If it even gets anywhere near 70 today,
    it should be a stake in the heart of the snow, at least around my neighborhood. 😀

  8. Strengthening low pressure passing through overnight, bringing along with it very mild temps nearby …… I guess some instability parameters look favorable, I wonder if many may get a thunderstorm tonight, especially Massachusetts, RI and CT …….

    1. Yes, I think it is likely. I wouldn’t be surprised to be awakened by
      a clap of thunder.

      Just IMAGINE if this thing intensified just South of us while the
      COLD are was advecting in here. Luckily that is NOT the case. 😀

      Waiting for the 12Z runs for the latest thinking for next week, which as we
      know “could” be interesting.

  9. There was talk by some of our meteorologist here in CT there could be a rumble of thunder.
    Nothing strong or severe but not be surprised to hear that rumble of thunder tonight.
    There is a sign of warmer weather when were talking about thunderstorms.

  10. If we don’t get out of the RAIN and the clouds, NO ONE will reach 70 today, perhaps not even 60.

  11. Its complete opposite of what is was here yesterday when it was sunny and in the 60s. 60s never felt so good.
    It cloudy showers at times. At least its not chilly.

  13. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. I did not think Friday would get to 60 at Logan. I may be right for a chance. Of course, it still might get to 60. But, sure is cooler than expected.

    Antarctica got to 63F a couple of days ago (all-time record), but we’re still stuck in the 50s. Go figure.

    Kimmirut (Nunavut, Canada) is still very cold and has experienced numerous snowstorms in recent weeks. While we don’t get our cold air directly from that region, the fact that to our north and northwest in Canada it remains quite cold suggests we have a ways to go before we get consistent warmth.

    1. Good stuff Joshua. I enjoy following Kimmirut’s weather as well, frequently checking their webcam.

      That cold extends westward to central Canada and as you’ve pointed out, it’s significant for April.

      We may be colder than currently modeled, perhaps next Tuesday or Wednesday.

    1. That has been a somewhat consistent signal the last many days.

      Cloudy skies, chilly and maybe some light rain/snow is my interpretation. Lovely. 🙁

  17. That goes to show right there the strength of the sun this time of year. It comes out those temperatures will climb.
    Yesterday perfect example at Bradley where are records are kept for inland CT. Started with low of 26 then with bright sunshine got to a high of 65.

    1. I was surprised how mild it ended up yesterday given how chilly it was in the morning. I’m pretty sure it was in the mid 20s here as well, given the frozen dew on my car yesterday.

      1. It was in the upper 20s in Boston yesterday morning (early). Warmed up, especially by afternoon.

  19. Not a bad day for working outside, little cooler than anticipated to this point but still not bad at all, truck temp says 57 degrees mostly cloudy a few showers 🙂

  21. 63 here in Plymouth, NH, and climbing. Spectacular. Better enjoy it though, next week or so looks awful, will probably even feature some snow up here.

  22. Look at the CMC for the 10th. Yes, I know the CMC hasn’t performed all that well.
    But look at this:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

    How about a snow map? Most of this snow is from the above event, but there
    is a small amount from a couple of previous minor events.

    Here it is up through 18Z on the 10th with more to come. It’s not complete yet

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_asnow_neus_29.png

    1. Not happening.
      NWS says low to mid 60s. I’d go with low 60s and be grateful for that.

  25. Makes me chuckle when I see that CMC snow map. I mean come on really, 6+ inches of snow for greater Boston area by the 10th? I recall this map posting almost identicle numbers on our last 1-2 inch snow event.

    1. Understood, however, there are signs from the GFS and Euro and sooner
      or later the CMC is going to get one correct. Will it be this time?
      Probably not. It has been a joke this season. But, who knows. We’ll just watch and see.

      1. Don’t worry , it won’t happen, there just doing that to keep you guys talking, then there gonna say abracadabra boom, nothing 🙂

  27. In April 96 around the 7th or 8th there was accumulating snow in SNE including in Boston. I belive that had 7.3 inches of snow.
    I am not saying the CMC solution will happen but you can get accumulating snow in April here in SNE.

    1. I’ve seen 4 or 5 inches in Downtown Boston (Well at least on Huntington Ave. In the vicinity of Northeastern U.) on the 24th of April. It CAN
      happen. Not saying it will, just that it can.

    3. You’re right. There were two events in April of 1996. One small and the other medium-sized. I believe a Sox game was postponed as a result of the medium-sized snowstorm.

      I was living overseas in April of 1982, but my brother has told me several times that it was like an all-out powder blizzard, with daytime accumulating snow.

      1. April 6th, 1982. All out powder snow storm. Not sure It was officially a blizzard, but it was windy for sure with Temps in the 20s. I remember walking a mile from the T stop to home. It was brutal! 13 inches worth.

  28. Its 52 at my house. Something will need to change in a hurry for us to reach 60 here never mind near 70.

    1. 70 is not happening anywhere in the vicinity. 60 is in a few spots.

      Yesterday was really nice. I enjoyed it. Today’s dreary and mild.

    1. Maybe 8.5 at Logan, It was close to a foot in the neighborhoods of Boston
      and the burbs. I remember that one well.

    2. Was that 1970? I was living in Milton and do recall some cold weather in early spring that year. Of course, I was only 5, but already a weather freak.

    3. That’s the one I remember. I had just gotten my Mach I. We came out of the restaurant to a fair amount of snow on the ground. Thanks CF – I’ve been trying to figure out what year it was but knew it was right around there.

  30. That snow event in April 96 it was even snowing in the Bronx on the Yankees for their home opener.
    Was not alive for April 1982 for what was a powdry snow for April and temps in 20s.

  33. Next week may be blah but am liking the temperature forecast starting the following weekend 4/10 and beyond. Daytime highs may average 59ish. Welcoming pattern change (temperature wise) coming soon 🙂

  35. 18z NAM. Bad run. Don’t use.
    12z CMC. Bad run. Don’t use. Actually the CMC is just a bad model. Don’t use until further notice. It’s gotten no unsettled weather event right since pretty much never.

    1. What do you make of what Chris said above regarding a potential pattern change with normal-above normal temps commencing 04/10/15? Do you buy that?

      1. Since TK isn’t answering and I am the designated answerer. Yep we will have a week of temps in the high 50s ⛅️

      2. I don’t see an above normal temp pattern until after April 20 at the earliest.

  38. There is still some snow cover in sheltered areas up around here now but most of it is otherwise wiped out with some shrinking piles remaining. There are still some sizeable piles in the bigger parking lots, where it was not removed. Piles will shrink steadily tonight through tomorrow morning then the rate will slow slightly as the cold air returns later tomorrow.

    1. Ground still frozen. I’d say 30% cover here. North side still solid 1-1.5 feet. And the only mound I can’t get through is still the one in front of our gas grill.

  39. Hadi get your head outa your keista, it was meant for Tk, please look before you look silly 🙂

    3. I don’t look silly. What comment was it meant for? There is no comment from for about two hours. So not sure how anyone would know that was meant for that comment. You posted your comment right under Vicki’s just a little after her comment.

  40. For our family who celebrates Passover, Wishing you joy and many blessings
    at Passover and throughout the year!

  41. The way to tell what comments are replies to which can be determined by the indentation position. It’s a WordPress format.

  42. welcome to new england spring when NYC can be 20 to 30 degrees warmer while we are stuckin the 40s and 50s… spring is by far the worse season

  43. no snow but some snow piles here. pool area has a few inches of snow near the fence. Marshland, went out this morning. put out some home made buoys. the one 10 feet out is at 5 feet, 2 one is at around 13 and the one close to the main river is over 12.. my longest rope is 12 and it went fully under so not accurate number with that

  44. Had some torrential rain, thunder and lightning in Coventry CT a few moments ago. Sitting at 47 degrees. Amazingly still a snow cover in the backyard which is mostly shaded.

  46. The cluster of thunderstorms was right under the surface low. Now it’s onto the wind and the clearing/drying process today. The cold comes a bit later…

  47. I’m officially in the no more accumulating snow camp until november. Every promising chance the past couple weeks has not come to fruition including this weekend.

    1. Small snow “chances” may be there, but accumulating snows finally are over until the fall.

    2. I like seeing the links and potential. But I gave up believing them a few potentials ago. I am absolutely not saying that we cannot have accumulating snow. I have seen it too many times to know that would be foolish.

      1. Last year I called off accumulating snow back in March and turned out to be correct. I am much later with calling that off this year because of the current set up. However, I too am in the official no snow camp until next fall.

        2. Arod. I am not in no snow camp. I am in whatever Mother Nature does is beautiful. And I definitely think calling off snow is no more than luck. We don’t quite have that ability yet 🙂

    3. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Never waver from that fact. 🙂

  48. Even the best meteorologist would not declare accumulating snow risks done at this stage of the game. We know better. 🙂

      1. Nah. You’re just not a meteorologist and you’re not held nearly as accountable for your forecasts. 🙂

  49. Will be updating in a short while…

    -Wind takes over, drying out today.
    -Cold arrives tonight.
    -Cold Easter, clouds return.
    -You may be scraping a layer of snow off your car Monday morning, so be ready for that.
    -Unsettled every day next week, including next weekend.

  50. Good morning.

    Although Nothing too exciting is showing on models, we must remain vigilant until
    this pattern changes. Tk now saying around the 20th.

    Mixed signals regarding tomorrow night into Monday. Gfs wants to give us a few
    inches of snow. Although not a big storm by any stretch, if it were to happen, a REMINDER, that SNOW can still occur. We shall see. Not convinced yet. NAM
    show much less.

    GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015040406/gfs_asnow_neus_11.png

    NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015040406/gfs_asnow_neus_11.png

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040400/gem_asnow_neus_14.png

    2. I think it will be after the 20th at this stage of the game. Always lean later than GFS op run indicates. And even that run is still collapsing back into a bit of an omega setup late in its runs recently.

      I’m not buying a full scale change until I see a SE ridge locked in and more amplified, and that may not happen all too easily for a while. We may need to rely on “over the top” warmth from the northern jet stream as we get deeper into Spring.

        1. We’ll see. It may end up that way especially after the coming several days, if we don’t get a big turnaround before month’s end.

  52. Regarding remaining snow cover. Mostly GONE around these parts. Sunny locations
    are bare. Shady areas still have some partial patchy coverage. Big snow piles have
    taken a beating. My huge 12 foot pile has been reduced to about 2 feet. I can see
    most of my yard now. Some blades of fresh green grass are beginning to push their way up.

    AND the SUN just poked through the clouds.

    Still 49.3 now. Another night of continued melting.

    Not Windy at this time. 😀

      1. Well I know that and I know that you know that.
        I was throwing it out to the group. 😀 Sorry about that.

        Should have made it a quiz with multiple choice
        for the answers. 😀

        1. Unless they have a great memory they’d have used google. 🙂 I can delete my reply and see if anyone else knows it. 😀

          1. Nah. My Fault. As I said, I should have made it
            a quiz. I guess I’m not awake yet. 😀

  55. Eric Fisher tweet response: @LLprop Looks like we have a window for milder temps mid-month (around next weekend).

    I’ll stick to my theory of beginning temp pattern change beginning sometime next weekend. Maybe slight delay until following early week. I think that is when we see milder temps outweighing the cooler temps. Not saying it’s going to be above normal but rather seasonable. Much more consistent after the 20th.

  56. We heard a few booms of thunder around 5:30 a.m. today w/some brief heavy rain. Sun came out about 1/2 hr. ago and with that the wind has picked up.

    There is certainly more bare ground here in Sudbury and some crocuses are struggling to stay alive in our garden. But there is still plenty of snow and snow banks around here. And I am one of the believers that we could still get an accumulative snow in the next few wks.

    Happy Easter and Happy Passover to all who celebrate! 🙂

    1. Remember it was reported to have the F word changed and of course we all listened for where it would be because we never heard that word used……how times have changed

      1. Oh yeah we listened for that and other no-nos as well.
        We heard what we wanted to hear. 😀

  61. The 12Z NAM looked for awhile like it wanted to lay down 3-4 inches of snow tomorrow night. But, No worries with this run. Let’s see what the GFS has to say.

  62. Just posted an updated forecast without a discussion.

    I’m off to the wake and funeral for my aunt now. It will be a small gathering. Mom cannot go because she has come down with yet another stomach bug probably from the visiting nurses etc. that come for my Dad. So back to take care of them this afternoon. May postpone Easter dinner until next Sunday. I take off for Florida a few days after that!

    March madness has continued into April. 😉

    1. Gastroenteritis has been vicious this season and lasting much longer than your standard 24-48 hours.

      1. I can verify that. We have norovirus and it is appearing to end at 24-48 and then returning. And it is violent. Mac and I are barricaded in back of house with no contact with anyone on front side. It is the last thing he needs between chemo, pleurex drain and back.

  63. TK so so sorry your mom has the stomach bug yet again. What a horribly difficult time for all of you.

    We have postponed Easter until next week also. We can all celebrate together 🙂

    Thinking of you also as you celebrate your aunts and godmothers life.

  67. Wind is really gusty here. Still think we might get an inch no two tomorrow night. Clearly it will melt fast but I am not ruling it out yet.

    In regards to pattern change I am all for it.

    Question in regards to my new lawn that I did last year. It did really well but what should I lay down now? Fertilizer, grass seed in the the patches that didn’t well? Anything else? Thanks

    1. Whatever you do Hadi, don’t get crazy raking and de-thacthing. You’ll open up your lawn to crabgrass. Insofar as your questions, yes. I would wait maybe another week or two for the ground to warm a little more or your seed will just rot.

  68. The 24 hour bug is not always 24 hours, as many of us know.

    My brothers and I will make a final decision along with Mom about Easter being tomorrow or next weekend. I’m leaning toward next weekend. As traditional as I am, I’d much rather wait until Mom is recovered. Even if she’s feeling “better” tomorrow nobody is ready to just dive back into a big dinner. She’ll need time. And the bonus of having it next Sunday is that we may be able to add a few family members that could not make tomorrow. 🙂

    1. I told a friend that I was sad having to postpone. She said we celebrate the resurrection every day so one week from now is perfect too.

      I agree there is no limit on bugs life but this one is definitely not playing by any rules. Macs doctors have all mentioned that they haven’t seen anything quite like it for norovirus.

    1. Hehehehe. Mine are bloomed and nearly past. Daffodils are tall but won’t bloom for a week or so. Much more in line with years of the past. They have been far earlier for a decade now

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